30 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar dulls as neutral rate approaches.
US dollar was traded sideways against a basket of six major peers on Thursday as Federal Reserve meeting minutes did little to evoke larger market momentum. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.02% to 96.62. According to the meeting minutes from November’s meeting, Fed officials continued to expect that further gradual rate hike would be consistent with sustained expansion of the economy. However, latest speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week has dialed down market expectation for more rate hikes in the future as he deemed the current interest rate range to be “nearing” a neutral rate level. In addition to that, downbeat US economic data which were released recently has also signaled for an economic activity cooling for months to come, further easing investor’s optimism for more monetary policy tightening from the US. On the other hand, pound sterling was pressed down by bearish market as investor’s fret for the outcome of UK Parliament’s vote for Brexit deal on December 11th. The vote would market an important milestone in two years of negotiation between UK and EU and it will determine whether UK will exit with a “soft” or “hard” Brexit approach. As such, pair of GBP/USD was down 0.02% to 1.2779.
On the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.10% to $51.19 per barrel. Oil price received some bullish support after Russia reportedly reached a consensus with OPEC that an output reduction is necessary and they will continue to analyze the size and timing of the cuts. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.04% to $1,223.99 a troy ounce as investor’s risk appetite returns for more risky assets such as bonds and stocks.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) | 0.1% | 0.4% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 2.2% | 2.1% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Nov) | 58.4 | 58.6 | – |
| 02:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 885 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GPBUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at 1.2770. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2770.
Resistance level: 1.2835, 1.2895
Support level: 1.2770, 1.2690
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following prior rebound from the bottom level of the narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 113.30.
Resistance level: 113.70, 113.85
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the moving average line. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 0.7300.
Resistance level: 0.7340, 0.7370
Support level: 0.7300, 0.7265
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded flat following prior retrace from the resistance level near 0.6890. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6830, 0.6780
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a range while currently testing at the top level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level of the range.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3210
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9930
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the moving average line. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 52.00, 53.90
Support level: 50.25, 49.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the threshold of 1228.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1220.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.25
Support level: 1220.00, 1215.95