Daily Analysis

18 March 2019                   Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar tumbled as economy rumbled.

Greenback extended its losses during mid-Asian trading session over the backdrop of soft economic data from the United States. Last Friday, a slew of weaker-than-expected data such as manufacturing output and New York factory activity has further cemented the expectation for Federal Reserve to strike a dovish stance this week. According to reports, US 10-year Treasury yields fell to as low as 2.580%, its lowest threshold since January 4^th. Likewise, Federal fund futures are currently pricing in at only 40% chance for a rate hike this year due to diminishing optimism towards US economy progression. Majority of investors expects the Fed to keep their interest rate unchanged while revealing a plan to end its balance sheet tapering during this week’s monetary policy meeting. Overall, market focus will be placed upon how dovish the Fed could get while risks surrounding the US economy such as trade war and global economic recession continues to increase. As of writing, the dollar index fell 0.12% to 95.88. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.36% to 0.7113. Australian dollar received higher demand in the market following weaker greenback while coupled with appreciating iron ore prices – one of Australia’s main exports.

As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.10% to $58.60 per barrel. Oil prices slipped on Monday amid market concerns over an economic downturn which may reduce global fuel consumption and its demand. Similarly, gold price fell by 0.25% to $1,299.00 a troy ounce following a shift in market focus towards riskier assets such as Australian dollar and Euro.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 95.90. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower following a successful close below 95.90.

Resistance level: 96.20, 96.55

Support level: 95.90, 95.70

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3240.

Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3170

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing near the resistance 1.1340. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retracement signal suggests the pair to be traded lower following a retrace from the target 1.1340.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1365

Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80

Support level: 111.45, 111.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.7100. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7120.

Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7155

Support level: 0.7100, 0.7075

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6910, 0.7020

Support level: 0.6795, 0.6650

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3345. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3300.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3370

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below 1.0040. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 58.85, 59.65

Support level: 58.00, 57.45

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1299.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after closing below 1299.00.

Resistance level: 1305.60, 1311.00

Support level: 1299.00, 1294.00

18 March 2019                   Morning Session Analysis

Greenback extend losses amid poor data and Brexit highlights.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies plunged by 0.30% before closing Friday’s market at 96.49 amid poor Industrial Production and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index data. With a slowdown in manufacturing index of 3.7 compared to 10.0 and poor factory output of 0.1% compared to 0.4%, investors shifted their portfolio towards riskier market mainly pound. Last week, UK Parliament undergo 3 important votes which resolved in the extend of 29^th March Brexit date and lawmakers are now struggling with UK Prime Minister Theresa May motion for a third vote towards her Brexit deal. With hard-Brexit out of the picture, investors are motivated into investing in the pound, extending the pair of GBP/USD gains by 0.03% to 1.3293.

For the commodities market, crude oil price retraced from its 3 months high by 0.15% to $58.43 per barrel. Recent efforts from OPEC glut cut and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran oil continues to push oil prices higher. Further boosting the oil market was low inventory data reported by API and EIA and also the reduction of 1 oil rig as reported by US Baker Hughes. Likewise, gold price extended its gains by 0.47% to $1302.23 per troy ounce following weak dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 96.40. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.15

Support level: 96.40, 96.05

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3250. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3350.

Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3475

Support level: 1.3250, 1.3180

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1340. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1295 in short term.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.75.MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 111.10.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10

Support level: 111.10, 110.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.7085. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7050 in short term.

Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130

Support level: 0.7050, 0.7005

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from its high levels. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6815.

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905

Support level: 0.6815, 0.6770

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3315. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3375.

Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3440

Support level: 1.3315, 1.3260

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.0025. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short term technical correction and rebound above the resistance level 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 0.9975, 0.9915

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent rebound from the MA line 20 (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.20.

Resistance level: 59.20, 61.25

Support level: 57.50, 55.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1305.65. However, due to lack of momentum from MACD, a breakout above the nearest resistance level or support level is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1305.65, 1315.05

Support level: 1299.15, 1289.35

15 March 2019                   Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback rebounds as sterling weakness lend strength.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six currency pairs have rebound after 4 consecutive days of decline following pound weakness that supported the demand of the dollar. Markets are slowly shifting their investment into greenback due to risk aversion. Following uncertainty in pound sterling caused by Brexit developments, such developments has sent the market into a frenzy. In recent developments, UK Parliament have voted in favor for Brexit Delay beyond March with the majority vote of 412 against 202. Market will remain focus on upcoming data and development of global headlines to determine the further sentiment of the greenback. Dollar index rose 0.03% to 96.70 as of writing. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell 0.08% to 111.57 as of writing although Bank Of Japan (BoJ) came in as expectedly dovish and maintain its key rates unchanged at -0.10%. Japanese yen received higher demand in the market after Reuters reported that North Korea is considering to suspend nuclear talks with the United States. Furthermore, it was stated that North Korean has no intention to yield to US demand while its leader Kim Jong Un is expected to make an official announcement on his position towards the US soon.

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains firm and rose 0.09% to $58.48 per barrel at the time of writing as productions cut led by OPEC with its allies and also sanction against Venezuela an Iran that could triggered a sign of emerging supply deficit in the first quarter of 2019, continues to grind higher the demand of the black commodity. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.11% to 1294.87 as of writing following greenback’s recovery.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.40.

Resistance level: 96.70, 97.20

Support level: 96.40, 96.10

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.3225. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3225, 1.3145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1315. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390

Support level: 1.1315, 1.1290

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.50.

Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35
Support level: 111.50, 111.15.

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7105. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7105.

Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7145

Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6830. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6875.

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6900

Support level: 0.6830, 0.6805

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3320. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 1.3320.

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3355

Support level: 1.3260, 1.3195

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0025. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 0.9985.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0065

Support level: 0.9985, 0.9930

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous channel top level at 57.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term toward the direction of 57.65.

Resistance level: 58.45, 61.25

Support level: 57.65, 55.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1292.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1299.30.

Resistance level: 1299.30, 1310.35

Support level: 1292.05, 1283.95

15 March 2019                   Morning Session Analysis

Cautious dollar-bulls as jobless claims rise.

Greenback halted its bearish decline after posting four consecutive days of losses as pound sterling enters into consolidation phase. Sterling bulls took a pause as investors digests the highly expected outcome with regards to recent Brexit developments. Earlier this morning, UK lawmakers have passed the motion to delay Article 50/Brexit deadline of 29^th March by with a majority votes of 412 versus 202. With strong backing from the Parliament, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is required to seek for an approval from the EU for an extension. Prior, European Commission stated that a request of extension would require unanimous agreement from all 27 member of states in the EU. Likewise, UK would have to provide valid justification for the extension while EU would consider such request with high priority in ensuring the function of EU institutions and taking account for duration of such extension. Leaders of EU is expected to meet next Thursday and Friday. However, gains on the US dollar were limited following the release of bearish data from the region. According US Department of Labor, Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 229,000 individuals, missing economists’ forecast for a rise up to 225,000. A slight appreciation in jobless claims suggested that the labor market is growing slowly, stoking fears towards forthcoming recession amid global economic slowdown. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.17% to 96.68 while pair of GBP/USD was traded flat around 1.3248.

As for commodities, crude oil price tacks up 0.09% to $58.52 per barrel. Oil prices extended its gains for fourth consecutive day following bullish data from the United States which shows a large draw in oil inventories. Otherwise, gold price slid by 0.02% to $1,296.28 a troy ounce following diminishing risks in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:00                     JPY                         BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                JPY                        BoJ Press Conference

17:00                     CrudeOIL               IEA Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower following a close below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 96.75, 97.05

Support level: 96.45, 96.20

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1.3240. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3350.

Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3170

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support at 1.1300. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1340.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1400

Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 112.20.

Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80

Support level: 111.45, 111.00

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.7050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7075.

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7050, 0.7025

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6885

Support level: 0.6820, 0.6790

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3300.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3370

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.0040. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 0.9995.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 59.65.

Resistance level: 59.65, 63.70

Support level: 55.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to advance further down after closing below the support of 1294.00.

Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45

Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20

14 March 2019                   Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remains weak as Trump display sign of willingness.

Dollar index extend its losses against basket of six major currency pairs as reports on US President Donald Trump display openness in recent summit with China. According to reports from Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump have stated that he is willing to push back a summit with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping until a final deal is being reached. However, despite recent tone shift from US President Donald Trump, Trump remains stern regarding the fairness in trade deal and warned that he’ll reject a deal that he doesn’t like, which may prolong tensions between both nations. Besides that, current greenback sentiment remains affected by PPI data which reflect further confirmation on Fed to reaffirm its plan for pausing rate hike. Dollar index fell 0.04% to 96.36 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUDUSD remains in red and fell 0.25% to 0.7075 as of writing following mixed China headline data. Despite better than expect China retail sales, China’s factory activity suffered as industrial production missed expectations with the reading of 5.3% against forecast reading 5.5%. Furthermore, ongoing trade tensions between both powerhouses continues to haunt Aussie dollar whereby China is the largest consumer of Australian goods.

In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 0.12% to $58.40 per barrel as U.S aims to cut Iran’s crude oil exports by at least 20% to 1 million bpd from May by requiring importing countries to reduce purchases to avoid U.S sanctions, reducing further the supply of crude oil which supported the price. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.20% to $1306.68 a troy ounce at the time of writing due to profit taking after a recent continuous rally in the yellow metal boosted by dollar weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Monthly Report

03:00 (15hb)        GBP                                        UK Parliament vote on Extension of Brexit Date

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 96.80.

Resistance level: 96.80, 97.20

Support level: 96.40, 96.10

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3245. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.3245.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3180

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upward channel top level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1315.

Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390

Support level: 1.1315, 1.1290

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 111.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.00.

Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35

Support level: 111.50, 111.15

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7045.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7105

Support level: 0.7045, 0.7005

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level 0.6830.

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6900

Support level: 0.6830, 0.6805

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.3320.

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3355

Support level: 1.3260, 1.3195

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.0025. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.0065.

Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0090

Support level: 1.0025, 0.9985

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the channel top level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 59.45.

Resistance level: 59.45, 61.25

Support level: 57.65, 55.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1310.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1296.50.

Resistance level: 1310.35, 1321.10

Support level: 1296.50, 1283.95

14 March 2019                   Morning Session Analysis

Sterling shines as MP reject No-Deal Brexit.

Pound sterling remains as the focus of the week as investors mull parliamentary voting results which would determine UK’s Brexit fate. Overnight, pound sterling jumped more than 1,600 basis points despite political chaos in the UK as members of the parliament (MP) rejects the motion to leave European Union without a withdrawal agreement under any circumstances. While the vote which is passed with 312 to 308 is not legally binding, MPs will now set to cast their vote tomorrow morning over a motion to delay Brexit deadline on March 29^th. Following the vote earlier today, UK Prime Minister Theresa May mentioned that the options remains the same and it includes a “damaging” second referendum that may cancel Brexit altogether. Otherwise, greenback remains in the foreground following a slew of bearish economic data from the region. According to US Labor Department, Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month of February came in at only 0.1%, missing economist forecast for 0.2%. In addition, US Commerce Department reported that total Core Durable Goods Orders fell by 0.1%, confounding forecast for a rise of up to 0.1%. Overall, prior optimism which surrounds US economy has somehow faded and it begins with last week’s lull Nonfarm Payrolls report despite decade high pace of wage growth and lower unemployment rate. For the time being, investors will continue to scrutinize the probable change in Federal Reserve’s policy stance by assessing future economic release from the US. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD depreciate slightly by 0.18% to 1.3314 while the dollar index extended losses by 0.48% to 96.36.

In the commodities market, crude oil price extended its bullish momentum by 0.07% to $58.36 per barrel. Oil futures received a bullish boost after Energy Information Administration reported a draw in US crude oil stocks by 3.9 million barrels last week, better than economist forecast for an increase of 2.65 million barrels. Similarly, gold price rose 0.07% to $1,309.65 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:00                     CrudeOIL               OPEC Monthly Report

03:00 (15^th)          GBP                        UK Parliament vote on Extension of Brexit Date

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 96.45, 97.05

Support level: 95.95, 95.55

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.3350. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3170

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.1300. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to experience technical correction for short-term.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1400

Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses following a successful breakout from the bottom.

Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20

Support level: 111.00, 110.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 0.7100. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7120

Support level: 0.7075, 0.7050

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term towards 0.6840.

Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6940

Support level: 0.6840, 0.6820

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3175

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below 1.0040. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 0.9995.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 58.55. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 58.55, 59.65

Support level: 57.45, 56.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1315.45, 1326.50

Support level: 1305.60, 1294.00

13 March 2019                   Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remains weak, Aussie disappoints again by Westpac.

Bears continues to dominate the greenback market as seller remains emphasize on US-China trade concerns and weak inflation data on Tuesday. In recent news, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer have noted that both economic powerhouses are close to a deal while offering little details on how close. However, he also stated that a successful outcome is not assured which heightening concern among regarding whether the both nations could end the trade war with a truce. Besides that, weaker than expected CPI inflation data which release on Tuesday remains affected the market sentiment which currently continues to dragged the greenback value. Dollar index slips 0.02% to 97.87 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUD/USD reports losses again, fell 0.25% to 0.7060 as of writing following Westpac consumer confidence tanked. According to data by Westpac, consumer’s confidence in Australia fell to -4.8%, the biggest slide since the end of 2017 which erased the 4.3% rise in previous month. Adding further by NAB’s weak business conditions data, the data further proves deteriorating business and slowdown in the Australia’s economy which continue to pressure the Aussie.

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains steady and edge higher 0.03% to $57.10 per barrel as of writing following continuous supply cuts continue to boost the commodity. In latest news, Saudi Arabia plans to cut its crude oil exports in April to below 7 million barrels per day (bpd), while keeping its output well below 10 million bpd as the kingdom seeks to drain a supply glut and support oil prices. On the other hand, gold price extend gains by 0.20% to 1303.95 a troy ounce following an ongoing weak dollar dominated by recent weak data and trade fears.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                              GBP                                        Annual Budget Release

20:30                     GBP                                        Spring Forecast Statement

03:00 (14hb)        GBP                                        UK Parliament vote on No-Deal Brexit

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following rebound from lower level. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.60
Support level: 96.60, 95.80

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3085. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3180

Support level: 1.3000, 1.2915

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded in an upward-channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1290. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the bottom-level of the channel near the support level of 1.1260.

Resistance level: 1.1290, 1.1340

Support level: 1.1260, 1.1215

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.95.

Resistance level: 111.45, 112.00

Support level: 110.95, 110.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7080. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7025.

Resistance level: 0.7080, 0.7125

Support level: 0.7025, 0.6975

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 0.6875. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6805.

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6935

Support level: 0.6805, 0.6765

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing support level 1.3360. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.3400.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3455

Support level: 1.3360, 1.3325

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.0095.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0130

Support level: 1.0050, 1.0010

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the top-level of the channel at 57.50. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level of 56.15.

Resistance level: 57.50, 58.70

Support level: 56.15, 55.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level of 1305.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1305.50, 1315.00

Support level: 1294.50, 1285.50

13 March 2019                   Morning Session Analysis

Dollar-bulls tamed by timid inflation.

US dollar retreats further on Tuesday as recent inflationary data reaffirmed the course for Federal Reserve to hold off monetary policy tightening. Against six major peers, the dollar index slipped 0.23% to 96.90 as of writing. According to US Labor Department, its Core Consumer Price Index slowed down to 0.1% for the month of February, missing economist expectation for a rise up to 0.2%. With current core metrics lingers around the optimal rate of 2%, the data has done little to upon Federal Reserve to abandon its wait-and-see approach on interest rate hikes. Although recent labor costs seen some minor appreciation, its pass through towards consumer prices inflation is quite modest. Stronger productivity in growth over the years has kept labor costs in check while historically high profit margins encourage companies to absorb the costs themselves. As such, some investors suggest that inflationary pressure is less likely to get out of hand. In the UK front, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.02% to 1.3076 during Asian trading session. As expected by some, it was a second defeat for PM Theresa May after her Brexit deal was being voted down with 391 votes against 242. With her deal rejected, UK Parliament will now set to vote upon a No-Deal Brexit initiative. If that fails, they will set to vote on extending the Article 50 or Brexit deadline this coming Friday. In conjunction with the recent defeat, President of European Council Donald Tusk said that the EU will consider any request to delay Brexit if “considerable and credible justification” is being presented.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.18% to $57.15 per barrel. Oil futures remained supported after American Petroleum Institute reported a draw in last week’s oil inventories by 2.580 million barrels. As for gold, its prices tick up 0.01% to $1,301.13 a troy ounce following further setback on the greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                   Event

Tentative                GBP                                        Annual Budget Release

20:30                     GBP                                        Spring Forecast Statement

03:00 (14^th)          GBP                                        UK Parliament vote on No-Deal Brexit

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10

Support level: 95.95, 95.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending wedge following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3170

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2880

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1300. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1345

Support level: 1.1260, 1.1220

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 111.45.

Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20

Support level: 111.00, 110.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the MA line.

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7050, 0.7025

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower as technical correction for short-term.

Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6940

Support level: 0.6840, 0.6820

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 1.3370. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3300.

Resistance level: 1.3370, 1.3435

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the bottom level of sideways channel. Although MACD illustrate persistent bearish signal, a close below this level is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0120

Support level: 1.0070, 1.0040

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to experience technical correction in short-term.

Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55

Support level: 56.45, 55.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior rebound from the support of 1294.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1305.60.

Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45

Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20

12 March 2019                   Afternoon Session Analysis

NAB disappoints Aussie, dollar remains in red.

Dollar remains in struggle following market continue to react towards recent US data release due to lack of fresh catalyst. Despite recent US retails sales provide an unexpected higher than expected reading, a downward revision to December’s sharp decline have failed to entice investor’s appeal to bid on the greenback’s demand. Besides that, recent US-Sino trade talk have turn south as both nations have cancelled trade meeting plans and continue to battle over a trade deal that would be fair and protecting the interest of its own country. The ongoing unresolved difference between two economic powerhouses increasing market’s concerns, thus limiting the upside for the greenback. Dollar index slumped 0.15% to 96.96 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUDUSD also slips 0.03% to 0.7066 at the time of writing following a disappointing release by National Australia Bank (NAB). According to NAB, both business conditions and confidence index missed economist expectations which indicates a clear weakness in its business conditions and economic outlook. The weak data may place higher pressure upon RBA to decrease its rate twice for this year, thus dragging the Aussie sentiment.

In the commodities market, crude oil price gained 0.65% to $57.11 per barrel as OPEC’s supply cuts continue to lift oil investors’ confidence. Despite economic headwind could pose downside risk to crude oil, continuous glut cut by OPEC and its allies, added with healthy demand as expected marine diesel usage starting next year were celebrated by the market, bidding for the crude. On the other hand, gold price edge higher 0.15% to 1295.15 as of writing following ongoing dollar weakness which dragged by recent economic data releases.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00 (13hb)        GBP                                        UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 97.20. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.70.

Resistance level: 97.20, 97.60

Support level: 96.70, 96.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3245. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3180.

Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3345

Support level: 1.3180, 1.3070

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1260. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.1260.

Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1290

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 111.15. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 111.50.

Resistance level: 111.50, 112.00

Support level: 111.15, 110.90

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7070.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7105

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6935

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6845. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6845.

Resistance level: 0.6845, 0.6875

Support level: 0.6805, 0.6760

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3410. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 1.3360.

Resistance level: 1.3410, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3360, 1.3320

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.0120.

Resistance level: 1.0120, 1.0160

Support level: 1.0090, 1.0055

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 56.80. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 57.75.

Resistance level: 57.75, 58.85

Support level: 56.80, 55.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher while currently testing the downward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout the downward trend line.

Resistance level: 1296.90, 1305.40

Support level: 1283.90, 1266.35

12 March 2019                   Morning Session Analysis

Sterling sky high over last-minute Brexit talks.

US dollar extended its bearishness against other major currencies while investors digest mixed economic data from the region. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.37% to 97.07 during early Asian trading session. According to US Commerce Department, retail sales rose by 0.2% for the month of January while December’s reading received a downward revision to -1.6%. Although the latest data beats economist expectation to remain flat at 0.0%, the downward revision has portrayed three consecutive months of downtrend, raising higher concern over shrinkage in consumer spending. Moving forward, investors will be placing their focus upon US inflation data due later tonight while broader risk appetite in the market will be vigilant towards the meaningful vote upon PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal. In the UK front, pair of GBP/USD skyrocketed 0.71% to 1.3244 following last-minute Brexit talks between UK and EU. According to reports, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the European Union President Jean-Claude Juncker had made a “very important” offer towards the UK in order to break the deadlock in Brexit talks. Majority of market participants poured into pound sterling over speculation that both EU and UK may agree over Irish backstop that may provide some support towards May’s Brexit deal during parliamentary vote.

As for commodities, crude oil price tacks up 0.21% to $56.85 per barrel. Oil price extended its gains after Saudi Arabia announced that OPEC-led supply cuts will unlikely to end before June. Quoting Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, he said that it would be too early to change the pact while they will continue to take a proactive approach to rebalance the global supply and demand. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.03% to $1,292.93 a troy ounce following diminishing risks in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00 (13^th)          GBP                         UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10

Support level: 95.95, 95.00

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD extended gains while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3240. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after successfully closing above 1.3240.

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3170, 1.3100

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support of 1.1220. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1460

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1125

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above 111.45.

Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20

Support level: 111.00, 110.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7075, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7050, 0.7025

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6840. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6885

Support level: 0.6820, 0.6790

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3370.

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3485

Support level: 1.3370, 1.3300

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical corrections.

Resistance level: 1.0120, 1.0180

Support level: 1.0095, 1.0040

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher, towards the direction of 57.45.

Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55

Support level: 56.45, 55.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begin to form a death cross signal suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60

Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30

11 March 2019                   Afternoon Session Analysis

All eyes on sedated US-China trade talk.

Greenback extended its gains on Monday while investors continue to monitor the progression of US-China trade negotiation. As of writing, the dollar index notched up 0.13% to 97.32. According to reports, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang stated that the trade negotiation in between US and China have reached consensus on a number of crucial issues while discussing previous commitments made by Group of 20 nations on avoiding competitive devaluation of currencies. He mentioned that both countries have discussed about respecting the “autonomy” of each other’s monetary policy. Although Yi’s comment address US concerns over China’s potential depreciation of yuan to blunt the impact of tariffs, he avoided any mention of one-sided pledge by Beijing to hold its currency stable. Currency stability has been the key points in talks in the recent week, as President Donald Trump pushes to seal a deal between both countries. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.13% to 0.7035 during Asian trading session.

As for commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.61% to $56.30 per barrel. Oil futures remains well in bid following OPEC-led supply cuts which will unlikely to end anytime soon. In addition, US Baker Hughes shows that last week’s oil rig count fell by 9 to 834, its third weekly drop since mid-February. On the other hand, gold price slumped by 0.11% to $1,296.65 a troy ounce following a rebound in US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

07:00 (12^th)          USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 97.20. However, MACD which shows bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggests the index to experience technical correction in short-term.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00

Support level: 97.20, 97.05

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.2965. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.2965.

Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3185

Support level: 1.2965, 1.2895

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate upward momentum and the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1260.

Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1290

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideway channel while currently testing the upper level. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 111.15.

Resistance level: 111.15, 111.50

Support level: 110.90, 110.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7025. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7045.

Resistance level: 0.7045, 0.7070

Support level: 0.7025, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6805

Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6845

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6705

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3410. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher towards 1.3495.

Resistance level: 1.3495, 1.3570

Support level: 1.3410, 1.3370

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level. However, MACD which illustrate downward momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1.0055.

Resistance level: 1.0090, 1.0125

Support level: 1.0055, 1.0015

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 55.85. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 56.80.

Resistance level: 56.80, 57.75

Support level: 55.85, 55.10

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1296.90.  MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1296.90.

Resistance level: 1305.40, 1314.95

Support level: 1296.90, 1283.90

11 March 2019                   Morning Session Analysis

Jobs blunder limits greenback ascend.

US dollar was traded lower on last Friday after data shows that the US economy added far fewer workers than expected for the month of February. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.08% to 97.26 during Asian trading session. According to US Labor Department, Nonfarm Payrolls for last month came in at only 20,000 jobs, far lesser than the consensus forecast for an increase of 180,000. A plunge in last month’s job gains was largely due to weather-related disruption. However, losses on the greenback remains limited after Unemployment Rate ticked down by 0.1% to 3.9%, indicating further tightening in the US labor market. Likewise, Average Hourly Earnings accelerated by 0.4%, higher than economists’ forecast for an increase of only 0.3%. Overall, greenback was sold off rather mildly as overall trend in employment is resilient enough to keep the unemployment rate low in long-term. In the UK front, pair of GBP/USD opened lower by 0.24% to 1.2984. Pound sterling was sold off earlier this morning due to risk aversion as UK Parliament members will pass their verdict on PM Theresa May’s Brexit plan on 12^th March which may be used to enforce Brexit on 29^th March. However, CNBC reported on Sunday that Brexit could be reversed if lawmakers reject May’s exit deal and it may further jeopardize May’s position that adds further weakness on the GBP. If the proposal was rejected, it would open the door for voting of “No Deal Exit” on 13^th March. Likewise, a rejection to exit EU without any deal will lead to a vote to either delay Brexit deadline which is set on 29^th March.

In the commodities front, crude oil price rose 0.34% to $56.16 per barrel. The commodity received higher demand after reports show that Saudi Arabia produced 10.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, well below its assigned quota of 10.31 bpd. In addition, Saudi Arabia energy minister Khalid al-Falih said last month that March production level could fall to 9.8 million bpd which may provide further bullishness towards the commodity’s price. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.09% to $1,297.19 a troy ounce following a rebound of US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

07:00 (12^th)          USD                         Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper levels. MACD which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to experience technical correction in short-term.

Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10

Support level: 95.95, 95.00

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses following a successful close below the MA line.

Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3100

Support level: 1.2880, 1.2790

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support at 1.1220.

Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.

Resistance level: 111.45, 112.20

Support level: 111.00, 110.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.7030. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.7030.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090

Support level: 0.7030, 0.6995

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6820.

Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6790, 0.6745

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards 1.3435.

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3485

Support level: 1.3370, 1.3300

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.0095.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0120

Support level: 1.0045, 0.9995

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to extend further up after closing above 56.45.

Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45

Support level: 55.60, 55.15

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1305.60, 1315.45

Support level: 1294.00, 1280.20

8 March 2019                      Afternoon Session Analysis

Safe-haven dominates market, supported by dovish ECB.

The safe-haven market preferably dollar, gold and Japanese Yen strengthened amid uncertainties spiraled from the European market when ECB Press Conference took a dovish stance towards their policy tightening which were expected during mid-autumn this year. After pushing the interest rate hike till at least end of this year and the introduction of ECB’s stimulus Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) beginning September, both scenarios have caused investors to largely sell-off euro while escaping into safe dollar market. Yesterday’s announcement of lower Jobless Claims data further supported the dollar, surging to its mid-December high. On the other hand, safe-haven Japanese Yen was also holding its stance amid market uncertainties while earlier announcement of Japan GDP which exceeds economists’ expectations of 0.4% by 0.1% to 0.5% further supported the Yen. As of writing, dollar index retraced by 0.12% to 97.45 while pair of USD/JPY was down by 0.29% to 111.25 while investors remained cautious ahead of today’s NFP.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.23% to $56.25 per barrel amid uncertainties towards oil demand as China cuts its’ economic growth target and slowdown in Europe economic growth. However, fall in oil prices was still limited due to OPEC’s continuous glut cut. Otherwise, gold prices gained by 0.20% to $1,288.00 a troy ounce as market remained cautious ahead of NFP.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 97.60. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 97.15.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25

Support level: 97.15, 96.80

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3090. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction and rebound from the support level towards the resistance level 1.3205.

Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3285

Support level: 1.3090, 1.2975

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1175. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1215.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1260

Support level: 1.1175, 1.1125

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 111.10. MAC which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70

Support level: 111.10, 110.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7005. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7085

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6950

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6765. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6800

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3440. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction back below the support level 1.3375.

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3570

Support level: 1.3440, 1.3375

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.0115. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0085.

Resistance level: 1.0115, 1.0170

Support level: 1.0085, 1.0055

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded in sideway channel. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level or below the support level for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20

Support level: 55.60, 54.30

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat in sideway channel. Due to lack of momentum from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level or below the support level is required for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1289.35, 1295.15

Support level: 1284.10, 1278.90

8 March 2019                      Morning Session Analysis

Euro nosedived into the abyss.

Euro was sold off tremendously during North American trading hours following seemingly dovish stance taken by the European Central Bank (ECB). As of writing, pair of EUR/USD extended its overnight losses by 0.03% to 1.1193, its lowest level in 20 months. In a statement released by ECB, the central bank pushed back its expectation for an interest rate hike to at least the end of the year, shattering investor’s hope for the beginning of monetary policy tightening which was hinted to start autumn this year. Moreover, ECB slashed its economic projection as expected for year 2019 from 1.7% to 1.1%, a drop of 0.6% from previous forecast which were released three months ago. The dramatic cut was made due to global economic uncertainty, trade tensions and regional risks which continues to brew. To counter which possible growth slowdown in the EU zone, ECB announced a new economic stimulus known as Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) which will begin in September 2019. The package is intended to expand banking institutions existing stimulus in order to inject liquidity into the EU financial system while avoiding credit crunch during economic downturn. In a press conference following ECB’s policy decision, President Mario Draghi stated that the persistence of uncertainties would leave a mark on economic sentiment and risks which surrounds EU area are still tilted to the downside. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.75% to 97.50 while pair of USD/JPY flattens at 111.59.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $56.45 per barrel. Oil prices oscillate within a tight range while traders monitor contradicting signals with regards to oil demand and supply in the market. Otherwise, gold prices threaded water at around $1,285.66 a troy ounce as investors await the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for tonight.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Weekly: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains in short-term, towards 97.80.

Resistance level: 97.80, 99.10

Support level: 95.95, 95.00

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3100. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3010.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3170

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2880

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its losses following prior breakout at the bottom level of descending wedge. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1125.

Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1125, 1.1000

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 111.45. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains following a closure above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80

Support level: 111.45, 111.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6995.

Resistance level: 0.7030, 0.7090

Support level: 0.6995, 0.6925

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6790, 0.6820

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6720

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3370

USDCHF, Weekly: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance level of 1.0095. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above this level.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0180

Support level: 0.9900, 0.9765

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel while recently retraced from the mid-level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 56.45, 57.45

Support level: 55.60, 55.15

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a tight range as of recent. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1294.00, 1305.60

Support level: 1280.20, 1267.30

7 March 2019                      Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback hover ahead of Nonfarm Payroll.

Dollar index, which gauge the value of Greenback against six major peers lingered within a tight range since yesterday while investors remain cautious ahead of Nonfarm Payroll data which will be announced on this Friday. Earlier this week, the appeal of greenback was propelled following the release of crucial data such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales portrayed that the economy is still remain resilient. Nevertheless, ADP Nonfarm Payroll data which reputed to be known as a good predictor of the government nonfarm payroll report came in at a disappointed figure of only 183K, weaker than economist forecast of 189K. Recent economic data painted a mixed picture on US economy growth and thus, urged market participants to standstill while waiting for further confirmation before entering the dollar market. Dollar index down 0.01% to 96.75 during Asian trading session. On the other hand, the pair of USD/CAD quoted up 0.01% to 1.3440 amid pessimistic Ivey PMI data from yesterday. According to Richard Ivey School of Business, Ivey PMI data for February dropped sharply to 50.6 from 54.7, indicating that Canada economic performance is slowing down, hence fueling the overall negative sentiment towards Canadian Dollar market.

In the commodities market, crude oil price was quoted up 0.45% to $56.40 per barrel despite EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a sharp build up in stock. Ongoing OPEC oil production cut and U.S sanctions against Venezuela and Iran managed to form a strong ‘tripod’ to support the crude oil price. Besides, gold price edged up 0.02% to $1286.65 a troy ounce while investor are waiting for confirmation from NFP report.
 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

21:30                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 96.90. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 96.40.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.15

Support level: 96.40, 96.05

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3095. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, toward the direction of 1.3205.

Resistance level: 1.3205, 1.3285

Support level: 1.3095, 1.2975

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. However, MACD which indicate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.1340.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.10.

Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70

Support level: 111.10, 110.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7005. MACD which illustrate bullish signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7055.

Resistance level: 0.7055, 0.7085

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6950

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6765. MACD which has formed a bullish signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6800.

Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6845

Support level: 0.6765, 0.6725

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD extend its gains while currently testing the resistance level 1.3440. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.3375.

Resistance level: 1.3440, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3375, 1.3310

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.0055. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0085

Support level: 1.0025, 0.9975

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded in sideway channel following recent rebound from support level 55.60. However, MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher following its major trend towards the resistance level 57.50.

Resistance level: 57.50, 59.20

Support level: 55.60, 54.30

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat in sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it successful breaks above the channel.

Resistance level: 1289.35, 1295.15

Support level: 1284.10, 1278.90