140219 Afternoon Session Analysis
14 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Trade woes lifted, AUD gains.
Greenback was traded lower by 0.07% to 96.85 against a basket of six major currency pairs during late Asian trading session amid hopes on trade talk optimists. As two of the largest economy set off for new round of trade talks earlier this week, US President Donald Trump commented that the negotiations are ‘going along very well’ and that China was offering ‘tremendous respect’. Although Trump will only meet Chinese President Xi Jinping to agree on a final deal, he is now considering to delay the deadline for imposition of higher tariffs on China goods for as long as 60 days. Investors hope on both parties to reach an agreement and end the trade war recovered as an extension to the deadline provides higher chances of obtaining a deal. Market participants reacted by shifting their investment to riskier assets as overall market sentiment restored. Besides that, early China trade data gave a higher than expected reading, pushing China Yuan higher as well as China’s major trading partner, Australian dollar. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose by 0.40% to 0.7115.
As for commodities, crude oil price surged by 0.43% to $54.15 per barrel amid trade talk optimisms. Despite the poor inventories data reported by the EIA yesterday, investors attention was caught by the high-level trade talks between US and China which commented by President Trump as ‘going very well’. On the other hand, gold price ticks up by 0.19% to $1,308.50 a troy ounce due to weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 96.85. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest index to undergo technical correction and rebound from the support level towards the resistance level at 97.15.
Resistance level: 97.15, 97.45
Support level: 96.85, 96.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2850. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.3000
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2750
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.1275. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.1310, 1.1350
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was extending its bullish momentum following prior breakout from the previous resistance level 110.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace back to the support level 110.90.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7100. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7030
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6850.
Resistance level: 0.6850, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6715
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3245. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3185.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0080. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0130, 1.0180
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0030
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level at 53.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 53.90.
Resistance level: 55.00, 56.15
Support level: 53.90, 52.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower levels. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout from the sideway channel is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1325.15
Support level: 1305.00, 1295.00
140219 Morning Session Analysis
14 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback thrives as inflation firms.
US dollar rose sharply on Wednesday over the backdrop of optimistic inflation data from the region. The dollar index was quoted up 0.51%, last seen around 96.93 against a basket of six major peers. According to the US Labor Department, its Consumer Price Index came in flat for the month of January with only 0.2%. However, Core CPI rose 2.2% for year-over-year comparison, beating economists’ forecast for a reading of only 2.1%. Although the report portrays mixed signals, its underlying inflationary pressure is well supported by the acceleration of prices in medical care services and shelter categories. As such, continuous appreciation and pickup in inflation for the upcoming months may revive Federal Reserve’s initiation to raise interest rates sooner again. Otherwise, pair of EUR/USD tumbled 0.05% to 1.1258, its lowest level in three months. The single common currency received large selloff after EU zone Industrial Production data missed economists’ forecast, fueling more concern of an accelerated slowdown in the region.
As for commodities, crude oil price extended gains by 0.03% to $53.87 per barrel. Oil prices rose after US President Donald Trump commented that trade talks between Washington and Beijing is doing “very well”, dialing down market concerns over possible economic slowdown due to trade wars. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.09% to $1,307.40 a troy ounce due persistent risks in EU and UK.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Jan) | 57.06B | 33.90B | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index extended gains while currently testing near the resistance of 97.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up after a successful closure above 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.30
Support level: 96.65, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the bottom level.
Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2930
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2670
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior close below the support at 1.1300. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1220.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1375
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1185
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 111.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6830.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6855
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6770
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3220. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0130, 1.0170
Support level: 1.0080, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 54.40. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1309.00, 1315.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85
130219 Afternoon Session Analysis
13 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar froze while trade talk ongoing.
Dollar index which gauge its value against six major peers’ currencies traded steady near 96.45 while market participants keep their eyes on trade talk between US and China. Most are expecting for a possible breakthrough in trade impasses soon. Besides, US President Donald Trump has taken a step back in trade dispute by offering short extension on March 1st deadline of trade agreement with China. However, if there is no deal been reached in ongoing trade talk between both countries, tariff on $200 billion of import goods will expected to rise from 10 percent to 25 percent which will definitely disrupted China’s economy tremendously. On the other hand, pair of NZD/USD skyrocketed 1.43% to 0.6830 after Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sent out a more hawkish tone on current economy growth outlook while maintaining its official cash rates at 1.75% unchanged. While global tensions is still entangled the whole world, however RBNZ policymakers emphasized that low interest rate is expected to be able to support a pick-up in New Zealand’s GDP growth over 2019 and rise in CPI is being anticipated.
In the commodities market, crude oil price surged 0.49% to $53.50 per barrel amid API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data showed a small draw of 0.9998 million barrels of oil inventory for the week ending 8th February. Large gap between the forecasted inventories changes (2.514 million) and the actual reading exerted tremendous buy in pressure on this particular commodity. Moreover, gold price surged edged up 0.11% to $1312.00 a troy ounce amid weaker market demand on dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
03:10 (14th) NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 2.1% | 1.9% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.7% | -0.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 1.263M | 2.668M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 96.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the resistance level at 96.35.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.00
Support level: 96.35, 96.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2845. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2715
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1300. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the resistance level at 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1405
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the top level of channel at 110.05. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 110.90.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.40
Support level: 110.50, 109.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7075. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7210
Support level: 0.7075, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6820. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6870.
Resistance level: 0.6870, 0.6920
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6795
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3205. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the support level at 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3125
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 1.0080. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0110
Support level: 1.0025, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 53.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further upwards after successfully breaking the resistance of 53.50.
Resistance level: 53.50, 54.30
Support level: 52.75, 51.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher in the sideway channel following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (blue). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the top level of channel at 1315.00.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1321.55
Support level: 1307.25, 1302.50
130219 Morning Session Analysis
13 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback retraces as its peer shines.
US dollar retraced from its previous high on Tuesday following a rebound in other major currencies such as Pound Sterling and Canadian dollar. In UK, sterling received larger buyback after British Prime Minister Theresa May asked lawmakers for more time to reach an agreement with the European Union on amending the Irish backstop issue. With only less than six weeks until UK leaves EU on 29th March, Theresa May received criticism in an attempt to pressure pro-Brexit lawmakers in supporting her withdrawal deal by reducing the amount of time for debate. On the other hand, Canadian dollar received higher demand in the FX market following a sharp rebound in oil prices. As Canadian economy largely depends on crude oil exports, any significant movement on the commodity’s price would affect their currency. Nevertheless, losses on the greenback were limited after JOLTs Job Openings came in higher than expected with 7.335 million versus 6.900 million, indicating higher supply of jobs in a robust hiring condition. As of writing: dollar index was down 0.35% to 96.47; GBP/USD rose 0.04% to 1.2896; USD/CAD depreciates by 0.05% to 1.3234.
As for commodities, crude oil price appreciates by 0.09% to $53.30 per barrel. Oil prices rebound sharply after Saudi Arabia announced to cut more supply than previously announced in December. Likewise, gold prices extended gains by 0.05% to $1,311.49 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
03:10 (14th) NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 2.1% | 1.9% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.7% | -0.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 1.263M | 2.668M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.00
Support level: 96.30, 96.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2855. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.2990
Support level: 1.2855, 1.2800
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1270. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1415
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1270
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace while currently testing at 110.50. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 1.0080. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0000
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended gains following prior closure above 52.80. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further upwards after successfully breaking the resistance of 53.70.
Resistance level: 53.70, 54.40
Support level: 52.80, 51.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 1315.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1329.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85
120219 Afternoon Session Analysis
12 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Trade woes weigh on market, dollar gains.
Greenback further its gains for the 8th consecutive sessions while currently traded flat against a basket of six major currency pairs at 96.82 as trade tensions continues to worsen market sentiment. As Washington is set off to a new round of trade talks with Beijing counterparts this week, investors expect US to continue exerting pressure on China for a better reform to protect its companies’ intellectual property. The fear and uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the trade talks made dollar the ‘big shot’ as investors shifted their portfolios from riskier market to safe-have dollar. As trade talk tensions weigh heavily onto the Asian market, the Australian dollar fell to its 5-weeks low following poor Home Loans data which came in at -6.1%, missing economists’ expectations of -2.0%. The single currency underwent large sell-off throughout the week as investors fear that the trade disputes between US and China will affect China’s major trading partner, Australia. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD ticks up by 0.10% to 0.7070.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.50% to $52.70 per barrel amid OPEC glut cut and US sanctions against Iranian oil. However, fears on US-Sino trade tensions and oversupply in the US continues to weigh on the oil market. Investors are currently focusing on OPEC monthly report in hope that the report might include further supply cut decisions that might push the oil prices higher this year. Likewise, gold price edges higher by 0.04% to $1,308.50 a troy ounce while remained pressured by dollar gains.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
21:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
01:45 (13th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 23:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) | 6.888M | 6.900M | – |
| 05:30
(13th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.514M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 96.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 96.50.
Resistance level: 96.85, 97.15
Support level: 96.50, 96.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.2850. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 1.2850.
Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.3000
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2750
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.1275. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.1310.
Resistance level: 1.1310, 1.1350
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 110.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.00, 109.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from low-levels. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7100.
Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7030, 0.6955
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6715. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the support level 0.6715 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6675
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3325. MACD which illustrate bias bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3245.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.0030. MACD which display bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0080.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0030, 0.9995
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 52.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 52.70, 53.90
Support level: 51.60, 50.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1315.00. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1305.00.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1325.00
Support level: 1305.00, 1295.00
120219 Morning Session Analysis
12 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling tumbles as economy crumbles.
US dollar extended its gains to two-months high against other major peers amid broad selloff on the pound sterling. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.42% to 96.80 while pairing of GBP/USD was down by 0.44% to 1.2858. According to Office for National Statistics, UK’s Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter grew at a slower pace with only 0.2%, missing economist forecast for a reading of up to 0.3%. The data has propelled market anxiousness towards UK’s economy as they are bound to embrace recessive risks after Brexit. For the time being, investors will keep an eye upon UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s statement to members of the parliament which has been rescheduled to Tuesday (initially Wednesday) for further signal with regards to Brexit negotiations. On the other hand, US dollar remained well supported as US-China trade talks shows little signs of progress. A failure to attain consensus between both countries would be deemed as beneficial for the US economy.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.10% to $52.31 per barrel. Oil prices remained under bearish pressure as traders embraced for an increase in supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for crude futures as inventories levels hover at its yearly highs. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.03% to $1,308.03 a troy ounce following stronger US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
21:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
01:45 (13th) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 23:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) | 6.888M | 6.900M | – |
| 05:30
(13th) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.514M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior close above 96.65. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.65
Support level: 96.65, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.2855. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 1.2855.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.2990
Support level: 1.2855, 1.2800
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.1270. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1270, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 110.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 110.50.
Resistance level: 110.50, 111.00
Support level: 110.00, 109.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.7015.
Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7015, 0.6915
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance at 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance near 1.0040. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction at 1.0080.
Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0040, 1.0000
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 51.15. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 52.80, 53.70
Support level: 51.85, 51.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1303.00.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1329.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85
110219 Afternoon Session Analysis
11th February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Will US Government shutdown again?
Dollar index which gauge against six major peers of currencies stumbled near 96.35 after hitting nine weeks high. Investors are currently keeping their eyes on the next step that US president Donald Trump will make after US shutdown talks stall ahead of deadline. According to BBC News, representatives of US House of Congress offer a deal that compiled of wall funding costs between $1.3 bn and $2 bn, a long way off from what the president has been demanding, approximately $5.7bn. As of now, if the talks ultimately broke down, Donald Trump would either choose to shut down the government again or to officially declare United States enter into national emergency and therefore he will have the privilege to use military power and fund to build the Mexico border wall. Dollar index dipped 0.01% to $96.65 during Asian trading session. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD inched down 0.03% to 1.1320 amid European market is still surrounded by sour sentiment after European government debt yields fell to two years low. Besides, bearish momentum in European market has also been triggered by the factors of global trade tensions and domestic challenges, eventually exerted negative pressure which further dragged down the value of Euro.
In the commodities market, crude oil price declined 1.10% to $52.10 per barrel after U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data has showed that oil drilling activity in US is expanding, which may lead to supply glut unsolved. Moreover, gold price was down 0.10% to $1312.80 a troy ounce amid market appetite toward the safe haven assets had been shifted away.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY National Founding Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.6% | 0.3% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) | -0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Dec) | -2.06B | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 96.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.40, 96.65
Support level: 96.00, 95.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2960. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2845.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2715
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following a breakout below the previous support level at 1.1365. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1365, 1.1455
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1225
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the sideway channel bottom level at 109.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the top level at 110.05.
Resistance level: 110.05, 110.50
Support level: 109.65, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7075. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7210
Support level: 0.7075, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6760.
Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6795
Support level: 0.6735, 0.6705
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3285. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3205, 1.3125
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 0.9980. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0080
Support level: 0.9980, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 52.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 50.35.
Resistance level: 52.75, 54.30
Support level: 50.65, 48.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum may suggests its prices to be traded lower toward the support level at 1308.50.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1321.55
Support level: 1308.50, 1302.90
110219 Morning Session Analysis
11th February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Trade talks all over again.
Last Friday, US dollar extended its gains to 9-month high against other major peers as investors piled into the currency following concerns over global economic recession. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.13% to 96.23. Widespread concerns over global economic growth and its momentum remains rift following recessive economic data that were released from several powerhouse such as China and German. Moreover, such concern was further compounded after US President Donald Trump indicates that he does not have a plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping prior to 90-day trade truce which is due to expire on March 1st. As such, investors will now place their focus upon the meetings between officials from Washington and Beijing which is bound to start on Monday for further market signals. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD extended its losses by 0.07% to 1.1320. The currency posted its steepest weekly loss against the US dollar after recent economic data from the region showed possible slowdown.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.25% to $52.47 per barrel. Worries over global widespread of economic slowdown has reduced market demand for crude oil and thus placing bearish pressure upon its prices. Similarly, gold prices were down 0.05% to $1,313.46 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY National Founding Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.6% | 0.3% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) | -0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Dec) | -2.06B | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.30. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 96.65, 97.00
Support level: 96.30, 96.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level of 1.2930. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2855
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following a slight rebound near the threshold of 1.1300. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1415
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1215
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel in between 109.55 and 110.00. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.50
Support level: 109.55, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.7070. MACD which has begun to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following a rebound prior to the support level at 0.6710. As MACD continues to illustrate persistent bullish signal, the pair is suggested to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3280. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the threshold of 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate slightly diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above at 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9970, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 52.80. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of 51.85.
Resistance level: 52.80, 53.70
Support level: 51.85, 51.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1315.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1329.00
Support level: 1303.00, 1292.85
080219 Afternoon Session Analysis
8 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD tumbles as RBA jitters.
Australian dollar tumbled to fresh monthly low against the US dollar after Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopts a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy. Pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.28% to 0.7078 as of writing. According to the monetary policy minutes released on yesterday, RBA continues to tame the bets for higher interest rates ahead after delivering a downward revision in Australia’s growth throughout 2019 and 2020. In addition, RBA’s inflation outlook was also revised lower with forecast for underlying inflationary pressure to lay low, reflecting lower growth rate and near-term weakness in prices. Similarly, pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.03% to 109.77. The safe-haven yen received higher demand in the market after report suggested that a meeting between US and China is highly unlikely to take place before March 1stdeadline.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.55% to $52.19 per barrel. Oil prices remains at the downside bias following higher concern with regards to possible global economic slowdown. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.05% to $1,309.50 a troy ounce following resilient US dollar during mid-Asian session.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day China Spring Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Dec) | 19.0B | 18.1B | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jan) | 9.3K | 8.0K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Unemployment Change (Jan) | 5.6% | 5.7% | – |
| 02:00
(9th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 847 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 96.30. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the target of 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.65
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2855
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1415
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1215
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.50
Support level: 109.55, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below the target of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound. MACD which has formed a positive divergence signal may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from 1.3325. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following a retracement from previous high. MACD which illustrate bearish signal may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9970
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior closure below 52.80. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses, towards the direction of 51.85.
Resistance level: 52.80, 53.70
Support level: 51.85, 51.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1305.40.
Resistance level: 1313.80, 1321.20
Support level: 1305.40, 1295.55
080219 Morning Session Analysis
8 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Will Brexit to go on smoothly?
US dollar eases from its previous high on yesterday following a sharp rebound in pound sterling. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.05% to 93.30 while pair of GBP/USD rose 0.44% to 1.2947. In the UK, British Prime Minister Theresa May commented that her talks with EU President Jean-Claude Junker with regards to Irish backstop and withdrawal agreement were “constructive”. Her tone has sparked optimism among investors as EU has previously rejected any effort in re-negotiating the Brexit agreement. Likewise, positive development in both nations would hinder UK from exiting EU without a trade deal (an option which may be dire for both economies). On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD fell 0.02% to 1.1337. Euro remains on the backfoot following soft industrial production data from Germany, signaling recessive economic momentum from EU’s largest economy.
Otherwise, crude oil price plunged more than 4% on yesterday to $51.88 per barrel. Oil prices tumbled after Russian disincline to come further into OPEC’s production cut plans while delays in US-China trade summit has dialed down market bets on the commodity’s price. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1,309.92 a troy ounce following a slight depreciation in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day China Spring Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Dec) | 19.0B | 18.1B | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jan) | 9.3K | 8.0K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Unemployment Change (Jan) | 5.6% | 5.7% | – |
| 02:00
(9th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 847 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 96.30. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the target of 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.65
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2855
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1300.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1415
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1215
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.50
Support level: 109.55, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below the target of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3325. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.0000. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1.0040.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9970
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 51.85. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 52.80, 53.70
Support level: 51.85, 51.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the top level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower following a successful retrace from the top level.
Resistance level: 1313.80, 1321.20
Support level: 1305.40, 1295.55
070219 Afternoon Session Analysis
7 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Kiwi flops over soft employment data.
New Zealand dollar received larger selloff in the FX market following the release of bearish economic data. Pair of NZD/USD was quoted down by 0.19% to 0.6760 as of writing. According to Statistics New Zealand, Employment Change for the fourth quarter came in at only 0.1%, lower than economist forecast for a reading of 0.3%. The disappointing data has reduced market optimism towards the region after the same data posted a rather bullish reading on the previous quarter. In addition, the currency received additional bearish selloff after unemployment rate for the fourth quarter rose to 4.3%, missing economist forecast for a rise up to 4.1%. On the other hand, the dollar index continued its bullish momentum after rising more than 0.05% to 96.15 against a basket of six major currencies. For the time being, the US dollar was well in bid following selloff across the board on currencies such as Euro, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar.
On the other hand, crude oil price slumped 0.28% to $53.86 per barrel. Oil prices dips further on Thursday as production levels in the US held at record levels, scaling down market positivism towards a resolution in global supply glut. Likewise, gold price was down by 0.19% to $1,304.11 a troy ounce as US dollar extend its gains since yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Lunar New Year
All Day CNY China – Spring Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
18:00 EUR EU Economic Forecast
20:00 GBP MPC Inflation Report
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.9% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 253K | 221K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of resistance level near 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.65
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2930. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2855
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1355. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1300
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.50.
Support level: 109.55, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD extended its losses after closing below 0.7170. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level at 0.6780. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance of 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target at 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance at 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9970
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, after closing below 53.70.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior closure below 1305.40. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests its prices to extend its losses towards the direction of 1295.55.
Resistance level: 1305.40, 1313.80
Support level: 1295.55, 1286.75
070219 Morning Session Analysis
7 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback accelerates with bullish trade data.
US dollar extended gains while hitting its highest level in two weeks following bullish trade balance data from the region. The dollar index was quoted up 0.33%, last seen around 96.11 during Asian trading session. According to reports released on yesterday, the trade deficit which measure the gap between US imports and exports has narrowed to $49.3 billion in November, substantially lower than $55.70 billion on the prior month. The upbeat trade data has provided bullish trajectory on the dollar as market participants has fully digested bearish signals given by the US Federal Reserve since two-weeks ago. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD slumped by 0.04% to 1.1368 as of writing. The single common currency hit two-weeks low against the greenback after Germany Factory Orders data came in lower than expected, showing broader perspective of economic weakness while hinting possible recession. This may delay any monetary policy tightening efforts from the European Central Banks if the current recessive condition persists past autumn 2019.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.05% to $53.76 per barrel. Oil prices received some bearish pressure after reports shows that crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma has reached its highest level since January 2018. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.02% to $1,307.51 a troy ounce due to bullish US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Lunar New Year
All Day CNY China – Spring Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
17:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
18:00 EUR EU Economic Forecast
20:00 GBP MPC Inflation Report
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) | -1.9% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 253K | 221K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of resistance level near 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.65
Support level: 96.00, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.2930. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2855
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1355. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1300
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower following a successful retracement from the top level.
Resistance level: 110.00, 110.50.
Support level: 109.55, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD extended its losses after closing below 0.7170. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7275
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level at 0.6780. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3175, 1.3115
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance at 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0080
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9970
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, after closing below 53.70.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior closure below 1313.80. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1305.40.
Resistance level: 1313.80, 1321.20
Support level: 1305.40, 1295.55
010219 Afternoon Session Analysis
1 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD skids as China economy contracts further.
Aussie dollar retraced from its previous high over the backdrop of downbeat economic data from the region and China. As of writing, pairing of AUD/USD tumbled 0.28% to 0.7252. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Producer Price Index for the fourth quarter came in less than expected with only 0.5% versus forecast of 0.6%. A slight tick down in producer prices may derail current inflation level from achieving Reserve Bank of Australia’s target. Australian dollar was further pulled down after Caixin Manufacturing PMI contracts further to 48.3 versus previous reading of 49.7. The data accompanies a series of underwhelming reports from China which signals possible downturn in economic momentum. On the other hand, US dollar was up 0.03% to 95.26 against other major currencies. Greenback rebounds sharply from its previous low following optimistic housing data from yesterday while traders anticipate the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for tonight.
On the other hand, crude oil price depreciates by 0.54% to $53.53 per barrel. The commodity received large selloff after China releases downbeat manufacturing data this morning. A slowdown in manufacturing activity may decrease China’s demand for crude oil and thus, prolonging the global supply glut. Otherwise, gold price was down by 0.24% to $1,318.95 a troy ounce following a sharp rebound in US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 49.9 | 49.9 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 50.5 | 50.5 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 53.5 | – |
| Tentative | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.6% | 1.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | 312K | 165K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 3.9% | 3.9% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 54.3 | 54.2 | – |
| 02:00 (2nd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 862 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after successfully breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 95.30, 95.50
Support level: 95.00, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3125. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards after successfully breaking the target of 1.3060.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3060, 1.2990
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1515. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1415.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1515
Support level: 1.1415, 1.1355
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 108.95. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the level of 108.95.
Resistance level: 108.95, 109.35
Support level: 108.25, 107.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 0.7275. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7360
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.6890.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6890, 0.6820
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3120. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 1.3175.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3070
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9920. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.9970.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9920, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 53.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 54.40, 55.20
Support level: 53.70, 52.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further downward after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1321.20, 1332.00
Support level: 1313.80, 1305.40
0102019 Morning Session Analysis
1 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar recoup losses amid New Home Sales, investors eye on NFP.
Dollar index was traded higher by 0.23% to 95.22 against a basket of six major currency pairs yesterday amid higher than expected New Home Sales data. The housing data which measures the total sale of new homes came in at 657K, exceeding economists’ expectation of 560K, indicating a growing economy although being pressured by global growth slowdown. However, yesterday’s Initial Jobless Claims data showed an increasing number of claims from unemployed workers in the US which may affect the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data but showed no significant impact to the dollar. Investors will now place their attention towards today’s highlighted data including NFP, Unemployment Rate and also ISM Manufacturing Employment to further determine greenback’s momentum. In other news, pair of USD/CAD ticks higher by 0.02% to 1.3125 while remaining strong against the dollar following yesterday Canada GDP data which met its expectations of -0.1%. The Canadian dollar was gaining for the past few weeks while being supported by increasing crude oil prices. As Canada is one of the top oil exporters in the world, the positive sentiment surrounding oil markets now continue to push the currency higher, providing a strong economy outlook for the country.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained traded flat at $54.00 per barrel after falling off from high levels following yesterday’s updates on US-Sino trade talks. According to reports, White House stated that US might increase its’ tariffs on Chinese goods if no satisfactory deal is achieved by March 1. In accordance to the report, US President Donald Trump also stated that he might meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping again to try reaching a deal. The trade tensions put pressure onto the oil market, causing investors to sell the commodity. On the other hand, gold price falls 0.05% to $1321.20 while remaining at high levels while market uncertainties and global growth worries continues to haunt the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 49.9 | 49.9 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 50.5 | 50.5 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI | 54.2 | 53.5 | – |
| Tentative | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.6% | 1.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | 312K | 165K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 3.9% | 3.9% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 54.3 | 54.2 | – |
| 02:00 (2nd) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 862 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 96.15. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 95.55.
Resistance level: 95.55, 96.05
Support level: 95.15, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from its high. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3085.
Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1445. MACD which illustrate bearish signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.1445.
Resistance level: 1.1500, 1.1565
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1405
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 108.95. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its bullish momentum after it breaks above the resistance level 108.95.
Resistance level: 108.95, 110.00
Support level: 107.85, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7290. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7225.
Resistance level: 0.7290, 0.7335
Support level: 0.7225, 0.7155
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was lower while currently testing the support level 0.6910. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement after if breaks below the support level 0.6910.
Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7025
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6875
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3125. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction toward the resistance level 1.3215.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9950. However, lack of clear signal and momentum from MACD suggest the pair to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout above or below the closest resistance or support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 54.55. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 51.75
Resistance level: 54.55, 57.80
Support level: 51.75, 50.15
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1320.25. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend it bearish momentum after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1329.15, 1340.50
Support level: 1320.25, 1307.80
310119 Afternoon Session Analysis
31 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
AUD rallies, Fed preaches patience.
Australian dollar extended its gains against greenback following the release of bullish economic data from China. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.30%, last seen around 0.7267. For the month of January, China’s Manufacturing PMI came in higher than expected with 49.5 versus forecast of only 49.3. Similarly, Non-Manufacturing PMI for the same month expanded to 54.7, significantly higher than prior reading of 53.8. As China is Australia’s main trade partner, any economic signal from the region could bring an impact upon AUD pairs. Elsewhere, US dollar extended its losses during afternoon trading session following dovish stance taken by the Federal Reserve. The central bank ditched its preference to “gradually” raising interest rates while reiterating to hold off in the case of a global economic slowdown and muted inflation pressure. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar index was down 0.11% to 94.92.
In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 0.78% to $54.47 per barrel. Oil prices extends its gains for third session following signs of tightening supply in the United States while Saudi Arabia continues to trim its oil exports. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1,319.40 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jan) | -14K | -11K | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 7.9% | 7.9% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 199K | 215K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Nov) | 544K | 560K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 95.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 94.60.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.30
Support level: 94.60, 94.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 1.3125. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3125.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3060, 1.2990
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 1.1515. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after successfully closing above 1.1515.
Resistance level: 1.1515, 1.1585
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1415
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 108.25.
Resistance level: 108.95, 109.35
Support level: 108.25, 107.50
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.7275. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after successfully breaking the target at 0.7275.
Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7360
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 0.6890. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.7000
Support level: 0.6890, 0.6820
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.3120. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards after successfully closing below 1.3120.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3070
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.9920. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9920.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9920, 0.9875
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was trade flat near the support level at 54.40. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 55.20, 56.30
Support level: 54.40, 53.70
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1321.20. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further upwards after successfully breaking the resistance of 1321.20.
Resistance level: 1321.20, 1332.00
Support level: 1313.80, 1305.40