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31 January 2023                 Afternoon Session Analysis

The Aussie dollar depreciated after Dec retail sales released

The Aussie dollar traded as one of the major currencies globally, depreciated after a worsening retail sales report was released. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales in December slumped to -3.9% from the prior month’s 1.4%. The reading clearly indicated that slowing down of consumer spending in December, since the Australian consumer price index spike to 30 year high Household spending power constrained by the higher cost of living, combined with the heavy holiday shopping seen in last month’s results, made December’s reading drop to negative. The ABS noted in a release that many consumers had responded to inflation pressure and took advantage of promotion activity in November to save spending. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its hawkish tone in its communique to bring the inflation rate back to the target level of 2% to 3%. However, it reiterated that the future monetary policy decision will depend on data and the labor market outlook. According to Focus Economics, RBA will raise their interest rate by 25 bp at the next upcoming meeting on 7th February 2023. As of writing, the Aussie dollar, depreciated from -0.205 to $0.7046.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price was depreciated -0.12% to $77.81 per barrel as of writing amid investor caution over an upcoming FOMC meeting and OPE decision on production.  Besides, the gold price appreciated 0.13% to $1925.40 per troy ounce as investors expect a slowing interest rate hike for the dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:55                 German Unemployment Change (Jan) -13k 5k
21:00 German CPI (YoY) 8.6% 9.2%
21:30                 GDP (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% 0.1%
23:00                 CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) 108.3 109.0

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the index extends its gains toward resistance level at 103.00.

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.55

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2440.

Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the higher level.

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains if successfully breakout the resistance level.

Resistance level: 130.25, 132.30

Support level: 128.00, 126.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 0.7120. However, MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7040, 0.6950

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6495. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6560

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3330. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3250.

Resistance level: 1.3330,1.3420

Support level: 1.3250, 1.3175

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following a prior retracement from a higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9195.

Resistance level: 0.9240, 0.9315

Support level: 0.9195, 0.9140

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 81.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 76.05.

Resistance level: 81.60, 85.25

Support level: 76.05, 70.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1898.65.

Resistance level: 1953.40, 1996.80

Support level: 1898.65, 1845.80