31 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback at yearly high as consumer confidence climbs.
Greenback stands tall at its highest level of the year after US Consumer Confidence data exceed investors’ expectations for last month. The dollar index was up 0.03% to 96.70, a shy away from its yearly high of 96.86. According to Conference Board, US Consumer Confidence rose to 137.9 in October from 135.3 in September, exceeding economist forecast for a slump to 136.0. The reading was at its highest level in 18 years or since September 2000. Appreciating consumer confidence has further reaffirmed investors expectation for a resilient economic performance as it would spur higher personal spending and inflationary pressure. In addition, the greenback received additional bullish support after pound sterling extended its losses to a 10-week low. Sterling marched on with its backfoot after credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s warned that the UK could suffer long recession If it cut off ties with EU without securing a trade deal. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD was flat at 1.2705.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.15% to $66.37 per barrel. The commodity price dipped in red since yesterday after International Energy Agency Fatih Birol warned that high oil prices could hurt consumers and dent fuel demand during slowing global economic activity. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.08% to $1,222.09 a troy ounce following higher demand for risky assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
04:15 (1st) CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 2.1% | 2.1% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) | 230K | 189K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | – | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Oct) | 60.4 | 60.3 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 6.346M | 4.110M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the upper levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2690.
Resistance level: 1.2805, 1.2895
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2495
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after receiving bearish pressure from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1330.
Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1330, 1.1240
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance of 112.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 113.30.
Resistance level: 113.30, 113.85
Support level: 112.95, 112.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a rising wedge while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the bottom level of the wedge.
Resistance level: 0.7080, 0.7100
Support level: 0.7055, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.6575. MACD which begin to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6610
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6520
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3010
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains while currently testing at the resistance level of 1.0055. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after successfully breaking the target of 1.0055.
Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0095
Support level: 1.0025, 0.9960
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending triangle formation. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the strong support near 66.10.
Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55
Support level: 66.10, 64.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of the ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below 1220.25.
Resistance level: 1229.05, 1237.00
Support level: 1220.25, 1213.15