160818 Daily Analysis
16 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar retreats amid data release of US Retail Sales.
The dollar index has retreated from a previous high and current sentiment is now coupled with the Retail Sales data release. According the US Census Bureau, the retail rate of consumer items for June has given a positive reading with an increase of 0.5%, which is higher than market expectations with the reading of 0.1%. In addition, dollar sentiment remains stimulated by the weaknesses in the Eurozone, which has been pressured by fears of European banks’ exposure to Turkey as well as increasing expectations of interest rates for September. All these factors have confirmed the dollar sentiment remain subjected to a bullish momentum for long term. The dollar index has slipped 0.03% to 96.40 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBPUSD has rose 0.17% to 1.2704 at the time of writing following the release of inflation data which have met expectations overnight. According to National Statistics from the UK, UK CPI data which measures the rate of expenditure on goods and services in the country has also increased by 2.5% from the previous data with a reading of 2.4%, which also in line with market expectations. However, the sentiment for the pound remains offset by the ongoing fears in the country for the Brexit plan where it is likely to fail to achieve any trade agreement.
In the commodity market, crude oil prices have recovered by 0.31% to $65.06 per barrel from a sharp drop yesterday after data on Crude Oil Inventories posted an increase of 6.8 million barrels last week, missed from expectations for a decrease of 2.4 million barrels. On the other hand, Gold prices have plummeted 0.45% to $ 1169.62 per troy ounce following the strength of the dollar driven by positive economic data yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | -0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Building Permits (Jul) | 1.292M | 1.310M | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) | 25.7 | 21.9 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 1.2695. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair to extend its technical correction towards resistance level 1.2735.
Resistance level: 1.2735, 1.2785
Support level: 1.2695, 1.2665
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 1.1365. Recent price action and MACD which display clear bullish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains towards resistance level 1.1440.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1365, 1.1300
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 110.75. MACD which indicate diminished bearish signal also with golden cross formation suggest the pair to extend its gains towards resistance level 111.10
Resistance level: 111.10, 111.45
Support level: 110.75, 110.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound form the support level 64.60. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal and golden cross formation suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards resistance level 65.70.
Resistance level: 65.70, 66.30
Support level: 64.60, 63.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1166.00. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish bias signal suggest the pair may extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1177.00
Resistance level: 1177.00, 1185.00
Support level: 1166.00, 1155.00
150818 Daily Analysis
15 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rallies following increasing expectation of Fed rate hike.
The dollar has continued its ascension and created a new high level repeatedly following most sentiments that remain subjected to the expectations of Fed rate hike and major headlines in the Turkish financial crisis. Markets remain in high expectation that the likeliness of increase in the Fed rate for September remains unchanged with a percentage rate of 90 percent. In addition, trade war between the US and China remains focused by investors where the market remains optimistic about the U.S. in the long run. The dollar index has rose 0.03% to 96.52 during writing. Meanwhile, GBPUSD has fell 0.11% to 0.7257 at the time of writing despite the steady economic data of the job market. According to the National Statistics from UK, the unemployment rate in the UK has improved with a 4.0% decrease, lower than the market expectations with a reading of 4.2%. However, it did not create a positive impact that could have lasted for the sentiment in pound sterling where additional details also revealed that the growth in annual wages was slower than expectations with 2.4% reading, weaker from expectations of 2.5%.
In the commodity market, crude oil prices have recovered 0.13% to $ 66.70 despite the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude inventories have increased by 3.66 million barrels per day last week, higher than the previous reading which recorded a decrease of -6.00 million barrels a day. On the other hand, Gold prices have dropped 0.13% to $ 1192.89 a troy ounce while writing amid the strength of the dollar driven by expectations of rising interest rates.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 2.4% | 2.5% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – PPI Input (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.351M | -2.667M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 1.2720. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate clear bearish signal suggest the pair may extend its losses towards the support level 1.2650.
Resistance level: 1.2720, 1.2780
Support level: 1.2650, 1.2585
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1325. MACD which display clear bearish bias suggest the pair may extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.1325.
Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1325, 1.1280
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 111.10. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish signal suggest the pair to experience short term technical correction towards the support level 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.45, 111.90
Support level: 111.10, 110.75
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 67.20. Recent price action and MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 66.30
Resistance level: 67.90, 68.75
Support level: 67.20, 66.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: The price of gold was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1192.00. Price action and MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the yellow metal to extend its losses towards the support level 1185.50
Resistance level: 1192.00, 1198.00
Support level: 1185.50, 1177.00
140818 Daily Analysis
14 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar retreats amid reports on Andrew Brunson release.
The U.S Dollar has retreat from its high after a report on Turkey may release US pastor Andrew Brunson. According to the reports from Reuters, speculations regarding on Turkey may release US pastor that detained and charged with espionage and terrorism related charges from 2016. Political tensions between US and Turkey has been worsening since the capture of Andrew Brunson. Therefore, the release statement has ease some concerns and shaved off part of the falling momentum in Turkey. However, investors will remain concerned and focus in the ongoing progress of geopolitical tensions in the world with US and other nations to determine further momentum. The dollar have fell 0.08% to 96.10 as of writing. Meanwhile, EUR/USD edge higher 0.02% to 1.1407 as of writing amid reports of Turkey central bank to provide liquidity and reserve for Turkey banks to counter the falling of Lira. According to Bloomberg, the central bank has confirmed that it will provide liquidity and cut lira and foreign currency reserve requirements for Turkish bank to balance the financial stability. Due to deteriorating of Turkey’ economy that have created concern for negative exposure to banks in Euro that could send the globe into financial crisis, the statement therefore has ease investors’ concerns and also regain some confidence back in the EUR.
In the commodities markets, the price of crude oil gains 0.15% to $67.20 a barrel at the time of writing following with the release of OPEC Monthly Report. According to the statement in the monthly report, Saudi Arabia has reduce their productions for the month of July despite the government have promised to increase their output to compensate for expected fall of Iranian oil. However, global growth demand were expected to down 20k bpd to 1.4m bpd. Thus, investors will shift their attention towards the Crude Oil Inventories to determine further momentum for the black oil. On the other hand, the price of gold have rebound 0.15% to $1207.75 a troy ounce as of writing amid dollar strength that supported by the reports on Andrew Brunson release and also the progress of ongoing trade war between US and various countries.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14.00 | EUR – German CPI (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 14.00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Average Earning Index + Bonus | 2.5% | 2.5% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jul) | 7.8K | 3.8K | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) | 137.0 | – | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.2% | 4.2% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment | -24.7 | -20.1 | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment | -18.7 | -16.4 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently consolidate in a tight range. Although MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum, a breakout above the resistance level 1.2780 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.2780, 1.2850
Support level: 1.2720, 1.2650
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1380. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1440
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1380, 1.1325
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 110.75 and descending trend line. Although MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum, a breakout above the resistance level 110.75 and trend line is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 110.75, 111.00
Support level: 110.45, 110.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 67.20. Recent price action and MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the next resistance level 67.90.
Resistance level: 67.90, 68.75
Support level: 67.20, 66.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following recent rebound from the resistance level 1192.50. Recent price action and MACD which display bullish signs with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair may extend its technical correction towards the resistance level of 1198.50.
Resistance level: 1198.50, 1204.50
Support level: 1192.50, 1185.50
130818 Weekly Analysis
13 August 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: August 13 – 17
Market Review (Forex): August 6 – August 10
US Dollar
The US dollar has vastly appreciated against its baskets of six major currency pairs following the release of US CPI data economy in last week and also the heightening of ongoing uncertainty in the global tension, especially in the trade war between US and China. The dollar index has rose 0.80% while closing last week price at 96.21.
According to the US Department of Labor, the retail data reading has come with an improvement of 0.1% which is 0.2%, in line with the market expectations which hinted to a steady increase of pressure in inflation that keeps the Federal Reserve on track to gradually raise interest rates this year. Besides that, tensions between US with around the globe especially trade war between US and China has been in the market spotlight as US has implement multiple sanctions and also tariffs around different countries which cause substantial impact for the dollar’s risk sentiment. Recently China has retaliate with tariff of 25% on $16 billion worth of US products, however the effect doesn’t impose significant negative effect for the dollar as the markets remain positive on the dollar in the long term following with the US imports are much lesser than China. However, the ongoing uncertainty still weight in the sentiment and investors will remain focus in the progress of the trade war.
Overall, the dollar strength remains solid against it major rivals and the risk appetite for the dollar remains high with most of the ongoing factors that have been speculated by the market to benefit the dollar and also expectations of Fed remain on track for two time gradual rate hike this year continues to support the dollar.
USD/JPY
USDJPY pair dropped 0.24% to 110.87 during late Friday trading session.
EUR/USD
EURUSD has slip 1.01% to 1.1407 against the US Dollar
GBP/USD
GBPUSD has fell 0.44% to 1.2765 during Friday New York session. Despite with the positive macroeconomic data in UK last Friday, the sterling remain capped following with the heightening uncertainty of Brexit where US and EU remain stuck in a trade deal and the deadline slowly draws closer.
Market Review (Commodities): August 6 – August 10
Crude Oil
The price of crude oil rose on Friday as followed with US sanctions on Iranian oil which triggered concern for supply shortage last week. The commodity price have advance by 1.55% to $ 67.61 a barrel during last Friday’s session.
Last week, the price of crude oil have surged following with the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday raised its estimate of world oil demand growth next year to 1.5 million barrels a day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd. Besides that, the IEA also warned that upcoming oil sanctions against Iran could bring turmoil to the market which the U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil are expected in early November and could increase the potential of a global energy supply shortage. Furthermore, the price is remain to hold its gains as the Bakers Hughes data, a leading indicator which measure the drilling activity in US also increased by the number of 10 which the reading is 869, thus improve further risk appetite for the black oil.
Overall, the sentiment for the commodity was subjected towards bullish after it driven higher in the past few months as demand for oil outstrips supply.
GOLD
Gold prices have slipped amid increasing sentiment around the rising greenback from recent happenings. The yellow metal price have closed the market last week by 0.08% to $ 1,211.55 a troy ounce.
The gold price has slumped amid ongoing dollar strength that following by the latest release of inflation data last Friday where a stronger than expect readings have hinted increasing pressure have increased expectations for Fed gradual rate hike this year. Besides that, ongoing expectations of USD strength in the trade war where China recently imposed a retaliation tariff on US products, but the sentiment around the greenback remain unaffected with the investors optimism that US would fare better as US imports are far more lesser than China.
Weekly Outlook: August 13 – 17
For the week ahead, investors will remain focus on the release of various economics data, especially the US Retail Sales data which is also one of the leading indicator to measure inflation that will be released on Wednesday this week to monitor their stance towards future monetary policy and economic outlook.
For crude oil traders, they will place their attention over Crude Oil Inventories data which is scheduled on Wednesday to obtain further signals.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: August 13 – 17
| Monday, August 13 |
Data USD – 3 Months Bill Auction USD – 6 Months Bill Auction
Events CrudeOIL – OPEC Monthly Report
|
| Tuesday, August 14 |
Data EUR – German CPI (YoY)(Jul) EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jul) GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jun) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, August 15 |
Data GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jul) GBP – PPI Input (MoM) (Jul) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) USD – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, August 16 |
Data AUD – Employment Change (Jul) AUD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) USD – Building Permits (Jul) USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, August 17
|
Data EUR – CPU (YoY) (Jul) CAD – CPI (MoM) (Jul)
Events AUD – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks AUD – RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: August 13 – August 17
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 96.20. MACD which display bullish momentum signal suggest the pair may extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.20, 97.50
Support level: 94.95, 93.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2785. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair may extend its losses towards the next support level 1.2600.
Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3230
Support level: 1.2785, 1.2600
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 110.95. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the next support level 109.40.
Resistance level: 110.95, 112.00
Support level: 109.40, 108.30
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 1.1525 while currently testing near the support level 1.1315. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.1315.
Resistance level: 1.1525, 1.1760
Support level: 1.1315, 1.1105
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently retest the support level 1206.00. Although MACD which illustrate bullish signal with positive divergence, a new bullish candle formation on the next candle and rebound from the support level 1206.00 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1233.00, 1260.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1184.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 68.85. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the commodity may extend its losses towards the support level 64.20.
Resistance level: 68.85, 72.55
Support level: 64.20, 59.75
100818 Daily Analysis
10 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar remains firm despite weak PPI release.
Dollar remains solid against its basket of major six main currencies despite the disappointing release of US PPI yesterday. According to the US Department of Labor, the average price change in production materials for July has slumped with the date reading of 0.00%, much weaker than the market forecasted of 0.2%. Despite the weak data, the dollar remains positive and subjected towards the trade war between US and Canada and also Fed rate hike expectations. Investors will now shift their attention towards the next news release that is US CPI which will be released tonight. The dollar has edge higher 0.06% to 95.36 as of writing during early Asian session. Meanwhile, EURUSD has plunged amid an uninspiring statement in the ECB Bulletin Board yesterday. Based on the statement in the ECB Bulletin Board, ECB has stated that the Eurozone economy is heading for a wide and steady growth, however the concerns of uncertainty in trade war remains prominent. The statement which hinted a warning for the global growth prospects and also fears in trade war has since increase the concern of investors, therefore driving further the selling of the Euro dollar. EURUSD has slipped 0.05% to 1.1530 at the time of writing.
In the commodities markets, the price of crude oil has inched higher 0.06% to $66.75 a barrel amid risk sentiment on the commodity which is still subjected to the concerns of supply outage. US sanctions on Iranian oil which have already taken effect on Tuesday and also the geopolitical tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia has caused some major impact in the market as concerns regarding about the possibility supply outage. Despite that, risk sentiment remains positive for long term as investors expected the US sanction may create a worst case scenario and wipe out 1.5 – 2.0 million crude oil supply per day, thus possibility of shortage is increased and will drive the commodity higher. On the other hand, the price of gold has dropped 0.03% to 1212.41 a troy ounce due the dollar strength and its positive risk sentiment which is remain subject in the trade war between US and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q2) | 1.2% | 1.3% | – |
| 16.30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jul) | 31.8K | 17.5K | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 6.0% | 5.9% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remain traded in a descending channel following recent breakout below the support level 1.2850. MACD which display starting bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.2850.
Resistance level: 1.2850, 1.2920
Support level: 1.2780, 1.2710
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1535. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair may be traded higher as a short term technical correction after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1535
Resistance level: 1.1535, 1.1550
Support level: 1.1515, 1.1485
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 110.00. MACD which display bearish signal with death cross formation suggest the pair may extend its losses towards the next support level of 110.75.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.25
Support level: 110.75, 110.35
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 67.20. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair may be traded higher towards the resistance level 67.20.
Resistance level: 67.20, 67.90
Support level: 66.40, 65.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in symmetrical triangle following recent retracement from the top level of the triangle. Due to the lack of signal and momentum in the market, it is suggested to remain neutral and wait until further clear signal appears such as breakout at top or bottom of the triangle before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1214.00, 1219.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1204.00
090818 Daily Analysis
9 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar gains amid lack of fresh catalyst.
Dollar has rose amid a lack of fresh catalyst and dollar remains subject to trade conflict between US and China. The lack of fundamentals in the week has maintain investor’s focus remains on the progress on trade war. In the last previous move where US has planned to increase their tariffs from 10% to 25% on China imports that worth $200 billion and China has vow to retaliate. At the same time, speculations of two time rate hike by Federal Reserve also further driving the dollar sentiment among investors. The market will now shift their attention towards economy data release of US PPI and also CPI which will happen this week. The dollar edge higher 0.09% to 94.93 as of writing. Meanwhile, USDCAD has advance 0.04% to 1.3023 at the time of writing after the disappointing release of its Building Permits economic data. According to the data provided by Statistics Canada, the housing market in the economy has slumped following with the reading of -2.3% which is weaker than economist expectations with the growth reading of 1.0%. Besides that, the bearish sentiment is further boosted by reports on Saudi Arabia has instructed its broker to liquidate all Canada asset and also froze ongoing and new investments in Canada in response to Canada has urged Riyadh to “instant release” women rights activist Samar Badawi and Nassima al-Sadah last week.
In the commodities markets, the price of crude oil has rebound 0.19% to %66.86 a barrel from an aggressive selloff in yesterday night amid the release of Crude Oil Inventories economic data. Based on the weekly report by Energy Information Association (EIA), inventories has fell 1.351 million barrels in last week, which is weaker than markets expectations where it expect for a fall of 2.8 million barrels. Furthermore, Foreign Minister Iran Zarif also stated that it will remain continue to exports its nation’s crude oil despite US sanction and have mock the US that it would not able to stop it. On the other hand, the price of gold has dropped 0.08% to 1213.32 as of writing due the dollar strength which is still subjected in the trade war between US and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20.15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Jul) | 248.1K | 220.0K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remain traded in a descending channel while currently testing near the support level 1.2850. MACD which display diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair may continue to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 1.2850.
Resistance level: 1.2920, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2780
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1605. Recent price action and MACD which indicate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level 1.1625.
Resistance level: 1.1625, 1.1655
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1580
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 110.75.Price action and MACD which indicate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair may experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.25
Support level: 110.73, 110.36
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil has been traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 66.40. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum with formation of golden cross suggest the pair may be traded higher as a short term technical correction after it breaks above the resistance level 67.00
Resistance level: 67.00, 67.90
Support level: 66.40, 65.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in symmetrical triangle while currently testing the top level of the triangle and resistance level 1214.00. Although MACD which indicate ongoing bullish momentum, a breakout above the triangle and resistance level 1214.00 is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1214.00, 1219.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1204.00
080818 Daily Analysis
8 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar retreats amid Jolts Jobs Opening data release.
Dollar index has retreat from its gains after the release of JOLTS jobs opening data on yesterday night. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics which assist in measure job openings, the data has disappoint investors as the reading was weaker than forecast with 6.662M against economists forecast of 6.740m, thus the data has weaken the risk sentiment for the dollar. Investor will now shift their attention towards the next economic data that scheduled this week, especially for US CPI data that is on this Friday. The dollar index has slumped 0.01% to 95.12 as of writing. Meanwhile, USD/CAD rose as the release of its data economy Ivey PMI disappoints. According to the Richard Ivey School of Business which assist in recording overall economy conditions for business, the data has come worse than expectation, with the reading of 61.8 against market forecast of 64.2. The data has hinted the business growth in Canada has slumped, thus boosting the weakness for the Canadian dollar Loonie. USDCAD rose 0.03% to 1.3056.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has jumped 0.22% to $69.23 amid rising concerns of market supply outage With the plans of US sanction on Iran’s crude oil, the first phase of the sanction has been executed on yesterday while the second phase is expected to happen on early November. The sanctions may cause shortage issues for the commodities thus boosting the sentiment and price for the crude oil. On the other hand, the price of gold has rebound 0.22% to $1213.48 a troy ounce following the strength of the US dollar which is now weaken by the slumped jobs data therefore boosting the yellow metal appeals as safe haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11.05 AUD Governor RBA Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09.30 | AUD – Home Loans (MoM)(Jun) | 1.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22.30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.803M | -1.800M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remain traded in a descending channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.2970 and the top level of the channel. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair may be traded lower after it break below the support level 1.2920.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3025
Support level: 1.2920, 1.2850
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 1.1605. Recent price action and MACD which display bullish momentum signal with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extends its gains towards the next resistance level 1.1625.
Resistance level: 1.1625, 1.1655
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1580
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 111.25. Price action and MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extends its gains after it breaks above the trend line.
Resistance level: 111.55, 111.90
Support level: 111.25, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the resistance level 69.25. MACD which display diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair may be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 69.25.
Resistance level: 69.25, 69.80
Support level: 68.75, 67.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in symmetrical triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level of the triangle. Recent price action and MACD which signals bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may be traded higher towards the top of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1213.00, 1218.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1200.00
070818 Daily Analysis
7 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull remains solid as trade war remains concerned.
Dollar index remains firm against its basket of six major currency pairs following with recent escalation on trade conflict. With the latest salvo by US president Donald Trump which plans to increase more tariff on the Chinese imports that worth $200 billion, Chinese state media has hit back on the threat, accusing him of orchestrating a “street fighter style deceitful drama” and China also vow to retaliate to impose 25%, 20% and 5% on US products if US followed through. However, risk sentiment among investors are towards the greenback given its economic strength and nations economy as investors predict the dollar would fare better in trade war. Investors will remain focus to witness how the situation will play out and also keeping a close watch on US economic data for this week to determine further direction. Dollar index was edge higher 0.02% to 95.26 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBP/USD slipped 0.03% to 1.2938 at the time of writing amid negative response in Brexit Progress. UK International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox has stated the likelihood of UK leaving EU without a trade deal is “60-40” added also with recent BoE Governor Mark Carney supporting the claim stated the possibility of no trade deal scenario is “uncomfortably high”. Investor will remain on alert in the progress of UK-EU Brexit to determine its further prospect.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has gained 0.03% to $68.90 a barrel amid reports of sluggish production from Arab Saudi. According to the reports from Reuters, Arab Saudi has only pumped around 10.29m barrels in July, lower than its previous production which is around 200,000 for the month before. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Saudi Arabia is the de factor leader has agreed to raise output by an increase of 1 million barrels per day following by recent pressure from the U.S to cut prices. On the other hand, gold has slip 0.03% to 1212.97 as of writing amid dollar strength which is bolstered by investor’s speculation of gradual rate hike and the progress of ongoing trade war.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12.30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12.30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 14.00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM)(Jun) | 2.6% | -0.5% | – |
| 14.00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Jun) | 20.3B | 21.4B | – |
| 15.30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (YoY) | 1.8% | 2.7% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – JOLTs Job Opening | 6.638M | 6.740M | – |
| 22.00 | CAD – Ivey PMI | 63.1 | 64.2 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.2920. Although MACD which display bullish signal with the golden cross formation, a breakout above the trend line is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.2975, 1.3025
Support level: 1.2920, 1.2865
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the trend line and also rebound from the support level 1.1550. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains toward the resistance level 1.1580.
Resistance level: 1.1580, 1.1605
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1555
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower which currently testing near the support level 111.20. Although MACD display signs of bearish signal, a breakout below the support level 111.20 is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 111.55, 111.90
Support level: 111.25, 110.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded higher following recent rebound from the trend line. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair may extend its gains if it breaks above the resistance level 69.25.
Resistance level: 69.25, 69.80
Support level: 68.55, 67.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in symmetrical triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level of the triangle. Recent price action and MACD which signals bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may be traded higher towards the top of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1213.00, 1218.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1200.00
030818 Daily Analysis
3 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rose amid escalating trade war tensions
The dollar index remains firm against its basket of major rivals after US have again escalated trade war into another level. Markets are currently gripped by concerns over the escalating trade tensions as US as President Donald Trump has instructed his trade aide for plans to increase higher tariffs of 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of imported goods from China and China vows to retaliate if the US acted on the threat. However, due to US imports more than China, the market are reacting to the trade war where US is the winner therefore boosting risk sentiment in the dollar. Besides that, the strength of the dollar is further support by a steady labor economic data where Initial Jobless Claims has rose by 1,000 to 217,000 for the week ended July 27, beating economists’ forecast for a rise to 218,000 according to the data from The US Department of Labor. Investor will now looking ahead for the Nonfarm Payroll which will be released on tonight. The dollar has gain 0.05% to 94.94 as of writing. Meanwhile GBP/USD has slip 0.03% to 1.3010 at the time of writing following by an interest rate raise by the BoE. Although BoE has unanimously voted for a hike increase provide some support for the sterling, the momentum was short-lived after a softer comments by Governor BoE Mark Carny which indicating a very limited and slow pace of tightening due to Brexit uncertainty. Investor will now focus on the PM Theresa May and French President Macron meeting to looking for prospects for the pair.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has settled higher by 0.07% to $68.96 after a reports of inventory decline in the crude stockpiles at the domestic trading hub Cushing, Oklahoma. According to information provider Genscape, the stockpiles at the hub have dropped by 1.1 million barrels since Friday, 27.Besides that, the bullish momentum is further boosted by the ongoing uncertainty linked to Iranian Oil. On the other hand, the price of gold was down $1208.00 a troy ounce as the dollar strengthen amid escalating trade tensions and also upbeat economic data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP – Service PMI (Jul) | 55.1 | 54.7 | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) | 213K | 193K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 4.0% | 3.9% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Non Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 60.7 | – | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 861 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level 1.3045. Price action and MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair may extend its losses towards the next support level 1.2965.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1580. Recent price action and MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum with starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair may experience a short term technical correction towards the trend line and resistance level 1.1610.
Resistance level: 1.1610, 1.1635
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1555
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 111.55. MACD which display bullish signal with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extend its gains toward resistance level 111.90.
Resistance level: 111.90, 112.15
Support level: 111.55, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: The price of crude oil was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 67.45. MACD which illustrate starting of bullish momentum with golden cross formation suggest the pair may extend its gains towards the resistance level 69.75.
Resistance level: 69.75, 70.35
Support level: 68.40, 67.45
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following recent breakout below the support level 1214.00 and currently testing the support level 1206.00. Although MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum, a breakout below the support level 1206.00 is required for further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1214.00, 1218.00
Support level: 1206.00, 1200.00
020818 Daily Analysis
2 August 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar gains post FOMC meeting.
Dollar index rose during early Asian session after the Fed have provide a positive view on the world’s biggest economy. As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve has maintained its interest on 1.75 -2.00% rate and provide no surprise on its statement during yesterday meeting. However, the overall tone of stronger hawkish comments which stated economic growth is rising and the labor market in US continue to strengthen, hinted the market that it is continue on course to gradually hike rate. Global investors are now eyeing on the progress of imminent trade war as US officials have launch a new move proposing for a higher 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and it may deliver a huge impact for the market. Dollar index rose 0.06% to 94.47 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has slumped 0.14% to 1.3106 amid Brexit risk returns this week. Trades are focus on happenings this week as PM Theresa May is scheduled to meet with French President Macron on Friday, ahead of U.K.-EU negotiations that are set to resume in mid-August. Besides that, Investors will also shifting their attention to the BoE Interest Rate Decision which is expected for a rate hike today to determine further momentum for the pair.
In the commodities market, the price of crude oil has rebound 0.07% to $68.78 from continuous sell off which caused slump EIA crude stock change. According to the data from the Energy Information Association, the crude oil inventories have gone up to 3.803 million barrels during the week, more than initial forecast of a decrease of -2.794M. Investors will shift their attention towards the upcoming Bakers Hughes drilling report which is set on this week. On the other hand, the price of gold has rebound 0.25% to $1218.79 after its continuous losses by the strength of the dollar boosted by its positive data sentiment and also hawkish FOMC meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19.00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
19.30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | GBP Construction PMI | 53.1 | 52.8 | – |
| 19.00 | BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug) | 0.50 | 0.75 | – |
| 19.00 | BoE QE Total (August) | 435B | 435B | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently consolidate below the MA lines. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout below the trend line of rebound from the trend line.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3170
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3070
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.1675. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair extend its losses towards the support level 1.1635.
Resistance level: 1.1715, 1.1740
Support level: 1.1675, 1.1635
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently retest the support level 111.55. Although MACD which display a diminished bearish bias, a bullish engulfing candle above the support level 111.55 is required to attain further confirmation
Resistance level: 111.90, 112.15
Support level: 111.55, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was trade higher following prior rebound from the support level 67.45. MACD which display bullish signal with golden cross suggest the pair may continue its technical correction for short term towards the resistance level 68.40
Resistance level: 68.40, 69.75
Support level: 67.45, 66.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel following a failed attempt for breakout below the support level 1218.00 and back to the sideway zone. MACD which display bullish signal with golden cross suggest the pair may be traded higher towards the resistance level 1226.00.
Resistance level: 1226.00, 1233.00
Support level: 1218.00, 1214.00
310718 Daily Analysis
31 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar sags in anticipation of policy outlook.
US dollar extended its back leg on Monday while Euro and Pound Sterling edged higher, in anticipation over a number of central bank meetings scheduled later this week. The dollar index plunged 0.34%, last quoted around 94.08 during early Asian trading session. At present, investors are pondering towards a series of central bank policy decision scheduled later in the week which could provide further direction for its respective currencies. While the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce their decision on Thursday, no rate hike from the central bank is expected for this month. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, investors are currently pricing in at an 87.8% chance for an interest rate hike during September instead. On the contrary, losses on the greenback remains limited after Pending Home Sales reportedly rose 0.9%, beating economist forecast for a rise of up to 0.4% for the month of June. Against other major peers, pair of EUR/USD tacks up 0.23% to $1.1708 while Pound Sterling rose 0.22% to $1.3135 against the US dollar.
As for commodities, crude oil price settled up 0.03% to $70.02 per barrel while gains remain limited as investors place higher concern over global crude supply which continues may continue to rise. On the other hand, gold price tacks up 0.06% to $1,222.05 a troy ounce over the backdrop of a weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Events
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Events
11:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
11:00 JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 51.5 | 51.4 | – |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 55.0 | 55.0 | – |
| 11:00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) | -15K | -10K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.8% | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) | 126.4 | 126.5 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3150. MACD which illustrate the formation bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the mini upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3150
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3070
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1700. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1720, 1.1740
Support level: 1.1700, 1.1685
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of support level near 110.70.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.25
Support level: 110.70, 110.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while recently rebounded from the support level near 69.80. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 70.30, 70.75
Support level: 69.80, 69.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the upper level. Due to the lack of signal from recent price action and MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal has emerged before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1226.50, 1230.00
Support level: 1222.00, 1219.00
300718 Weekly Analysis
30 July 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 30 – August 3
Market Review (Forex): July 23 – 27
US Dollar
Greenback edged lower against other major peers last Friday despite optimistic preliminary reading of US second quarter GDP. The dollar index depreciates by 0.09%, ended the week at around 94.67.
According to US Commerce Department, US Gross Domestic Product grew at a faster pace with 4.1% during April till June, in line with economist forecast. The strong GDP reading was largely driven by a surge in consumer spending following tax cuts albeit being offset partially with negative contribution from private inventory and residential fixed investment.
Some analyst questioned the sustainability of such growth as benefits from fiscal stimulus may dial down next year. Such outlook was given as US Federal Reserve pledged to tighten their monetary policy further as inflationary pressure and job markets continues to expand at a faster rate.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY slumped 0.18% to 111.03 during late Friday trading.
EUR/USD
Euro recovered its losses by 0.13% to $1.1658 against the greenback. The single common currency received some buying support following last week’s depreciation after ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated to keep interest rates steady until next year.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling ticked down 0.02% to $1.3106 against the US dollar.
Market Review (Commodities): July 23 – 27
GOLD
Gold price recovered slightly on Friday following a slump in the greenback although US economy expands more rapidly during the second quarter. Price of the yellow metal ticked up 0.03% while ended the week at $1,223.08 a troy ounce.
Evidently, safe-haven assets which are denominated in US dollar will received some buying support in the event of a depreciation of the denominated currency. However, recovery on the precious metal remains limited as market participants places higher expectation on the US Federal Reserve to tighten their monetary policy in a more rapid fashion for the long-run.
In a setting with higher interest rates, demand for non-yielding assets such as gold will diminish as it fails to compete with high-yielding assets such as the US Treasury bonds.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price edges lower on Friday following higher US oil rig count which dials down market expectation for a slowdown in regional oil production. Price of the black commodity slipped 0.82%, closing the week at $70.07 per barrel.
According to oilfield service provider, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States were up by 3 to a total of 863. The reading marked the first rig count rise in three weeks, signaling higher possibility for further expansion in US oil production.
However, losses on the commodity remains limited as investors places their attention upon other signals which points to lower supplies in the market. Prior, Saudi Arabia temporarily paused their shipments through the Red Sea strait after two of its oil tankers were reportedly attacked by Houthi Rebels.
The disruption in the Middle East may decrease their oil exports and production, increasing market expectation for lower supply from the region that could underpin global oil prices. Furthermore, supply issue which stemmed from Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria has also further underpinned overall optimism towards a crude supply draw globally.
Weekly Outlook: July 23 – 27
For the week ahead, investors will place their attention over the highly anticipated Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision to monitor their stance towards future monetary policy and economic outlook.
Otherwise, oil traders will place their attention over OPEC meeting which is scheduled to commence on Wednesday to obtain further signals with regards to their approach taken to tackle imminent supply shortage.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 30 – August 3
| Monday, July 30 |
Data USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, July 31 |
Data CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jul) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) USD – Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) CAD – GDP (MoM) (May) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
Events JPY – BoJ Outlook Report JPY – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement JPY – BoJ Press Conference
|
| Wednesday, August 1 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock NZD – Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jul) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jul) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events CrudeOIL – OPEC Meeting
|
| Thursday, August 2 |
Data USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision GBP – Construction PMI (Jul) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision USD – Initial Jobless Claims
Events USD – FOMC Statement GBP – BoE Inflation Report GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
|
Friday, August 3
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) GBP – Services PMI (Jul) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) USD – Unemployment Rate (Jul) CAD – Trade Balance (Jun) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: July 30 – August 3
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the upper level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.90
Support level: 94.10, 93.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which begins to form bearish signal may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of support level near 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3300
Support level: 1.3045, 1.2890
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the threshold of 111.00.
Resistance level: 111.00, 112.10
Support level: 110.50, 109.35
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal may suggest the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of support level near 1.1560.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1850
Support level: 1.1560, 1.1445
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended its losses following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line which continues to expand downwards suggests the commodity price to advance further down after successfully breaking the strong support near 1222.00.
Resistance level: 1239.20, 1257.00
Support level: 1222.00, 1204.70
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line which continues to narrow downward suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 70.45, 74.00
Support level: 68.40, 66.40
270718 Daily Analysis
27 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Euro swims in red as Draghi strikes again.
Greenback stood tall against all other major peers on Thursday following broad sell off on the Euro amid dovish stance delivered by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi. As of writing, dollar index was quoted up 0.45% to 94.50 while pairing of EUR/USD slumped 0.60% to $1.1638. In a highly anticipated ECB policy meeting on yesterday, Draghi postulate that it is not a necessity to “modify or add new language” into the bank’s interest rate forward guidance while reiterating to keep their rates unchanged up until summer of 2019. His seemingly dovish take on interest rate hike has delivered a severe bearish blow to the Euro as the signal suggests the ECB would be rather unlikely to hike their interest rate before October 2019. On the other hand, greenback remained resilient throughout the North American trading session despite weaker-than-expected economic data as investors place higher expectation towards their domestic economic growth for second quarter. According to US Commerce Department, Core Durable Goods Orders missed economist forecast with 0.4% versus 0.5% seen for the month of June.
Over to the commodities market, crude oil price settled up 0.03% to $69.50 per barrel as Saudi Arabia halts their oil shipment through Red Sea straits after two of its oil tankers were reportedly attacked by Houthi rebels. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.06% to $1,223.69 a troy ounce as stronger dollar places bearish pressure on the yellow metal.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 2.0% | 4.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) | 2.2% | 2.3% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | 97.1 | 97.1 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 858 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. Both MA line which continues to expand downward suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of support level near 1.3070.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3070, 1.3000
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level near 1.1675. Both MA line which expand downward suggests bearish bias. However, a close below 1.1640 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1675, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1640, 1.1620
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained under pressure following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 111.25, 111.95
Support level: 110.70, 110.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD histogram which has formed negative divergence signal suggest the commodity price to extend its losses towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 70.00, 70.70
Support level: 69.30, 68.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. Although MACD illustrate bearish signal, close below the trendline and support of 1222.00 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1226.50, 1233.70
Support level: 1222.00, 1216.00
260718 Daily Analysis
26 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Bulls return amid Trump’s turnaround.
Greenback trickles lower during Asian trading hours amid weak regional housing data while market participants mull the outcome of a meeting between US and EU. The dollar index slumped 0.40% to 93.92 as of writing. In a highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and EU’s chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker, both parties agreed to step back from a trade war while striking a deal to work towards “zero” tariffs, barriers and subsidies. The EU counterpart agreed to purchase billions of dollars’ worth of American exports while Trump agreed to resolve US tariffs which were imposed upon European steel and aluminum imports. Overall optimism which surrounds the meeting conclusion has encouraged market-bulls to boost recent global stocks rally although failed to garner any gains on the dollar after New Home Sales data for last month missed economist expectation. Otherwise, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.03% to $1.1732 over the backdrop of diminished trade-war threat and optimistic German Business Climate Index from yesterday.
As for commodities market, crude oil price tacks up 0.10% to $70.53 per barrel after Energy Information Administration reported a large fall in US crude inventories by 6.147 million barrels last week, confounding expectation for a draw of up to 2.600 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.09% to $1,232.84 a troy ounce following weak greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Aug) | 10.7 | 10.7 | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) | 0.0% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 207K | 215K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Goods Trade Balance | 64.77B | 67.00B | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the downward trendline. Such price action while coupled with bullish signal from the MACD histogram suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of resistance level at 1.3270.
Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3345
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3130
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. Although MACD histogram illustrate bullish signal, a close above the resistance level near 1.1750 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1750, 1.1780
Support level: 1.1710, 1.1675
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY resumed its major downtrend following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line which continues to expand downwards suggests further bearish bias. Thus, a close below the support level of 110.70 will further validate the downside signal.
Resistance level: 111.25, 111.95
Support level: 110.70, 110.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while recently rebounds from the support level of 69.30. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the direction of strong resistance level near 70.00.
Resistance level: 70.00, 70.70
Support level: 69.30, 68.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. Although both MA lines and MACD illustrate bullish bias, a break above 1233.70 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1233.70, 1238.40
Support level: 1226.50, 1222.00
250718 Daily Analysis
25 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar skids while GDP in tow.
Greenback halts its bullish ascend on yesterday amid mixed signals portrayed by the recent release of economic from the region. The dollar index depreciates by 0.06%, last quoted around 94.33 as of writing. According to Market, US Manufacturing PMI expands further during the month of July, attaining a reading of 55.5 versus forecast for a decline to 55.1 However, US Services PMI – one of the main contribution to the American’s economy fell marginally short of forecast with only 56.2 versus expectation of 56.5. Overall, losses on the greenback was limited as the mixed data failed to derail investor’s speculation for a strong economic growth during the second quarter. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.03% to $1.3148 during Asian session. Pound sterling recovered slightly on yesterday after British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she will lead Brexit negotiation with the European Union. The announcement has increased market expectation that United Kingdom may reach a desirable Brexit deal after months of impasses in both Britain’s Parliament and European Union.
Over to the commodities market, crude oil price tumbled 0.09% to $69.89 per barrel despite positive inventory data from American Petroleum Institute as investors weigh the possibility of a crude demand slowdown due to ongoing trade war between US and China. On the other hand, gold price pared its losses by 0.08% to $1,225.49 a troy ounce amid recent weakness of the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – CPI (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | 0.5% | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 101.8 | 101.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Gross Mortgage Approvals | 39.2K | 39.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jun) | 689K | 670K | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.836M | -2.331M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended gains following prior rebound and a close above 1.3130. Although both MA line and MACD illustrate bullish signal, a breakout from the downward trendline is required to obtain further clarification with regards to the upside bias.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3270
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3070
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following recent rebound from the lower level. Due to the lack of signal from price action and MACD histogram, it is suggested to wait for a breakout from either side of the triangle before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.1750
Support level: 1.1675, 1.1640
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing near the upper level. Although MACD has formed a bullish crossover which suggests upside signal, a break above the narrowing triangle is required to obtain further clarification.
Resistance level: 111.95, 112.20
Support level: 111.25, 110.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior re-entry into the ascending channel. However, diminishing upward momentum from the MACD may suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 69.30, 70.00
Support level: 68.40, 67.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of signal from price action and MACD, it is suggested to wait for further indication before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1226.50, 1233.70
Support level: 1222.00, 1216.00