31 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar sags in anticipation of policy outlook.
US dollar extended its back leg on Monday while Euro and Pound Sterling edged higher, in anticipation over a number of central bank meetings scheduled later this week. The dollar index plunged 0.34%, last quoted around 94.08 during early Asian trading session. At present, investors are pondering towards a series of central bank policy decision scheduled later in the week which could provide further direction for its respective currencies. While the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce their decision on Thursday, no rate hike from the central bank is expected for this month. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are currently pricing in at an 87.8% chance for an interest rate hike during September instead. On the contrary, losses on the greenback remains limited after Pending Home Sales reportedly rose 0.9%, beating economist forecast for a rise of up to 0.4% for the month of June. Against other major peers, pair of EUR/USD tacks up 0.23% to $1.1708 while Pound Sterling rose 0.22% to $1.3135 against the US dollar.
As for commodities, crude oil price settled up 0.03% to $70.02 per barrel while gains remain limited as investors place higher concern over global crude supply which continues may continue to rise. On the other hand, gold price tacks up 0.06% to $1,222.05 a troy ounce over the backdrop of a weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Events
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Events
11:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
11:00 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 51.5 | 51.4 | – |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 55.0 | 55.0 | – |
| 11:00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) | -15K | -10K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.8% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 126.4 | 126.5 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3150. MACD which illustrate the formation bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the mini upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3150
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3070
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1700. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1720, 1.1740
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1685
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of support level near 110.70.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.25
Support level: 110.70, 110.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while recently rebounded from the support level near 69.80. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 70.30, 70.75
Support level: 69.80, 69.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the upper level. Due to the lack of signal from recent price action and MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal has emerged before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1226.50, 1230.00
Support level: 1222.00, 1219.00