3100119 Morning Session Analysis
31 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar plunges to 3-weeks low amid FOMC Statement.
Dollar index was traded lower against a basket of six major currency pairs following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement regarding Fed’s decision on federal funds rate. During yesterday’s statement, the committee stated that they will remain patient while determining suitable adjustments to the target range for funds rate to tackle current economic slowdown condition. The dovish statement lowered investors’ confidence for gradual rate hike this year while causing the dollar to undergo large sell-off. Besides that, prior to the FOMC statement was the release of higher than expected ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and also the Pending Home Sales data. Although the job data with a reading of 213K against 180K helped push the dollar higher, the gains were limited by a poor Pending Home Sales data with an actual reading of -2.2% compared to 0.8%. Dollar index slumped 0.03% to 94.96 as of writing. In other news, pair of EUR/USD was up by 0.09% to 1.1485 supported by the major fall in dollar and also higher than expected German CPI. The CPI came in at -0.8% compared to -0.9%, indicating a higher spending rate while also lifting the poor sentiment which haunted the euro market for the past week. Although overall growth for Euro Zone remains slow, inflation data like the CPI would provide good support for the market.
In the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.31% to $54.40 per barrel amid the release of pro-inventory data. According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories was down by more than 1 million barrels to 0.919M. Besides that, oil sentiment continues to be supported by recent sanction on Venezuelans oil export and also OPEC production cut. Current outlook for oil market remained positive as investors awaits future news regarding the increase of OPEC’s production cut. On the other hand, gold price falls 0.11% to $1317.90 after exceeding recent highs amid FOMC dovish statement which sends investors flocking into safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jan) | -14K | -11K | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 7.9% | 7.9% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 199K | 215K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Nov) | 544K | 560K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 95.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 94.60.
Resistance level: 95.15, 95.55
Support level: 94.60, 94.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3085. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3205.
Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1480. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1565.
Resistance level: 1.1565, 1.1615
Support level: 1.1480, 1.1445
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 109.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 107.85.
Resistance level: 109.10, 110.00
Support level: 107.85, 107.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7270. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7230.
Resistance level: 0.7270, 0.7335
Support level: 0.7230, 0.7155
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6910. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6910, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6875, 0.6840
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following rebound from the support level 1.3125. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3215.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 0.9950. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend it losses towards the support level 0.9910.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 54.55. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the support level 51.75.
Resistance level: 54.55, 57.80
Support level: 51.75, 48.35
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1320.25. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1305.10.
Resistance level: 1320.25, 1329.15
Support level: 1305.10, 1296.85
300119 Afternoon Session Analysis
30 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Can Theresa May save Brexit?
Pound sterling extended its losses on Wednesday after UK lawmakers reject amendments to extend Brexit deadline scheduled on March 29th 2019. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.39% to 1.3093. On yesterday, an amendment suggested by Labor MP Yvette Cooper that sought to extend the Brexit deadline if MPs fail to approve Withdrawal Agreement by February 26th has been rejected by the Parliament. Without an option for extension of deadline, Britain is highly possible to exit from the EU without securing a deal. Subsequently, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be heading to Brussels and persuade EU lawmakers in making amendments upon prior agreed Withdrawal Deal. However, EU has previously rejected to renegotiate the deal and this may further complicate Brexit progress and chances of “soft exit”. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.58% to 0.7195. The Australian dollar received higher demand over the backdrop of bullish CPI data and upward revision on iron ore price forecasts.
As for commodities, crude oil price appreciates by 0.43% to $53.28 per barrel. Oil prices extended its gains while traders assess the degree of oil shortage after US enacted sanctions against several Venezuela’s nationally owned oil companies. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.17% to $1,313.93 a troy ounce following higher risk.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (31st) USD FOMC Statement
03:00 (31st) USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | -0.7% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) | 271K | 170K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 3.4% | 2.6% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.7% | 1.1% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.970M | – | – |
| 03:00 (31st) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel. MACD begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to extend its losses in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 95.60, 95.75
Support level: 95.30, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3060. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3230
Support level: 1.3060, 1.2990
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.1435. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after breaking the target of 1.1435.
Resistance level: 1.1435, 1.1515
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1300
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while recently rebound from the support of 0.7145. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7115
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after successfully closing below 1.3250.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3220
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, in tandem with the current bearish trend.
Resistance level: 0.9970, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9935, 0.9920
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following a rebound from its previous low. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 53.70, 54.40
Support level: 52.80, 51.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior closure above 1305.40. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests its prices to extend further up after closing above 1313.80.
Resistance level: 1313.80, 1321.20
Support level: 1305.40, 1295.55
301119 Morning Session Analysis
30 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar recovered from poor data driven by pound major sell-off.
Dollar index ticked up by 0.03% to 95.46 against a basket of six major currency pairs during early Asian trading session after being sold off amid poor consumer confidence data. According to US Conference Board, consumer confidence came in at 120.2, missing economists’ expectation of 124.7 while indicating a poorer economic growth prior to the government shutdown and volatile stock market. However, the temporary fall in dollar was later cushioned by the major sell-off in pound sterling amid the rejection of amendment to extend the deadline for Brexit. Without extending the Article 50, UK will be forced to leave the EU by 29th March with no exceptions, thus increasing the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. However, amendments regarding the renegotiation of the Irish backstop and the case of a no-deal Brexit won the backing of UK Lawmakers. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be expected to persuade EU lawmakers regarding the amendments made to the Brexit deal while facing large pressures as EU had since been reluctant to reopen negotiations. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD edged higher by 0.15% to 1.3085
In the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.14% to $53.30 per barrel after being supported by the sanction on the export of Venezuela oil into the US which had brightened the cloudy sentiment for crude oil. Besides that, API reports on weekly crude oil stock indicated a major drop in stock level from 6.550M to 2.098M. Oil bulls cheered on the positive data by buying oil and hoping that OPEC may increase its production cut in the near future to further support oil prices. On the other hand, gold price falls 0.07% to $1310.45 after undergoing a large demand following the market uncertainties caused by the arrestment Huawei CFO which will in turn harm the trade talks between US and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (31st) USD FOMC Statement
03:00 (31st) USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | -0.7% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) | 271K | 170K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 3.4% | 2.6% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.7% | 1.1% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.970M | – | – |
| 03:00 (31st) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 95.20. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 95.60.
Resistance level: 95.60, 96.05
Support level: 95.05, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3090. MACD which illustrate bearish bias with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1415. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards back the support level 1.1415.
Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1565
Support level: 1.1415, 1.1350
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 109.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 110.00.
Resistance level: 110.00, 111.40
Support level: 109.10, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7230.
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7270
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7115
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6840. MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6800.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6800, 0.6755
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3280. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3240.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3310
Support level: 1.3240, 1.3190
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9950. However, MACD which display lack of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.9910.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 51.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 54.55.
Resistance level: 54.55, 57.80
Support level: 51.75, 48.35
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1305.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1305.10.
Resistance level: 1318.10, 1329.15
Support level: 1305.10, 1296.85
290119 Afternoon Session Analysis
29 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Huawei drama escalates, Yen in bid.
Safe-haven Japanese yen remains well in bid on Tuesday after US Justice Department charged China’s Huawei Technologies Co Ltd with fraud, further intensifying ongoing trade tension in between US and China. US government announced on yesterday to charge Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer and two affiliates with bank wire fraud for violation against international sanction enacted upon Iran. Investors fear that the charges could complicate high level trade talks which is set to being tomorrow as China’s Premier Liu He will meet with US trade representative Robert Lighthizer. On the other hand, greenback remains under pressure while investors anticipate the outcome of Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Traders are widely expecting the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance as recent corporate earnings and economic data shows signs of diminishing momentum. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.09% to 109.23 while the dollar index was down 0.01% to 95.35.
In the commodities section, crude oil price rose 0.10% to $51.93 per barrel. Oil prices received some bullish support after Trump administration imposed a series of sanctions upon Venezuelan state-owned oil firm, severely curbing its exports to the United States. Similarly, gold price rose 0.05% to $1,303.99 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 23:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) | 128.1 | 124.7 | – |
| 05:30 (30th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 6.550M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel in between 95.60 and 95.30. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 95.60, 95.75
Support level: 95.30, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3230. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1.3125.
Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3125, 1.2990
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.1435. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above 1.1435.
Resistance level: 1.1435, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1390, 1.1350
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after successfully breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 109.35, 109.90
Support level: 108.95, 108.25
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel in between 0.7220 and 0.7115. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7115
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level.
Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3280. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.9970. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9920, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9875, 0.9815
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 51.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further upwards after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 52.80, 53.70
Support level: 51.85, 51.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1305.40. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1305.40, 1313.80
Support level: 1295.55, 1286.75
280119 Afternoon Session Analysis
28 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback plagued by doves and risks.
Greenback extended its losses against other major peers on Monday while market participants shifts their attention towards the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting which is scheduled later this week. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.10% to 95.33 against a basket of six major currencies. Federal Reserve officials will be meeting this week in between 29th till 30th January while the market is widely expecting Chairman Jerome Powell to acknowledge growing downside risks which surrounds the US economy. In addition, greenback received further bearish pressure following a deal to reopen the US government following prolonged shutdown since December last year. The reopening of US government while coupled with bearish outlook upon its economy has shifted market’s focus towards other risky assets such as pound sterling and euro. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.03% to 1.3204 during Asian trading session. The currency received some bullish support after media reported that the Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party had privately decided to offer condition backing for British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.34% to $53.12 per barrel. Oil prices slips on Monday afternoon after earnings report in China’s industrial firms shrank for second consecutive month in December due to falling prices and sluggish factory activities. As China is the world’s second largest oil consumer, any possible signs of economic slowdown in the region may lead to the downfall of oil prices. On the other hand, gold price slipped 0.05% to $1,302.72 a troy ounce following minor technical correction.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
22.30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 95.30. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.60, 95.75
Support level: 95.30, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 1.3230. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3125, 1.2990
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance of 1.1435. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1435, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1390, 1.1350
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing near the bottom level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards after successfully closing below 109.35.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high level. MACD which shows diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255
Support level: 0.7175, 0.7145
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6780
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3220. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful closure above 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3175 , 1.3115
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.9990. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9990, 1.0045
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9835
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 52.80.
Resistance level: 53.75, 54.40
Support level: 52.80, 51.85
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1305.40. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1305.40, 1313.80
Support level: 1295.55, 1287.35
280119 Morning Session Analysis
28 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar tumbled following more dovish Fed expectations.
Dollar index decline sharply against its basket of six major rival currencies on Friday following expectations of Federal Reserve will turn more dovish note on this week’s meeting. According to reports from Wall Street Journal, the Fed is widely expected to leave its balance sheet program and policy rate unchanged this week which slump in global markets in late last year has seen Fed is leaning to more dovish note. Besides that, ongoing shutdown of government continues to weight on the market, which dragging the dollar further. Dollar index slumped 0.03% to 95.40 as of writing. Meanwhile, EURUSD recovers 0.03% to 1.1411 as of writing despite weaker than expected data on Friday. Although growth data German IFO Business Climate came in weaker than expected reading with 99.1 compared to 100.7, euro made a strong comeback as dovish expectation on U.S Fed on Friday have bounced the euro sentiment back.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.13% to 53.41 at the time of writing following increased rig oil count, According to reports from Bakers Hughes, oil rig have increased to 862, which added 10 more facilities from its previous reading which signaling the prospect of rising crude oil output. On the other hand, gold price skyrocketed 0.15% to 1302.85 as of writing following weaker dollar dragged by dovish FED expectations.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22.00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
22.30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 95.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend it losses towards the support level 95.05.
Resistance level: 95.60, 96.05
Support level: 95.05, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3170. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.3170.
Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1415. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1415.
Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.00. MACD which illustrate continuous bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.10.
Resistance level: 110.00, 111.40
Support level: 109.10, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate bullish bias with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7230.
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7270
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7115
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6840. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6875.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6910
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6800
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3240. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3190
Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3300
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9910. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9910.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 52.85. However, due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above or below the closest resistance or support level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 54.55, 57.80
Support level: 52.85, 50.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1296.85. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1309.00
Resistance level: 1309.00, 1325.75
Support level: 1296.85, 1287.05
250119 Morning Session Analysis
25 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Draghi steals the show, Euro relinquished.
Euro experienced a large selloff in the FX market following dovish signals given by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.1309. As widely expected, ECB has maintained their stance with regards to monetary policy by leaving its benchmark rates unchanged. However, Draghi warned during its press conference that the risks which envelopes the Euro Zone growth outlook has moved towards the downside due to persistent uncertainties. The downtick in growth was linked to various factors such as geopolitical and threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility. In addition, Draghi noted that they may leave their interest rates at a low level for extended period of time should the economy frailties in the region perseveres. On the other hand, the dollar index rose 0.46% to 96.13 following major depreciation in euro. Likewise, the greenback received additional support following the release of several economic data from the US which detailed better-than-expected readings.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose more than 1% on yesterday to $53.13 per barrel following Venezuelan crisis. According to news outlets, Trump administration is reportedly considering sanctions against Venezuelan oil in order to punish President Nicolas Maduro’s government for rescinding diplomatic ties with Washington. The sanction may further reduce global oil supply and prop up its prices in the long-run. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.02% to $1,280.88 a troy ounce over the backdrop of stronger US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 101.0 | 100.7 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Nov) | 544K | 560K | – |
| 02:00
(26th) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 825 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 96.30. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 96.10.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.50
Support level: 96.10, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the top level. Both MACD and Stochastic has formed a bullish signal which may suggests the pair to extend its gains following a breakout from the top level.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3230
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2855
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.1290. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1325, 1.1350
Support level: 1.1290, 1.1255
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.7115. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support at 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.6990
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a ascending triangle following prior retrace from the top. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3320, 1.3290
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the support of 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9990, 1.0020
Support level: 0.9950, 0.9935
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 54.40.
Resistance level: 54.40, 56.30
Support level: 52.80, 51.85
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1284.35, 1287.20
Support level: 1280.00, 1277.45
240119 Afternoon Session Analysis
24 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Aussie skydived as mortgage rate rises.
Australian dollar received tremendous selloff in the FX market after one of the major Australia banks hiked their mortgage loan rates. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD slumped 0.20% to 0.7127. According to Reuters, National Australia Bank (NAB) has announced their decision to raise mortgage rates by 12 to 16 basis points in response to sustained increase in funding cost. Prior, NAB was the only Australia’s Big Four banks that chose not to lift its mortgage rates last year in order to garner higher market share in the sector. Investors believes that a mortgage hike by major lenders may accentuate towards housing market slowdown and force Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut their interest rates further. However, losses on the Australian dollar was limited after regional employment data shows better-than-expected reading for the month of December. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.07%, last seen around 1.1389 during mid-Asian trading session. Currently, investors are keeping an eye on European Central Bank’s interest rate decision later today which is highly expected to keep their policy accommodative for an extended period of time.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticks up 0.06% to $52.12 per barrel. Oil price extended its recovery from prior losses while market participants continues to monitor global economic growth performance and outlook. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.03% to $1,283.24 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR -German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 51.5 | 51.3 | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 220K | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 53.8 | 53.5 | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Services PMI (Jan) | 54.4 | 54.1 | – |
| 00:00 (25th) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.683M | -0.042M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 95.75. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 95.75.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.10
Support level: 95.60, 95.30
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3030, 1.2960
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.1380.
Resistance level: 1.1405, 1.1420
Support level: 1.1380, 1.1370
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the support of 109.35. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 109.90.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level near 0.7115. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 0.7115.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which has begun to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 1.3360.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3320, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 0.9950. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downward, towards the direction of 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9990
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9835
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 52.80, 54.40
Support level: 51.85, 50.10
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within an ascending channel. However, MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its prices to extend its losses in short-term, towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1284.35, 1287.20
Support level: 1280.00, 1273.55
240119 Morning Session Analysis
24 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains pressured by trade war, government shutdown.
Dollar index slumped against its basket of six major currency pairs as concerns over global growth slowdown and ongoing government shutdown continue to weight on the market. While the US government closed for the 34th day, investors began to worry about the impact that would be brought to the dollar market if the term was extended. Longer government shutdowns will cause higher costs and expenses by the government while increasing overall government debt. In addition, government shutdown has slowed the partial release of certain economic indicators and this will affect Fed’s rate hike which was originally scheduled for March this year, thus risks decreasing tarnishing the appeal of dollar. Besides that, ongoing U.S – Sino trade war continues to add further concern as US have cancel trade planning meeting with China recently and it currently still remains the most dominant factor for investor sentiment. Dollar index was down 0.05% to 95.72 as of writing. Meanwhile, USDCAD rose 0.05% to 1.3348 as of writing following the decline in retail sales. According to reports, retail sales disappoints with the reading of -0.9% against -0.6%, its sharpest drop since December and it may affect future plans of rate hike from Bank of Canada.
In the commodities market, crude oil price have fell 0.05% to 52.35 per barrel as of writing following increased inventories level. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute, weekly crude oil stocks rose to 6.550M compared to previous data reading -0.560M. The increase in inventory has wiped out investor’s confidence in oil, thus dragging the oil sentiment down. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.06% to 1283.56 as demand for safe haven asset continues to be supported by dollar weakness and global growth fears.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR -German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 51.5 | 51.3 | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 220K | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 53.8 | 53.5 | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Services PMI (Jan) | 54.4 | 54.1 | – |
| 00:00 (25th) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.683M | -2.683M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 95.60. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3100. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3015, 1.2930
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1400. MACD which display bias bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 109.90. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7170. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7100.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7030
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6780. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6850, 0.6915
Support level: 0.6780, 0.6715
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.3325. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 1.3325.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3500
Support level: 1.3325, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.9950. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking below previous support level 52.70. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 51.60.
Resistance level: 52.70, 53.90
Support level: 51.60, 50.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded in the middle-level of the channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to be traded lower towards the upward trend line and bottom-level of the channel near 1280.00.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00
230119 Afternoon Session Analysis
23 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Yen tumbles as BoJ turns dovish.
Japanese yen extended its losses during mid-Asian session following the release of Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Pair of USD/JPY rose 0.31%, last quoted at 109.69. As widely expected, Bank of Japan (BoJ) has kept their policy tools unchanged with the target interest rate at -0.10%. However, the central bank also revised their median Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast lower for the year 2019 and 2020 from 1.4% to 0.9%. The downward revision was widely expected and it reinforces market outlook that the central bank is unlikely to unwind its accommodative policy anytime soon. In the other region, greenback was traded flat at around 95.93 against a basket of six major peers. Market participants continues to ponder upon political developments in the region as US government remains shut for its 31st day. On a brighter note, CNN news reported that the US Senate is likely to vote on the re-opening of US government and Republican’s plan to fund President Donald Trump’s border wall. The resolution in government shutdown may decrease overall market risk and may catalyze higher market demand towards risky assets.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended its gains by 0.09% to $53.00 per barrel. Oil prices remains steady since early Asian market following hopes that Chinese fiscal stimulus may help to resolve an economic slowdown in China. Otherwise, gold price ticks down 0.07% to $1,284.29 a troy ounce while traders wait for further market signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) | 8 | 5 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 21.30 | CAD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.6% | – |
| 05.30 (24th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -0.560M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.50
Support level: 95.75, 95.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.2960. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2860
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of downward channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1420
Support level: 1.1330, 1.1310
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its previous high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after successfully closing above 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7180
Support level: 0.7110, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6780. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 0.6780.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3360. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3320.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3320, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat within the range of 0.9990 and 0.9950. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9990, 1.0020
Support level: 0.9950, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 54.10.
Resistance level: 54.10, 55.55
Support level: 52.75, 51.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1284.35. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1284.35, 1287.20
Support level: 1280.00, 1273.55
230119 Morning Session Analysis
23 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar slips following weak housing data.
Dollar index fell against its basket of six major rival pairs after the weak release of U.S Existing Home Sales data yesterday. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales have fell to 4.99M which missed economists’ expectations with the reading of 5.25M. The sluggish housing data which starting to hint a slowdown in U.S economy following rising mortgage rates and also labor shortages that lead to the tightening of home supplies. Besides that, the uncertainty in trade war between China and US remains a concern in the market where the unresolved trade dispute could dragged the sentiment further below. Dollar slips 0.02% to 95.75 as of writing. Meanwhile, NZD/USD skyrocketed 0.19% to 0.6762 at the time of writing following upbeat CPI data. According to Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand CPI for Q4 came in 1.9% by surprise which beat market expectation of 1.8%. The surprising data reflects the economy in New Zealand remains steady and growing, thus, encouraging the bid for the kiwi.
In the commodities market, crude oil price stabilized and edged higher 0.11% to $52.79 per barrel at the time of writing. However, crude oil sentiment remains limited by weak China and global economy slowdown fears. The black commodity remains underpinned by recent China data which reflects on the process of slowdown in its economy. The ongoing trade dispute between US and China also continues to weaken the market as a widespread economy downturn is widely expected to dent the demand of fuel and oil. Market participant will now focus on upcoming inventories data to determine further direction for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.05% to 1284.75 following safe-haven choice supported by sluggish dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders | 8 | 5 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 21.30 | CAD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.6% | – |
| 05.30 (24th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -0.560M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.60.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.2930. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3015.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2930, 1.2815
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1350. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 109.90. MACD which display diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 0.7100. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7170.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7030
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6780. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6625
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3325. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3500
Support level: 1.3325, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remained traded in the middle of a sideway channel. However, MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the bottom level of the channel and the support level of 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9995, 1.0030
Support level: 0.9950, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 52.70. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 53.90.
Resistance level: 53.90, 55.00
Support level: 52.70, 51.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1280.00 and the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1288.00.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00
220119 Afternoon Session Analysis
22 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Sterling jitters, greenback flattens.
Pound sterling was traded lower during mid-Asian trading session amid Brexit uncertainty while market participants waits for further signal from the market. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.08% to 1.2879. Following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s defeat in the Parliament last week, UK Labour Party lead by Jeremy Corbyn has proposed a plan to force for a second Brexit referendum which will be voted by parliament next week. If a majority back for the referendum, the Parliament could force Theresa May to held out a new public vote which may bring to the reversal of Brexit. On the other hand, greenback was traded flat around 95.95 as investors wait for more progress with regards to US-China trade talks. According to Wall Street Journal, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is in favour of easing tariffs upon Chinese goods which may further diminish trade tension between both countries. However, the US Treasury Department denies the news, sending mixed signals in the market.
As for commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 0.83% to $53.47 per barrel. Oil prices received some bearish selloff after International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts, signalling possibility of a slowdown in crude demands worldwide. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.13% to $1,278.67 a troy ounce following higher demand on risky assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings +Bonus (Nov) | 3.3% | 3.3% | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) | 21.9K | 20.0K | – |
| 18.00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) | -17.5 | -18.4 | – |
| 23.00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec) | 5.32M | 5.25M | – |
| 05:45 (23rd) | NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.9% | 0.0% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to advance further upwards after closing above 96.10.
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.50
Support level: 95.75, 95.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.2910. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2960
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level of descending channel. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1420
Support level: 1.1330, 1.1310
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support of 109.35.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 0.7145. MACD which illustrate the formation of bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.7110.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7180
Support level: 0.7110, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the support level of 0.6710. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.3320. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after successfully closing above the target of 1.3320.
Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3260
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above 0.9990.
Resistance level: 0.9990, 1.0020
Support level: 0.9950, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement and closure below 54.10. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 54.10, 55.55
Support level: 52.75, 51.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 1280.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of 1273.55.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1284.35
Support level: 1273.55, 1263.20
220119 Morning Session Analysis
22 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remains steady following M.L.K holiday.
Dollar index gaining some momentum against a basket of six major currencies despite thin market following with Martin Luther King’s Holiday. Although market volatility remains low, dollar continues to be supported by ongoing uncertainty around Brexit negotiations. However, its potential upside remains pressured by global growth slowdown especially from China where its economy grew at is slowest pace since 1990 according to data. Besides that, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also cuts its 2019 and 2020 global growth forecast which causing further concern for the market. Market participants will now focus on upcoming data and fresh catalyst to determine further direction for the dollar. Dollar index inched higher 0.02% to 95.95 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBPUSD slips 0.03% to 1.2885 at the time of writing as UK Labor Party has proposed plans of second Brexit referendum. According to reports, Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has endorsed a plan to force a second referendum as he is pressured by Labour party members and MPs. The news sparks further uncertainty as a successful vote could lead to Brexit being reversed.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.95% to $53.66 per barrel at the time of writing following global growth slowdown continues to threaten the market. Oil market remains cloudy and pressured by economy slowdown in China that could decrease the demand for crude oil as China is the second largest consumer on crude oil. Besides that, ongoing trade war also continues to haunt market participant and causing fear in market sentiment. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.18% to 1277.99 as of writing following a steady dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings +Bonus (Nov) | 3.3% | 3.3% | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) | 21.9K | 20.0K | – |
| 18.00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) | -17.5 | -18.4 | – |
| 23.00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec) | 5.32M | 5.25M | – |
| 05.45 (Wed) | NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 95.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the support level 95.75.
Resistance level: 96.40, 97.15
Support level: 95.75, 95.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the MA line 50 (blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair extend rebound towards the resistance level 1.2915.
Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.3000
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2720
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1360. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1480.
Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1565
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.10
Resistance level: 110.00, 111.40
Support level: 109.10, 107.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7270
Support level: 0.7155, 0.7115
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.6715. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6800.
Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6680
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 1.3300. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3060
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9985. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9985, 1.0010
Support level: 0.9950, 0.9910
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 54.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 52.85.
Resistance level: 54.55, 57.80
Support level: 52.85, 50.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1278.90. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.85
Support level: 1278.90, 1267.25
210119 Afternoon Session Analysis
21 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback ‘freezed’ amid ongoing government shutdown.
Dollar index traded flat against its six major peer currencies after hitting high level of 96.00 despite US government shutdown issue unsolved yet. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed an immigration deal to Democrats on last Saturday in a will to end 29-day partial government shutdown while insisting on his demand for U.S Mexico wall funding. However, Democratic Party seem to be not affected by the pressure piled by Donald trump where they immediately dismissed the deal offer by him. On the other side, Democrats party insisted talks on border security will be continued only after the government is reopened, emphasized by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. As of writing, Dollar index inched down 0.05% to 95.85. On the other hand, the pair of AUD/USD rose 0.03% to 0.7165 although China GDP growth slows to weakest in 28 years, but the pair was supported by higher than expected Industrial Production Data for December. China GDP data came in at 6.4%, hitting the economists’ forecast while Industrial Production Data shown in a rate of 5.7%, out of economist expectation of 5.3% and eventually bolstered the Aussie Dollar as Australia is highly correlated to China economy’s performance.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.50% to $54.20 per barrel, highest level for 2019 after data showed refinery processing in China climbed to record high in 2019, despite China GDP data declined to weakest level. Besides, gold price rose 0.08% to $1282.30 amid demand for Greenback has weaken.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentatif GBP UK Prime Minister May Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI | 0.1% | -0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.60.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggset the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2815, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 1.1350. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggset the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.90. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the bottom-level of the channel at 0.7170. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the bottom-level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7100
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6715. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6625
USDCAD, H4 USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 1.3245. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above or below the sideway channel is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level of 53.90. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 55.00.
Resistance level: 55.00, 56.15
Support level: 53.90, 52.70
GOLD_H4: Gold was traded lower while currently near the support level 1280.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: January 21 – 25
| Monday, January 21 |
Data CNY– GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Events GBP – UK Prime Minister May Speaks
|
| Tuesday, January 22 | Data
GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, January 23 |
Data NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q4) JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) USD – Crude Oil Inventories
Events JPY – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement JPY – BoJ Outlook Report JPY – BoJ Press Conference
|
| Thursday, January 24 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – Employment Change (Dec) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) USD – Markit Composite PMI (Jan) USD – Services PMI (Jan)
Events EUR – ECB Press Conference
|
|
Friday, January 25
|
Data CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) USD – New Home Sales CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
210119 Morning Session Analysis
21 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar supported by Brexit woes and trade talk optimism.
Dollar index climbed against a basket of six major currencies pairs last Friday amid Sino-US trade talk optimism where recent reports from Chinese officials stated that China will offer to boost imports of US goods up to a sum of $1 trillion to balance its trade surplus with the US. The news boosted the sentiment for the dollar market as investors hope that the trade war would be resolved sooner than expected. Investors will now eye on the outcome of another round of trade talks as China Vice Premier Liu He travel to Washington at the end of the month. Further supported the dollar was poor sentimen from the pound market regarding Brexit uncertainties while investors awaits for an alternative plan from UK Prime Minister Theresa May after failing to get approval for her Brexit deal. May is expected to deliver a speech later today which include the future plans for Brexit as well as the possibilities for a second Brexit referendum. As of writing, dollar index inched higher by 0.02% to 95.90 while pair of GBP/USD fell by 0.09% to 1.2860.
In the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.45% to $54.19 per barrel amid trade talk optimism and better than expected data. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data came in at 852 compared to its forecasted reading of 873. The decrease in oil rig activity in the US will lead to a lower production and inventory level which boosted the sentiment for the oil market. Besides, gold price fell by 0.08% to $1281.70 a troy ounce amid stronger dollar and lower demand for safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentatif GBP UK Prime Minister May Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI | 0.1% | -0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.60.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level 1.2930. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2815.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2815, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 1.1350. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggset the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.90. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the bottom-level of the channel at 0.7170. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggset the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the bottom-level of the sideway channel.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7100
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6715. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6625
USDCAD, H4 USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 1.3245. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above or below the sideway channel is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminishied bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level of 53.90. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 55.00.
Resistance level: 55.00, 56.15
Support level: 53.90, 52.70
GOLD_H4: Gold was traded lower while currently near the support level 1280.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00