151018 Morning Session Analysis
15 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling tumbles as Brexit agreement collapse.
US dollar was opened higher on Monday following large selloff on the pound sterling due to the fallout of UK from reaching a Brexit deal with the EU. Brexit negotiation may become the main theme for the week as Irish border issue continues to circumvent any apparent deal to be made between Britain and Brussels. According to sources, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was forced to make last-minute visit to Brussels in order to seek more time from EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier over political uncertainty back in the UK. The diplomat was cautioned that any deal could be blocked by ministers in London as Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit strategy is split between hard and soft Brexiteers. In addition, May’s proposal to enact a “temporary customs union” has garnered backslash within the Parliament as some ministers’ postulate that it may turned into a permanent solution which could restrict their freedom to negotiate trade deals with other countries. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.11% to 94.95 while pair of GBP/USD opened lower by 0.37% to 1.3106.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 1.12% to $72.25 per barrel. Oil prices continued its bullish momentum since last Friday after reports shows that China’s export remained resilient albeit escalating trade war between Beijing and Washington. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.26% to $1,221.12 a troy ounce over the backdrop of escalating political and economic risk which arises from the UK over Brexit issues.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 19.00 | 20.40 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.7% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) | 0.6% | 0.5% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 94.65. MACD which begins to form golden cross signals suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.50
Support level: 94.65, 94.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3090. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3090, 1.3050
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.1605. MACD which begins to form death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1460
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the threshold of 111.90.
Resistance level: 112.15, 112.70
Support level: 111.90, 111.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the support level of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 0.6540. MACD which begins to form death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the threshold of 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6450
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the lower levels. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is advisable to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in the event of a successful breakout from the bottom level.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9885
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 73.70, 75.00
Support level: 72.00, 70.65
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1218.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1228.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
121018 Afternoon Session Analysis
12 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar edges higher while testing support.
Dollar index recovered part of its losses after falling to two-weeks low due to poor CPI data yesterday while challenging its support level at 94.60. The dollar rebound by 0.05% to 94.70 at early European trading session as a technical correction while remained traded in a bearish trend. Later today, US will release its Michigan Consumer Sentiment data where investors will react upon especially a lower than expected reading, which would cause the dollar to breaks its support. In other news, the pair of EUR/USD remained flat at 1.1590 following German CPI data which met its expectation at 2.3%. Euro was extending its gains to a new high since early October yesterday amid the delay for Italy’s budget plan.
In the commodities market, crude oil price surged by 1.13% to $71.75 per barrel amid China’s daily crude import which hit five-months high, indicating high demand for the oil. In other news, gold price slumped by 0.68% to $1,215.80 a troy ounce after surging to a new high since 25th July amid high demand for safe-haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | -0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) | 100.1 | 100.4 | – |
| 01:00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 861 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 94.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 94.95.
Resistance level: 94.95, 95.20
Support level: 94.60, 94.35
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3245. Due to lack of information from the MACD, a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3125
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1605. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1570.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1625
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1540
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 112.10. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 112.60.
Resistance level: 112.60, 112.90
Support level: 112.10, 111.65
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7125. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7100.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7140
Support level: 0.7100, 0.7085
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6530. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6495.
Resistance level: 0.6530, 0.6595
Support level: 0.6495, 0.6460
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3010. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level 0.9900. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9860.
Resistance level: 0.9900, 0.9920
Support level: 0.9860, 0.9825
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 70.30. MACD which illustrate starting bullish bias suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 71.95.
Resistance level: 71.95, 73.55
Support level: 70.30, 68.70
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1217.80. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1225.00, 1231.10
Support level: 1217.80, 1210.35
121018 Morning Session Analysis
12 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar depreciates further after CPI misses target.
Greenback retreats further against other major peers on yesterday after recent inflation data undershot economist’s expectation for last month. According to US Labor Department, Consumer Price Index rose to 2.3% for the year till September, missing economist forecast for a reading of 2.4%. However, many economists postulate that while recent inflation begins to show some signs of depreciation, it is still unlikely to deter US Federal Reserve’s plan to gradually increase their interest rates for the long-run. Likewise, greenback was also kept at its backfoot following a rebound in Euro following diminished political risk in Italy. Per report, Italian Senate has approved a motion to push back the balanced budget from 2020 to beyond 2021 on yesterday after the central government introduced a higher budget deficit target of 2.4% which received backslash from the European Union. As of writing, dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 94.67 while pairing of EUR/USD depreciates slightly by 0.03% to 1.1590.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.13% to $71.00 per barrel during early Asian trading session. The commodity received large selloff after EIA reported that crude inventories rose higher than expected with 5.987 million barrels versus forecast of only 2.620 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price slumped by 0.28% to $1,220.91 a troy ounce this morning. However, the commodity jumped more than 3% on yesterday following tumbling stock around the globe which raises the demand for safe-haven assets due to risk aversion.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) | 27.89B | 19.40B | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | -0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) | 100.1 | 100.4 | – |
| 01:00 (13th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 861 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the resistance of 94.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses following a retrace from the threshold of 94.65.
Resistance level: 94.65, 95.00
Support level: 94.00, 93.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1.3200. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3080
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1.1570. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level at 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1605, 1.1675
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1550
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 112.15, 112.70
Support level: 111.60, 110.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.7130. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the threshold of 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a successful closure above the resistance level near 0.6540.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3050. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 70.65. MACD which illustrate bullish divergence suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 72.00, 73.70
Support level: 70.65, 69.30
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level near 1228.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-erm as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1210.60
111018 Afternoon Session Analysis
11 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar falls amid Brexit sentiment.
Dollar index continue its bearish momentum following the recent progress of Brexit where UK and EU had made an agreement for a custom union, prolonging the period to discuss further agreements ahead of the summit with 28 bloc leaders. Moreover, yesterday’s negative sentiment from US President Donald Trump regarding his comment on the acceleration of rate hike was not necessary further worsen dollar’s price. Greenback fell by 0.20% to 94.95 at early European trading session. In other news, the pair of USD/JPY fell by 0.05% to 112.10 a new low since 21st September amid safe-haven demand. The anxiety caused by US bond market created a negative sentiment which boosted the demand for Japanese Yen while awaits today’s US CPI data for further direction of the dollar.
In the commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.72% to $72.05 as of writing. The commodity continues its bearish momentum amid negative sentiment from high inventory level reported by API. On the other hand, gold price decreased by 0.10% to $1,193.07 a troy ounce following reduced demand amid Brexit positive sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 207K | 206K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.975M | 2.620M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was lower while currently testing near the support level 94.95. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its losses after breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 95.20, 95.45
Support level: 94.95, 94.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3185. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3130
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1540. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1585, 1.1630
Support level: 1.1540, 1.1510
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 112.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 112.60.
Resistance level: 112.60, 113.40
Support level: 112.10, 111.65
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7085. MACD which display bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7040.
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7125
Support level: 0.7040, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6460. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6495.
Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6460, 0.6425
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3080. MACD which display bearish signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9855. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9855, 0.9825
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 71.90. MACD which display starting bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 73.55.
Resistance level: 73.55, 76.70
Support level: 71.90, 70.30
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1191.10. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1197.90.
Resistance level: 1197.90, 1203.30
Support level: 1191.10, 1185.35
111018 Morning Session Analysis
11 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar relinquished as Brexit turns optimistic.
US dollar fells against other major currencies on yesterday after being pressured by a strong rebound in the Euro and Pound Sterling over the backdrop of optimistic Brexit outcome. Both Euro and Sterling extended its gains for the past few days as Brexit negotiators continue to hint positive progress on the ongoing discussion of Brexit deal. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier commented that Britain and Brussels have agreed on a majority of withdrawal agreement ahead of EU Summit next week. Such signal has eased investors fear that Britain may leave EU next March without a trade agreement. Otherwise, yesterday’s the release of mixed data on wholesale inflation from the US has failed to cap greenback downside momentum. According to US Labor Department, while Producer Price Index came in as expected with the reading of 0.2% for month-over-month comparison, the data only rose to 2.6% for year-over-year comparison, missing economist forecast for a 2.8% increase. As of writing, dollar index depreciates by 0.09% to 95.02, GBP/USD rose 0.12% to 1.3210 while EUR/USD was up 0.10% to 1.1533.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.07%, last seen around $72.52 as of writing. The commodity received significant bearish pressure on yesterday after IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast which may reflect significant impact over crude oil demand in the global production sector. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.02% to $1,194.62 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 207K | 206K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Aug) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 7.975M | 2.620M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after breaking the threshold of 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the target of 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3515
Support level: 1.3080, 1.2925
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 60-MA line and resistance of 1.1550. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.1550.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1460
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 112.15.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05
Support level: 112.15, 111.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level at 0.7130. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 0.7045.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7045, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6430
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.3050.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2955
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9885. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 73.70, 75.00
Support level: 72.00, 70.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1192.00. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00
101018 Afternoon Session Analysis
10 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar pauses as market awaits further sentiment.
Dollar index edged lower by 0.10% to 95.20 during early European trading session while lack of sentiment put investors on hold towards the dollar. As dollar tests last week’s support level, investors are waiting for a possible sentiment to further confirm the direction of the dollar. Earlier reports from Reuters stated that US President Donald Trump was unsatisfied with Fed’s decision for gradual rate hikes, commenting that the inflation level of the country was in good condition and that a rush for rate hike was unnecessary. In other news, pair of AUD/USD increased by 0.24% to 0.7120 as of writing amid higher than expected Westpac Consumer Sentiment data. Further boosting of Australian dollar was China’s comment to prevent the use of competitive devaluation to weaken the Yuan, as accused by US officials. Investors gained confidence towards the Australian dollar as the country is one of the major partners with China.
For the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.17% to $74.80 amid the disturbance in crude output caused by the hurricane affecting US Gulf. The hurricane had since stopped 40% of the gulf’s total output. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.03% to $1,189.90 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.1% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Sep) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30 (11th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.907M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 95.20. MACD which illustrate a diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to undergo technical correction towards the resistance level 95.45.
Resistance level: 95.45, 95.70
Support level: 95.20, 94.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was recently traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.3130. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3185.
Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3280
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3045
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1510. MACD which display starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1460.
Resistance level: 1.1510, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1460, 1.1395
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 113.00. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 113.55, 114.00
Support level: 113.00, 112.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7125. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7080.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7160
Support level: 0.7080, 0.7040
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6495. MACD which display starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6460.
Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6460, 0.6425
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2955. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2905.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2905, 1.2840
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was recently traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9940. MACD which display bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9875.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9875, 0.9815
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was recently traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 75.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo a retracement towards the support level 73.55.
Resistance level: 75.00, 76.70
Support level: 73.55, 71.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1191.10. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the channel or resistance level.
Resistance level: 1191.10, 1197.90
Support level: 1185.35, 1173.60
101018 Morning Session Analysis
10 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling rose over the backdrop of Brexit progress.
Greenback opened lower during Wednesday’s Asian trading session following a sharp rally on pound sterling over renewed hopes for a breakthrough during Brexit talks. Overnight, pound sterling received larger buyback from investors as they cheered over a report that suggests both UK and EU are making progress in Brexit talks just weeks before the crucial EU summit bound to be held later in October. Both countries were reportedly close to reaching a deal over Brexit divorce terms as soon as Monday while some indifferences on the Ireland border remained as the main issue. As for now, UK and EU are aiming to draft an outline of future trade relationship by coming November. As of writing, dollar index was down 0.09% to 95.30 while GBP/USD rose 0.09% to 1.3156. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD recovered its losses by 0.14% to 1.1506 this morning. However, any substantial gains on the pair were limited as Italy’s budget conundrum with the European Commission continues to haunt market participants.
In the commodities section, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $74.71 this morning while shrugging off two-days of losses. The commodities received some support following investor’s worries of a hurricane swirling towards US Gulf Coast while data showed that Iranian crude exports were down by more than half prior to sanction enactment. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.01% to $1,189.93 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.1% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) | -0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Sep) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 04:30 (11th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.907M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate formation of bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses towards 95.00.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance level at 1.3145. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3200.
Resistance level: 1.3200, 1.3285
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3100
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. Although MACD illustrate bullish signal, a breakout from the trendline is required to attain further upside bias confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1460
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 113.40. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 112.70.
Resistance level: 113.05, 113.40
Support level: 112.70, 112.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the threshold of 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6430. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level of 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6430
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.2900.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Although MACD illustrate bearish signal, a break below the target of 0.9905 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9885
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded flat within a tight range for the time being. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 75.00, 75.60
Support level: 74.45, 73.40
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1184.00. MACD which illustrate the formation of positive divergence suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance near 1192.00.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
091018 Afternoon Session Analysis
09 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar edges higher amid strong sentiment.
09 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
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Greenback edged up by 0.08% to 95.50 during early European trading session amid its strong sentiment from last week’s Unemployment Rate data where the 40-year low rate of 3.7% continues to favor the dollar. In addition to that, Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell stated that future rate hikes up to the neutral rate of 3.4% by the year 2021 continued to boost investors confident towards the dollar, protecting its position as a safe-haven asset. In other news, the pair of AUD/USD failed to regain its strength, falling by 0.07% to 0.7070 despite a higher than expected Business Confidence data from the National Australia Bank. The pair was trading at a new low since November 2015 last Friday before climbing back up to the psychological level at 0.7085.
As for commodities market, crude oil price surged 0.83% to $74.80 per barrel amid reports on decreased crude exports from Iran. Investors confidence grew ahead of Iran sanctions due 4th November, which helped the market regained its bullish trend. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.07% to $1,189.50 a troy ounce as dollar edged higher.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Sep) | 201.0K | 210.0K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 95.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 95.60.
Resistance level: 95.60, 96.20
Support level: 95.35, 95.10
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was recently traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level 1.3100. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3025.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3025, 1.2980
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1465. MACD which display bearish signal and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1510, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1465, 1.1395
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 113.55 and the downwards trend line.
Resistance level: 113.55, 114.00
Support level: 113.05, 112.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7085. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7040.
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7125
Support level: 0.7040, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6460. MACD which display bearish bias and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6415.
Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6505
Support level: 0.6415, 0.6365
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2955. MACD which illustrate a bearish momentum and the starting formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2905
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9940. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9980.
Resistance level: 0.9980, 1.0025
Support level: 0.9940, 0.9875
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 75.00. MACD which illustrate a bullish signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 75.00, 76.70
Support level: 73.55, 71.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1191.10. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1185.35.
Resistance level: 1191.10, 1197.90
Support level: 1185.35, 1173.60
091018 Morning Session Analysis
9 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Japanese Yen propels as sentiment plunges.
US dollar was traded flat on Tuesday after undergoing seesawed trading due to a change of sentiment in the global financial market. On yesterday, safe-haven Japanese Yen regained large buyback across the board as People’s Bank of China announced to aid their economy by slashing reserve ration while allowing the Yuan to depreciate till its lowest level since mid-August. Such moves have sparked risk-aversion among investors while at the same time, equities in Asia, Europe and US falls into a sea of red. In the other region, Italy political conundrum continues to weigh on investor’s sentiment after the government insisted that it would not backout from its deficit spending plans despite European Commission’s disapproval. Prior, Italy’s government has proposed their 2019 fiscal budget to target at around 2.4% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As of writing, dollar index was flat at around 95.37, pair of USD/JPY extended its losses by 0.13% to 113.08 while pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.1490.
As for commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.16% to $74.48 per barrel. The commodity suffered from a deep loss on yesterday following speculation that US may not enact full sanction upon Iran by allowing the country to sell small amount of crude oil as compared to its original zero-exports target. Otherwise, gold price appreciates by 0.23% to $1,190.43 a troy ounce as investors initiate a buyback from a lower level.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Aug) | 15.8B | 16.4B | – |
| 20:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Sep) | 201.0K | 210.0K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3055, 1.2985
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle while currently testing near the target of 1.1495. MACD which illustrate bullish signal may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1550
Support level: 1.1460, 1.1420
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior breakout from the support of 113.40. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the target at 112.70.
Resistance level: 113.40, 114.00
Support level: 112.70, 112.15
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing near the target of 0.7090. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7025, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6450. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 0.6450.
Resistance level: 0.6450, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6405, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2955.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2900
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the mid-level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9885
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 73.40. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 74.45, 75.60
Support level: 73.40, 72.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1184.00. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross may suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1202.00
Support level: 1184.00, 1177.00
081018 Daily Analysis
8 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar edges higher amid Friday’s economic data.
Greenback managed to recover part of its losses from last Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data by 0.13% to 95.38 amid investors reaction towards better US unemployment rate. Following last week releasement of poor NFP data was the US Unemployment Rate data which had an actual reading of 3.7%, 0.1% lower than the forecasted data of 3.8%. The lower than expect unemployment rate was taken as a positive sentiment by investors as the data indicates a healthier US employment status. In other news, the pair of GBP/USD was traded lower by 0.11% to 1.3100 at early European trading session after surging up by 100 pips amid poor NFP data which sent the dollar falling from its 1-month high on Friday.
As for commodities, crude oil price plunged 0.60% to $73.85 per barrel amid reports from US officials where US may grant waivers for those who put efforts to reduce their crude imports from Iran. Moreover, news on Saudi Arabia’s action to stabilize the decreased of supply from Iran also created negative sentiment for the crude oil market. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.50% to $1,196.60 a troy ounce due to stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Canada – Thanksgiving Day
All Day JPY Japan – Health-Sports Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
N/A
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 95.20. MACD which illustrate bullish signal and the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 95.70.
Resistance level: 95.70, 96.05
Support level: 95.20, 94.55
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3130. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the psychological level 1.3040.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3040, 1.2980
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1510. Recent price action and MACD which display bearish bias and the formation of a death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1465.
Resistance level: 1.1510, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1465, 1.1395
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 113.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.50
Support level: 113.55, 113.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7040. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7085.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7125
Support level: 0.7040, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6460. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6460.
Resistance level: 0.6460, 0.6505
Support level: 0.6400, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2955. Recent price movement and MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2955, 1.2905
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9940. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9875.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9875, 0.9815
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 73.55. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 75.00, 76.70
Support level: 73.55, 71.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1197.90. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1191.10.
Resistance level: 1197.90, 1203.30
Support level: 1191.10, 1185.35
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 8 – 12
| Monday, October 8 |
Data EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
Events N/A
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| Tuesday, October 9 |
Data EUR – German Trade Balance (Aug)
Events N/A
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| Wednesday, October 10 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock GBP – GDP (MoM) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) USD – PPI (MoM) (Sep)
Events N/A
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| Thursday, October 11 |
Data USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events CrudeOIL – OPEC Monthly Report EUR – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
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Friday, October 12
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Data EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Sep) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
Events CrudeOIL – IEA Monthly Report
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081018 Morning Session Analysis
8 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback slumped as NFP mixed.
US dollar extended its back leg on Monday following mixed US employment data which were released last Friday. The dollar index was quoted down 0.03%, last seen around 95.22. Last Friday, US Labor Department reported that the rate of job creation has slowed down sharply in September, likely due to the effects of Hurricane Florence. According to the report, the number of Nonfarm Payrolls generated came in at 134,000 jobs, its lowest level in a year while missing economist forecast for a reading of 185,000. Similarly, annual wage growth also experienced some easing for last month, came in at only 2.8% versus prior month of 2.9%. However, overall unemployment rate continued its depreciation, falling down to a near 49-year lows of 3.7% from previous reading of 3.9%. The better-than-expected unemployment data has helped to ease and limit the selloffs on greenback. On the other hand, investors will now await China’s decision to follow an easing in domestic policy by allowing its yuan to fall after the central bank slashed reserve ratio last weekend.
As for commodities, crude oil price slumped 0.46% to $74.16 per barrel this morning. Oil prices was under pressure after China central bank announced stimulus last weekend, signaling a bleak outlook ahead for the world’s largest economy. A bleak outlook from the central bank may reflect lower demand for oil from the country in the future. On the other hand, gold price notched up 0.06% to $1,203.43 a troy ounce due to weaker dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Canada – Thanksgiving Day
All Day JPY Japan – Health-Sports Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) | -1.1% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a symmetrical triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and recent price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout from either side of the triangle before entering the market.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3145. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3200
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3055
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a tight range following prior retracement from the top. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1445
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending triangle. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the resistance level near 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.30
Support level: 113.60, 113.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD extended its losses in tandem with its overall bearish trending. However, MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before advancing further down.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7025, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.6450. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the support level near 0.6405.
Resistance level: 0.6450, 0.6490
Support level: 0.6405, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 1.2900. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.2955.
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior breakout from the support level of 74.45. MACD which formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the target of 73.40.
Resistance level: 74.45, 75.60
Support level: 73.40, 72.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down after breaking the bottom level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00
051018 Afternoon Session Analysis
5 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar edges higher ahead of economic data.
Greenback edged slightly higher by 0.10% to 95.45 at early European trading session while investors await the job data including the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) which acts as a major indicator for the price of dollar. The dollar surged to its highest level since 17th August after Fed chairman Jerome Powell said that the interest rate will be raised to the estimated neutral rate of 3.4% before keeping the interest rate fixed. In other news, the pair AUD/USD was down to a new low since December 2015 even with the Retail Sales data meeting its expectation. The pair was down by 0.28% to 0.7065 as of writing, continuing its bearish trend while the China market is closed for a week.
For the commodities market, crude oil price recovered part of its losses by 0.33% to $74.90 per barrel as the deadline of sanction on Iran hovers near. On the other hand, gold price slipped by 0.10% to $1,198.55 a troy ounce while investors are nervous about the upcoming NFP economic data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | 201K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 3.9% | 3.8% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Sep) | -51.6K | 25.0K | – |
| 01:00 (6th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 863 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level 95.50. MACD which illustrate a bearish signal suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.25.
Resistance level: 95.70, 96.05
Support level: 95.25, 94.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3040. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2980.
Resistance level: 1.3040, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2980, 1.2905
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1510. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1465.
Resistance level: 1.1510, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1465, 1.1395
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 114.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 113.55.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.55
Support level: 113.55, 113.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7085. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7040.
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7125
Support level: 0.7040, 0.7010
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6460. Recent price action and MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6560
Support level: 0.6460, 0.6430
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2905. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2965.
Resistance level: 1.2965, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2905, 1.2840
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9940. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of a golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9875, 0.9815
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 75.00. MACD which display bullish momentum and the starting formation of a golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 75.00, 76.70
Support level: 73.55, 71.90
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1197.90. MACD which display bearish bias suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level 1197.90.
Resistance level: 1203.30, 1208.45
Support level: 1197.90, 1191.10
051018 Morning Session Analysis
5 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling jumps over Brexit, Ireland headlines.
US dollar retraced from its previous high on yesterday following a larger buyback on the pound sterling over the backdrop of latest Brexit headlines. The dollar index was quoted down by 0.02% to 95.37 while pairing of GBP/USD ticked up 0.01% to 1.3022. Sterling received bullish traction overnight as investors bet Britain and the European Union are moving closer to an agreed position on a deal for Brexit before Brexit cut-off date early next year. In addition, UK Prime Minister Theresa May was reportedly being backed by Ireland over her plan for an all-UK customs union with the European Union if no other solution to the Irish border issue was found. The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland became the main issue over how trade and free movement of goods will work between the north and south after Brexit. However, losses on the greenback remains limited following better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims and Factory Orders reading released on yesterday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered some losses this morning by 0.15% to $75.00 per barrel. The commodity slumped more than 3% on yesterday after Saudi Arabia and Russia quietly agreed to increase their output in order to overcome shortage due to Iranian sanction. Otherwise, gold price slumped 0.12% to $1,198.37 a troy ounce while investors places their attention upon tonight’s highly anticipated release of Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.9% | 0.7% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Aug) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | 201K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 3.9% | 3.8% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Sep) | -51.6K | 25.0K | – |
| 01:00 (6th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 863 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 95.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to experience technical correction and extend its retracement in short-term.
Resistance level: 95.50, 96.00
Support level: 95.00, 94.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3055, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2910
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the low level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.1550, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1495, 1.1445
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY recovers its losses after prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 114.30, 114.55
Support level: 114.00, 113.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded in a downtrend following prior breakout from the support level of 0.7200. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.7025.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7025, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.6540. Overall, MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal may suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6450.
Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540
Support level: 0.6450, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the threshold of 1.2800. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains following a successful rebound from the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.2955, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2860
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and recent price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout from either side before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 74.60. MACD which shows diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the direction of 75.60.
Resistance level: 75.60, 76.15
Support level: 74.60, 73.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1202.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00
041018 Afternoon Session Analysis
4 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar flat amid Powell comments on interest rate.
The dollar index was seen flat during early European trading session at 95.65 after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented on the interest rate being far away from the neutral rate near 3%. In his speech he mentioned that the accommodative low interest rate is no longer needed as the US economy continues to strengthen. Although interest rates are still accommodative, the central bank will focus more on shifting it towards the neutral rate where the Fed plans to increase it to 3.4% before maintaining its interest rate. In other news, the pair GBP/USD slipped by 0.03% to 1.2935 amid ongoing Brexit woes and the strengthening of the dollar. The pound touched near 10th September low as investors flee from risky assets market and enter into the safe-haven dollar market. Price direction for pound sterling will now depends strongly on Brexit sentiment.
As for commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.07% to $76.10 per barrel this morning after news reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed privately to increase crude output as Iran sanction comes near. On the other hand, gold price was down by 0.03% to $1,197.90 a troy ounce after being pressured by a stronger US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:30 | USD – Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) | 38.5K | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 211K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep) | 61.9 | 62.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 95.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.25.
Resistance level: 95.65, 96.00
Support level: 95.25, 94.55
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2925. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3010.
Resistance level: 1.3010, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2820
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1465. MACD which display a starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1570
Support level: 1.1465, 1.1395
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 114.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 114.00.
Resistance level: 114.55, 114.85
Support level: 114.00, 113.55
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7085. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.7125.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7160
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7040
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 0.6500. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6435.
Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6560
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.2840. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level 1.2905.
Resistance level: 1.2905, 1.2965
Support level: 1.2840, 1.2785
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9930. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9875.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9875, 0.9815
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 77.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum the starting formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 74.85.
Resistance level: 77.05, 78.25
Support level: 74.85, 72.80
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1197.90. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of a death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1191.10.
Resistance level: 1197.90, 1203.30
Support level: 1191.10, 1186.30
041018 Morning Session Analysis
4 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback skyrocketed after ADP delivers.
US dollar extended its rally on yesterday, touching one-month high against its peers over the backdrop of optimistic private sectors jobs data. The dollar index was quoted up 0.30%, last seen around 95.65 during Asian session. According to ADP, US private sector payrolls surged to 230,000 jobs for the month of September, its highest level since February this year. In addition, Institute of Supply Management reported that US Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of September expanded to 61.6 versus forecast of 58.1. The data which shows positive growth on non-manufacturing sectors encompasses majority of US economy growth. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD appreciates by 0.02% to 1.1480. The currency received some bullish support after Italy’s government announced to reduce its budget deficit for next coming years.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.05% to $76.05 per barrel this morning. The commodity remains broadly supported as investors latched their focus on the upcoming Iranian sanctions that may significantly reduce global crude oil supply. Otherwise, gold price was down by 0.15% to $1,198.25 a troy ounce after being pressured by a stronger US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – National Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:15 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 19:30 | USD – Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) | 38.5K | – | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 214K | 211K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Aug) | -0.8% | 2.1% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Sep) | 61.9 | 62.3 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance level near 95.50. MACD which has formed bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up towards the direction of 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains in a downtrend following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which formed death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the target near 1.2910.
Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3055
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2860
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level of 1.1495. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of 1.1445.
Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1550
Support level: 1.1445, 1.1420
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the target near 114.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 114.55, 114.85
Support level: 114.30, 114.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD extended its losses while currently testing near the strong support of 0.7090. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down after successfully breaking the target of 0.7090.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7200
Support level: 0.7090, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 0.6540. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6490.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6490, 0.6450
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the threshold of 1.2800. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 1.2900.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from 0.9850. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction at 0.9940.
Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 76.15, 76.65
Support level: 75.60, 74.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 1202.00, 1210.60
Support level: 1192.00, 1184.00