Daily Analysis

15 August 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Trump accuses Federal Reserve again?

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies sink amid US President Donald Trump aggressive comment on Federal Reserve which caused investors to shed off their dollar holdings. With global markets concern about fallout from trade dispute between US and China, Trump on Wednesday reiterated that Federal Reserve overaggressive monetary policy is the culprit of market turmoil. Last year, Federal Reserve adjusted their interest rate upward for four times from 1.50% to 2.50%, seemingly acting far too quickly and it is now very late in reversing their interest rate, said by Trump. On the other side, Federal Reserve which act as independent authority remained its open stance for further rate cut while gauging the inflationary status of US economy based on more economic data. Dollar index dipped 0.02% to $97.75 during early Asian trading session. With strengthened inflation which showed by upbeat CPI data, pair of GBP/USD rose by 0.02% to 1.2060 after falling more than 0.40% yesterday. According to Office for National Statistics, UK Consumer price Index (CPI) came in at 2.1%, beating the economist’s forecast of 1.9% despite economy struggling by Brexit dispute. Besides, opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn has drafted a new plan to defeat the new prime minister from letting UK exit the Eurozone without a deal, according to Reuters. After proposition of no confidence vote, Jeremy Cobryn also planned to secure a general election and extend the Article 50 process to delay Brexit past the deadline on 31^th October.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.11% to $54.95 per barrel after tumbling down for more than 5% yesterday amid increasing stockpile in US crude oil inventories. According to EIA data, crude oil inventories has increased by 1.580M, missing the economist’s forecast of -2.775M. On the other hand, gold price ticked up by 0.01% to $1516.55 a troy ounce amid weakening dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 97.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest index to extedn its gains towards the resistance level 98.20.

Resistance level: 98.20, 98.60
Support level: 97.55, 97.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat below its 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2125, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2000, 1.1880

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1185. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1115.

Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1115, 1.1075

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 106.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 106.05, 106.70
Support level: 105.45, 105.00

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6760. MACD which display bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6790
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6430. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.6470.

Resistance level: 0.6470, 0.6500
Support level: 0.6430, 0.6395

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3305. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3370, 1.3435
Support level: 1.3305, 1.3240

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near its 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 0.9750, 0.9805
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9640

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near its 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 55.75, 57.95
Support level: 54.00, 52.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1512.30. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1532.05.

Resistance level: 1532.05, 1548.05
Support level: 1512.30, 1492.10

14 August 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Market remains skeptical over Trump’s concession.

Japanese yen continues to receive higher demand in the financial market as traders remained skeptical over US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay additional tariffs upon some Chinese imported goods. On yesterday, Washington announced that tariffs upon some categories of Chinese goods will be delayed to 15^th December while other goods such as agricultural products, antiques, clothes, kitchenware and footwear will be subjected to tariffs on 1^st September. However, the temporary reprieve in trade war failed to garner higher optimism in the market as there is still no ultimate solution to the ongoing trade row which would in return jeopardize global economic growth for long-term. Likewise, increasing violent clashes in between protesters and police force in Hong Kong as well as current Brexit conundrum in the UK provides additional bullish support upon the Japanese yen. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.36% to 106.35. On the other hand, AUD/USD slumped 0.10% to 0.6794 during Asian trading session. Australian dollar received some bearish momentum after China’s July Retail Sales and Industrial Production lagged behind market consensus and prior reading. Both data sparked higher concern over the economic growth momentum of the world’s largest economy powerhouse.

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.55% to $56.37 per barrel. Oil futures were dumped following bearish economic data from China which sparked concerns over diminishing demand for the commodity in the long-run over the backdrop of slowing growth. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.07% to $1,502.34 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 97.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards back the current support level 97.50.

Resistance level: 97.90, 98.15

Support level: 97.50, 97.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2100. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1955.

Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2245

Support level: 1.1955, 1.1775

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1170. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1340

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 106.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 106.05.

Resistance level: 106.90, 107.80

Support level: 106.05, 105.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6825.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6430. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6505.

Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585

Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3145.

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3095

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800

Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 57.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 55.55.

Resistance level: 57.45, 58.85

Support level: 55.55, 53.05

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1495.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1515.55, 1535.00

Support level: 1495.60, 1475.50

14 August 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Dollar strengthened amid positive CPI, safe haven plunges.

Greenback received strong bullish momentum after the release of US Core CPI which exceeded economists’ expectation. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.3%, beating its forecasted value of 0.2% while lowering expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) throughout this year. Previous comments from the Fed stated that they are open to further rate cuts while gauging future economic data to support their decision. With the strong inflationary status as shown in the CPI data, investors bet towards an aggressive cut by the Fed was lowered, causing them to sell of their safe-haven assets and entering into strong dollar market. In other news, pound sterling was supported by bullish jobs data from the UK. According to its Office for National Statistics, UK Claimant Count Change was lower at 28K, beating its forecasted value of 32K while indicating a stronger labor market. Overall negative sentiment from the region was lifted after the released of its data, where lower number of unemployed people will lead to a higher consumer spending and economic growth. However, the pound was later pressured by a stronger dollar and Brexit issues continues to worsen investors confident towards the single currency. As of writing, dollar index retraced by 0.06% to 97.53 while pair of GBP/USD falls by 0.03% to 1.2053.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.14% to $56.60 per barrel after surging more than 4% yesterday amid positive trade developments. The US Trade Representative announced the delay of 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods after China Vice Premier Liu He conducted a phone call with US trade officials. The delay of tariff lifted the bearish sentiment of oil market, providing hopes for a truce in trade war. On the other hand, gold price continues to fall by 0.34% to $1496.05 a troy ounce after plunging more than $40 amid bullish inflation data from the US as well as positive sentiment regarding trade developments.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 97.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 97.50.

Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2090. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1990

Resistance level: 1.2090, 1.2155
Support level: 1.1990, 1.1880

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1180.

Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1240

Support level: 1.1155, 1.1115

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 106.75. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.05.

Resistance level: 106.75, 107.40
Support level: 106.05, 105.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6760.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 20 moving average line (Red).

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6395

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3220. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3185.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3275
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3140

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the 50 moving average line (blue). MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 50 moving average line (Blue).

Resistance level: 0.9790, 0.9840
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9705

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 56.80. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 55.90.

Resistance level: 56.80, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1490.00. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1507.10.

Resistance level: 1507.10, 1532.05
Support level: 1490.00, 1480.00

13 August 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen triumphs as risk aversion persists.

Japanese yen still receive higher demand in the FX market following higher risk aversion around the globe. The currency received fresh boost from deepening civil unrest in Hong Kong after its international airport was closed for flights on Monday due to ongoing demonstration. On the other hand, a surprising election results in Argentina has sparked higher selloff upon its currency, stocks and bonds, which also increases the demand for safe-haven assets. Likewise, the Japanese yen received further support after 10-year US Treasury bond yield depreciated more than 4% on yesterday while major equity indexes eased more than 1%. Primary driver towards risk aversion from the US market was stemmed from ongoing trade war in between US and China which sees no stopping point that may carry on for a longer period of time. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY ticks up 0.02% to 105.33, hovering near prior 7-months low. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.09% to 0.6758. Australian dollar received some bullish momentum after NAB Business Confidence for the month of July came in at 4, slightly higher than forecast of 3. This shows that business sector which has lost significant momentum since early 2018 has recovered slightly for the time being.

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.09% to $54.70 per barrel. Oil futures edged lower on Tuesday following higher expectation that future demand may diminish due to ongoing trade war in between US-China. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.41% to $1,517.38 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 97.10. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 97.50.

Resistance level: 97.50, 97.90

Support level: 97.15, 96.70

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2100. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2015.

Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2175

Support level: 1.2015, 1.1955

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded flat while currently testing near the support level 1.1170. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1340

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 105.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 106.30, 106.90

Support level: 104.70,104.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6755. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6825.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865

Support level: 0.6755, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level. However, due to lack of clear direction and momentum from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585

Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3290.

Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3230, 1.3145

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9705. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9755.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800

Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 53.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo a technical correction towards the current support level 53.05.

Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45

Support level: 53.05, 50.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1515.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1515.55, 1535.00

Support level: 1495.60, 1475.50

13 August 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

Forex market stumbled ahead series of economic data.

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies dipped while market are await for more economic data such as tonight Core CPI to further determine the monetary policy stance of Federal Reserve as it act as a crucial indicator of US current inflationary status. Prior to that, greenback shininess faded amid heightening of investor expectation that a prolonged trade dispute between US and China would cumbrance the economic growth of US, urging investors to leave dollar market and flee into other riskier currencies market such as pound and euro. During early Asian trading session, dollar index quoted down 0.11% to $97.20. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.03% to $1.2070 amid rising possibility no deal Brexit. As of now, Boris Johnson is preparing for a parliamentary battle against MPs who trying to avoid no deal Brexit as recent report revealed that opponent party’s leader, Jeremy Cobryn may bring confidence motion against Boris Johnson as early as September. Besides, investors are also eye on economic data such as Claimant Count Change from its region in order to gauge the short term direction of pound.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.05% to $54.80 per barrel despite fears of global economic downturn and ongoing US–China trade war. Now, investors are remain silent while waiting for OPEC Report as it signaled the outlook for crude oil market development. On the other hand, gold price surged by 0.30% to $1515.50 a troy ounce amid weakening dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remained traded in a sideway channel after retracing from its top-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.55, 98.20
Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of ‘positive divergence’ suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2125.

Resistance level: 1.2125, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2000, 1.1880

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near its 20-MA line (green). MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1185 after successfully closing below its 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1285

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1155

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 105.45. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 105.45, 106.05
Support level: 105.00, 104.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6720.

Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6790
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6430. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6395

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3240. MACD which display bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3305
Support level: 1.3160, 1.3090

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.9705. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9640.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9790
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9580

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above its 60-MA line (red). MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 55.75.

Resistance level: 55.75, 57.95
Support level: 54.00, 52.45

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1512.30. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1492.10.

Resistance level: 1512.30, 1528.60
Support level: 1492.10, 1476.00

12 August 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Trade war may drag longer?

Japanese yen remains well in bid during Asian trading session as US-China trade dispute might drag on without any settlements in between both parties. Confusion still lingers in the market after US President Donald Trump said last Friday that he is not ready to make a deal with China although they have scheduled for a September negotiation with Beijing in Washington. For the time being, investors refrain from initiating larger trades while waiting for further signals from US-China trade war as well as economic data from the United States. As such, most investors shifted their portfolio into safe-havens such as Japanese yen in order to safe guard their capital. During Asian session, pair of USD/JPY was quoted down 0.18% to 105.47. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD recovered its losses by 0.09% to 1.2045. Pound sterling received tremendous selling pressure last Friday following the release of economic data from United Kingdom. For second quarter, its Gross Domestic Product contracted by -0.2%, missing economist forecast to remain unchanged at 0.0%. The data has further deteriorated market sentiment towards Britain as they are highly likely to face a No-Deal Brexit by 31^st October 2019.

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.07% to $54.26 per barrel. However, overall outlook on oil price remains bleak due to global economic slowdown and worries upon a possible long-term trade war in between US and China. On the other hand, gold price ticked down by 0.03% to $1,496.49 a troy ounce as market participants wait for more signals from the global financial market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   JPY                        Mountain Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat near the support level 97.10. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the dollar to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 97.90, 98.50

Support level: 97.10, 96.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.2100. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical rebound back towards the current resistance level 1.2100.

Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2245

Support level: 1.1955, 1.1775

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following recent rebound from the MA line 20 (red). MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.1275.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1340

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 105.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 105.45.

Resistance level: 106.05, 106.90

Support level: 105.45, 104.70

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6825. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6760.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6505. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6430.

Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585

Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3145.

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3095

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following while currently testing near the support level 0.9705. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 0.9705.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800

Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 53.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo a technical correction towards the current support level 53.05.

Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45

Support level: 53.05, 50.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was flat while currently testing the support level 1495.60. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the recent formation of death cross suggest the commodity to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1515.55, 1535.00

Support level: 1495.60, 1475.50

12 August 2019                  Morning Session Analysis

PPI failed to provide support for dollar.

Last Friday, dollar failed to extend its gains after US release of its Producer Price Index (PPI) data. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, its PPI data came in as expected at 0.2%, however acting as Fed’s crucial inflationary data measurement, the reading was unable to lower expectations of further rate cut by the Federal Reserve throughout this year. Investors reacted by further selling the dollar and enter into safe-haven gold market while they wait for further signal from this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to further gauge the inflationary status of US. With ongoing global trade tensions as well as dampening economic growth, Fed’s current interest rate level provide sufficient space for further rate cuts to support its economy. In addition to that, Fed’s recent comment on its monetary policy suggest that they are still open to further loosening depending on current economic conditions. In other news, Canada dollar was able to hold its ground against the dollar despite a poor employment data. Last Friday, Canada released its Employment Change data with a reading of -24.2K, missing economists’ expectation by a long shot at 12.5K while causing investors to sell the Loonie. However, the single currency managed to pared its losses due to the support from increasing crude oil price. As of writing, dollar index inched higher by 0.01% to 97.29 while pair of USD/CAD rose by 0.03% to 1.3225.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.24% to $54.10 per barrel after surging more than 3% last Friday. Although ongoing production cut from OPEC+ continues to provide support for oil prices, however overall sentiment for crude oil market remains cloudy as trade tensions between US and China continues to dampen global growth and spiraling uncertainties towards oil demand. Besides that, gold price inched higher by 0.01% to $1496.50 a troy ounce following ongoing uncertainties in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   JPY                                          Mountain Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the channel’s bottom level at 97.10. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

Resistance level: 97.50, 98.00
Support level: 97.10, 96.80

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2090. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1990.

Resistance level: 1.2090, 1.2155
Support level: 1.1990, 1.1880

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1240.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1155

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 105.25.  MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 105.25.

Resistance level: 105.60, 106.05
Support level: 105.25, 104.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6765.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6765, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6435. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6435.

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6395

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3220. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3220.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3275
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3140

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20 moving average line (Red). Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9790
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9645

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 54.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 53.10.

Resistance level: 54.65, 55.90
Support level: 53.10, 51.15

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1507.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1490.00

Resistance level: 1507.10, 1530.00
Support level: 1490.00, 1480.00

9 August 2019                     Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remains pressured amid renewed jitters on Huawei.

Dollar index which measured against a basket of six major currency pairs have fell as U.S plans to delay decision on U.S companies conducting businesses with China’s Huawei Technologies. According to reports from Bloomberg, the telecommunication giant Huawei have been accused of espionage and stealing intellectual property. According to recent report, the US administration has released an early publication of a rule that will ban all new contracts or buying of equipment from Huawei, ZTE and a number of other Chinese companies which will starting to take effect from 13 August 2019. Besides that, the law also set a deadline of August 2020 for a broader ban on federal contractors doing business with Huawei or the covered firms. The news have triggered a series of risk-off trades, boosting safe-haven asset like Yen and also dragged the greenback sentiment lower. As the lack of economic docket from U.S counterpart, investors are now eying on the next PPI data and further developments between U.S and China to gauge further sentiment for the dollar. Greenback fell 0.06% to 97.30 while USD/JPY also slips 0.05% to 105.95 at the time of writing.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.53% to $52.59 per barrel as of writing. Market remains pressured by fears of U.S-Sino trade tension could lead to a global slowdown and a declining demand for the commodity. However, the losses are limited by latest reports stated that the world’s biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia had called other producers to discuss the recent slide in crude prices. Next, gold price gains 0.19% to $1504.11 a troy ounce at the time of writing following renewed tensions boosted risk-off sentiment.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement toward the support level at 97.10.

Resistance level: 97.50, 98.00

Support level: 97.10, 96.80

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the channel’s bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2090.

Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2220

Support level: 1.2090, 1.1990

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1185. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.1240.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1155

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 106.05. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 106.05.

Resistance level: 106.05, 107.75

Support level: 105.60, 105.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat near the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6765.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865

Support level: 0.6765, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6490. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6490.

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6435, 0.6395

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level and the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3140.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3275

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3095

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9755. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9705.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9790

Support level: 0.9705, 0.9645

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 51.15.

Resistance level: 53.10, 54.65

Support level: 51.15, 50.25

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 1495.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1515.00.

Resistance level: 1515.00, 1530.00

Support level: 1495.00, 1477.90

9 August 2019                     Morning Session Analysis

Greenback awaits PPI.

US dollar remains traded within a tight range while market participant waits the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data later tonight. As of writing, the dollar index ticked up 0.03% to 97.42 against other major currencies. Most traders refrained from entering the market with larger position as they gauge the economic performance of United States in order to speculate the degree of next interest rate cut. While recent economic data shows mixed signals, US President Donald Trump’s recent criticism upon the Federal Reserve has sparked higher concern over the independence of the Fed while worrying that they might deliver a rate cut next month as high as 50 basis points. Likewise, the greenback remained unfazed by its recent employment data after Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in lower at 209,000 individuals versus forecast of 215,000 individuals. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.27% to 105.78. The demand for safe-haven Yen remains robust due to ongoing trade conflict in between US and China. Recently, central banks around the world such as New Zealand, India and Thailand had initiated a rate cut in order to support their economy due to potential peril from US-China trade war. As such, most investor’s flock into safe-havens in order to safe-guard their capital from any further losses.

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.47% to $52.64 per barrel. With recent market sentiment remained fixated upon potential global economic slowdown, most traders forego their bullish position upon oil futures and enters into the safe-haven market. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.19% to $1,504.05 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the FX market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to illustrate retracement signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 97.40, 97.80

Support level: 96.95, 96.30

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending wedge. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2160, 1.2190

Support level: 1.2135, 1.2090

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle formation. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1170.

Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1265

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1115

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the low level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 106.50, 107.25

Support level: 105.60, 104.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 0.6830.

Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6675

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6485. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target at 0.6485.

Resistance level: 0.6485, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6260

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3290

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3190

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower after closing below the support of 0.9745. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.9700.

Resistance level: 0.9745, 0.9790

Support level: 0.9700, 0.9650

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 53.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains after closing above 53.00.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to experience technical corrections in the short-term.

Resistance level: 1515.00, 1535.35

Support level: 1500.00, 1483.50

8 August 2019                     Afternoon Session Analysis

Slow market ahead of inflation data.

Market sentiment remained pressured by a set of dovish events such as increasing uncertainties of global economy slowdown which led to a few rate cuts by central banks around the world. Further pressuring global slowdown is ongoing trade tensions between US and China after recent round of trade talks ended with US President Donald Trump imposing additional tariff on Chinese goods effective 1^st September. Some analysts reasoned that the motive behind Trump’s tariff is to pressure China into reaching a deal sooner, while others argued that the motive was due to Trump’s protectionism against its major partners. However, on China’s side, Beijing stated that they do not want a war but its not afraid to fight one, further increasing the tensions as investors expect a further delay of trade war. Tensions between the two countries had dampened global economy, causing central banks such as RBA and RBNZ to further loosen their monetary policy to support the economy downfall as investors largely sold the commodity-backed currencies. Recent outlook for the FX market remains dovish as investors are parking their investment into safe-haven assets while waiting for sentiment to be lifted from possible trade developments before 1^st September. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY was down by 0.13% to 106.11 while dollar index inched lower by 0.03% to 97.32.

In terms of commodities market, crude oil price extended its rebound by 0.82% to $52.68 per barrel. After plunging more than 5% due to surprise build up in US crude inventories as reported by the EIA, the black commodity managed to pared its losses supported by ongoing Persian Gulf tensions as well as OPEC+ continuous effort to keep global stock lower. Otherwise, gold price falls by 0.08% to $1,499.75 a troy ounce. Gold prices remained well supported following President Trump’s criticism on the Federal Reserve to further its rate cut.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 97.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 97.90.

Resistance level: 97.90, 98.50

Support level: 97.10, 96.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.2245.

Resistance level: 1.2245, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2100, 1.1955

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1170.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1340

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 106.05. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 106.90.

Resistance level: 106.90, 107.80

Support level: 106.00, 105.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6825.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6420. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6490.

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6550

Support level: 0.6420, 0.6350

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3290. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3230.

Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3230, 1.3145

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800

Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 52.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 52.90, 54.50

Support level: 50.90, 48.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1495.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1495.60.

Resistance level: 1515.55, 1535.00

Support level: 1495.60, 1475.50

8 August 2019                     Morning Session Analysis

Trump criticize Fed, again.

Greenback seesawed against other major currencies on Wednesday following extensive criticism of US President Donald Trump against the US Federal Reserve. In a comment posted on Trump’s official twitter account, he emphasizes that the Fed should make bigger rate cuts and halt any quantitative tightening. His comments sparks higher concern over the self-standing Federal Reserve while cultivating higher speculation for more rate cuts in the future. Following Trump’s comment, investors are currently pricing in at 47.9% for a 50-basis points rate cut during September’s Fed policy meeting. Meanwhile, ongoing trade tension in between US and China continues to weigh upon the US dollar as investors pours into safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen and Swiss Franc. Recent trade spat may lead to a long-term dispute in between two world’s largest economy that may jeopardize economic progression globally. With recent sluggishness in US economic data, investors halt from making large trade positions while waiting for further market signals. On the other hand, New Zealand dollar failed to extend its recovery from yesterday’s plunge. Traders continue to put bearish bets upon the currency after Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor Adrian Orr suggests that negative interest rates could be a possibility in the event of recessive conditions. As of writing, the dollar index was flat at 97.39 while pair of NZD/USD ticks up 0.01% to 0.6456.

In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.34% to $52.41 per barrel. On yesterday, oil futures received tremendous selling pressure after Energy Information Administration reported a surprising build in US crude inventories by 2.39 million barrels, confounding forecast for a draw of 2.85 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.30% to $1,496.91 a troy ounce due to technical corrections after rising more than 1% on yesterday while hitting a new high above $1,500 threshold.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retrace signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 97.40, 97.80

Support level: 96.95, 96.30

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Due to the lack of MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2160, 1.2190

Support level: 1.2135, 1.2090

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1265

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1115

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 106.50, 107.25

Support level: 105.60, 104.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a breakout at the trendline occurred.

Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925

Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower after closing below the support of 0.6485. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 0.6400.

Resistance level: 0.6485, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6400, 0.6260

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3355

Support level: 1.3290, 1.3255

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel formation. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9790.

Resistance level: 0.9790, 0.9820

Support level: 0.9745, 0.9700

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher, towards the direction of 53.00.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1515.00.

Resistance level: 1515.00, 1535.35

Support level: 1500.00, 1483.50

7 August 2019                     Afternoon Session Analysis

Kiwi suffered major losses amid huge rate cut.

New Zealand Kiwi crashed to multi-month lows after RBNZ delivered an unexpected huge rate cut. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have reduce its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.0%, much higher than market expectation of 25 basis points. The Monetary Policy Committee of New Zealand have stated that a lower official cash rate (OCR) is necessary to meet its employment and inflation objectives. In the official statement, RBNZ added that low interest rates and increased government spending will support a pick-up in demand over the coming year. Business investment is expected to rise given low interest rates and some ongoing capacity constraints. Likewise, an increased in construction activity will also likely to contributes towards a pick-up in demand. Besides that, the central bank also lowered its forecast on future interest rate for next year with prior forecast of 1.36% being revised to 0.91%. The revision has fueled extended selloff on the New Zealand dollar which hit its lowest level since 20^th January 2016. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD plunged 1.41% to 0.6721 while the dollar index slips 0.10% to 97.25.

As for commodities, crude oil sags 0.10% to $53.35 per barrel at the time of writing following heightened concerns upon global demand. As trade war between U.S and China continues to intensify, investors remained fixated upon the possibility of a lower demand of crude oil in the future. Next, gold price skyrocketed 0.66% to $1484.59 a troy ounce following global uncertainty which has boosted the demand for the safe-haven commodity.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from its top levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 97.55.

Resistance level: 97.55, 98.20

Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 1.2220, 1.2300

Support level: 1.2125, 1.2045

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1185. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower back towards the support level 1.1185.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1285

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1120

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 106.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 106.45, 106.80

Support level: 106.05, 105.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breaking below the previous support level 0.6720. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6660.

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6760

Support level: 0.6660, 0.6605

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6395. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6430, 0.6470

Support level: 0.6395, 0.6350

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3305. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3305, 1.3370

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3160

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9750. However, MACD which display bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.9805.

Resistance level: 0.9805, 0.9860

Support level: 0.9750, 0.9705

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 53.65. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 52.45.

Resistance level: 53.65, 54.60

Support level: 52.45, 50.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1476.00. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1495.60.

Resistance level: 1495.60, 1515.55

Support level: 1476.00, 1456.50

7 August 2019                    Morning Session Analysis

Greenback alleviated, eyes on future data.

US dollar managed to pare its losses on yesterday after China took steps to limit recent weakness in Chinese yuan while reassuring investors that it would not weaponize its currency for trade dispute in between US and China. Greenback extended its recovery from prior low level following diminishing demand for safe-haven such as Japanese yen and Swiss Franc after People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily currency limit for Chinese yuan at a stronger than expected rate. The move came after yuan slipped past 7RMB per dollar which Washington officially labelled China as a “currency manipulator”. However, overall gains on the US dollar were limited following weaker-than-expected employment data from yesterday night. According to JOLTs, Job Openings for the month of June came in at only 7.348 million, slightly lower than economists’ forecast of 7.450 million. For the time being, investors will continue to scrutinize economic releases from the US in order to gauge the sentiment for next rate cut from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, pound sterling remained pressured amid rising fears upon UK whom may leave the European Union without any substantial trade deal on 31^st October 2019. Senior EU and UK diplomats reportedly left Brussels with the impression that a “No-Deal Brexit” is the center of scenario after EU counterpart rejected to renegotiate Brexit deal. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.06% to 97.33 while pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.01% to 1.2164.

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.17% to $53.31 per barrel. Oil futures were dumped as US-China trade tension continue to rise which may threaten global economic growth and its demand towards crude oil in the future. On the other hand, gold price slumped by 0.09% to $1.473.19 a troy ounce due to a rebound in the US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

10:00                     NZD                                        RBNZ Rate Statement

11:00                     NZD                                        RBNZ Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate increasing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower, towards the direction of 96.95.

Resistance level: 97.80, 99.00

Support level: 96.95, 96.00

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.2190.

Resistance level: 1.2190, 1.2220

Support level: 1.2135, 1.2090

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1.1220.

Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1265

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1115

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 104.50. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 105.60.

Resistance level: 106.50, 107.25

Support level: 105.60, 104.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near 0.6760. MACD which illustrate increasing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6675

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following a rebound near 0.6520. MACD which illustrate increasing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6655

Support level: 0.6520, 0.6480

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of the channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout from the top.

Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3255, 1.3220

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.9745. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9745.

Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9890

Support level: 0.9745, 0.9700

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its losses after closing below the support of 53.75. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to advance further down, towards the direction of 52.70.

Resistance level: 53.75, 55.00

Support level: 52.70, 50.60

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior closure above 1471.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1483.50.

Resistance level: 1483.50, 1500.00

Support level: 1471.50, 1456.50

6 August 2019                     Afternoon Session Analysis

Australian dollar rise as RBA kept rate unchanged.

Aussie dollar received upward momentum after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept their interest rate unchanged at 1.00% following two consecutive cuts over the past two months. According to RBA statement, Governor Philip Lowe stated that outlook for global economy remains reasonable however it is still pressured by ongoing trade disputes between China and US which had since dampened global economy growth. In terms of inflation, Lowe stated that inflationary pressure for the first half of the year was subdued. However, inflationary pressure is expected to return to RBA’s target of 2% in the longer run. Whilst in terms of economic growth, Australia suffered a lower than expected growth for the first half of 2019 with household consumption declining due to lower income growth and declining house prices. Though, the growth is expected to strengthen throughout the 2^nd half of the year. On the dovish side of the statement, Lowe emphasized that RBA will continue with its low interest rate levels to reduce unemployment rate as well as supporting inflation towards its targeted level. RBA will also continue to monitor labor market progress and further monetary policy easing to sustain its economical growth. As of writing, dollar index ticked up by 0.04% to 97.29 while pair of AUD/USD rose 0.39% to 0.6780.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.58% to $55.25 per barrel despite ongoing trade tensions between US and China. Oil traders are now waiting for possible developments in trade talks as well as US crude inventories to further gauge oil’s movement. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.16% to $1,459.55 a troy ounce due to dollar rebound.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 97.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 97.90.

Resistance level: 97.90, 98.50

Support level: 97.10, 96.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat in a sideway channel. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.2100.

Resistance level: 1.2245, 1.2400

Support level: 1.2100, 1.1955

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1260. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1170.

Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1340

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 106.90. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 106.90, 107.80

Support level: 106.05, 105.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6825.

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6550. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 0.6490.

Resistance level: 0.6550, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6490, 0.6420

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3145.

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3095

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800

Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 54.50. MACD which display bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 56.00.

Resistance level: 56.00, 57.85

Support level: 54.50, 52.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1458.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1475.50, 1495.60

Support level: 1458.00, 1446.60

6 August 2019                     Morning Session Analysis

Safe-haven thrives as tension escalates.

Market participants remains fixated upon safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc following heightened tensions in between US and China. On yesterday, the US Treasury Department announced officially to label China as a currency manipulator after People’s Bank of China allowed the Chinese yuan to fall below RMB7 per dollar in retaliation against new US tariffs. The department commented that China has violated its commitment to refrain from competitive devaluation of currency as a part of Group of 20 industrialized countries. In addition, Beijing announced that it will stop purchasing US agricultural products, inflaming the current trade tension with the United States. Such retaliation came after US President Donald Trump announced to impose an additional of 10% tariffs upon $300 billion Chinese imports starting from 1^st September. The news has raised higher risk aversion in the market with traders pouring into safe-haven in order to safeguard their capital from further losses. As of writing, USD/JPY fell 0.27% to 105.67 while USD/CHF tumbles by 0.16% to 0.9718. On the other hand, greenback suffered from an extensive selloff over the backdrop of bearish economic data. For the month of July, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.7, missing economist forecast for a rise to 55.5. Services industry is one of the major drivers for the US economy and its contraction has sent bearish sentiment across the market. The dollar index was quoted down 0.70% to 97.24.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 1.37% to $54.12 per barrel. Oil futures received tremendous selling pressure following rising tension in between US and China that could jeopardize future economic growth and its demand towards crude oil. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.57% to $1,472.28 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                     AUD                                       RBA Rate Statement

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 96.95. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the index to extend its losses after closing below 96.95.

Resistance level: 97.80, 99.00

Support level: 96.95, 96.00

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.2245, 1.2360

Support level: 1.2150, 1.2080

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout at 1.1220. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1265.

Resistance level: 1.1265, 1.1330

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1170

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower after closing below 106.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of support level at 104.85.

Resistance level: 106.50, 108.80

Support level: 104.85, 103.15

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.6760. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6760.

Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6675

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6520. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6590.

Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6655

Support level: 0.6520, 0.6480

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signals from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3190, 1.3140

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.9700. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.9700.

Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9970

Support level: 0.9700, 0.9580

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 53.75. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 55.00, 55.70

Support level: 53.75, 52.70

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1471.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1483.50.

Resistance level: 1483.50, 1500.00

Support level: 1471.50, 1456.50