031018 Afternoon Session Analysis
3 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar falls amid Italy’s new budget plan.
The dollar index retraced from its psychological level at 95.15 after Italy’s Government announced a revised budget plan. Yesterday’s plan of 2.4% Deficit-to-GDP will be reduced to 2% by 2021, while the country’s debt-to-GDP estimated at 131% is under planned by the government to lower it down to 127% by 2021. The sentiment boosted the euro while turning bad for the dollar, which fell by 0.16% to 94.90 during early European trading session. In other news, the pair EUR/USD was seen regaining its bullish momentum right after Italy announced its new budget plan. The pair surge as much as 30 pips and is currently written at 1.1584. Investors confidence was boosted by the sentiment and decided to move their portfolio to pro-euro.
As for commodities, crude oil price continues to recover by 0.33% to $75.30 per barrel during Asian session due to the worsening sentiment on Iran sanctions its deadline approaches. On the other hand, gold price retraced some of its gains by 0.04% to $1,202.30 a troy ounce as a minor technical correction.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
04:00 (4th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Sep) | 54.3 | 54.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) | 163K | 187K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 56.7 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 58.5 | 58.1 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.852M | 1.985M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: The dollar was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 95.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 94.50.
Resistance level: 95.30, 95.60
Support level 94.50, 93.90
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was recently traded higher while currently testing the bearish trend line. MACD which illustrate a bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the trend line or the resistance level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2940, 1.2820
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1570. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1615.
Resistance level: 1.1615, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1530
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was recently traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 113.05.
Resistance level: 114.05, 114.70
Support level: 113.55, 113.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7215. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7160.
Resistance level: 0.7215, 0.7295
Support level: 0.7160, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6595. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6595, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2785. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2840.
Resistance level: 1.2840, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2965, 1.3065
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel at the middle level. MACD which display starting bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout from the channel or above the resistance level 0.9875.
Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9900
Support level: 0.9815, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level 75.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 74.85.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level 74.85, 72.80
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1208.45. MACD which illustrate a persistent bullish momentum suggest the retracement to be a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1208.45, 1212.65
Support level: 1203.30, 1196.00
031018 Morning Session Analysis
3 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Powell reiterates to act upon inflation.
Greenback rebounds from its session low on Wednesday following receding political conditions in the EU while investors continue to digest a rather bullish speech delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier today. The dollar index was up 0.19%, last seen at 95.08 while pair of EUR/USD depreciates by 0.05% to 1.1545. With regards to Powell speech, he feels that the economy is approaching a “historical era” whereby the jobs market continues to inch towards ultra-low unemployment conditions. While Powell expects the inflation target to hover at 2%, he reiterates that the Feds will “act with authority” in the event of an inflation spike in the future. In the euro’s front, the single common currency received tremendous bearish pressure following Italy’s dispute with European Union over its proposed budget. EU officials warned the Italian government over its plans following a deficit target of 2.4% of their GDP may tip the bloc back into financial crisis.
As for commodities, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.16% to $75.42 per barrel during Asian session. On yesterday, the commodity price experienced slight retracement after investors book their profit upon hitting 4 years high. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.12% to $1,204.51 a troy ounce over the backdrop of heightened political crisis in the EU.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
04:00 (4th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – Services PMI (Sep) | 54.7 | 54.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Sep) | 54.3 | 54.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) | 163K | 187K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 56.7 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 58.5 | 58.1 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.852M | 1.985M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: The dollar was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 95.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 94.50.
Resistance level: 95.30, 95.60
Support level 94.50, 93.90
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was recently traded higher following prior rebound from the psychological level 1.2980. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2940, 1.2820
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1570. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1615.
Resistance level: 1.1615, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1530
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was recently traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 113.05.
Resistance level: 114.05, 114.70
Support level: 113.55, 113.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7215. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7160.
Resistance level: 0.7215, 0.7295
Support level: 0.7160, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6595. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6595, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 1.2820. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2670
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel at the middle level. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout from the channel or below the support level 0.9815.
Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9900
Support level: 0.9815, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level 75.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 74.85.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level 74.85, 72.80
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1208.45. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1208.45, 1212.65
Support level: 1203.30, 1196.00
021018 Afternoon Session Analysis
2 October 2018 Afernoon Session Analysis
Dollar strengthened amid new NAFTA.
Greenback gained its bullish momentum as the NAFTA negotiations progressed to the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USCMA) as US and Canada came into an agreement which affects Canada’a dairies market and Automobile industry. United States farmers will have more access to Canada’s dairies market as well as higher wage pay of not less than $16 an hour at North America Auto industry. Investors sentiment now move towards a bullish momentum for the dollar which surged by 0.18% to 95.10 as of writing. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD turned bearish, declining by 0.39% to 0.7195 this early European trading session. The Aussie was seen increasing moments before their RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement, which reported a 1.50% interest rate as expected.
For the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $75.60 per barrel, its highest level since late 2014. The crude market continues to gain bullish sentiment amid Iran sanctions which expects a major decline in supply. On the other hand, gold price surged by 0.42% to $1193.60 a troy ounce despite the gain in dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
22:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
00:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Sep) | 52.9 | 52.8 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.903M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 94.95. MACD which illustrate starting bullish signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 95.50.
Resistance level: 95.00, 96.30
Support level: 94.95, 94.60
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 50.0 psychological level at 1.3040. MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2905
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1570. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1570, 1.1615
Support level: 1.1530, 1.1465
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 114.15. MACD which display bearish bias and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 113.55.
Resistance level: 114.15, 114.70
Support level: 113.55, 113.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the psychological level. MACD which illustrate a starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the psychological level.
Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7260
Support level: 0.7230, 0.7200
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6595. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the support level 0.6595 is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6690
Support level: 0.6595, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2820. MACD which display a starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2670
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9815. MACD which illustrate a starting bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to traded lower as a technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9900
Support level: 0.9815, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the psychological level 75.74. MACD which illustrate a persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the psychological level.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level: 72.80, 71.25
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the 38.2 psychological level at 1192.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the psychological level and the bearish trend line.
Resistance level: 1196.00, 1203.30
Support level: 1191.10, 1186.80
021018 Morning Session Analysis
2 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains resilient, all eyes on RBA.
US dollar recuperates its losses from yesterday while investors anticipates the release of interest rate decision from Reserve Bank of Australia scheduled this afternoon. The dollar index notched up 0.01%, last quoted around 94.90 during Asian session. Yesterday, US dollar received some downward pressure after Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Manufacturing PMI for the month of September tumbled slightly to 59.8 versus forecast of 60.1. However, losses were limited after employment facet of the data – ISM Manufacturing Employment came in with a higher reading of 58.8 versus forecast of 58.1. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD extended gains by 0.01% to 1.3043 this morning. Overnight, pound sterling spiked upwards after news reported that UK plans to compromise on Irish border issue in order to move forward with a Brexit plan. However, the compromise will be used as a last resort if a deal is not reached and it would be conditional for UK to have full access to EU custom union.
Looking into commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.63% to $75.53 per barrel, its highest level since late 2014. Bulls market continues to bet on the commodity following heightened worries that Iranian sanction may lead to a significant decrease of oil supply in the global market with a reduction of up to 1.5 million barrels per day. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat around $1,189.38 a troy ounce while resilient greenback prevents any significant recovery of the commodity price.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
22:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
00:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Sep) | 52.9 | 52.8 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.903M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement near 95.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending wedge following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the level 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following previous rebound before the support level near 1.1550. MACD which shows diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1495
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the psychological level at 114.00. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards 113.70.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35
Support level: 113.70, 113.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the upper level. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.7240, 0.7260
Support level: 0.7230, 0.7200
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance near 0.6615.
Resistance level: 0.6615, 0.6640
Support level: 0.6590, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat while currently testing near the threshold of 1.2800. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the strong support of 1.2800.
Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2720
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded thinly while currently testing near the resistance of 0.9850. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9850, 0.9885
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9760
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 73.40. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 75.60.
Resistance level: 75.60, 76.15
Support level: 74.60, 73.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1184.00. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
011018 Afternoon Session Analysis
1 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
US-Canada reaches NAFTA agreement.
US dollar slipped against the Canadian dollar on Monday after United States and Canada reached an agreement over a framework deal that would update the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) this morning. Pair of USD/CAD plunged 0.53% to 1.2841 during European trading sessions. According to sources with direct knowledge of the talks, both countries have reportedly reached consensus which involved offering more dairy access to US farmers as well as Canada agreeing to an arrangement that would cap automobile exports into United States. The agreement has sent bullish bets on the Canadian dollar after the currency being sold largely due to both countries prior inability to reached a common ground. On the other hand, the dollar index defends its position, up 0.07% to 94.78 while investors continue to monitor upcoming economic data from the United States for further signals.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.08% to $73.55 per barrel, ahead of US sanction against Iran, the third largest producer in OPEC which could dent global crude supplies. On the other hand, gold price extended losses by 0.29% to $1,188.61 a troy ounce following bullish rebound of the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – National Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
00:15 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 53.7 | 53.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 52.8 | 52.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 58.5 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 61.3 | 60.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound and closure above 94.65. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the target of 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its bearish momentum, towards the target at 1.2985.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2895, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following breakout from the support level near 1.1675. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target at 1.1550.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1495
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance of 113.70. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the threshold of 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35
Support level: 113.70, 113.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its towards the direction of 0.7200.
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7200, 0.7175
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its towards the support level near 0.6600.
Resistance level: 0.6620, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6575
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD plunged sharply after breaking the strong support near 1.2900. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support near 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2750
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following prior rebound near the support of 0.9760. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above 0.9810.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9850
Support level: 0.9760, 0.9710
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking 73.55.
Resistance level: 73.55, 75.00
Support level: 71.35, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the trendline. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1184.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 1 – 5
| Monday, October 1 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, October 2 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, October 3 |
Data GBP – Services PMI (Sep) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
| Thursday, October 4 |
Data USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, October 5
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) CAD – Employment Change (Sep)
Events N/A
|
011018 Morning Session Analysis
1 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
CAD shines as GDP exceeds expectation.
Greenback opened the week at a lower level this morning over-the-backdrop of bleak US economic data which were released last Friday. The dollar index which measures its strength against six major currencies depreciates by 0.03% to 94.63. In the economics’ front, US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index was flat for the month of August, underwhelming economist expectation for a growth of 0.1%. Similarly, University of Michigan reported a slight depreciation in US Consumer Sentiment, down to 100.1 versus expected reading of 100.5 for the month of September. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD extended its losses by 0.46% to $1.2851 during early Asian trading session. The Canadian dollar received higher demand after Gross Domestic Product for the month of July expands at a faster pace with 0.2% versus forecast of 0.1%.
As for commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.11% to $73.70 per barrel. Crude prices received some bearish pressure after US President Donald Trump was reportedly contacted Saudi Arabia’s King Salman last weekend and discussed efforts being made to ensure global oil market stability. The call came a day after Trump criticized OPEC for high oil prices and requests the cartel to boost their output. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.11% to $1,190.69 a troy ounce while higher prospect for a future US rate hike keeps limits the upside of the commodity.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – National Day
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
00:15 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 53.7 | 53.7 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 52.8 | 52.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 58.5 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 61.3 | 60.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound and closure above 94.65. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the target of 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its bearish momentum, towards the target at 1.2985.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2895, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following breakout from the support level near 1.1675. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target at 1.1550.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1495
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance of 113.70. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the threshold of 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35
Support level: 113.70, 113.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7200, 0.7175
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6620, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6575
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD plunged sharply after breaking the strong support near 1.2900. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support near 1.2820.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2820, 1.2750
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following prior rebound near the support of 0.9760. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above 0.9810.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9850
Support level: 0.9760, 0.9710
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking 73.55.
Resistance level: 73.55, 75.00
Support level: 71.35, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the trendline. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1184.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 1 – 5
| Monday, October 1 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q3) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, October 2 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, October 3 |
Data GBP – Services PMI (Sep) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
| Thursday, October 4 |
Data USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, October 5
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) CAD – Employment Change (Sep)
Events N/A
|
280918 Afternoon Session Analysis
28 September 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar remains strong amid Fed’s rate hike comments.
Dollar index remains its strength in early European trading session after surging two weeks high yesterday amid US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that gradual rate hikes is a good way to sustained economy growth. The dollar index rose 0.06% to 94.56 as of writing. Powell’s remarks were followed after hiking in interest rates for a third time this year and in schedule for additional hikes next year. With all the positive sentiment surrounding the dollar this week, investors are shifting their portfolio towards the dollar thus pushing the dollar higher. In other news, the Australian dollar managed to regained its strength against the dollar amid today’s morning economic data of Private Sector Credit for the month of August where the actual data of 0.5% was report higher than the forecasted data of 0.4%.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciated by 0.10% to $72.24 per barrel amid the uncertainty over the potential impact on crude supply due to Iran sanctions. On the other hand, gold price plunged by 0.06% to $1,181.90 a troy ounce while the dollar continues its bullish momentum.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.0% | 2.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Aug) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jul) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) | 100.8 | 100.5 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 866 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher follow prior breakout above the previous resistance level 94.50. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 94.80.
Resistance level: 94.80, 95.50
Support level: 94.50, 93.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3065. MACD which display a bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3065, 1.2975
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1680. Recent price action and MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1615.
Resistance level: 1.1680, 1.1730
Support level: 1.1615, 1.1530
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 113.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 113.00.
Resistance level: 113.55, 114.15
Support level: 113.00, 112.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7215. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a retracement from the resistance level 0.7215.
Resistance level: 0.7215, 0.7295
Support level: 0.7135, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6635. Recent price movement and MACD which display persistent bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6595.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6690
Support level: 0.6595, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3065. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses in the short-term.
Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2900
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded thinly near the support level of 0.9755. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains in the short-term.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9875
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9700
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing near the mid-level of the triangle. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to be traded higher after a breakout above the triangle and resistance level 72.40.
Resistance level: 72.40, 73.00
Support level: 71.25, 70.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1186.80. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1180.50.
Resistance level: 1186.80, 1191.10
Support level: 1180.50, 1173.60
280918 Morning Session Analysis
28 September 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Hawkish Fed charges up dollar’s bull.
Greenback rose to two-weeks high against other major currencies on yesterday after Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected while coupled with positive US economic data. The dollar index rose 0.12%, last seen around 94.56 during Asian session. On yesterday morning, US Federal Reserve increased their overnight funds rate as expected while delivered a rather optimistic assessment of the US economy. In addition, US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that Gross Domestic Product for the 2nd quarter came in as expected with 4.2% of growth. The data has further cemented Fed’s outlook for a progressive economic growth, raising investors’ prospect towards more rate hikes in the future. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD slipped 0.05% to 1.3035 this morning. Canadian dollar received fresh demand after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that they would gradually raise interest rates if NAFTA negotiations attains positive outcome.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.08% to $72.42 per barrel and undergo minor retracement after rising to 4 year’s high on yesterday. Similarly, gold price was down 0.03% to $1,183.19 a troy ounce over the backdrop of hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 50.6 | 50.5 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Sep) | -8K | -9K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.0% | 2.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Aug) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jul) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) | 100.8 | 100.5 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 866 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance level of 94.00. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level near 94.65.
Resistance level: 94.65, 95.00
Support level: 94.00, 93.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended losses following prior breakout from the support level of 1.3100. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3055, 1.2985
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level near 1.1675. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1675, 1.1730
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1550
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level near 113.40. Both MA line which continues to expand upwards after the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to further extend its bullish momentum.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.00
Support level: 113.40, 113.05
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near 0.7200. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7240
Support level: 0.7200, 0.7175
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at 0.6615. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 0.6615.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6615, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement near 1.3050. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat near the support level of 0.9760. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term after breaking the support of 0.9760.
Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9850
Support level: 0.9760, 0.9710
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 72.50, 73.40
Support level: 71.75, 71.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price slumped sharply after breaking the strong support near 1192.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses towards next target of 1177.00.
Resistance level: 1184.00, 1192.00
Support level: 1177.00, 1171.80
270918 Afternoon Session Analysis
27 September 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar surged in reacting to Fed’s rate hike.
Dollar index surged to new high since last week after US Federal Reserve raised their interest rates as expected for the eighth time, achieving the forecasted value of 2.25% compared to the previous interest rate of 2.00% while at the same time removing its’ ‘accommodative’ policy which provided positive sentiment to investors as they will expect another rate hike by the end of this year. The dollar increased by 0.34% to 94.10 as of writing. On the other hand, New Zealand’s Kiwi fell by 0.30% to 0.6640 as of writing. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained their interest rate unchanged at record low of 1.75% where it is expected to remains the same throughout 2019 and 2020. However, due to the risks of their growth outlook, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr stated that the rate might change according to current economy situation and gloomy business confidence which possess the chance of hurting overall investment and economic growth.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.57% to $72.40 per barrel after US ruled out the usage of emergency crude reserve that may offset the lack of crude supply from Iran. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.33% to $1194.00 as dollar surges from the late reaction of investors towards yesterday’s Fed rate hike.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
21:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
22:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
04:30 (28th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
05:45 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Oct) | 10.5 | 10.6 | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 4.2% | 4.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.7% | -0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 93.90. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 94.30.
Resistance level: 94.30, 94.80
Support level: 93.90, 93.40
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3175. Recent price action and MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3215
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3055
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1690. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1.1690.
Resistance level: 1.1730, 1.1770
Support level: 1.1690, 1.1645
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance 112.85. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 112.50.
Resistance level: 112.85, 113.10
Support level: 112.50, 112.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7215. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 0.7215.
Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7355
Support level: 0.7215, 0.7135
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6635. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 0.6635.
Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6595
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was recently traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3045. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3105
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2900
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous support level 0.9675. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9700.
Resistance level: 0.9700, 0.9755
Support level: 0.9675, 0.9650
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was higher while currently testing near the resistance level 72.40. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 72.40.
Resistance level: 72.40, 73.00
Support level: 71.25, 70.45
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near resistance level 1196.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a retracement from the resistance level 1196.00.
Resistance level: 1196.00, 1203.30
Support level: 1191.10, 1186.80
270918 Morning Session Analysis
27 September 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Fed: Accommodative policy era comes to an end.
Greenback edged higher earlier today after US Federal Reserve raise their interest rates as expected for the eighth time, indicating for more future rate hikes and signaled the end of “accommodative” policy era. The dollar index ticks up 0.04%, last quoted around 93.78. Fed policymakers raised their benchmark rate by 25-basis points to a range of 2.00% – 2.25%. The central bank also removed the keyword “accommodative” from their policy statement, reiterates for further rate hikes in the future as unemployment heads towards multi decades low. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD rose 0.08% to 1.3031 during Asian trading session. Canadian dollar received some bearish pressure after US President Donald Trump threatens again to impose tariffs upon Canadian-manufacturing automobiles while current NAFTA negotiation between US-Canada entrenched in immovable positions.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.58% to $72.73 per barrel after US Energy Secretary Rick Perry stated that the nation’s strategic oil reserves would not be utilized to expand global crude supplies. Similarly, gold price rose 0.22% to $1,197.08 a troy ounce after investors rushed in to buy back the commodity from a lower price point.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
21:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
22:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
04:30 (28th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
05:45 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Oct) | 10.5 | 10.6 | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 4.2% | 4.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug) | -0.7% | -0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index has recently broken out from the top level of descending channel. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the 94.00 threshold.
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.65
Support level: 93.40, 93.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has illustrated negative divergence signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3100
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking out from the bottom level of the channel and support near 1.1730.
Resistance level: 1.1800, 1.1855
Support level: 1.1730, 1.1660
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 113.05, 113.40
Support level: 112.65, 112.15
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support near 0.7240.
Resistance level: 0.7260, 0.7280
Support level: 0.7240, 0.7230
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6615, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance level of 1.3010. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the next target of 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9680, 0.9710
Support level: 0.9645, 0.9590
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking the strong resistance near 72.50.
Resistance level: 72.50, 73.40
Support level: 71.75, 71.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bullish signal suggests gold price to be traded higher in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1207.75, 1218.65
Support level: 1194.30, 1184.00
260918 Afternoon Session Analysis
26 September 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar remains flat ahead of Fed rate hike.
Dollar remained traded flat against a basket of six major currencies during Asian trading session while investors awaits a direction for the price of the dollar from the results of the rate hike by the Fed during its meeting later today. The dollar succeeded in regaining its strength yesterday after the releasement of US economic data CB Consumer Confidence which created temporary positive sentiment for investors. The economic data had an actual reading of 138.4 which was much higher than the forecasted reading of 132.2, reaching 18-year high. The dollar index rose 0.01% to 93.70 as of writing. On the other hand, pound sterling fell by 0.03% to 1.3175 after hitting a fresh high yesterday. Reports stated that UK Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated that a no-deal Brexit will be better than a bad Brexit deal. The middle-ground offer by EU chiefs from Brussels was rejected by May as the offer involves the north Ireland border disagreement which could potentially harm the economy ties between England, Wales and Scotland.
As for commodities market, crude oil price surged by 0.29% to $72.24 per barrel despite US promised to make sure the sufficiency of supplies before the sanction on Iran goes into effect. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.11% to $1,199.65 a troy ounce as investors awaits the outcome of Fed’s interest rate decision.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (27th) USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
05:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
05:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Aug) | 627K | 630K | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.057M | -1.279M | – |
| 02:00 (27th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.00% | 2.25% | – |
| 05:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of signals from the MACD, a breakout above or below the channel or resistance and support is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 93.90, 94.25
Support level: 93.40, 93.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3175. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.3175.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3215
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3055
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1770. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.1770.
Resistance level: 1.1770, 1.1800
Support level: 1.1730, 1.1690
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 112.85. MACD which display a bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 112.85, 113.20
Support level: 112.50, 112.20
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7270. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7215.
Resistance level: 0.7270, 0.7315
Support level: 0.7215, 0.7185
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6665. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6615.
Resistance level: 0.6665, 0.6715
Support level: 0.6615, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2900. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.2975, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2840
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9650. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.9605.
Resistance level: 0.9650, 0.9675
Support level: 0.9605, 0.9580
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was recently traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 72.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 72.40.
Resistance level: 72.40, 73.00
Support level: 71.25, 70.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing near the mid-level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1203.30.
Resistance level: 1203.30, 1208.45
Support level: 1196.00, 1191.10
260918 Morning Session Analysis
26 September 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Investors awaits as Fed delivers interest rate decision.
Greenback was traded sideways against other major currencies on yesterday, shrugging off optimistic US economic data while investors look ahead to the conclusion of two-day policy meeting from the Federal Reserve. The dollar index rose 0.03% while last seen around 94.16 during Asian session. Overnight, Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge rose to 138.4 in September, its highest level in almost 18 years due to optimistic sentiment towards the economy. However, the data failed to catalyzed larger bullish momentum on the greenback while investors awaits interest rate decision from the Feds which is expected to culminate a 25-basis point interest hike to a range of 2.00% – 2.25%. On the other hand, pound sterling hits fresh highs on yesterday after UK Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her confidence in keeping to Brexit schedule. Pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.03% to 1.3175 this morning.
As for commodities market, crude oil price tumbled down 0.22% to $72.19 per barrel after American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude oil stocks last week by 2.903 million barrels. Likewise, gold price was down by 0.03% to $1,200.50 a troy ounce as investors awaits the outcome of Fed’s interest rate decision.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (27th) USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
05:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
05:00 NZD RBNZ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Aug) | 627K | 630K | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.057M | -1.279M | – |
| 02:00 (27th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.00% | 2.25% | – |
| 05:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a break above the channel is required to further validate the upside bias.
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.65
Support level: 93.40, 93.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3100
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from resistance level near 1.1800. MACD histogram which illustrate death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1800, 1.1855
Support level: 1.1730, 1.1660
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the top level. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a break above the channel is required to affirm current upside bias.
Resistance level: 113.05, 113.70
Support level: 112.15, 111.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of next target near 0.7300.
Resistance level: 0.7300, 0.7325
Support level: 0.7250, 0.7210
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its bullish bias after breaking the resistance near 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6615, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. Although MACD illustrate bullish bias, a close above 1.2955 is required to further validate its bullish signal.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 0.9680, 0.9710
Support level: 0.9645, 0.9590
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Although MACD illustrate bearish signal, a break below the channel is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 72.30, 72.90
Support level: 71.10, 69.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing near the mid-level. As recent price action and MACD does not illustrate prominent signal, it is suggested to wait for further signal to emerge before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1207.75, 1218.65
Support level: 1194.30, 1184.00
240918 Weekly Analysis
24 September 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: September 24 – 28
Market Review (Forex): September 17 – September 21
US Dollar
The US dollar bounced up from its 2-month low drop before closing on Friday’s market after Brexit headline which caused investors’ sentiment to turn negative towards the riskier assets such as the sterling. Dollar index edged up by 0.32% while closing the price at 94.22 last Friday.
The concerns over Brexit grew on Friday as the EU rejected UK Prime Minister Theresa May post-Brexit plans, adding that the UK and EU are reaching an impossible progress for the post-Brexit deal which immediately changed investors’ sentiment towards riskier assets and shifting their portfolio into the safer dollar. Greenback also managed to bounce higher after the release of US economic data Manufacturing PMI for the month of September which had higher actual reading of 55.6 compared to the forecasted reading of 55.0.
Overall, the dollar managed to regain some of its strength against its rivals after its biggest weekly drop in the past 7 months. The price of the dollar for this week will depend solely on the interest rate decision by the Fed on Wednesday as well as US President Donald Trump’s next move in the trade wars.
USD/JPY
USDJPY pair rose 0.11% to 112.60 during late Friday trading session.
EUR/USD
EURUSD had dropped 0.24% to 1.1749 during last week Friday session.
GBP/USD
GBPUSD had plunged 1.46% to 1.3069 during late Friday New York session. The single currency lost all its gains during the week as concerns grew amid UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s comment on the post-Brexit deal being impasse as the EU rejects May’s post-Brexit plans.
Market Review (Commodities): September 17 – September 21
GOLD
Gold price plunged as dollar strengthened amid Brexit concerns and strong US Manufacturing PMI. The yellow metal closed last week markets at a loss of 0.64% to 1199.44 a troy ounce.
The gold price was seen falling as the greenback started regaining a bullish momentum amid Brexit concerns and a positive sentiment from the US Manufacturing PMI economic data.
Crude Oil
The price of crude oil closed the market at a higher price despite US President Donald Trump’s Tweet stated that the OPEC should stop oil price increase and lower its prices as soon as possible. The commodity price spiraled up by 0.75% to $71.09 per barrel during last Friday’s session.
The crude oil started the week at a lower price amid increasing tension in the trade war between the US and China as China retaliated US $200 billion tariffs by imposing tariffs on $60 billion of US goods which caused the price of crude oil to fall. The commodity successfully regained its strength before closing on Friday despite the Tweet from President Donald Trump where he furiously stated that the OPEC who are monopolizing the market are increasing its price ridiculously and it should start lowering the prices. Investors shrugged off that Tweet and focus on the upcoming weekly oil rig count data which will be a major indicator of demand for oil products. On the other hand, the surged in crude oil price was also capped as investors fear of the report that the OPEC were expected to discuss a 500k barrel per day increased in production.
Overall, crude oil price can be seen increasing for the past week as investors’ sentiment towards the crude oil remained positive for the week despite all the bad news, probably due to the closing in of Iran sanctions which will be held effect early November.
Weekly Outlook: September 24 – 28
For the week ahead, investors will remain focus on the release of various economics data especially UK GDP which is scheduled on this week. The data which is an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. Thus, investor will keep an eye for the release to attain further signals regards of the pound sterling momentum.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: September 24 – 28
| Monday, September 24 |
Data EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
| Tuesday, September 25 |
Data USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, September 26 |
Data USD – New Home Sales (Aug) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
|
| Thursday, September 27 |
Data USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Aug)
Events NZD – RBNZ Press Conference
|
|
Friday, September 28
|
Data CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep) EUR – German Unemployment Change (Sep) GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q2) GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jul)
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks GBP – MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
|
210918 Daily Analysis
21 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar falls amid trade war uncertainty.
The dollar fell by 0.05% to 93.42 at early Asian trading session against a basket of six major currencies while hitting a 3-month low since mid-June yesterday amid the increasing tension of trade war and the uncertainty of US President Donald Trump’s next move after the retaliation by China where tariff was imposed on $60 billion US goods. Trump made a threat in his Twitter on Monday where he will impose another round of tariff on $267 billion of China goods if China were to retaliate. The fall was briefly capped by the positive sentiment from yesterday releasement of economy data US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index but was followed by a negative sentiment from the Existing Home Sales economic data. In other news, the pound sterling rose sharply by 0.40% to 1.3270 after the Brexit news on yesterday where EU warned UK Prime Minister Theresa May to give up on the Ireland border issue to prevent a hard-Brexit. May replied the warning with a promised to ensure no Ireland border issue followed by a warning that a hard-Brexit may act as a negotiation tactics.
As for the commodities market, crude oil fell by 0.10% to $70.20 per barrel amid US President Donald Trump’s Twitter post where he demanded the OPEC to reduce the prices of crude oil. On the other hand, gold price increased by 0.14% to $1208.60 per troy ounce as dollar index continues to plunge amid trade war uncertainties.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 55.9 | 55.7 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | -0.1% | 0.6% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (Aug) | 0.2% | – | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 54.7 | 55.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3290. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest this pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3205.
Resistance level 1.3290, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3090
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1760. Recent price action and MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1800.
Resistance level: 1.1800, 1.1840
Support level: 1.1760, 1.1730
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 112.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 113.10.
Resistance level: 113.10, 113.65
Support level: 112.50, 112.20
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 70.45. Recent price movement and MACD which display bearish momentum and the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 69.50
Resistance level: 70.45, 71.25
Support level: 69.50, 68.55
GOLD
GOLD, H4: Gold price was recently traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1208.45. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1208.45.
Resistance level: 1208.45, 1212.70
Support level: 1203.30, 1196.00
200918 Daily Analysis
20 September 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar falls amid increasing tension in trade war.
The dollar fell by 0.05% to 94.00 at early Asian trading session against a basket of six major currencies while hitting a seven-week low yesterday amid the increasing tension of trade war where both the US and China had imposed tariffs on each other’s goods. US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on $200 billion goods from China this Monday followed by a threat to impose another round of tariff if China were to retaliate. The trade war continued as China also announced tariff on $60 billion goods from US as a sign of retaliation. Although the tariffs imposed was less than the expectations of investors, attention will be focused on Trump’s next move in the trade war as a sentiment for the dollar. In other news, the pound sterling fluctuated vigorously yesterday amid the releasement of UK’s CPI for the month of August as well as the comments from EU Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker where he stated that the EU and UK were still far away from a Brexit agreement followed by UK President Theresa May’s rejection for a second referendum. The positive sentiment from UK’s CPI led the pound to an increased before plunging down after the poor sentiment from Brexit news.
As for the commodities market, crude oil edged up by 0.29% to $71.20 per barrel amid the decreased in US crude oil inventories followed by signals where OPEC may not raise output in relation to reducing supplies from Iran. On the other hand, gold price increased by 0.14% to $1205.40 per troy ounce as dollar index continues to plunge.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
Todays’ Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.7% | -0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) | 11.9 | 17.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Aug) | 5.34M | 5.35M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3145. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3195.
Resistance level 1.3195, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1690. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1645.
Resistance level: 1.1690, 1.1730
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1615
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was recently traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 112.20. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.95.
Resistance level: 112.20, 112.60
Support level: 111.95, 111.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was recently traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 71.25. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 71.25
Resistance level: 71.25, 72.40
Support level: 70.45, 69.50
GOLD
GOLD, H4: Gold price was recently traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1203.30. Recent price action and MACD which display bullish bias suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1207.80.
Resistance level: 1207.80, 1212.70
Support level: 1203.00, 1196.00