300519 Morning Session Analysis
30 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar extended gains, trade war weighs on oil price.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies surged back to its 1-week high yesterday before retracing 0.04% to 97.95 following major sell-offs in the equity market as US treasury yield curve shows signs of inversion, indicating economy recession. Recent trade war tensions, Brexit uncertainties and global recession had caused investors to place their investment in stronger dollar and safe-haven assets, boosting dollar’s appeal as investors await further signals in the market. Besides that, increasing tensions between US-Sino trade war continue to weigh on oil prices while heightening expectations of lower oil demand in the market. The major fall in crude oil price also further pressured the Loonie, causing the pair of USD/CAD to hit its January high. Besides that, Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting that overall economy in the Canada is in line with the bank’s expectation. However, they will still focus on upcoming data to decide on future rate changes. The pair of USD/CAD inched lower by 0.04% to 1.3512 as of writing.
As for commodities market, crude oil price continues to falls by 0.22% to $58.89 per barrel after rebounding from its low-levels amid upbeat inventory data. According to the American Petroleum Institute, last week crude inventories fell unexpectedly by 5.27M barrel. Investors will now focus on EIA oil inventory report to further gauge oil’s movement. Besides, gold price quoted down by 0.08% to $1278.80 a troy ounce amid stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CHF Ascension Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 3.2% | 3.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 211K | 216K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 3.8% | 0.9% | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 4.740M | -0.857M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.25
Support level: 97.60, 97.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2610. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1125. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1210
Support level: 1.1125, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 109.55.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.20
Support level: 109.55, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat in the sideway channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the top level of channel at 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6960
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6505. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6550.
Resistance level: 0.6550, 0.6585
Support level: 0.6505, 0.6470
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3535. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3505.
Resistance level: 1.3535, 1.3565
Support level: 1.3505, 1.3475
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.0050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0100.
Resistance level: 1.0100, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0050, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.50
Support level: 58.25, 57.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses toward the support level at 1278.45.
Resistance level: 1288.50, 1294.05
Support level: 1278.45, 1272.45
290519 Afternoon Session Analysis
29 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
G20 will be the limelight of trade war.
Greenback received higher bidding as market participants digests US President Donald Trump’s comment with regards to trade with China. Prior, Trump who was speaking in a joint news conference in Tokyo with Japan PM Shinzo Abe said that US is not ready to forge a deal with China. He also added that prior tariff of 25% could be increased to the target of 35% substantially. Due to ongoing trade spat between both nations, market participants shift their portfolio into safe-haven assets which also includes US Treasuries. Overall, the upcoming G20 summit which will be held on 28th – 29th June in Osaka remains as the main limelight whereby US President Donald Trump may initiate talks with China President Xi Jinping. On the other hand, euro received substantial bearish pressure on yesterday due to rising political and economic risk in the region. EU leaders is set to begin the process of filling a number of top EU posts which may affect the future direction of the entire bloc. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.03% to 97.75 while pair of EUR/USD depreciates by 0.03% to 1.1166.
As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.95% to $58.41 per barrel. Oil price fell during mid Asian trading session as ongoing trade war between US and China may trigger global economic recession that could reduce oil demand in the future. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.02% to $1,279.69 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
22:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change | -12k | -8k | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 4.9% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 05:30
(30th) |
USD – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.400M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 97.70. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.70, 97.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2690. MACD, which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2615.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2550
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1175. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1145.
Resistance level: 1.1175, 1.1215
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 109.25. However, due to lack of momentum and direction from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 109.75 or below the support level 109.25 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 109.75, 110.00
Support level: 109.25, 109.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6930. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6545. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6545, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3475. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.3475.
Resistance level: 1.3520, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3475, 1.3415
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.0080. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0050.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0125
Support level: 1.0050, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance of 59.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 58.05.
Resistance level: 59.10, 60.10
Support level: 58.05, 56.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1279.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1287.50.
Resistance level: 1287.50, 1294.15
Support level: 1279.05, 1272.80
290519 Morning Session Analysis
29 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback skyrocketed following upbeat data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies continues to glow while edging higher by 0.03% to 97.80 following upbeat consumer confidence yesterday. According to Conference Board, US Consumer Confidence Index for May has further risen following an increase in April. The index now stands at 134.1, exceeding the economist forecast of 130.1 while showing that consumers are in greater optimism about the short term economic outlook and job opportunities in May. On the other hand, the pair of NZD/USD rose 0.15% to 0.6550 as RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr commented that they are “open-minded” about the commercial bank capital requirement ratio where it will be adjusted if they notice sufficient reason to change the parameter. Besides, Adrian Orr reiterated that upward adjustment will be executed if they detected the sign of major shock is close at hand.
As for commodities market, crude oil price quoted down 0.59% to $58.66 per barrel amid Nigeria’s government recent approval of a new crude oil export terminal in Niger Delta. Before this, Nigeria has announced that they are dusting off an ambitious plan to double its oil production by 2025 and resulted further deterioration in crude oil market sentiment. Besides, gold price quoted up 0.08% to $1280.45 a troy ounce amid markets shied away from riskier asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
22:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change | -12k | -8k | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 4.9% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
| 05:30
(30th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.400M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher after breaking above previous resistance level at 97.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace back towards the support level 97.60.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.25
Support level: 97.60, 97.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2690. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2615.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2785
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 1.1180. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1120.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1010
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 109.15. However, due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above resistance level 109.75 or below support level 109.15 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 109.70, 110.20
Support level: 109.15, 108.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat above the support level 0.6915. MACD which display diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6970, 0.7030
Support level: 0.6915, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6540. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the top-level of its sideway channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the top-level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3575
Support level: 1.3485, 1.3435
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 1.0070. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0020.
Resistance level: 1.0070, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0020, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 58.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 58.45, 56.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1278.90. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest gold to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1287.85, 1295.65
Support level: 1278.90, 1272.25
280519 Afternoon Session Analysis
28 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD suppressed by US-China trade war.
Australian dollar extended gains during Asian trading session while market participants await further market signals. Pair of AUD/USD tacks up 0.12% to 0.6925 as of writing. Earlier today, Australian dollar received some bidding in the FX market as Chinese iron ore prices hit a record high of CNY 774.5 per tonne. As iron ore makes up a bulk of Australia’s commodity exports, any movement in its prices would be reflected upon the Australian dollar. However, gains on the currency remains limited as political and trade tension arises in between US and China. Prior, US President Donald Trump’s statement shows lack of readiness to achieve a substantial trade deal with China, prompting higher short orders in the FX market. As China is one of Australia’s major trade partner, any developments in trade war will affect the currency as well. For the week ahead, investor’s will pay attention towards further market signal with regards to trade war as well as regional economic data to determine its near-term trend direction.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.17% to $58.98 per barrel. Oil futures begins to recoup some of its losses as supply cuts lead by OPEC and US sanction against Iran outweighs market concern over possible economic slowdown. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.13% to $1,283.35 a troy ounce due to a sharp rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 13:45 | CHF – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (May) | 129.2 | 130.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 97.40. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 97.70.
Resistance level: 97.70, 98.00
Support level: 97.40, 97.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2690. MACD, which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2615.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2550
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1175. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1145
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 109.75.
Resistance level: 109.75, 110.00
Support level: 109.25, 109.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6930. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6545. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the current support level 0.6545.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6545, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal and direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 1.3475 or below the support level 1.3415 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3475, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0050. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.0050.
Resistance level: 1.0050, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0005, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the resistance level 59.10. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 59.10, 60.10
Support level: 58.05, 56.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1287.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1279.05.
Resistance level: 1287.50, 1294.15
Support level: 1279.05, 1272.80
280519 Morning Session Analysis
28 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar higher during holiday, euro holds ground.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded higher by 0.14% to 97.56 as US stock market was closed prior to their Memorial Day. Dollar was recently pressured by poor housing data last week, causing the index to retrace from its 2-year high while investors await further economic data such as today’s CB Consumer Confidence to gauge the market. A further set of weak data may fuel uncertainties in the market that the Federal Reserve may consider to cut rate before the year end. In other news, the pair of EUR/USD inched lower by 0.03% to 1.1191, holding steadily after the results of EU elections showed pro-EU parties successfully holding on to two-thirds of the seats, eliminating fears of EU-skeptic takeover in the Eurozone. Besides that, EU trade ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss ways to avoid their automobile being tariffed by the US which would further dampen the euro sentiment.
As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked higher by 0.03% to $59.03 per barrel. Escalating tensions between US and Iran following Friday’s announcement from Washington stating that they are planning to deploy more troops to the Middle East had heightened prospect of supply disruptions, causing investors to buy oil. Besides, gold price fell by 0.11% to $1283.50 a troy ounce amid stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 13:45 | CHF – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (May) | 129.2 | 130.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level of 97.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 97.60.
Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00
Support level: 97.40, 97.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2695. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2630.
Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1210, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1125
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.55. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance of 109.55.
Resistance level: 109.55, 110.05
Support level: 109.25, 108.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6915. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 0.6915.
Resistance level: 0.6960, 0.6995
Support level: 0.6915, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6545. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6585.
Resistance level: 0.6585, 0.6630
Support level: 0.6545, 0.6505
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3450. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1.3415.
Resistance level: 1.3450, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3390
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0050. However, MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be trade higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.0050.
Resistance level: 1.0050, 1.0100
Support level: 1.0005, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the 20 Moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the 20 Moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.50
Support level: 58.25, 57.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1288.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest its prices to extend its losses toward the support level at 1278.45.
Resistance level: 1288.50, 1294.05
Support level: 1278.45, 1272.45
270519 Afternoon Session Analysis
27 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Euro rebounds as pro-EU triumphs.
Euro extended its gains during mid-Asian trading session after latest results shows that pro-EU parties are gaining a majority vote in the EU parliamentary elections. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.10% to 1.1214. According to the latest results, 2/3 of seats in the EU parliament elections were held by pro-European parties, diminishing the power of nationalist or anti-EU opponents. The results have eroded the motion for anti-immigration and anti-Brussels stance delivered during the National Rally by Marine Le Pen last week whom oppose an attempt to forge a closer EU integration. Due to this, market sentiment towards the EU zone was invigorated due to significant reduction in political and economic risks, thus increasing higher the demand for euro. On the other hand, the dollar index extended its losses by 0.06% to 97.37. Greenback receives bearish pressure amid worries that escalating tension between US and China may derail global economic growth. However, market momentum on Monday remains subdued as London and New York market will be closed for trading due to regional holiday.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged more than 1% to $58.27 per barrel. Oil futures were dumped since last week as concerns over global economic downturn rises due to ongoing trade clash between US and China. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.19% to $1,287.32 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Memorial Day
All Day GBP Spring Bank Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 97.40. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 97.70.
Resistance level: 97.70, 98.00
Support level: 97.40, 97.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2705. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1.2705.
Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2705, 1.2615
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1215. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 1.1175.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1145
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 109.25. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 109.70.
Resistance level: 109.70, 110.00
Support level: 109.25, 109.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6930. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6545. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.6545.
Resistance level: 0.6570, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6545, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3475.
Resistance level: 1.3475, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.0005. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.0050.
Resistance level: 1.0050, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0005, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 59.10. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 59.10.
Resistance level: 59.10, 60.10
Support level: 57.95, 56.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 1287.50. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1279.10.
Resistance level: 1287.50, 1294.15
Support level: 1279.10, 1272.80
270519 Morning Session Analysis
27 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback shrunk amid inferior data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies tumbled amid downbeat data which continues to deteriorate the market sentiment toward greenback. According to Census Bureau, US Core Durable Goods Orders came in at a reading of 0.0%, weaker than economists’ forecast of 0.2% and indicating that US economy is losing its upward momentum. The escalating trade war between two largest economy and weak data in US have heightened the market’s participant expectation of rate cut by Federal Reserve sooner or later. Dollar index edged down 0.04% to 97.35 during early Asian trading hours. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD surged 0.07% to 1.2720 following UK Prime Minister Theresa May announcement last Friday that she will be stepping down on 7th June. After 3 years of effort contributed by Theresa May in exiting the European Union, May ultimately failed to endure the pressure from the parliamentary members and eventually decided to step down. As of now, majority of the investor are focusing on UK leadership contest and a new leader is anticipated by the end of July.
As for commodities market, crude oil price quoted down 0.32% to $58.65 per barrel amid escalating trade tensions increased market’s worries about a possible oil slump. As of now, investors will be paying attention on trade war development while expecting a trade deal can be reached in consensus on June G20 Summit. Besides, gold price inched down 0.03% to $1284.50 a troy ounce amid heightening of investors’ risk appetite.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day USD Memorial Day
All Day GBP Spring Bank Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below from previous support level at 97.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest index to extend its losses towards the support level 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.60, 97.95
Support level: 97.00, 96.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.2690. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2785.
Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2615
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking above previous resistance level at 1.1180. Golden cross from both MA-line and bullish momentum from the MACD suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1240.
Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 109.15. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 109.70.
Resistance level: 109.70, 110.20
Support level: 109.15, 108.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the top-level of the sideway channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6970 after successfully closing above the sideway channel.
Resistance level: 0.6970, 0.7030
Support level: 0.6915, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level 0.6540. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace back towards the support level 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6510
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level at 1.3435. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.0020. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.0020, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9980, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 58.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 60.20, 61.80
Support level: 58.45, 56.75
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1287.85. Both MA-line which illustrate bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1287.85, 1295.65
Support level: 1278.90, 1272.25
240519 Afternoon Session Analysis
24 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Safe-haven dominates market, trade war in focus.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded flat at 97.68 after retracing from its 2-year high on yesterday amid poor business activity and downbeat housing data. However, poor sentiment towards riskier assets caused investors to flee into safe-haven Yen and gold market, causing a large demand for both assets amid yesterday’s woes. For the past few weeks, the FX market was heavily affected by mixed signals from US-China trade war where it escalated into additional tit-for-tat tariff between the two economic powerhouses, increasing uncertainties within the market while boosting dollar’s appeal. Moreover, with Brexit uncertainties weighing on Eurozone market and ongoing trade war tensions led investors into parking their investment into safe-haven market while they wait for further signal in the market. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY was quoted lower by 0.06% to 109.56.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.74% to $58.65 per barrel after plunging more than 6% yesterday, recording a largest fall in oil prices for the year of 2019. Oil market sentiment remained sour amid increasing oil inventories in the US reported by API and EIA. Besides that, fears of lower demand for the commodity amid trade war tensions and concerns of global economic recession further the bearish momentum for oil price. As for the gold market, the safe haven asset edged higher by 0.04% to $1283.65 per troy ounce amid market risk aversion.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.1% | -0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 01:00
(25th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 802 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 97.70. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.70, 97.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2615. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2705.
Resistance level: 1.2705, 1.2795
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2550
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1175. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the current support level 1.1175.
Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1175, 1.1145
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 109.55. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 109.90
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.55, 109.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6900. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6865.
Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6825
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6525. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6475.
Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6580
Support level: 0.6475, 0.6420
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently retest the resistance level 1.3475. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.3415.
Resistance level: 1.3475, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3415, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0050. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.0050.
Resistance level: 1.0050, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0005, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 58.10. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 60.10.
Resistance level: 60.10, 61.20
Support level: 58.10, 56.95
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1279.10.
Resistance level: 1289.40, 1294.15
Support level: 1279.10, 1272.80
240519 Morning Session Analysis
24 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback nosedived after T-bill collapse.
Greenback nosedived during Thursday’s American trading session following concerns over global economic downturn spurred by the ongoing US-China trade tensions. Bearish sentiment within the market was further exacerbated following lower-than-expected preliminary estimates from Markit which shows sharp depreciation in business activity for both EU and US. In the US front, both Manufacturing and Services component shows slight contraction with actual reading of 50.6 and 50.9 versus prior of 52.6 and 53.0 respectively. In addition, housing market in the US portrays similar notion after New Home Sales for the month of April came in at only 673K, missing economist forecast for 675K. A few sets of bearish economic data from the US spur higher risk aversion among market participants, evoking a large drop in 10-year US Treasury bond yield which recorded a loss of more than 4%. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD reverses its losses after touching two-years low of 1.1105 on yesterday. Traders begin to initiate a buyback on the single common currency following large depreciation of the greenback. However, gains on euro remains limited as its economic fundamentals remains bleak for the time being. As of writing, the dollar index fell 0.19% to 97.67 while EUR/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.1183.
As for commodities market, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.10% to $57.98 per barrel. Price of oil futures plunged sharply on yesterday as bearish economic data spur higher concern over global recession which may lead to lower demand for this commodity in the future. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.05% to $1,284.05 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.1% | -0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 01:00
(25th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 802 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 97.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below 97.65.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.60
Support level: 97.65, 97.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.2630. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1125
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior closure below 109.80. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 109.40.
Resistance level: 109.80, 110.10
Support level: 109.40, 109.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 0.6915, 0.6955
Support level: 0.6885, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of the channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6570
Support level: 0.6500, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3490. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3490, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.0020. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0090, 1.0200
Support level: 1.0020, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after successful breakout from the bottom level.
Resistance level: 60.85, 63.45
Support level: 57.30, 54.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains after closing above the target near 1285.80.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1280.00, 1275.30
230519 Afternoon Session Analysis
23 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Canadian dollar fell despite strong retail sales.
The Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar despite better than expected retail sales data that was released on Wednesday. According to Statistics Canada, its Retail Sales for the month of March came in at an impressive reading of 1.7%, beating market expectation with a reading of only 0.9%. However, bullish momentum upon the Canadian dollar was short-lived as market sentiment remains sour due to depreciating crude oil price following a surprise increase in US inventories level. As Canada is one of the major oil producers in the world, depreciation of its price will bring significant impact upon their currency. For the time being, investors will shift their focus towards future economic news and data from the region to determine the market direction for the pair of USD/CAD. As of writing, USD/CAD rose 0.14% to 1.3445 while the dollar index extended gains by 0.10% to 97.95.
In the commodities market, crude oil price sank 0.42% to $60.92 per barrel amid a large buildup in crude stockpiles and dire economic concerns. According to Energy Information Association, crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million to 476.8 million, hitting their highest levels since July 2017 following weak demand for the commodity. Besides the weak demand, the increase in stockpiles also weighted by planned sales of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) into the commercial market. Thus, the surging stockpiles have dragged the sentiment down while investors ponder for more signals with regards to trade war to gain further insights. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.05% to $1273.05 a troy ounce as the safe-haven commodity remains pressured by resilient dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 44.4 | 44.8 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.2 | 99.2 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 212K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Apr) | 692K | 675K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 97.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest index to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.25
Support level: 97.60, 97.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2690. MACD which display diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2615.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2785
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1180. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1120.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1010
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 110.20. However, MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be trade lower towards the support level 110.20.
Resistance level: 110.55, 110.95
Support level: 110.20, 109.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat below the 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of momentum and signal from the MACD, a breakout below the support level 0.6860 or resistance level 0.6915 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6915, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6820
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6505. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6435.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6545
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6395
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel after breaking above previous resistance level at 1.3435. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the top-level of the channel at 1.3485.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0085. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0130, 1.0190
Support level: 1.0085, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 61.80. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 60.15.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.15
Support level: 60.15, 58.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1275.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1266.35.
Resistance level: 1275.40, 1282.30
Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25
230519 Morning Session Analysis
23 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Brexit going nowhere?
Pound sterling extended its selloff on Wednesday following renewed political chaos within the UK government that surrounds Prime Minister Theresa May. Prior, May proposed a revised version of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to the Parliament which includes an option to call for a second referendum. Some members from her own Conservative and Opposition party revolts over the new version, placing pressure upon her to resign as soon as possible. In addition, a senior cabinet minister resigns from the government on yesterday, citing May’s failure to bring out a substantial Brexit agreement which will take Britain out of the European Union efficiently. On the other hand, greenback extended its gains for third consecutive day as market participants digests a rather neutral stance portrayed by Federal Reserve in the latest meeting minutes. Several Fed officials backs Jerome Powell’s view that recent dip in inflation is likely to be transitory and they should adopt a rather “patient” approach to their policy. The minutes reinforced prior message from Powell whereby the current interest rate level is appropriate for the time being and there is no strong reason for any changes to be made. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD slumped 0.03% to 1.2664 while the dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 97.90.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.08% to $61.23 per barrel. Yesterday, oil prices nosedived more than 3% after EIA crude oil inventories showed a surprise build for last week at around 5 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat at around $1,274.03 a troy ounce as market sentiment remains mixed for the time being.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 44.4 | 44.8 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.2 | 99.2 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 212K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Apr) | 692K | 675K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend further up after closing above 97.95.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.60
Support level: 97.65, 97.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2700. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.2630.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1150. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1150.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1150, 1.1100
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY extended its losses after breaking the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 110.10, 109.80
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.6885. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6830.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6830, 0.6840
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the bottom level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6420
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1.1370. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3435.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3400, 1.3370
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.0080. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after closing above 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.0110, 1.0155
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0055
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support of 61.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 62.50, 63.70
Support level: 61.00, 59.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1275.30. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1269.10.
Resistance level: 1275.30, 1280.00
Support level: 1269.10, 1253.30
220519 Afternoon Session Analysis
22 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Pound pressured amid Brexit woes.
Pound sterling suffered from large fluctuations in the market amid Brexit headlines while pair of GBP/USD skyrocketed by more than 1000 basis point before plunging back to its low levels yesterday. According to recent reports, UK Prime Minister Theresa May had confirmed that the government will allow MPs to vote for a second referendum and shall honor any final outcome. Prior to the second referendum vote will be the 4th Brexit vote which will be held on the week of 3rd June. Recently, PM May highlighted that the Brexit deal is to have independent trade policy as well as almost frictionless trade at UK-EU border while urging MPs to back her deal and emphasize that Brexit will not be possible without cross-party support. However, market participants argued that May’s new Brexit draft brought no significant changes as compared to the previous draft, thus heightening expectations for another fail vote, especially after comments from Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn stating that they will not support May’s Brexit plan. While waiting for further Brexit updates, investors will place their focus on UK CPI data due later today. As of writing, index dollar ticked down by 0.02% to 97.84 while pair of GBP/USD edged higher by 0.07% to 1.2713.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.64% to $62.55 per barrel amid increasing crude stock. According to American Petroleum Institute, US crude inventories rose by 2.4M barrels, missing economists’ expectations to fall by 0.6M. Besides that, oil market was also pressured by Saudi Arabia pledge to keep global oil market balanced. On the other hand, gold price ticked lower 0.08% to $1,273.55 a troy ounce following investors’ heightened risk appetite.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
02:00 (23rd) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 1.9% | 2.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.6% | 0.9% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.431M | -0.599M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the high level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 97.60
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.60, 97.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2695. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.2795.
Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2695, 1.2620
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1175. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1145.
Resistance level: 1.1175, 1.1215
Support level: 1.1145, 1.1115
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.50
Support level: 110.35, 109.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent rebound near the support level 0.6860. Due to lack of momentum and signal from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 0.6910 or below the support level 0.6860 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6910, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6825
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6515. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6460.
Resistance level: 0.6515, 0.6580
Support level: 0.6460, 0.6420
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3415. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3380.
Resistance level: 1.3415, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3380, 1.3345
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0125.
Resistance level: 1.0125, 1.0160
Support level: 1.0045, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 62.80. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 61.20.
Resistance level: 62.80, 63.80
Support level: 61.20, 60.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1269.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level 1274.25.
Resistance level: 1274.25, 1279.10
Support level: 1269.40, 1262.75
220519 Morning Session Analysis
22 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback retraces as housing data disappoints.
US dollar retraced slightly from its prior high levels following the release of bearish housing data from yesterday. As of writing, the dollar index slipped 0.07% to 97.81 during early Asian trading session. According to US National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales for the month of April came in at only 5.19 million units, missing economist forecast for a total of 5.35 million units. The data has undergone depreciation in sales unit for its 14th consecutive months as high prices and tight supply at the lower end of the market continues to sideline potential buyers. However, losses on the greenback were limited after Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren reiterates that the current policy setting is accommodative and consistent with inflation which may return to the target of 2%. In addition, Rosengren noted current forecasts sees the economy to grow above its potential and current low inflation may be temporary. His comments have dialed down some market concern over the possibility of a rate cut from the Fed by end of this year.
In the commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.02% to $62.81 per barrel. Oil futures continues to trade within a tight range while market participants await further signals from the market such as tonight’s EIA Crude Oil Inventories and comments from members of OPEC. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,274.62 a troy ounce as market participants shifted their portfolio towards riskier assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
02:00 (23rd) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 1.9% | 2.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 0.6% | 0.9% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.431M | -0.599M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 97.95. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.60
Support level: 97.65, 97.30
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1.2700. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.2700.
Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2700, 1.2630
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.1155. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1100
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 110.55. MACD which begins to illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 110.10, 109.80
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.6885. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6840
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 0.6500.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6570
Support level: 0.6500, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after a breakout occur at the bottom.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3400, 1.3370
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0110, 1.0155
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0055
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 63.70. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to extend further down after breaking the strong support near 62.50.
Resistance level: 63.70, 64.70
Support level: 62.50, 61.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend further up after closing above the resistance of 1275.30.
Resistance level: 1275.30, 1280.00
Support level: 1269.10, 1253.30
210519 Afternoon Session Analysis
21 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar remains strong as US lift ban temporary.
Dollar index remains steady against its basket of six major currency pairs after U.S lifted the ban on China’s tech company Huawei for temporary. Recently, U.S President Donald Trump have signed an executive order that restrict U.S companies from having any business ties with China tech giant Huawei. The move have further escalated the tension between both economic powerhouse U.S and China. However, the Department of Commerce have now lifted the ban temporarily and provide Huawei a temporary license to maintain its current products. As relations between China and U.S have further worsen, market remains optimistic on U.S economy where recent data indicates the economic health in U.S remain robust. Dollar index rose 0.06% to 97.80 as of writing. On the other hand, AUD/USD plummets 0.35% to 0.6878 at the time of writing following dovish signal from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to meeting minutes by RBA, members in the RBA have discussed the possibility of rate cut due to an uptick in unemployment rate. Besides that, RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe also said on Tuesday that the central bank will consider the case for lower interest rates during its June policy meeting. The dovish sentiment has cemented further expectation of first rate cut to a record low of 1.50%, thus causing investors to flee from the Aussie.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.06% to $63.42 per barrel as of writing as escalating tension between U.S and Iran continue to drive the commodity. According to recent reports, U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened Iran with “great force” if it attacked U.S. interests in the Middle East. The rising tension in the Middle East have continue to support the demand for the oil where market continue to expect a tighter market. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.15% to $1275.73 a troy ounce at the time of writing as the safe-haven asset remain pressured by strong dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May) | -5 | -5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Apr) | 5.21M | 5.35M | – |
| 05:30
(22nd) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 8.600M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 97.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 98.25.
Resistance level: 98.25, 98.60
Support level: 97.60, 97.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from top levels. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.2785.
Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.2865
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2615
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level at 1.1150.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1150, 1.1120
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 110.20. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.
Resistance level: 110.20, 110.55
Support level: 109.70, 109.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6915. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6855.
Resistance level: 0.6915, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6855, 0.6820
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6510. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6645
Support level: 0.6515, 0.6460
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel after breaking below the previous support level 1.3435. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the bottom-level of the channel at 1.3380.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3485
Support level: 1.3380, 1.3305
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.0085. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.0130.
Resistance level: 1.0130, 1.0190
Support level: 1.0085, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 63.15. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.65.
Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00
Support level: 63.15, 61.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1275.40. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1287.85.
Resistance level: 1287.85, 1295.65
Support level: 1275.40, 1266.35
210519 Morning Session Analysis
21 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar flats while trade war brews.
Greenback was traded flat on Monday following heightening trade tension in between US and China. In an unprecedented move, tech giants such as Google, Intel and Qualcomm have announced to halt any business relation with Huawei by cutting off supply of semiconductors, chips and services. The announcement has raised more uncertainty over how trade negotiation in between US and China will pan out in the future. The move was announced after Trump administration blacklisted Huawei last week over national security concern as Huawei was accused to have close ties with the Chinese government. As of writing, the dollar index slumped 0.07% to 97.73 during Asian trading session. Similarly, pair of GBP/USD was traded flat at around 1.2725 as market participants await more signals with regards to Brexit. Earlier today, UK finance minister Philip Hammond warned that providing support for a “No deal Brexit” will inflict significant damage to UK’s economy and their living standard as no preparation could avoid its consequences.
As for commodities, crude oil price rebounds by 0.14% to $63.23 per barrel. Oil futures received some bullish support after Venezuela crude production slumped further from 1.2 million barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day, its lowest since January 2003. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat around $1,277.74 a troy ounce as market participants await further signals from the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative GBP Inflation Report Hearings
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May) | -5 | -5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Apr) | 5.21M | 5.35M | – |
| 05:30
(22nd) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 8.600M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 97.65.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.60
Support level: 97.65, 97.30
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support of 1.2700. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2900
Support level: 1.2700, 1.2630
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded flat following prior retracement from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1100
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of the upward channel. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.55
Support level: 109.80, 109.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.6915.
Resistance level: 0.6955, 0.7020
Support level: 0.6915, 0.6860
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing near the resistance at 0.6540. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target of 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6570
Support level: 0.6515, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded within a sideways channel while recently closed below 1.3435. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3400.
Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3400, 1.3370
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.0080. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0095.
Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0110
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0055
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the its prices to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 63.70, 64.70
Support level: 62.50, 61.00
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded flat after breaking out from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses after breaking the strong support near 1275.30.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00