Daily Analysis

3 July 2019                           Afternoon Session Analysis

More trade war? Safe-haven dominates market.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded flat near 96.20 ahead of an early closure for US Independence Day. On the other hand, safe-haven assets underwent large demand following uncertainties in the market after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on $4 billion of European Union’s goods due to an argument over subsidies for European aircraft manufacturer. Besides that, Trump also announced more than 400% import duties on Vietnam steel as he accused the products was shipped from Southeast Asian countries to escape from tax. In an interview last week, the US President also stated that Vietnam had been the single worst abuser in the trade war with China, as a lot of companies moved their production to Vietnam to evade punitive US sanctions. Trump’s protectionism for US domestic business had since further deteriorating the global economy, causing disruptions and uncertainties in to the market. Furthermore, an almost certain expectations of rate cut during Fed’s July interest rate decision had dampened the market risk, causing investors to seek shelter in safe-haven markets, prompting up demands for Japanese Yen and gold. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY was falling by 0.24% to 107.61.

As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked lower by 0.05% to $56.40 per barrel despite OPEC’s continuation of production cut plans. The oil market is still being pressured by ongoing concerns of further economy slowdown which will affect businesses and lowering demand for the oil. On the other hand, gold price retraced by 0.02% to $1,426.60 a troy ounce after rising more than $40 yesterday amid market risk.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                                                       Market                  Event

Early close 01:00 (4^th)        USD                                        Independence Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.35. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.80.

Resistance level: 96.35, 96.90

Support level: 95.80, 95.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2610. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2610.

Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2675

Support level: 1.2520, 1.2440

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1280. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1235

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 107.60. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 108.15, 108.70

Support level: 107.60, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7035

Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6675. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6600

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded flat in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3080. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3230

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2970

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9855. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9800.

Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9910

Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 57.95. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 55.75.

Resistance level: 57.95, 59.60

Support level: 55.75, 54.50

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1437.95.

Resistance level: 1437.95, 1475.50

Support level: 1421.40, 1403.15

3 July 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

Dovish central banks as trade war risk lingers.

Greenback retraced from its prior high levels as trade optimism fades while investors await the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report due this Friday. The dollar index was quoted down 0.11% to 96.26 as of writing. In a quiet economic calendar for the US, investors shifted their focus upon the US jobs report which may provide further signal with regards to Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. In the event of a disappointing reading, it will likely clarify the case for an interest rate cut during Fed’s policy meeting at the end of the month. Likewise, global central banks have dialed down their economic projections while delivering rate cuts in order to curb slowing global growth and trade war uncertainty. In a recent speech delivered by Bank of England governor Mark Carney, he backed away from his prior bullish stance while stating that global trade tension risks continues to surround the market. He added that uncertainty over global economic growth may warrant for a near-term policy response, thus increasing the speculation for a rate cut in order to support Britain’s economic expansion. Pair of GBP/USD slumped 0.02% to 1.2596 during Asian treading session.

As for commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.53% to $56.46 per barrel. Oil prices slumped more than 3% on yesterday over fears that a slower global economic growth may lead to a lower demand for crude oil in the near-term. Likewise, traders have fully digested the fact that OPEC will extend their production cut and thus initiating profit-taking from prior high levels. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.65% to $1,427.73 a troy ounce due to higher chances for a rate cut from the Fed later this month.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                                       Market                  Event

Early close 01:00 USD                                        Independence Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 96.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05

Support level: 95.80, 95.50

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2670

Support level: 1.2575, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.1275. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1345.

Resistance level: 1.1345, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 107.70. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 107.70.

Resistance level: 108.30, 108.50

Support level: 107.70, 107.30

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 0.7005, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6960, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6655. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6710.

Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.3120. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3050.

Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220

Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.9890. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.9835.

Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the lower level of the channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower, towards the direction of 55.70.

Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85

Support level: 55.70, 53.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended gains following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1448.00.

Resistance level: 1448.00, 1471.70

Support level: 1415.00, 1390.00

2 July 2019                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback remain stable, Aussie gains on rate cut.

Dollar index have slipped against its basket of six major currency pairs by 0.02% to 96.40 as of writing, however the momentum remain stable for the greenback as market continue to cheer on the positive truce between U.S and China. Despite weak manufacturing data was released by yesterday, market participant remain confident towards the greenback and both economic powerhouse could able to resolve the almost year-long trade dispute at the end. However, sentiment was kept in check by this month rate cut expectation where July rate cut was expected with the probability of 100%, according to the Fed Rate Monitor tool. Market will now anticipated for the upcoming release of employment data this week to gauge further momentum for the greenback. At the same time, AUD/USD holds steady and gains 0.22% to 0.6975 at the time of writing despite rate cut. According to RBA, interest rate have reduced to new record low of 1.00% as expected by the market. However, sentiment was mixed as RBA Governor Phillip Lowe stated that the cut was to “support employment growth” and was aimed to generate “greater confidence” in the Australia economy. Market participant will now shift their focus on the next data to determine further direction.

As for commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.34% to $59.23 per barrel as of writing as market continue to cheered on the OPEC extension on supply cut. According to reports on Monday, OPEC have on Monday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as the group’s members overcame their differences in order to prop up the price of crude following a weakening global economy and soaring U.S. production. On the other hand, gold price rebounds 0.39% to $1,390.00 a troy ounce at the time of writing as global uncertainty remain in grasp on risk appetite.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:05                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 96.35. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest index undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 95.50.

Resistance level: 96.35, 97.00

Support level: 95.50, 95.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.2655. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2610.

Resistance level: 1.2655, 1.2755

Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1305. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1240.

Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360

Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 108.20. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to retrace towards the support level 108.20 as a short-term technical correction.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15

Support level: 108.20, 107.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after successfully closing above the 20-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7055

Support level: 0.6970, 0.6930

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6675. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720

Support level: 0.6635, 0.6580

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the 20-MA line (green) and the support level 1.3110.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240

Support level: 1.3110, 1.3055

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9860. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940

Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 60.20. MACD which illustrate negative divergence suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 57.95.

Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80

Support level: 57.95, 55.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1386.35. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1406.50.

Resistance level: 1406.50, 1421.40

Support level: 1386.35, 1370.00

1 July 2019                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Investors risk appetite boost dollar, safe-haven falls.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was gaining by 0.42% to 96.02 during early European trading session following reports of resuming trade talks between US and China as well as agreement to put additional tariffs on halt. With trade talks resuming between the two economic powerhouse, market sentiment was lifted higher as investors sold off their safe-haven bets and enter into stronger dollar. With US Federal Reserve interest rate still high above 2%, diminishing risk in the market caused investors to invest in dollar instead of pound and euro market where uncertainties still haunt the market. For this week, investors will place their focus on the Nonfarm Payroll data to gauge US job conditions as well as the Average Hourly Earnings data to gauge consumer’s spending power and inflationary status of US. In other news, pair of AUD/USD fell by 0.38% to 0.6992 as of writing despite positive sentiment from trade talks. The Aussie dollar is expected to undergo larger fluctuations ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision and statement. RBA is widely expected to cut their cash rate as much as 25 basis point from 1.25% to 1.00% which will record a new historical low for their rate.

As for commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 2.93% to $59.87 per barrel following diminishing tensions from the trade war as well as agreement between OPEC and Russia to further production cut throughout the year 2019. Investors will focus on further production cut details which is expected to be discussed during the OPEC meeting on 1^st and 2^nd of July. On the other hand, gold price further its losses by 1.54% to $1,387.65 a troy ounce due to investors heightened risk appetite as they sell off their safe-haven assets and enter into stronger dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CAD                                        Canada Day

All Day                   HKD                                        SAR Region Establishment Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

15:00                     CNY                                        PBOC Gov Yi Speaks

Tentative                              CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 95.80. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.35.

Resistance level: 96.35, 96.90

Support level: 95.80, 95.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level 1.2675. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout below the support level or rebound from the support level before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2750, 1.2810

Support level: 1.2670, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1335. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1235

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 108.15. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 108.70

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15

Support level: 108.15, 107.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6965.

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7035

Support level: 0.6965, 0.6930

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6720. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6675.

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770

Support level: 0.6675, 0.6640

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3080. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3160.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3230

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2970

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9800. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9855.

Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9910

Support level: 0.9800, 0.9750

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 59.60. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.05.

Resistance level: 61.05, 62.90

Support level: 59.60, 57.95

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1386.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1403.15, 1421.40

Support level: 1386.35, 1370.00

2 July 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

Greenback rebounds, limited by rate cuts.

US dollar extended its gains on yesterday over the backdrop of bullish economic data from the region. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.71% to 96.32 against a basket of six major currencies. According to Institute for Supply Management, its Manufacturing PMI for the month of June inched up to 51.7, exceeding forecast of a slump to 51.0. The better-than-expected data has eased some concerns over imminent recession in the United States as recent data portrays slight diminishing economic momentum. Nonetheless, gains on the greenback remains limited as investors keep an eye over future economic data from the US such as ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls due later this week. Both data which provides more signals with regards to US employment market may catalyze higher market volatility as it may clarifies recent weakness in terms of jobs hiring. For the time being, Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that the possibility for a rate cut in July comes in at 100%. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD slumped 0.02% to 1.1285. Euro received bearish pressure after regional data from German such as Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Change missed economists’ forecast.

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.44% to $58.77 per barrel. Oil prices depreciates slightly after OPEC announced to extend its supply cuts until March 2020, an announcement which has been fully priced in by the market participants. Subsequently, gold price rose 0.22% to $1,387.35 a troy ounce as imminent rate cut in the US lifts up the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                     AUD                                       RBA Rate Statement

22:05                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis 

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 96.35. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up after closing above 96.35.

Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05

Support level: 95.80, 95.50

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.2630. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2630.

Resistance level: 1.2670, 1.2745

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2575

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.1275. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.1275.

Resistance level: 1.1345, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the support of 108.25. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in the mid-term, towards the direction of 108.70.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.20

Support level: 108.25, 107.70

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support of 0.6960. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6960.

Resistance level: 0.7005, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6960, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bearish signals suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6655.

Resistance level: 0.6710, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6655, 0.6590

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3050. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3220.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3120, 1.3050

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above 0.9890.

Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the channel.

Resistance level: 58.85, 59.60

Support level: 57.25, 55.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after closing below the support of 1390.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.

Resistance level: 1390.00, 1415.00

Support level: 1374.10, 1340.00

1 July 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

US-China resumes trade talks.

US dollar was traded higher during Asian trading session following diminishing trade war risks in between US and China. In a highly anticipated meeting in between US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping, both countries have agreed to resume trade talks after Washington pledge not to impose more tariffs upon Chinese goods while negotiation continues. In return, China has agreed to purchase more US farm goods. However, Trump stated that any current levies or tariffs upon China goods will remain in place but both leaders agreed not to intensify the current conflict. Trump also softened his stance towards Huawei, stating that “there is no great national security problem with it”. As such, Huawei will now resume any business dealing with US suppliers in terms of electronic equipment. For the time being, investors would continue to monitor trade talks in between both countries as they gauge the current risks levels in the market. As of writing, the dollar index notched up 0.18% to 96.45 during early Asian trading session.

As for commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 2.09% to $59.24 per barrel. Oil futures received higher demand after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to extend its current oil cut agreement till end of the year. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.95% to $1,396.15 a troy ounce due to diminishing risks in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CAD                                        Canada Day

All Day                   HKD                                        SAR Region Establishment Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

15:00                     CNY                                        PBOC Gov Yi Speaks

Tentative                              CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 95.80. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 96.35.

Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05

Support level: 95.80, 95.50

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term within the sideways channel.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2670, 1.2630

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.1380. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1.1345.

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1415

Support level: 1.1345, 1.1275

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior closure above 108.25. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 108.70.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.20

Support level: 108.25, 107.70

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.7040. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7110

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6960

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior close above 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6765.

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6655

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3220

Support level: 1.3050, 1.2970

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of narrowing triangle. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a breakout from the top level is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9835

Support level: 0.9770, 0.9730

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 59.60. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 59.60.

Resistance level: 59.60, 61.10

Support level: 58.85, 57.25

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 1390.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after closing below 1390.00.

Resistance level: 1415.00, 1448.00

Support level: 1390.00, 1374.10

28 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro flats, eyes on inflation data.

Euro was traded within a tight range for the past few days as market participants wait for further catalyst from the economic region. Sentiment upon the euro continues to remain weak as market participants speculate the European Central Bank to ease their monetary policy further if economic progression remains bearish. For the time being, traders will place their focus upon inflation data from EU that is bound to be released today in order to attain confirmation with regards to monetary policy easing sentiment. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.1370. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD notched down 0.04% to 1.2670 during Asian trading session. Pound sterling remains unchanged for the week due to ongoing uncertainty over the selection of next British Prime Minister as well as whether UK could avoid a no-deal, chaotic exit from the European Union.

As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.30% to $58.91 per barrel. Market participants begin to shift their portfolio from risky assets to safe-havens due to higher uncertainty with regards to the outcome of G20 summit, especially trade talk in between US and China. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.79% to $1,420.95 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat near the resistance level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 95.35.

Resistance level: 95.80, 96.35

Support level: 95.35, 94.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2675. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2750, 1.2810

Support level: 1.2670, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was remain traded flat in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1335, 1.1280

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 107.60. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 108.15, 108.70

Support level: 107.60, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7000. However, MACD which display lack of bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards back the current support level 0.7000.

Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065

Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded flat following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6680. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6680.

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770

Support level: 0.6680, 0.6640

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3080. However, MACD which display lack of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.3160.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3230

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2970

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9750. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9800, 0.9855

Support level: 0.9750, 0.9700

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat near the resistance level 59.60. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 57.95.

Resistance level: 59.60, 61.05

Support level: 57.95, 55.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1421.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95

Support level: 1406.50, 1386.35

28 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Market consolidates, all eyes on trade talks.

The FX market was traded flat ahead of this week G20 summit at Osaka, Japan where leaders from all around the world meets to discuss global economy issues. One of the major highlights is the resumption of trade negotiations between US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping where market participants remains doubtful of the outcome. According to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, trade deal was almost 90% completed and the trade talks is expected to make good progress. However, according to President Trump, he is expecting a better deal from China especially in regards to IP protection as well as opening China market for US investors. Trump threatened for substantial additional 10% – 25% tariffs on $300 billion Chinese goods if a deal cannot be met. As the trade war affects economies on a global scale, the mixed signals had cause investors to be cautious as they enter safe-haven assets while waiting for the results in trade talks. In terms of economic data, yesterday release of US GDP and Pending Home Sales provided little impact on to the market with both data meeting economists’ expectation at 3.1% and 1.1% respectively. As of writing, dollar index inched lower by 0.01% to 95.67 while pair of USD/JPY was lower by 0.07% to 107.70.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.30% to $59.43 per barrel. Recent sentiment for oil market remained bullish supported by a drop in crude inventories reported by both API and EIA. Oil traders will now focus on the outcome of trade talks as further escalating tensions will negatively affect the demand for oil. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.57% to $1,417.70 a troy ounce following market uncertainties which boosted the demand for safe-haven assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 95.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 95.85.

Resistance level: 95.85, 96.15
Support level: 95.45, 95.10

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 20-MA line (Red). MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 20 moving average line.

Resistance level: 1.2710, 1.2750
Support level: 1.2655, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1355. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1395.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1435
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1320

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the 20 Moving average line (Red). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 Moving average line.

Resistance level: 107.85, 108.20
Support level: 107.45, 106.80

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7000. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7025.

Resistance level: 0.7025, 0.7055
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6705. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6740
Support level: 0.6665, 0.6635

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3095. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout below the support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3165
Support level: 1.3095, 1.3050

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9755. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9855
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9705

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 59.70. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 58.25.

Resistance level: 59.70, 60.50
Support level: 58.25, 57.05

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1415.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to be traded higher after successfully close its candle above the resistance level at 1415.00

Resistance level: 1415.00, 1440.00
Support level: 1402.00, 1383.50

27 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Trade deal inches towards completion.

US dollar rebounds from its prior low level as US-China trade talk progresses positively while investors remained focus upon the upcoming G20 summit in Osaka for further market signals. The dollar index notched up 0.08% to 95.77 against a basket of six major currencies. On yesterday, greenback received higher demand from the market after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that the trade deal in between US and China is currently about 90% complete. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet at the G20 summit in Osaka tomorrow which may provide further signals with regards to current condition of trade talks. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD fell sharply on yesterday due to sharp appreciation in crude oil price. Oil futures received higher demand due to overall optimism towards the trade talks in between US and China. As of writing, pair of USD/CAD ticks up 0.03% to 1.3129 during Asian trading session.

As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.02% to $58.98 per barrel. Overall, investors will be remained fixated upon tomorrow’s G20 summit which may provide further signal with regards to US-China trade negotiations. Subsequently, gold price ticked down 0.07% to $1,408.16 a troy ounce due to a rebound in greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 95.65. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.05.

Resistance level: 96.05, 96.45

Support level: 95.65, 95.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 1.2670. However, MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 1.2670.

Resistance level: 1.2750, 1.2810

Support level: 1.2670, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1395. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1335, 1.1280

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 108.15. MACD which display bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 108.15, 108.70

Support level: 107.60, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.6965.

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000

Support level: 0.6930, 0.6900

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6680. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6640.

Resistance level: 0.6680, 0.6720

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6600

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3160. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be undergo a short term technical correction towards back the current resistance level 1.3160.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3230

Support level: 1.3080, 1.2970

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9800. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9800, 0.9855

Support level: 0.9750, 0.9700

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.60. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.95.

Resistance level: 59.60, 61.05

Support level: 57.95, 55.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1406.50. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95

Support level: 1406.50, 1386.35

27 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Mnuchin’s positive comment wake greenback up.

Dollar index which measure its value against a basket of six major currencies rose following US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave out optimistic comment on trade talk deal between US and China yesterday. The message of ‘we were about 90% complete on sealing trade deal with China’ was told by Mnuchin in a CNBC interview and eventually boosted up the dollar market sentiment as it lifted up the possibility of trade deal will be achieved in coming G20 Summit. Moreover, greenback received another wave of huge demand after upbeat economic data been announced from the region. According to Census Bureau, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders data showed a reading of 0.3%, exceeding the economist’s forecast of 0.1%. Despite growing risk in the economy, Us-made capital good order still increased solidly and indicating the US economy is remain resilient. As of now, investors are eye on GDP data later today to gauge the further direction of Greenback.As of writing, dollar index up 0.03% to 96.70. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD quoted up 0.07% to 1.2695 amid British government is drafting a plan to ensure that vital supplies can be brought into the country in the event of no deal Brexit. It dampened the market sentiment toward the risk of no deal Brexit may dragged the UK economy further down.

As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked up by 0.03% to $59.15 per barrel following a major drop in stockpile. According to the Energy Information Administration, oil stock fell by 12.788M, exceeding the economist’s forecast of fell by 2.540M. On the other hand, gold price inched down 0.03% to $1406.45 a troy ounce amid dollar’s strengthen.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest dollar to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 96.30, 97.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 1.2755, 1.2810
Support level: 1.2655, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1360. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1305

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 107.80. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 107.35.

Resistance level: 107.80, 108.20
Support level: 107.35, 106.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7000. Due to lack of momentum from the MACD, a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level 0.7000 is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.7000, 0.7055
Support level: 0.6970, 0.6930

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.6675. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6720.

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6635

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3110. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3160, 1.3240
Support level: 1.3110, 1.3055

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9750. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9805.

Resistance level: 0.9805, 0.9860
Support level: 0.9750, 0.9715

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 60.20. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.95.

Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 57.95, 55.85

GOLD_, H1: Gold was traded flat above the support level at 1406.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to be traded lower after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1440.00
Support level: 1406.50, 1386.35

26 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

RBNZ will cut rate in July?

New Zealand dollar was traded with high volatility following the release of interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As widely expected, RBNZ maintained their interest rate at a low level of 1.50% this morning. New Zealand dollar received initial bearish reaction after RBNZ quoted that weak global economic outlook and subdued domestic growth risk may require lower interest rates over time to achieve their designated target. However, the currency rebounds from its initial low level after RBNZ noted that New Zealand’s first quarter Gross Domestic Product remains resilient towards global economic uncertainty while exceeding prior projection figures. Likewise, the central bank also expects inflation to rise towards their 2% target while employment market is expected to remain near its maximum potential. All in all, the dovish comments from RBNZ were well in line with expectation. Currently, financial market has already priced in for a 25-basis point rate cut in July which has led to a sudden rebound after initial slump. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD rose 0.24% to 0.6654.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $58.67 per barrel. Oil price rose this morning after American Petroleum Institute reported that last week’s US crude inventories fell by -7.550 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.78% to $1,412.28 a troy ounce due to higher demand for risky assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:15                     GBP                         BoE Gov Carney Speaks
17:15                     GBP                         Inflation Report Hearings

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 95.65. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.05.

Resistance level: 96.05, 96.45

Support level: 95.65, 95.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the recent formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2750, 1.2810

Support level: 1.2680, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1395. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1335, 1.1280

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 107.05. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 107.60

Resistance level: 107.60, 108.15

Support level: 107.05, 106.50

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 0.6965. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.6930.

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000

Support level: 0.6930, 0.6900

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6640. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction back towards the support level 0.6640.

Resistance level: 0.6680, 0.6720

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6600

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded flat in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.3230.

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3290

Support level: 1.3160, 1.3080

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9750. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9800.

Resistance level: 0.9800, 0.9855

Support level: 0.9750, 0.9700

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 57.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.60.

Resistance level: 59.60, 61.05

Support level: 57.95, 55.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1406.50. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1421.40, 1437.95

Support level: 1406.50, 1386.35

26 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar saved by Powell comments. 

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded higher by 0.08% to 95.68 during early Asian trading session following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech at the Council on Foreign Relations. On Tuesday, dollar received further pressure from its downbeat CB Consumer Confidence data which slump to 121.5, missing its forecasted value of 131.1 while their New Home Sales falling to 626K, missing economists’ forecast of 680K. However, the downward pressure was lifted during Powell’s speech where he commented on Fed’s monetary policy outlook as well as replying the recent critic from US President Donald Trump regarding their interest rate. Powell stressed that the Fed will still remain as an independent entity from the government and warned that Fed had seen damage which arises in the long-run when policy changes are made for short-term political interests. Relating to their monetary policy review, Powell stated that they will continue to monitor upcoming economic outlook performance and will act accordingly to sustain the economy. In other news, reports from Bloomberg stated that the US is willing to delay the next round of tariffs on additional $300 billion Chinese goods while they are set to meet and resume trade negotiations during the G20 summit in Japan this week. Although it is still under consideration, the confirmation would most likely be announced after the G20 summit. The diminishing market risk had increase investors’ risk appetite, causing them to enter into dollar market as they sell safe-haven assets. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY was up by 0.18% to 107.35.

As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked up by 0.03% to $58.74 per barrel following a major slump in its inventories. According to the American Petroleum Institute, oil stock fell by 7.550M, recording a fall in stockpile for two consecutive weeks. On the other hand, gold price plunged by 0.58% to $1,414.93 a troy ounce amid heightened market risk appetite.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks
17:15                     GBP                                        Inflation Report Hearings

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 95.45. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 95.85.

Resistance level: 95.85, 96.15
Support level: 95.45, 95.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2695. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 1.2610.

Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2750
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1355. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level at 1.1355.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1435
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1320

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 106.75. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.45.

Resistance level: 107.45, 107.85
Support level: 106.65, 106.05

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6965. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout out above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.6995
Support level: 0.6935, 0.6910

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6640. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6600.

Resistance level: 0.6640, 0.6670
Support level: 0.6600, 0.6570

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded flat within tight range while currently testing 50 moving average (Blue) line. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the 50 moving average line.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3165, 1.3130

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9810
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9645

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while following prior breakout above the resistance level at 58.25. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 59.70.

Resistance level: 59.70, 60.50
Support level: 58.25, 57.05

GOLD_, H1: Gold was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1415.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1415.00.

Resistance level: 1440.00, 1458.40
Support level: 1415.00, 1400.00

21 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Safe-haven dominates market, trade talks resumed.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs continues to fall as investors flee into safe-haven markets following dovish Fed statement and geopolitical issues. Recently, Fed removed its ‘wait and see’ approach from its statement and hinting a rate cut during its July policy meeting. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump stated in his Twitter in regards to Iran’s attack on US spy drone that ‘Iran made a very big mistake’ and when questioned on whether US will strike back, Trump told reporters that they will soon find out. The heightened tensions between the two countries had spiraled uncertainties in the market, causing investors to seek protection in safe-haven assets. Right now, market participants are focusing on the G20 summit in Japan next week after China confirmed to meet with US counterparts to further trade talks. Recently, President Xi Jinping confirmed to resume negotiations with President Trump during the G20 meeting over a phone call, possibly to end a year-long trade war. Some argued that a deal will most likely be impossible, however some still sees hope that the two largest economy will meet a consensus to end the prolonged war which had since dampened global economy. For the moment, investors are placing their bets on safe-haven assets while waiting for further signal from the market. As of writing, dollar index was falling by 0.09% to 96.00 while pair of USD/JPY fell 0.21% to 107.06.

As for commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.30% to $56.96 per barrel after investors took profit from the oil price hike amid geopolitical tensions. However, sentiment remains cloudy while investors wait for further signal from the G20 summit where President Trump and Xi will meet to further trade talks. On the other hand, gold price skyrocketed by 1.17% to $1,404.50 a troy ounce due to investors’ risk aversion.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 96.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 96.15.

Resistance level: 96.15, 96.35
Support level: 95.85, 95.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2695. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.2695.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2795
Support level: 1.2695, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1280. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1245

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 107.45. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 106.80.

Resistance level: 107.45, 107.85
Support level: 106.80, 106.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6935. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6935.

Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6960
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6865

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level at 0.6600.

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6570, 0.6540

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3175. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3130

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9810. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9855.

Resistance level: 0.9855, 0.9895
Support level: 0.9810, 0.9755

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 57.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 58.25, 59.70
Support level: 57.05, 55.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1400.00. MACD which display bullish signal suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1415.00.

Resistance level: 1415.00, 1432.45
Support level: 1400.00, 1386.40

21 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback relinquished as data disappoints.

US dollar extended its losses on yesterday following bearish economic data from the region. According to Philadelphia Federal Reserve, its manufacturing PMI for the month of June tumbled down to 0.3, its largest contraction since last February. The data left investors anxious as past economic report from the US shows possible recessive risks ahead. However, the greenback managed to trim some of its losses after Initial Jobless Claims increased only by 216K, lesser than economist forecast of 220K. Overall, market sentiment towards the greenback remains on the downside following the conclusion of two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that although current economic condition does not warrant for a rate cut, any substantial downside risks upon inflation and employment market would eventually lead to adjustments in policy. On the other hand, pound sterling extended its gains following neutral statement delivered by Bank of England. As expected, the central bank left their interest rate unchanged while citing global trade risks which may affect Britain. However, they reiterate for gradual and limited pace of policy tightening if Brexit is being facilitated smoothly. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.50% to 96.09 while pair of GBP/USD rose 0.04% to 1.2704.

As for commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.44% to $57.14 per barrel. Oil prices jumped on yesterday after Iran shot down US spy drone. Heightened tension in between US and Iran may lead to further depreciation in oil supply if Washington decided to take further actions. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.05% to $1,389.12 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to advance further down, towards the direction of 95.75.

Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05

Support level: 95.75, 95.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2745.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1275. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1245

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower after closing below the support of 107.40. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 106.50.

Resistance level: 107.45, 108.80

Support level: 106.50, 104.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6930.

Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965

Support level: 0.6900, 0.6880

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6600.

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6660

Support level: 0.6555, 0.6485

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3120.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3120, 1.3040

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level of 0.9805. MACD which formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9805.

Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970

Support level: 0.9805, 0.9730

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior close above 57.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 59.25, 60.85

Support level: 57.30, 54.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior breakout from the resistance at 1374.10. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1415.00.

Resistance level: 1415.00, 1448.00

Support level: 1390.00, 1374.10

20 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Will Jerome Powell be replaced?

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies depreciates to two weeks low near 96.35 level following US President Donald Trump mentioned that he has the authority to replace Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and demote him to be a board governor if he wanted to do so. Federal Reserve has been pressured by Donald Trump to reduce its interest rate since last year October after its excessive rate hike decision and commented that the US central bank ‘had gone crazy’. Nonetheless, Jerome Powell has clearly stated in the recent FOMC statement that they will still leave the interest rate unchanged which against the favor of Trump. The uncertainty and slowing down economy outlook in US urged the investors to sell off their Greenback in bulk and shifted toward safe haven asset such as gold and Japanese Yen. During Asian trading session, Dollar index slumped 0.22% to 96.30. On the other hand, the pair of NZD/USD surged 0.55% to 0.6570 amid upbeat GDP data and dovish notes from Fed exerted bullish momentum toward Kiwi. According to Statistics New Zealand, GDP data came in at a rate similar to economist forecast of 0.6% while the goods producing industries has the strongest growth among the components. It indicates that New Zealand economy is still growing at a sustainable level.

As for commodities market, crude oil price inched up 0.54% to $54.45 per barrel amid US stockpile dropped and the optimism news regarding to OPEC has come to a consensus on meeting date lifted up the sentiment of oil market. Lastly, gold price skyrocketed 1.44% to $1379.80 amid appealing of safe haven’t asset.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:00                     GBP                                        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

04:00 (21^st)           GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.30. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60
Support level: 96.30, 95.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level of 1.2690. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2765
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2555

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.1240. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1305.

Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360
Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 107.40. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 107.40.

Resistance level: 107.85, 108.45
Support level: 107.40, 106.65

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6900. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6825

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.6580. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3240. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3305, 1.3370
Support level: 1.3240, 1.3175

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level of 0.9905. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9860.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9805

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 54.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace back towards the support level 52.65.

Resistance level: 54.60, 55.85
Support level: 52.65, 50.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1370.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1386.35.

Resistance level: 1386.35, 1400.00
Support level: 1370.00, 1355.00