Daily Analysis

18 January 2019                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remain steady following upbeat data.

Dollar index remains firm against a basket of six major currencies following upbeat Jobless claims data. According to US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims at 5-week low, dropped by 3000 to 213,000 which exceed economists’ forecast for a drop to 216,000 which proved that the government shutdown has yet affected on jobs market. Besides that, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index also rose to 17.00 which also beat expectation of 9.7, further boosted the dollar sentiment. Dollar index rose 0.02% to 95.68 as of writing. Meanwhile, USDJPY climb 0.15% to 109.38 at the time of writing following inflation rate at low levels. According to reports, Japanese core inflations remains trapped at seven month lows with Bank of Japan does not near anywhere closer to their 2% inflation target.

In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 0.81% to $52.60 per barrel as markets scatters to bid on oil market following US have plans to reconsider for harsher sanctions on Venezuela that could further decrease imports of country oil, boosting positive sentiment towards the oil markets. On the other hand, gold price struggled following increasing dollar strength and global tension ease.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

Tentative                              CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

22:05                     USD                                        FOMC Member Williams Speaks

00:00 (19^th)          USD                                        FOMC Member Harker Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior retracement from the resistance level 95.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.25.

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.40

Support level: 95.25, 94.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2930. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3045

Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3165

Support level: 1.2930, 1.2800

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1375. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the support level 1.1375.

Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1565

Support level: 1.1375, 1.1310

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 109.10. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 110.25

Resistance level: 110.25, 111.40

Support level: 109.10, 107.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7230

Resistance level: 0.7230, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7115

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its momentum after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6800

Support level: 0.6715, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3300. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appears such as breakout above or below the nearest resistance or support level before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3190, 1.3060

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lwoer following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9950. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend it retracement towards the support level 0.9910.

Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9985

Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 50.30. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 53.00

Resistance level: 53.00, 55.25

Support level: 50.30, 48.30

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appears such as breakout above resistance level 1298.50 or support level 1286.90 before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1296.85, 1309.00

Support level: 1287.00, 1278.90

18 January 2019                Morning Session Analysis

Sterling reigns, dollar dethroned.

Greenback was little changed on Thursday as most of its upbeat economic data was offset by a strong rise in pound sterling. In the US, Philadelphia Fed reported that its manufacturing index rose to 17 in the month of January, exceeding economist forecast of only 9.7. In addition, initial jobless claims hit its lowest level in 5 weeks, despite government shutdown which has furloughed more than 800,000 federal workers. However, greenback failed to extend any substantial recovery following a change in sentiment within the market. In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May seeks cross-party consensus upon Brexit conundrum after her government won a vote of confidence last Wednesday. Traders continues to buy into sterling as they speculate UK might be able to secure a withdrawal deal while avoiding to leave the EU without a trade deal. However, uncertainty continues to loom over Brexit as Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has refused to enter into a cross-party talk, demanding May to rule out a no-deal Brexit. As of writing, dollar index was quoted up 0.03% to 95.67 while GBP/USD tacks up 0.05% to 1.2974.

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.33% to $52.34 per barrel. Oil prices rebounds from its prior low as US considers to lift China trade tariffs, a move which could reduce the trade tension between both nations. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.09% to $1,290.79 a troy ounce following resilient US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

Tentative                              CrudeOIL                               OPEC Meeting

22:05                     USD                                        FOMC Member Williams Speaks

00:00 (19^th)          USD                                        FOMC Member Harker Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 95.75. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.10

Support level: 95.30, 95.00

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3030, 1.3110

Support level: 1.2960, 1.2910

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the support of 1.1380. MACD which has formed a bullish divergence signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1420.

Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1330

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 108.95. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above 109.35.

Resistance level: 109.35, 109.90

Support level: 108.95, 108.25

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards 0.7180.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7145

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further downwards after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards, towards the support at 1.3260.

Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3320

Support level: 1.3260, 1.3230

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9990

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9835

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains after successfully closing above the level of 52.75.

Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10

Support level: 51.50, 50.50

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1287.20, 1284.35

17 January 2019                Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback and Pound Sterling oscillated.

Dollar index traded flat against its six major peer currencies after hitting high level of 95.75 while investor currently wait for the crucial data that will be announced on later today, including U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and New Home Sales. A higher than expected reading would be taken as a bullish momentum toward the Greenback and portraying that the economic growth outlook is still remain resilient. Prior to the release of data, investor will also keeping their eyes on the US government shutdown issues as it had continue to the 26^th day while there is no any clear end in sight yet. Although US President Donald Trump has signed the bill that guarantee back pay for the government employees who have been furloughed during the partial government shutdown, but the record breaking of US government shutdown is begin to harm the US economy as it weighed significantly on growth and could potentially push the US economy into a contraction. Dollar index rose 0.05% to 95.70 as of writing. Besides, the pair of GBP/USD inched down 0.04% to 1.2875 after UK PM Theresa May survived from the no confidence vote that against her. As of now, Labour of MPs is exerting pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to back a second referendum where they resisted to campaign a vote on British withdrawal from European Zone again.

In the commodities market, crude oil price down 0.52% to $52.05 per barrel despite EIA Crude Oil Inventories data shown a higher than expected declined in crude oil inventories held by US firm. The fallen of crude oil price during Asia trading session is due to the EIA report where they emphasized that the crude oil production has rose to a record of 11.9 million barrels per day last week. Besides that, gold price fell by 0.16% to $1291.30 a troy ounce amid the strengthening of dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:45                     USD                                        FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 95.75. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 95.75.

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00

Support level: 95.20, 94.85

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2885. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1.2820.

Resistance level: 1.2885, 1.2965

Support level: 1.2820, 1.2715

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1435. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1375.

Resistance level: 1.1435, 1.1495

Support level: 1.1375, 1.1310

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 108.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 109.10.

Resistance level: 109.10, 109.65

Support level: 108.55, 107.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the bottom level of channel at 0.7180. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7140.

Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7230

Support level: 0.7140, 0.7105

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the support level at 0.6760.

Resistance level: 0.6800, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6740

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of the sideway channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3285.

Resistance level: 1.3285, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3195

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9900. However, MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 0.9900.

Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0005

Support level: 0.9900, 0.9855

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower in the sideway channel following prior retracement from the channel’s top level. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 52.75, 54.70

Support level: 50.65, 49.70

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower in the sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1295.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1286.90.

Resistance level: 1295.15, 1300.90

Support level: 1286.90, 1277.10

17 January 2019                Morning Session Analysis

Market flattens as further signals is required.

Pound sterling struggled to determine its direction on yesterday after UK Prime Minister Theresa May survives a vote of no-confidence with a slim margin. May’s government garnered 325 votes of support against 306 votes of no-confidence. The motion was brought against May by Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn following a widely expected defeat of Brexit withdrawal deal last Tuesday. In a speech given subsequent to the vote of no confidence, May invites the leaders of all parties to have a private meeting with her as soon as yesterday tonight in order to seek a consensus with regards to Brexit conundrum. Her government is expected to deliver an alternative solution as soon as next Monday (21^st January). On the other hand, US dollar failed to extends its gains on yesterday following dovish signal from Federal Reserve. Several senior Fed officials commented that they are in no hurry to raise interest rates further due to the possibility of a slowing global economic growth. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2882 while the dollar index oscillates at around 95.68.

In the commodities market, crude oil price settled down 0.29% to $52.17 per barrel. According to EIA, US daily oil production rose by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching a massive 11.9 million bpd last week. The continuing rise in supply has overshadowed bullish inventory data which recorded a larger than expected draw by -2.683 million versus forecast of only -1.323 million. Otherwise, gold price continues to be traded in a sideways fashion at around $1,293.72 a troy ounce due to the lack of market signals.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:45                     USD                                        FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 95.30.

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.10

Support level: 95.30, 95.00

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level of 1.2860. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2960

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1380. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1420.

Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1330

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 108.95, 109.35

Support level: 108.25, 107.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of descending channel. MACD which illustrates diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7220

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7110

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, both MACD and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards 1.3230.

Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3290

Support level: 1.230, 1.3180

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following a retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.9935.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9950

Support level: 0.9935, 0.9790

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from its previous high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to advance further down, towards the direction of 51.50.

Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10

Support level: 51.50, 50.50

GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended gains following prior rebound from its mid-level of sideways channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1297.00.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1287.20, 1284.35

16 January 2019                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar boosted by stimulus plans.

Dollar index rose against its basket of six major rival pairs following news on increasing stimulus measures. According to reports from Guardian, China’s finance ministry have pledged to increase stimulus measures such as tax cut and boost spending to countermeasure towards unexpected fall in the China’s exports in December. Besides that, uncertainty in UK after parliamentary vote against Theresa May’s Brexit deal came in defeat also boosted the dollar as investor shy away from sterling and risk averse into dollar. Dollar index was up 0.07% to 95.66 as of writing. Meanwhile, EURUSD was down 0.08% to 1.1405 at the time of writing following German growth hits five year low. According to data, Europe’s largest economy growth slowed to 1.5% in 2018 compared to 2.2% in 2017 which is the slowest rate of growth in five years, signaling a cooling global growth which hurt market sentiment.

In the commodities market, crude oil price inched higher 0.12% to $52.05 per barrel as markets remains positive over OPEC-led supply cuts. Despite global growth slowdown fears, oil market remain supported by supply cuts from OPEC and its allies. Besides that, Saudi Arabia also contribute its share in supply cut where recently Saudi Arabia oil minister Khalid al-Falih also stated that its government stand ready to cut production even more deeply if needed. On the other hand, gold price remains steady and edge higher by 0.03% to 1289.41 as of writing as global growth slowdown and geopolitical risk continue to support the demand of the safe-haven asset.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 95.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short term technical correction towards the support level 95.25.

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.40

Support level: 95.25, 94.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2800. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2890.

Resistance level: 1.2890, 1.2950

Support level: 1.2800, 1.2720

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.1425. MACD which illustrate continuous bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1350.

Resistance level: 1.1425, 1.1480

Support level: 1.1350, 1.1280

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 108.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 107.85

Resistance level: 108.55, 109.10

Support level: 107.85, 107.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7230. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7175.

Resistance level: 0.7730, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7175, 0.7120

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6840. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6800.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6800, 0.6760

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following retracement from the resistance level 1.3300. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3190.

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3190, 1.3060

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9855. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.9855 before resume its trend.

Resistance level: 0.9920, 0.9985

Support level: 0.9855, 0.9790

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 50.30. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 53.00

Resistance level: 53.00, 55.25

Support level: 50.30, 48.30

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appears such as breakout above resistance level 1298.50 or support level 1286.90 before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1298.50, 1309.00

Support level: 1286.90, 1278.90

16 January 2019                Morning Session Analysis

May defeated, will Brexit get canceled?

Pound sterling was traded with higher volatility earlier today after UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was being rejected by the Parliament. Initially, pound sterling fell more than 1.82% to one-week low before consolidating around 1.2849 during Asian trading session. In a highly anticipated and expected parliamentary vote, the Brexit agreement proposed by May received 202 votes for and 432 against while 118 no votes from Conservative Party rebels. Following the vote, Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion for “No Confidence” against the government which may trigger yet another general election. As for now, the market is heavily speculating for two options, either to delay Britain’s March 29^th cutoff date or to bring in a second referendum which may end up cancelling Brexit all together. May’s government has until January 21^st to propose for a solution. At the same time, US dollar received similar market momentum due to large selloffs and buyback of pound sterling. The dollar index rose sharply to one-week high before retracing and currently traded around 95.50.

As for commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.40% to $51.77 per barrel. The commodity was traded with high volatility for the past few weeks following mixed signals in the market such as diminishing US drilling activity and possible economic slowdown in China. Otherwise, gold price consolidates around $1,290.06 a troy ounce as market participants gauge multiple risk factors in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 95.80, 96.15

Support level: 95.50, 95.25

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2910

Support level: 1.2800, 1.2755

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.1420. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retracement signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1380.

Resistance level: 1.1420, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1330

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 108.70. MACD which illustrate death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 108.40.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.00

Support level: 108.40, 108.05

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of descending triangle. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.7180.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7145

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal may suggest the pair to extend its gains in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3260. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3290.

Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3320

Support level: 1.3260, 1.3230

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.9905.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9950

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9790

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 51.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses after successfully closing below 51.50.

Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10

Support level: 51.50, 50.50

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1287.20. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal suggests its prices to extend its gains, towards the higher level of the channel.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1287.20, 1284.35

15 January 2019                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar inched lower, Brexit vote kept market pressured.

Dollar index continued to be pressured by cloudy sentiment after Fed’s dovish comment regarding being patient on future rate hikes provided the current inflation outlook. Besides that, global market participants are focusing all their attention towards the long-awaited Brexit vote on UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal whereby a major loss in vote might send the pound sterling falling while UK economy faces higher likelihood of recession. Recent reports stated that May will force a second vote if her deal is rejected, supported by German leader Angela Merkel with the quote that a no-deal Brexit will be a disaster for everyone. However, a second vote might be opposed by members of the Cabinet, increasing the likelihood of May being overthrow from her position as PM. Investors are being cautious while awaiting further sentiment in the current quiet market pressured by uncertainties and also lack of demand for safe-haven assets. As of writing, dollar index inched lower by 0.07% to 95.10 while pair of GBP/USD climbs by 0.27% to 1.2895.

For the commodities market, crude oil price edges higher by 0.63% to $51.10 per barrel while market sentiment continues to be boosted by OPEC’s production cut and Iran sanctions. Investors will focus on crude oil inventories report from EIA and API to gauge future price movements for oil. On the other hand, gold price falls by 0.08% to $1290.25 a troy ounce amid lower demand for safe-haven assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

00:30 (16^th)          USD                                        FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

02:00                     USD                                        FOMC Member George Speaks

02:00                     USD                                        FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

03:00                     USD                                        UK Parliament Vote on Brexit Deal

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from high levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to traded lower towards the support level of 94.85.

Resistance level: 95.60, 96.30

Support level: 94.85, 94.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2930. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.3015

Support level: 1.2815, 1.2700

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.1470. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1555.

Resistance level: 1.1555, 1.1635

Support level: 1.1470, 1.1400

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level 108.55. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.25.

Resistance level: 109.25, 109.90

Support level: 108.55, 107.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.7220. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7290

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7100

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6850. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6850, 0.6915

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6715

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower near the support level 1.3255. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3255, 1.3185

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.9805. MACD which display starting bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9860, 0.9925

Support level: 0.9805, 0.9755

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 50.50. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level of 51.60.

Resistance level: 51.60, 52.70

Support level: 50.50, 49.65

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the lower bottom level of the triangle. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the bottom level of the triangle is required for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1295.00, 1305.00

Support level: 1285.00, 1275.00

15 January 2019                Morning Session Analysis

Will UK “Brexit”?

Greenback edged lower on Monday while market participants fixates towards the imminent parliamentary vote upon Brexit deal draft. UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is widely expected to be rejected within the UK parliament. However, traders continue to buy-into the currency as a no-deal Brexit probability has significantly reduced. Currently, the market is speculating for a few possible outcomes which includes an extended stalemate, second referendum or even cancelling the Brexit all together. Over to the United States, US dollar failed to make any substantial recovery as market sentiment remains sour over dovish stance taken by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell said last week that the central bank would remain “patient” with regards to monetary policy tightening as long as domestic inflation hovers at a stable range. Thus, investor’s will focus on the release of Producer Price Index later tonight to gauge its economic pace and current wholesale inflationary levels. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD was up 0.10% to 1.2876 while the dollar index depreciates by 0.09% to 95.13.

Otherwise, crude oil price extended losses by 0.10% to $50.70 per barrel this morning. Oil prices took a step back after China’s economic report cited possibility for a lower trade growth in 2019 due to global trade uncertainty, which may also reduce its demand for crude oil. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat at $1,291.26 a troy ounce the traders await further market signals.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

00:30 (16^th)          USD                                        FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

02:00                     USD                                        FOMC Member George Speaks

02:00                     USD                                        FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

03:00                     USD                                        UK Parliament Vote on Brexit Deal

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after breaking the lower level of the channel.

Resistance level: 95.25, 95.50

Support level: 95.00, 94.60

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.2860. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2910.

Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2960

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the target of 1.1480. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 1.1480.

Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 108.05. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up in short-term, towards 108.40.

Resistance level: 108.40, 108.70

Support level: 108.05, 107.75

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7220.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7255

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7145

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance of 0.6840.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat and currently testing near the support of 1.3270. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below 1.3270.

Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3170

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9790. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9905

Support level: 0.9790, 0.9765

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 50.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher and advance towards 51.50.

Resistance level: 51.50, 52.75

Support level: 50.50, 49.30

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the lower levels. Stochastic Oscillator which has formed a retracement signal suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the bottom level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1284.35, 1280.00

14 January 2019                Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie crumbles after China trade report.

Australian dollar received some bearish pressure this morning following the release of China trade balance data and report. As of writing, the pair of AUD/USD was down 0.19% to 0.7200 during mid Asian session. According to China Customs, China’s total trade growth slowed down to 8.8% for year-over-year comparison in 4^th quarter. While China’s 2018 trade were much stronger as compared to prior due to volume increases, the report highlighted some bearish notes. In the report, the main concern for China’s trade is external uncertainty while citing a potential slowdown in trade growth for 2019. Overall bearish sentiment points back to tit-for-tat trade war in between United States and China which remains unresolved at the point of publish. At the same time, Japanese yen were well in bid as market participants awaits further signal from the release of US economic data such as Retail Sales and regional PMI. The pair of USD/JPY was down 0.34% to 108.17 as of writing.

As for commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 1.05% to $51.10 per barrel after China releases bearish outlook for 2019 trade growth. On the other hand, gold price oscillates around $1,290.83 a troy ounce while waiting for further signals from the United States.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All day                    JPY                                          Coming of Age (Adults’) Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrates diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 95.50, 95.80

Support level: 95.00, 94.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.2800. MACD which illustrates bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout at 1.2860.

Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2960

Support level: 1.2800, 1.2755

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1.1450. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher, after successfully closing above 1.1480.

Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near its recent highs. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 107.75.

Resistance level: 108.40, 109.00

Support level: 107.75, 106.75

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7145.

Resistance level: 0.7255, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.3270. MACD which portrays diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3385

Support level: 1.3270, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9835.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9890

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9790

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance at 52.75. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10

Support level: 50.50, 48.30

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a breakout from the triangle is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1284.35, 1280.00

14 January 2019                Morning Session Analysis

CPI well in-line, focus on Fed speakers.

US dollar recovered some losses last Friday while investors continue to gauge the economic performance and outlook for further market signals. The dollar index was quoted up 0.02%, last seen around 95.20. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of December came in as expected with 0.2%. However, gains on the greenback remains limited following dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Last Thursday, Powell expressed that the central bank is in no hurry of raising interest rates as long as current inflation level remains at a stable condition. For the week, a number of Fed officials would be giving their speech this week which may provide additional opportunity that may reassure the market with regards to monetary policy outlook in the long-run. On the other hand, pound sterling extended gains by 0.09% to 1.2853 against the US dollar. Sterling remains in the forefront after some senior UK lawmakers admitted privately that more time is still needed even as UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit draft receives the approval from parliament.

On the other hand, crude oil price appreciates by 0.31% to $51.80 per barrel as recent data shows some easing in US oil drilling activities. According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rig was down by 4 to 873, indicating a possible drawdown in daily oil supply. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.07% to $1,288.53 a troy ounce after traders buy-in at a lower price.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All day                    JPY                                          Coming of Age (Adults’) Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from its recent high levels. MACD which illustrates diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 95.50, 95.80

Support level: 95.00, 94.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.2800. MACD which illustrates bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout at 1.2860.

Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2960

Support level: 1.2800, 1.2755

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1.1450. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1.1480.

Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near its recent highs. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 108.40.

Resistance level: 109.00, 109.60

Support level: 108.40, 107.75

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7255.

Resistance level: 0.7255, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6840.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3270. MACD which portrays diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3170

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9835.

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9890

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9790

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance at 52.75. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 52.75, 54.10

Support level: 50.50, 48.30

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the mid-level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1297.00.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1284.35, 1280.00

11 January 2019                Afternoon Session Analysis

Fed sleeps, dollar tips.

Australian dollar extended its gains during mid-Asian trading session amid heightened optimism for a resolution of trade war between the United States and China. According to Reuters, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin mentioned that there are possible plans for top Chinese trade envoy Liu He to travel to the United States later this month. The report suggests for a possible higher-level talk which may cultivate broader resolution inclusiveness for both countries. Following the report, market participants continues to buy-in at riskier assets while flocking away from the greenback market. In addition, the Australian currency was further supported after Retail Sales for the month of November came in higher than expected with 0.4% versus forecast of 0.3%. On the other hand, US dollar remains subdued following “dovish” signals given by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell reiterated on Thursday that the US central bank has the ability to be “patient” with regards to monetary policy as long as current inflation level remains stable. Traders were taken aback by his comments as it suggests for a pause in monetary policy tightening. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.22% to 94.85 while pairing of AUD/USD rose 0.47% to 0.7219.

In the commodities market, crude oil price gained 0.38% to $52.40 per barrel following the release of hawkish news with regards to US-China trade talks. On the other hand, gold price appreciates by 0.46% to $1,292.37 a troy ounce amid weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower, towards the target of 94.60.

Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50

Support level: 94.60, 94.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1.2800.

Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2860

Support level: 1.2760, 1.2630

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 1.1590.

Resistance level: 1.1590, 1.1640

Support level: 1.1520, 1.1480

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further downwards after a successful close below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 108.40, 109.60

Support level: 107.75, 106.75

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.7145. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7255.

Resistance level: 0.7255, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.6780. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6840.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further downwards, towards the direction of 1.3170.

Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3270

Support level: 1.3170, 1.3120

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, in tandem with current bearish trend.

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9905

Support level: 0.9765, 0.9710

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended gains while currently testing at the resistance level of 52.75. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, after closing above 52.75.

Resistance level: 52.75, 55.55

Support level: 50.50, 48.30

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently rebounded from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1297.00.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1303.00

Support level: 1284.35, 1280.00

11 January 2019   Morning Session Analysis

Greenback dipped amid Fed’s chairman dovish comment.

Dollar index tumbled against its six major peer currencies in the early asian trading session amid dovish note from Federal Reserve chairman’s Jerome Powell on yesterday late night dragged down the sentiment of Dollar market. According to his speech, a pause on tightening monetary policy would be favor to the United State’s economy if the inflation rate for this year is remain stable., supported by Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. Besides, further deteriorated dollar market sentiment was a lack of details on any progress made in the vice ministerial level trade talk between China and United States after three days meeting. As of writing, Dollar index inched down 0.11% to 94.95. On the other hand, the pair of AUD/USD inched up 0.06% to 0.7190 amid upbeat data been announced on early morning today. According to Australian Bureau of Statistic, the retail sales data came in at 0.4%, comparing to 0.3% economist’s forecast portraying that the economics growth outlook is remain solid, bullish momentum of Aussie dollar bolstered.

In the commodities market, crude oil price surged 0.11% to $52.30 per barrel amid oil production cut from OPEC and the declined in US barrel count which shown in EIA crude oil inventories data, assuage the market participants concerns on market supply glut. Besides, gold price up 0.37% to $1291.05 a troy ounce after a gap down on Dollar index early morning.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 94.95. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest dollar to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 95.40, 95.70

Support level: 94.95, 94.60

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2740. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2780.

Resistance level: 1.2780, 1.2815

Support level: 1.2740, 1.2700

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 1.1520. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.1520, 1.1555

Support level: 1.1470, 1.1435

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.40. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 107.95.

Resistance level: 108.40, 108.90

Support level: 107.95, 107.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7180. MACD which display starting bullish signal and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7220.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7260

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7140

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level at 0.6785. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest this pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.6835.

Resistance level: 0.6835, 0.6880

Support level: 0.6785, 0.6745

USDCAD, H1 USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the bottom level of the channel and the support level 1.3210. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3160

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.9835. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9865, 0.9900

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9815

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 52.70. MACD which display diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.

Resistance level: 52.70, 53.90

Support level: 51.60, 50.50

GOLD_H1: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1288.10. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1295.00

Resistance level: 1295.00, 1300.90

Support level: 1288.10, 1283.00

10 Januari 2019                  Afternoon Session Analysis

Shaky dollar as Fed may pause rate hike.

US dollar remains under pressure prior to European Session as US Federal Reserve may pause their monetary policy tightening cycle this year. As discussed in the earlier report, minutes from Fed’s last month meeting revealed that several policymakers are in favor of keeping their interest rates on hold this year. The minutes has further reinforced market sentiment for a pause in rate hike due to diminishing economic momentum in the United States. In addition, optimism towards US-China trade talks has also encouraged investors to pay higher attention on non-dollar assets such as Australian dollar and Euro. A change in demand for currencies has placed further bearish pressure upon the greenback. On the other hand, Canadian dollar extended its rally on yesterday following a sharp rebound in oil prices. In addition, Bank of Canada’s assessment that further rate hike may be necessary propelled higher demand for the loonie. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.16% to 94.58 while pair of USD/CAD ticks down 0.02% to 1.3225.

Peering into commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 0.67% to $51.77 per barrel this afternoon. The commodity received some bearish momentum after report from EIA shows lesser-than-expected draw in crude oil stocks. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.27% to $1,296.84 a troy ounce amid dollar’s weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

01:00 (11th)         USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 94.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50

Support level: 94.60, 94.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.2800. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards 1.2755.

Resistance level: 1.2800, 1.2860

Support level: 1.2755, 1.2630

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from a high level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggest the pair to experience technical correction in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.1590, 1.1640

Support level: 1.1520, 1.1480

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, in tandem with overall bearish trend.

Resistance level: 108.40, 109.60

Support level: 106.75, 106.00

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7145. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7255.

Resistance level: 0.7255, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6780. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6840, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6710

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3120

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9765, 0.9835

Support level: 0.9665, 0.9620

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 52.75. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggest its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 52.75, 55.55

Support level: 50.50, 48.30

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from prior low at 1284.35. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in mid-term, after a successful closure at 1303.00.

Resistance level: 1303.00, 1314.45

Support level: 1284.35, 1263.20

10 January 2019   Morning Session Analysis

Dollar ‘stunned’ amid dovish Fed Minutes.

Dollar index which gauge against a basket of six major currencies tumbled to the lowest level in three months during early Asian trading session. Greenback received bearish momentum from the growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will put it hiking interest rate policy on pause this year. According to the Fed’s Minutes, there are few of the policymakers proposed to keep the interest rate steady during the meeting on 18 – 19 December. Moreover, market sentiment bolstered after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that the Sino trade talk was gone well, the optimism in trade dispute may reduced the demand of safe heaven asset. As of writing, Dollar index inched down 0.08% to 94.70.
On the other hand, the pair of AUD/USD down 0.20% to 0.7155 after the release of weaker than expected China factory-gate inflation. China Producer price index which measure the prices businesses receive for their goods and services came in at 0.9%, comparing to the forecast of 1.6% has deteriorated the sentiment of Aussie dollar, caused the market participant sell off the specific currency and shifted their investment to other market.

For the commodities market, crude oil price plunged by 0.90% to $51.70 per barrel amid yesterday EIA Crude Oil Investories data showed the weekly change in number of barrels of crude oil held by US firms does not up to the expectations. The economists forecast of the data was -2.400M barrels while the data actual reading was came in at -1.680M only. Besides, gold price inched up 0.13% to $1294.65 per ounce amid Dollar market sentiment faded which lead to safe heaven asset demand increased.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

23:00                     CAD                       BoC Monetary Policy Report

23:30                     GBP                       BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

 DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior gap down from the top level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the index to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 95.15.

Resistance level: 95.60, 96.00

Support level: 95.15, 94.60

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near the support level at 1.2700. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1.2785.

Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.2855

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2600

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher in the sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1430. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the support level at 1.1430.

Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1515

Support level: 1.1430, 1.1410

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 108.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 109.45.

Resistance level: 109.45, 110.25

Support level: 108.55, 107.70

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7150. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 0.7235.

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7300

Support level: 0.7150, 0.7100

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous the resistance level at 0.6740. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6765.

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6790

Support level: 0.6740, 0.6715

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3280. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3190.

Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3190, 1.3140

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher in the sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9790. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the channel’s top level at 0.9855.

Resistance level: 0.9825, 0.9855

Support level: 0.9790, 0.9755

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 49.75. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 51.05.

Resistance level: 51.05, 52.90

Support level: 49.75, 48.35

GOLD_H1: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1282.65. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 1282.65.

Resistance level: 1289.70, 1296.95

Support level: 1282.65, 1277.10

9 January 2019   Afternoon Session Analysis

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Trade talk sparks optimism in the market.

US dollar edges lower during mid-Asian trading session following higher optimism which surrounds trade talk between United States and China. As of writing, the dollar index depreciates by 0.11% to 95.32 against six major peers. Increasing positive sentiment and demand for riskier assets has helped to lift the Australian dollar after US government officials announced that trade talks between Washington and Beijing will continue for an unscheduled third day this Wednesday. Following the news, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.32% to 0.7161. Australian dollar is often being seen as a proxy for China’s growth as Beijing is the largest importer of Australia’s commodities and goods. In addition, the greenback received further setbacks following dovish statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell which noted some downside risks on US economic growth and progression. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.18% to 1.2740. Economist is expecting pound sterling to remain volatile over the next few weeks as UK attempts to resolve Brexit conundrum.

As for commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 1.43% to $50.39 per barrel. The commodity received stronger bullish support amid higher optimism for a trade war resolution between US and China. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat around $1,284.24 a troy ounce while market participants monitor the outcome of trade talks.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     CAD                        BoC Monetary Policy Report

23:30                     GBP                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for further signal before entering the market.

Resistance level: 95.50, 95.80

Support level: 95.00, 94.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2830

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2630

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following prior rebound near the support level at 1.1450. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the target at 1.1450.

Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its uptrend after successfully breaking the downward trendline.

Resistance level: 109.60, 110.20

Support level: 108.40, 106.75

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.7145. However, MACD which begins to form a bearish divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after a successful close below 0.7145.

Resistance level: 0.7255, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after breaking the downward trendline.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level at 1.3665. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.3220.

Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3120

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9815, 0.9840

Support level: 0.9790, 0.9770

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance level of 50.55. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further upwards after a successful close above 50.55.

Resistance level: 50.55, 52.90

Support level: 48.35, 44.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and momentum suggests its prices to experience technical correction and to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1284.35, 1303.00

Support level: 1263.20, 1254.15