150719 Morning Session Analysis
15 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained pressured despite positive inflation data.
Index dollar measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs inched lower by 0.01% to 96.37 during early Asian trading session despite a positive reading in US Producer Price Index. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US PPI came in at 0.1%, hitting economist expectation while its Core PPI rose to 0.3% from 0.2%. However, despite bullish inflation data as seen in US Core CPI and PPI, Federal Reserve (Fed) is still widely expected to cut rate by 25 basis point during their policy meeting at the end of this month. Market sentiment remained cloudy while dollar still lingers above its 96 level as investors await further monetary policy actions from the Fed to gauge the dollar market. In other news, pair of GBP/USD fell by 0.05% to 1.2565 as of writing after successfully rebounding back from its lower levels last Friday. The pound received higher demand on Friday following weaker dollar which increase the appeal of riskier assets. Furthermore, recent reports showed that leading candidate Boris Johnson would aim for a US Trade Deal as his first move as the Prime Minister. Although Johnson is determined to deliver Brexit by 31st October, many fears that Johnson would force a no-deal Brexit which would further dampen the economic slowdown in UK if no deal was prepared by then.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell lower by 0.38% to $60.10 per barrel. Investors are now eyeing on China’s GDP and Industrial Production data to further gauge the oil market. As China is one of the world’s largest crude importer, a downbeat data would prove slower business and economic activity thus leading to lower demand for crude oil. Next, gold price falls lower by 0.15% to $1412.75 a troy ounce as investors heightened risk appetite caused them to enter into riskier assets such as pound and euro.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14.30 | CHF – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 06:45 (16th) | NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.1% | 0.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.95, 97.55
Support level: 96.35, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2510. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction back towards the support level 1.2510.
Resistance level: 1.2595, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1280. Due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggest to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 1.1280 or below the support level 1.1235 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1335
Support level: 1.1235, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 108.15. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 107.60.
Resistance level: 108.15, 109.05
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7000. However, MACD which indicate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards back the current support level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.6650. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains in short term towards the resistance level 0.6720.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6650, 0.6600
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the resistance level 1.3040. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.3040.
Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3105
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2895
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9870. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term back to the current resistance level 0.9870.
Resistance level: 0.9870, 0.9935
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9745
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 61.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 59.60
Resistance level: 61.05, 62.90
Support level: 59.60, 57.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1403.15. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction towards back to the support level 1403.15.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1403.15, 1386.35
120719 Afternoon Session Analysis
12 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
ECB may cut interest rate further.
New Zealand dollar rebounds from its low level during Asian trading session despite bearish data from the region. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD rose 0.18% to 0.6671. For the month of June, Business NZ PMI came in at only 51.3, missing economists’ forecast for an increase to 53.1. A slump in Business PMI portrays increasing recession risk in New Zealand which is well in line with Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s prior dovish pledge. However, market participants remain fixated at other riskier assets as they held off from entering into US market due to higher chances for a 25-basis point rate cut at the end of the month. For the time being, investors’ will place their attention upon China’s trade balance data which will be released later in the evenings. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rebounds by 0.09% to 1.1263. Euro received some bearish pressure on yesterday after European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting minutes shows their readiness to ease their policy further in light of declining inflation expectation and economic slowdown in the EU zone. The minute suggests that ECB policymakers may cut their interest rates further or even restart its 2.6 trillion-euro bond-purchasing program. However, market reaction was rather short-lived as most of them has priced-in the fact for further easing from the ECB prior to the meeting minutes.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.27% to $60.48 per barrel. Oil futures received stable demand from the market after US oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico cut more than half of their output to face a tropical storm. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.39% to $1,408.88 a troy ounce due to higher chances for a 25-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 01.00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 788 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level 96.50.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.35
Support level: 96.50, 96.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2555.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average (Blue). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the 20 moving average lien (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6965. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 0.6665. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6705.
Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6740
Support level: 0.6665, 0.6635
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous channel bottom level at 1.3050. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2990.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3095
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2900
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 0.9925, 0.9965
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level near 60.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 60.35.
Resistance level: 61.30, 62.85
Support level: 60.35, 58.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1401.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1401.50.
Resistance level: 1420.55, 1436.35
Support level: 1401.50, 1383.60
120719 Morning Session Analysis
12 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar regains footing on strong inflation data.
Dollar index have edge higher against its basket of six major currency rivals by 0.03% to 96.62 at the time of writing following a stronger than expected U.S inflation data which eased the prospect of Fed rate cut. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, core consumer price index which exclude food and energy rose 0.3% in June, its largest increase in almost one and a half years. At the same time, separate data such as Initial Jobless Claims also came out strong with the result of 209K, which is better than market expectation with the reading of 223K. The positive data which show signs of improvement in the underlying inflation could tempered the prospect of a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut by FED later this month, therefore provided some boost for the dollar. However, investors still remain cautious as market still expecting for a quarter percentage point cut as U.S. policymakers seek to support a slowing economy. On the other hand, GBP/USD notched up 0.11% to 1.2599 as of writing following increasing chance of leading candidate Boris Johnson winning the Tory leadership contest. According to latest polls, front-runner Boris Johnson are looking to be on course for a landslide victory as the contest are coming to a close end within 12 days. Despite fresh warnings from the Bank of England of the economic damage that could follow a “no-deal” Brexit, market remain confident and hoping that Boris Johnson could succeed Theresa May in delivering Brexit.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remains steady and edge higher 0.25% to $60.47 per barrel as of writing amid escalating tension between U.S and Iran and potential supply disruption. In recent reports, crude oil sentiment was supported by rumors concerning the US prepares for an air strike over Iranian targets in Syria. At the same time, reports on a tropical storm with “extreme rain” which is forecasted to hit the U.S Gulf coast that could sent oil operation shutting down its production joined further positive sentiment for the oil market. Next, gold price slightly rebound from its losses by 0.25% to $1407.54 a troy ounce at the time of writing after a strong inflation data that beat Fed expectation have previously dragged the safe-haven gold lower.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 01.00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 788 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.35. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.35, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green) and support level 1.1240. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 20-MA line and support level.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (red). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6965. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6675. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 1.3050. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2985
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9905. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 60.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.15
Support level: 60.20, 57.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 1405.00, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35. 1370.00
110719 Afternoon Session Analysis
11 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
CAD rebounds as doves hides away.
Canadian dollar received higher demand from the financial market following the release of interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC). On yesterday, BoC announced to keep their interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, well within market’s expectation. Likewise, BoC was seemingly less dovish than expected by citing recent improvements in its regional economic data. The central bank was relatively optimistic towards households spending due to declining long-term mortgage rates while coupled with a healthy labor market which has offset some degree of risks from trade war and global recession. As such, policymakers maintained a “wait-and-see” approach by gauging next few economic releases before undertaking considerable measures in terms of its monetary policy setting. As of writing, pair of USD/CAD extended its losses by 0.11% to 1.3066. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.04% to 0.6960. The Australian dollar received some bullish support after Home Loans for the month of May came in at 0.0%, fared better than economic expectation to decrease by -0.6%.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.58% to $60.53 per barrel. Oil prices hits its highest level in over a month following potential hurricane threat near Gulf of Mexico which may significantly reduce oil production temporarily. Similarly, gold price rose 0.19% to $1,421.66 a troy ounce due to dovish statement delivered by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
22:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (Mom) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 221K | 220K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 96.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.15.
Resistance level: 96.50, 96.90
Support level: 96.15, 95.85
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2500. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2555.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1280. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 107.85. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level at 107.85.
Resistance level: 108.20, 108.70
Support level: 107.85, 107.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6965. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6665. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6705.
Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6740
Support level: 0.6665, 0.6635
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3050. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3095, 1.3135
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2990
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous resistance level at 0.9895. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9840.
Resistance level: 0.9895, 0.9925
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 60.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.30.
Resistance level: 61.30, 62.85
Support level: 60.35, 58.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1420.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1436.35.
Resistance level: 1436.35, 1450.00
Support level: 1420.55, 1401.50
110719 Analisis Sesi Pagi
11 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls after Powell’s dovish statement, safe-haven gains.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs fell 0.10% to 96.56 following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on trade uncertainties and concerns of slow global economic growth which continues to pressure the dollar market. During the Fed’s congressional testimony, Powell emphasized that with ongoing trade uncertainties, business investment had since slowed down notably in recent months and warned about risk of weak inflation being more persistent than expected. Although expectations of a 50-basis point rate cut were lowered, Powell’s statement did not remove the possibility for a 25-basis point cut during its monetary policy meeting this month, encouraging investors to sell dollar and enter into safe-haven assets. Throughout this year, the Fed had since changed their stance from a ‘wait and see’ approach to its readiness to ‘act as appropriate’, providing sustainment for US economic growth. In other news, pair of GBP/USD inched higher by 0.06% to 1.2505 as of writing. The pound was initially being pressured by its downbeat data, with Manufacturing Production slumping to 1.4%, missing its forecast of 2.2%, while GDP met with economist’s expectation to grow the 0.3%. However, the pound received high demand after Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell left the market with a dovish stance and signals of rate cut this month.
In the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.45% to $60.50 per barrel as of writing following another fall in its stockpiles. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories fell 9.5M barrels, exceeding economist’s expectation to fall 3.1M. Falling inventories in the US had lowered concerns of oversupply in the market while pushing oil prices higher. Besides that, a weaker dollar also helped increasing the appeal of crude oil. Next, gold price skyrocketed yesterday, increasing by 0.38% to $1424.05 a troy ounce following dovish Fed which caused investors to flee the dollar market and enter into safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
22:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (Mom) (Jun) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 221K | 220K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.95. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.95, 97.55
Support level: 96.35, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2510. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2510, 1.2595
Support level: 1.2440, 1.2390
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1235. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1335
Support level: 1.1235, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 108.15. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.15, 107.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6965. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6930, 0.6900
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6650. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3105. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3040.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9870. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9935, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9870, 0.9800
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 59.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.05
Resistance level: 61.05, 62.90
Support level: 59.60, 57.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1437.95.
Resistance level: 1437.95, 1457.10
Support level: 1421.40, 1403.15
100719 Afternoon Session Analysis
10 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD slumps as China data disappoints.
Australian dollar extended its losses during Asian trading session following bearish economic data from its major exporting partner China. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.09% to 0.6921. In China, its Producer Price Index for the month of June came in at 0.0%, missing economist expectation to rise by 0.3%. The lower than expected inflationary data for producers has cast a bearish outlook upon the Aussie dollar and thus evoking higher short volume this morning. However, its losses were limited after China’s Consumer Price Index came in within economist expectation with the reading of 2.7% for the month of June. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY rose 0.05% to 108.90. Japanese yen undergoes higher selling pressure following a change of risk appetite while investors look ahead towards testimonial from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in front of US Congress tonight.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.43% to $58.50 per barrel. Oil price edged higher after American Petroleum Institute reported a higher than expected draw in oil inventories by -8.129 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.36% to $1,392.72 a troy ounce due to increasing demand for riskier assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
22.00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
22.00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
22.15 CAD BoC Press Conference
02.00(11th) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | -0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) | -3.9% | 2.2% | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.085M | -3.081M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.90. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.35.
Resistance level: 97.35, 98.00
Support level: 96.90, 96.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2500. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 1.2500.
Resistance level: 1.2500, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2435, 1.2370
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1210. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1210, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1125
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 108.70. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 109.20.
Resistance level: 109.20, 109.55
Support level: 108.70, 108.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6935. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6910.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6570.
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3135. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3135.
Resistance level: 1.3135, 1.3165
Support level: 1.3095, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing the support level at 0.9925. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.9925.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 58.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 60.35.
Resistance level: 60.35, 61.30
Support level: 58.60, 57.85
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 1401.50, 1420.55
Support level: 1383.60, 1354.55
100719 Morning Session Analysis
10 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar inch higher as market focused on pared rate cut expectation.
Dollar index continue to rise against its basket of six major currency pairs despite downbeat job data. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, job vacancies in U.S have fell weaker to 7.323M, which missed economist’s expectation with the reading of 7.470M. However, market was unfazed and regain its footing as investors continue to question “the excessive dovish hopes” they had for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Expectations for a 50-basis point cut have fallen to 5% from 25% last week and investors postulate that there is a higher chance the Fed will not cut rates at the September meeting. Market continue to anticipate for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech happen later today as the speech which neutral or even slightly hawkish, would support the argument that additional rate cuts will be limited. Dollar index rose 0.06% to 97.09 as of writing. On the other hand, USD/CAD edge higher 0.04% to 1.3129 at the time of writing ahead of BoC interest rate decision. Market remains awaiting for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to release its rate statement on later today, as the market anticipates the central bank keeping rates intact at 1.75 percent. Governor Poloz is also expected to continue with the dovish rhetoric that has become common place with major central banks.
In the commodities market, crude oil price regain its strength and rose 0.60% to $58.60 per barrel as of writing following a drop in crude stockpiles. According to the data from American Petroleum Institute (API), with the inventories have dropped by 8.1 million barrels, which is more than forecasted reading for a decrease of 3.1 million. Inventories have fell for the fourth week in a row, which have alleviated concerns about oversupply and support the demand for crude oil while market awaits further confirmation on official figures from Energy Information Administration. Next, gold price have plummeted 0.33% to $1393.24 a troy ounce at the time of writing following bullish buyers continue to dominate the greenback which caused investors to turned their safe-haven assets into the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
22.00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
22.00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
22.15 CAD BoC Press Conference
02.00(11th) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | -0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) | -3.9% | 2.2% | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.085M | -3.081M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 97.00. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.60.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.20
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2490. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2425.
Resistance level: 1.2490, 1.2555
Support level: 1.2425, 1.2365
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1240. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to rebound back towards the resistance level 1.1240 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 108.70. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace back towards the support level 108.70 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.15, 109.70
Support level: 108.70, 108.20
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.6930. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6635. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.3110. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3160.
Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3110, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9940. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 57.95. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 57.95, 56.00
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1386.35 after successfully breaking below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1405.00, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35. 1370.00
090719 Afternoon Session Analysis
9 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD depreciates as confidence deteriorates.
Australian dollar extended its bearish momentum following the release of economic data during Asian trading session. Pair of AUD/USD was quoted down 0.19% to 0.6959 as of writing. According to National Australia Bank, Business Confidence is Australia for the month of June came in within expectation at 2, significantly lower than prior month reading of 7. Deteriorating business confidence has dialed down market optimism towards the region as ongoing trade war lead to persistent recessive risk towards its economy. Likewise, with fresh doubts over US-China trade war negotiation in tow, traders continue to pile into US dollar following diminishing aggressive rate cut speculation from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.1212. With the lack of economic releases from the EU, traders held off from making large sum of trading upon the currency while waiting for more market signals.
As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.21% to $57.30 per barrel. Oil price extended its losses while traders place their doubts over OPEC production cut plan as global oversupply hovers at a higher level. Similarly, gold price slumped 0.10% to $1,393.81 a troy ounce due to a rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (May) | 14.7% | -2.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (May) | 7.449M | 7.470M | – |
| 04:30 (10th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.000M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.90. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.35.
Resistance level: 97.35, 98.00
Support level: 96.90, 96.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2500. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.2555.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2435
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1210. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.1210.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1210, 1.1170
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 108.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 108.70.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6965. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6935, 0.6910
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6635.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6665
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6570
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 50 moving average line (Blue).
Resistance level: 1.3135, 1.3165
Support level: 1.3095, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9925. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish signal suggests the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 0.9925.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9925, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 57.85, 58.60
Support level: 56.85, 55.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1401.50.
Resistance level: 1401.50, 1422.55
Support level: 1383.60, 1355.15
090719 Morning Session Analysis
9 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Market consolidates ahead of Powell speech.
Dollar index which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs was floating near its 97.00 level while investors wait for further signals this week from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell as he delivers a speech and testimony regarding US economic outlook and Fed’s monetary policy actions. The testimony which covers two sessions will include a prepared statement and also a question and answer session where high market volatility can be expected. Investors are focusing on what Powell might deliver as recent upbeat jobs data had since scaled back the expectations of an aggressive monetary policy loosening by the Fed. Market is now currently expecting a 25 basis point rate cut rather than 50 basis point during Fed’s July monetary policy meeting after the recent job data proved a stronger labor market. In other news, pair of GBP/USD continues to hover near its 6-months low as pressure from Brexit uncertainties and stronger dollar continues to haunt the pound market. With a new Prime Minister being elected this month, investors are concerned that a no-deal Brexit suggested by leading candidate Boris Johnson might further worsen the UK’s economy. Besides that, recent slump in its economic data had also lowered investors’ confidence towards the pound. As of writing, dollar index was flat at 96.95 while pair of GBP/USD inched lower by 0.02% to 1.2512.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.07% to $57.43 per barrel. Sentiment in oil markets remained cloudy even after OPEC’s announcement of further production cut with its allies. Investors are now focusing on Fed’s interest rate decision to determine a possible trend for crude oil as a weaker dollar will increase oil’s appeal. Besides that, gold price fell 0.13% to $1393.30 a troy ounce as expectations for an aggressive rate cut was lowered down following upbeat jobs data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:45 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (May) | 14.7% | -2.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (May) | 7.449M | 7.470M | – |
| 04:30 (10th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.000M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 96.95. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.95, 97.55
Support level: 96.35, 95.80
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2510. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2595.
Resistance level: 1.2595, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2510, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1235. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards back the resistance level 1.1235.
Resistance level: 1.1235, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 108.70.MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.15.
Resistance level: 109.15, 109.75
Support level: 108.70, 108.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6965. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7035
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6650. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards back the resistance level 0.6650.
Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6720
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3105. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9935. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0005.
Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0095
Support level: 0.9935, 0.9870
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 57.60. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 56.00.
Resistance level: 57.60, 59.60
Support level: 56.00, 54.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1403.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term back towards the resistance level 1403.15.
Resistance level: 1403.15, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35, 1370.00
080719 Afternoon Session Analysis
8 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
All eyes on Powell’s testimony.
US dollar retraces slightly from its prior high levels while investors shift their focus towards this week’s testimonial delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is expected to reinforce market expectation for a late July rate cut or to rein them altogether when he delivers his testimony in front of US Congress later this week. His testimony comes after a strong Nonfarm Payrolls report for the month of June which raised questions whether Fed would initiate a rate cut later this month. Thus, market participants will seek for further clues during his testimony as Fed previously signaled to loosen up their monetary policy if necessary, in order to sustain US economic growth momentum. On the other hand, pound sterling continues to hover near six-months low following a large selloff last Friday due to optimistic Nonfarm Payrolls report. Likewise, recent sluggishness in terms of economy has also raised prospect for an interest rate cut from the Bank of England, which in return places bearish sentiment upon the pound sterling. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.06% to 96.76 while pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2525.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.21% to $57.49 per barrel. Traders began to question the ability of OPEC’s oil production cut after Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported that crude oil stocks still overhang at 10 times more than previous levels during 2010-2014. On the other hand, gold price was flat at $1,399.08 a troy ounce as market participants wait for further signals from the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its retracement toward the support level at 96.50.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.35
Support level: 96.50, 96.15
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 20 moving average line (red). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2435
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1210, 1.1170
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6965. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6635. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6665.
Resistance level: 0.6665, 0.6705
Support level: 0.6635, 0.6600
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3095, 1.3135
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2990
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support level near 0.9895. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.9895.
Resistance level: 0.9925, 0.9965
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9840
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 57.85, 58.60
Support level: 56.85, 55.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 50 moving average line (Blue).
Resistance level: 1401.50, 1436.00
Support level: 1383.60, 1354.60
080719 Morning Session Analysis
8 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar retrace from surge on strong jobs data.
Dollar index which measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs have slip from its previous high by 0.05% to 96.86 as of writing after soaring on last Friday NFP data. According to the U.S Department of Labor, the economy have added more jobs than expected in June, with the Nonfarm payrolls rose by 224k, beating market expectations of 160K and also a sharp rebound from previous reading of 72k in May. Despite Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate data missed its estimate, market remains positive on the upbeat jobs data as the data would dampening expectations of Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively to hold off a slowdown. On the other hand, USD/CAD receive mixed reaction and slips 0.01% to 1.3072 at the time of writing. Job numbers were lower than expected, with the economy in Canada has lost 2200 jobs according to Statistics Canada. However, strong fundamentals and expectation of central bank keeping its rate steady continue to support the Loonie against the dollar. Market will now await for Bank of Canada meeting this week to determine further direction for the Loonie.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.14% to $57.53 per barrel while lingering demand worries continue to dominate the market. According to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), survey shows that oil stock was at 10 times higher to 2010-2014 levels which have raised questions on whether nine months of extended OPEC cuts would be enough to rebalance the market. Besides that, a much smaller than expected decline in inventories last week also added further concern on the slow demand. Next, gold price plummets 0.10% to $1397.76 a troy ounce as of writing following strong dollar on upbeat NFP.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (May) | -1.9% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 97.00. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.35.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2490. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2555.
Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610
Support level: 1.2490, 1.2425
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low-levels. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1240.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 108.70. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 108.20.
Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15
Support level: 108.20, 107.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6965. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7040
Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6635. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3110. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2985
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9905. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 57.95. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 57.95, 60.20
Support level: 56.00, 54.60
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1386.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1405.00.
Resistance level: 1405.00, 1421.40
Support level: 1386.35. 1370.00
050719 Afternoon Session Analysis
5 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Slow market ahead of jobs data, Brexit remains an issue.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was inching lower by 0.01% near 96.30 while market participants are waiting for the release of jobs and wages data from the US to obtained further signal in the market. The release of today’s data is expected to bring large impact as US Federal Reserve (Fed) is most likely to refer the data readings to decide on their future monetary policy stance. As the Fed is already highly expected to cut rate by 25 basis point later this month, a dovish reading from the data might cause the Fed to signal more rate cut by the end of this year. Besides that, unresolved trade tensions further apply pressure to global market despite the two economic powerhouses agreed to put additional tariffs on hold while resuming negotiations. In other news, the pound sterling remained pressured by ongoing Brexit tensions while pair of GBP/USD was traded higher by 0.06% to 1.2580. Recent reports showed that front-runner for UK’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that delivering Brexit will be his top priority as failure to deliver would result in the nation splitting apart. However, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond warned that a no deal Brexit will put the union and their economy at risk. Johnson emphasized that the union will come first but failure to deliver Brexit by 31st October will be the most prejudicial to the union. According to the statement, although Brexit is highly expected to be delivered by the stated date, a higher risk of no-deal Brexit continues to haunt the market sentiment.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.14% to $56.67 per barrel while investors wait for further sentiment from the market before placing their bets on the commodity. On the other hand, gold price was falling by 0.15% to $1,418.30 a troy ounce as investors are holding on to their investments amid cloudy signals in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 75K | 160K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 3.6% | 3.6% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | 27.7K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 55.9 | 55.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 96.35. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest index to be traded lower towards the support level 95.50.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near below the resistance level 1.2595. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2515, 1.2440
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level. However, MACD which display bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to rebound towards the resistance level 1.1305.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1235
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 107.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 108.15.
Resistance level: 108.15, 108.70
Support level: 107.60, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7000.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7115
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6970
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6675. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6640
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3080. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the current resistance level 1.3080.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3160
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2895
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9855. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9800.
Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9910
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 57.55. Due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level or below the support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 57.55, 59.60
Support level: 56.00, 54.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1421.40. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1403.15.
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95
Support level: 1403.15, 1386.35
050719 Morning Session Analysis
5 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Market anticipates the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls.
Greenback was traded flat against other major currencies on yesterday following the closure of US market in conjunction with Independence Day. In a quiet economic calendar for the whole day, market participants take a “wait-and-see” approach while waiting for the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report later tonight. Prior, ADP report shows a lower-than-expected jobs creation within the US private sector. As the data is highly correlated with tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls, investors halt from making large amount of trading. Likewise, tonight’s jobs report will likely provide market participants with more signals with regards to Federal Reserve monetary policy stance whom is expected to cut its interest rates within 25 – 50 basis points range at the end of the month. Thus, a bearish Nonfarm Payrolls report may further emphasize the need for a shift in monetary policy from tightening to loosening in order to support any downfall in the US economy. Likewise, investors will also place their attention upon jobs report from Canada which would also provide further signals with regards to Bank of Canada’s future monetary policy sentiment. As of writing, the dollar index ticked down 0.03% to 96.29 while pair of USD/CAD was traded flat around 1.3047.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.12% to $56.73 per barrel. Oil prices was traded in a tight range as traders await further signals from the market. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.52% to $1,422.75 a troy ounce as investors currently pricing in a 100% chance for an interest rate cut from the US later this month.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (May) | -1.9% | -0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 75K | 160K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 3.6% | 3.6% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | 27.7K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 55.9 | 55.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.80, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level of 1.2570. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for further signal before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2670
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2515
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for further signals before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50
Support level: 107.70, 107.30
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7110
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Both MACD and Stochastic which illustrate rebound signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level near 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.9835. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9835.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after breaking the trendline formation.
Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85
Support level: 55.70, 53.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up in mid-term, in tandem within upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00
Support level: 1415.00, 1390.00
040719 Afternoon Session Analysis
4 July 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar slumped lower as weakness persist, AUD gains.
Dollar index which measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs have fell 0.10% to 96.18 at the time of writing as greenback sellers remain dominant on the greenback weakness. Recent weak data where ADP shows lower-than-expected jobs generation in the private sector continues to fuel the sell-off upon US dollar. Besides that, falling Treasury yields boosted expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut their interest rates later this month for the first time in a decade where as it inches towards the lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years. Market participants will now focus upon U.S non-farm payrolls for further signals with regards to the direction of the greenback. Meanwhile, AUD/USD gains 0.21% to 0.7040 as of writing despite downbeat retail sales data. According to Australian Bureau of Statistic, retail sales in Australia have slipped 0.1% which missed market expectation with the reading of 0.2%. However, bullish bets upon the Aussie dollar remain resilient after recent report shows that the Australian government is close to secure a major tax cut plan which may further support their economy.
As for commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.82% to $56.81 per barrel due to weak oil stockpile data. According to Energy Information Association, U.S crude oil stockpiles dropped 1.1 million barrels last week, which is lesser than expected for a decrease of 3 million barrels. The data indicates that the oil market remains oversupplied despite recent extension on production cut by OPEC and its allies. On the other hand, gold price inched higher 0.13% to $1420.51 a troy ounce due to depreciation in treasury yields which places pressure upon the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.4% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 96.35. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 95.50.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2555. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2655
Support level: 1.2555, 1.2490
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the bottom-level of the channel. However, MACD which display starting bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to rebound towards the resistance level 1.1305.
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 107.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 107.80, 108.20
Support level: 107.35, 106.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7055.
Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7115
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6970
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6720. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level of 0.6675.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6635
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level of 1.3055. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to rebound towards the resistance level 1.3110 as a short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3160
Support level: 1.3055, 1.2985
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing the support level 0.9860. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 55.85.
Resistance level: 57.95, 60.20
Support level: 55.85, 54.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1421.40. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1405.00
Resistance level: 1421.40, 1440.00
Support level: 1405.00, 1386.35
040719 Morning Session Analysis
4 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Muted reaction as Independence Day approaches.
US dollar remains traded within a tight range following the release of bearish economic data from the region. According to ADP, Nonfarm Employment Change for the month of June came in at 102K, missing economist forecast for a reading up to 140K. In addition, Institute for Supply Management reported that its Non-Manufacturing PMI experienced slight contraction to 55.1 from 56.9 for the month of June. Both data has further cemented the course for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the end of the month. However, market reaction towards both data was rather limited as US market will be closed for trading today in conjunction with Independence Day. On the other hand, pound sterling was settled lower on yesterday due to lesser-than-expected activity reading for its Services sector. According to Markit, UK’s Services PMI for the month of June came in slightly lower at 50.2, missing economist forecast to remain stable at 51.0. The data was released a day after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signaled to make adjustments upon its monetary policy in order to support Britain’s growth due to ongoing trade risks in the global market. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 96.27 while pair of GBP/USD recovered its losses by 0.08% to 1.2580.
As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.33% to $57.09 per barrel. Bearish pressure continues to limit its gains after EIA reported that its inventories fell by -1.085 million barrels last week, lesser than forecasted reading of -2.964 million barrels. Similarly, gold price fell by 0.16% to $1,416.59 a troy ounce due to profit taking after peaking at one-week high.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Independence Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.4% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 96.35. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.80, 95.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2670
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2515
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 107.70.
Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50
Support level: 107.70, 107.30
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout from the top.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7110
Support level: 0.7005, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6710. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765
Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD extended its losses while currently testing at the support of 1.3050. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout at 57.25. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 58.85.
Resistance level: 58.85, 59.60
Support level: 57.25, 55.70
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1415.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to extend further up after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00
Support level: 1415.00, 1390.00