250219 Weekly Analysis
25 February 2019 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: February 25 – March 1
Market Review (Forex): February 18 – February 22
US Dollar
US dollar extend its losses against a basket of major currencies while closing last week’s market at the price of 96.35.
Last week, the greenback slips against its major rivals following dovish comments from Federal Reserve vice chairman, Randal Quarles. At the Chicago Booth U.S Monetary Policy Forum that happen in New York, Fed vice chairman Randal Quarles stated plans for balance sheet to be used as a tool to combat potential headwinds in the labor market or pace of inflation. Besides that, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams also delivered a dovish note last week, stated that correlation, known as Phillips Curve between employment and inflation is “alive and kicking” and warned Fed to be vigilant and careful about declining inflation expectations.
Moreover, trade talk between US and China remains uncertain as US President Donald Trump has open to extend the deadline of March 1 for increasing tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% as long as both parties made progress in negotiations.
In conclusion, dollar sentiment remains pressured by dovish expectations while market remains vigilant and cautious on the trade developments which currently lack of clarity in key issues such as intellectual property and tech transfers and also inflation data such fourth-quarter GDP which set to be released on Thursday this week which was already delayed by the 35-day partial government shutdown.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY was traded flat throughout the week while closing the market at the price of 110.63 last Friday session. With global uncertainty continues to haunt the market, the safe-haven yen manage to hold its ground last week despite manufacturing data numbers in Japan continues to struggle. Market is currently in focused on trade developments where an agreement between two economic powerhouses could increase investor’s risk appetite and weight on the safe-haven Yen.
EUR/USD
Last week, EUR/USD remains steady while ending the Friday market at 1.1331 as lack of fresh catalyst from EU and external factors continue to dominate trader’s attention. However recent reports shows that EU may also be dragged into its own trade war between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Junker over US agricultural industry and also EU automobile imports/exports which could threaten a potential chasm in two-sided trade.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling gains against the dollar while closing last Friday’s market at 1.3055 following positive developments. According to recent news, the extension of the Brexit official deadline is high likely to be inevitable as UK Prime Minister Theresa May planning to extend Article 50 and delay vote on her fresh Brexit plan by two weeks to March 12. Besides that, various media reports stated that few EU officials are ready to give as much as 21 months of extension to the formal date of March 29 when it comes to the UK’s departure from the EU, which adding further positive sentiment for the sterling.
Market Review (Commodities): February 18 – February 22
GOLD
Gold price records huge losses last week, closing the market with the price of 1327.43 last Friday session. Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset have diminished as increasing optimism between US – China trade war have increased investor’s risk appetite and viewed as a great opportunity to sell after a strong gains for gold. As trade talk remains in progress, market awaits further confirmation to weigh on the yellow metal as China is also one of the active purchasers for the yellow commodities.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price registered gains and pressed higher while closing last Friday market with the price of $57.15 per barrel following investors celebrated trade talk optimism between US – China during last week where US President Donald Trump met with China’s top trade representative, Vice Premiere Liu He. Besides that, ongoing evidence of declines in world-wide oil output such as Baker Hughes weekly rig-count data edge back by 4 to 853, increasing further positive momentum for the commodity.
As U.S and China remains the world’s two largest oil consuming nations, investors continue to focus on the progress where a trade agreement between both parties may provide positive outlook for the demand of crude oil.
Weekly Outlook: February 25 – March 1
For the week ahead, investor’s will remain in focus on US-China trade developments and various economic data such as Durable Goods Orders and Building Permits to gauge market sentiment and outlook. Besides that, investors also putting their attention on speeches from FED members that could provide hidden hints for future rate hike plans.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: February 25 – March 1
| Monday, February 25 |
Data CHF – Employment Level (Q4)
Events GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
| Tuesday, February 26 |
Data USD – Building Permits (Dec) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Events GBP – Inflation Report Hearings GBP – U.K. Prime Minister May Speaks USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
|
| Wednesday, February 27 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock NZD – Trade Balance USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
|
| Thursday, February 28 |
Data JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) CHF – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) USD – Chicago PMI (Feb)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, March 1
|
Data EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb)
Events N/A
|
250219 Afternoon Session Analysis
25 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Substantial progress in US-Sino trade talk.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six currencies tumbled after Donald Trump announced to delay the March 1 tariff deadline following substantial progress talk between two countries during last weekend. After a long week of trade focused meeting, US president Donald Trump tweeted that US had undergo a well talk with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues. At the moment, Donald Trump is planning a Summit to meet China Premier Xi Jinping to conclude an agreement. Closer to a trade deal between both parties dampening investors fear over the outlook of global economic growth. Dollar index inched down 0.07% to 96.30 during early Asian trading session. On the other hand, the pair of NZD/USD edged up 0.42% to 0.6875 amid upbeat Core Retail Sales data been announced before Asian trading session. According to Statistics New Zealand, the data came in at 1.7% compared to economist forecast of 0.5% where pharmaceuticals, duty free goods and food services taken the biggest pie on boosting overall spending in December 2018.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.30% to $57.05 per barrel amid oil prices received support from optimism trade talk between two world’s largest economy countries where US President has decided to extend the US tariff deadline on China imported goods. Besides, gold price quoted up 0.20% to $1330.50 amid weaker demand of Dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.40, 96.80
Support level: 96.00, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3070. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.3070.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2895
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the higher level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1370, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1325, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the channel bottom level.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.05
Support level: 110.60, 110.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7105. MACD which has begun to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7160.
Resistance level: 0.7160, 0.7210
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7075
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance at 0.6845. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6885.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6845, 0.6815
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently retesting the resistance level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1.3090.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9995. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9995, 1.0025
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9900
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 57.75. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses toward the support level at 56.60.
Resistance level: 57.75, 58.85
Support level: 56.60, 55.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1322.65. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1337.20.
Resistance level: 1337.20, 1344.75
Support level: 1322.65, 1314.05
250219 Morning Session Analysis
25 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback topple as doves’ flutters.
US dollar slipped down during late Friday trading session following dovish comments delivered by Federal Reserve policymaker. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.12% to 96.35. According to Fed vice Chair Randal Quarles, he commented that if their plans for a balance sheet normalization contradicts with their prior objective, they may reassess their approach towards the normalization in the future. Balance sheet normalization was used to combat potential slowdown in the labor market or a slack in inflationary pressure. Such comments indicate that the central bank may prepare to halt their balance sheet unwinding program later this year and yet another gesture for a potential halt in their monetary policy tightening. On the other hand, pound sterling rose 0.05% to 1.3059 against the US dollar during Asian trading session. Currently, PM Theresa May is seeking to make changes upon the Irish backstop, a move which may increase the chances for passing through Brexit deal within the UK Parliament.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.26% to $56.89 per barrel. Oil prices received some support since last Friday after US Baker Hughes reported its first decline in 3 weeks over US oil rigs by 4 to 853. Likewise, further progressiveness on trade talks between the US and China has also increased the optimism in the financial market towards global economic outlook and crude demands. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,327.86 a troy ounce following diminishing chances for a rate hike in the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the support level near 96.25. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after successfully closing below this level.
Resistance level: 96.60, 96.80
Support level: 96.25, 96.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. However, due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3125
Support level: 1.3025, 1.2990
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1375
Support level: 1.1330, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.7070. MACD which has begun to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance at 0.6855. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6890.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6855, 0.6830
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of descending wedge. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3070
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of the descending triangle. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.9995.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0080
Support level: 0.9995, 0.9970
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to extend its gains after closing above 57.45.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55
Support level: 56.45, 55.60
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1333.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1329.00, 1333.00
Support level: 1323.00, 1315.00
220219 Afternoon Session Analysis
22 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback fixates upon US-China trade talk.
US dollar held onto its gains against other major currencies following a rise in US Treasury yields. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.02% to 96.43 during mid-Asian trading session. In the meantime, investors remained fixated upon US-China trade talks as both countries haggled over the details which is aimed at ending their trade war. Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday that both sides began to sketch out an agreement over structural issues while drafting six memorandums of understanding (MoU) over proposed Chinese reforms. However, gains on the US dollar remains limited following soft US economic data from yesterday. Thursday’s economic data shows unexpected fall in core capital goods orders and weak existing home sales which reaffirmed expectations that Federal Reserve may halt their monetary policy tightening for this year. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.13% to 1.3032. Pound sterling received large selloff after UK government delayed an announcement on no-deal Brexit tariffs, further heightening the uncertainty of UK’s economy after Brexit.
In the commodities market, crude oil was traded flat around $56.85 per barrel. Oil price extended its losses since yesterday after US crude output reportedly hits a record high of 12 million barrels per day. The rise in US production would undermine efforts from OPEC which has reduced their daily production in order to tighten global crude supplies. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.05% to $1,324.84 a troy ounce following strong US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
00.00 (23rd) USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.00 | 99.1 | – |
| 18.00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 21.30 | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.6% | -0.5% | – |
| 02.00
(23rd) |
CrudeOIl – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 857 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 96.80.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.05
Support level: 96.40, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3070. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2895
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1350. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level 1.1300.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the channel bottom level at 110.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the channel top level at 110.90.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.05
Support level: 110.60, 110.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7105. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7075.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7075, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6765. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6765.
Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6765, 0.6735
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3200. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3265.
Resistance level: 1.3265, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3145
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior recent rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0090
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 57.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 56.55.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.85
Support level: 56.55, 55.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1323.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level 1323.15.
Resistance level: 1337.20, 1344.75
Support level: 1323.15, 1303.35
220219 Morning Session Analysis
22 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Trade talk resumed, dollar remains steady despite weak data.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pair remain steady on 96.00 level as trade talk have resumed between US and China. Despite the downbeat economic data released by US yesterday, dollar was able to shrug off the negative data while investors are eyeing on the progress of trade talk where both countries are trashing out structural agreements and trying to hash out a deal that could end the trade war. As the deadline for additional tariff on Chinese goods are due in a week, failure to reach an agreement will majorly benefit the US market with the additional tariff imposed, however the impact will disrupt global trade and the economy in the long-run. Dollar index was up by 0.14% to 96.45 as of writing. In other news, pair of AUD/USD edged higher by 0.18% to 0.7105 after plunging to a week’s low due to concerns of China’s ban on Australian coal imports. Being one of China’s major trading partner, the ban on Australian coal will drastically affect’s Australian economy. However, the single currency was able to recover part of its losses supported by upbeat central bank comments and strong job data. Focus will now be placed on the outcome of trade war where a deal will boost Asian market’s sentiment.
In the commodities market, crude oil price edged higher by 0.12% to $56.90 per barrel as of writing. The commodity was suffering retracement from its’ high levels following downbeat Crude Oil Inventories data. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude production had increased up to 12 million bpd while weekly inventories increased to 3.672M, missing economist’s expectation of 3.080M. However, sentiment still remained strong for crude market following OPEC’s effort on production cut. Gold prices on the other hand was gaining by 0.18% to $1325.70 after retracing from its top-levels yesterday due to strengthened dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
00.00 (23rd) USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.00 | 99.1 | – |
| 18.00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 21.30 | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.6% | -0.5% | – |
| 02.00
(23rd) |
CrudeOIl – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 857 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 96.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after It breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 96.45, 96.90
Support level: 96.05, 95.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3080. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3205
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2845
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 1.1340. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower when it breaks back below the support level 1.1340.
Resistance level: 1.1390, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 111.35, 112.20
Support level: 110.60, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7085. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7160
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7055
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.6800.MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6845.
Resistance level: 0.6845,0.6875
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3200. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3260.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded flat following prior recent rebound from its low level. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0085
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 57.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 55.75.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1329.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1315.00.
Resistance level: 1329.15, 1340.55
Support level: 1315.00, 1302.90
210219 Afternoon Session Analysis
21 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar mixed as trade talk deadline approaches.
US dollar was traded mixed during mid-Asian trading session while market participants continues to monitor ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. According to sources, both US and China have started to outline their commitments with regards to trade dispute, setting in the most significant progress which may put the seven-month trade war to an end soon. Negotiators are currently drawing up six memorandums of understanding (MoU) over structural issues which includes non-tariff barriers to trade and intellectual property rights. However, one source cautioned that the talks may still end up in failure as they nearing March 1st deadline. Nonetheless, signage of MoU between both countries is a significant step forward in holding up to specific commitments on key issues. On the other hand, pound sterling struggles to initiate any significant recovery following heightened political and Brexit risk in the region. According to reports, three Conservative Party MPs has resigned and will join the Independent group. Such news has further dialed down optimism towards the passage of PM Theresa May’s Brexit agreement which is currently under re-negotiation with the European Union. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.07% to 96.30 while pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.03% to 1.3045.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.52% to $57.35 per barrel. Market sentiment towards the commodity remains positive over the backdrop of OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanction against Venezuela and Iran. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.10% to $1,339.69 a troy ounce. Gold price hovers near multi-months high despite dollar’s rebound due to diminished expectations towards Federal Reserve with regards to interest rate hike for 2019.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
01:35 (22nd) CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 50.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 51.0 | 51.1 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) | -0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 239K | 220K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 17.0 | 15.6 | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 54.4 | 55.1 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jan) | 4.99M | 5.01M | – |
| 00:00 (22nd) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.633M | 3.080M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses towards the support level at 96.10.
Resistance level: 96.40, 97.00
Support level: 96.10, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3070. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2875
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1350. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the support level at 1.1300.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was lower following prior retracement near the sideway top level at 110.90. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.05
Support level: 110.60, 110.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7145. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.7200.
Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6845. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6845.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6845, 0.6815
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 1.3195.
Resistance level: 1.3195, 1.3265
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3090
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 0.9990. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0090
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 56.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 57.75.
Resistance level: 57.75, 59.25
Support level: 56.55, 55.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1344.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1337.20.
Resistance level: 1344.75, 1355.40
Support level: 1337.20, 1323.15
210219 Morning Session Analysis
21 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls amid dovish Fed, bolstered by Brexit turmoil.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs plunged near to its 96.00 level following the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes for January which carried a more dovish tone. In the minutes, Fed will use a more patient approach to its interest rates while policymakers expressed their willingness to end the balance sheet unwinding program later this year and keeping rate hikes on hold to further gauge the economy outlook for US. However, dollar’s fall was bolstered by political turmoil in the UK as three lawmakers defected from Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party. As May is set to renew talks with the EU this week to tackle the Irish backstop issue, lack of faith towards May caused three lawmakers to quit their position thus pressuring the currency. Investors now fear that if May is unable to obtain a better deal with the EU, UK will be forced to crash out of EU without a deal, possibly leading the economy into a recession stance. As of writing, dollar index was down by 0.01% to 96.35 while pair of GBP/USD was 0.03% to 1.3040
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.82% to $57.20 per barrel after reaching a new high in 2019. The fall on prices was caused by increasing inventories in the US as reported by American Petroleum Institute. However, current sentiment for oil market remained bullish as tensions from the trade war are slowly lifted from the market while investors expect both US and China to reach an agreement. On the other hand, OPEC’s production cut and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela oil continues to support oil prices. Gold prices on the other hand was gaining by 0.15% to $1340.45, supported by political turmoil in UK and dovish statement from the FOMC.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 50.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 51.0 | 51.1 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) | -0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 239K | 220K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 17.0 | 15.6 | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 54.4 | 55.1 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jan) | 4.99M | 5.01M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 96.45.
Resistance level: 96.45, 96.90
Support level: 96.05, 95.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3080. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3205
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2845
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1340. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower when it breaks back below the support level 1.1340.
Resistance level: 1.1390, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.65.
Resistance level: 111.40, 112.20
Support level: 110.65, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7160. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its bearish momentum after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7160, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6875. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6845.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6845, 0.6800
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 0.9985. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0085
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 57.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 55.75
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1340.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its bearish momentum after it breaks below the support level 1340.50.
Resistance level: 1353.10, 1364.95
Support level: 1340.50, 1329.15
200219 Afternoon Session Analysis
20 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback slacks ahead of Fed minutes.
Greenback droops against others major peers on Wednesday following diminishing US treasury yields prior to the release of Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.04% to 96.29. Treasury yields was being weighed down by pessimistic sentiment in the financial market as traders are currently pricing in a potential dovishness from the Federal Reserve. However, losses on the greenback were limited as investors ebb on optimism that a fresh round of trade talks between US and China may yield to a resolution in their trade conflict. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY extended gains by 0.20% to 110.83 during mid-Asian trading session. Japanese yen received fresh rounds of selloff after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the central bank is ready to ramp up stimulus if sharp yen appreciation hurts the economy. Further loosening of monetary policy in the region may shore up higher supply of Japanese yen and thus artificially suppressing its value in return.
In terms of commodities, crude oil price skyrocketed by 1.29% to $56.75 per barrel. Oil price remains in a bullish traction following higher optimism which surrounds US-China trade talks and sanction against oil producing nation – Venezuela. Likewise, gold price appreciates by 0.17% to 10-months high of $1,343.88 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (21st) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.4% | -0.2% | – |
| 05:30 (21st) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -0.998M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the sideway bottom level at 96.45. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.45, 97.00
Support level: 96.00, 95.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.3085. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term, toward the support level at 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2895
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 1.1340. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1390.
Resistance level: 1.1390, 1.1435
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 110.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 111.05.
Resistance level: 111.05, 111.35
Support level: 110.60, 110.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.7155.
Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6885. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6850.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6850, 0.6820
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3195. MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level to 1.3145.
Resistance level: 1.3195, 1.3225
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3090
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the sideway channel bottom level at 1.0025. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9990.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0090
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 56.55. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term toward a lower level.
Resistance level: 56.55, 57.75
Support level: 55.50, 54.30
GOLD, H1: Gold was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1341.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully break out the support level at 1341.80.
Resistance level: 1347.50, 1355.40
Support level: 1341.80, 1334.85
200219 Morning Session Analysis
20 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls ahead of Meeting Minutes, sterling gains.
Greenback measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs plunged by 0.39% to 96.30 ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes. Dollar index was seen falling following optimism from trade talks as US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with China is going well and that he is willing to extend the 1st March deadline in order to achieve a deal. As the global trade tensions are lifted from the market, riskier market sentiment was boosted as investors flee from safe-have dollar into risky markets such as pound and euro. Investors will now focus on the Meeting Minutes later today following the recent dovish statement from the central bank in January. In other news, pair of GBP/USD was traded flat at 1.3060 after surging to a 2-weeks high, supported by low unemployment rate and hopes that Prime Minister Theresa May will make progress in renegotiations on her Brexit deal with the EU. Besides that, trade talk optimism boosted investors risk appetite as they enter the pound market.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.21% to $56.25 per barrel while holding its grounds near high levels, supported by OPEC’s production cut as well as sanctions on Iran and Venezuela exports on oil. However, the commodity was being pressured by growing production from US which the Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday are expected to keep rising. Likewise, gold price ticked higher by 0.01% to $1341.00 per troy ounce while furthering its upward momentum amid weakened dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.4% | -0.2% | – |
| 05:30 (21st) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -0.998M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 96.45. MACD which indicate persistent bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.05.
Resistance level: 96.45, 96.90
Support level: 96.05, 95.55
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2960. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3205
Support level: 1.2960, 1.2845
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1340. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1390, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing resistance level 110.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 110.65, 111.40
Support level: 110.00, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its bearish momentum after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7190, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6875.MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6845, 0.6800
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently retest the support level 1.3205. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0025. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9985.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0085
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat after it breaks above the resistance level 55.75. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 55.75.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1340.50. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it break above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1340.50, 1353.10
Support level: 1329.15, 1315.00
190219 Afternoon Session Analysis
19 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Euro dips as reality bites.
Euro failed to extend its gains against the US dollar on Tuesday while market focus drifted back to the economic progression and central bank’s policy in EU zone. Prior, euro received higher demand in the FX market after investors’ sentiment turned positive following easing trade conflict between US and China while US dollar experienced short-term technical correction. Nevertheless, bullish momentum on the euro remains limited as recent economic data from the region portrays possible economic slowdown which may derail European Central Bank’s (ECB) possibility to tighten monetary policy by autumn this year. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon ECB’s monetary policy meeting which is scheduled on 7th March 2019. However, economists are expecting policymakers to slash future growth and inflation projection as EU zone suffers its largest slowdown in half a decade. On the other hand, US dollar remains steady against other major currencies while albeit lacking a strong directional momentum as US market were shut for holiday since yesterday. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD was down 0.08% to 1.1299 while the dollar index ticked up 0.01% to 96.67.
As for commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.38% to $55.73 per barrel. Oil prices depreciates slightly during mid-Asian session while financial market await trade talks outcome between US and China. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.09% to $1,325.12 a troy ounce following a rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) | 3.4% | 3.5% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jan) | 20.8K | 12.3K | – |
| 18:00 | EUR -German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) | -15.0 | -14.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.75. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 96.75.
Resistance level: 96.75, 97.00
Support level: 96.65, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.2930. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1.2855.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.2990
Support level: 1.2855, 1.2800
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.1300. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1250.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1330
Support level: 1.1250, 1.1220
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from a lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 0.7170. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6830. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses following successful closure below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6855, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6830, 0.6800
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 1.0040. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.0080.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0000
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 56.45. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45
Support level: 55.60, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1329.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1329.00, 1340.00
Support level: 1315.00, 1303.00
190219 Morning Session Analysis
19 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained pressured by trade talk optimism.
The dollar index which is measured against a basket of six major currency pairs fell 0.13% to 96.55 during early Asian trading session as new round of trade talk takes place this week. During last week round of trade talk at Beijing, both US and China reported a progress in reaching a deal while investors are expecting a positive outcome before 1st March deadline for additional tariffs are implemented. Last year December, both countries came to a 90-days peace treaty where additional tariff up to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods are put on hold while both sides try to reach a trade agreement that satisfy both parties. In other news, pair of AUD/USD edged lower by 0.11% to 0.7130 ahead of RBA meeting minutes. The Australian dollar remained pressured last week but managed to climbed higher on Friday as trade talk worries was lifted from the market. Being one of China’s major trading partner, a trade agreement will exert positive momentum for the Australian dollar.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.36% to $56.15 per barrel while remaining steady at high levels. Recent sentiment for oil market turned bullish as OPEC’s glut cut and US sanctions on Venezuela oil started to take effect onto oil prices. Investors are now awaiting trade negotiations outcome to further gauge the oil market’s momentum. Likewise, gold price ticked lower by 0.06% to $1325.15 per troy ounce after hitting 2019 high as investors shifted out from the dollar market into strong safe-haven gold while investors wait for the outcome of trade talks.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual | |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) | 3.4% | 3.5% | – | |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jan) | 20.8K | 12.3K | – | |
| 18:00 | EUR -German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) | -15.0 | -14.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 96.90.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.15
Support level: 96.45, 96.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2960. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2845.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2720
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1300. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 110.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after It successfully breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 110.65, 111.40
Support level: 110.00, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 0.7130. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7085.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7055
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6845. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6870, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6845, 0.6800
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3260.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.0025. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0085.
Resistance level: 1.0085, 1.0115
Support level: 1.0025, 0.9985
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat after it breaks above the resistance level 55.75. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 55.75.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 1323.15. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1323.15.
Resistance level: 1329.15, 1340.55
Support level: 1323.15, 1315.50
180219 Afternoon Session Analysis
18 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback eases, trade war to end soon?
Greenback was marginally lower during mid-Asian trading session following higher optimism towards the resolution of trade war between US and China. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.17% to 96.74. Both US and China have reported significant progress over five days of negotiation which have encouraged investors to shift away from safe-haven currencies into riskier assets. Negotiation will continue to next week in Washington while investors hope for an end to the trade war between two of the world largest economies. Following broad weakness experienced by the greenback, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.22% to 1.1317. However, gains on the currency remains limited as market participants expects European Central Bank (ECB) to keep their monetary policy accommodative due to diminishing economic momentum. Last Friday, ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure commented that a new round of cheap multi-year loans to bank may be possible as recent slowdown is more pronounced than previously expected.
In terms of commodity market, crude oil price ticks up 0.02% to $55.77 per barrel. Oil prices rose to its highest level since November last year following positive signs in the US-China trade talks which help to boost risk-asset demand in the financial market. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.23% to $1,324.47 a troy ounce following broad weakness on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Family Day
All Day USD Washington’s Birthday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 96.90. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses following a breakout at the support level of 96.50.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.15
Support level: 96.50, 96.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2845. MACD which illustrate bullish bias with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2720
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1310. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1405
Support level: 1.1310, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat after it breaks below the previous support level 110.65 recently. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks back above the resistance level at 110.65.
Resistance level: 110.65, 111.40
Support level: 110.00, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate bullish bias with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains following a breakout at the resistance level 0.7155.
Resistance level: 0.7155, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7130, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6905. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6905.
Resistance level: 0.6905, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6870, 0.6845
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3260. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0025. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level at 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0085, 1.0115
Support level: 1.0025, 0.9985
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 55.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 57.50.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1323.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1323.10, 1329.10
Support level: 1315.50, 1309.70
180219 Morning Session Analysis
18 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls from high, risky assets gains.
Greenback measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was falling by 0.06% to 96.60 amid investors’ optimism towards the trade war negotiations held in Beijing last week. Although the White House reported that much progress are still needed for changes in the Chinese trade behavior, investors hope remained high that both economy powerhouses will reach a trade deal that would benefit both countries and put an end to the trade war. The risk aversion led investors to sell safe-haven dollar and enter into riskier markets such as pound and kiwi. Focus will be placed on next week’s trade talks in Washington while market participants hope for an agreement to end the trade war before the 1st March deadline for further tariffs. In other news, pair of GBP/USD gained 0.15% to 1.2905, supported by higher than expected Retail Sales data last Friday and the sell-off for dollar. Amid Brexit political turmoil, UK was still able to maintain a high consumer spending and healthy inflation level. Prime Minister Theresa May will struggle to persuade the EU to agree with changes over the Irish backstop plan this week as the deadline marches closer.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded higher by 0.39% to $56.35 per barrel due to changes in sentiment for the oil market. OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report indicated a fall in total production last month by 800K bpd to a low of 30.8 million bpd. As OPEC’s production cut effect starts to take place, the oil market was further supported by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil. Likewise, gold price increased by 0.14% to $1323.00 per troy ounce amid weakened dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Family Day
All Day USD Washington’s Birthday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 96.90. MACD which iluustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.50.
Resistance level: 96.90, 97.15
Support level: 96.50, 96.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2845. MACD which illustrate bullish bias with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2720
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1310. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair to extend its rebound after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.1350
Support level: 1.1260, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat after it breaks below the previous support level 110.65 recently. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks back above the previous support level.
Resistance level: 110.65, 111.40
Support level: 110.00, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate bearish bias with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7155.
Resistance level: 0.7155, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7130, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6905. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6905.
Resistance level: 0.6905, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6870, 0.6845
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3260. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.0085. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0085, 1.0115
Support level: 1.0025, 0.9985
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 55.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 57.50.
Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20
Support level: 55.75, 54.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1323.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1323.10, 1329.10
Support level: 1315.50, 1309.70
150219 Afternoon Session Analysis
15 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Is trade war coming to an end?
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies edged up during Asian trading session while market sentiment are still undecided ahead of the outcome of trade talk. Two negotiators from White House administration will have a meeting with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping later today, yet there is no deal on March 1 deadline extension been made between both countries as of now, said by White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow. At the meantime, the news of US tariff on $200 billion China imported goods will be increased to 25% from 10% if both parties does not reach a deal at the end of the trade talk has further generated bullish momentum toward the Greenback, where US people will prone to buy local goods rather than imported goods. Prior to the European trading session, Dollar index quoted up 0.09% to 96.85. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD dipped 0.14% to 1.2785 after UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffers another defeat on her Brexit negotiating strategy yesterday. At the moment, adversary leader Jeremy Corbyn urged Theresa May to come out with a new plan parliament support, which rule out the possibility of no deal Brexit.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extends its appreciation of 0.40% to $54.65 per barrel amid US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran and supply cuts lead by OPEC and some blocs. Besides, gold price inched down 0.03% to $1312.15 a troy ounce amid Dollar demand heightened.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.9% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | -1.0% | -0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 3.90 | 7.10 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 91.2 | 93.3 | – |
| 02:00 (16th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 854 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggests the index to be traded lower to the support level at 96.65.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.65, 96.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2845. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2740.
Resistance level: 1.2845, 1.2960
Support level: 1.2740, 1.2620
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1300. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 1.1260.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1260, 1.1210
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 110.65. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 110.05.
Resistance level: 110.65, 111.05
Support level: 110.05, 109.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7060.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7060, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6820. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after the candle successfully close below the support level at 0.6820.
Resistance level: 0.6845, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6795
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 1.3285. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3360.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3415
Support level: 1.3285, 1.3195
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.0045. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0090.
Resistance level: 1.0090, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0045, 0.9990
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior close above the resistance at 54.30. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its prices to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 54.30.
Resistance level: 55.50, 56.40
Support level: 54.30, 53.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the triangle’s top level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction toward the bottom level at 1307.25.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1321.55
Support level: 1307.25, 1302.50
150219 Morning Session Analysis
15 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback fumbled, sterling tumbled.
Greenback was traded within a tight range on Thursday as bearish economic data downplayed bullish take on the currency. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.02% to 96.80 during Asian trading session. According to US Commerce Department, retail sales for the month of December fell by -1.2%, its largest shrinkage since 2009. However, most economist postulate that the bearish performance may be temporary as resilient labor market will lend support to consumer spending in the coming months. Likewise, the data has further cemented Federal Reserve’s cautious stance while they monitor future economic releases from the United States. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.10% to 1.2799, its lowest level in a month. On yesterday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered another defeat in the parliament after British lawmakers rejected her request to reaffirm support on changing Brexit deal. Her latest rout has increased the chances for a no-deal Brexit option while Theresa May is expected to face another vote at the end of the month if she is able to score changes to Irish backstop deals.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.09% to $54.47 per barrel. Bull traders continue to steer the commodity’s price following higher optimism upon Saudi’s production cuts and US-China trade talks. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.04% to $1,311.75 a troy ounce while risk-off sentiment in the market subsides.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.9% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | -1.0% | -0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 3.90 | 7.10 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 91.2 | 93.3 | – |
| 02:00 (16th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 854 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.30
Support level: 96.65, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2800. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.2700.
Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2855
Support level: 1.2700, 1.2610
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1300. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, in tandem with the current bearish trend.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1330
Support level: 1.1250, 1.1220
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level of 110.50. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target at 110.50.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful close below 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 0.6855. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6800.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6855
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1.0080. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0000
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior close above the resistance at 54.40. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains after breaking the strong resistance at 55.20.
Resistance level: 55.20, 56.30
Support level: 54.40, 53.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price continues to trade within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1329.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85