31 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Sterling unenthusiastic with May’s performance.
Great British Pound received tremendous selling pressure on Wednesday after the release of latest opinion poll which shows that the conservatives are losing their ground. Pair of GBP/USD was down 0.30% to $1.2820 this morning. A report from YouGov which utilizes constituency-by-constituency modelling illustrates that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives Party may risk falling short of winning a majority number of seats in parliament during next month’s national election on June 8th. The narrowing in support for May’s party and its opponent has further deterred overall confidence among investors where a downfall of May in the election could spark higher political and economic uncertainty prior to their exit from the EU. In the other region, greenback rebounds from overnight’s slump as market players digests US consumer spending data which has recorded its biggest increase in four months during April, suggesting a firm domestic demand that would allow the Federal Reserve to raise their interest rates. The dollar index was up 0.15% and last quoted at 97.27 against six major peers.
As for commodities, crude oil price edges lower after shedding 0.40% to $49.46 while investors look forward for US weekly crude inventory estimates due tomorrow morning. Likewise, gold price depreciates by 0.10% to $1,260.85 despite a rebound in US dollar while ongoing geopolitical concern in Europe limits its downside.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
07:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (May) | 51.2 | 51.0 | 51.2 |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) | 54.0 | – | 54.5 |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (May) | -15K | -15K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Net Lending to Individuals | 4.7B | 4.5B | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.9% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Mar) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (May) | 58.3 | 57.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.8% | 0.5% | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -1.500M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remained traded within the range of 1.2790 and 1.2885 while recently rebounded from the bottom level of the range. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.2820 would suggest GBPUSD to move further upwards in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2850, 1.2885, 1.2910
Support level: 1.2790, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.1170. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to illustrate rebound signal from the oversold region suggests EURUSD to be traded higher towards the target of resistance level at 1.1190.
Resistance level: 1.1190, 1.1205
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1145
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY continued to hover near the support level of 110.60, suggesting a strong support down ahead. A rebound from this level would suggest an extension of technical retracement and to be traded higher in short-term. Otherwise, as MACD histogram continues to illustrate substantial downward signal, a closure below the level of 110.60 would suggest USDJPY to extend is downward momentum.
Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40
Support level: 110.60, 108.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remained traded within a narrowing triangle while recently retraced from the top level of the triangle. It is suggested to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the triangle. Long-term trend direction could only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 49.60, 50.00
Support level: 49.00, 48.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained within an upward channel following prior retracement near the resistance level of 1271.00. A closure below the 60-moving average line (green) would suggest gold price to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1253.80.
Resistance level: 1263.00, 1271.00
Support level: 1253.80, 1246.00