020817 Daily Analysis
2 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Bears maneuvers kiwi, greenback steers for recovery.
Kiwis were held lower during Asian trading hours on Wednesday following a disappointing release of employment data for the second quarter. In New Zealand, employment change fell by 0.2% versus expected forecast for a gain of 0.7%. While overall unemployment rate persists at 4.8%, the participation rate was down to 70.00% as compared to previous reading of 70.60%. Likewise, pair of NZD/USD sheds 0.51% to fresh one-week low of $0.7431. On the other hand, greenback was held steady at 92.83 as investors digest overnight’s mixed performance of economic data. While Fed preferred PCE price index has given some support to the bulls, its personal consumption component failed to increase for the first time in seven months which signals a moderate pace of consumption growth in third quarter. Likewise, ISM Manufacturing PMI undershot expectations with only 56.3 versus forecast of 56.5.
As for commodities, crude oil price fell 0.73% to $48.80 after American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise swell of 1.8 million barrels in US crude inventories. Otherwise, gold price sheds 0.38% to $1,267.82 as the greenback stages its recovery during early Asian session.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 06:45 | NZD – Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) | 1.2% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
| 09:30 | AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun) | -5.6% | 1.5% | 10.9% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 54.8 | 54.5 | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) | 158K | 185K | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -7.208M | -2.957M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD were traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red) while closing below the key support level of 1.3200. MACD histogram which shows downward signal suggests GBPUSD to extend its losses towards the next target at 1.3170.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3125
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD were traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1850. MACD which illustrates a reduction in upward momentum suggests EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction towards the support level of 1.1775.
Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1775, 1.1700
NZDUSD
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD were traded lower following prior closure below the strong support of 0.7465. Recent closure below the 60-MA line (green) suggests NZDUSD to extend its losses towards the next target of support level at 0.7400.
Resistance level: 0.7465, 0.7520
Support level: 0.7400, 0.7335
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY were traded higher following a rebound from the support level of 110.00 while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). A successful closure above the line would suggest an extension of uptrend towards the next target at 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.65
Support level: 110.00, 109.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior retracement near the resistance level of 49.25. A successful closure below the support level of 48.45 would suggest crude oil price to advance further downwards.
Resistance level: 49.25, 50.40
Support level: 48.45, 47.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended its downtrend following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red) while currently testing at the strong support level of 1265.60. A closure below this level would suggest gold price to move further downwards towards the next target at 1261.30.
Resistance level: 1270.00, 1273.95
Support level: 1265.60, 1261.30
010817 Daily Analysis
1 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar withers as short bet intensifies.
US dollar extended its losses while embracing fresh 14-months low as higher pessimism were spurred among market participants following a mixed pair of economic reports. The dollar index ticked up 0.04% to 92.72, not far from 14-months low of 92.55. The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index, a closely-monitored indicator by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) slipped to 58.9 in July, substantially lower than previous three-year’s high of 65.7 in June. In a separate report, National Associations of Realtors shown that pending home sales rose 1.5% in June, well above economist expectation of only 0.7%. However, the greenback received higher short bets amid a series of sluggish economic data which has curtail investor’s prospects for another rate hike this year. Against other major peers, EUR/USD eases from 30-months high by 0.13% to $1.1826 while GBP/USD hovers near 10-months high of $1.3205.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked up 0.06% to $50.20 following the potential tightening of supply in the market. Similarly, gold price appreciates by 0.13% to $1,268.20 due to a weaker dollar which has boosted the precious metal appeal as an alternative asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CHF Switzerland – National Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 50.4 | 50.4 | 51.1 |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 58.3 | 58.3 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) | 7K | -5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 54.3 | 54.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 57.8 | 56.5 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD rebounded sharply from the bottom level of rising wedge while currently testing at the top level. A successful closure outside of the top level would signal a change in trend direction to extend its gains towards the next target at 1.3250.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3300
Support level: 1.3150, 1.3100
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD advances further upwards following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which continues to illustrate increasing upward momentum suggests EURUSD to extend its uptrend after breaking the resistance level at 1.1850.
Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1775, 1.1700
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY has recently broke out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to advance further downwards. A successful closure below the support level of 110.10 would suggest USDJPY to advance towards the next target at 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.85, 111.85, 114.30
Support level: 110.10, 109.40, 108.55
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price were traded higher following a rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests crude oil price to extend its upward momentum towards the next target at 50.85.
Resistance level: 50.85, 51.70
Support level: 50.00, 49.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price were traded in an uptrend while currently testing near the strong resistance level of 1270.00. A breakout from this level would indicate further upside bias for gold price to extend its gains towards 1276.40 thereafter.
Resistance level: 1270.00, 1276.40
Support level: 1261.10, 1250.30
310717 Weekly Analysis
31 July 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 31 – August 4
Market Review (Forex): July 24 – 28
U.S. Dollar
Greenback extended its losses against other major peers on Friday following the release of economic data which portrays mixed signals to investors. The dollar index was down 0.61% to 93.20, its lowest close since June 22nd, 2016. The index has pared its gains around 2.3% for the month and was down for 9% for the year thus far.
According to the US Commerce Department, gross domestic product for second quarter increased within an expected reading of 2.6%. However, previous quarter reading was readjusted to show only a mild growth of 1.2% from 1.6%. In a separate report, wage growth and inflation remained tepid in the second quarter, doubling down investor’s sentiment towards US economy.
The US Labor Department reported that wages and salaries increased at a rate of 0.5% for the second quarter, after accelerating 0.8% in the first quarter. Likewise, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge increased only at 0.9%. It was the slowest pace over the course of two years. Subdued inflation outlook has raised doubts over the ability of the US Federal Reserve to following through its plan for a third rate hike by the end of the year.
US Gross Domestic Product
—– Forecast
US Gross Domestic Product was well within economist expectation of 2.6% for the second quarter.
US Employment Wages
US employment wages rose at a mild rate of 0.5% for the second quarter, as compared to 0.8% during the first quarter.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY sheds its prior gains and was down by 0.5% to six-weeks low of 110.68.
EUR/USD
Euro rose 0.63% to $1.1749, not far from two and a half years high of $1.1755 against the greenback. The single common currency has risen 2.84% within this month while recording an appreciation of 11% for the year, deeming it as the best performing major currency against the dollar.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling rose 0.54% to $1.3135 against the US dollar during late Friday trading.
Market Review (Commodities): July 24 – 28
GOLD
Gold prices rose on Friday following sluggish inflation data which has tempered investors sentiment for US Federal Reserve in raising its interest rates again this year, further supporting the demand for the metal. Price of the yellow metal closed at 0.74% higher at $1,269.34 while recording its third consecutive weekly gain of 1.08%. The dollar was broadly weakened by data which shows signs of sluggishness in both wage and inflation growth, which has triggered a sell-off on the currency. A weaker dollar will boost the appeal of gold which are denominated in the US currency. Likewise, the metal has received additional boost following rising tension between United States and North Korea.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled higher for its fifth consecutive session on Friday while logging in its biggest weekly gain following signs of rising demand that could offset excess supply in the market. Its prices rose 67 cents or 1.4% while ended the week at $49.71 a barrel. For the week, it has gained $3.94 or around 8.5%, seemingly large gain since last December as Saudi Arabia and Nigeria pledged to potentially reduce their crude exports and outputs.
Data from American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration shows a fourth consecutive decline in US crude inventories which signals a possible slowdown in US shale production has added further optimism towards the rebalancing of oil market. On the other hand, energy services company Baker Hughes reported that the number of active drilling rig was increased by 2 to 766 last week, suggesting early signs of slowdown in domestic production growth.
Previously, OPEC and some non-OPEC members had extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. However, the production-cut agreement has yet to yield any impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from non-participating countries such as Libya, Nigeria and United States.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active drilling rigs was up by 2 and total count thus far remains at three-years high of 766.
Weekly Outlook: July 31 – August 4
For the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s highly anticipated US jobs report for further indication on the possible policy direction that would be adopted by US Federal Reserve. Central bank meetings in the UK and Australia will also be focused while euro zone is set to release their preliminary data on inflation and second quarter growth.
Otherwise, oil traders will be eyeing fresh information regarding US stockpiles to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Sidelined are the comments from global oil producers which may hint their compliance with prior agreement to reduce or freeze their production levels.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 31 – August 4
| Monday, July 31 |
Data CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Jul) EUR – German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) GBP – Net Lending to Individuals USD – Chicago PMI (Jul) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, August 1 |
Data CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul) AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, August 2 |
Data Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock NZD – Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun) GBP – Construction PMI (Jul) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, August 3 |
Data AUD – Trade Balance (Jun) GBP – Services PMI (Jul) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Events GBP – BoE Inflation Report GBP – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
|
Friday, August 4
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) CAD – Employment Change (Jul) CAD – Ivey PMI (Jul) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
|
Technical weekly outlook: July 31 – August 4
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index extended its losses following prior retracement from the resistance level near 94.00. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggests dollar index to advance further down after successfully closing below the support level of 93.00.
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.95
Support level: 93.00, 92.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded within a rising wedge following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Recent closure above the resistance level of 1.3120 suggests further upside bias to advance towards the next target at 1.3235.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3120, 1.2970
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior closure below the strong support level of 110.85. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggests possibility for a breakout to occur at the bottom level of ascending triangle and signal a change in trend direction. Next target will be at 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.85, 111.85, 114.30
Support level: 110.10, 109.40
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its uptrend following prior closure above the strong resistance level at 1.1700. MACD which illustrates a substantial increase in upward momentum suggests further upside bias for EURUSD to extend towards 1.1880.
Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.2000
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1550
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1247.00. MACD histogram which illustrates substantial upward signal suggests gold price to extend its uptrend after closing above the resistance level of 1270.35.
Resistance level: 1270.35, 1281.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1259.00, 1247.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price advanced further upwards following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. A successful closure above the psychological level of 50.00 would suggest an extension of upward momentum towards the next target at 51.50.
Resistance level: 50.00, 51.50
Support level: 48.50, 47.00
280717 Daily Analysis
28 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Could GDP fortify the dollar’s comeback?
Japanese yen held gains on Friday following the release of economic data which covers consumer prices and household demands. Pair of USD/JPY sheds 0.26% to 110.96. In Japan, household spending shows a pickup of 2.3% in June, exceeding expected rise of only 0.6%. Likewise, higher inflationary pressure was seen with Tokyo Core CPI which scores 0.2% while National CPI remained subdued at only 0.4%. These readings were in line with Bank of Japan’s projection after they announced to push back the timing of achieving 2% inflation target during last meeting. On the other hand, US dollar hovers in a tight range while last quoted around 93.70. Overnight, US dollar pushed higher despite a series of mixed economic data which signals potential slowdown in their economy. A rather optimistic durable goods data has offset the pessimism in jobs market as initial jobless claims undershot its forecast, levitating the dollar away from 14-months low.
As for commodities, crude oil price eases slightly by 0.08% to $49.00 while further signal on demand is expected to be the main catalyst for its momentum. Concurrently, gold price was last seen around $1,259.32 as the market remains steady prior to the release of US economic growth data later tonight.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 1.4% | 2.6% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 93.1 | 93.1 | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 764 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a rebound signal from oversold region suggests further upside bias for GBPUSD to advance towards 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3000
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD were traded higher following prior rebound while closing above the 20-MA line (red). Such price movement suggests EURUSD to be traded higher and retest at the resistance level of 1.1720.
Resistance level: 1.1720, 1.1815
Support level: 1.1620, 1.1540
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY were traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing near the strong support level of 110.85. MACD histogram which illustrates substantial downward signal suggests USDJPY to extend its losses after closing below 110.85.
Resistance level: 111.85, 112.85, 114.30
Support level: 110.85, 110.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price has recently broke the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests its prices to advance towards the target of 50.00.
Resistance level: 50.00, 51.50
Support level: 48.50, 47.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). A successful closure above the resistance level of 1261.10 would suggest gold price to extend its uptrend towards the following target at 1270.00 thereafter.
Resistance level: 1261.10, 1270.00
Support level: 1250.30, 1239.55
270717 Daily Analysis
27 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dovish FOMC quotes future data for rate hike.
US dollar extended its losses during Asian trading hours on Thursday following the release of FOMC statement which signals a rather dovish stance. The dollar index plunged 0.23% to a fresh 13-months low of 93.26 against a basket of six major currencies. In a move largely expected by the financial market, US Federal Reserve (Fed) voted to retain its benchmark rate target between 1% – 1.25%. The statement which accompanied the decision revealed some concerns of policymakers with regards to recent slowdown in inflationary pressure which are well below their target of 2%. The Feds noted that market-based measures of inflation compensation are low but remained optimistic that the pace of inflation would stabilize in the long-term. The central bank postulate that key interest rates may likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting the role of future economic data in determining the next rate hike. Against other major currencies, euro rose 0.37% to fresh 30-months high at $1.1747 while USD/JPY was down 0.13% to 111.03.
In the commodities market, crude oil price sheds 0.25% to $48.63 as market participants took the opportunity to cash in their gains from the recent rally. Otherwise, gold price rose 1.02% to $1,261.78 following a sell-off on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 233K | 241K | – |
DOLLAR_INDX
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index extended its losses following prior retracement from the psychological level at 94.00. A closure below the support level of 93.20 would suggest the dollar index to extend its losses further towards the target of 92.45 thereafter.
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.95
Support level: 93.20, 92.45
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended gains following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red) while closing above the threshold of 1.3100. It is suggested to advance further up, towards the upper level of the upward channel at next target of 1.3160.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3050
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended gains following prior successful closure above the strong psychological level at 1.1700. Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests EURUSD to move further up towards the next target at 1.1870.
Resistance level: 1.1870, 1.2000
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1550
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY pared its earlier gains following a retracement from the 60-MA line (green). A closure below the strong support level of 111.00 would suggest USDJPY to advance towards the next target at 110.15.
Resistance level: 111.65, 112.30
Support level: 111.00, 110.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price were traded lower following the lack of bullish momentum near the psychological level of 49.00. MACD which illustrates a divergence signal suggests crude oil price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target of support level at 48.40.
Resistance level: 49.00, 49.65
Support level: 48.40, 47.75
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended gains following prior rebound from the support level of 1247.00 while closing above 60-MA line (green). Recent closure above 1259.00 suggests gold price to advance further up towards the next target at 1270.35.
Resistance level: 1270.35, 1281.00
Support level: 1259.00, 1247.00
260717 Daily Analysis
26 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Sentiment on the verge, all eyes on FOMC.
Greenback held overnight gains during early Asian trading hours on Wednesday while market participants awaits Federal Reserve’s monetary policy views. The dollar index ticked up 0.08% while hovering near 93.90. Overnight, the dollar was traded flat against other major currencies while the Fed’s two-day policy meeting overshadowed the better-than-expected consumer confidence towards the strength of US economy. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 121.1 in July, its highest level in 16 years whereas economist expected for a decline to 116.5. While the Feds are widely expected to keep their interest rate unchanged, investors will be peering into their latest monetary policy statement to garner fresh insights with regards to the timing of next rate hike and balance sheet normalization. Against other major currencies, euro eased 0.06% to $1.1639 while pairing of USD/JPY rose 0.12% to 112.02.
Otherwise, crude oil price extended gains by 1% to $48.37 a barrel following a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories. American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude stockpiles dropped sharply by 10.23 million barrels last week, far exceeding an expected draw of only 3 million. On the other hand, gold price losses its ground after shedding 0.36% to $1,247.24 following greenback’s appreciation.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q2) | 2.0% | 1.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jun) | 610K | 615K | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -4.727M | -2.629M | – |
| 02:00 | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. A breakout from this level would signal an extension of downtrend, towards the next target at 1.3000. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term within the upward channel.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3080
Support level: 1.3025, 1.3000
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel following a rebound from the bottom level. A closure above the resistance level of 1.1655 would suggest EURUSD to extend its gains towards the next target at 1.1680.
Resistance level: 1.1680, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1655, 1.1620
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior rebound and closure above the 20-MA line (red). MACD histogram illustrate substantial upward signal suggests USDJPY to extend its upward momentum after successfully closing above the resistance level of 112.10.
Resistance level: 112.10, 112.55
Support level: 111.50, 110.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the top level near the resistance level of 48.50. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests a chance to occur breakout from the top level and signal an extension of uptrend thereafter.
Resistance level: 48.50, 50.00
Support level: 47.00, 45.25
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price pared its prior gains following a retracement from the previous high at 1258.65. MACD histogram which illustrates downward signal suggests gold price to extend its losses after breaking the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 1245.90.
Resistance level: 1253.00, 1258.65
Support level: 1245.90, 1238.00
250717 Daily Analysis
25 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar grimes near 13-months low.
Greenback lingers near 13-months low against other major peers following upbeat US economic data which has helped to unwind some pessimism over the economy giant. The dollar index rose 0.10% and last quoted at 93.83. On Monday, financial service provider Markit reported that both US manufacturing and services flash surveys gave higher-than-expected reading for the month of July. However, the pair of optimistic data was partly offset by a weaker housing data while US political turmoil remains in check. Investors became worrisome over the policy direction from the White House following last week’s failed attempt to pass an overhauled healthcare bill while further investigation were conducted over alleged links between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia. On the other hand, euro eases 0.06% to $1.1637 against the greenback after data suggests a slowdown in EU’s private sector growth.
In the commodities market, crude oil price gained 0.17% to $46.42 a barrel after OPEC agreed on yesterday that Nigeria would join the pact by capping or cutting its output while Saudi Arabia pledged to limit their exports next month. Otherwise, gold price eases by 0.05% to $1,253.34 while investors look ahead to FOMC’s policy meeting for further clues regarding next interest rate hike.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) | 115.1 | 114.9 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 118.9 | 116.5 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.628M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 1.3060. It is suggested to be traded lower in the short-term and extend its losses towards the target of support level at 1.3000. Likewise, long-term trend direction is suggested to remain traded within the upward channel unless a breakout occurs from either of its sides.
Resistance level: 1.3060, 1.3120
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2915
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 1.1700. Such price action suggests EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests EURUSD to extend its uptrend.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1880
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1370
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 110.60. However, Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a retracement signal from the overbought level suggests USDJPY to be traded lower after successfully closing below the support level of 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.65, 112.30
Support level: 111.00, 110.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended gains following prior rebound near the support level of 45.40. A successful closure above the resistance level of 46.65 would suggest its prices to retest at next target of 47.20.
Resistance level: 46.65, 47.20
Support level: 46.15, 45.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price were traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 1252.00. A successful closure above the 20-MA line (red) would suggest gold price to advance further up and retest at previous high of 1258.00.
Resistance level: 1258.00, 1262.90
Support level: 1252.00, 1246.60
240717 Weekly Analysis
24 July 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 24 – 28
Market Review (Forex): July 17 – 21
U.S. Dollar
Greenback fell to its lowest level in more than a year against other currencies last Friday, pressured by a stronger euro and increasing political uncertainty in Washington. The dollar index was down 0.32% to 93.78, its lowest close since June 22nd, 2016. Overall, the index has ended with a loss of 1.32%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.
Earlier last week, Republican lawmakers pulled their support on the latest version of Trumpcare to replace Obamacare (healthcare bill) has delivered major blow to the Trump’s administration. Concurrently, Bloomberg reported that an investigation into alleged links between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia in last year’s election will be extended into his business dealings, fueling further concern over rising political turmoil in Washington.
Recent progresses that hints political uncertainty has triggered massive selling pressure on the dollar as Trump may face difficulties or delays in delivering his economic policies. Likewise, diminishing doubts over Federal Reserve’s plans for a third rate hike this year was also tied onto greenback’s recent weakness.
USD/JPY
Japanese yen appreciates further as USD/JPY closed near one-month low of 111.12.
EUR/USD
Euro skyrocketed to its highest level in two years against the dollar at $1.1683 following propelled expectations that European Central Bank may soon taper its bond-buying program.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling inches higher against the dollar after rising 0.15% to $1.2993 during late Friday trading.
Market Review (Commodities): July 17 – 21
GOLD
Gold price rose for sixth consecutive session on Friday while notching its largest weekly gain in two months as the greenback continued its downfall to the lowest level in more than a year. Price of the precious metal closed up 0.72% at $1,254.48 while recording a gain of 1.97%. A weaker dollar tends to boost prices for gold, which is denominated in US dollar. Likewise, a lower prospect for an interest rate hike will increase the appeal of gold as an alternative asset when borrowing cost is expected to be kept constant.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled lower last Friday while ending at its lowest level in a week due to soured sentiment following the reports that OPEC supply was set to rise, despite its agreement to freeze daily production levels. Oil prices settled down $1.15 or 2.5% to $45.77 a barrel. Friday’s sharp drop pared its earlier weekly gains with its prices posting a loss up to 1.7% thus far.
Oil prices slumped on Friday after tanker-tracking firm, PetroLogistics reported that crude oil output from OPEC members is set to rise by 145,000 barrels a day in July. The increase in oil supply will push its production level above 33 million barrels per day due to increasing output from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Nigeria.
The news came ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between some members of OPEC and non-OPEC this Monday who will be gathering to discuss overall compliance and adherence in restricting their daily production levels. Meanwhile, US energy services company Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil drilling rigs declined by 1 to 764 thus far, suggesting early signs of diminishing domestic production growth.
Previously, OPEC and some non-OPEC members had extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. However, the production-cut agreement has yet to yield any impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from non-participating countries such as Libya, Nigeria and United States.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active drilling rigs was down by 1 and total count thus far remains at two-years high of 764.
Weekly Outlook: July 24 – 28
For the week ahead, investors will be anticipating the outcome of Wednesday’s US Federal reserve policy meeting while US economic growth data will be released on Friday. Likewise, survey data from the EU zone on Monday will provide some signals regarding the its economic recovery in the euro area. In addition, UK is set to release its second quarter growth reading on Wednesday.
Oil traders will be focusing on Monday’s meeting of major crude producers for further prospect regarding their effort to rebalance the global supply and demand levels. Likewise, traders will also keep an eye on fresh weekly information regarding US crude stockpiles on Tuesday and Wednesday for further market signals.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 24 – 28
| Monday, July 24 |
Data EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (May) USD – Existing Home Sales (Jun)
Events Crude Oil – OPEC Meeting
|
| Tuesday, July 25 |
Data EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Jul) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, July 26 |
Data Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q2) USD – New Home Sales (Jun) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Events USD – FOMC Statement
|
| Thursday, July 27 |
Data USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, July 28
|
Data EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jul) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) CAD – GDP (MoM) (May) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: July 24 – 28
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index broke out from the bottom level of downward channel, signaling the further extension of downtrend. Both MA lines which continue to expand downwards suggests the index to extend its losses towards 93.20.
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.95
Support level: 93.20, 92.45
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2970. Rebound signal from oversold level as seen from the Stochastic Oscillator suggests GBPUSD to extend its gains towards the resistance level of 1.3120.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3260
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2830
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY extended its losses following prior retracement from the top level of ascending triangle. A closure below the support level of 110.85 would suggest USDJPY to advance towards the bottom level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 111.85, 112.85, 114.30
Support level: 110.85, 110.00
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its uptrend following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. The increasing upward momentum from MACD suggests EURUSD to extend its gains after successfully closing above the psychological level of 1.1700.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1880
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1370
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended its gains following prior rebound while currently testing near the resistance level of 1259.00. MACD histogram which illustrates substantial upward signal suggests its price to continue its upward momentum after closing above the level of 1259.00.
Resistance level: 1259.00, 1270.35
Support level: 1247.00, 1232.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price were traded lower following prior retracement near the threshold of 47.00. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggests further downside bias for crude oil price to extend its losses towards the support level of 45.25.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.25, 43.70
210717 Daily Analysis
21 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Draghi came to justify, Euro creeps to two-years high.
Euro stood tall at 22-months high against the greenback on Friday after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi commented that the bank would discuss the next step for its monetary stimulus program in fall. Pair of EUR/USD eased 0.09% to $1.1622 as of writing. Speaking at the ECB post meeting press conference, Draghi stated that the governing council was “unanimous in setting no precise date on when to discuss changes in the future” while adding that the discussion may start during autumn. The shared currency reacted positively as investors deemed the remark as a sign that ECB might not extend its quantitative easing program beyond December. On the other hand, US dollar took another hit on yesterday following the news of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s intention to expand his investigation to look at US President Donald Trump’s business dealing with Russia. Such move may slowdown the introduction of Trump’s pro-growth policies which are deemed to boost the economy. Consequently, the dollar index ticked up 0.02% to 94.10.
Otherwise, crude oil price settled higher at $46.97 while investors await OPEC’s meeting which is scheduled next Monday for further signal regarding their production cut deal. Concurrently, gold price sheds $0.83 to $1,243.97 while on track for a second consecutive weekly gains after easing from a three-weeks high on previous session.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jun) | 5.99B | 4.30B | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 1.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 765 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel following prior retracement from the top level. Both MA line which continues to narrow downward suggests GBPUSD to extend its losses towards the bottom level of the channel after a successful closure below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2920, 1.2855
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.1480. Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests EURUSD to extend its uptrend after breaking the resistance level of 1.1650.
Resistance level: 1.1650, 1.1735
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1480
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 111.65. Such price movement suggests USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction, towards the target of resistance level at 112.30.
Resistance level: 112.30, 113.15
Support level: 111.65, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel while recently closed below the 60-MA line (green). Stochastic Oscillator which begin to show retracement signal suggests crude oil price to be traded lower towards the support level of 46.80. A breakout from the bottom level of the channel will signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 47.15, 47.65
Support level: 46.80, 46.35
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price has extended its gains following prior rebound near the support level of 1238.05. Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards after the formation of golden cross suggests gold price to extend its uptrend after closing above the strong resistance level of 1247.15.
Resistance level: 1247.15, 1253.00
Support level: 1238.05, 1231.70
200717 Daily Analysis
20 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Major central bank speaks, financial market twitch.
Japanese yen was a tad stronger against its US counterpart on Thursday while the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement and interest rate decision should provide some market momentum. Pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.13% to 111.79 as of writing. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to leave its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged while the main theme for today’s event will be their economic projection report. Beforehand, BoJ introduced a massive bond purchasing program in hopes to lift up Japan’s sluggish inflationary pressure. However, recent economic data suggested a weaker response which signals its inability to attain BoJ projected outlook of 2% in the future. Otherwise, the dollar index was held unchanged at 94.52 as overnight’s housing sector data provides some upside support. The better-than-expected building permits and housing starts has helped to offset some pessimism sparked by possible weakness in the economy.
As for commodities, crude oil price settled near one-month high of $47.26 a barrel after Energy Information Administration reported a higher-than-expected draw in the US crude stockpiles by roughly 4.73 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.08% to $1,240.17 as the dollar rebounds from its 11-month low following positive housing sector data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Employment Change (Jun) | 42.0K | 15.0K | 14.0K |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -1.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 247K | 245K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) | 27.6 | 24.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD continues to oscillate in the range of 1.3000 and 1.3050 while recently retraced from the 20-MA line (red). Stochastic Oscillator which provides retracement signal suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term towards 1.3000. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after breaking either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3085
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2965
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1530. Recent formation of death cross by both MA line suggest further downside bias for EURUSD to head towards the support level at 1.1500.
Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1555
Support level: 1.1500, 1.1475
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 111.65. Such price action indicates a pickup in bullish momentum which suggests USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term and head towards the next target at 112.30.
Resistance level: 112.30, 113.15
Support level: 111.65, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above the strong resistance level of 47.00. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggest crude oil price to move further up, towards the top level of downward channel.
Resistance level: 48.50, 50.00
Support level: 47.00, 45.25
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the previous high at 1244.35. Recent closure below the 60-MA line (green) while coupled with downward signal from MACD histogram suggests gold price to extend its losses towards the target at 1235.00.
Resistance level: 1240.00, 1244.35
Support level: 1235.00, 1229.20
190717 Daily Analysis
19 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback bruised as Trumponomics dawdle.
US dollar plunged to its weakest level in 11 months after the latest setback on Republicans effort to repeal and replace Obamacare. The dollar index mends some losses by 0.10% to 94.40 during Asian trading hours. “The reform momentum of Trump’s administration has yet received another blow,” said strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Clearly, anything that comes along at the moment just corroborates the market’s pessimism towards the dollar”. The inability to enact healthcare reform led to questions on Trump’s ability to enact further changes to American tax system in the near future, dampening prior optimism towards Trump’s economic agenda. Otherwise, pound sterling eases by 0.09% to $1.3030 amid yesterday’s weaker-than-expected inflation data. For the month of June, UK’s Consumer Price Index fell to 2.6%, missing economist target of 2.9% while dampening hopes for a rate hike by Bank of England in the near term.
Otherwise, crude oil price sheds 0.32% to $46.25 following a surprise build in US crude inventories. According to American Petroleum Institute, crude stockpiles were up 1.628 million barrels last week, missing expectation for a draw of 3.500 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price held steady near three-weeks high at $1,242.00 following reduced confidence in US President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jun) | 1.168M | 1.200M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun) | -5.5% | 5.8% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (May) | 1.1% | 0.8% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -7.564M | -3.214M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.3050. Recent formation of death cross by both MA line suggests GBPUSD to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 1.3000.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3085
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2965
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high at 1.1580. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggest EURUSD to extend its retracement towards the target of support level at 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1555, 1.1580
Support level: 1.1530, 1.1500
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 111.65. However, as both MA line continues to expand downwards while coupled with increasing downward momentum from MACD, USDJPY is expected to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 111.65.
Resistance level: 112.30, 113.15
Support level: 111.65, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. A successful closure above the resistance level of 46.55 would suggest crude oil price to extend its upward momentum towards the next target at 46.90.
Resistance level: 46.55, 46.90, 47.20
Support level: 46.10, 45.65
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price has extended its gains following previous formation of golden cross by both moving average line. As both lines continue to expand upwards, a rebound from the support level of 1240.20 would suggest gold price continue its prior uptrend.
Resistance level: 1246.75, 1253.00
Support level: 1240.20, 1230.00
180717 Daily Analysis
18 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback relinquished as Trumpcare fades.
US dollar received notable selling pressure on Tuesday following reports that US Republican Senate has rejected President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill yet again. The healthcare bill was largely seen as a litmus test for Trump’s legislative ability and its recent failure signals that he may have a hard time to push through the much-awaited tax and fiscal reforms. The report came into light after previous series of data which has suggested a slowdown in the pace of inflation which may hinder US Federal Reserve from hiking its interest rates this year. Consequently, the dollar index sheds 0.33% and last seen at 94.54 against a basket of six major currencies. In the other region, kiwi was threaded lower following the release of latest inflation reading. For the second quarter, Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, undershooting economist expected rise of 0.2%. The weaker-than-expected data sparks some sell-off on the kiwi, with NZD/USD down 0.20% to 0.7304.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.24% to $46.13 while investors keep an eye on the latest US stockpiles report. Similarly, gold price was up 0.38% to $1,237.54 following investors plight from dollar-bearing assets due to diminishing confidence on Trump’s administration.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
21:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 06:45 | NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 2.9% | 2.9% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) | 18.6 | 18.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | -0.2% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -8.130M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD extended gains following prior rebound from the strong support level of 1.3050. Recent closure above the 20-MA (red) suggest GBPUSD to advance towards the target of resistance level at 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3165
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2990
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. A breakout from the resistance level of 1.1550 would further suggest the upside bias for EURUSD.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1600
Support level: 1.1485, 1.1420
NZDUSD
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD skyrocketed following prior rebound from the 61.8 Fibonacci level at 0.7265 while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.7345. A successful closure above the level of 0.7345 would suggest NZDUSD to advance towards the next target at 0.7365.
Resistance level: 0.7345, 0.7365
Support level: 0.7325, 0.7300
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior breakthrough from the support level of 112.30. Both MA lines which continues to expand further downwards suggests further downside bias towards the next target at 111.65.
Resistance level: 112.30, 113.15
Support level: 111.65, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the support level of 46.15. A closure above the resistance level of 46.50 would suggest crude oil price to extend its gains towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 46.50, 46.90
Support level: 46.15, 45.65
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended gains following prior rebound from the support level of 1230.00. Both MA lines which has formed a golden cross previously suggests further upside bias for gold price towards the target of resistance level at 1240.20
Resistance level: 1240.20, 1246.75
Support level: 1230.00, 1220.00
170717 Weekly Analysis
17 July 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 17 – 21
Market Review (Forex): July 10 – 14
U.S. Dollar
Greenback fell to its lowest level since October against other major peers last Friday following weak US inflation and retail sales data which has added more doubts on Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates again this year. The dollar index fell 0.69% to 94.90, its lowest since October 5th.
According to the Labor Department, US consumer price inflation slowed down to 1.6% in June as compared to 1.9% in May. Consumer spending were also weaker-than-expected with retail sales tumbling 0.2% last month as compared to expected rise of 0.1%. The Fed hiked its rates last month which sticking to their forecast for one more rate hike this year. However, overall sluggish outlook for inflation has raised questions over their ability to follow through such plans.
In a testimony before the US Congress on Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen postulate that the economy is strong enough for the Fed to raise interest rates again and wind down its massive bond portfolio. However, she reiterated that the current inflation pressure is still below its target and noted particular uncertainty that could affect their monetary policy in the future.
US Inflation Rate
—– Forecast
US inflation rate for year-over-year comparison came in at 1.6% for the month of June, less than economist expectation of 1.7%.
US Retail Sales
—– Forecast
US retail sales shrank by 0.2% for last month, indicating a slowdown in personal consumption.
USD/JPY
Pairing of USD/JPY was down 0.65% to 112.53 on Friday.
EUR/USD
Euro added up 0.62% to $1.1469, closing in near 14-months high of $1.1488.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling skyrocketed 1.24% to $1.3099, its highest level since September 2016.
Market Review (Commodities): July 10 – 14
GOLD
Gold price rose to two-weeks high on Friday as weak US inflation data spurs higher doubts on Federal Reserve’s ability to raise its interest rates for the third time by year end. The price of the yellow metal rose 0.95% while closing the week at $1,228.88. For the week, the precious metal has gained 1.32%. Expectations that rates will stay low tend to boost gold price, which struggles to compete with yield bearing assets once borrowing cost rises.
Crude Oil
Oil prices settled higher for fifth consecutive session on Friday while scoring a weekly gain of 5% as investors cheered data that suggests a pick up in oil demand for second half of 2017. Its prices were up 46 cents or 1% and ended the week at $46.54 a barrel. For the week, it has gained $2.31 or 5%, propped up by reports of accelerating demand growth from the International Energy Agency and crude oil import growth in China while coupled with falling crude stocks in the US.
Despite recent gains, concerns over rising global supplies continues to surround the oil market and capping its gains. According to US oilfield service provider Baker Hughes, the number of active oil drilling rig was up by 2 to a total count of 765, its highest since April 2015. Such addition underlined the concern that ongoing rebound of US shale production may derail other producer’s effort to rebalance the oil market.
Previously, OPEC and some non-OPEC members had extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. However, the production-cut agreement has yet to yield any impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from non-participating countries such as Libya, Nigeria and United States.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
US drillers has added 2 oil rigs last week, bringing in to a total of 765.
Weekly Outlook: July 17 – 21
For the week ahead, investors will be turning their focus to the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting for fresh clues on when it will reduce its ultra-easy monetary policy. Likewise, China’s data on second quarter growth alongside with UK’s inflation data will be closely watched as well.
As for oil traders, they will keep an eye on fresh weekly information regarding US stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the US. Likewise, comments from global oil producers will be sidelined to gain further evidence of their compliance towards the agreement to reduce its daily output levels.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 17 – 21
| Monday, July 17 |
Data CNY – GDP (YoY) (Q2) CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jun) USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, July 18 |
Data NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jun) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
Events AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
| Wednesday, July 19 |
Data Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock USD – Building Permits (Jun) USD – Housing Starts (Jun) CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (May) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, July 20 |
Data AUD – Employment Change (Jun) JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) EUR – Deposit Facility Rate EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Events JPY – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY) JPY – BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) JPY – BoJ Press Conference EUR – ECB Press Conference
|
|
Friday, July 21
|
Data GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jun) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: July 17 – 21
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remained traded within a downward channel while recently closed below the strong support of 95.15. Such price action suggests dollar index to extend its downside bias towards the bottom level of the channel in short-term.
Resistance level: 95.15, 96.20
Support level: 94.00, 93.20
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD extended gains following prior rebound near the support level of 1.2830. Both MA lines which has formed a golden cross suggests GBPUSD to extend its upward momentum after successfully closing above the resistance level of 1.3120.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3260
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2830
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within an ascending triangle following prior retracement from the top level. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggests USDJPY to be traded lower in short-term, towards the support level 111.85.
Resistance level: 112.85, 114.30
Support level: 111.85, 110.85
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its uptrend following recent rebound near the 20-MA line (red). Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests EURUSD to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1.1540.
Resistance level: 1.1540, 1.1640
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1325
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended its gains following prior rebound near the support level of 1217.00. Recent closure above the 20-MA line (red) suggests gold price to extend its upward momentum after successfully closing above the resistance level of 1232.00.
Resistance level: 1232.00, 1247.00
Support level: 1217.00, 1200.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price were traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 45.25. A closure above the strong resistance level of 47.00 would suggest crude oil price to extend its upward momentum towards the upper level of downward channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.25, 43.70
140717 Daily Analysis
14 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Yellen haunts the dollar, inflation resonate its momentum.
US dollar stabilizes on Friday against other major currencies while Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony which did not sound as hawkish as many had anticipated continued to cap its gains. The dollar index ticked up 0.05% to 95.55 as of writing. “The US economy is healthy enough for the Fed to raise interest rates and winding down its massive bond portfolio, though low inflation may leave the central bank with diminished leeway,” said Yellen at her semi-annual appearance before the Congress. Economist postulate that the overall speech sounded dovish but mainly due to her attempt to address various concerns at once. “Our data suggests that US inflation is picking up again and the Fed appears to still be in a position to continue hiking interest rates.” Said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager for State Street Bank and Trust in Tokyo. Otherwise, Australian dollar continues to march further following higher commodity prices and a weaker dollar. Pairing of AUD/USD was up 0.12% to near four-months high of $0.7740.
Otherwise, crude oil price was down 0.13% to $46.02 a barrel while investors will be eyeing on US Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs for further drilling activity signals. Likewise, gold price sheds 0.06% to $1,215.55 as dollar regains some traction during Asian trading hours.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 95.1 | 95.0 | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 763 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. MACD histogram which illustrate substantial upward signal suggests GBPUSD to advance further up towards the resistance level of 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the bottom level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. MACD indicator which shows diminishing upward momentum suggest further bearish pressure for EURUSD after closing below the support level of 1.1385.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
AUDUSD
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD has recently closed above the top level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to extend further upwards. A successful closure above the resistance level of 0.7750 would suggest AUDUSD to advance further up.
Resistance level: 0.7750, 0.7800
Support level: 0.7700, 0.7660
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior inability to close above the strong resistance level at 113.50. A strong selling pressure from this level suggests USDJPY to be traded lower in short-term towards the direction of support level at 113.25.
Resistance level: 113.50, 113.65
Support level: 113.25, 112.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of the narrowing triangle. Recent retracement suggests crude oil price to be traded lower in short-term and heading towards the support level of 45.30.
Resistance level: 46.15, 47.30
Support level: 45.30, 44.65
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 60-MA line (green). Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggest gold price to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 1207.00.
Resistance level: 1220.00, 1230.00, 1240.70
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00
130717 Daily Analysis
13 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Yellen quotes uncertainty, dollar hanging by a thread.
US dollar was capped against other major currencies on early Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen did not sound as hawkish as many had anticipated. The dollar index was eased 0.04% and last quoted around 95.44. Despite Yellen’s testimony which signal a “gradual” pace of tightening in interest rates, she also rebuffs the idea of adopting an aggressive rate hike path which the Fed believes it is not far from the neutral rate. Furthermore, she also emphasized that current inflation pressure is below their target and noted a particular uncertainty which could affect their monetary policy stance. On the other hand, Canadian dollar stood tall near 13-months high of $1.2748 following Bank of Canada’s decision to hike interest rate for the first time since 2010. In a statement, the bank explained that the growth is strengthening across the economy and has become more sustainable. However, the bank also acknowledges the recent softness in inflation while stated that the factors behind it are temporary and adjustment to lower oil price has largely complete.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.29% to $45.36 despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories. In a monthly report released by OPEC, it was indicated that the cartel’s output rose 1.4% to 32.61 million barrels a day in June despite production-cut plans which gives contradicting signals to investors. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.19% to $1,220.47 due to pessimism on the dollar following Yellen’s dovish stance.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
22:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:30 | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) | 40.81B | 42.44B | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 248K | 245K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | -0.1% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD re-entered into the downward channel following prior rebound from strong support level near 1.2800. Recent closure above the 20-MA line (red) suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term, towards the top level of the downward channel.
Resistance level: 1.2925, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.1440 would suggest further upward bias to extend its gains towards 1.1480 thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
USDCAD
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD plunged sharply following prior failure to extend its prices beyond the 60-MA line (green). Both MA lines which begins to expand further down suggests USDCAD to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 1.2735.
Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2850
Support level: 1.2735, 1.2680
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior retracement from the previous high of 114.50. A closure below the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 113.15 would suggest USDJPY to extend its losses towards the next target at 112.30.
Resistance level: 113.80, 114.50
Support level: 113.15, 112.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price were traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 43.70. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal from oversold region suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term after a successful rebound from the support level of 45.25.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.25, 43.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red) while currently testing at the resistance level of 1220.00. A successful closure above this level would suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum in short-term and head towards the top level of the downward channel.
Resistance level: 1220.00, 1230.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00