241018 Afternoon Session Analysis
24 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar flatten despite Wall Street closed lower.
US Dollar managed to hold against a basket of six major peer currencies after US market closed with loss. The poor performance of Wall Street spurring a risk off move that benefited the safe haven asset such as Japanese Yen and Gold as it imply that the outlook of US economic growth might be worsen. Although dollar is also categorized as a safe haven currency, but the weakness of US market has exerted negative momentum toward the greenback against other currency. However, the negative sentiment does not come into effect as majority of the market participants are still keeping their eyes on the coming announcement of September New Home Sales data. US Dollar notched down 0.03% to 95.65 as of writing. On the other hand, the pair of CAD/USD was traded lower 0.08% to 1.3075 while investor eyes on the BoC Interest Rate Decision later today. Although the domestic inflation and retails sales data of Canada was came in weaker than forecasted reading, but economist are still expect the Bank of Canada to raise its interest rate by 25 basis point to 1.75 percent.
In the commodities market, crude oil notched up 0.79% to $66.55 per barrel amid despite Saudi pledged to meet any supply shortfall that might happened due to the US sanctions against Iran. Next, gold price surged 0.14% to $1231.75 amid higher demand of safe haven along with a weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.7 | 53.5 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Gross Mortgage Approvals | 39.4K | 39.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Sep) | 629K | 630K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.75% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 6.490M | 3.694M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 95.75.
Resistance level: 95.75, 95.90
Support level: 95.50, 95.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short term toward downward trend line.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3065
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2905
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1455. MACD which illustrate starting upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term toward the resistance level at 1.1490.
Resistance level: 1.1490, 1.1530
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1430
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.70
Resistance level: 112.70, 112.90
Support level: 112.40, 112.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near resistance level at 0.7100. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout.
Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7065, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 0.6580. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 0.6580.
Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6605
Support level: 0.6535, 0.6495
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.3075. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend it losses after successfully breakout.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3075, 1.3050
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 0.9940.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0050
Support level: 0.9940, 0.9925
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 67.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 67.35.
Resistance level: 67.35, 68.50
Support level: 66.20, 64.20
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1229.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1229.50.
Resistance level: 1237.55, 1244.75
Support level: 1229.50, 1221.35
241018 Morning Session Analysis
24 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar flattens, risk-off dominates.
US dollar retraced from its prior two-months high on yesterday as risk aversion across the market boosted the demand for safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen and gold. In addition, the US dollar received additional bearish pressure following a rebound in pound sterling. The currency received some buybacks amid reports that the EU might offer UK Prime Minister Theresa May a UK-wide customs union in order to reach a Brexit deal. However, gains on the sterling were limited after several analysts downplayed the prospect to reach a deal anytime soon even though EU might offer UK a workaround on the Irish border issue. In the other region, Canadian dollar extended its gains since yesterday while investors eyes tonight’s interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada. While the central bank is widely expected to raise their interest rates, investors will be focusing on the statement and press conference from the bank to gauge their confidence towards Canadian economic progression. As of writing, the dollar index was flat around 95.63, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.01% to 1.2984 while pair of USD/CAD tumbles by 0.03% to 1.3082.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down 1.58% to $66.28 per barrel this morning. Sentiment towards the commodity turned sour after Saudi Arabia, world’s top oil exporter offered to maximize their output at a faster rate in order to curb the lack of supply as sanctions against Iran begins in two weeks. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.08% to $1,231.23 a troy ounce following risk-off sentiment in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 53.7 | 53.5 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Gross Mortgage Approvals | 39.4K | 39.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Sep) | 629K | 630K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.75% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 6.490M | 3.694M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 95.75.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2980.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2980, 1.2955
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1485, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1385
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a close above 112.45 is required to attain further upside bias confirmation.
Resistance level: 112.45, 112.70
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at 0.7090. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the target of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7045, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6610
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3080. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the next target near 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3115
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Recent formation of golden cross from MACD suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 66.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55
Support level: 66.10, 64.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1230.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1238.35, 1248.00
Support level: 1230.00, 1221.00
231018 Afternoon Session Analysis
23 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Safe-haven market gains amid Brexit woes.
Greenback strengthen amid current safe-haven position from risky markets uncertainties, especially from Brexit and Italy’s GDP budget plan. Market condition at early European trading session was slow except for the Japanese Yen market which receive a large buy-off as Brexit faces an impasse as UK Prime Minister Theresa May faces the pressure at EU and with her own Parliament. With the current decision to remain in a custom union with the EU, investors fear that the deadline for Brexit would be delayed longer. Further worsening investors’ risk appetite was the rejection of Italy’s GDP budget plan where they propose for a 2.4% of GDP to be used as government expenditure. The negative sentiment surrounding the risky assets influence the investors to shift their investment to safe haven market, increasing the dollar by 0.12% to 95.80 while pair of USD/JPY decreased by 0.32% to 112.40 as of writing.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged by 0.56% to $69.00 per barrel amid reports that Saudi Arabia promised to balance the shortfall of crude supply from the upcoming Iran sanction. On the other hand, gold price increases by 0.26% to $1,227.30 a troy ounce following higher demand amid lower risk appetite.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
23:20 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 18:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Oct) | -1 | -1 | – |
| 04:30 (24th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.100M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to retrace from the resistance level towards the support level 95.20.
Resistance level: 95.80, 96.30
Support level: 95.20, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2955. MACD which display bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3085
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1445. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1420
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 112.40. MACD which display bearish signal and the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 112.75, 113.20
Support level: 112.40, 111.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7080. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7040.
Resistance level: 0.7080, 0.7100
Support level: 0.7040, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6530. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6610
Support level: 0.6530, 0.6495
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3130. 1.3175
Support level: 1.3065, 1.3000
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the mid-level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after a breakout below the support level 0.9955.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0030
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9920
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the resistance level 69.80. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to be traded lower towards the support level 68.70.
Resistance level: 69.80, 71.00
Support level: 68.70, 67.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideway channel following prior breakout above the weak resistance level at 1225.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest gold price to be traded higher after a breakout above the channel.
Resistance level: 1229.35, 1233.50
Support level: 1225.05, 1220.40
231018 Morning Session Analysis
23 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling slides as Brexit turns ugly.
US dollar regains its bullish momentum against other major currencies following a large selloff in pound sterling amid Brexit issues and internal political stirrup. According to The Telegraph, a proposed amendment from a group of Brexiters within UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s party could effectively make the EU’s Irish border backstop proposal illegal. In addition to that, it was alleged that Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party whom works hand-in-hand to form May’s minority government gave their support towards the amendment. The report evoked higher risk aversion in the financial market as Theresa May will face leadership challenge as her attempts to unlock Brexit talks by extending the transition period beyond the end date received strong rejection from members within her party. As for now, investors will place their attention upon her party’s committee meeting which is scheduled to be held today to discuss Brexit negotiations and terms for further signals. As of writing, dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 95.72 while GBP/USD was down 0.05% to 1.2963.
As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.04% to $69.49 per barrel. The commodity price was traded in a sideways fashion as investors weigh the imminent outcome of Iran sanction and increasing supply from the United States. Otherwise, gold price notched up 0.05% to $1,222.70 a troy ounce following higher political and economic uncertainty that arises in the UK due to Brexit issues.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
23:20 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 18:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Oct) | -1 | -1 | – |
| 04:30 (24th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.100M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing at the strong resistance level of 95.75. While MACD has formed a bullish signal, a break above this level is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses while currently testing near the support level of 1.2955. MACD which has formed a death cross formation suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 1.2955.
Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1460. MACD which begins to form a death cross formation suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support of 1.1460.
Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1525
Support level: 1.1460, 1.1420
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which has formed a death cross formation suggests the pair to undergo technical correction and to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 113.05, 113.40
Support level: 112.70, 112.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.7090. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction near 0.7045.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7045, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the neckline of double top formation. Although MACD has formed a death cross signal, a break below the neckline is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6610
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following a retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3010
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the mid-level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which forms a death cross formation suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term after breaking the target near 69.30.
Resistance level: 69.75, 70.65
Support level: 69.30, 68.55
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently rebounded from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term after breaking the target of 1223.45.
Resistance level: 1223.45, 1228.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
221018 Afternoon Session Analysis
22 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar tumbled amid downbeat data
Dollar plunged against a basket of six major peer currencies due to releasement of poor results from the September U.S. Existing Home Sales last Friday. The data came in at only 5.15 million units, substantially lower than forecast of 5.30 million has exert downward pressure on the US dollar while implicating that the current housing market is weak. The data also implies that overall US economic strength may be jeopardized. In addition, following the death of columnist Jamal Khashoggi, US President Donald Trump criticized on Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir comments as he said the killing was a mistake and blamed it on a ‘rogue operation’. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.05% to 95.35 during early European trading session. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD managed to remain flat as majority of market participants are keeping their eyes on the news around Brexit and the controversial Italian budget proposal as the movement of Euro and Sterling pound become increasingly sensitive to these geopolitical factors. The pair of EUR/USD rose 0.01% to 1.1515.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was remained flat at $69.39 per barrel despite imminent US sanctions upon Iran that will start from early November. Next, gold price rose 0.12% to $1227.50 per troy ounce amid the impact of geopolitical tensions including murder of Washington post columnist, Italy’s budget and Brexit created high demand for safe haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day NZD New Zealand – Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 1.5% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 95.50. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the index to extend the losses toward the support level at 95.30.
Resistance level: 95.50, 95.70
Support level: 95.30, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the support level at 1.3065. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3125.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3065, 1.3015
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.1490. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1525.
Resistance level: 1.1525, 1.1545
Support level: 1.1490, 1.1430
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 112.40. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 112.80
Support level: 112.40, 112.20
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7105. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 0.7115.
Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6605. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 0.6605.
Resistance level: 0.6605, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6580, 0.6535
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3120. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3085.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3050
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.9975. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0050
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 68.25. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 70.75.
Resistance level: 70.75, 72.30
Support level: 68.70, 68.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1229.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1229.85.
Resistance level: 1229.85, 1237.00
Support level: 1221.35, 1217.05
221018 Morning Session Analysis
22 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Saudi rift dampens market risk sentiment.
Greenback extended its losses on Monday following weaker-than-expected housing data from the United States while investors digests the latest rift that surrounds Saudi Arabia. Last Friday, National Associations of Realtors reported that the existing home sales for the month of September slipped to 5.15 million, lower than economist forecast of 5.30 million. The sale of existing homes fell for sixth consecutive month with September notching its largest decline in more than two years’ time. In addition, recent rift in between Saudi Arabia and other global leaders has tempered investor’s sentiment towards risky assets, inducing higher risk aversion in the financial market. Following the death of Saudi Arabia prominent journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi crown prince faced increasing threat of US sanction. Although US President Donald Trump and others in his administration offered limited criticism, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin canceled his participation in a Saudi investment conference this week, mounting the pressure between both nations. On the other hand, Canadian dollar slumped further following disappointing Canadian retail sales and inflation data which may change Bank of Canada’s hawkish view towards the economy. As of writing, dollar index was down 0.04% to 95.37 while pairing of USD/CAD rose 0.02% to 1.3106.
As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.30% to $69.28 per barrel. Oil price experienced tremendous bearish pressure for the last two weeks following surging stockpiles and a rise in drilling activity in the US that may lead to higher supply in the market. On the other hand, gold price notched up 0.19% to $1,228.35 a troy ounce following higher geopolitical tension in between US and Saudi Arabia.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day NZD New Zealand – Labour Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 1.5% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term towards 95.50.
Resistance level: 95.50, 95.75
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the support level at 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3090, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3015
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.1495. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.1495.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1460
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the 60-MA line (green). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 112.45, 112.70
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the strong support of 0.7090. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the support level near 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6595, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6575, 0.6540
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3155.
Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3080, 1.3010
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the target of 0.9975.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 69.30, 70.65
Support level: 68.55, 67.35
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
191018 Afternoon Session Analysis
19 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar remained flat amid slow Friday trading.
Dollar index was traded flat prior to European trading session amid slow market on Friday as investors are waiting for any news that would provide sentiment towards the dollar. Dollar recently surged 0.33% to 94.70, a new high since 9th October amid hawkish sentiment from the Fed’s minute meeting where investors are expecting gradual rate hikes in the near future. Further supporting the dollar was yesterday’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index with a reading of 22.2, beating the forecasted data of 19.7. In other news, pair of GBP/USD was inched up by 0.03% to 1.3020 as of writing after falling to its 2-weeks low amid dovish sentiment from EU summit at Brussels yesterday. During the summit, UK Prime Minister Theresa May failed to propose a deal to solve the North Ireland border issue. Investors are afraid that the Brexit deadline will be delayed as the EU had also agreed that longer time is needed for a deal to meet.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down by 0.02% to $68.75 per barrel before European trading session. Sentiment towards the oil market remains cloudy since Wednesday Crude Oil Inventories data which indicates excess inventory. On the other hand, gold price was up 0.14% to $1,227.35 a troy ounce amid higher demand as investors flee from falling shares market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.9% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Sep) | 5.34M | 5.30M | – |
| 01:00 (20th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 869 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 95.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 95.80.
Resistance level: 95.80, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3030. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3165
Support level: 1.3030, 1.2955
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1460. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to rebound from the support level towards the resistance level 1.1495.
Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1460, 1.1420
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 112.50. MACD which display starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 112.50, 112.85
Support level: 111.90, 111.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7105. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7145.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7175
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7080
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6530. MACD which display starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6530, 0.6495
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3065. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3000.
Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2960
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9955. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0055
Support level: 0.9955, 0.9920
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 68.70. MACD which display starting bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 70.25.
Resistance level: 69.40, 70.25
Support level: 68.70, 67.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel after rebounding from the support level 1225.05. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout outside the sideway channel is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1230.20, 1236.50
Support level: 1225.05, 1217.80
191018 DOLLARINDX
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
191018 Morning Session Analysis
19 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Double optimism propels greenback.
Greenback climbs further against other major currencies on Thursday over the backdrop of optimistic US economic data which has reaffirmed investors expectation for gradual pace of interest rate hike from Federal Reserve. According to Philadelphia Fed, they reported that the manufacturing index for the region fell to a reading of 22.2 in the month of October, fared better-than-expected when compared to economist forecast for a slump of up till 19.7. At the same time, US Department of Labor found that the initial jobless claims for last week fell by 5,000 to a total of 210,000, beating economist forecast for a drop to 211,000. Both bullish reports have cemented overall sentiment towards further economic progression while reaffirming the hawkish call from Fed minutes to hike its interest rate gradually and well beyond neutral level in the long-run. On the other hand, safe-haven yen gained higher market demand following a sharp retreat on Wall Street which has prompted risk aversion in the market. Upon writing, dollar index notched up 0.43% to 95.67 while pairing of USD/JPY was down 0.02% to 112.16.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.25% to $68.84 per barrel. Recently, oil prices experience deep sell off following confusing signals from Saudi Arabia crisis over missing journalist while coupled with a large buildup of crude stocks from the United States for last week. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.02% to $1,226.06 a troy ounce amid higher risk aversion due to shares selloff.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.9% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Sep) | 5.34M | 5.30M | – |
| 01:00 (20th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 869 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.00
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded thinly while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3030. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3030, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2920
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was thinly traded and currently testing near the resistance level of 1.1460. MACD which begins to form golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target at 1.1460.
Resistance level: 1.1460, 1.1495
Support level: 1.1420, 1.1370
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.7090. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3175
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3010
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains following prior closure above the resistance of 0.9945. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the resistance of 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0055
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 69.30, 70.65
Support level: 67.35, 66.10
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
181018 Afternoon Session Analysis
18 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar hiked after hawkish FED minutes.
Dollar edged up against six major peers on Thursday after minutes showed Federal Reserve policy maker is likely to continue increasing interest rates after this year. According to the minutes from the meeting, every Fed policymaker backed on raising interest rate last month and majority agreed the interest rate to rise further. Federal Reserve emphasized that it would be the best way to preserve a steady economy although that may not satisfy President Donald Trump, who criticized central bank’s actions few days ago. Nonetheless, FED Minutes still generated positive sentiment toward the market participants, thus Dollar index rose 0.10% to 95.35 as of writing. On the other hand, the pair of GBPUSD tumbled 0.12% to 1.3095 amid soft CPI data on September where dropped to 2.4% while the market forecasted CPI was 2.6%. Besides, problem of Irish border backstop that threaten the Brexit deal also exerted bearish momentum against Sterling Pound.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.31% to 69.76 per barrel amid the U.S Crude Oil Inventories level, 6.490 million barrels is higher than forecasted level of 1.600 million barrels. Next, gold was traded up 0.12% to 1223.55 as of writing amid the FED Minutes spurred US Dollar, thus demand for safe haven assets fell.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 22.9 | 19.7 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Oct) | 17.6 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar Index was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 95.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 95.50.
Resistance level: 95.50, 95.75
Support level: 95.00, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.3125. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3065.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3065, 1.3030
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.1525. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1470.
Resistance level: 1.1525, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1470, 1.1430
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 112.70. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 112.40.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.00
Support level: 112.40, 112.05
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term after breaking the resistance level at 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6590. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 0.6530.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6635
Support level: 0.6530, 0.6495
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.3010. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3120
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2965
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.9945. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9925
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 69.60. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 70.65.
Resistance level: 70.65, 72.30
Support level: 69.60, 68.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1221.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term after breaking the support level at 1221.55.
Resistance level: 1229.85, 1237.70
Support level: 1221.55, 1217.05
171018 Afternoon Session Analysis
17 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar rises amid economy recovery sentiment.
Dollar index rebound from 3-week low, appreciating by 0.20% to 94.90 during early European trading session amid a rebound on three main Wall Street indices. The strong earnings from blue-chips provided a positive sentiment towards US economy growth despite gradual rate hikes and tensions from the ongoing trade wars. Further boosting the sentiment was yesterday’s JOLTs Job Openings data which reflects growing working industry with an actual reading of 7.136M compared to the forecasted value of 6.945M. In other news, pair of GBP/USD was down by 0.09% to 1.3170 ahead of EU summit where UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to provide a win-win proposal which includes the Northern Ireland border issue in order for the success of Brexit deal. Investors exit the pound market while waiting for further sentiment from the summit.
As for commodities market, crude oil was traded flat at $71.95 per barrel while investors wait for today’s Crude Oil Inventories data to further confirm the price direction of crude oil. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.18% to $1,222.60 a troy ounce following dollar rebound.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Chung Yeung Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Economic Forecasts
02:00 (18th） USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.7% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.1% | 2.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Sep) | 1.249M | 1.278M | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.9% | -0.6% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.987M | 2.167M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 94.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 95.00
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.35
Support level: 94.55, 94.20
GPBUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3180. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3115.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3245
Support level: 1.3115, 1.3030
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1570. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1540.
Resistance level: 1.1570, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1540, 1.1510
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 112.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.90.
Resistance level: 112.50, 112.85
Support level: 111.90, 111.35
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7140. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7160
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7085
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.6575. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after a breakout below the support level 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6675
Support level: 0.6575, 0.6530
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2960. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3000
Support level: 1.2920, 1.2880
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded within a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 0.9860. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9800
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 72.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 72.00, 73.55
Support level: 72.25, 68.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1225.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the gold to extend its losses towards the support level 1217.80.
Resistance level: 12225.05, 1233.65
Support level: 1217.80, 1210.35
171018 Morning Session Analysis
17 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar endures while awaits FOMC minutes.
Greenback was lifted off its session low on yesterday while investors ponder upon the release of FOMC meeting minutes due early tomorrow morning. Overnight, US dollar received some bullish buyback after US Labor Department reported that its latest JOLTs Job Openings showed higher than expected reading with 7.136 million, exceeding expectation for a reading of 6.945 million. The rising number of job openings came as unemployment rate depreciates to its lowest level in 49 years, reaffirming investor’s sentiment that the US labor market would continue its resilience. However, gains on the greenback were limited as pound sterling extended its rally on yesterday due to upbeat jobs data in relation to wage growth. For the month of August, Average Earnings Index with inclusion of bonus rose 2.7%, exceeding economist forecast of 2.6%. A persistent rise in wage may contribute to higher inflationary pressure and warrant for yet another rate hike from the Bank of England in the long-run. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.03% to 94.73 while pairing of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.3187.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.04% to $72.18 per barrel. Oil prices edged up cautiously on yesterday over the backdrop of imminent US sanctions upon Iran may lead to shortage of supply in the future. On the other hand, gold price was down 0.02% to $1,225.32 a troy ounce following a recovery of market sentiment and US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day HKD Hong Kong – Chung Yeung Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Economic Forecasts
02:00 (18th） USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.7% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.1% | 2.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Sep) | 1.249M | 1.278M | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) | 0.9% | -0.6% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.987M | 2.167M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a descending wedge while currently testing at the top level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the index to extend its gains after successfully breaking the top level of the wedge.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.35
GPBUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which shows the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3130
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1630
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1550
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal and momentum suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the target at 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.15, 111.90
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate imminent formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 0.7150, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7130, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the support level at 0.6540. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6615, 0.6660
Support level: 0.6575, 0.6540
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.9905 and downward trendline. Although MACD illustrate persistent upward signal, a break above 0.9905 is required in order to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after a successful rebound from 72.00.
Resistance level: 73.70, 75.00
Support level: 72.00, 70.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the upper levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
161018 Afternoon Session Analysis
16 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar climbed despite downbeat data.
US Dollar strengthen against a basket of six major currencies despite announcement of poor Retail Sales Data on yesterday generated negative sentiment to the market. Retail sales rose by 0.1% last month while the economist forecasted up to 0.7% in total value of retail sales level. Nevertheless, US Dollar notched up 0.09% to 94.80 as of writing. US Dollar trade strongly more or less was due to weaker equities and broader risk-off mood in the global market as one would expect. Besides, economists commented that the strength and confidence of the consumer are still intact while consumer spending will be remained robust in the coming quarter and boost up the retails sales in the coming months. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD fell 0.05% to 1.3145 amid Brexit deal hit stumbling block as two parties are still disagreed with certain issue such as Irish border question. Moreover, market participants are still waiting for the announcement of Average Earnings Index and Bonus for further action as a lower than expected reading could exert bearish momentum upon pound sterling.
In the commodities market, crude oil price hiked 0.35% to $71.90 amid signs on Iranian oil exports this month have tighten from September ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran that planned to start on November. The oil export from Iran declined from 1.6 million to 1.33 million barrel per day in first two weeks of October. On the other hand, gold price down 0.10% to 1225.50 after hitting 11 weeks high as dollar rebound.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) | 2.6% | 2.6% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Sep) | 8.7K | 4.5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) | -10.6 | -12.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) | 6.939M | 6.945M | – |
| 04:30 (17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 9.750M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 94.60. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward its resistance level at 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.30
Support level: 94.60, 94.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3165. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward its resistance level at 1.3165.
Resistance level: 1.3165, 1.3250
Support level: 1.3125, 1.3035
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1605. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1545.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1665
Support level: 1.1545, 1.1525
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 112.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.25.
Resistance level: 112.25, 112.50
Support level: 112.05, 111.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7140. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 0.7105.
Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6590. MACD which illustrate starting of bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 0.6545.
Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6605
Support level: 0.6545, 0.6530
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2965. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 1.2965.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2940
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9860. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward its resistance level at 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9945
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 71.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 72.40.
Resistance level: 72.40, 73.30
Support level: 71.00, 69.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1228.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 1217.05
Resistance level: 1228.75, 1233.10
Support level: 1217.05, 1208.95
161018 Morning Session Analysis
16 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Soft data tranquilizes dollar-bulls.
Greenback backtracks its prior gains on Monday after US economic data came in softer-than-expected which has raised investor’s concern upon Federal Reserve to follow through their plans for further rate hike in the future. The US Commerce Department reported yesterday that US Core Retail Sales fell by 0.1%, missing economist forecast for an expansion of up to 0.4%. Softness in the data was largely due to a diminished spending at restaurants and bars which fell to its lowest level in nearly two years. However, the report noted that consumer spending is still upbeat and it may continue to boost regional economic growth despite some slack. Any data which is related to consumer spending are critical for the United States as it accounts for more than two third of its economic activity. On the other hand, pound sterling was thinly traded during Asian trading session after UK Prime Minister Theresa May told parliament on Monday that while talks with EU has progressed significantly, the status of Irish border remains as the main issue. Thus, investors will continue to observe further updates with regards to Brexit for further signals. As of writing, dollar index fell 0.01% to 94.70 while GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.3153.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.26% to $71.94 during Asian session. The commodity was traded in a volatile fashion as investors digests the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist that may spark geopolitical tension and crude supply disruption. On the other hand, gold price was up 0.03% to $1,227.49 a troy ounce following slight weakness on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug) | 2.6% | 2.6% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Sep) | 8.7K | 4.5K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) | -10.6 | -12.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Aug) | 6.939M | 6.945M | – |
| 04:30 (17th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 9.750M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the threshold of 95.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to extend its losses after breaking the support of 94.65.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.35
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3210
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3090
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the resistance of 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1550
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal and momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance at 111.90.
Resistance level: 111.90, 112.15
Support level: 111.60, 111.15
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing near the mid-level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7150, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7130, 0.7090
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout near 0.6540. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6575.
Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6615
Support level: 0.6540, 0.6500
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the strong resistance of 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction, towards the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2900
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Both lines which has formed a death cross signal and continues to expand downwards suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9850.
Resistance level: 0.9885, 0.9905
Support level: 0.9850, 0.9810
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. Although MACD illustrate persistent upward signal, a close above 72.00 is required to further validate its bullish momentum.
Resistance level: 72.00, 73.70
Support level: 70.65, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing near the threshold of 1228.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 1228.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
151018 Afternoon Session Analysis
15 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar rose as demand increased.
Dollar index climbed against six major peers amid Britain’s failure to come out with a Brexit deal that majority of the investor expects it would be announced within this week. According to UK’s Financial Times, Prime Minister Theresa May call the current draft Brexit deal as “Non-Starter” while EU leaders may cancel plans for special summit in November due to slow progress in negotiations. In addition, Brexit negotiations took another hit after stumbling upon progress-block whereby the issue between Northern Ireland and Ireland’s hard border is still unresolved while a win-win solution is still not being achieved by both Britain and Brussels. Therefore, market participant turns their investment from Pound Sterling to US Dollar due to the latter’s status being the next safe haven’s currency. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon the release of Retail Sales data from US later today for further market signals. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.11% to 94.95 while pairing of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.33% to 1.3110.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was up 0.94% to $72.15 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions over the sudden disappearance of post columnist Jamal Khashoggi from Saudi Arabia, prompting scrutiny from the international spotlight which may jeopardize the country’s supply. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.35% to $1,222.00 per troy ounce as Brexit ongoing conundrum catalyzed higher safe haven demand in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A N/A N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A N/A N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 19.00 | 20.40 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) | 0.6% | 0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 94.90. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward its support level at 95.20.
Resistance level: 95.20, 95.60
Support level: 94.90, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.3125. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward its support level at 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3125, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3055, 1.3035
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1600. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward its support level at 1.1525.
Resistance level: 1.1600, 1.1665
Support level: 1.1525, 1.1475
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 112.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward its support level at 111.90.
Resistance level: 112.05, 112.55
Support level: 111.90, 111.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7125. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7065.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7065, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6485.
Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6595
Support level: 0.6485, 0.6455
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3065. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward its support level at 1.2990.
Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2990, 1.2940
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.9900. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward its resistance level at 0.9945.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975
Support level: 0.9900, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 70.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 72.50.
Resistance level: 72.50, 73.35
Support level: 70.75, 69.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1223.20. MACD which suggest diminishing of bearish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1226.65.
Resistance level: 1226.65, 1233.05
Support level: 1217.05, 1209.15