Daily Analysis

24 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar gains as trade hopes swept along with debt ceiling deal.

Dollar index extended its gains against its basket of six major currency pairs amid renewed trade hopes. According to reports, U.S have made it official that U.S trade representative Robert Lighthizer will travel to China for another round of talks in hopes to achieve a trade deal. The news have since boosted the demand for the greenback. At the same time, dollar was also cheered on U.S President Donald Trump and Congress struck a deal on raising debt ceiling which have eased market fears of government defaulting, providing further boost for the dollar. On the other hand, pound sterling suffered losses after a slight bounce since leading candidate Boris Johnson was elected as Prime Minister and also the leader of the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson who was known for his hardline stance on Brexit, vowed to bring UK out of the EU by the end of October. However, no meeting was scheduled in between the UK government and European Union over the summer as of writing, with EU officials wanting to see a plan from Johnson first. Dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.39 while GBP/USD fell 0.04% to 1.2429 at the time of writing.

In the commodities market, crude oil price surged 0.15% to $57.10 per barrel as of writing following an unexpected drop in U.S crude inventories. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute, U.S crude stocks have fell more than expected last week, with the reading came in at a decline of 10.961 million, better than analysts’ expectations of a decrease of 4 million barrels. At the same time, tensions in the Middle East also provide ongoing support for the commodity as a potential confrontation could largely disrupt global oil supply. Next, gold price dips 0.04% to $1418.65 a troy ounce at the time of writing as dollar remain strengthening on trade optimism and debt deal.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative (25th)      GBP                      UK Prime Minister May Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 97.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.55, 98.20
Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2425. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.2490.

Resistance level: 1.2490, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2425, 1.2365

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior breakout below previous support level at 1.1185. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.1185.

Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1120, 1.1075

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its resistance level 108.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 107.60.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 107.25

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.7000. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6965.

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.6720. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to rebound back towards the resistance level 0.6720 as a short-term technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6635

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3160. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3090.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3050

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9860. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace towards the support level 0.9805 as a short-term technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 60-MA line.

Resistance level: 57.95, 60.20
Support level: 56.30, 54.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1421.40. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1435.90
Support level: 1405.00, 1386.35

24 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Greenback rises as debt ceiling raised.

US dollar extended its gains on yesterday after US President Donald Trump and Congress achieved consensus to raise debt ceiling which would ease the fears of a government default. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.45% to 97.35 against a basket of six major peers. The deal which was crafted by Democrat Nancy Pelosi and US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin will increase US debt ceiling until mid of 2021. The agreement to do so will produce hundreds of billions in new spending and eases fiscal crisis off Washington for more than two years. However, the budget increase while coupled with tax cuts has raised concerns over the lack of fiscal discipline. Nonetheless, gains on the greenback were limited following the release of downbeat housing data from the region. For the month of June, Existing Home Sales came in at only 5.27 million units, missing economist forecast of 5.35 million units. For the time being, investors will continue to ponder upon the release of second quarter GDP reading to attain further market signals. In the other region, pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.01% to 1.1151. Euro experienced a large selloff on yesterday as traders shies away from the currency ahead of European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting on tomorrow. Most investors are speculating ECB to change their policy forward guidance and signal upcoming cuts later this year.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.05% to $57.10 per barrel. Oil prices received some bullish support after American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large draw in US oil stocks by -10.961 million barrels last week. As for now, investors will wait for official figures from Energy Information Administration (EIA) later tonight for more market signals. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.04% to $1,417.05 a troy ounce as rising dollar decreases the appeal of the commodity for bearers of other currencies.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                                       Market                  Event

Tentative (25^th)   GBP                                        UK Prime Minister May Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout near 97.05. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of 97.50.

Resistance level: 97.50, 98.20

Support level: 97.05, 96.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2450. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.2400.

Resistance level: 1.2450, 1.2500

Support level: 1.2400, 1.2350

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.1150. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1150.

Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1150, 1.1110

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 108.25. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to advance further up after successfully closing above 108.25.

Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50

Support level: 107.70, 107.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6960.

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6960, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6655.

Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6735

Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 1.3140. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3140.

Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3220

Support level: 1.3060, 1.3010

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of downward channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 0.9890.

Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from 57.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85

Support level: 55.70, 55.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1415.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after closing below the level at 1415.00.

Resistance level: 1423.00, 1435.00

Support level: 1415.00, 1402.50

23 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar strengthened amid smaller rate cut expectations.

Dollar index which measure its value against a basket of six major currency pairs was extending its gains by 0.19% to 97.06 amid lowered expectations for an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Recently, FOMC members Richard Clarida and John William stated that Fed should take actions swiftly to support the economy instead of waiting for a major fall in economy before adjusting their monetary policy. However, their statements were merely a theoretical explanation rather than a real monetary policy action plan which lowered the expectations for a 50-basis point rate cut. Furthermore, Clarida also stated that US economy is still outperforming when compared to other countries’ economy however global economy slowdown remained an issue. Investors will now wait for further signals in the market such as today’s housing data to further anticipate Fed’s monetary policy decisions. In other news, pair of NZD/USD fell by 0.41% to 0.6728 as of writing following recent comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) regarding their monetary policy. RBNZ stated that New Zealand is now open to unconventional monetary stimulus which indicates possible monetary policy loosening. Further pressuring the Kiwi was recent tensions in US-Sino trade war after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on another $325 billion worth of Chinese goods for reneged on its promises to purchase US agriculture goods.

In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat around $56.22 per barrel amid mixed signals in the market. Supporting oil prices are current possible supply tensions arising from the Middle East tensions between Iran and US. On the other hand, pressuring oil prices was expectations of global economy slowdown which spiraled concerns on lower oil demand in the market. On the other hand, gold price extended its losses by 0.52% to $1,423.99 a troy ounce following weakened expectations of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 97.10. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 97.10, 97.55
Support level: 96.70, 95.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2440. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2510, 1.2595
Support level: 1.2440, 1.2375

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1185. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.1235, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near resistance level 108.15. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 108.15, 108.60
Support level: 107.60, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7000.

Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065

Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6720. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6650

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3105. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend it gains towards the resistance level 1.3160.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3105, 1.3040

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9840. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9895
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 56.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 57.85, 59.25
Support level: 56.00, 54.50

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1403.15.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1403.15, 1386.35

23 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Sterling droops as UK select the next Prime Minister.

Pound sterling received substantial selloff on Monday as UK Conservative Party begins their voting in choosing their next Prime Minister later today. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD rebounds by 0.04% to 1.2479. For the time being, either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt will be announced as the successor to Theresa May later today. According to recent reports, Boris Johnson whom is a hard Brexit advocate is currently regarded as the frontrunner for the Prime Minister selection. However, UK Foreign Minister Sir Alan Duncan resigned on yesterday in protest over the possibility of Johnson being selected as the next leader of the Parliament. Duncan is also expected to push for an emergency vote after the new PM has been announced. Due to heightened political and Brexit risk in the region, market participants sold off their position on the pound sterling and enters into other assets in the market. On the other hand, the dollar index rose 0.15% to 96.90 against six major currencies. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon Friday’s release of Gross Domestic Product before shifting their focus towards Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting bound to be held next week.

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.14% to $56.03 per barrel. Oil prices seesawed within a tight range following mixed signals that are present in the market such as geopolitical tension in between US-Iran and ongoing trade war. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.04% to $1,423.99 a troy ounce while traders look ahead towards the next release of US economic data for more signals.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher after breaking the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.75, 96.35

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1.2450.

Resistance level: 1.2500, 1.2535

Support level: 1.2450, 1.2400

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1200.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1275

Support level: 1.1200, 1.1150

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of the descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in mid-term towards the direction of 108.25.

Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50

Support level: 107.70, 107.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7070

Support level: 0.7000, 0.6960

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support of 0.6735. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6735.

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6710

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3140.

Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3220

Support level: 1.3060, 1.3010

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9890

Support level: 0.9805, 0.9730

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85

Support level: 55.70, 55.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1423.00. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after closing below 1423.00.

Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00

Support level: 1423.00, 1415.00

22 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar held gains amid Middle East tensions.

Index dollar held its recent gains against its basket of six major currency pairs as increasing U.S Gulf tensions have helped bolster the greenback. Despite increasing confirmation on rate cut, dollar still remains buoyed by heightening Middle East tensions that caused investors to put their bid on the greenback. Tension in the oil trade’s most important waterway, Strait of Hormuz have escalated where Iranian military seized an oil tanker and defying a British warship have caused investors to putting more bets on the safe-haven dollar and kept the volatile dollar remain on where it left. Besides that, the greenback received further positivity on New York President John Williams where his recent remarks provide further clarification and “not about potential policy actions”. His comments eased market expectation for 50 basis point interest rate cut in the near-term. Dollar index rose 0.05% to 96.80 as of writing. On the other hand, EUR/USD edge lower by 0.05% to 1.1217 at the time of writing as investors also brace for rate cut from ECB. According to recent report, the chance of rate cut from European Central Bank are increased where markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a 10 basis point cut this week compared to a 40% chance earlier during this week’s session. At the same time, weak German PPI also putting further pressure on the Euro where the data came in weaker as -0.4% against market expectation of -0.1% , the worst slump in inflation since December 2018.

In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 0.59% to $56.07 per barrel as of writing following ongoing tension in the Middle East. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had captured a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf after Britain seized an Iranian vessel earlier this month, ratcheting up tensions along a vital international oil shipping route. The increasing tension could jeopardize the commodity supply, therefore boosted the price higher. Next, gold price rebound 0.17% to $1427.96 from its recent dip amid a strong dollar despite rate cut.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.35. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2490. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level 1.2490.

Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2425

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior breakout below previous support level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1185.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1285

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1120

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above its 60-MA line.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 107.25

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7040. MACD which display bearish bias signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7135
Support level: 0.7040, 0.7000

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6770. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6825
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3050. Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.3090 or below the support level 1.3050 is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3090, 1.3110
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3015

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 56.30. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 56.30, 57.95
Support level: 54.60, 52.65

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1435.90.

Resistance level: 1435.90, 1453.75
Support level: 1421.40, 1405.00

22 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Fed to cut rates, others to follow.

US dollar was traded unchanged against other major currencies last Friday following a sharp rebound from the lower level. Overall, bearish sentiment towards the greenback remains intact as market participants expects the Federal Reserve to cut their interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the month. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, expectations for an interest cut by quarter basis points had reached 100% as of writing. In addition, US President Donald Trump continued to place his pressure upon the Fed to cut rates after slamming the central bank for its “faulty thought process” via Twitter. Similarly, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams commented last Thursday that Fed should “act quickly” in order to take “better preventive measures” rather than waiting for inflation to depreciates. Elsewhere, expectation of a rate cut from Fed has given the opportunity for emerging market to cut their interest rates more confidently without undermining the appeal of their currencies. Central banks in Indonesia, South Korea and South Africa has cut their interest rates by 25 basis points last Thursday. During early Asian trading session, the dollar index was flat at 96.75 against a basket of six major currencies.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.68% to $56.12 per barrel. Oil futures received higher demand following escalating tension in the Persian Gulf after Iran and United States exchanged fire and taking steps which could lead to potential military clash. Potential tension in between both nations would immobilize the most vital waterway for seaborn crude shipments and it would jeopardize the delivery of supply to other parts of the world. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.09% to $1,424.04 a troy ounce while market participants wait for more signals in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.75. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term towards the top level of descending channel.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.75, 96.35

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.

Resistance level: 1.2580, 1.2660

Support level: 1.2500, 1.2450

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1275

Support level: 1.1200, 1.1150

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a breakout occurs at the top level.

Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50

Support level: 107.70, 107.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical corrections.

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7070

Support level: 0.7000, 0.6960

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6710

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). Although MACD has illustrate bearish signal, a close below the MA line is required to attain further market signal.

Resistance level: 1.3060, 1.3090

Support level: 1.3045, 1.3020

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9890

Support level: 0.9805, 0.9730

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up after closing above the MA line.

Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85

Support level: 55.70, 55.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded flat near the support level of 1423.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggest its price to be traded higher after a successful rebound from the support level.

Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00

Support level: 1423.00, 1415.00

19 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

CAD rose as greenback slumps further.

Canadian dollar received higher bidding in the FX market following broad weakness experienced by the greenback since yesterday. As of writing, pair of USD/CAD slumped 0.03% to 1.3028 during Asian trading session. Greenback received tremendous selloff pressure after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams argued to initiate pre-emptive measures in order to avoid dealing with low inflation. Although New York Fed representative subsequently commented that William’s comments were academic and not an immediate policy direction, his comments came in parallel with similar comments from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida. When being compared to Bank of Canada, the chances for an interest rate cut as high as 50 basis points from the Federal Reserve rose following dovish comments from Fed officials. Likewise, Canadian dollar remains well in bid following a recovery in crude oil prices earlier this morning. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon the release of Retail Sales data from Canada in order to attain further market signals.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.97% to $56.16 per barrel. Oil prices rebounds from its low level after Iran has reportedly seized a foreign oil tanker near the Persian Gulf which pushes geopolitical tension higher. On the other hand, gold price retraces from its prior high levels by 0.16% to $1,443.97 a troy ounce while market participants continue to monitor for signals with regards to Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting bound to be held at the end of the month.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 96.50.

Resistance level: 96.50, 97.10
Support level: 96.20, 95.85

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1.2500.

Resistance level: 1.2575, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1245. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 107.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.75.

Resistance level: 107.75, 108.20
Support level: 107.40, 106.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7055. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7090.

Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7125
Support level: 0.7055, 0.7030

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6780. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6660

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3040. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2990.

Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2900

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9805. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9840.

Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9880
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9755

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 55.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 56.85.

Resistance level: 56.85, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1450.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1436.35.

Resistance level: 1450.00, 1470.80
Support level: 1436.35, 1424.05

19 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar falls amid Fed’s dovish comments, gold surged.

Index dollar which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs plunged to its lower levels following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Richard Clarida yesterday. Clarida criticized that policy makers should not delay necessary rate cuts until the economy is in total distress and emphasized that decision should be made following where the economy is actually going and the ongoing risks towards the economy. Besides that, Clarida also commented on recent mixed data in the US and also the disappointing global data which indicated more intense disinflationary pressures. The dovish comments had weighed on expectations for a rate cut of 50 basis point during Fed’s July policy meeting, causing investors to sell the dollar and enter into safe-haven gold. In other news, pair of GBP/USD rebounded from its low-levels yesterday following upbeat Retail Sales data. According to Office for National Statistics, UK retail sales for the month of June rose to 1.0% from -0.6%, beating economists’ expectation of -0.3%. The large rebound in the retail activity had rekindled investors’ confident towards the UK economy despite economic pressure from Brexit uncertainties. Besides that, the pound also received higher demand after the dovish comments from Fed which also led investors to escape the weaker dollar and enter into riskier assets. As of writing, index dollar inched higher by 0.02% to 96.43 while pair of GBP/USD inched higher by 0.01% to 1.2545.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounded by 0.52% to $55.90 per barrel following reports on another seizing of foreign oil tankers by Iran in the Persian Gulf, heightening geopolitical tensions. Before that, oil prices were falling due to diminishing tensions in the Middle East as US President Donald Trump tried to make peace with Iran. In reaching a truce between the two countries, Iran will most probably be allowed back into global market to export oils, providing bearish expectations for oil prices. Next, gold price retraced by 0.19% to $1443.15 a troy ounce after skyrocketing more than $30 yesterday following dovish comments from the Fed which led investors to flee into safe-haven market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 96.30. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 96.30.

Resistance level: 96.70, 97.10
Support level: 96.30, 95.80

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2510. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2595.

Resistance level: 1.2595, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2440

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1280. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 1.1235.

Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1335

Support level: 1.1235, 1.1185

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 107.60.

Resistance level: 107.60, 108.15
Support level: 107.05, 106.50

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7065. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7085.

Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7065, 0.7035

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6770. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6815.

Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6720

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3040. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2970.

Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3105
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2895

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.9800. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9895, 0.9935
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 56.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 56.00, 57.85
Support level: 54.50, 52.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1437.95. However, MACD which starting to display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1437.95.

Resistance level: 1457.10, 1475.50
Support level: 1437.95, 1421.40

18 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD in bid as rate cut fear diminishes.

Australian dollar extended gains during Asian trading session although recent data showed mixed signals in its employment market. For the month of June, Australia’s economy generated 21.1K fulltime jobs, significantly higher than previous month’s reading of only 2.4K. However, part-time jobs in June fell by 20.6K after rising up to 39.8K for the previous month. Nevertheless, unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%. Overall, investors continue to pour into the Australian market following broad weakness experienced by the US dollar due to poor housing data. In addition, a rise in Australia’s full-time job has eased market expectation towards Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates immediately in August. Prior, the central bank had cut its rates in May and June while they are widely expected to deliver another rate cut by the final quarter of the year 2019. On the other hand, Japanese yen remains well in bid following the release of optimistic trade data this morning. For the month of June, Japan’s trade balance came in at a higher surplus of 589.5 billion, significantly higher than forecast of 420.0 billion. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.31% to 0.7030 while USD/JPY fell 0.19% to 107.73.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.41% to $56.79 per barrel. Oil prices plunged sharply on yesterday after recent reports from Energy Information Administration shows a high accumulation in US crude oil stocks. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.26% to $1,422.57 a troy ounce while traders wait for more signals from the US market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 50 moving average line (Blue).

Resistance level: 97.10, 97.50
Support level: 96.50, 96.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2435. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.2435.

Resistance level: 1.2435, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2370, 1.2300

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1210, 1.1170

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 107.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 107.40.

Resistance level: 107.75, 108.20
Support level: 107.40, 106.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher currently still testing the resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.7030.

Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7055
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6725. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6725, 0.6660

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3050. However, MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 1.3095.

Resistance level: 1.3095, 1.3135
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2990

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 0.9880. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9840.

Resistance level: 0.9880, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 56.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 56.85.

Resistance level: 56.85, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1424.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1403.00.

Resistance level: 1424.05, 1436.35
Support level: 1403.00, 1383.60

18 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Greenbacks dips on IMF comment and weak housing data.

Index dollar have slipped against a basket of six major currency pairs as International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed out on overvalued dollar. According to report, IMF have stated that the dollar exchange rates is 6% to 12% too high, while the euro is undervalued for Germany, but overvalued by 4% for France based on economic fundamentals. The comment have since dragged down investors’ confidence towards the dollar. At the same time, the greenback faced further pressure on housing data where the permits for new construction project have slipped by 1.220M, weaker than market expectation with the reading 1.300M. On the other hand, British pound remain weak and fell to its lowest more than two years following increasing fear of hard Brexit and a possible general election. According to The Times of London, leading candidate Boris Johnson have expressed his proposal on holding a general election as early as next year. However, public opinion polls have suggested that the election may not give any party a clear majority. Besides that, fear of a no deal Brexit remains lingering with Boris Johnson pledged to deliver Brexit in October even if it is without a deal that could cushioned a blow to U.K’s economy. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.05% to 96.69 while GBP/USD fell 0.02% to 1.1432.

In the commodities market, crude oil price extend its losses by 0.03% to $56.58 per barrel at the time of writing despite a larger than expected draw on U.S crude stockpiles. According to Energy Information Association, crude oil inventories fell by 3.116 million barrels last week which is more than the market expectation with the decrease of 2.694 million barrels. However, the positive data unable to ignite market confidence as investors are more focused towards other fuel stockpiles numbers released by IEA. Next, gold price rose 0.06% to $1426.99 a troy ounce as of writing following a weaker dollar dragged by negative IMF comment and ongoing expectation of rate cut.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 97.00. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.35.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2425. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2490, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2425, 1.2365

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1240. MACD which display bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 107.60. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 106.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6720. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6770.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.3050. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3110.

Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2985

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9860. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 56.00. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 57.95, 60.20
Support level: 56.00, 54.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1440.00.

Resistance level: 1440.00, 1460.35
Support level: 1421.40, 1405.00

17 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro slumps as economic sentiment deteriorates.

Euro received tremendous bearish pressure on yesterday following bleak economic data from the region. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD recovered some losses by 0.03% to 1.1212 during Asian trading session. For the month of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment slumped further to -24.5, missing economist forecast of -22.1. Continuous negative trend in the German industry would likely to enforce further bearish sentiment upon the EU zone while justifying European Central Bank’s pledge to keep their monetary policy loose. The data has also increased market’s prospect for rate cut in the near-term which may see their current interest rate being slashed into the negative territory. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.04% to 108.17. Safe-haven Japanese yen received some bidding in the FX market after US President Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs upon China goods after Beijing failed to purchase more US farm goods. For the time being, investors will place their focus upon the developments in between US and China with regards to trade war in order to gain more market signals.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.35% to $57.62 per barrel. Oil prices stabilizes after American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels for last week. On the other hand, gold price appreciates by 0.01% to $1,405.96 a troy ounce due to heightened trade war risk in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.45. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.10.

Resistance level: 97.10, 97.50
Support level: 96.50, 96.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2435.

Resistance level: 1.2435, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2370, 1.2300

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1210. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.1210.

Resistance level: 1.1210, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1170, 1.1125

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 108.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 107.75.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.75, 107.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7030. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7000.

Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7055
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6780
Support level: 0.6660, 0.6600

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3095. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3050.

Resistance level: 1.3095, 1.3135
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2990

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line.

Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 57.85. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 56.85.

Resistance level: 58.60, 60.35
Support level: 56.85, 55.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1403.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1403.00.

Resistance level: 1424.05, 1436.35
Support level: 1403.00, 1383.60

17 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar surged over upbeat Retail Sales data, pound plunges.

Index dollar which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs surged back to its 97.00 level following higher than expected Retail Sales data. According to US Census Bureau, US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data in June came in at 0.4%, exceeding economists forecast of 0.1%. The data which acts as an indicator to measure consumer spending in the country had since reduced investors’ expectations of an aggressive policy easing by the Fed. Earlier this month, Fed monetary policy stance was rather dovish, signaling a possible aggressive easing by cutting rates more than just 25 basis point. However, with recent bullish jobs and retail sales data, the Fed is much likely to cut cash rates by 25 basis point during its July policy meeting while remaining cautious towards future US economic conditions. In other news, pair of GBP/USD plunged to its 3-months low amid stronger dollar and Brexit risks. According to recent reports, both leading candidate, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt for the new UK prime minister, had emphasized on opposing the Irish backstop issue, which reduced the chance of Brexit with a deal as the EU is highly unlikely to renegotiate with the current terms in place. Since the UK is left with two options, no-deal Brexit or no Brexit at all, and both candidates vowed to deliver Brexit by 31^st October, the chances of a no-deal Brexit had increased dramatically. As of writing, dollar index ticked higher by 0.01% to 96.97 while pair of GBP/USD ticked higher by 0.04% to 1.2405.

In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.30% to $57.59 per barrel. Oil prices was falling yesterday following lifted Middle East tensions as commented by US President Donald Trump when he said that progress had been made with Iran. Both countries had showed their willingness to avoid a war while Iran officials are now ready to negotiate on their missile program. Furthermore, the oil price received further downward pressure when the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a much lower drawdown in inventory as much as 1.4M last week despite ongoing efforts from OPEC and its allies to further production cut. Next, gold price inched higher by 0.02% to $1405.75 a troy ounce. The safe-haven gold plunged from its top-levels yesterday amid upbeat US data and stronger dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 96.70. MACD which indicate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.10.

Resistance level: 97.10, 97.55
Support level: 96.70, 96.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2440. However, MACD which starting to display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards back the current resistance level 1.2440.

Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2510
Support level: 1.2295, 1.2230

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1235. However, MACD which starting to display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.1235.

Resistance level: 1.1235, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 108.15. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the current support level 108.15.

Resistance level: 108.60, 109.05
Support level: 108.15, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7000.

Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6720. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6650.

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6650, 0.6600

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3040. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3105.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2970

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9870. However, MACD which indicate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.9870.

Resistance level: 0.9935, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9870, 0.9800

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 57.85. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 56.00.

Resistance level: 57.85, 59.25
Support level: 56.00, 54.50

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded flat in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 1403.15. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1403.15.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1403.15, 1386.35

16 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

Sterling pressured by Brexit risks.

Pound sterling struggled near prior low level against the US dollar following persistent Brexit risks in the region. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.2513. Sterling remains under pressure as investors were nervous with the prospect of Brexit-hardliner Boris Johnson winning the Conservative party leadership contest and elected to become the next UK Prime Minister. Prior, Boris reiterated to call for a Brexit regardless of its outcome by 31^st October deadline, fuming higher prospect for a possible hard Brexit in the region. Likewise, poor economic data and signals from Bank of England to cut its interest rates has dialed down market optimism towards the region. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.06% to 0.7035. Australian dollar continues to hover near one-week high after receiving some bullish support from yesterday’s release of China economic data. However, gains were limited as trade war risk in between US and China continues to persist due to the lack of developments between both countries.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.17% to $59.38 per barrel. However, overall sentiment towards the commodity remains bleak as US production facilities near the Gulf of Mexico resumes their production after Hurricane Barry swept through over the weekends. Likewise, investors began to cast doubt over the ability of OPEC to rebalance the global oil market as supply glut continues to persist. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.02% to $1,413.76 a troy ounce while market participants wait for further signals with regards to US economic performance in the near-term.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20.00                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

01.00(17^th)           USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing both 20 moving average line (Red) and 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the moving average lines.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.35
Support level: 96.50, 96.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2500. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2500.

Resistance level: 1.2575, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the channel top level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the channel bottom level at 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 107.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 108.20.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.75, 107.40

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7030. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7055.

Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7030, 0.7000

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6725. MACD which display bullish bias momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6780
Support level: 0.6660, 0.6600

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3050.  MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3050.

Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2900

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9885.

Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 60.35.

Resistance level: 60.35, 61.30
Support level: 58.60, 57.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat near the 20 moving average line (Red). Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout below 20 moving average line (Red) is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1424.05, 1436.35
Support level: 1403.00, 1383.60

16 July 2019                        Morning Session Analysis

Dollar jumped following upbeat Empire State data.

Index dollar rose against a basket of six major currency pairs following the positive release of NY Empire State data. According to the New York Federal Reserve, manufacturing activity in New York have record its biggest increase in more than two years with the manufacturing index reading came in at 4.3, exceed market expectation with the reading of 1.6 and also previous reading of -8.6 in June. The data suggest that the region have starting to expand and bounce back which could help alleviate the economy, therefore provide some support for the greenback. However, market remains cautious as expectation of 25 basis points rate cut by Fed continue to dominate the market sentiment and investors awaiting further data to look for more clues. The dollar edge higher by 0.02% to 96.52 at the time of writing. On the other hand, NZD/USD extend its gains by 0.20% to 0.6726 as of writing following the release of CPI data. According to Statistics New Zealand, consumer price index for second quarter have matched market expectation with the reading of 0.6%. The data have shown that economy in New Zealand remain modest, however the numbers still in line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent forecast, thus also highlight the possibilities of a rate cut in August.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.11% to $59.37 per barrel as of writing as output increase and diminishing demand outlook. According to recent reports, oil producers have start to restoring some of the nearly 74% of output that was shut at U.S. Gulf of Mexico platforms on Hurricane Barry, fear of oversupply remains lingering among investors. At the same time, China data which showed the country’s slowest quarterly economic growth in decades also pointing out for weaker oil consumption by the biggest importer, therefore dragging further the commodity for the second day. Next, gold price inched lower by 0.17% to $1411.53 a troy ounce following the rebound of US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20.00                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

01.00(17^th)           USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing its MA-line. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains after successfully closing above its MA-line.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2555. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2490.

Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2425

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from is top-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1240.

Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360

Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower-levels. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 108.20.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 106.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7040. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace towards the support level 0.7000 as a short-term technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6720. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower after successfully closing below the support level 0.6720.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6880
Support level: 0.6720, 0.6675

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3050. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3110
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2900

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its low-levels. MACD which display bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9860.

Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 60.20. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 57.95.

Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 57.95, 56.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded flat above its 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1421.40 or below the support level 1405.00 is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1440.00
Support level: 1405.00, 1386.35

15 July 2019                        Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD rose following bullish data from China.

Australian dollar extended its gains during Asian trading session after the release of economic data from its major trade partner – China. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD was quoted up 0.15% to 0.7026. In China, Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter came in at 6.2%, well with economists forecast. In addition, Industrial Production for the month of June grew at 6.3%, significantly higher than economist’s expectation for a rise of up to 5.2%. Both data from China has eased market concern for a possible economic slowdown due to rising trade tensions in between US and China. Similarly, as China is Australia’s largest trade partner, the data has eased some bearish economic outlook upon the region as well. For the time being, investors will pay attention towards the release meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia at tomorrow morning to gain further market signals with regards to Australian dollar. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD ticks up 0.05% to 1.3035. The pair continues to hover near its 8-months low due to higher chances for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month end while coupled with bullish fundamentals from the Canadian economy.

In terms of commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.70% to $59.86 per barrel. Oil futures received some bearish momentum as traders closes their position and take profit after its price hits a new high last week. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.34% to $1,410.73 a troy ounce due to a rebound in US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 96.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.15.

Resistance level: 96.45, 96.90
Support level: 96.15, 95.85

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2555. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2610.

Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2555, 1.2500

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.1280. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 107.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 108.20.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.75, 107.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7025. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7055.

Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7090
Support level: 0.7025, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6725. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6725, 0.6780
Support level: 0.6660, 0.6600

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous channel bottom level at 1.3050. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 1.3050.

Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2900

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9885.

Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).

Resistance level: 60.35, 61.30
Support level: 58.60, 57.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average lien (Red).  MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).

Resistance level: 1424.05, 1436.35
Support level: 1403.00, 1383.60