230817 Daily Analysis
23 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Investors hop on the dollar-bull train.
Bears continued to steer the Euro on Wednesday following a softer-than-expected economic docket from the eurozone. Overnight, the single common currency sheds its prior gains after German Economic Sentiment published by ZEW plummet to 10.0 in August, missing consensus forecast for a drop to 15.0. The poorer performance reflects high degree of nervousness upon the future path of growth in Germany, albeit overall outlook for the country still remains at relatively stable high levels. Consequently, pair of EUR/USD sheds 0.09% and last quoted around $1.1751. On the other hand, the greenback added up 0.05% to 93.46 as investors shift their focus to speeches by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen due this Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, Draghi is expected to reveal little into the ECB’s policy stance to avert any risk of a surge in the euro following the central bank’s concern over the recent sharp rise of the single common currency. Likewise, Yellen’s remark will be highly scrutinized by investors for further prospect with regards to the timing of next interest rate hike.
As for commodities, crude oil price plunged 0.40% to $47.60 due to ongoing concerns of oversupply and rising output in Libya. Subsequently, gold price sheds 0.03% to $1,284.73 as greenback stages a rebound since yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 58.1 | 57.7 | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 53.3 | 53.3 | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Services PMI (Aug) | 54.7 | 54.9 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jul) | 610K | 612K | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -8.945M | -3.375M | – |
GBPUSD
GPBUSD, H4: GPBUSD extended its losses following recent breakthrough from the strong support level of 1.2850. Such price action suggests further downside bias for GBPUSD to extend downward momentum towards the next target at 1.2790.
Resistance level: 1.2850, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2790, 1.2720
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level. Recent retracement suggests short-term downside bias for EURUSD to extend its losses, towards the next target at the support level of 1.1720.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1890
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1660
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has extended its gains following recent rebound while closing above both MA lines. MACD histogram which illustrates positive divergence suggests USDJPY to advance further up, towards the next target at resistance level of 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.80
Support level: 109.50, 108.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD indicator which begins to illustrate increasing downward momentum suggests possibility to occur a breakout at this level and signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 47.95, 48.40
Support level: 47.40, 47.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Referring to the MACD histogram which illustrates negative divergence suggests gold price to extend its losses after successfully closing below the strong support level of 1282.00.
Resistance level: 1292.05, 1300.00
Support level: 1282.00, 1271.90
220817 Daily Analysis
22 August 2017 Daily Analysis
US dollar concedes to haunting ambivalence.
Greenback hovers between gains and losses on Tuesday while investors eye on renewed geopolitical tension in the Korean Peninsula following US-South Korea joint military exercise. The dollar index was last seen hovering near 92.95 against a basket of six major peers. Overnight, US dollar losses its ground against safe-haven currencies while US and South Korea began a computer-simulated military exercise, risking retaliation from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un who view such exercises as hostility. In addition, the greenback suffered from further pressure due to ongoing ambivalence that surrounds US President Donald Trump’s economic agenda and Federal Reserve’s ability to raise their interest rates for the third time this year. In the other region, pound sterling and euro pared some losses as greenback kickstart the week with subdued performance.
Otherwise, crude oil price inched up 0.36% to $47.70 per barrel, lifted by signs of a gradual crude supply tightening in the United States. On the other hand, gold price was held steady at $1,290.83 in a quiet Asian trading hours.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jul) | 6.28B | -0.20B | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) | 17.5 | 15.0 | – |
| 18:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug) | 10 | 9 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -9.200M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GPBUSD remains traded within a range following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 1.2905. A closure below the 20-MA line (red) would suggest further downside bias for GBPUSD to advance towards the support level of 1.2875.
Resistance level: 1.2905, 1.2940
Support level: 1.2875, 1.2845, 1.2810
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. MACD histogram which illustrates positive divergence signal suggest EURUSD to advance further up and retest at the target of 1.1840.
Resistance level: 1.1840, 1.1890
Support level: 1.1780, 1.1720
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent rebound form the strong support level of 108.90. Such price action suggests short-term upside bias for USDJPY to extend its gains towards the target of resistance level at 109.50.
Resistance level: 109.50, 110.10, 110.80
Support level: 108.90, 108.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remained traded within a narrowing triangle while recently closed below the support level of 48.50. The 20-MA line (red) which begins to head downwards suggests crude oil price to advance towards the bottom level of the triangle, near the support level of 47.00.
Resistance level: 48.50, 50.00
Support level: 47.00, 45.50
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 1292.05. A closure below the 20-MA line (red) would suggest gold price to extend further down, towards the target of support level at 1282.00.
Resistance level: 1292.05, 1300.00
Support level: 1282.00, 1271.90
210817 Weekly Analysis
21 August 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 21 – 25
Market Review (Forex): August 14 – 18
U.S. Dollar
Greenback slipped against a basket of other major peers on Friday as US political uncertainty and growing doubts over the prospect for another rate hike continue to chips away investors’ confidence. The dollar index shed 0.3% during late Friday trading while last quoted at 93.36. For the week, the index has managed to record a gain of 0.43%.
Political uncertainty in the US remained as the main focus on Friday after US President Donald Trump told aides that he has decided to remove Steve Bannon from his post as chief White House Advisor. The latest twist in the Washington political saga has catalyzed growing concern over Trump’s ability to push through his pro-growth agenda such as fiscal spending and tax reforms.
Otherwise, losses in greenback were capped after preliminary reading of consumer sentiment for the month of August exceed economist expectation which adds to a backdrop of recent upbeat economic docket. A survey conducted by The University of Michigan found that consumer sentiment rose to 97.6 in August, beating consensus forecast of 94.00.
US Consumer Sentiment
—– Forecast
US consumer sentiment rose to 97.6 in August, topping economist forecast of only 94.00.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY was down 0.36% to 109.18 during late Friday trading.
EUR/USD
Euro pushes higher against the dollar, appreciating more than 0.32% while closing at $1.1760.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling ticked up 0.08% while closing the week at $1.2878 against the US dollar.
Market Review (Commodities): August 14 – 18
GOLD
Gold prices retreats on Friday following prior surge to its highest level in nine months with the backdrop of US political uncertainty and terrorist attack in Spain. Its prices depreciate by 0.16% to $1,290.27 after peaking at a high of $1,306.90 earlier.
The demand for the precious metal subsides following reports of senior White House advisor Steve Bannon is dismissed of his post which is deemed as positive by investors for Trump’s administration agenda. However, its losses remained limited as greenback suffered from selling pressure due to greater uncertainty over Trump’s economic agenda and the timing of next interest rate hike.
Crude Oil
Oil prices was settled higher on Friday, skyrocketing more than 3% following reports of a unit shutdown in one of the largest oil refineries in the US and a fall in the number of active domestic oil drilling rigs. Its prices surged $1.42 or 3% and ended the week at $48.51 per barrel.
Traders pour into crude contracts after reports surfaced that a unit at Exxon Mobil’s Baytown, Texas refinery were shut down. The 584,000 barrels-a-day plant is the second largest oil refinery in the US. Likewise, US oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active oil drilling rigs fell by 5 while bringing the total count down to 763.
Despite Friday’s surge, its prices still ended the week with a loss of 31 cents or 0.6% due to ongoing concerns over rising oil outputs and OPEC’s ability to reduce global oversupply inventories. Previously, OPEC and 10 non-member producers has agreed to reduce daily production by 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018 in hopes to reduce a global supply glut and rebalance the market. However, rising output from United States, Nigeria and Libya has offset such effort while raising doubts over OPEC’s ability to maintain such measures.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active drilling rigs in the United States was down by 5 and the total count is currently at 763.
Weekly Outlook: August 21 – 25
For the week ahead, investors will be focusing on speeches by central bankers at the Federal Reserve’s annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Likewise, they will also keep an eye on US economic docket which includes housing and durable goods data to gauge its impact on Fed’s policy while euro zone is bound to release their latest data on private sector activity.
Otherwise, oil traders will be looking forward for fresh weekly information on US stockpiles to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. In addition, remarks given by global oil producers will also be focused for evidence of their compliance towards the agreement to reduce their daily output.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 21 – 25
| Monday, August 21 |
Data CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, August 22 |
Data GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jul) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, August 23 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock EUR – German Manufacturing PMI USD – Manufacturing PMI (Aug) USD – Services PMI (Aug) USD – New Home Sales (Jul) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
|
| Thursday, August 24 |
Data GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Existing Home Sales (Jul)
Events USD – Jackson Hole Symposium
|
|
Friday, August 25
|
Data EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – Jackson Hole Symposium USD – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
Technical weekly outlook: August 21 – 25
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: The dollar index remained traded within a downward channel recently retraced from the upper level of the channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate a retracement signal suggests the dollar index advance further down after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.95
Support level: 93.00, 92.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD has recently broke out from the bottom level of upward wedge, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downward suggests GBPUSD to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 1.2860.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2715
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 109.40. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggests ongoing downside bias for USDJPY towards the target of support level at 108.80.
Resistance level: 109.40, 110.10
Support level: 108.80, 108.10
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 1.1700. Such price movement suggests further upside bias for EURUSD to advance further upwards after successfully closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.2000
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1550
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 1281.10. Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests gold price to move further up, towards the strong resistance level of 1295.00.
Resistance level: 1295.00, 1307.00
Support level: 1281.10, 1270.35
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently retraced from the 20-MA line (red). Such price movement suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term, towards the first target at 48.50. Otherwise, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 50.00, 51.50
Support level: 48.50, 47.00
180817 Daily Analysis
18 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Fed recites cautiousness, greenback remains intimidated.
Greenback firms during early Asian trading hours on Friday, in midst of a light regional data ahead. The dollar index rose 0.08% and last seen around 93.56. Overnight, US dollar received ascends further following a pair of optimistic economic data which signals the economy to be on track for a solid third quarter growth. However, upside bias for the greenback remained limited due to dovish sentiment given by two voting Fed officials. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan postulate that current prices are required to hit a 2% target in the midterm in order to support for another interest rate hike. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that he sees no urgency to raise interest rates anytime soon. In the other region, euro stabilizes at around $1.1725 after the minutes from European Central Bank’s latest meeting quoted concerns over the strength of the single currency. In addition, policymakers also highlighted recent recovery in economy should not be taken for granted as it is still relying on a high degree of monetary policy support.
In the commodities front, crude oil price fell 0.08% to $47.05 as oversupply glut continues to linger with the backdrop of rising daily production from US. Evidently, gold price appreciates by 0.14% to $1,288.24 following dovish stance portrayed by Fed officials.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:15 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | 93.4 | 94.0 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 768 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.2900. However, recent formation of inverted hammer candlestick suggests short-term upside bias for GBPUSD towards the target of 1.2900.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2950
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2790
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). A successful closure below the strong support level of 1.1720 would suggest further downside bias towards the next target at 1.1650.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY extended its losses following prior downward expansion of both moving average line after the formation of death cross. Such signal from both MA lines suggests further downside bias for USDJPY to advance towards the next target at 109.20.
Resistance level: 109.55, 109.80
Support level: 109.20, 108.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 46.45. Such price action suggests its price to extend higher in the short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction is biased towards downside.
Resistance level: 47.30, 47.90
Support level: 46.45, 46.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1282.00. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate positive divergence suggests its prices to advance further up and retest at 1292.05.
Resistance level: 1292.05, 1300.00
Support level: 1282.00, 1271.90
170817 Daily Analysis
17 August 2016 Daily Analysis
Divided Fed leaves next rate hike in limbo.
Market bears took the course of greenback on Thursday following the release of Fed minutes which exhibit debates over the timing of next interest rate hike this year. The dollar index sheds 0.05% while last quoted at 93.36. The minutes released were from FOMC’s July meeting after policymakers voted to hold their benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 1% – 1.25%. Fissures were unfolded from the minutes whereby some participants expressed their concern over the recent decline in inflationary pressure while another highlighted the risk in delaying the process of tightening their policies. Recent sluggishness in inflation rate has spurred market concern over Fed’s ability to follow through their plan to hike interest rates gradually even though the economy is growing moderately while unemployment rate fell to 16-years low of 4.3% in July. Conversely, traders in the Fed Funds Futures priced in at least 50% chance for a rate hike in December, up from previous reading of only 37%.
In the commodities section, crude oil price rose 0.21% to $46.88 following a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories. However, current gains remained capped as a separate report highlighted an increase in US crude production which attains 9.502 million barrels a day, its highest since July 2015. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.64% to $1,285.08 following a weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
01:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
01:45 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Employment Change (Jull) | 14.0K | 20.0K | 27.9K |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 1.3% | 1.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 244K | 240K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) | 19.5 | 18.5 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from currently testing at the resistance level of 1.2900. A successful closure above this level would suggest further upside bias for GBPUSD to extend its gains towards the subsequent target at 1.2950.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2950
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2790
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the top level. A breakout from the top level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards towards subsequent target at 1.1840.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY pared its prior gains following a retrace from the strong resistance level of 110.90. MACD histogram which begins to form negative divergence signal suggest USDJPY to extend its losses towards the support level of 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.90
Support level: 109.40, 108.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following a rebound near the support level of 46.65. Such price movement while coupled with diminishing downward momentum in MACD histogram suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction skew towards downside bias.
Resistance level: 47.10, 47.50
Support level: 46.65, 46.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following a successful rebound from the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 1271.90. Recent closure above the 20-MA line (red) suggests further upside bias towards the previous high at 1292.05.
Resistance level: 1292.05, 1300.00
Support level: 1282.00, 1271.90
160817 Daily Analysis
16 August 2016 Daily Analysis
Hawks and doves espy, FOMC minutes in sight.
Greenback eases slightly during Asian trading hours on Wednesday while investors ponder the release of FOMC meeting minutes for further indication on rate hike timing. Overnight, US dollar was offered higher against other major peers, buoyed by exceedingly optimistic retail sales data which signals for a rebound in consumer spending while lifting expectation for a solid economic growth in the second half of the year. US Commerce Department reported that the retail sales for July rose 0.6%, its largest gain in seven months while topping out economists’ forecast of only 0.4%. In the other region, pound sterling relinquished near five-weeks low of $1.2866 as soft inflation reading eases market expectation for a rate hike anytime soon. According to the Office of National Statistics, consumer prices rose 2.6% for the month of July, a tick below forecast for 2.7% as falling fuel price were offset by higher prices clothes, utilities and food.
Otherwise, crude oil price pared initial losses by 0.32% to $47.70 after American Petroleum Institute showed a major draw in crude stocks albeit slight build in gasoline. On the other hand, gold price extended losses by 0.12% to $1,272.14 as North Korea delayed a decision to fire missiles towards US territory of Guam.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Date
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) | 1.8% | 1.8% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jul) | 5.9K | 3.7K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jul) | 1.275M | 1.250M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (Jul) | 1.215M | 1.220M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -6.451M | -3.058M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD pared some losses following a rebound from the support level of 1.2850. Such price movement suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still maintained as downside bias.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2950
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2790
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle following prior rebound from the strong support level at 1.1720. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrates a rebound signal from oversold region suggests EURUSD to be traded higher in short-term, towards the target of 1.1780.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has extended its gains following prior closure above both moving average line. MACD histogram which illustrate positive divergence suggests USDJPY to advance further up towards the resistance level of 110.90.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.60
Support level: 110.10, 109.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the psychological level of 47.00. Recent price action suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term, towards the target of resistance level at 48.00.
Resistance level: 48.00, 48.55
Support level: 47.45, 47.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was held steady following prior rebound from the support level of 1271.90. Such price action suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as retracement. Otherwise, a closure below the level of 1271.90 would suggest an extension to its downside bias.
Resistance level: 1282.00, 1292.05
Support level: 1271.90, 1265.50
150817 Daily Analysis
15 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Financial market gasp for air as North Korea backtracks.
Safe haven Japanese yen sheds its gains further on Tuesday, pulling away from prior four-months high against the greenback as tension between United States and North Korea eases. Pair of USD/JPY rebounds by 0.47% to 110.18. According to Wall Street Journal, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided not to launch missile attack on Guam and warned that he may change his mind if United States “persist their extremely dangerous and reckless actions”. In the other region, the dollar index appreciates by 0.10% to 93.31 against a basket of six major peers. Overnight, greenback remained broadly higher in a subdued Monday trade as market participants continues to digest Friday’s sluggish inflation data which may hinder the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year. In addition, greenback remained well supported after Reuters reported that President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order on infrastructure projects which has raised investor’s risk-taking in the market.
As for commodities, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.15% to $47.66 following prior slump due to lower crude oil demand from China. Otherwise, gold price depreciates further by $8.96 or 0.70% due to diminishing geopolitical risk in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day EUR Italy – Assumption Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.6% | 0.7% | – |
| 15:15 | CHF – PPI (MoM) (Jul) | -0.1% | 0.0% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 2.6% | 2.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | -0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | -0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) | 9.80 | 10.00 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -7.839M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remained traded within a tight range while currently testing at the bottom level near 1.2950. Both MA lines which begins to expand downward suggests possibility for a breakout at the bottom level to occur and signal a change in trend direction to extend its losses thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2950, 1.2900
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level. MACD indicator which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests EURUSD to advance further down, towards the bottom level of the triangle in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY retraces sharply following previous rebound from the support level of 108.70. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate positive divergence, a successful breakthrough from the downward trendline would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.90
Support level: 109.40, 108.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price pared some losses following a rebound from the support level of 47.40. Such price movement suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Likewise, long-term trend direction still suggests downward bias as both MA lines continues to expand downwards.
Resistance level: 48.00, 48.55
Support level: 47.40, 46.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its losses following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1292.05. MACD histogram continues to illustrate negative divergence signal suggests gold price to continue its downward momentum after closing below the support level of 1272.05.
Resistance level: 1282.00, 1292.05
Support level: 1272.05, 1259.65
140817 Weekly Analysis
14 August 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 14 – 18
Market Review (Forex): August 7 – 11
U.S. Dollar
Greenback slipped against other major peers on Friday following a weaker-than-expected US inflation data that has dial down market’s expectations for a third interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. The dollar index sheds 0.33% to 92.99 as of late Friday while recording weekly loss of 0.49%.
According to the Labor Department, US consumer prices edged up 0.1% in July, below economist forecast of 0.2%. Consumer prices were up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis from 1.6% in June. The softer inflationary pressure may force the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance before raising their interest rates by year end. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, futures traders are pricing in at 35% chance for a rate hike in December.
US Inflation Rate (MoM)
—– Forecast
US inflation rate for July came in at 0.1%, underscored expected reading of 0.2%.
US Inflation Rate
—– Forecast
As for year-over-year comparison, US inflation was a tad higher with 1.7% for the month of July as compared to previous with only 1.6%.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY ended flat at 109.19, not far from 16-weeks low following heightened tension between the US and North Korea.
EUR/USD
Euro rose 0.42% to $1.1821 against the greenback after Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the currency to reach 1.25 threshold by early next year.
GBP/USD
Great British Pound appreciates by 0.24% to $1.3008 during late Friday trading.
Market Review (Commodities): August 7 – 11
GOLD
Gold price peaks at two-months high on Friday following a weaker-than-expected US inflation report while coupled with rising tensions between United States and North Korea. Price of the yellow metal settled up 0.38% while ended the week at $1,295.00, its highest close since June 6th.
Investors flock to safe-haven assets such as Yen, Swiss Franc and gold earlier this week after Pyongyang stated that they will develop a plan by mid-August to launch an intermediate-range missile towards US territory in Guam. In retaliation, US President Donald Trump warned North Korea that any threat towards the United States would be met with “fire and fury”. Meanwhile, the demand for precious metal was further supported following Friday’s depreciation on the greenback.
Crude Oil
Oil prices inches further up on Friday albeit recording a weekly loss due to lingering concerns over a global supply glut. Apart from that, investors are also closely monitoring the developments between the US and North Korea which may hinder investor’s appeal for risky assets over higher perceived risk in the financial market. Crude oil price ended the week with 23 cents or 0.5% lower at $48.82, not far from two-and-a-half weeks’ low of $47.98.
According to a report released by the International Energy Agency, OPEC compliance with the daily output cut deal has fallen to 75% last month, its lowest since the deal was initiated in January. The bearish compliance report came a day after OPEC released its monthly report, showing a rise in production from the cartel during the month of July with gains lead by both Libya and Nigeria whom are exempted from the deal.
Otherwise, US oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported on Friday that weekly count of oil rigs was up by 3 and the total count ticked up to 768 last week. A rebound in oil drilling activity in the US added further pressure over the oil price amid rising output from the United States.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active drilling rigs in the United States was up by 3 and the total count is currently at 768.
Weekly Outlook: August 14 – 18
For the week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for further hints regarding the next interest rate hike. Sidelined are a report on US retail sales which could gauge consumer spending level as inflationary pressure remained subdued. Elsewhere, UK data on inflation and employment will be in focus as well amid ongoing concerns over the possible economic fallout due to Brexit.
In the oil market, investors will be eyeing fresh information on US crude stockpiles on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Likewise, traders will also pay close attention to comments from global oil producers over their compliance towards the oil cut deal.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 14 – 18
| Monday, August 14 |
Data NZD – Core Retail Sales (QoQ) NZD – Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q2) JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) CNY – Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul) CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, August 15 |
Data EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) CHF – PPI (MoM) (Jul) GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jul) USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)
Events AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes
|
| Wednesday, August 16 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jul) EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Building Permits (Jul) USD – Housing Starts (Jul) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes
|
| Thursday, August 17 |
Data AUD – Employment Change (Jul) GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
Events EUR – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
|
|
Friday, August 18
|
Data CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: August 14 – 18
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index extended its back leg following prior retracement from the 20-MA (red). Recent closure below the threshold of 93.00 suggests the dollar index to advance further down, towards the target of support level 92.00.
Resistance level: 93.00, 94.00, 94.95
Support level: 92.00, 91.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD continues to be traded within a rising wedge while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.2970. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrates rebound signal from the oversold region suggests further upward bias for GBPUSD, towards the target of resistance level at 1.3100.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3230
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2860
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 108.80. Such price movement suggests short-term upward bias for USDJPY and its first target is at 109.40. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to extend its downward momentum as both MA line continues to expand downwards.
Resistance level: 109.40, 110.10
Support level: 108.80, 108.10
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD pared its prior losses following a rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Both lines which continues to expand upwards suggest EURUSD to advance further up and retest at the strong resistance level of 1.1880.
Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.2000
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1550
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price halts its ascend following prior retracement before the resistance level of 1295.00. The price movement suggests gold price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction towards the direction of support level at 1281.10. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still remains as upside bias while both MA lines continues to expand further up.
Resistance level: 1295.00, 1307.00
Support level: 1281.10, 1270.35
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 50.00. MACD histogram which begins to illustrate negative divergence signal suggests crude oil price to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 48.50.
Resistance level: 50.00, 51.50
Support level: 48.50, 47.00
110817 Daily Analysis
11 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Overnight’s PPI bruises, next CPI in focus.
US dollar dipped against other major peers on Friday as the tension between Pyongyang and Washington continues to escalate while coupled with soft inflation and jobs data. The dollar index ticked down 0.04% to 93.22 as of writing. According to the Labor Department, producer price index fell by 0.1% in July, notching its first decline since last August while spurring higher pessimism among market participants. In addition, initial claims for state unemployment benefits was increased by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 244,000. Economist forecasted to remain unchanged at 240,000. The weaker-than-expected economic docket came prior to a speech given by New York Fed President William Dudley whom suggested that the central bank is still on track for another rate hike this year. Also weighing on the greenback was continued escalation of geopolitical uncertainty after North Korea threatened to launch missile attack at Guam. Against other major peers, pair of USD/JPY was down 0.11% to 109.07 while EUR/USD remains unchanged at $1.1772.
Otherwise, crude oil price depreciates by 0.14% to $48.52 as global supply glut continues to haunt the market despite a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.26% to $1,287.03 following higher tension in the Korean peninsula.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Japan – Mountain Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
21:40 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
23:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 765 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggest ongoing downside bias towards the next target support level of 1.2945.
Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2945, 1.2905
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1780. A successful closure below the 20-MA line (red) would suggest EURUSD to extend its losses towards the next target at 1.1720.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650, 1.1575
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior closure below the strong support level at 109.40. MACD histogram which illustrates ongoing negative divergence suggests USDJPY to advance further down towards the support level of 108.80.
Resistance level: 109.40, 110.10
Support level: 108.80, 108.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement while concurrently closing below both MA lines. MACD histogram which illustrates negative divergence suggests crude oil price to move further down after breaking the support level of 48.30.
Resistance level: 48.80, 49.65
Support level: 48.30, 47.85
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended gains following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. MACD histogram which illustrates positive divergence signal suggests gold price to extend its upward momentum and retest near the strong resistance level of 1295.00.
Resistance level: 1295.00, 1307.50
Support level: 1281.10, 1270.35
100817 Daily Analysis
10 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Soured kiwi as doves visit RBNZ.
Kiwi hunched lower during Asian trading hours on Thursday amid seemingly dovish sentiment portrayed by the central bank on future policy outlook. Pair of NZD/USD sheds 0.24% while hovering near $0.7348. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its interest rate unchanged at 1.75% while commenting that the current neutral stance on monetary policy may persist while inflation projection well anchored at around 2%. Governor Graeme Wheeler stated that there are numerous uncertainty in the market and the policy may need to accommodate current conditions. In the other region, greenback was held unchanged at 93.40 while investors await major economic docket for further prospects. Both producer and consumer price index is expected to provide further market direction as previous softer-than-expected inflationary pressure has been the main concern for the Federal Reserve.
Otherwise, crude oil price extended gains by 0.12% to $49.62 after investors cheered industry data which shows a sharp drop in US crude supplies. According to Energy Information Administration, crude stockpiles fell by 6.5 million barrels last week, confounding forecast for a draw of only 2.7 million barrels. Likewise, gold price stacked up 0.22% to $1,275.86 as North Korean tension continues to stoke higher risk in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
Time Market Event
05:00 NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
05:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
05:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
09:10 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
22:00 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) | -0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 240K | 240K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | 0.7% | 0.4% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2980. However, as both MA lines continue to expand downwards after the formation of death cross, GBPUSD is expected to extend its losses and retest at the support level of 1.2980.
Resistance level: 1.3030, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2980, 1.2905
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace near the 20-MA line (red). Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggests further downside bias for EURUSD to advance further down and retest near the strong support level of 1.1720.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650
NZDUSD
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded in a downtrend following previous formation of death cross by both moving average line. Recent breakout from the support level of 0.7330 suggest further downside bias towards the target of support level at 0.7300.
Resistance level: 0.7330, 0.7375
Support level: 0.7300, 0.7275
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY threaded water near the support level of 110.00 following prior rebound from the lower levels. As both moving average line continues to expand downwards, in tandem with the current downtrend suggests USDJPY to extend its losses after closing below the level of 110.00.
Resistance level: 110.35, 111.00
Support level: 109.90, 109.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remained traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retracement signal from overbought level suggests short-term downside bias to advance lower towards the target of 49.40.
Resistance level: 49.60, 49.80
Support level: 49.40, 49.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended gains following prior closure above the strong resistance level at 1270.00. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum after closing above the resistance level of 1276.40.
Resistance level: 1276.40, 1286.00
Support level: 1270.00, 1261.10
090817 Daily Analysis
9 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback grasp its gains as North Korea prepare to strike.
Japanese yen appreciates further on Wednesday as tension on the Korean Peninsula escalates following prior enactment of new sanctions. North Korea stated that they are considering plans to launch a missile strike on the US Pacific territory of Guam and could be put into practice at any time under the command of their leader Kim Jong Un. Heightened risk in the market spur risk aversion among investors and boosting the demand of safe haven assets such as yen and gold. On the other hand, greenback held gains at 93.48 against six major peers following refreshed optimism catalyzed by US job openings data. According to the Labor Department, US job openings increased by 461,000 in June, adding up to a seasonally adjusted total of 6.2 million, its highest since December 2000. The bullish report reinforced last Friday’s NFP report which suggests stronger economic performance while increasing market’s prospect for another rate hike by year end.
In the commodities, crude oil price plunged 0.51% to $48.92 as the market shrugged off a bigger-than-expected draw in US inventories following doubts over OPEC’s ability to carry through their production cut agreement. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.82% to $1,266.68 as geopolitical tension between US and North Korea continues to intensify.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (MoM) (Jul) | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Jul) | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 20:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Jul) | 212.7K | 205.0K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.0% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) | 2.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Jun) | 8.9% | -2.0% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.527M | -2.720M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses following prior closure below the 50.0 Fibonacci level of 1.3030. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggests GBPUSD to advance further down after closing below the support level of 1.2980.
Resistance level: 1.3030, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2980, 1.2905
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD histogram which illustrates negative divergence suggests EURUSD to extend its losses after breaking the strong support level of 1.1720.
Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1720, 1.1650
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 110.85. Recent closure below the support level of 110.10 suggest further downside bias to extend its losses towards the next target at 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.85
Support level: 109.40, 108.80
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level near 49.55. Recent closure below both MA line suggest further downside bias to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 48.80.
Resistance level: 49.55, 50.40
Support level: 48.80, 47.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the top level. A successful breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to extend its upside thereafter. Otherwise, a retracement would suggest short-term downside bias and to be remained traded within the downward channel.
Resistance level: 1265.50, 1273.95
Support level: 1257.60, 1247.50
080817 Daily Analysis
8 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar flats, inflation next.
Greenback took a step back against other major peers on Tuesday while investor digests remarks from Fed officials from overnight. While both Feds displayed some concern with regards to the growth and inflation, Kashkari tone were rather optimistic as he reiterated that the economy is well-performed. His remarks came over the backdrop whereby a series of economic data suggests possible slowdown in the economy prior to the release of July’s US jobs report. Further weighing on the currency was renewed geopolitical concerns after fresh sanctions were levied on North Korea for its nuclear and missiles pursues. For the week ahead, inflation data from the US is expected to spur the market with producer price index and consumer price index bound to be released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Consequently, the dollar index eased 0.05% to 93.19. Against other major peers, GBP/USD tacked at $1.3037 while EUR/USD was up 0.07% to $1.1803.
As for commodities, crude oil price dipped 0.24% to $49.27 following renewed oversupply concerns after a report showed that US production rose to a two-years high while Libyan oil output rebounds sharply. On the other hand, gold price was flat at $1,258.46 while being balanced by strong NFP report and heightened geopolitical risks.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Jul) | 9 | – | 12 |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Jul) | 42.77B | 46.08B | – |
| 20:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Jul) | 212.7K | 205.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jun) | 5.666M | 5.775M | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.779M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD pared its losses following prior rebound below the support level of 1.3030. Such price action suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests further downside bias due to recent formation of death cross by both MA line.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3030, 1.2980
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.1775. A closure above the 20-MA line (red) would suggest EURUSD to extend its upward momentum and retest near the resistance level of 1.1840.
Resistance level: 1.1840, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1775, 1.1720
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a range following prior retracement from the 60-MA line (green). The price action suggests short-term downside bias for USDJPY to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 110.35.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.65
Support level: 110.35, 109.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending triangle while recently retraced from the resistance level of 49.40. A closure below the support level of 49.15 would suggest an extension of downside bias towards the next target at 48.85 thereafter.
Resistance level: 49.40, 49.65
Support level: 49.15, 48.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price pared its earlier losses following a rebound near the 23.6 Fibonacci level of 1257.60. Such price action suggests gold price to be traded higher at short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, it is suggested to long-term downside bias due to recent formation of death cross by both MA lines.
Resistance level: 1265.50, 1273.95
Support level: 1257.60, 1247.50
070817 Weekly Analysis
7 August 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 7 – 11
Market Review (Forex): July 31 – August 4
U.S. Dollar
Greenback rallied against a basket of major peers on Friday following exceed expectation performance of US jobs report. The labor department reported that the economy generated 209,000 jobs during July, beating economist expectation for a gain of 183,000. Similarly, unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% while average hourly earnings gained within forecast of 0.3%. When compared with year-over-year, wages have increased by 2.5%, matching June’s increase.
The uptick in wage growth indicates sustainability in inflationary pressure which would enable the US Federal Reserve to hike its interest rate gradually. Additionally, the dollar received further bullish support following director of White House National Economic Council, Gary Cohn whom revived hopes for a tax reform. Overall, the dollar index was up 0.72% to 93.37 during late Friday trading. For the week, it has gained around 0.33% while notching its first weekly appreciation in four weeks.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
—– Forecast
US economy added 209,000 jobs last month, indicating further tightening in labor market.
US Unemployment Rate
—– Forecast
Unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.3% in July.
US Average Hourly Earnings
—– Forecast
Average hourly earnings came in within expectation with 0.3%.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY rebounds by 0.6% to 110.69, not far from daily high of 111.04.
EUR/USD
Euro sheds 0.83% to $1.1770 against the greenback, off from prior two-and-a-half-year high.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling slides down by 0.73% to $1.3042 during late Friday trading.
Market Review (Commodities): July 31 – August 4
GOLD
Gold price fell on Friday following the release of solid US employment report for the month of July which has revived overall expectation for another interest rate hike within this year. Price of the yellow metal settled down to $1,258.28 while ended the week with a loss of 0.80%. Higher expectation for an interest rate hike in the future tend to weigh on gold price as it is denominated in dollar and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing cost arises.
Crude Oil
Oil prices extended its advance on Friday following further signs of a possible slowdown in US shale production. Its prices appreciate by 55 cents or 1.1% to $49.58, few ticks away from $50 threshold. According to US oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of active drilling rigs fell by one to 765 last week, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth. Despite optimism from US data, its prices has recorded a loss around 13 cents or 0.30% for the week due to rising exports from OPEC members which has achieved its yearly high.
Since the start of the year, OPEC and some non-OPEC members has agreed to reduce 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. However, such plans has done little impact in global crude inventory levels due to rising supply from non-participating producers such as Libya and Nigeria while coupled with a rebound in US shale output.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active drilling rigs was down by 1 to a total of 765.
Weekly Outlook: August 7 – 11
For the week ahead, investors will be looking forward to Friday’s US inflation figures to monitor the economy is strong enough for the Fed to continue their gradual tightening of monetary policy. Likewise, appearance by a number of Fed speakers will also be in the limelight.
Meanwhile, oil traders will be focusing on monthly reports delivered by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels. Likewise, some members and non-members of OPEC will be meeting on Monday and Tuesday to discuss compliances upon the agreed production cut plans that may shed further light on the future of crude oil market.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 7 – 11
| Monday, August 7 |
Data NZD – Inflation Expectations (QoQ) CHF – CPI (MoM) (Jul) GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
|
| Tuesday, August 8 |
Data AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Jul) CNY –Trade Balance (USD) (Jul) CAD – Housing Starts (Jul) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jul)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, August 9 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock CNY – CPI (MoM) (Jul) CNY – PPI (MoM) (Jul) USD – Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, August 10 |
Data NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – PPI (MoM) (Jul) CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
Events NZD – RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement NZD – RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks CrudeOIL – OPEC Monthly Report USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
|
|
Friday, August 11
|
Data EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jul) USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events CrudeOIL – IEA Monthly Report
|
Technical weekly outlook: August 7 – 11
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index halts its decline following prior closure above the 93.00 threshold. Both Stochastic Oscillator and MACD histogram which illustrates an upward signal suggests the dollar index to extend further upwards after closing above the resistance level of 94.00.
Resistance level: 94.00, 94.95
Support level: 93.00, 92.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level of rising wedge. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggests further downside bias to extend its losses towards the support level of 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3230
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2860
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remains under pressure following prior formation of death cross by both MA lines. A retracement from the strong resistance level of 110.85 would suggests USDJPY to extend its losses towards the next target at 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.85, 111.85, 114.30
Support level: 110.10, 109.40
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD halts its ascend following prior retracement from the recent high of 1.1880. However, as both moving average line continues to expand upwards, EURUSD is expected to advance further up and retest at the resistance level of 1.1880.
Resistance level: 1.1880, 1.2000
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1550
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price were traded within a descending triangle following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which begins to form a negative divergence suggests gold price to extend its downward momentum after a successful closure below the 20-MA line (red). Next target of support level is at 1247.00.
Resistance level: 1259.00, 1270.35
Support level: 1247.00, 1235.00, 1217.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price were traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 48.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests crude oil price to experience brief retracement period in the short-term before extending its uptrend in the long-term.
Resistance level: 50.00, 51.50
Support level: 48.50, 47.00
040817 Daily Analysis
4 August 2017 Daily Analysis
Bears cheer on US-Russia, NFP eyed but could it sustain?
Great British Pound gains some ground on Friday after Bank of England (BoE) pronounced to leave their benchmark rate unchanged while assigning a rather dovish stance on their economic projection. Pair of GBP/USD was held flat at $1.3137 during Asian trading hours. Member of the bank voted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% with 6 versus 2, citing possible signs of economic slowdown. Referring to the MPC meeting minutes, they postulate that GDP growth has been performing sluggishly while business survey expectation was weakened and remained possible for further softening in the future. On the other hand, the dollar index was down 0.12% to 92.58 following heightened political pressure as US special counsel impaneled a grand jury to investigate Russian’s interference in 2016 election. The latest development in Trump-Russia saga will likely catalyze further uncertainty in Washington after The Senate rejected an amendment to replace Obamacare.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.06% to $49.06 while investors look forward to latest oil rig reading from US Baker Hughes. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.09% to $1,268.94 following heightened uncertainty in US politics.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (Jun) | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | 222K | 183K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 4.4% | 4.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jul) | 45.3K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jul) | 61.6 | 59.2 | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 766 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior plunge while closing below the 20-MA line (red). MACD histogram which illustrates negative divergence suggests an extension of losses towards the next target at 1.3090.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3040
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended gains following prior closure above the resistance level of 1.1850. Both MA lines which continues to expand upwards suggests EURUSD to continue its upward momentum after closing above the psychological level of 1.1900.
Resistance level: 1.1900, 1.1960
Support level: 1.1850, 1.1775
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 109.85. MACD histogram begins to form a positive divergence signal suggests USDJPY to extend its upward momentum towards the first target at 110.25.
Resistance level: 110.25, 110.55
Support level: 110.05, 109.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at the key 23.6 Fibonacci level of 48.80. A breakthrough from this level would suggest an extension of retracement towards the next target at 47.85.
Resistance level: 49.65, 50.40
Support level: 48.80, 47.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near recent high of 1273.95 which signals a strong bearish momentum ahead. MACD continues to illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests gold price to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 1265.50.
Resistance level: 1273.93, 1281.00
Support level: 1265.50, 1257.60
030817 Daily Analysis
3 August 2017 Daily Analysis
ADP disappoints, NFP akin?
Greenback rebounds from 14-months low on Thursday after private sector jobs report fumbled from economist’s expectations which has pulled down market’s sentiment towards the economic giant. According to ADP and Moody’s Analytics, US economy has generated only 178,000 jobs in the private sector for the month of July, a short of expected gain with 185,000. The sluggish performance in private hiring signals a possible slowdown in the US labor market which may hinder US Federal Reserve from pursuing its gradual approach to tighten their monetary policy. Likewise, the dollar index was up 0.14% to 92.81 against six major peers. In the other region, pound sterling was held steady at $1.3217 against the greenback as market participants awaits Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and its accompanying which may offer further insights regarding their stance towards its future policy direction.
In the commodities section, crude oil price slumped 0.34% to $49.92 as EIA reported a less-than-expected draw in crude inventories which has reduce some optimism in the market sentiment. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.75% to $1,262.20 as the greenback stages its rebound from 14-months low.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Trade Balance (Jun) | 2.471B | 1.800B | 0.856B |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Jul) | 53.4 | 53.6 | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 244K | 242K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) | -0.8% | 2.9% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 57.4 | 57.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing near the bottom level. A successful rebound from this level would suggest GPBUSD to remain traded within the upward channel while next target will be at 1.3240.
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3170
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD pared its earlier gains following a retrace from the resistance level of 1.1900. MACD which illustrates diminished upward momentum suggests EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests an uptrend.
Resistance level: 1.1850, 1.1900
Support level: 1.1775, 1.1700
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trend line. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggests further downside bias to advance towards the target of support level at 110.45.
Resistance level: 110.80, 111.05
Support level: 110.45, 110.20
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price halts its recovery while threading lower following a retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Such price movement suggests further bearish bias on its price to advance towards the support level at 49.25.
Resistance level: 49.85, 50.40
Support level: 49.25, 48.45
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price has extended its losses following prior closure below the support level of 1265.50. MACD histogram which illustrates negative divergence suggests gold price to advance further down, towards the strong support level at 1257.60.
Resistance level: 1265.50, 1273.95
Support level: 1257.60, 1247.45