030718 Daily Analysis
3 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebounds amid imminent trade war.
Greenback rose sharply on yesterday following optimistic regional economic data which reaffirms investors expectation that the economy could withstand potential trade war with its trading partners. The dollar index rose 0.25% to 94.54 during Asian trading hours. According to ISM, manufacturing index for the month of June showed an uptick from 58.7 to 60.2, exceeding economist forecast of only 58.4. The reading which fared well above the threshold of 50 shows further expansion in manufacturing sector that accounts for 12% of entire US economy. Likewise, the dollar remained broadly supported as investors place their bet on US economy that may fare better in a potential trade war as they have low reliance on exports when compared to EU and China. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD was down 0.05% to $1.1638 following heightened political uncertainty in Germany. According to reports, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s interior minister offered his resignation due to disagreement over migration policy.
As for commodities, crude oil price settled down 0.11% to $74.06 per barrel after US President Donald Trump claimed that Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has agreed to raise output by up to 2 million barrels per day to resolve possible supply shortage in the market. Otherwise, gold price recovered its losses by 0.05% to $1,242.62 a troy ounce while investors continue to ponder upon next major economic data release from the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 52.5 | 52.5 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (May) | -0.8% | 0.1% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -9.228M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently retraced from the mid-level. Both MA line and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the lower level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1.3150, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3050
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1640, 1.1680
Support level: 1.1590, 1.1550
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following recent rebound from the upward trendline. Coupled with both MA line and recent price action which signaled bullish bias, the pair is expected to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level at 111.05.
Resistance level: 111.05, 111.45
Support level: 110.55, 110.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate upward signal may suggest the commodity price to extend its gains following a bullish rebound from the bottom level.
Resistance level: 74.90, 76.10
Support level: 72.80, 71.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Both MA line which continues to expand downwards suggest the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 1240.00.
Resistance level: 1246.00, 1249.15
Support level: 1240.00, 1234.50
020718 Weekly Analysis
2 July 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 2 – 6
Market Review (Forex): June 25 – 29
Greenback tumbled during late Friday trading amid a rebound in Euro and Pound Sterling while losses remained capped as optimistic economic data provide some support from the downside. The dollar index settled down 0.96% while ended the week at 94.47 against a basket of six major currencies. Both Euro and Pound Sterling received bullish buyback after EU members stuck a deal on migration issues while the latter was bolstered by hawkish first quarter growth which may warrant for another rate hike by the Bank of England later this year.
Yet, US dollar managed to cap off some of its losses as economic data showed that US inflation hit Federal Reserve’s target last month which paves the way for the Fed to continue its rate hike cycle. According to the Fed preferred inflation measure, Core PCE Price Index which exclude food and energy rose 2% in May, exceeding economist forecast of only 1.9%. Although consumer spending experience slower pace with only 0.2% versus consensus forecast of 0.4%, personal income grew steadily at 0.4% for the month of May.
USD/JPY
US dollar was up 0.25% to 110.77 against the safe-haven Yen during late Friday trading.
EUR/USD
Pair of EUR/USD extended gains by 1.00% while ended the week at $1.1684.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling notched up 1.02% while closing the week at $1.3211 against the greenback.
Market Review (Commodities): June 25 – 29
GOLD
Gold price recovered its prior losses on Friday following broad dollar weakness due to a rebound in Euro and Pound Sterling. The safe-haven commodity was up 0.36% or $4.55 to $1,252.81 a troy ounce during late American trading session.
However, any substantial recovery on the asset were limited due to higher prospect for more rate hike from the Federal Reserve as inflation picks up. In a higher interest rate setting, the appeal for the asset will be diminished as it fails to compete with other yielding asset such as US Treasury or bonds.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled more than 1% on Friday as US output portrays signs of a slowdown while traders continue to bet on global crude supply shortage. Price of the black commodity skyrocketed 1.38% or $1.01 while closing the week at $74.39, not far from the psychological threshold of $75.00 per barrel.
According to US oilfield service provider, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active drilling rigs in the region fell by 4 to a total of 858 last week. The report notched in a second weekly decline which raised investors’ hopes that the rampant pace domestic output may slow down due to rising global demand and declining drilling activities.
Moreover, the commodity is also supported by ongoing expectations that global supply may experience some shortage as more countries may back US enforced sanctions against Iran, one of the third largest crude exporters in OPEC that accounts for more than 2 million barrels per day.
Weekly Outlook: July 2 – 6
For the week ahead, investors will place their attention on several key data from the United States which includes ISM and ADP report in anticipation for the coveted release of Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 2 – 6
| Monday, July 2 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2) JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jun) EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, July 3 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (May)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, July 4 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Jun) EUR – German Services PMI (Jun) GBP – Services PMI (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, July 5 |
Data EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (May) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, July 6
|
Data USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes JPY – Household Spending (MoM) (May) EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (May) GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) CAD – Employment Change (Jun) CAD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) CrudeOIL – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: July 2 – 6
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of ascending triangle. Although MACD histogram begins to form bearish signal, a break below the triangle is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.90
Support level: 94.10, 93.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3045. Recent price action suggests the pair to extend it technical correction in short-term, towards the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3045
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY extended gains following prior rebound from the upward trendline. However, Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a retracement signal from the overbought region may suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.00, 112.10
Support level: 110.50, 109.35
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of descending triangle. MACD histogram which illustrate upward signal suggest the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the upper level of the triangle near 1.1700.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1850
Support level: 1.1560, 1.1445
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following a rebound while currently testing at the threshold of 1257.00. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before continuing its major bearing trend.
Resistance level: 1257.00, 1266.25
Support level: 1239.20, 1225.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 74.00. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggest the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction is still subject to current upward trendline.
Resistance level: 74.00, 77.55
Support level: 70.45, 68.40
290618 Daily Analysis
29 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar swings as GDP retreats.
Greenback seesawed against other major peers on Thursday as market bulls were held back following the release of dovish economic data from the United States. During yesterday’s North American trading hours, Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for first quarter came in at only 2.0%, missing economist forecast to read at 2.2%. In addition to that, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims rose by 9,000 individuals to 227,000, exceeding economist expectation to come in with only 220,000. However, the downside risk on the US dollar remains limited as Euro pared its earlier gains due to rising political uncertainty within the single economic bloc. During the highly anticipated EU leaders summit, several countries rejected Brussels proposal to implement EU-wide quota system where refugees and asylum seekers will be distributed among member countries to ease the burden. Countries such as Poland and Hungary refused to take part as it may threaten their national sovereignty and security while Italy threatened to block the initiative which has led to an impasse. As of writing, dollar index ticked up 0.05% to 94.94 while pairing of EUR/USD depreciates by 0.03% to $1.1564.
As for commodities, crude oil price extended gains by 0.10% to $73.45 per barrel despite US consideration to ease its tough stance against countries that import crude oil from Iran. The commodity remained supported as recent data showed that oil inventories in Oklahoma fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, easing market concern for further escalation in global supply glut. Similarly, gold price rose 0.07% to $1,249.01 a troy ounce following larger buyback after hitting fresh 6-months low on yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 07:50 | JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (May) | 0.5% | -1.1% | -0.2% |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 2.3% | -0.5% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jun) | -11K | -8K | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 5.2% | 5.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 1.9% | 2.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price (Index (YoY) (May) | 1.8% | 1.9% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (May) | 0.6% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | 0.0% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) | 99.3 | 99.1 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 862 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3050. MACD histogram which illustrate upside signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction in the event of a closure above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3155
Support level: 1.3050, 1.3010
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after regaining its support at 1.1550. MACD histogram which begins to form a golden cross signal suggest the pair to extend its gains in short-term and retest near the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.1590, 1.1640
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1515
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the top level of descending channel. However, recent retracement from the resistance of 110.55 may suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 110.55, 110.90
Support level: 110.25, 109.80
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from its highest level in six months. MACD histogram which begins to form bearish signal may suggest the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before continuing its major bullish bias.
Resistance level: 74.90, 76.10
Support level: 72.80, 71.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following a retrace prior to the resistance level at 1250.00. Recent price action suggests the pair to extend its losses, in tandem with the current bearish trendline towards the direction of 1245.70.
Resistance level: 1250.00, 1254.00
Support level: 1245.70, 1241.00
280618 Daily Analysis
28 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Sterling bulldozed following Carney’s warning.
Greenback outperforms against other major peers on yesterday following large selloff on the Pound Sterling while market participants continue to ponder upon rising trade tension between United States and its trading partners. Overnight, pound sterling plunged sharply after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney failed to deliver signals with regards to next rate hike while spooking off the market with dovish stance. Carney warned that global trade tensions continues to intensifies and economic turmoil may set off if an agreement with the EU is not reached before Britain’s departure from the economic bloc. Such signals left investors to ponder if a rate hike is still likely in August as BoE policymaker expressed their concern over the impact of Brexit on UK’s economy. However, gains on the greenback were capped below the threshold of 95.00 due to lower-than-expected economic data from yesterday. According to the US Census Bureau, Core Durable Goods Orders for the month of May shrank 0.3%, missing economist forecast to grow at the pace of 0.5%. On the whole, dollar index rose 0.67% to 94.96 while pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.03% to 1.3116.
Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price settled up 0.22% to $72.55 per barrel after Energy Information Administration reported a massive draw in US crude stockpiles by 9.891 million barrels last week, toppling economist forecast to reduce by only 2.572 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price recovered some losses by 0.05% to $1,252.67 a troy ounce albeit remained under pressure due to higher prospect for interest rate hike from the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
22:45 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
00:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul) | 10.7 | 10.6 | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 2.2% | 2.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) | 1.9% | 1.9% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 218K | 220K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Real Consumer Spending (Q1) | 1.0% | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3100. MACD histogram which shows diminished downward momentum may suggest the pair to be traded in a consolidation phase for short-term before extending its losses.
Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3185
Support level: 1.3100, 1.3050
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after regaining its support from the threshold of 1.1550. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its major bearish trending.
Resistance level: 1.1640, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1445
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which begins to illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its bearish momentum in short-term following a closure below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 110.25, 110.55
Support level: 109.80, 109.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance level of 71.15. Both MA line which continues to expand upwards suggests further bullish momentum. However, a break above 72.80 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 72.80, 74.90
Support level: 71.15, 69.50
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher after regaining some support at 1250.00. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction is subject to major bearish trendline.
Resistance level: 1254.00, 1260.00
Support level: 1250.00, 1245.70
270618 Daily Analysis
27 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebounds while trade war brews.
Greenback extended its recovery from one-week trough on yesterday following the return of risk appetite among investors despite lingering trade tension between United States and China. The dollar index rose 0.41% while last seen around 94.30 during Asian trading hours. Safe-haven currencies such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc pared their gains against the dollar after investors continue to bet on US economy that may fare better in an all-out trade war with other countries. According to economist, US assets are deemed to be more secure investment following a trade war outbreak as US economy is less dependent on exports when compared to its peers. However, gains on the greenback were limited following the release of bearish economic data on yesterday. According to Consumer Board, US Consumer Confidence for the month of June fell to 126.4 versus forecast of 127.6. On the other hand, EUR/USD pared its losses by 0.02% to $1.1650 this morning. On yesterday, the single common currencies fell as leaders in the EU summit struggle to reach a common ground over migration issues in the economic zone.
Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price shed 0.08% to $70.75 per barrel albeit limited losses after US call upon other countries to stop purchasing crude oil from Iran or face fresh sanctions from the White House. Such measures may drastically reduce market oil supply as Iran is OPEC’s third largest oil producer which exports more than 2 million barrels per day. Otherwise, gold price fell 0.04% to $1,258.40 a troy ounce as higher prospect for interest rate hike limits its ability to recover substantially.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
23:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) | 0.9% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) | -1.3% | 1.1% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -5.914M | -2.572M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL Gasoline Inventories | 3.277M | 1.313M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.3235. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggest the pair to experience retracement before extending its major bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3140
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior rejection from the resistance level of 1.1710. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests further bearish bias. However, a close below the support of 1.1645 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.1820
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1550
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near the region of 110.25. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term while overall trending still subject to the formation of descending channel.
Resistance level: 110.25, 110.55
Support level: 109.80, 109.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price rose sharply following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line and MACD histogram which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains towards the direction of resistance level near 71.15.
Resistance level: 71.15, 72.80
Support level: 69.50, 67.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). However, MACD histogram which illustrate some bullish signal may suggest the commodity price to experience retracement before extending its major bearish trending.
Resistance level: 1260.00, 1264.00
Support level: 1255.00, 1250.00
260618 Daily Analysis
26 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar relinquished over tit for tat tariff battle.
US dollar extended its back foot on Monday following higher demand for safe-haven assets over fears of an escalating trade war between the United States and its peers which could dampened global economic growth. The dollar index was quoted down 0.24% while last seen around 93.89 during Asian trading session. According to Wall Street Journal, White House is allegedly planning to block firms with at least 25% of Chinese ownership from investing in US technology firms and bar any technology exports to Beijing. The report prompted vast risk aversion, aggravating further bearish pressure on the greenback. Protectionism arise from the United States added more concern over the latest flare of global trade saga after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 20% tariff on car imports from the EU after its counterpart imposes tariff upon US imports in response to White House’ steel and aluminum tariff enactment. Against other major currencies, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.10% to $1.1704 while USD/JPY extended its losses by 0.14% to 109.62.
In the commodities market, crude oil price settled down 0.12% to $68.25 per barrel as traders continue to asses OPEC’s decision to lift their output that may slowdown global rebalancing of supply and demand. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.04% to $1,265.99 a troy ounce albeit remained under pressure following higher prospect for interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the near future.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Events
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Events
01:00 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
01:45 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jun) | 128.0 | 127.6 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -3.016M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its gains following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3235. Both MA line which continues to narrow upward suggests the pair to advance further up after breaking the strong resistance level at 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3345
Support level: 1.3235, 1.3185
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the top level of sideways channel. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate persistent upward signal suggests further bullish bias. Thus, a close above the target at 1.1710 would provide further validation.
Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.1820
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1550
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 109.50.
Resistance level: 109.80, 110.25
Support level: 109.50, 109.20
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 69.50. However, both MA line which continues to expand upwards after the formation of golden cross suggests its price to advance further up and retest at the target of 69.50.
Resistance level: 69.50, 71.15
Support level: 67.40, 65.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red). Long-term trend direction can only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1270.00, 1275.80
Support level: 1264.00, 1260.00
250618 Weekly Analysis
25 June 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: June 25 – 29
Market Review (Forex): June 18 – 22
US dollar extended its losses last Friday following mixed economic data and a rebound in the single common currency – Euro. The dollar index slumped 0.24% while ended the week at 94.52 against a basket of six major currencies.
On Friday, mixed US economic data did little to encourage dollar-bulls to support the currency after preliminary reading of services PMI exceed economist expectation while manufacturing data fell short. For the month of June, Services PMI ticked up to 56.5, beating economist forecast for a fall to 56.4. However, manufacturing PMI came in with 54.6, lesser than economist expectation to attain 56.3.
In addition, the currency received further bearish pressure following ongoing trade tension between the United States and China. Prior, US President Donald Trump signaled to impose an additional 10% tariff upon $200 billion import from China, sparking higher concern for a full blown “trade-war” to occur between the two economic giants.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY ticked down 0.02% to 109.97 during late Friday trading.
EUR/USD
Euro extended gains by 0.44% to $1.1654 against the US dollar. The single common currency received bullish support over the backdrop of optimistic services data from France and Eurozone, easing investors’ concern over imminent economic slowdown in the region.
GBP/USD
Pair of GBP/USD tacks up 0.17% while ended the week at $1.3264.
Market Review (Commodities): June 18 – 22
GOLD
Gold price rebounds from its session low over the backdrop of sluggish greenback while gains remain limited due to lower demand for the safe-haven asset. Price of the yellow metal rose 0.18% or $2.31 to $1,269.49 a troy ounce.
Although greenback experienced some setbacks, gold price failed to yield substantial recovery as investors places higher prospect for a faster pace of rate hike from the US Federal Reserve. Generally, higher interest rate environment would reduce the appeal of safe-haven asset as alternative investment due to its non-yielding nature.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price rose sharply during last Friday as traders cheer over modest output hike decision from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Price of the black commodity skyrocketed more than 5% or $3.40 while closing the week at $69.35 per barrel, not far from the psychological level of $70.00.
In OPEC’s 174th official meeting, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached their consensus to increase its output at around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) or 1% of global supply despite Tehran’s initial opposition. OPEC explain in a joint press release that its members had exceeded the required level of conformity to limit their production since 2017 with compliance of up to 152%. Thus, they agreed to drop the compliance to a lower level at around 100%.
The cartel noted that there is no specific allocation for each of its individual members as some countries does not have the capacity to ramp up their output. Although OPEC pledged to increase up to 1 million barrels, the realistic numbers will fall between 700,000 to 770,000 according to two officials from OPEC.
Weekly Outlook: June 25 – 29
For the week ahead, market participants will continue to ponder upon major economic releases from the United States to monitor their pace and condition of economic progression which may warrant for more rate hike from the Federal Reserve in the long run.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: June 25 – 29
| Monday, June 25 |
Data EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index USD – New Home Sales (May)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, June 26 |
Data USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, June 27 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
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| Thursday, June 28 |
Data NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (May) EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Real Consumer Spending (Q1)
Events USD – FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement EUR – EU Leaders Summit USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
|
|
Friday, June 29
|
Data JPY – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (May) EUR – German Unemployment Change (Jun) EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Jun) GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jun) USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (May) USD – Personal Income (MoM) (May) USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (May) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Apr) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events EUR – EU Leaders Summit
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: June 25 – 29
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 95.00 while forming a double top. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal may suggest the index to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red) near 94.10.
Resistance level: 95.00, 95.90
Support level: 94.10, 93.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3170. MACD histogram which illustrate upside bias suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its bearish major trend thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3045
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 110.50. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of upward trendline.
Resistance level: 110.50, 111.35
Support level: 109.35, 108.25
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support of 1.1560. MACD histogram which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in the event of a closure above the target of 1.1700.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1850
Support level: 1.1560, 1.1445
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1266.25. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1285.30, 1304.30
Support level: 1266.25, 1257.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price rose sharply following prior rebound from the strong support of 64.10. However, recent retracement from 69.30 may suggest the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 69.30, 72.50
Support level: 67.30, 65.70
220618 Daily Analysis
22 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Sterling skyrocketed following hawkish BoE.
US dollar pared its gains on yesterday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed report while coupled with a rebound in Pound Sterling. The dollar index quoted down 0.20% while last seen around 94.48. According to Philadelphia Fed, its manufacturing index for the month of June fell to a reading of 19.9, missing economist expectation with a reading of 28.9. On the contrary, losses on the greenback were limited after Initial Jobless Claims reportedly fell by 3,000 individuals to a total of 218,000 for last week, confounding economist expectation for a rise to 220,000. Elsewhere, pair of GBP/USD notched up 0.05% to $1.3247 during Asian trading hours following hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of England (BoE). In a widely expected policy meeting to remain neutral on their interest rate, vote count shows an uptick in the number of policymakers who calls for a rate hike, suggesting higher prospect for further monetary policy tightening later this year.
In the commodities market, crude oil price edged up 0.03% to $65.97 per barrel while investors await the outcome of OPEC meeting that is slated to be announced by today. Previously, the oil cartel suggested to increase their output by 1 million barrels in order to offset shortages from Venezuela and Iran. Similarly, gold price ticked up 0.01% to $1,267.22 a troy ounce following a slight retracement of the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (May) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 56.9 | 56.3 | – |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Services PMI (Jun) | 52.1 | 52.2 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 863 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD pared its losses following a sharp rebound from the support level at 1.3140. MACD histogram which illustrate upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3345
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3140
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.1550. MACD histogram which illustrate upward signal may suggest the pair to extend its gains and test near the strong resistance level of 1.1645.
Resistance level: 1.1645, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1445
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.25
Support level: 109.80, 109.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended gains while currently testing at the top level of descending wedge. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggest the commodity price to advance further up in the event of a breakout from the top level.
Resistance level: 67.40, 69.50
Support level: 65.75, 64.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggest the commodity price to extend its gains after successfully breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1275.80, 1285.20
Support level: 1264.00, 1260.00
210618 Daily Analysis
21 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar oscillates amid the lack of market movers.
US dollar ticks higher on Thursday while soft US economic data and a surge in Pound Sterling kept the lid off for any substantial recovery on the currency. The dollar index was quoted up 0.04% to 94.72 during early Asian trading hours. Overnight, US dollar received some bearish pressure after Commerce Department reported that Existing Home Sales fell short of expectation with -0.4% versus 1.5% seen in the month of May. In addition, further bearish bias was evoked following a rebound of the Pound Sterling after UK Prime Minister Theresa May successfully won the key vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Bill which enables the government to negotiate Brexit terms with the EU without a meaningful vote from the Parliament. Nevertheless, losses on the greenback remains limited following sharp rise on 10-years Treasury yield amid hawkish signals given by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell postulate that the case for gradual rate hikes is “solid”, reaffirming investor expectation that the central bank would raise interest rates by twice for the remaining half of the year.
Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.14% to $65.58 per barrel after Energy Information Administration reported a massive draw in US crude stockpiles by 5.914 million barrels last week. For the time being, investors will shift their attention towards members and non-members of OPEC who will be meeting today to review their production-cut plan which was agreed in November 2016. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.04% to $1,268.83 a troy ounce while remained under pressure due to stronger dollar and higher prospect for faster pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
16:30 CHF SNB Press Conference
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 06:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 15:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 218K | 220K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) | 34.4 | 29.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Jun) | 30.2 | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.1% | 0.5% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent downward signal and momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of strong support near 1.3140.
Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3235
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3050
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the lower level. Due to the lack of signal from price action and MACD histogram, it is suggested to wait for further signal before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.1645, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1445
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 110.55, 110.90
Support level: 110.25, 110.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price extended gains following prior rebound from the lower level of descending channel. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the commodity price to advance further up after closing above the resistance level at 65.75.
Resistance level: 65.75, 67.40
Support level: 64.10, 62.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following a rebound prior to the support level at 1264.00. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggest the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1275.80, 1285.20
Support level: 1264.00, 1260.00
200618 Daily Analysis
20 Jun 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback rises amid US-China trade chronicle.
US dollar rebounds sharply on yesterday in the middle of US-China trade war saga amid large selloff in Euro and Pound Sterling. The dollar index extended its gains by 0.22% to 94.60 during early Asian trading session. Single common currency Euro remains under pressure since last week after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi calls to maintain monetary policy for the time being, signaling dovish guidance on future interest rate stance. On the other hand, Pound Sterling plunged to 7-months low of $1.3153 against the greenback after Prime Minister Theresa May failed to garner support for the proposal to hand over Brexit decision making to the parliament, stoking greater economic and political uncertainty in case of an impasses as Brexit dead line approaches. However, gains on the greenback were capped below the threshold of 95.00 as fear for full-blown trade war rises after China vowed to retaliate against Trump’s suggestion to impose additional 10% tariff upon $200 billion Chinese goods on yesterday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.34% to $65.23 per barrel industrial data shows large draw in US crude stockpiles by 3.016 million barrels last week, stoking higher optimism towards tonight’s official data from the Energy Information Administration. On the other hand, gold price tacks up 0.04% to $1,275.17 a troy ounce following mild risk aversion in the market due to ongoing political and trade uncertainty.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
21:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 18:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun) | -3 | 1 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (May) | 5.46M | 5.55M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -4.143M | -1.898M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -2.271M | 0.188M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses following prior breakout from the support level at 1.3235. Both MA lines which continues to expand downward suggests the pair to extend its bearish momentum, towards the direction of 1.3140.
Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3235
Support level: 1.3140, 1.3050
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while recently retraced from the 60-MA line (green). MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1645, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1445
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the threshold of 110.10. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 109.80.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.25
Support level: 109.80, 109.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending wedge following prior rebound from the lower level. Both MA histogram and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bullish signal suggest crude oil price to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 65.75, 67.40
Support level: 64.10, 62.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended losses following prior closure below the support level at 1275.80. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggest its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before continuing its major bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1275.80, 1285.20
Support level: 1264.00, 1260.00
190618 Daily Analysis
19 June 2018 Daily Analysis
US dollar fumbled as trade-war on the brink.
Greenback continued its depreciation since the start of the week as investors pile over to safe-haven assets amid heightened trade-war risk in between the United States and China. The dollar index slumped 0.03% while last quoted around 94.35 during Asian trading hours. Fears over imminent trade-wars were evoked following provocative introduction of 25% tariff by the Trump administration against a list of China imported goods last Friday. Adding up to the risk, US President Donald Trump vowed to take extra measures if China retaliates against the measure taken, fuming higher risk aversion in the financial market. However, downside on the US dollar were somehow limited as Euro thread lower following EU political uncertainty arise from Germany’s governing coalition. Pair of EUR/USD quoted down 0.02% to $1.1623 as of writing.
Peering into commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 1.30% to $65.69 per barrel after report suggested that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is considering to hike their output below the level of initially speculated. Members of OPEC is considering to raise oil output by 300,000 to 600,000 barrels per day over the next few months in order to offset imminent supply shortage from Venezuela and Iran. Concurrently, gold price tacks up 0.06% to $1,279.24 a troy ounce while investors mull mixed sentiment between rising trade tension and faster pace of rate hike in the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Events
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Events
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
20:30 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (May) | 1.364M | 1.350M | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.833M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.3235. MACD histogram which has formed a golden cross signal may suggest the pair to extend its bullish bias in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3345
Support level: 1.3235, 1.3185
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended gains following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1550. MACD histogram which has formed an upward signal suggests the pair to advance further up after breaking the resistance level at 1.1645.
Resistance level: 1.1645, 1.1710
Support level: 1.1550, 1.1445
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in the event of a breakout from the bottom level.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 110.00, 109.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the threshold of 65.75.
Resistance level: 65.75, 67.40
Support level: 64.10, 62.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price pared some of its losses after regaining its support at 1275.80. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1285.20, 1291.10
Support level: 1275.80, 1264.00
180618 Weekly Analysis
18 June 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: June 18 – 22
Market Review (Forex): June 11 – 15
Greenback ticks up slightly during late Friday trading albeit gains were capped following US imminent announcement of heft tariffs against Chinese imports. The dollar index rose 0.02% while closing the week at 94.79 against a basket of six major currencies.
Last Friday, US President Donald Trump reaffirmed that a 25% tariff will be announced and imposed upon a list of import goods from China and vowed to enact further tariffs if Beijing retaliates. His statement sparked fears among market participants as such measure would raise the prospect for trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Initially, dollar slumped upon Trump’s affirmative signal albeit managed to regain some bullish closure following better-than-expected reading of Empire State Manufacturing Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Both data moves in tandem with US Federal Reserve’s projection last Thursday, citing robust economic growth and solid progression in household spending would warrant for a higher inflationary pressure in the future.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY ticked up 0.03% to 110.66 during late Friday trading.
EUR/USD
Euro rose 0.36% to $1.1610 against the greenback after experiencing a large selloff on Thursday following European Central Bank’s call to leave the interest rate unchanged until summer of 2019.
GBP/USD
Pair of GBP/USD extended gains by 0.11% while ended the week at $1.3277.
Market Review (Commodities): June 11 – 15
GOLD
Gold price extended its losses last Friday despite rising geopolitical and trade tension between US-China following higher prospect for a faster pace of rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. Price of the yellow metal plunged 1.72% while ended last week at $1,279.76 a troy ounce.
The safe haven asset came under pressure following Fed’s interest rate decision on Thursday whom suggested one additional rate hike for the remaining year of 2018 due to rising consumer prices and robust economic performance. In a rising interest rate environment, gold’s appeal as an alternative asset subsides as it fails to compete with higher interest-bearing assets such as bonds.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price plunged sharply on last Friday following further expansion of oil output in the United States while coupled with imminent production hike from OPEC and Russia. Price of the black commodity settled down 3.97%, ended the week at $64.25 per barrel.
According to the US oilfield services provider, Baker Hughes reported that US oil drilling rigs rose for fourth-consecutive week, up by 1 to a total of 863. The data comes in tandem with the report from Energy Information Administration last Wednesday which shows that US daily oil output extended its uptrend, currently standing at a record high of 10.9 million barrels per day.
In addition, crude oil price received extensive selling pressure after Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak postulate to gradually increase oil production after having discussion with Saudi Arabia. The suggestion came as they pledge to offset diminished output from Venezuela and Iran which may subject to international sanctions bound to be imposed by the United States.
Weekly Outlook: June 18 – 22
For the week ahead, investors will pay attention to interest rate decision from the Bank of England as rising consumer prices continues to pressure the central bank to raise their rates further while Brexit risks continues to linger.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: June 18 – 22
| Monday, June 18 |
Data JPY – Trade Balance (May)
Events USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks USD – FOMC Member Duke Speaks
|
| Tuesday, June 19 |
Data AUD – Wespac Consumer Sentiment (Q2) USD – Building Permits (May)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks USD – FOMC Member Williams Speaks AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes
|
| Wednesday, June 20 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun) USD – Existing Home Sales (May) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
| Thursday, June 21 |
Data NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) USD – Philly Fed Employment (Jun) USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – Wholesales Sales (MoM) (Apr)
Events CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment CHF – SNB Press Conference CrudeOIL – OPEC Meeting
|
|
Friday, June 22
|
Data JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (May) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) EUR – German Services PMI (Jun) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events CrudeOIL – OPEC Meeting
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: June 18 – 22
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the threshold of 95.00. Such retracement suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its uptrend based on bullish signal from the MACD histogram.
Resistance level: 94.10, 95.00
Support level: 93.00, 91.95
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD extended losses following prior breakout from the support level of 1.3300. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the strong support near 1.3170.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3445
Support level: 1.3170, 1.3045
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing near the support level at 110.50. Such retracement suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its bullish bias based on the current upward trendline and bullish signal from MACD histogram.
Resistance level: 111.35, 112.10
Support level: 110.50, 109.35
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1850. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1560.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1850
Support level: 1.1560, 1.1445
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher after gaining some support near the threshold of 1275.00. Recent price action suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its losses based on the prior formation of death cross from MACD histogram.
Resistance level: 1285.95, 1304.30
Support level: 1275.00, 1266.25
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended losses following prior retracement from the resistance level at 67.35. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down after breaking the support of 64.10.
Resistance level: 65.70, 67.30
Support level: 64.10, 61.80
140618 Daily Analysis
14 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar wilts as rate hike cycle may end sooner.
Greenback whipsawed with high volatility on early Thursday morning as US Federal Reserve concludes their two-day policy meeting with an unexpected hawkish rhetoric. The Federal Reserve as widely expected, raised their target fund rates today for the second time in 2018 by 25 basis points to the range of 1.75% – 2.00%. FOMC unexpectedly raised its forecast and made amendment to their dot plot, citing 4 rate hikes in 2018 instead of 3 following robust economic growth and solid progression in household spending. The Feds raised their GDP outlook from 2.7% to 2.8% while lowered their unemployment expectation from 3.8% to 3.6% for the year. Although greenback rose after the announcement, Fed postulate that rate hike speed may be fastened but terminal rate is still unchanged. The comment signifies that rate hike cycle could end sooner than expected, evoking higher volume of pullback from the dollar-bull. For the day ahead, investors will turn their focus to the European Central Bank (ECB) whom may release tapering details on their massive QE program which is set to end this September. As of writing, the dollar index slipped 0.25% while last quoted around 93.50.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.05% to $66.62 per barrel after EIA reported that US crude oil stock was decreased by 4.143 million barrels, exceeding economist forecast to decrease by 1.440 million barrels last week. Similarly, gold price ticked up 0.03% to $1,299.18 a troy ounce over the backdrop of bearish greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Employment Change (May) | 22.6K | 18.8K | – |
| 09:30 | AUD – Unemployment Rate (May) | 5.6% | 5.5% | – |
| 10:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (May) | 7.0% | 6.9% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 1.6% | 0.5% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 222K | 223K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. Both MACD histogram and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3410
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3320
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD extended gains following prior breakout from the top level of descending triangle. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1830, 1.1865
Support level: 1.1790, 1.1765
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while recently rebounded from the target of 110.00. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggest the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 110.00, 109.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded in a consolidation phase near the top level of ascending channel. Recent retracement may suggest the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction before extending its gains in accordance to the channel formation.
Resistance level: 66.80, 67.15
Support level: 66.30, 65.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggest the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the support level of 1298.70.
Resistance level: 1301.30, 1303.80
Support level: 1298.70, 1294.70
130618 Daily Analysis
13 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bulls reignites following rising consumer prices.
US dollar shies away from its prior session low following positive US inflation report which has further validate rising consumer prices, in tandem with US Federal Reserve economic projection. The dollar index extended gains by 0.26% while last quoted around 93.77 as of writing. According to the US Labor Department, report shows that Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% for the month of May, exceeding economist forecast for a rise of only 0.1%. The data came as US Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting got underway while they are widely expected to raise interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 1.75% – 2.00%. In addition, the US dollar received further bullish support as Euro-bulls subsides due to weaker than expected Eurozone Economic Sentiment. However, losses on the single common currency were limited as market participants give higher prospect towards the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce the exit date for its massive QE program during tomorrow’s meeting. During Asian trading hours, Euro tacks up 0.02% to $1.1747 against the US dollar.
Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.29% to $65.84 per barrel after API reported that US crude oil stock rose 0.833 million barrels last week, fumbling investors forecast for a draw of up to 2.700 million barrels. Similarly, gold price was down by 0.34% to $1295.53 as higher interest rate expectation limits the appeal of the asset to yield seeking investors.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
02:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.4% | 2.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | -0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 2.072M | -2.744M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 4.603M | 0.443M | – |
| 02:00 | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 2.00% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of support level at 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3410
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3320
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the strong support near 1.1740.
Resistance level: 1.1790, 1.1830
Support level: 1.1740, 1.1705
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the mid-level. MACD histogram which illustrate upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 110.55.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 109.40, 108.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending wedge while recently rebounded from the mid-level. Diminishing downward momentum from MACD histogram may suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term, towards the upper level of the formation.
Resistance level: 66.50, 67.35
Support level: 65.70, 65.45
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after breaking the strong support of 1294.70.
Resistance level: 1296.50, 1298.70
Support level: 1294.70, 1292.40
120618 Daily Analysis
12 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Market thread cautiously as historic summit in tow.
US dollar inches higher on yesterday as pound sterling slumped further due to bearish economic outlook as portrayed by the latest major economic release. The dollar index tacks up 0.06% while last quoted around 93.51 during Asian trading hours. Subdued momentum on the greenback came as market participants shifts their attention towards the historic summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un today in Singapore. Both countries will discuss ongoing issues which plague the Korean Peninsula such as calls for denuclearization and possibility to end Korean War officially with a peace treaty. Otherwise, pound sterling slides further after report shows that UK manufacturing output shrank the most for the last six years with -1.4% versus 0.3% seen in April. In addition, sterling receives further bearish pressure as traders reduces their risk exposure on the currency ahead of Brexit Withdrawal Bill vote slated for today and tomorrow. Pair of GBP/USD was down 0.04% to $1.3375 as of writing.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.15% to $66.14 per barrel after Iraq warned producers against easing limit on production cuts as global oil prices still require support from the effort. On the other hand, gold price shed its gains by 0.12% to $1,298.68 a troy ounce ahead of widely expected interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve this coming Thursday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) | 2.6% | 2.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (May) | 31.2K | 11.3K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 4.2% | 4.2% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jun) | -8.2 | -14.6 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.028M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing the lower level. MACD histogram which illustrate death cross formation suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3410
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3320
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the strong support at 1.1740.
Resistance level: 1.1790, 1.1830
Support level: 1.1740, 1.1705
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while recently retraced from the upper level. Stochastic Oscillator which hovers near the overbought region suggests imminent downward bias for short-term. Otherwise, mid-term trend direction still subject to the ascending channel formation.
Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00
Support level: 110.00, 109.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing near the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 66.50, 67.35
Support level: 65.70, 65.45
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1298.70, 1301.30
Support level: 1294.70, 1292.40