31 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Inflation remained subdued, casts doubts over Fed.
Greenback pared some losses against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday after data showed subdued inflation performance ahead of Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The dollar index was down by 0.10% while last quoted at 94.35. Referring to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – Core PCE Price Index came in at only 1.3% for the year through September, well below Fed’s target of 2%. Recent continuous sluggishness on inflationary front has cast doubts over Fed’s ability to raise interest rates more rapidly due to ongoing pessimistic trend. However, losses on the greenback remains limited after consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-third of US economic activity rose 1% versus 0.8% last month. In the other region, EUR/USD received some selling pressure during Asian trading hours after shedding 0.03% to $1.1646. The single common currency remained in the spotlight of bearish market following geopolitical crisis in Spain over Catalonia’s independence referendum which lead Madrid to take direct control of the region.
In the commodities front, crude oil price inches lower by 0.18% to $54.05 per barrel as investors began to cash in their profits due to prior bullish advance. The commodity still remained supported following higher optimism over OPEC to extend their output cut agreement until end of next year. Otherwise, gold price gained by 0.04% to $1,276.56 amid recent weakness in the US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day EUR Germany – Reformation Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
03:30 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:00 | NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Oct) | 0.0 | – | -10.1 |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 52.4 | 52.0 | 51.6 |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 9.1% | 9.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Aug) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 119.8 | 121.0 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.591M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the resistance level of 1.3220. A failure to close above this level would suggest the pair to extend its losses, in tandem with the ongoing downward channel trend thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3115, 1.3020
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the 20-MA line (red) at the target of 1.1665. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggest the pair to retreats and advance towards the direction of support level at 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1655, 1.1720
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1530
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the bottom level of upward wedge while currently testing at the support level of 113.00. Both moving average line which continues to narrow downwards suggest an ongoing bearish bias. Thus, a close below the target of 113.00 would suggest the pair to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.30
Support level: 113.00, 112.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price were traded in an uptrend while currently consolidating near the resistance level of 54.20. Both MA line which continues to expand upwards suggest further upside bias and a break above the target of 54.20 would provide further confirmation.
Resistance level: 54.20, 54.75
Support level: 53.50, 52.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the top level. Retracement from the top level would suggest the gold price to be traded lower, in tandem with the current downward channel trend.
Resistance level: 1276.80, 1281.00
Support level: 1269.00, 1263.00