Daily Analysis

9 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Dollar hold gains as market awaits further signal from trade talk.

The dollar index which measured against a basket of six major currency pair have managed to hold its ground as investors are currently looking for further developments from trade talk to drive market sentiment. On data wise, US PPI have come in at -0.3% which is weaker than market expectation of 0.1%. However, the weak data doesn’t deter the market as investors continue to remain in a holding pattern. Still, the upside potential for the greenback may be short-lived as recent developments from U.S and China may have dimmed market hopes for a trade deal. Investors still remain in focus for further developments to attain confirmation for the greenback sentiment. Meanwhile, GBP/USD extend its losses following the increasing risk of Brexit. According to recent reports, Prime Minister UK Boris Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Markel have talk to each other in a private phone call. No 10 cited that Merkel stated there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is ‘overwhelmingly unlikely’. The remarks have further increase the risk of no deal Brexit, therefore triggering further pressure for the pound. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.73 while GBP/USD fell 0.15% to 1.2215.

As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.30% to $52.45 per barrel as of writing following the increase of crude oil inventories. According to the data from API, U.S crude stockpiles rose by 4.1 million last week. At the same time, the uncertainty in trade talk between U.S and China also weigh in the market sentiment. Next, gold price rose 0.10% to $1505.35 a troy ounce at the time of writing following risk-off appetite which boosted the appeal for safe haven commodity.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

2.00                        USD                                        FOMC Meeting Minutes

(10th Oct)

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 98.85. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 98.60.

Resistance level: 98.85, 99.20

Support level: 98.60, 98.20

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2325. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2170.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2395

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2020

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0965. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.0960.

Resistance level: 1.1125, 1.1300

Support level: 1.0960, 1.0855

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 107.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 107.00.

Resistance level: 107.00, 107.80

Support level: 106.65, 106.20

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6745.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6695, 0.6635

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the channel’s bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6325.

Resistance level: 0.6325, 0.6365

Support level: 0.6285, 0.6255

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3335. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3275.

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3275, 1.3210

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9945. MACD which illustrate downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9885.

Resistance level: 0.9945, 1.0005

Support level: 0.9885, 0.9810

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 51.85. MACD which illustrate upward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher toward the direction of 53.55.

Resistance level: 53.55, 54.65

Support level: 51.85, 51.15

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1504.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1520.25.

Resistance level: 1520.25, 1535.25

Support level: 1504.00, 1485.65

8 October 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen slump as hope for resolution of trade-war.

Japanese Yen slump as risk ebbed on caution about the hope of the resolution of the trade war during the U.S. and China trade talk, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward riskier asset. According to Bloomberg 30 Chinese officials led by Vice-Minister of Finance Liao Min entered the US Trade Representative’s office on Monday morning for two days of negotiation. In fact, the White House officially confirmed that the high-level talks, involving Chinese Vice Premier Liu he, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasure Secretary Steven Mnuchin, would begin on Thursday. As the trade war events has already heavy blow to the American economy and Chinese economy, investors predicted the problem of trade-war would more likely to be solved in order to avoid the economy from further slowdown. In addition, Japanese Yen came under pressure as recent bleak Japanese data was released. According to Statistics Bureau, Japan Household Spending for the month of September came in at 2.4%, lower than the economy forecast at 2.8%. On the other hand, Aussie slump amid poor business confidence index in Australia. National Australia Bank Business Confidence came in at 0, prior to 1. However, since China economy have a significant impact on the Aussie, investors would continue to scrutinize the trade-talk updates to gauge the future movement of the pair. As of writing, USD/JPY rose 0.10% to 107.37 and AUD/USD surged 0.27% to 0.6747.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surge 0.61% to $53.09 per barrel after the cost of shipping for crude oil from Middle East to north Asia rose 19%, said Reuters. On the other hand, gold price slump 0.14% to 1490.79 per troy ounces due to stronger greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:50 (9^th)             USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 98.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 99.20.

Resistance level: 99.20, 99.70

Support level: 98.60, 98.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2325. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2170.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2515

Support level: 1.2165, 1.2020

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trend line. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 1.1125, 1.1300

Support level: 1.0965, 1.0855

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout at 107.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 107.80.

Resistance level: 107.80, 108.45

Support level: 107.00, 106.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6745.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6695, 0.6635

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6285. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6325.

Resistance level: 0.6325, 0.6365

Support level: 0.6285, 0.6255

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3335. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3275.

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3275, 1.3210

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.9945. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 1.0005.

Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0050

Support level: 0.9945, 0.9885

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher after successfully breakout above the 20 moving average line (Red).

Resistance level: 53.55, 54.65

Support level: 51.85, 51.15

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1504.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1485.65.

Resistance level: 1504.00, 1520.25

Support level: 1485.65, 1460.00

8 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Could US and China ends trade war?

US dollar appreciated against other major currencies on Monday while investors scrutinize the outcome of US-China trade talk. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.17% to 98.62 during Asian trading session. Overall, investors held off from initiating larger sum of trades since yesterday as high-level trade talks begins in Washington. A few topics that were outlined for discussion includes forced technology transfers, intellectual property rights and non-tariff barriers. However, gains on the US dollar were limited as speculation arises over Beijing’s commitment towards Washington requests. Some analysts postulate that with current risk of impeachment upon President Donald Trump, China may deter from making any long-term arrangements with the US for the short-term. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.0971. Euro came under pressure after German Factory Orders slumped by -0.6%, missing economists’ forecast of -0.3%. The data spurred speculation upon European Central Bank to continuously loosen their monetary policy in order to support EU zone economy.

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.17% to $52.89 per barrel. Oil price managed to rebound from its lower levels after US announced their decision to stop protecting anti-regime Kurdish rebels in Syria. This could spark higher geopolitical risk and clashes in the Middle East which may bring chances to a possible halt of oil production. On the contrary, gold price slumped 0.06% to $1,492.25 a troy ounce due to recovery in market sentiment.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:50 (9^th)             USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 98.65. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the resistance near 98.65.

Resistance level: 98.65, 99.00

Support level: 98.40, 98.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.2275. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2275.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2275, 1.2170

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.0965. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.0965.

Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0965, 1.0930

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout at 107.05. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 107.40.

Resistance level: 107.40, 108.10

Support level: 107.05, 106.55

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior close below 0.6745. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6705.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6800

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6670

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6360

Support level: 0.6250, 0.6215

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below 1.3315. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3340

Support level: 1.3280, 1.3255

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.9925. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010

Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 53.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher after closing above 53.00.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1484.05.

Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40

Support level: 1484.05, 1440.00

7 October 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen surge as risk-off sentiment.

Japanese Yen gained as risk increase on caution about the tension for U.S. and China would arise during their trade talk, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward safe-haven asset. Chinese officials are signalling that they are increasingly reluctant to agree to a broad trade deal pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump, said Bloomberg. In addition, the bleak data in U.S. last week raised doubts on the assumption on the Fed would cut rates to boost the economy growth in the U.S. However, such worries eased slightly after U.S. September non-farm payrolls data on last Friday came in fairly strong and the jobless rate fell to near a 50-year low. Yet, sentiment about the dollar is complicated by the uncertain U.S. political outlook, as Trump faces an impeachment inquiry in the U.S. House of Representatives, which further increase geopolitics risk in U.S. and sparked the demand for Japanese Yen. On the other hand, AUD/USD slump as bleak data released on last Friday. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australia Retail Sales came in at 0.4% for the month of September, lower than the economy expectation of 0.5%. Such poor data would signal a negative prospect for the economy performance in Australia, which further provide a bearish support to the AUD/USD. As of writing, USD/JPY slump 0.12% to 106.79 and AUD/USD depreciated by 0.22% to 0.6751.

In the commodities market, crude oil price slump 0.28% to $52.64 per barrel amid to fear on global economic slowdown. However, investors would scrutinize the progress in the trade talks within this week on the hope of ending U.S.- China trade war. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.16% to 1507.07 per troy ounces as weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:00                     USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

(8^th October)

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 98.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward resistance level at 98.60.

Resistance level: 98.60, 98.75

Support level: 98.35, 98.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2340. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2290.

Resistance level: 1.2340, 1.2375

Support level: 1.2290, 1.2245

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0985. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.0965.

Resistance level: 1.0985, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0965, 1.0940

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 106.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 106.90.

Resistance level: 106.90, 107.15

Support level: 106.70,106.50.

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6765. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6740.

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6740, 0.6715

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the previous support level at 0.6315. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward support level at 0.6290.

Resistance level: 0.6315, 0.6315

Support level: 0.6290, 0.6275

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from support level at 1.3305. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-run as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3305, 1.3275

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9935. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward resistance level at 0.9965.

Resistance level: 0.9965, 0.9985

Support level: 0.9935, 0.9920

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded flat near the resistance level at 52.85. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 52.85, 53.25

Support level: 52.25, 51.65

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 1509.45. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1497.75.

Resistance level: 1509.45, 1521.85

Support level: 1497.75, 1490.10

7 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Dollar lingered amid mixed data.

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies hovered near 98.50 following mixed economic data been announced on last Friday. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data came in at 136K, lower than economist forecast and previous reading of 136K and 168K respectively while indicating US labor market has weaken. However, bearish momentum exerted from downbeat NFP data limited by optimistic unemployment rate in US where the data showed a reading of 3.5%, missing the economist forecast and previous reading at 3.7%. A significant drop in US unemployment rate has recorded a 50 years low level while easing the fears about a possible recession amid trade war between US and China, while showing US economy is in the midst of recovery stage. On the other hand, the pair of USD/CAD rose amid poor Canada Ivey PMI data triggered bearish momentum and continue weighted on Canadian dollar. According to the data, Canada Ivey PMI came in at 48.7, far weaker than last month reading at 60.6. The pace of economic activity in Canada slowed sharply which seemingly caused by the recent significant drop in crude oil price as Canada highly dependent on exporting crude oil. As of writing, dollar index inched down 0.01% to 98.45 and USD/CAD quoted up 0.03% to 1.3320.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price dropped 0.64% to $52.60 per barrel amid investor fearing over the global growth slowdown while pegging their hopes on positive progress in US trade talk which will be held on end of this week. On the other hand, gold price appreciated by 0.20% to $1507.80 per troy ounces amid weakening of greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:00                     USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

(8^th October)

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 98.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 98.35.

Resistance level: 98.75, 99.20

Support level: 98.35, 97.70
 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.2390. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 1.2235.

Resistance level: 1.2390, 1.2500

Support level: 1.2235, 1.2075

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.0965. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the current support level 1.0965.

Resistance level: 1.1020, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0965, 1.0915

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the resistance level 107.00. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 107.00, 107.55

Support level: 106.45, 105.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6690

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6325. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6270.

Resistance level: 0.6325, 0.6355

Support level: 0.6270, 0.6235

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3300. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3365, 1.3425

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3235

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.9940. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.0005.

Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0095

Support level: 0.9940, 0.9855

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price traded flat near the resistance level. However, MACD which indicate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower towards the support level 50.50.

Resistance level: 53.00, 55.30

Support level: 50.50, 48.35

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the resistance level 1513.35. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1487.35.

Resistance level: 1513.35, 1535.10

Support level: 1487.35, 1452.15

4 October 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro surged despite bleak data.

EUR/USD surge despite bleak economic data from the EU zone from yesterday. According to Markit Economics, Germany Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the month of August came in at 51.4, lower than economist forecast for a reading of 52.5. In fact, Eurozone Markit Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) both came in below the market expectations. These poor sentiments should signal a bad economic prospect for Europe zone amid to the Brexit issues and increase the incentive for the European Central Bank to cut rate in future in order to stimulate the economy growth. However, the demand for Euro sparked higher as the hope for soft-Brexit arises for the speculators after Boris Johnson prepared a new proposal for a Brexit deal to European Union despite EU is still unconvinced to the plan.  On the other hand, Japanese Yen surged as the uncertainty in the world economy arise after bleak data in Europe Zone and U.S. was released.  However, investors would continually to scrutinize the Nonfarm payroll data tonight to gauge the future direction of the safe-haven asset. As of writing, EUR/USD rose 0.12% to 1.0975 and USD/JPY slump 0.11% to 106.75.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price rose 0.71% to $52.63 per barrel despite Saudi Arabia said it has fully restored oil output after recent attacks. On the other hand, gold price appreciated by 0.27% to $1508.99 per troy ounces amid to weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 98.55. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 98.20.

Resistance level: 99.20, 99.70

Support level: 98.20, 97.70

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2325. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 1.2515.

Resistance level: 1.2515, 1.2665

Support level: 1.2325, 1.2165

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior close above 1.0965. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1125.

Resistance level: 1.1125, 1.1300

Support level: 1.0965, 1.0855

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 107.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term technical correction.

Resistance level: 107.00, 107.80

Support level: 106.65, 106.20

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 0.6750. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6750.

Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6695, 0.6635

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6295. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 0.6360.

Resistance level: 0.6360, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6295, 0.6255

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the channel’s top level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the channel top level at 1.3335.

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3020

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which begins to form a golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0005.

Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0050

Support level: 0.9945, 0.9885

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 51.95. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 53.25.

Resistance level: 53.25, 54.65

Support level: 51.95, 51.15

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1520.25.

Resistance level: 1520.25, 1535.25

Support level: 1504.00, 1485.65

4 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar slumps further, recession right up ahead?

US dollar slumped further on Thursday evening following bearish economic data from the region which spurs higher concerns over possible economic recession. According to Institute for Supply Management (ISM), its Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of September depreciates from 56.4 to 52.6, at the same time missing forecast of 55.0. As non-manufacturing sector such as services largely contribute to US economy at around 70% of its Gross Domestic Product, a slump in its PMI has spurred higher concerns that Federal Reserve may cut its interest rates further in the future. Likewise, sentiment towards the greenback remains bleak after its recent Initial Jobless Claims data shows higher jobless count at 219,000 individuals, slightly higher than forecast of 215,000 individuals. On the other hand, pound sterling received tremendous selloff pressure on yesterday after EU rejected Brexit draft proposed by the UK. According to Chief EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, he commented that some clause in the draft which includes Ireland border controls are irrelevant and he gives UK PM Boris Johnson a week to resubmit a new Brexit draft. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.13% to 98.58 while pair of GBP/USD appreciates by 0.09% to 1.2338.

In the commodities market, crude oil price recoup its losses by 0.13% to $52.36 per barrel. However, gains on the oil prices remains limited as ongoing trade war in between US and China may lead to global economic recession that could reduce oil demand in the long-run. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.16% to $1,507.43 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 98.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 98.65, 99.00

Support level: 98.40, 98.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.2400. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2325.

Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2515

Support level: 1.2325, 1.2260

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior close above 1.0965. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0965, 1.0930

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 106.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term technical correction.

Resistance level: 107.05, 107.60

Support level: 106.55, 106.15

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 0.6745. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6745.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6800

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6670

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6310.

Resistance level: 0.6310, 0.6360

Support level: 0.6250, 0.6215

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the resistance of 1.3340. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3375

Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in mid-term.

Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0105

Support level: 0.9970, 0.9925

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near 1511.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggests its price to extend its gains after breaking 1511.00 resistance level.

Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40

Support level: 1484.05, 1460.00

3 October 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Canadian dollar slips following USMCA uncertainty.

The Canadian dollar which traded against dollar have fell across the board as market react towards the comments from House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Following recent reports, Ms Pelosi have stated that argues that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement needs to “have enforceability that will make it real for America’s families and farmers,” The comments suggest more needs to be done to secure the USMCA and could force BoC to shifting its tune. The news instantly echoed throughout the market and causing investors starting to sell-off aggressively for the Canadian dollar. Besides that, ongoing decline of crude oil price also weighed on the Canadian dollar as Canada being one of the producers of crude oil in the world. Market will remain concentrate on upcoming data and further news to determine further direction. At the time of writing, USDCAD rose 0.03% to 1.3325 while the dollar index rose 0.02%.

In the commodities market, crude oil continue to extend its losses and fell 0.09% to $52.43 per barrel as of writing as weak economic data continue to weigh on the demand for crude oil. At the same time, larger than expected numbers in its crude stockpiles also remain pressuring the commodity. Next, gold price rose 0.11% to $1500.92 a troy ounce at the time of writing following global risk along with uncertainty with trade war and USMCA continue to fuel the demand for the safe-haven commodity.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

All Day                   EUR                                        German – Unification Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 98.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward resistance level at 98.75.

Resistance level: 98.75, 98.90

Support level: 98.60, 98.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 MA line (Red). However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2360, 1.2410

Support level: 1.2265, 1.2205

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the support level at 1.0920. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1.0965.

Resistance level: 1.0965, 1.1010

Support level: 1.0920, 1.0870

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following retracement from the previous support level at 107.45. MACD which illustrated bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 107.00

Resistance level: 107.45, 107.85

Support level: 107.00, 106.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the previous resistance level at 0.6695. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 0.6740.

Resistance level: 0.6740, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6695, 0.6680

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6275. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6275, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6255, 0.6235

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3300. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3335.

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3365

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the support level at 0.9965. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9985, 1.0005

Support level: 0.9965, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the previous resistance level at 52.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 53.25.

Resistance level: 53.25, 53.75

Support level: 52.70, 52.25

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following retracement from the resistance level at 1501.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower toward support level at 1484.35.

Resistance level: 1501.20, 1512.70

Support level: 1484.35, 1474.20

Risk Statement:
Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.

3 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

ADP data disappoints, will NFP saves US dollar?

Greenback extended its losses on Wednesday after private sector employment data shows slower pace of hiring for last month. According to ADP, its Nonfarm Employment Change data came in at 135,000 for the month of September, slightly below economists’ forecast of 140,000. The latest data is significantly lower than August’s reading of 157,000, a reading which saw a sharp downward revision from initially reported 195,000. Latest data from ADP spurred concerns in the market amid growing signs of diminishing economic momentum which may encourage Federal Reserve to adopt more monetary policy easing in the future. For the time being, investors will wait for the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report in order to attain more market signals. In the other region, pound sterling managed to rebound from its lower levels following progress in Brexit negotiation between UK and EU. Prior, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that more progress is being made on Brexit but warned that “a lot of work remains to be resolved”. More meetings will be conducted in between UK and EU for the next few days which may provide more signals to the market. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.11% to 98.64 while pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.01% to 1.2298.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.13% to $52.55 per barrel. On yesterday, oil price slumped further while hitting its lowest level in 2 months after EIA reported an increase in US oil inventories. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.01% to $1,500.51 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                       China – National Day

All Day                   EUR                       German – Unification Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior close below 98.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 98.40.

Resistance level: 98.65, 99.00

Support level: 98.40, 98.30

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.2325. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0930, 1.0870

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 107.05. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 107.05.

Resistance level: 107.60, 108.10

Support level: 107.05, 106.55

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6705. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6705.

Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6745

Support level: 0.6670, 0.6600

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6300. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in the mid-term.

Resistance level: 0.6300, 0.6435

Support level: 0.6035, 0.5790

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3340.

Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3375

Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.0010. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010

Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded flat near the resistance of 53.00. However, MACD which shows diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing at the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.

Resistance level: 1511.00, 1532.40

Support level: 1484.05, 1460.00

2 October 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Market sought for safety as dollar weakness reign supreme.

U.S dollar which measured against a six pair of major rival pairs continue to dominate the market with its selling pressure following the increasing possibility of further rate cut and slowing U.S economy. Following recent decade-low of U.S manufacturing data, market remain reactive towards the data and expecting further that the Fed have to accept the fact that the labor market and the consumer are weakening which could increase their rate cut possibility on the next policy meeting.  Besides that, a reports from media stated that North Korea have fired a sub-based projectile have further reinforced market concerns, causing market to escape into safe-haven markets such as Yen. Investors will remain on the lookout for further data and news development to determine further sentiment for the market. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.72 while USD/JPY also slips 0.05% to 107.70.

In the commodities market, crude oil rebound 0.33% to $54.17 per barrel as of writing following a decrease in crude inventories. According to reports from API, U.S crude stockpiles have decreased sharply last week, with the reading of -5.920M. Investors are now shifting their attention towards the upcoming number from EIA later this week. Next, gold price rose 0.07% to $1477.81 a troy ounce at the time of writing following market risk appetite have fell following dollar weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 98.95. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 98.95, 99.30

Support level: 98.20, 97.50
 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following retracement from the 20 MA line (Red). However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2360, 1.2430

Support level: 1.2265, 1.2210

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the support level at 1.0920. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1.0955.

Resistance level: 1.0955, 1.0995

Support level: 1.0920, 1.0885

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 107.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward resistance level at 108.10.

Resistance level: 108.10, 108.45

Support level: 107.60, 107.25

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6695. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 0.6740.

Resistance level: 0.6740, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6695, 0.6680

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6240. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded extend its gain toward resistance level at 0.6265.

Resistance level: 0.6265, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6240, 0.6215

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the previous support level at 1.3235. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3195.

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3195, 1.3175

USDCHF, H4: USDCAF was traded higher following prior breakout above the 60 MA line (green). However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9975

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9870

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 53.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 54.85.

Resistance level: 54.85, 56.30

Support level: 53.60, 52.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following retracement from the resistance level at 1484.95. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to be traded higher in short-run as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1484.95, 1497.45

Support level: 1469.70, 1461.10

2 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Greenback stumbled after ISM data disappoints.

US dollar slumped sharply on yesterday following the release of manufacturing data from the region. According to Institute for Supply Management (ISM), its Manufacturing PMI for the month of September enters deeper into the contraction region with a reading of 47.8, missing economists’ forecast for an increase to 50.4. The reading for the month of September marks second consecutive month of contraction while achieving its lowest level since June 2009. The report fanned further recessive fears in the market as global trade took a significant hit due to lingering US-China trade war which is yet to be resolved. For the time being, investors will continue to scrutinize future economic data from the US in order to attain more market signals. On the other hand, pound sterling extended its losses while Brexit deadline inches nearer. Recently leaked report shows that UK government plans to place custom checks between the borders of Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, both in which EU and Ireland have rejected previously. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.21% to 98.75 while pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.10% to 1.2289.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $54.05 per barrel. Oil futures received some bullish support after API reported a draw in last week’s oil inventories by -5.920 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.01% to $1,478.72 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at 98.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below the support of 98.65.

Resistance level: 99.00, 99.30

Support level: 98.65, 98.30

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 1.0930. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after breaking the target of 1.0930.

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1010

Support level: 1.0870, 1.0800

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 107.60. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 107.60.

Resistance level: 108.10, 108.45

Support level: 107.40, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance near 0.6705. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after breaking 0.6705.

Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6745

Support level: 0.6670, 0.6600

NZDUSD, Weekly: NZDUSD was traded lower after closing below 0.6300. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 0.6035.

Resistance level: 0.6300, 0.6435

Support level: 0.6030, 0.5790

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3220.

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3280

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3190

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.9925. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9925.

Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0010

Support level: 0.9925, 0.9865

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 54.45, 55.55

Support level: 53.00, 51.60

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a downward wedge formation. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term after a successful rebound from the lower levels.

Resistance level: 1484.05, 1511.00

Support level: 1460.00, 1442.85

1 October 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound slump despite positive economic data.

Pound Sterling slump despite recent economic data from the region fared better than expected. According to Office for National Statistics, U.K Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 1.3%, exceeding the economist forecast of 1.2% for the second quarter. In addition, U.K. Business Investment notched up from -0.5% to -0.4% for the month of August, which is also higher than the economist forecast. In addition, Britain’s government on Monday dismissed opposition suggestions that Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a financial conflict of interest over Brexit after receiving donations from fund managers who may be shorting in Pound Sterling. However, such positive sentiment still unable to provide a bullish support on Pound Sterling, amid to bleak data on U.K. Current Account. In fact, investors would continue to scrutinize the clue from the Brexit latest update in order to gauge the movement of the currency. On the other hand, Japanese Yen surge amid to recent economic data performance exceed the expectation. According to Bank of Japan, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index exceed the forecast for a reading of 2, came in at 5 for the month of September. Higher than expected reading should deliver a positive economic prospect for the region, providing the bullish support toward Japanese Yen. In addition, risk appetite ebbed on caution about unstable global environment, spurring the demand for safe-havens such as Japanese Yen, says Bloomberg. As of writing, GBP/USD slump 0.04% to 1.2279, while USD/JPY rose 0.13% to 108.19.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.61% to $54.51 per barrel amid to lower output from U.S., Russia and OPEC, says Reuters. On the other hand, gold price depreciated by 0.33% to $1467.55 per troy ounces amid to stronger greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   HKD                                        Hong Kong – National Day

All Day                   CNY                                        China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

00:45 (2^nd)            EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 99.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 98.85.

Resistance level: 99.25, 99.80

Support level: 98.85, 98.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2260. MACD However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.2385.

Resistance level: 1.2385, 1.2495

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2165

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0915. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0850.

Resistance level: 1.0915, 1.0965

Support level: 1.0850, 1.0770

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 108.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 108.35.

Resistance level: 108.35, 109.20

Support level: 107.55, 107.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6690

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6235. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6270, 0.6325

Support level: 0.6235, 0.6200

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from thre support level 1.3235. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.3305.

Resistance level: 1.3305, 1.3365

Support level: 1.3235, 1.3185

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0005. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0095

Support level: 0.9940, 0.9855

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 55.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 55.30.

Resistance level: 55.30, 58.35

Support level: 53.00, 50.50

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1487.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1452.15.

Resistance level: 1487.35, 1512.75

Support level: 1452.15, 1413.85

1 October 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Euro plummets as data disappoints.

Euro extended losses to its lowest level since May 2017 following bearish economic data which were released on yesterday. According to Federal Statistics Office German, its CPI for the month of September came in at 0.0%, missing economist forecast for a rise of 0.1%. At the same time, the harmonized EU measure for inflation fell to a lower rate at only 0.9%, signalling further downside ahead as the single economic zone plunged further into recession. These bearish economic data open up more room for loose monetary policy setting from the European Central Bank after the announced their decision to cut interest rate deeper into the negative territory. However, euro managed to cap its losses after German Unemployment Change came in better than expected with -10,000 versus forecast for a rise of 5,000. On the other hand, US dollar continues to extend its bullish trend following optimistic developments with regards to US-China trade war. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury denied claims that the US is considering to restrict US investment in Chinese companies. The news dialled down tension in between both countries which were scheduled to reboot high-level trade talks next week in Washington. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD unchanged at 1.0898 while the dollar index was quoted up 0.28% to 98.98.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $54.28 per barrel. On yesterday, oil price plunged sharply after Saudi Arabia assured the market that its crude output remains constant at high levels, thus dialling down speculation for a shortage due to recent attacks to its oil facilities. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.02% to $1,472.82 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   HKD                       Hong Kong – National Day

All Day                   CNY                       China – National Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                     AUD                       RBA Rate Statement

00:45 (2^nd)            EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 99.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 99.00.

Resistance level: 99.00, 99.20

Support level: 98.65, 98.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2260. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.0870.

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1010

Support level: 1.0870, 1.0800

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 108.10. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level:108.10, 108.45

Support level: 107.60, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6705

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6250. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6320

Support level: 0.6250, 0.6220

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3280

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3190

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above 0.9970. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.0010.

Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0055

Support level: 0.9970, 0.9925

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 54.45, 55.55

Support level: 53.00, 51.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1483.50, 1494.50

Support level: 1471.50, 1446.00

30 September 2019                           Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD surged amid optimistic China data.

AUDUSD surged as positive China data was released in this morning. Since Australia’s economic growth is strongly tied with China, the positive reading has provided some bullish support towards AUD. According to China Logistics Information Center, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 49.8, exceeding the economic forecast for a reading up to 49.5. Such positive sentiment should signal a good economic prospect for China and the threat of trade war had a less impact toward the China economy. However, investors would continue to scrutinize future economic data in order to gauge the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate decision on Tuesday’s RBA meeting. On the other hand, EUR/USD slump as bleak data was released on last Friday. According to the data, German import prices fell sharply in August, while the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 101.7 in September, lower than the economic expectation at 103.00. French Consumer inflation data also came in below the market expectations. In addition, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane hinted that the bank still has space for further monetary easing when its new President Christine Lagarde takes over in November. However, investors would pay close attention in today’s crucial economic data today in order to gauge the future direction of policy from the European Central Bank and the movement of the pair. As of writing, AUD/USD slump 0.13% to 0.6755 and EUR/USD depreciated by 0.06% to 1.0929.

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.20% to $56.02 per barrel on easing tensions in Middle East after a rather surprising turn of events. Saudi Arabia is implementing a partial cease-fire in Yemen while rumors surfaced that the U.S. is considering easing sanction on Iran. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.33% to $1491.82 per troy ounces amid positive expectation for a resolution of trade war which sparked higher demand for risky assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                              CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 98.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 98.85.

Resistance level: 98.85, 99.20

Support level: 98.55, 98.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level at 1.2310. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2310, 1.2355

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2190

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 20 MA line (red). However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.0965, 1.0995

Support level: 1.0915, 1.0900

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its support level at 107.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 108.55.

Resistance level: 108.55, 109.10

Support level: 107.20, 106.55

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6760. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward support level at 0.6745.

Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6790

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6730

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6290. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward support level at 0.6260.

Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6325

Support level: 0.6260, 0.6235

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a range while currently testing at the resistance level at 1.3240. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breakout below the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3280

Support level: 1.3215, 1.3195

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9930. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher as technical correction toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9930, 1.0010

Support level: 0.9870, 0.9810

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a range while currently testing at the resistance level at 56.40. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 56.40, 57.90

Support level: 55.45, 54.85

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1506.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower toward the support level at 1481.85.

Resistance level: 1506.70, 1526.35

Support level: 1481.85, 1439.85

30 September 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

Greenback retraces, all eyes on Nonfarm Payrolls.

Greenback halts its prior bullish trend and retraced from the higher levels last Friday after recent data shows lower-than-expected inflationary pressure. Although Core Durable Goods Orders for the month of August came in higher than expected, the Federal Reserve preferred inflation measure – Core PCE Price Index missed economists’ forecast. For the month of August, Core PCE Price Index for the month over month comparison slowed down to 0.1%, missing economists’ forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2%. The latest reading suggests cooling inflationary pressure and spending after a strong appreciation in the second quarter. Prior, the Federal Reserve initiated two interest rates cuts in order to curb slowing global economic growth and trade war risks in between US and China. For the time being, investors will be anticipating the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report due this Friday in order to attain more market signals. In the other region, pound sterling remains in a downtrend due to the lack of Brexit negotiation progress in between UK and EU. Although EU was reportedly open for re-negotiation, UK has yet to send a written proposal for Brexit deal and this increases the uncertainty over its outcome when the 31^st October deadline approaches. As of writing, the dollar index slipped 0.01% to 98.71 while pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.03% to 1.2293.

For commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.14% to $56.09 per barrel. Oil futures received some bearish pressure over signs of cooling economic momentum in the United States which may dial down its demand for crude oil in the future. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.22% to $1,500.25 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                CrudeOIL               OPEC Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to experience technical correction after closing below 98.65.

Resistance level: 99.00, 99.20

Support level: 98.65, 98.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2325, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2260, 1.2170

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1010, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0930, 1.0870

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 108.05, 108.45

Support level: 107.60, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6750, 0.6705

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6290. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above 0.6290.

Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6320

Support level: 0.6250, 0.6220

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3255. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3220.

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3280

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3190

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9865.

Resistance level: 0.9925, 0.9970

Support level: 0.9865, 0.9820

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 56.70, 57.30

Support level: 55.55, 54.45

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1503.00, 1509.00

Support level: 1494.50, 1483.50