Daily Analysis

14 November 2018                           Morning Session Analysis

Is Brexit deal right around the corner?

Greenback retraced from its prior high on Tuesday following a surge in pound sterling after EU and Britain agreed to a draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement. UK Prime Minister is expected to hold a Cabinet meeting today to present the drafted Brexit agreement among her senior ministers. In addition, a summit with the EU could occur as soon as November 25^th, signaling for the end of Brexit risks which lingers upon Britain for the past two years. However, skepticism still lingers among investors as it may face a stiff challenge in the Cabinet. May does not have a majority in the parliament and she faces opposition from Labor Party as well as from within her Conservative Party. On the other hand, US dollar was met with cynicism among market participants after economists warned that the gap between US interest rates and the rest of the world will likely narrow starting next year. As such, investors may turn their attention towards other assets which may follow Federal Reserve’s part in tightening their monetary policy amid rising inflationary pressure. As of writing, US dollar was down 0.59% to 96.93 while pair of GBP/USD was up 0.34% to 1.3022.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.89% to $55.72 per barrel as it rebounds from the lower level. On yesterday, the commodity price fell more than 7% after OPEC monthly report shows that the cartel and Russian crude production continues to climb in October, offsetting losses from US lead sanction against Iran. Otherwise, gold price mends its losses by 0.07% to $1,202.92 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

07:00 (15^th)          USD                         Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 96.60.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.60, 96.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the target of 1.3015. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target.

Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100

Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the downward trendline. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1330, 1.1385

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1240

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.

Resistance level: 114.20, 114.55

Support level: 113.85, 113.70

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7170. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 0.7170.

Resistance level: 0.7250, 0.7275

Support level: 0.7220, 0.7200

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 0.6770.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6805

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level near 1.3210.

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3220

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3155

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.0055. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140

Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 57.00, 59.45

Support level: 55.35, 53.90

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded flat and currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains after a breakout occur at the trendline.

Resistance level: 1206.00, 1215.95

Support level: 1198.00, 1190.00

13 November 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar retrace while investors awaiting for Core CPI

Greenback retrace against a basket of six major currencies after hitting a high level since 20^th June 2017 while investors are keeping their eyes on US Core CPI data which will be released tomorrow. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, Core CPI data was assumed to come in at 0.2%, slightly higher than previous month 0.1%. The recent U.S crucial data such as PPI data which been released last Friday portrays that the United States economy is still remained resilient. It also implies that the Core CPI data might be favored toward the market as CPI and PPI both are used to quantify price fluctuations for goods and services. As of writing, dollar index tumbled 0.02% to 97.30. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD spiked 0.22% to 1.2875 during Asian trading session despite the Brexit issues remain unsolved. According to Reuters, Brexit’s talk are still stalled over a disagreement regarding to Northern Irish backstop issues, an insurance policy to assure that there will be no return to a hard border on the island of Ireland if a future trading relationship is not agreed in time.

In the commodities market, crude oil notched up 0.48% to $59.05 despite US President Donald Trump put pressure on OPEC not to cut supply to prop up the market. Donald trump accused Saudi Arabia and OPEC that the crude oil prices should be much lower based on the current supply, said in a Twitter post on Monday. Moreover, gold price surged 0.36% to $1204.65 amid dollar’s weakness.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

19:20                     CrudeOIL             OPEC Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.45, 97.75

Support level: 97.05, 96.75

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2845. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2920.

Resistance level: 1.2920, 1.2960

Support level: 1.2845, 1.2780

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1215. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1255.

Resistance level: 1.1255, 1.1315

Support level: 1.1215, 1.1175

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 113.65. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 114.05.

Resistance level: 114.05, 114.25

Support level: 113.65, 113.55

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7210. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7210.

Resistance level, 0.7210, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7145

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6710. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend higher toward the resistance level at 0.6755.

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6790

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6675

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3205.

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3245

Support level: 1.3205, 1.3180

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0105. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1.0080.

Resistance level: 1.0105, 1.0125

Support level: 1.0080, 1.0045

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level at 59.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 58.65.

Resistance level: 59.55, 61.25

Support level: 58.65, 57.05

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1200.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1204.65.

Resistance level: 1204.65, 1211.20

Support level: 1200.25, 1196.00

13 November 2018                           Morning Session Analysis

Dollar triumph as Brexit tows sterling down.

US dollar peaks at 17-months high against other major currencies on Monday following a large selloff on the pound sterling amid gloomy Brexit headlines. On yesterday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokesperson denied a report claiming that the main elements of Brexit deal from the EU could be presented to the UK as soon as Tuesday. Such headlines have dialed down market participants sentiment towards UK as they may evoke “hard” Brexit with EU. With under five months until Brexit, talks between both nations have stalled over a disagreement on the Ireland border issues and backstop plan. At the same time, PM May’s attempt to unblock negotiations by considering a customs union and extending the Brexit date till end of December 2021 has angered both Eurosceptics and EU supporters within her Conservative Party. For the time being, negotiations are expected to continue within this week but officials are warned that unless there is progress by end of Wednesday, there is unlikely to have a summit this month to strike a Brexit deal. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.63% to 97.46 while pairing of GBP/USD ticked down 0.15% to 1.2853.

In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged 1.27% to $58.95 per barrel after US President Donald Trump tweeted that he hopes OPEC would not cut their production number next year while calling for a lower oil prices in the future. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.28% to $1,201.96 a troy ounce following stronger US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:20                     CrudeOIL                OPEC Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was opened lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.40, 97.80

Support level: 97.00, 96.60

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2895, 1.2955

Support level: 1.2805, 1.2690

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross formation suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1140

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 114.20. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 113.30.

Resistance level: 113.85, 114.20

Support level: 113.30, 112.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level at 0.7220. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 0.7170.

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7220

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7135

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 0.6700.

Resistance level: 0.6735, 0.6770

Support level: 0.6700, 0.6660

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3255.

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3320

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3155

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a negative divergence signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.

Resistance level: 1.0140, 1.0190

Support level: 1.0095, 1.0055

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 59.45, 62.00

Support level: 58.65, 57.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term, towards 1206.00.

Resistance level: 1206.00, 1215.95

Support level: 1198.00, 1190.00

12 November 2018                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remains solid amid expected policy tightening.

US dollar continue to inch higher following increasing expectation on Fed to keep tightening monetary policy. Following an upbeat economy data and rising wage pressures, the Fed has reaffirmed its plan and expected to hike interest rate by 25 basis points in December. It is also speculated that there will be two more potential rate hikes by mid-2019. Besides that, Fed hawkish tone on last week policy meeting remains to provide support and bullish momentum for the dollar. As of writing, dollar index has rose 0.10% to 96.80. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has slumped 0.34% to 1.2927 at the time of writing amid continuous Brexit fears where negotiations remain stuck over backup plans for Ireland border issue if both countries unable to reach a deal.

As for commodities market, crude oil price soars 1.67% to $60.80 per barrel after amid Saudi Arabia has announced a reduction in supply and plans to reduce oil supply to global markets by 0.5 million bpd in December. On the other hand, gold price recovers 0.04% to 1210.11 amid bid safe haven from equity selloffs.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:30 (13^th)          USD                                        FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level 96.65. MACD which indicated starting of bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.90.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.45

Support level: 96.40, 96.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 1.2950. MACD which show diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2950.

Resistance level: 1.2950, 1.2995

Support level: 1.2930, 1.2890

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1310. MACD which display bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to traded higher in short term as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1365.

Resistance level: 1.1365, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1310, 1.1255

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.75. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 114.05

Resistance level: 114.05, 114.50

Support level: 113.75, 113.45

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7235. Due to the lack of clear direction and signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appears such as breakout from the nearest resistance or support level before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7260

Support level: 0.7215, 0.7185

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.6720. Due to the lack of clear direction and signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appears such as breakout from the nearest resistance or support level before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6790

Support level: 0.6720, 0.6690

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3180. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.3215.

Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3180, 1.3145

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.0065. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.0065.

Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0080

Support level: 1.0035, 0.9990

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level 60.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.40.

Resistance level: 61.40, 62.60

Support level: 60.40, 59.55

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1207.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross suggest the pair extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1212.50

Resistance level: 1212.50, 1222.00

Support level: 1207.50, 1202.00

12 November 2018                           Morning Session Analysis

Dollar-bulls reinforced, eyes over CPI.

US dollar was opened slightly higher for the week following optimistic US economic data which were released last Friday. The dollar index was up 0.09%, last seen around 96.80 during early Asian trading session. Last week, US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that regional Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% for the month of October, exceeding economist expectation for an increase of 0.2%. The data has further cemented investor’s expectation towards Federal Reserve which has previously indicated to continue their monetary policy tightening and hike interest rate this December. As for the week, investors would continue to monitor on upcoming economic releases with higher scrutiny upon Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is scheduled to be release this Wednesday. The data could provide further confirmation of rising inflationary pressure – one of the main worries of Federal Reserve. On the other hand, pound sterling was opened lower by 0.22% to 1.2941 this morning. Sterling received higher volume of selloff after UK Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to cancel a last-minute cabinet meeting for Brexit negotiation due to disagreements in her Conservative party while EU leaders in Brussels were unimpressed with her efforts.

As for commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 1.49% to $60.70 per barrel after OPEC and its allies allegedly started to lay the groundwork to cut oil supply in 2019. The cartel also warned in a statement that a “new strategy” is needed, raising investor’s prospect for wider and coordinated supply cut in 2019. On the other hand, gold price tacks up 0.11% to $1,211.10 a troy ounce following equity selloff in Asian region.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                   Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

03:30 (13^th)          USD                                        FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 96.60. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.60, 96.20

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3015

Support level: 1.2895, 1.2805

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction after closing above 1.1330.

Resistance level: 1.1330, 1.1385

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1240

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance level at 113.85. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 114.20.

Resistance level: 114.20, 114.55

Support level: 113.85, 113.30

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7250, 0.7275

Support level: 0.7220, 0.7205

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3115

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing near the support level of 1.0055. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.0055.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140

Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 61.05, 62.50

Support level: 60.00, 58.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1215.95, 1228.00

Support level: 1206.00, 1198.00

9 November 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback spiked amid Fed hawkish decision

Dollar index surged against its six major peers to one week high after US Federal Reserve maintain the interest rates unchanged while reaffirmed its tightening monetary policy stance. According to US central bank, the interest rate was held at 2.25%, in tandem with economists’ forecast while staying on the track to gradually tighten their monetary policy. The Fed emphasized that the depreciation in unemployment rate showed that US economic outlook has been rising strongly. As of now, U.S central bank has rose it interest rate three times this year and although the Fed meeting outcome and statement on yesterday did not generate any major surprise toward the market, it has reinforced the view for yet another rate hike in December. As of writing, dollar index notched up 0.04% to 96.55. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD tumbled 0.10% to 1.3045 during the Asian trading session amid Brussels plans to push for a customs border in the Irish Sea if UK and EU failed to achieve a Brexit agreement. However, the government of UK will not agree to anything that bring about hard border on the island of Ireland and will not accept the UK being divided into two customs territories, Theresa May repeated.

In the commodities market, crude oil notched down 0.33% to $60.55 per barrel amid oil production from United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia continue to grow while demand of oil from the global economy starting to show a signs of slowdown. Next, gold dipped 0.38% to $1218.70 amid higher demand for US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 96.55.

Resistance level: 96.55, 96.85

Support level: 96.35, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3145

Support level: 1.3015. 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.1370. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1370, 1.1410

Support level: 1.1335, 1.1315

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 114.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 113.80.

Resistance level: 114.05, 114.25

Support level: 113.80, 113.55

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.7235. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout from the support level at 0.7235.

Resistance level: 0.7260, 0.7295

Support level: 0.7235, 0.7210

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 0.6755. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6715.

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6790

Support level: 0.6715, 0.6675

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3185. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.3185.

Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3210

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3100

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.0060. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0080.

Resistance level: 1.0080, 1.0105

Support level: 1.0060, 1.0020

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 60.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 61.25.

Resistance level: 61.25, 62.60

Support level: 60.45, 59.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1221.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1215.15.

Resistance level: 1221.45, 1225.50

Support level: 1215.15, 1203.80

9 November 2018                              Morning Session Analysis

Fed remains hawkish, dollar propels higher.

US dollar extended its gains on Friday morning after Federal Reserve delivered an upbeat assessment on the economy while signaling that a December interest rate hike remains on track. The dollar index rose 0.66%, last seen around 96.43 during early Asian trading session. As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve left their interest rate unchanged at 2.25% but delivered a positive outlook upon the economy and labor market. While the Fed took note of recent depreciating unemployment and slightly softer GDP for third quarter, the central bank postulate that strong economic activity and household spending is still on tow to support the inflation at around 2%. Thus, they reiterated to continue with gradual rate hike in the future with at least four times next year. On the other hand, pound sterling received some bearish pressure on yesterday following bearish Brexit headlines. According to reports, UK government officials has downplayed rumors that a Brexit agreement was imminent after an article suggests that Britain and EU could seal a divorce deal in the next few days. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.3066.

As for commodities market, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.05% to $60.71 per barrel. The commodity price received bearish pressure after EIA reported that US weekly crude output has attain a new record high of 11.6 million barrels per day. On the other hand, gold price was down by 0.07% to $1,222.88 a troy ounce following higher prospect towards the next interest rate hike scheduled in December.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 96.60, 97.00

Support level: 96.20, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 1.3100. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target of 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3175

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2955

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1415

Support level: 1.1330, 1.1280

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 114.20, 114.55

Support level: 113.85, 113.30

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7315

Support level: 0.7250, 0.7205

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing near 1.3155. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target of 1.3155.

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3210

Support level: 1.3115, 1.3080

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level near 1.0055. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 1.0055.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140

Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its losses in tandem with the major bearish trend. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down, towards the target of 60.00.

Resistance level: 61.05, 62.50

Support level: 60.00 , 58.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1215.95.

Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.25

Support level: 1215.95, 1206.00

8 November 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar rebound amid election’s knee jerk reaction.

Greenback recouped part of its losses against a basket of six major currencies after hitting two week low amid market participants digested the bearish sentiment from U.S midterm election results. The election result were as the market expected where there is a split of Congress with Democratic winning the control of House Representatives and Republicans managed to retain the majority seats in Senate. Thus, Dollar index received strong selling pressures from the market as the likelihood of further fiscal stimulus faded. Besides, Democrats who surged to power in the house are prepare to launch an investigation into Donald Trump regarding to Trump’s long hidden tax returns, scandals between Russia and Trump’s campaign team in 2016 election and so on. On the other side, dollar rebound as investors start shifting away their focus from post-election result to the Fed’s monetary policy which will due on later today. As of now, the positive economic outlook growth in US has caused the Fed to raise their interest rate three times this year and Fed signaled a rate of rise in December with two more hikes by mid of 2019. As of writing, Dollar index spiked 0.25% to 96.00. On the other hand, pair of NZD/USD remained flat at 0.6780 amid RBNZ governor decided to cement their interest rate at 1.75% as economist forecast despite New Zealand is undergoing acceleration of inflation rate and low unemployment rates now.

In the commodities market, crude oil surged 0.18% to $61.65 per barrel amid OPEC and its allies may initiate output curbs next year in order to prevent global oversupply. On the other hand, gold tumbled 0.23% to 1223.55 amid Dollar’s recovery.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

17:00                     EUR                        ECB Economic Bulletin

Tentative             EUR                        EU Economic Forecasts

03:00 (9^th)            USD                       FOMC Statement

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.00. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 96.00.

Resistance level: 96.00, 96.15

Support level: 95.70, 95.55

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3170. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3080.

Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3250

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3025

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trend line at 1.1425.  However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.1445.

Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1465

Support level: 1.1410, 1.1370

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 113.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 113.70.

Resistance level: 113.70, 114.00

Support level: 113.40, 113.15

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7295. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 0.7295.

Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7310

Support level: 0.7260, 0.7235

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.6790. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6790.

Resistance level: 0.6790, 0.6810

Support level: 0.6755, 0.6730

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3120. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3100.

Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3140

Support level: 1.3100, 1.3075

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0020. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.0020.

Resistance level: 1.0020, 1.0060

Support level: 0.9970, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 61.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 62.60.

Resistance level: 62.60, 63.75

Support level: 61.25, 60.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1228.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1220.80.

Resistance level: 1229.45, 1234.65

Support level: 1220.80, 1215.15

8 November 2018                              Morning Session Analysis

A split in the Congress upsets US dollar.

US dollar tumbles against other major currencies on yesterday as investors scrutinize the US midterm election results while waiting for the conclusion of Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting due tomorrow morning. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep their interest rates unchanged while market participants place their focus upon their statements for further clues with regards to future monetary policy stance. Overnight, US dollar received tremendous selling pressure after US midterm results shows a split in the congress. From the results, Democrats regain their control of US House of Representatives while Republicans remain in charge of the Senate. The split within the government sparked bearish sentiment as House Democrats may launch multiple investigation over Trump’s finances and possibility of Russian collusion with a more aggressive manner. Likewise, a split in the government would place some difficulty over Trump’s administration as any law or policy passage would require an approval from the House before passing towards the Senate. Moreover, the midterm results have tempered some investor’s sentiment towards future economic projection from the Fed as it has possibility to dial down the aggressiveness of future rate hike due to difficulty to pass through economic package or stimulus with heavy scrutiny from the Democrats. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.11% while last quoted at 95.95 during Asian trading session.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.13% to $61.63 per barrel after US Special Representative Brian Hook commented that the government is determined to push Iranian oil exports to zero within the next six months. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.04% to $1,226.18 a troy ounce following a rebound in the US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                   Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                   Event

17:00                     EUR                                        ECB Economic Bulletin

Tentative                EUR                                        EU Economic Forecasts

03:00 (9^th)             USD                                        FOMC Statement

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 96.20, 96.60

Support level: 95.95, 95.55

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.3175. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3275

Support level: 1.3100, 1.3015

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. While MACD illustrate a bearish signal, a break below the upward trendline is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1485

Support level: 1.1415, 1.1385

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level at 113.30. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of next target at 113.85.

Resistance level: 113.85, 114.20

Support level: 113.30, 112.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a negative divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7315

Support level: 0.7250, 0.7205

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.6805. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the support level of 1.3115. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 1.3115.

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3210

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3080

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 0.9960. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance near 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 0.9990, 0.9960

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 61.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 62.50, 63.80

Support level: 61.05, 60.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1215.95.

Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.25

Support level: 1215.95, 1206.00

7 November 2018                              Analisis Sesi Petang

Dolar ditekan oleh jangkaan pembelahan Kongres AS.

Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan lebih rendah berbanding dengan sekumpulan mata wang utama semasa sesi dagangan awal Asia di tengah-tengah pilihan raya dan juga isu politik di AS. Indeks dolar telah menurun sebanyak 0.23% ke 95.97 semasa penulisan. Merujuk kepada laman web pengundian FiveThirtyEight, peluang Demokrat untuk memenangi House telah meningkat sebanyak 70 peratus tetapi Republikan juga berkemungkinan besar untuk kekal menjadi Senate. Sebuah House yang dikuasai oleh Demokratik dengan kebanyakan senat yang dikawal oleh Republikan akan menyusahkan President AS Donald Trump untuk memperkenalkan pengesahan yang baru dan juga ia juga boleh meneruskan siasatan lanjut terhadap urusan beliau. Justerunya, ia telah menjejaskan keyakinan pelabur terhadap dolar. Dalam berita lain, pasangan EUR/USD telah meningkat sebanyak 0.27% ke 1.1465 akibat sentimen positif yang berasal dari bacaan data ekonominya. Menurut kepada Markit, data Composite PMI telah melebihi jangkaannya dengan bacaan 53.1 berbanding dengan 52.7. Pembacaan data yang positif telah menunjukkan kemajuan selanjutnya di ekonomi EU dan mengubah sentimen para pelabur kepada bullish terhadap mata wang Euro.

Untuk pasaran komoditi, harga minyak mentah telah melantun dari paras rendah sebanyak 0.31% ke $61.99 setong. Walau bagaimanapun, pemulihannya telah dihadkan oleh pengecualian sekatan Iran yang dikasihkan kepada 8 buah negara seperti China, India dan Korea Selatan. Di samping itu, harga emas telah melanjutkan keuntungannya sebanyak 0.22% ke $1229.58 se troy auns berikutan dengan penurunan dolar di tengah-tengah pilihan raya pertengahan.

Pasaran Tutup Hari Ini

Masa                     Pasaran Acara

N/A

Acara Kemuncak Hari Ini

Masa                     Pasaran Acara

04:00 (8hb)           NZD                        RBNZ Rate Statement

05:00                     NZD                        RBNZ Press Conference

Data Ekonomi Kemuncak Hari Ini

Analisis Teknikal

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 95.75. MACD yang menunjukkan isyarat momentum bearish serta formasi silang kematian mencadangkan dolar untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan di 94.40.

Tahap rintangan: 95.75, 96.15

Tahap sokongan: 95.40, 95.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi berikutan dengan pemecahan dari tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 1.3125. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bullish yang ketara mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.3175.

Tahap rintangan: 1.3175, 1.3275

Tahap sokongan: 1.3125, 1.3080

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 1.1445. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bullish yang berterusan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.1485.

Tahap rintangan: 1.1485, 1.1540

Tahap sokongan: 1.1445, 1.1410

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 113.35. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bearish serta formasi silang kematian mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan di 113.00.

Tahap rintangan: 113.35, 113.60

Tahap sokongan: 113.00, 112.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi berikutan dengan pemecahan dari tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 0.7250. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat bullish dan formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 0.7280.

Tahap rintangan: 0.7280, 0.7315

Tahap sokongan: 0.7250, 0.7215

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi selepas ia memecahkan pada tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 0.6755. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bullish yang ketara mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 0.6785.

Tahap rintangan: 0.6785, 0.6820

Tahap sokongan: 0.6755, 0.6720

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan di 1.3115. MACD yang memaparkan isyarat momentum bearish serta formasi silang kematian mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan di 1.3075.

Tahap rintangan: 1.3115, 1.3150

Tahap sokongan: 1.3075, 1.3055

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF telah didagang dengan lebih rendah berikutan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 1.0025. MACD yang menunjukkan isyarat bearish yang berterusan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan 0.9975.

Tahap rintangan: 1.0025, 1.0065

Tahap sokongan: 0.9975, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H1: Harga minyak mentah telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan lantunan dari tahap sokongan di 61.40. MACD yang menunjukkan isyarat bullish dan formasi silang emas mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk melanjutkan lantunannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 62.60.

Tahap rintangan: 62.60, 63.90

Tahap sokongan: 61.40, 60.25

GOLD_, H1: Harga emas telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi berikutan dengan lantunan dari tahap sokongan 1225.25. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bullish serta formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan lantunannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 1230.60.

Tahap rintangan: 1230.60, 1237.80

Tahap sokongan: 1225.25, 1220.00

7 November 2018                              Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remains pressured amid Congress expected to split.

Dollar index was pressured against its basket of six major rival pairs during early Asian session amid election and political turmoil in US. As of writing, the dollar index fell 0.23% to 95.97 during Asian trading session. Based on the polling website FiveThirtyEight, the likelihood of the Democrats winning the House has jumped to 70 percent but Republicans are also likely to retain the Senate. A Democratic-controlled House with majority Republican Senate will cause President Trump having a hard time to introduce major new legislation and also it may pursue further investigations into Trump’s affairs, causing fear and loss of confidence in the dollar. On the other hand, EUR/USD soared 0.27% amid positive data. According to Markit, the composite index has improved to 53.1, higher than forecasted reading of 52.7. The positive reading illustrates further improvement in EU’s economy while changing investor’s sentiment towards bullish for the currency.

As for commodities market, crude oil price has rebound from lows by 0.31% to $61.99 per barrel. However, its recovery remains limited amid Iran sanction waiver that has been granted 8 countries such as China, India and South Korea. On the other hand, gold price extends its gains by 0.22% to $1,229.58 a troy ounce following dollar’s weakness caused by uncertainty in the mid-term election.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

04:00 (8^th)             NZD                                        RBNZ Rate Statement

05:00                     NZD                                        RBNZ Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following a breakout below the previous support 95.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 95.40.

Resistance level: 96.15, 96.35

Support level: 95.40, 95.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following a breakout above previous resistance level 1.3125. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3175.

Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3275

Support level: 1.3125, 1.3080

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1445. MACD which illustrate continuous bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1485.

Resistance level: 1.1485, 1.1540

Support level: 1.1445, 1.1410

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following breakout below the previous support level 113.35. MACD which display bearish momentum with formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 113.00.

Resistance level: 113.35, 113.60

Support level: 113.00, 112.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following a breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7250. MACD which illustrate bullish signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7280.

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7315

Support level: 0.7250, 0.7215

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6755. MACD which shows persistent bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains towards resistance level 0.6785

Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6820

Support level: 0.6755, 0.6720

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3115. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3075.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3150

Support level: 1.3075, 1.3055

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.0025. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9975.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0065

Support level: 0.9975, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 61.40. MACD which bullish signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 62.60.

Resistance level: 62.60, 63.90

Support level: 61.40, 60.25

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 1225.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 1230.60

Resistance level: 1230.60, 1237.80

Support level: 1225.25, 1220.00

7 November 2018                              Morning Session Analysis

Dollar subdued as mid-term results trickle in.

US dollar was traded lower against its rivals on Wednesday as investors shifted their focus towards US mid-term election results. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.02% to 95.97 during Asian trading session. According to some analysts, Republican stands a higher chance to gain its footing within the Senate and they may continue to implement their fiscal measures which includes a potential for second round of tax cuts and infrastructure spending program that may boost inflation and supports the currency. In addition, the greenback was kept on its backfoot following bearish employment data released on yesterday. According to US Labor Department, JOLTs Job Openings, a measure of labor demand fell to 7.009 million for the month of September, missing economist forecast for 7.100 million. For the time being, investors would continue to monitor the results which is expected to conclude during Asian session. On the other hand, pair of NZD/USD spiked up 1.18% to 0.6740 following bullish employment data from the region. For third quarter, New Zealand employment change rose to 1.1%, significantly higher than forecast of 0.5%. At the same time, the unemployment rate slipped from 4.5% to 3.9%, its lowest level in a decade.

As for commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 0.77% to $61.77 per barrel after reports showed that eight importers of Iranian crude such as China, India and South Korea will be allowed to purchase from the country “temporarily”. The report has dialed down market expectation that US-led sanction against Iran may cause crude supply disruption. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.06% to $1,227.78 a troy ounce following weaker dollar and higher uncertainty that stems from US mid-term election.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

04:00 (8^th)             NZD                       RBNZ Rate Statement

05:00                     NZD                      RBNZ Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after successfully breaking the upward trendline.

Resistance level: 96.20, 96.60

Support level: 95.95, 95.55

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.2955. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the target of 1.3175.

Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3275

Support level: 1.3100, 1.3015

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to illustrate golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1485.

Resistance level: 1.1485, 1.1540

Support level: 1.1415, 1.1385

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 112.95. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level near 112.95.

Resistance level: 113.30, 113.85

Support level: 112.95, 112.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance of 0.7250.

Resistance level: 0.7250, 0.7275

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7170

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 0.6700. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the target near 0.6805.

Resistance level: 0.6805, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3050

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 0.9990, 0.9960

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to experience technical correction and to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 62.50, 63.80

Support level: 61.05, 60.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10

Support level: 1228.00, 1215.95

5 November 2018            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar firmed despite upbeat data.

Greenback managed to hold its ground against a basket of major currencies after rebound from the one-week low following strong Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings been released last Friday. According to United States Department of Labor, Nonfarm Payrolls data came in at 250K, significantly higher than the economist forecast of 193K while Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data successfully achieved the forecasted target respectively at 3.7% and 3.1%. The data showed that US job growth rebounded significantly in October and wages recorded their largest annual gains in 9.5 years. However, gains on the US dollar remains limited as investors remained their focus on trade related tensions between US and China. As of writing, the dollar index notched down 0.04% to 96.25. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD climbed 0.15% to 1.2985 during Asian trading session. The Sterling-bull were boosted by the news regarding 95 percent of Britain’s withdrawal agreement was settled and negotiations were on going. However, there are some significant hurdles still remain in the Brexit negotiation process, UK’s Telegraph newspaper reported.

In the commodities market, crude oil notched down 0.25% to $62.65 per barrel amid US sanctions against Iran’s fuel exports was softened by waivers which allow major buyers to still import Iran crude oil at least temporarily. Next, gold plunged 0.07% to $1231.80 per troy ounce amid Dollar’s demand rebound.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

21:10                     CAD                       BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.30. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 96.30.

Resistance level: 96.30, 96.55

Support level: 96.00, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3015. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2960.

Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3080

Support level: 1.2960, 1.2875

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1375. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1375.

Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1375, 1.1335

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 113.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the support level at 113.25.

Resistance level: 113.25, 113.55

Support level: 112.65, 112.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.7185. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.7185.

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7250

Support level: 0.7185, 0.7140

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6635. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6635.

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6710

Support level: 0.6635, 0.6610

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.3110. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.3110.

Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3130

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3050

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0045. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.0045.

Resistance level: 1.0045, 1.0090

Support level: 1.0025, 1.0005

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 62.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 63.25.

Resistance level: 63.25, 64.20

Support level: 62.55, 61.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded in sideway channel following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1230.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1230.25.

Resistance level: 1237.40, 1247.50

Support level: 1230.25, 1221.45

Highlighted economy data and events for the week: November 5 – 9

5 November 2018                              Morning Session Analysis

Dollar-bull invigorates as NFP delivers.

Greenback rebounds from its session low last Friday following optimistic employment data which shows a sharp rebound last month. As of writing, the dollar index depreciates slightly by 0.15% to 96.26. According to the US Labor Department, the economy has added 250,000 jobs for the month of October, exceeding economist forecast of only 193,000 jobs. Likewise, wage growth came in within expectation at the rate of 0.2%, further cementing the outlook for higher inflationary pressure in the long-run if its rising pace persists. Overall, the optimistic jobs data has indicated that the labor market continued its resilience, underlining the case for further interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this coming December. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD depreciates by 0.08% to 1.3100 during early Asian trading session. Last Friday, the pair rebounds sharply from its weekly low following downbeat employment data from Canada. For the month of October, Canada’s economy generated only 11,200 jobs, lesser than economist forecast of 12,700 jobs. However, gains on the pair remains limited after unemployment rate depreciates from 5.9% to 5.8%, indicating further tightening in Canada’s labor condition.

As for commodities market, crude oil price mends its losses by 0.22% to $62.95 per barrel. However, the current upside on its prices remains limited following growing worries over future economic weakness which may dial down market demand for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price appreciates by 0.10% to $1,234.17 a troy ounce following slight weakness of the US dollar this morning.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

21:10                     CAD                       BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the support level of 96.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after a successful rebound from the support of 96.20.

Resistance level: 96.60, 97.00

Support level: 96.20, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3015. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target at 1.2955.

Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100

Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.1445. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support at 1.1385.

Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 112.60. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 113.30.

Resistance level: 113.30, 113.85

Support level: 112.95, 112.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 0.7250. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7170.

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7250

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7135

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.6660. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6660, 0.6700

Support level: 0.6610, 0.6575

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the threshold at 1.3115.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3050

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the support level of 1.0025. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0095

Support level: 1.0025, 0.9990

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a downtrend following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 62.50.

Resistance level: 63.80, 65.45

Support level: 62.50, 61.05

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. However, MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests its price to extend its losses in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10

Support level: 1228.00, 1215.95

2 November 2018            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar spiked despite downbeat data.

The dollar index surged against a basket of six major currencies after slumping to one-week low amid disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI data been released yesterday. According to Institute of Supply Management, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers index (PMI) came in at 57.7, lower than economist forecast level of 59.0. However, the demand is still remains moderately strong and backlogs orders has grown faster than they did in September, ISM emphasized. It depicts that the economic outlook of United States is still remain resilient. Meanwhile, investor eyes on busy day ahead, with key data scheduled for release out including October Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate along with US Average Hourly Earnings. NFP and US Average Hourly Earnings will remain as the key driver on the data front toward US Dollar. On the other hand, Sterling Pound rally on refreshed Brexit hopes yesterday as UK and EU has reached a milestone agreement where EU agreed to allow British financial services companies access to Europe market after Brexit. As of writing, Dollar index appreciated by 0.02% to 96.00 while GBP/USD tumbled 0.11% to 1.3000.

In the commodities market, crude oil notched up 0.35% to $63.70 per barrel amid US sanctions against Iran petroleum exports on this coming Sunday. Next, gold dipped 0.05% to $1232.40 per troy ounce amid Dollar recovered part of its losses.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar Index was trade lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.15. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 96.15.

Resistance level: 96.15, 96.30

Support level: 95.95, 95.75

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3015. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2960.

Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2960, 1.2930

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.1410. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1.1410.

Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1430

Support level: 1.1390, 1.1370

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 112.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 113.25.

Resistance level: 113.25, 113.55

Support level: 112.65, 112.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was trade higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7235. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7235.

Resistance level: 0.7235, 0.7275

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7175

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.6680. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6680.

Resistance level: 0.6680, 0.6710

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6610

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was trade lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3105

Support level: 1.3035, 1.2995

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.0010. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.0010.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0050

Support level: 1.0010, 0.9965

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 63.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 64.20.

Resistance level: 64.20, 64.85

Support level: 63.25, 62.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1230.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1237.65.

Resistance level: 1237.65, 1247.50

Support level: 1230.45, 1215.50