280318 Daily Analysis
28 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Losses in Greenback limited following retreat of US-China trade war.
Dollar index recovered by 0.33% from its five-week lows against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, currently standing at 88.88 following an ease of fears over trade war between United States and China. In pursuing a win-win situation for both parties, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were reported to be involved in the negotiation – mainly on tariff reduction on imported cars, encouraging more purchase of U.S. made semiconductors (instead of those made from South Korea and Taiwan) as well as easing access for American businesses to China’s markets. According to Chinese officials, they are working to finalize rules within the next two months to enable foreign financial groups to take majority stakes in Chinese securities firms. The retreat of the potential trade war has limit losses endured by the Greenback following release of negative economic data yesterday with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge missing the economists’ forecast of 131, last recorded at 127.7. On the other hand, EUR/USD fell 0.17% to $1.2411 attributable to a decline in the European Commission’s index for the Euro zone by 1.6 to 112.6 this month, reflecting a reducing market optimism towards the manufacturing, service and retail sectors in the region.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.46% to $64.85 per barrel while market participants await inventory data with expectation towards the U.S. crude stockpiles to continue its expansion following recent ramp up in domestic output. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.86% to $1346.68 a troy ounce following recent lift in the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
00:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:00 | NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) | -19.0 | – | -20.0 |
| 15:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 10.8 | 10.7 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.5% | 2.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.3% | 2.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Goods Trade Balance (Feb) | -75.26B | -74.10B | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -4.7% | 2.1% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.622M | 1.200M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -1.693M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following breaking resistance level at 1.4130. MACD histogram that shows increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.4200.
Resistance level: 1.4200, 1.4250
Support level: 1.4130, 1.4100
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following rebound from support level at 1.2380. MACD signal line that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the pair to extend higher if breakout at the resistance level at 1.2420 is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2420, 1.2460
Support level: 1.2380, 1.2350
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following gaining its support at 105.30. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 105.80, 106.10
Support level: 105.30, 104.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher after rebound from support level at 64.60. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards the resistance level at 65.25.
Resistance level: 65.25, 66.25
Support level: 64.60, 64.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher after rebound from support level at 1342.80. Golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1350.20.
Resistance level: 1350.20, 1354.90
Support level: 1342.80, 1338.10
270318 Daily Analysis
27 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback falls despite easing US-China tension.
Greenback extended losses against its major peers by 0.48% to 88.63 as of writing despite an easing geopolitical tension in regard to trade war between the world’s two largest economies – U.S. and China. Overnight, a negotiation has started in private between the two parties in seeking a mutually agreeable solution to reduce the trade deficit gap up to $100 billion. Moreover, China has been reported to consider petition by the U.S. to reduce Chinese tariffs on U.S. automobiles while encouraging its people to purchase more U.S. semiconductors as well as approving American companies a greater access to China’s financial sector. All in all, Greenback remained at its bearish side following a rally in the other major currencies especially Pound Sterling. GBP/USD rose 0.79% to $1.4227 amid ongoing optimistic sentiment by market participants following a smooth Brexit- transition deal while a robust UK wage growth added more positive vibes towards another rate hike during Bank of England (BoE)’s meeting minutes in May.
In the commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.33 cents to $65.70 per barrel following profit taking by traders while a rise in domestic oil rigs added worries towards growing U.S. output. Likewise, gold price declined by 0.14% to $1352.57 a troy ounce following an ease in US-China trade war.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:00 | AUD – HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -2.1% | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 130.8 | 131.2 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.739M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following retracement from trend line of ascending channel. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards the support level at 1.4200.
Resistance level: 1.4250, 1.4340
Support level: 1.4200, 1.4130
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher prior gaining its support above the trend line of descending triangle. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.2510.
Resistance level: 1.2510, 1.2630
Support level: 1.2210, 1.1970
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 105.20 and the pair is currently testing the next resistance level at 105.60. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the descending trend line if breakout at the current level is successful.
Resistance level: 105.60, 106.50
Support level: 105.20, 104.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 65.25. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 66.25.
Resistance level: 66.25, 67.45
Support level: 65.25, 64.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1354.75. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1354.75, 1365.45
Support level: 1344.50, 1335.00
260318 Weekly Analysis
26 March 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: March 26 – 30
Market Review (Forex): March 19 – 23
Dollar index extended its losses during late American trading session last Friday as investors flock to safe-haven over the backdrop of heightened political and economic uncertainty from Washington. The index plunged 0.42% while ended the week at around 89.48 against a basket of six major currencies.
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs upon $50 billion worth of Chinese imports in order to curb high trade deficit among both countries while punishing China’s unfair seizure of US intellectual property. In retaliation, China announced that they are planning to enact tariff on a list of 128 US goods which amounts to $3 billion. The exchanges between two countries has sparked worries in the market as it may lead to a global trade war with no benefits for either end.
Likewise, selling pressure was catalyzed further following Trump’s threat to veto the $1.3 trillion spending bill that was passed last Friday as it does not include funding for the border wall near Mexico nor the deal with 800,000 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients. However, losses were limited after Trump reportedly signed the bill albeit being displeased to do so.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY tumbled down 0.51% to 104.74 due to rising demand for safe-haven assets as risk in the financial market arises.
EUR/USD
Euro rose 0.41% while ended the week around $1.2352 against the US dollar.
GBP/USD
Pairing of GBP/USD extended gains by 0.24% to $1.4131 following news that the European Union has agreed to adopt a negotiation stance with regards to future trade relationship with the UK after Brexit.
Market Review (Commodities): March 19 – 23
GOLD
Gold price rallied to its highest level in more than a month following strong safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tension between US and China that may spark global trade war in the near future. Price of the yellow metal skyrocketed 1.37% while closing the week at around $1,347.23 a troy ounce.
The world’s two largest economics appeared on the edge of an impasse as US imposes tariffs upon $60 billion worth of Chinese imports in order to reduce rising trade deficit and to punish the latter for “stealing” US intellectual properties.
In retaliation, China is considering enacting similar measures upon $3 billion of US imports which may see 15% duty and 25% tariff on certain products. Further supporting the safe-haven assets was a large sell-off in the greenback as investors fear a trade war could negatively impact the US economy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price extended its gains sharply amid news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia is considering a move to extend their production cut into 2019. Price of the precious commodity rose 2.56% while ended the week at one-month high of $65.75 per barrel.
According to the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, he postulates that OPEC members will need to continue their coordination with Russia and other non-OPEC members in restraining supplies into 2019 to reduce global oversupply glut. Prior, OPEC has introduced measures to cut daily crude output by 1.8 million barrels per day in hopes to prop up global oil prices. The pact which began in January 2017 is set to expire at the end of this year.
However, further upside on the commodity were limited following rising crude output from the United States which has climbed to a record high of 10.4 million barrels per day last week. Thus far, the United States has already surpassed Saudi Arabia in production as the second largest global producer while they are expected to overtake Russia as the top producer by late 2018. Rising production from the US may undermine OPEC’s effort in rebalancing global oil demand and supply.
Weekly Outlook: March 26 – 30
For the week ahead, investors will place their attention upon the latest revision of GDP from US, UK and Canada in order to gauge respective countries’ economic performance. Likewise, secondary data from the US such as Consumer Confidence and Sentiment will be sidelined that may shed some light on consumer’s behavior and future spending patterns.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: March 26 – 30
| Monday, March 26 |
Data NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Feb) GBP – Gross Mortgage Approvals
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, March 27 |
Data AUD – HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
Events USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks USD – FOMC Member Mester Speaks USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
|
| Wednesday, March 28 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Apr) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) USD – Goods Trade Balance (Feb) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, March 29 |
Data GBP – Nationwide HPI (MoM) EUR – German Unemployment Change (Mar) EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Mar) GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q4) EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jan) CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Feb) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
|
|
Friday, March 30
|
Data CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count JPY – Household Spending (YoY) JPY – Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Mar) JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)
Events USD – FOMC Member Harker Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: March 26 – 30
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index extended its losses following prior retracement from the strong resistance level at 90.00. MACD histogram which has recently formed a death cross signal suggests the index to extend its losses towards the support level of 88.40.
Resistance level: 90.00, 90.95
Support level: 89.40, 88.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD extended gains following prior closure above the resistance level at 1.3970. MACD histogram and both MA lines which illustrate bullish bias suggests the pair to advance further up. However, a close above the threshold of 1.4210 is required to further clarify such bias.
Resistance level: 1.4210, 1.4390
Support level: 1.3970, 1.3800
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY sheds its prior gains following a retrace from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line and MACD histogram which portrays bearish bias suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of support level at 103.35.
Resistance level: 105.45, 105.95
Support level: 103.35, 100.60
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel while recently consolidates in between the range of 1.2270 and 1.2400. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate further upside bias towards the overbought region may suggest the pair to advance further up in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction is still subject to the descending channel formation unless a breakout occurs at either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price rose sharply following prior closure and breakout from the top level of descending triangle. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of golden cross may suggests further extension of gains. However, a close above the strong resistance level of 1353.70 is required to acquire further verification.
Resistance level: 1353.70, 1366.00
Support level: 1340.00, 1312.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended gains following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards may suggest the commodity price to advance further up after successfully breaking the strong resistance level at 66.65.
Resistance level: 66.65, 69.10
Support level: 63.75, 60.80
210318 Daily Analysis
21 March 2018 Daily Analysis
FOMC on-eyed; Euro plunged amid fears over trade war.
Dollar index rose against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.47% to 89.86 as of writing following a highly optimistic market sentiment towards the U.S. Federal Reserve to have their first rate hike of the year during its FOMC meeting. Market participants will also have their eyes on the release of the Summary of Economic Projection to gain further indication on inflation, unemployment and economic growth forecast in the region. According to the Fed’s dot plot in December 2017, the median forecast for rate hike was only three times. As recent statement among the Fed members including the newly appointed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has turned hawkish, the prospect for rate hike has increased to four times. On the other hand, EUR/USD was down 0.49% to $1.2254 after a report showing deteriorating German economic sentiment amid fears over a possible trade war following implementation of Trump’s tariff plan.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 2.2% to its three-week highs, currently traded at $63.75 per barrel following U.S. sanctions against the Iran which could lead to plausible supply disruptions. Otherwise, gold price was traded steadily around $1311.50 a troy ounce while investors are looking forward to the release of FOMC statement.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Vernal Equinox
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Economic Projection
02:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Statement
02:30 (Thu) USD FOMC Press Conference
04:00 (Thu) NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jan) | 2.5% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | -7.2K | -3.1K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.4% | 4.4% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Mar) | 10 | 8 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Feb) | 5.38M | 5.41M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.022M | 3.672M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -6.271M | – | – |
| 02:00 | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.75% | – |
| 04:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.3980. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to trade higher towards the resistance level at 1.4020.
Resistance level: 1.4020, 1.4060
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3950
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.2240. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to extend higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2290, 1.2300
Support level: 1.2240, 1.2210
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 106.40. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 106.60, 106.85
Support level: 106.40, 106.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 63.15. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the next resistance level at 63.95.
Resistance level: 63.95, 64.50
Support level: 63.15, 62.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1309.70. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards the resistance level at 1314.30.
Resistance level: 1314.30, 1317.40
Support level: 1309.70, 1303.80
200318 Daily Analysis
20 March 2018 Daily Analysis
A possible smooth Brexit deal pressures on dollar.
Dollar index slipped by 0.38% to 89.38 as of writing following agreements made between the United Kingdom and the European Union regarding the Brexit transition deal. Despite investors’ optimistic sentiment towards the Federal Reserve to increase their interest rate by a quarter point during its FOMC meeting this week, Greenback has failed to hold on its ground after the UK and the EU published a draft withdrawal bill that revealed a complete agreement regarding financial settlement and citizens’ rights for both parties. The release of the news has drawn GBP/USD to surge by 0.65% to $1.4032 as it has raised market optimism over a smoother exit for the UK from EU. On the contrary, EUR/USD rose 0.35% to $1.2340 after a few European Central Bank (ECB) members who were previously in their dovish stands have warmed to the idea of monetary policy tightening.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained traded below the key level 62.50, currently traded at $62.32 as rising U.S. output and a ramp up in Saudi Arabia’s diesel and gasoline exports added to fears over crude oversupply. Likewise, gold price was traded steadily at $1316.39 a troy ounce while investors await release of Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
08:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – House Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 3.0% | 2.8% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | 17.8 | 13.1 | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment | 29.3 | 28.1 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.156M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.4020 and the pair is currently testing to stand on its ground on the 50.0 Fibonacci level. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if candlestick closes above the said level.
Resistance level: 1.4100, 1.4200
Support level: 1.4020, 1.3950
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.2300. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the resistance by 200-MA line is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2350, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2250
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 106.30 and support level at 105.80. A lack of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair in nearer term.
Resistance level: 106.30, 107.10
Support level: 105.80, 105.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following its failure to break support level at 62.00. However, MACD signal line that shows a death-cross would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 62.50, 62.90
Support level: 62.00, 61.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1317.15. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term losses towards the next support level at 1314.15.
Resistance level: 1317.15, 1321.55
Support level: 1314.15, 1310.85
190318 Weekly Analysis
19 March 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: March 19 – 23
Market Review (Forex): March 12 – 16
Greenback tacks on to its gains last Friday as investors heeds upon optimistic economic data and easing political turmoil in Washington. The dollar index rose 0.05% while closing the week at 90.19 against a basket of six major currencies. In the economic front, although building permits and housing starts shows significant decline with 1.298 million and 1.236 million respectively, investors sentiment was refreshed following a better-than-expected data with regards to employment and future economic outlook.
Based on a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTs Job Openings shows a significant improvement with 6.312 million jobs available versus economist forecast of only 5.890 million jobs. Likewise, Michigan Consumer Sentiment portrays an improvement in consumers prospect towards the economy with 102.0 versus 99.3 seen. A higher consumer sentiment may reflect more willingness in spending and may contribute to higher retail sales while propping up regional inflationary pressure.
In the political front, President Donald Trump and his chief of staff John Kelly has allegedly reached a “truce” following talks held on Thursday. Prior to this, CBS News reported that Kelly has suggested to leave the White House due to conflict of interest with the President. Such news has eased investors’ concern over yet another political turmoil in the Trump administration following Rex Tillerson termination last week.
Building Permits
—– Forecast
Building permits for the month of February came in with lesser-than-expected reading of 1.298 million.
Housing Starts
—– Forecast
Housing starts misses economist expectation with only 1.236 million.
JOLTs Job Openings
—– Forecast
Job openings were higher than expected with 6.312 million jobs offered.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
—– Forecast
Consumer sentiment improved for the month of March from 99.7 to 102.0.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.31% to 106.01 during late Friday trading.
EUR/USD
Euro extended losses by 0.12% to $1.2290 after ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a rather dovish speech on Wednesday.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD rose 0.04% while ended the week around $1.3942.
Market Review (Commodities): March 12 – 16
GOLD
Gold price extended its losses last Friday as political turmoil in Washington eases while investors ponder upon a higher chance for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve as soon as next week. Price of the precious metal tumbled down 0.18% while last quoted at $1,313.86 a troy ounce.
Gold prices set for a fourth consecutive weekly loss as investors wary of buying the dips in the precious metal ahead of US Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting which will start on 20th March next week. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, traders are currently pricing in with a 93% chance for a 25-basis points rate hike to a range of 1.50%-1.75% on 21st March.
While many believes that the Fed’s rate hike has been priced in, the central bank’s rate hike projection for the year or to be known as dot-plot may be shifted upwards next week – pointing towards a faster pace of rate hikes. Such bullish moves may send further upside on the greenback while pushing the precious metal further down.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled higher last Friday while recording a second consecutive weekly gain as investors turn their attention towards growing global crude demand which may help to outweigh pressure from strong US production. Price of the black commodity skyrocketed 1.73% or $1.06 to $62.26 during late Friday trading.
In a monthly reported released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the agency has revised its global demand growth outlook for year 2018 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day; significantly bullish when compared to prior. The agency also noted that changes in the trade policy may have a negative impact on oil production which may slowdown the ongoing US production which has attain 10.4 million barrels per day.
However, overall upside on the commodity remains limited after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released a rather bearish forecast of non-OPEC supply. In their report, OPEC postulate that supplies from non-OPEC members could increase to around 1.6 million barrels per day for 2018, significantly higher as compared to previous reading of 1.4 million barrels per day. Otherwise, OPEC reiterated that its effort to cut supply will be continued in order to help rebalanced the global oil prices.
Weekly Outlook: March 19 – 23
For the week ahead, investors will be paying their attention to US Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting which may revise their dot-plot projection for the year. Such revision may catalyze higher volatility in the market specifically US dollar and safe-haven gold.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: March 19 – 23
| Monday, March 19 |
Data JPY – Trade Balance (Feb) EUR- Trade Balance (Jan)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
|
| Tuesday, March 20 |
Data AUD – House Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan)
Events AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes
|
| Wednesday, March 21 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Mar) USD – Existing Home Sales (Feb) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, March 22 |
Data USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision AUD – Employment Change (Feb) AUD – Participation Rate (Feb) AUD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Mar) GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) USD – Services PMI (Mar)
Events USD – FOMC Economic Projection USD – FOMC Statement USD – FOMC Press Conference NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement EUR – ECB Economic Bulletin GBP – MPC Asset Purchase Facility Vote
|
|
Friday, March 23
|
Data JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) USD – New Home Sales (Feb) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: March 19 – 23
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 89.40. Such price action suggests further bullish bias while the index is required to close above the resistance near 90.00 in order to further extend its bullish approach.
Resistance level: 90.00, 90.95
Support level: 89.40, 88.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending triangle. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.3970, 1.4210
Support level: 1.3800, 1.3600
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the strong support level at 105.95. MACD histogram which shows some pickup in upward momentum may suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after successfully closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70
Support level: 105.95, 105.45
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of downward signal and momentum may suggest the pair to advance further down after successfully breaking the strong support level at 1.2270.
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a descending triangle while currently testing at the strong support level of 1312.00. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests further bearish bias. However, a close below the strong support at 1312.00 is required to attain further verification.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70
Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. A break above may suggest a change in trend direction to extend its upside bias thereafter. Otherwise, a retrace will suggests the commodity price to be remained under pressure and subject to the narrowing triangle formation.
Resistance level: 63.75, 66.65
Support level: 60.80, 59.00
160318 Daily Analysis
16 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull accelerated following optimistic job data!
Dollar index was traded higher against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, last quoted up 0.40% to 90.01 following an upbeat labor market and easing of market fears over global trade wars. Overnight, despite the release of mixed manufacturing index data, the Greenback has successfully gained on its foot after the U.S. Department of Labor reported a decline in initial jobless claims by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000, beating the expected reading of 230,000. In addition, an optimistic market sentiment towards rate hike by Federal Reserve next week provided further support to the dollar bull. On the contrary, GBP/USD fell 0.19% to $1.3915 amid flaring of Brexit-related issues when the trio – United Kingdom, European Commission and Irish government are being reported to hold talks on the Irish-border issue which could resist smooth Brexit negotiations.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded steadily within key level at $61.10 after the International Energy Agengy (IEA) raised its forecast for oil demand to increase from 97.8 million bpd to 99.3 million bpd this year, but added that the commodity could be supplied at a faster rate. Otherwise, gold price extended losses by 0.20% to $1314.16 a troy ounce following dollar that regained its bullish strength yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) | -6.6% | -6.6% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Feb) | 1.377M | 1.330M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb) | 9.7% | 6.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.3% | -0.9% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) | 5.811M | 5.850M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 99.7 | 99.6 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 796 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1.3950. Formation of engulfing candlestick pattern and MACD histogram that portrays ongoing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.3910.
Resistance level: 1.3950, 1.3980
Support level: 1.3910, 1.3860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking trend line of symmetry triangle. The pair is currently testing the support level at 1.2300. MACD histogram that portrays ongoing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2350, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2250
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following its failure to break resistance by 200-MA line. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 105.90.
Resistance level: 106.40, 106.90
Support level: 105.90, 105.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded in consolidation within a descending triangle. An absence of obvious signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout before entering any trade.
Resistance level: 62.00, 63.60
Support level: 60.50, 58.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1316.20 and the safe-haven asset is currently retesting its previous low. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest gold price to extend its gains if it successfully breaks the 38.2 Fibonacci level.
Resistance level: 1316.20, 1321.90
Support level: 1309.60, 1300.80
150318 Daily Analysis
15 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar calms following absence of catalysts.
Dollar index was traded steadily against its major peers while last quoted at 89.60 as of writing following release of economic data that displayed mixed results while political and trade uncertainties continued to weigh on dollar. Overnight, the Labor Department reported its producer price index that rose 0.2% last month, slightly better than the expected reading of 0.1%. However, the upbeat data has failed to lift the Greenback following release of U.S. retail sales data that recorded its third consecutive monthly decline by 0.1%, thus raising market fears over a potential slowdown in the growth of U.S. economy during the first quarter. In addition, concerns over political and trade uncertainties were heightened after U.S. President Trump has been reported to impose tariffs on $60 billion of Chinese imports mainly on the technology and telecommunication sectors. On the contrary, EUR/USD fell 0.14% to $1.2380 following dovish remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi yesterday. During the meeting minutes, Draghi has mentioned that monetary stimulus would only be removed if there is more evidence that inflation is moving nearer to its target of 2%.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.43% to $61.02 per barrel following a massive draw in gasoline inventories by 6.271 million barrels while shadowing a large increase in crude stockpiles. Likewise, gold price extended gains by 0.20% to $1326.80 a troy ounce while dollar was still being pressured by bearish forces.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
17:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 16:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb) | 1.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 231K | 230K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) | 13.10 | 15.00 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | 25.8 | 23.2 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Mar) | 25.2 | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | 10.7K | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, D1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking trend line of descending triangle. Successful closure of the candlestick above the trend line and MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.4070.
Resistance level: 1.4070, 1.4340
Support level: 1.3780, 1.3590
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after rebound from support level at 1.2350. MACD signal line that displays a golden-cross would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.2400.
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2430
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2300
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower after breaking support level at 106.40. The pair is currently testing the next support level at 105.90. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 106.40, 106.90
Support level: 105.90, 105.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following rebound from support level at 60.50. MACD signal line that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the pair to extend short-term gains towards the trend line of descending triangle.
Resistance level: 62.00, 63.60
Support level: 60.50, 58.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following rebound from support by 200-MA line. The safe-haven asset price is currently testing the resistance level at 1326.80. Golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest gold price to trade higher if breakout at the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1309.60
140318 Daily Analysis
14 March 2018 Daily Analysis
U.S. political turmoil spooked the Greenback.
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.29% to 89.63 as of writing, spooked by inflation data and political turmoil in U.S. Overnight, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported an increase of 0.2% in the month of February while the year-on-year increase in the CPI remains unchanged at 1.8%. The lack of bullish momentum in the inflation data has eased investors’ expectation towards Fed to adopt a more aggressive rate hike. In addition, the Greenback was further pressured after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was dismissed by President Donald Trump following failure of both parties to reconcile their differing views on the Iran nuclear deal. On the contrary, GBP/USD rose 0.55% to $1.3981 following an upbeat spring budget statement given by UK Chancellor Philip Hammond, in which forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2018 has revised up to 1.5% versus the previous 1.4%.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was settled lower by 1.1% to $60.78 per barrel following market’s negative sentiment towards rising U.S. production that could offset OPEC and non-OPEC’s effort to cut global supplies. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.49% to $1326.11 a troy ounce as supported by a turmoil in the Trump administration.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
07:50 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | -2.3% | – | 0.2% |
| 10:00 | CNY – Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Feb) | 7.2% | 7.0% | – |
| 10:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) | 6.2% | 6.3% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | -0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.0% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.6% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 2.408M | 2.718M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -0.788M | -1.201M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance by 200-MA line and the pair is currently testing the resistance level at 1.3980. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.3980, 1.4050
Support level: 1.3890, 1.3800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.2380. However, MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2440, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2380, 1.2340
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior gaining its support at 106.40. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 106.90.
Resistance level: 106.90, 107.20
Support level: 106.40, 105.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher within descending triangle following rebound from support level at 60.50. A lack of obvious indication from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the commodity price.
Resistance level: 62.00, 63.60
Support level: 60.50, 58.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior its failure to break resistance level at 1326.80. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade lower towards the support by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1309.60
130318 Daily Analysis
13 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar dampened over tariff threats.
Dollar index was traded lower against its major peers by 0.12% to 89.82 as of writing following ongoing investors’ concerns over the potential impact on the U.S. economy after the implementation of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports by President Donald Trump. Overnight, Greenback has failed to stand on its ground amid fears that the European Union and Japan could retaliate after expressing their reservations about the tariffs. In addition, market participants’ sentiment towards Federal Reserve to adjust its rate hikes from three times to four times was dented following reports of wage growth on last Friday that rose less than the expected reading of 0.2% rise, last stood at only 0.1%. On the contrary, EUR/USD rose by 0.18% to $1.2337 following continuing weakness of the Greenback. However, the gains of the single common currency were limited after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi downplayed a decision to drop the easing bias while warning that increasing protectionism could pose a threat to the outlook for economic growth in the European Zone.
In the commodities market, crude oil price settled lower by 0.26% to $61.19 per barrel following fears over recent uptick crude prices above $60 could encourage U.S. shale producers to ramp up their output, undermining OPEC and non-OPEC’s effort to reduce global oversupply. Otherwise, gold price rose by 0.35% to $1324.02 a troy ounce following ongoing weakness of the dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 GBP Spring Forecast Statement
22:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Feb) | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| 12:30 | JPY – Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) | -0.2% | -0.2% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 29.3 | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – CPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 5.661M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior gaining its support at 1.3850. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend higher if breakout at the current resistance level at 1.3910 is successful.
Resistance level: 1.3910, 1.3960
Support level: 1.3850, 1.3800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.2310. MACD histogram that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout above resistance level at 1.2345 and 200-MA line is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2385
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2280
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower prior its failure to break resistance level at 106.80. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 106.00.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.80
Support level: 106.00, 105.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 61.30 and the commodity price is currently retesting the previous low. Death-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest crude oil price to extend its losses if candlesticks successfully closes below the 38.2 Fibonacci level.
Resistance level: 61.30, 62.20
Support level: 60.10, 58.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1316.20. Formation of pin bar candlestick and MACD signal line that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1326.80.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1309.60
120318 Weekly Analysis
12 March 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: March 12 – 16
Market Review (Forex): March 5 – 9
Greenback struggled to extend its recovery last Friday following mixed sentiment given off by the latest release of Nonfarm Payrolls report. The dollar index recorded a loss of 0.08% to 90.10 during late Friday trading.
According to the US Labor Department, the economy has created 313,000 jobs in the month of February, well above economist expectation for only 200,000 jobs. The data supersedes January reading of 239,000 jobs. However, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, missing economist forecast for a decline of 0.1% to 4.0%.
However, most of the attention remained focused on the Average Hourly Earnings – one of the key contributor to domestic inflation pressure which could lead to a faster pace of interest rate hike throughout the year.
For the month of February, Average Hourly Earnings rose only 0.1%, missing economist expectation for a 0.2% rise. Investors cut their bullish bets on the dollar as many had expected wage growth to rise at a faster pace following January’s strong reading. Likewise, the dollar received further bearish pressure following a surge in Canadian dollar after a sharp uptick in oil price.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
—– Forecast
US Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of February came in at 313K versus 200K seen.
US Unemployment Rate
—– Forecast
US Unemployment rate remained constant at 4.1%
US Average Hourly Earnings
—– Forecast
US Average Hourly Earnings came in at 0.1%, missing economist expectation of 0.2%.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY extended gains by 0.56% to 106.81 following dovish tone adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). BoJ reiterates that the central bank would patiently continue their aggressive stimulus program in order to achieve 2% target of inflation, hence dialing down market’s bullish bet on the safe-haven Yen.
EUR/USD
Pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% while closing the week at around $1.2308.
GBP/USD
Pair of GBP/USD extended gains by 0.33% to $1.3854.
Market Review (Commodities): March 5 – 9
GOLD
Gold price received some bullish support during late Friday trading session as US dollar fails to garner bullish bets over the mixed bagged Nonfarm Payrolls report. Price of the precious metal rose $1.51 or 0.11% while ending the week at $1,323.49 a troy ounce. Initial reaction on the NFP report was rather positive after US Department of Labor reported that the economy generated 313,000 jobs, exceeding economist forecast for 200,000.
However, traders cut off their bullish bets after Average Hourly Earnings came in lower than expected with only 0.1% – signaling a slower pickup in inflationary pressure and may hinder US Federal Reserve from hiking interest rate at a faster pace. Otherwise, current upside on the precious metal remains limited as geopolitical risk in the Korean Peninsula subside following South’s announcement to hold an inter-Korean summit which will address the ongoing nuclear threats from the North.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price rose sharply during last Friday as traders cheered over possible slowdown in the US oil output. Price of the black commodity skyrocketed $1.84 or 3.05% while closing the week at $62.18 per barrel.
According to the US oilfield service provider Baker Hughes, the number of active drilling rigs in the US fell by four to a total of 796. The decrease helped to ease investors’ concern over rising US oil production which was large driven by shale that has jumped to a record high of almost 10.4 million barrels per day.
Also supporting the oil prices were a weaker greenback following data which shows a slowdown in wage growth – one of the key factors that may lead to higher inflation and subsequently faster pace of interest rate hike. Evidently, the depreciation of greenback may help to increase crude oil’s appeal to investors as it is cheaper for those whom uses other currency.
Weekly Outlook: March 12 – 16
For the week ahead, investors will keep a close eye on the latest revision of CPI and Retail Sales from the United States in order to attain further clues with regards to the pace of interest rate hike throughout the year.
As for oil traders, they will be focusing on the monthly report released by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) to acquire further signal with regards to global oil supply and demand as well as their forecast on the industry for the near future.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: March 12 – 16
| Monday, March 12 |
Data JPY – BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q1)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, March 13 |
Data AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Feb) JPY – Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) USD – CPI (MoM) (Feb)
Events GBP – Spring Forecast Statement CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
|
| Wednesday, March 14 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Mar) CNY – Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Feb) CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Feb) EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) USD – PPI (MoM) (Feb) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events JPY – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes CrudeOIL – OPEC Monthly Report
|
| Thursday, March 15 |
Data NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) USD – Philly Fed Employment (Mar) CAD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Events CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment CrudeOIL – IEA Monthly Report
|
|
Friday, March 16
|
Data JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) USD – Building Permits (Feb) USD – Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb) CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Jan) USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jan) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: March 12 – 16
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the minor support near 89.40. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. First target will be focusing on the support level at 90.00.
Resistance level: 90.95, 91.70
Support level: 90.00, 89.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remans traded within a descending triangle following prior reentry into the formation. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the upper level of the triangle. Otherwise, long-term trend direction can only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1.3970, 1.4210
Support level: 1.3800, 1.3600
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY halts its bearish descend following prior breakout from the downward trend line. Recent closure above the 20-MA line (red) while coupled with upward signal from the MACD histogram suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70
Support level: 105.95, 105.45
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests further bearish bias. Thus, a close below the strong support level at 1.2270 would provide further clarification.
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a descending triangle following prior retracement from the top level. Both MA lines which has formed a death cross signal suggests further bearish bias for the commodity price. Hence, it is suggested to extend its losses in short-term, towards the strong support level of 1312.00. Otherwise, long-term trend direction can only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70
Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate a rebound signal prior to the oversold region suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term, towards the upper level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 63.75, 66.65
Support level: 60.80, 59.00
090318 Daily Analysis
09 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Draghi downplayed ECB’s decision; Dollar lifted by Dudley’s hawkish statement.
EUR/USD reversed gains by 0.08% to $1.2300 as of writing following a downplay decision by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi to drop a pledge in extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) program if required. The statement has been interpreted as they could be nearing a move towards normalizing their monetary policy measures. However, the pair tumbles later on as President Draghi downplayed the ECB’s decision by simply calling the decision to drop the easing bias as a ‘backward looking’ and ‘unanimous’ move. Thus, Euro tumbled while markets were convinced that the ECB was not on the verge of turning hawkish. On the contrary, dollar index found its support with gains of 0.11% to 90.22 following hawkish comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. He expressed optimism by stating that ‘gradual’ rate hikes could mean four instead of three times prior to current developing strength of the U.S. economy, accelerating wage growth and higher-than-anticipated CPI inflation. His bullish view has drawn market participants’ attention away from the ongoing talk of trade wars as caused by President Trump’s tariff plan.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded lower by 2.3% to $60.37 per barrel following concerns over soaring output from the U.S. that has recorded a rise of 23% to 10.37 million barrels per day. Likewise, gold price was down by 0.17% following dollar that has successfully gained its support.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
01:40(Sat) USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (MoM) (Jan) | -2.5% | -0.4% | 2.7% |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Feb) | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) | -0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Jan) | 21.4B | 21.1B | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Trade Balance (Jan) | -5.18B | -4.10B | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) | 200K | 204K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Participation Rate (Feb) | 62.7% | – | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 4.0% | 4.1% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Feb) | -88.0K | 17.5K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 5.9% | 5.9% | – |
| 02:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 800 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following its failure to break resistance level at 1.3900. The pair is currently testing the support level at 1.3790. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest GBPUSD to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.3900, 1.4000
Support level: 1.3790, 1.3650
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support by 200-MA line and support level at 1.2310. The pair is currently testing the next support level at 1.2300. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2340, 1.2380
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2270
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 105.50. The pair is currently testing the resistance level at 106.80. MACD histogram that shows increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend higher if closure of candlestick above the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.80
Support level: 105.50, 103.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following rebound from support level at 60.20. Formation of pin bar candlestick and positive divergence by MACD histogram would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 60.80.
Resistance level: 60.80, 61.80
Support level: 60.20, 58.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support by 200-MA line. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1316.20.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1309.60
080318 Daily Analysis
08 March 2018 Daily Analysis
ECB in focus, Trump’s trade rhetoric tumbles dollar.
Dollar index was traded lower against a basket of major currencies by 0.11% to 89.55 following ongoing market concerns over imposition of new U.S. import tariffs. Despite growing pressure from political allies, President Trump mentioned that he would not back down from the measures as a recommitment to his nationalist trade agenda. Hence, Trump’s trade rhetoric have sparked fears among market participants in which retaliation from U.S. trade partners including China and the European Union, resulting in reducing their holdings of U.S. assets. On the contrary, EUR/USD was traded within consolidation near key level $1.2400 while investors await ECB Press Conference due tonight. It is widely expected that the ECB would keep interest rates and its asset purchases of $30bn per month unchanged. On that account, investors will be on-eyed towards delivery of speech by President Draghi to grasp further indication on the economy in European zone.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.31% to $61.34 per barrel following EIA that reported U.S. crude inventories which has risen by 2.4 million barrels last week, much lesser than the forecast reading to increase 2.7 million barrel. Likewise, gold price rose 0.04% to $1326.47 a troy ounce following dollar weakness.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
00:00 (Fri) CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Feb) | 20.35B | -8.50B | – |
| 15:00 | German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 3.8% | -1.9% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 21:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Feb) | 216.2K | 219.0K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 210K | 216K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Jan) | 4.8% | 2.0% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.3890. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before extending its gains.
Resistance level: 1.3990, 1.4050
Support level: 1.3890, 1.3790
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior gaining its support at 1.2390. However, MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 1.2450, 1.2540
Support level: 1.2390, 1.2340
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher after rebound from support level at 105.30. MACD signal line that portrays a hidden positive divergence would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 106.75.
Resistance level: 106.75, 107.80
Support level: 105.30, 103.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following its rebound from support level at 60.80. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before extending its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 61.80, 62.50
Support level: 60.80, 60.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support by 200-MA and it is currently testing the resistance level at 1326.80. MACD histogram that displays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains if breakout at the previous low is successful.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1308.60
070318 Daily Analysis
07 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Trade jitters hit on dollar.
Dollar index fell against its major peers by 0.40% to 89.44 as of writing following increased concern by market participants that economic adviser Gary Cohn could resign from the White House if President Trump decides to proceed with his plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium. The former Wall Street banker was known as a defender against protectionist forces within the Trump administration. Thus, his leaving could cast greater fears over tariff hawks. Moreover, risk sentiment in the market subsided on yesterday following reports that North and South Korea have agreed to hold a summit next month, a sign of easing tension in the peninsula. The report has spurred higher risk taking among investors, shifting their focus towards other major currencies while selling off US dollar in relation to trade war risk arising from Washington. On the contrary, EUR/USD was traded higher by 0.07% to $1.2412 as of writing following speculation that European Central Bank (ECB) could drop its easing bias at a policy meeting this week.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 3 cents to $62.15 per barrel following increased market sentiment towards Energy Information Administration (EIA) to show an increase in crude stockpiles by about 2.7 million barrels. Likewise, gold price rose 0.10% to $1334.90 following an ongoing dollar weakness.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
20:30 GBP Annual Budget Release
21:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
21:20 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
23:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Feb) | -0.6% | 0.4% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) | 234K | 194K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) | -0.1% | -0.1% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Jan) | -3.19B | -2.50B | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.019M | – | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 2.483M | -0.190M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher after it breaks resistance level at 1.3860. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.4070.
Resistance level: 1.4070, 1.4370
Support level: 1.3860, 1.3750
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following successful breakout at resistance level 1.2390. Arrangement of bullish candlesticks and MACD histogram that displays ongoing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.2450.
Resistance level: 1.2450, 1.2540
Support level: 1.2390, 1.2340
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 105.20. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the previous low.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.80
Support level: 105.20, 103.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following failure to break resistance by 200-MA line. MACD histogram that displays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses if breakout at the support level 61.80 is successful.
Resistance level: 63.20, 64.60
Support level: 61.80, 60.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following breakout at resistance level 1335.20. However, MACD histogram that shows diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses if breakout at its previous high is successful.
Resistance level: 1345.00, 1354.50
Support level: 1335.20, 1326.80
060318 Daily Analysis
06 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback on the verge of falling?
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.17% to 89.93 following investors that took profit ahead major release of meeting minutes by other central banks and Non-farm Payroll this week. Overnight, the Greenback achieved minor gains of 0.04% following House Speaker Paul Ryan who urged President Donald Trump to dismiss his proposal on aluminium and steel tariffs to prevent breakout of a possible trade war. Overall, investors will be on-eyed towards statement released by the central banks as well as the NFP event this week to grasp further indication on the strength of the Greenback. On the contrary, EUR/USD rose 0.09% to $1.2358 following an ease in geopolitical tension when Angela Merkel successfully secured her position as a chancellor for the fourth term after Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) supported a coalition deal with conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 2.16% to $62.72 per barrel, buoyed by a decline in crude stockpiles by 600K at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, thus suggesting healthy domestic economic growth to continue supporting crude demand. Likewise, gold price rose 0.36% to $1322.82 a troy ounce following recent weakness of the dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
20:30 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:01 | GBP – BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Feb) | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 08:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 11:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 1.7% | -0.4% | – |
| 23:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Feb) | 55.2 | 56.3 | – |
| 05:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.933M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.3800. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.3915.
Resistance level: 1.3920, 1.4050
Support level: 1.3800, 1.3660
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.2310. The pair is currently testing the next resistance level at 1.2345. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if the current candlestick successfully closes above the said resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2390
Support level: 1.2310, 1.2280
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 105.25. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at resistance level 106.40 is successful.
Resistance level: 106.40, 107.10
Support level: 105.25, 103.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior gaining its support above the 200-MA line. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 63.25, 64.55
Support level: 61.80, 60.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support by 200-MA line. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade higher thus retesting the MA line.
Resistance level: 1326.80, 1335.20
Support level: 1316.20, 1308.50