Daily Analysis

8 June 2018                         Daily Analysis

Dollar-bears took a break, ECB still on tap.

Greenback shies away from session low against other major peers on yesterday albeit remained under pressure as Euro continued to extend its gains over the backdrop of higher prospect towards European Central Bank (ECB) to shed their plans on their QE program. The dollar index tacks up 0.08% while last quoted at 93.37 during Asian trading hours. Overnight, US dollar received some bullish support after Initial Jobless Claims for last week decreased by 1,000 individuals to a seasonally adjusted total of 222,000, beating economist expectation to remain at 223,000. However, overall upside on the currency remained limited as investors mulls over ECB that may announce the end date of their massive bond-purchasing program next week, sparking higher bets on the central bank to tighten their policy sooner than later. The single common currency, Euro depreciates slightly by 0.06% to $1.1796 against the US dollar.

Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.35% to $66.12 per barrel after Iraqi’s Oil Minister postulate that a production increase for the second half of the year is not the main agenda for OPEC’s meeting on June 22^nd. The signal has reduced investors fear over OPEC which has suggested to lift their production levels in order to offset diminished supply from Venezuela and Iran. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.02% to $1,296.93 a troy ounce over the backdrop of stronger dollar and diminished market risk.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the threshold of 1.3460. MACD histogram which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction after closing below the support level of 1.3410.

Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3410, 1.3360

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following a bullish rebound from the support level of 1.1790. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its upside bias after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.1830, 1.1865

Support level: 1.1790, 1.1740

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the region of 109.40. MACD histogram which begins to form an upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 110.00, 110.55

Support level: 109.40, 108.85

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended gains following prior closure above the resistance level at 65.70. MACD histogram which illustrate upside bias suggests the commodity price to advance further upwards after closing above the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 67.35, 68.30

Support level: 65.70, 64.10

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel and target at 1296.00.

Resistance level: 1298.20, 1300.35

Support level: 1296.00, 1293.40

7 June 2018                         Daily Analysis

Dollar squandered as economic data softens.

                Greenback depreciates sharply against its other major peers on yesterday over-the-backdrop of softer regional economic data while Euro extend its gains following hawkish comments from central bank members. The dollar index tumbled down 0.10% while last seen around 93.55 during early Asian trading session. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, regional worker productivity rose slower than economist’s expectation for the first quarter, coming in with a reading of 0.4% versus consensus of 0.7%. The bearish reading has diminished some bullish sentiment towards a stronger labor market in the long-run following optimistic jobs report from last Friday. In addition, the US dollar was held back further after European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers signaled to tighten their monetary policy sooner than later on yesterday. ECB chief economist Peter Praet postulate that ECB will debate whether to scale back their bond purchases gradually during their meeting next week. In addition, Euro received further buyback following diminished political uncertainty in Italy. Pairing of EUR/USD extended gains by 0.08% to $1.1784 as of writing.

Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.25% to $65.12 per barrel after tumbling down on yesterday due to bearish US stockpiles data. According to Energy Information Administration, US crude stocks swelled up by 2.07 million barrels last week, missing economist expectation to reduce by 2.00 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price rose by 0.04% to $1,297.17 a troy ounce due to weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                                       Market                                  Event

23:15                                       CAD                                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Todays’ Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3410. Both MA line which continues to expand upwards suggests the pair to continue its bullish bias, towards the direction of 1.3460.

Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3410, 1.3360

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended gains after regaining some support near the threshold of 1.1650. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 1.1790.

Resistance level: 1.1790, 1.1865

Support level: 1.1740, 1.1650

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel following recent retrace from the top level. MACD histogram which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term in the event of a closure below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 110.55, 111.00

Support level: 110.00, 109.40

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a tight range following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which begin to form a retracement signal from the overbought region suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the range.

Resistance level: 65.70, 67.35

Support level: 64.10, 63.00

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1301.20. Diminishing upward momentum from the MACD histogram suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1301.20

Support level: 1290.00, 1282.10

6 June 2018                         Daily Analysis

Greenback relinquished as Euro retributes.

Greenback droops against other major peers on Tuesday following major buyback on the Euro while optimistic US economic data being dismissed by investors. The dollar index extended losses by 0.12% to 93.80 during early Asian trading hours. In the economic front, ISM reported that Non-Manufacturing PMI for the month of May ticks up to 58.6, beating economist forecast of only 57.9. Likewise, job openings in the US rose to a total of 6.7 million in April, exceeding economist expectation for a decrease to 6.5 million. However, the optimistic data failed to safe-guard a bullish rebound following bullish surge in the Euro due to diminished political risk. Major buyback came in after Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte insist that they have never discuss the country’s exit from the EU economic zone, debunking previous speculation for such measures to be pushed forward. Likewise, the single common currency received further bullish support after reports postulate that European Central Bank may reveal their cut-off date to stop asset purchases next week, igniting speculation for an imminent monetary policy tightening up ahead. As such, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.12% to $1.1724 as of writing.

Pondering into the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.11% to $65.55 after American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude inventories was down by 2.03 million barrels last week. Market participants will now keep a close eye on a similar report by the highly regarded Energy Information Administration to gain further market signals. Similarly, gold price rose 0.06% to $1,297.35 a troy ounce as investors initiate a buyback on the commodity due to weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended gains following prior rebound from the upward trendline at 1.3300. MACD histogram which has formed an upward signal suggests further bullish bias. However, a breakout from 1.3410 is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1.3410, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3360, 1.3300

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate slightly diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1740, 1.1790

Support level: 1.1705, 1.1650

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the mid-level. Both MACD histogram and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate downward signal may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 110.00, 111.55

Support level: 109.40, 108.85

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while recently breakthrough the downward trendline. MACD histogram which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after successfully breaking the resistance level at 65.70.

Resistance level: 65.70, 67.35

Support level: 64.10, 63.00

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the strong resistance level at 1297.00. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of golden cross signal suggests gold price to extend its gains in the event of a closure above the target of 1297.00 and 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1301.20

Support level: 1290.00, 1282.10

5 June 2018                         Daily Analysis

Greenback stages its rebound as Italy stirs up politics.

US dollar pared its losses against other major currencies on yesterday over the backdrop of positive economic data while investors monitor imminent political risk arise from the formation of new government in Italy. The dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies added up 0.04% to 93.96 during early Asian trading hours. Overnight, greenback rebounds from its prior one-week low after US Commerce Department reported that Non-Defense Capital Shipments rose 0.9% last month, beating economist expectation for a rise of up to 0.8%. However, gains on the currency were capped after Durable Goods Orders fell in line with economist forecast with a reading of -1.6% for last month. On the other hand, pairing of EUR/USD retreats from its one-week high, down 0.02% to $1.1698. The single common currency received a bearish blow since few weeks ago following higher political risk within the economic zone. Although administration crisis in Italy has been resolved since last Friday with the swearing in of new government formed by 5-Star Movement and League, both parties remained as anti-EU and may have clashes with Brussels in the long-run. For the time being, investors will anticipate parliamentary approval for 18-members of cabinet before setting out to overhaul EU rules and establish their policy.

For the commodities market, crude oil price backtracks its losses by 0.25% to $65.00 per barrel while gains remain limited as market prospect soured due to OPEC’s suggestion to ramp up daily production in order to offset diminished supplies from Iran and Venezuela. On the contrary, gold price was down 0.03% to $1,292.07 a troy ounce as US Federal Reserve is expected to hike their interest rate next week which could lead to diminishing appeal of the safe-haven asset.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

12:30                     AUD                                        RBA Rate Statement

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement and closure below the 60-MA line (green). Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the target at 1.3300.

Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3410

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3260

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending wedge while currently testing at the lower level. Both MACD histogram and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate downward signal suggests bearish bias. Thus, a successful breakout from the bottom level would provide further validation.

Resistance level: 1.1740, 1.1815

Support level: 1.1650, 1.1600

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior rebound from the support level at 109.40. Both MACD histogram and MA lines suggests further bullish bias for the pair. However, a close above the resistance level at 110.00 is required to attain further validation.

Resistance level: 110.00, 110.55

Support level: 109.40, 108.85

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its bearish bias and move towards the direction of support level near 64.10.

Resistance level: 65.70, 67.30

Support level: 64.10, 61.80

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate downward signal suggests further bearish bias. However, a breakout from 1290.00 is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1297.00, 1301.20

Support level: 1290.00, 1286.00

1 June 2018                         Daily Analysis

Greenback rebounds over robust fundamentals. 

Greenback rebounds from its session low during North American trading hours following optimistic economic data from the region and a retreat in Euro despite diminishing political risk in the region. The dollar index was quoted up 0.02% to 93.90 during early Asian trading session. Overnight, Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – Core PCE Price Index rose more than expected with 0.2%, beating economist forecast of only 0.1% for month-over-month comparison in April. In terms of jobs market, US Department of Labour reported a drop in Initial Jobless Claims last week, down by 13,000 individuals to a seasonally adjusted total of 221,000. Both data came helped the greenback to recover some losses after it received tremendous bearish bias following a rise in Euro and weaker-than-expected first quarter GDP reading. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD was down 0.02% to $1.1690 while investors place their sole attention over political turmoil in Spain. Spain Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is expected to face the no-confidence vote scheduled to take place later today after being called to step down following multiple graft allegation.

In the commodities market, crude oil price settled down by 0.07% to $66.98 per barrel despite massive draw in US crude supplies as US oil output continued its expansion by rising 215,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.47 million bpd in March. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.03% to $1,298.47 a troy ounce as investors monitor ongoing geopolitical tension around the globe.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

08:30                     USD                                        FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

20:55                     USD                                        FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the mini upward trendline. MACD histogram which begins to illustrate increasing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3345

Support level: 1.3260, 1.3220

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement and closure below the target of 1.1700. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after a bearish retrace from the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1750

Support level: 1.1600, 1.1500

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher after receiving some support from the threshold at 108.30. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent upward signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 108.85.

Resistance level: 108.85, 109.40

Support level: 108.30, 107.50

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended losses following prior retracement from the resistance level at 68.30. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its losses towards the direction of 65.75.

Resistance level: 67.40, 68.30

Support level: 65.75, 64.05

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests further bearish bias. However, a close below the support level at 1297.00 is required to attain further validation.

Resistance level: 1301.20, 1306.00

Support level: 1297.00, 1290.00

31 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Euro recuperate as political conundrum recedes.

US dollar received a bearish turnaround following the release of pessimistic economic data while coupled with a relief in EU political risk. The dollar index recorded a loss of 0.09% while last quoted at 94.00 during Asian trading hours. Overnight, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change showed lesser-than-expected jobs generated in the private sector with 178,000 versus 186,000. The data which is highly correlated to Nonfarm Payrolls report has dimmed economist expectation towards the latter. Similarly, Gross Domestic Product advanced slower than expected during the first quarter with only 2.2% versus 2.3% seen. In addition, greenback received further selling pressure after risk aversion towards Euro-denominated asset subsides. Abrupt change upon investor’s risk appetite came after interim Prime Minister Carlo Cottarelli postulate that the discussion to form an interim government is progressing, attenuating investors’ fear towards imminent EU-Exit referendum that may arise from fresh election for the time being. Pairing of EUR/USD ticked down 0.05% while last seen at $1.1656.

Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price settled down 0.40% to $67.89 per barrel after American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in US crude stockpiles by 1.001M during last week. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.15% to $1,303.07 a troy ounce over the backdrop of weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

00:30                     USD                       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

01:00                     USD                       FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. However, MACD histogram which illustrate upward signal may suggest the pair to extend its gains and retest near the downward trendline at 1.3300 in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3140

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction, towards the direction of 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1750

Support level: 1.1600, 1.1500

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of support level at 108.30.

Resistance level: 108.85, 109.40

Support level: 108.30, 107.50

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 68.30. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggest the commodity price to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction, towards the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 68.30, 69.45

Support level: 67.40, 65.75

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended gains following prior breakout from the top level of descending triangle. MACD histogram which illustrate upward signal suggests further bullish momentum. However, a close above the minor resistance at 1304.00 is required to attain further validation.

Resistance level: 1304.00, 1308.00

Support level: 1300.00, 1296.00

30 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Dollar stands tall as EU-risk demoralize investors.

Greenback extended gains to fresh 6-months high against its major peers following high volume of selloff explicitly on the Euro over the backdrop of rising political uncertainty. During the Asian trading session, the dollar index rose 0.46% while last quotes around 94.75. Prior, Italy faces imminent calls for election after two anti-establishment party abandoned their plans to form a coalition government. Snap election could deliver a blow to the EU as the outcome would have chances to form a Eurosceptic government that could challenge Italy’s membership in the integrated economic region. As such, investors dialed down their volume of investment’s in the EU particularly Italian’s assets while flocking towards assets which is denominated in the US dollar. However, gains on the greenback remained capped after Conference Board revealed that consumer confidence in the US rose to only 128.0 versus forecast of 128.2 for the month of May. For the time being, investors will place their attention on major economic releases from the US such as ADP, PCE and NFP report to gauge its economic growth momentum and future monetary policy stance.

Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.06% to $66.78 during early Asian trading session as investors fret over OPEC’s pledge to increase production to offset imminent supply shortage from Venezuela and Iran. On the contrary, gold price extended gains by 0.12% to $1,300.07 a troy ounce following mild risk aversion in the market due to political risk in the EU region.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

09:10                     NZD                                        RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks

22:00                     CAD                                        BoC Rate Statement

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses following prior breakout from the support level at 1.3300. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before continuing its major bearish bias thereafter.

Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3140

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within a mini descending wedge following prior retracement from the upper level. Recent formation of retrace signal prior to the overbought region suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the formation.

Resistance level: 1.1600, 1.1665

Support level: 1.1500, 1.1450

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior closure below the strong support level at 108.85. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level near 108.30.

Resistance level: 108.85, 109.40

Support level: 108.30, 107.50

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retrace signal from the overbought regions suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red). Otherwise, long-term trend direction could only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the channel.

Resistance level: 67.40, 68.30

Support level: 65.75, 64.05

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of clarity from MACD histogram and price action, it is suggested to enter the market after a successful breakout has occur from either side of the triangle.

Resistance level: 1308.00, 1314.95

Support level: 1300.00, 1296.00

29 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Euro succumbed to political tempest.

Greenback remained fluoresce although two major markets were closed on yesterday following heightened political uncertainty in the European Union. The dollar index rose 0.24%, peaking at fresh 6 months high of 94.38 during Asian trading hours. Euro received tremendous selling pressure in the market after former IMF director Carlo Cottarelli was named as the stopgap Prime Minister of Italy. His appointment came amidst political and constitutional turmoil after two anti-establishment parties abandoned their plans to form a coalition following a veto from head of state to block the nomination of their choice for finance minister. Italy’s political unrest alongside with graft allegation made upon Spanish’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may lead to a further setback on the union’s economy and thus spooking off investors towards the single common currency. Pair of EUR/USD was down 0.27% while hovering near six-months low of $1.1623.

As for commodities, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.54% to $66.92 while gains remained limited as traders weighed the possibility of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia in ceasing curbs on their daily production levels. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.03% to $1,297.50 as stronger dollar reduces the appeal of the commodity to holders of other currencies.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:00                     USD                        FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending triangle following prior retracement from the upper level. Diminishing upward momentum from MACD histogram may suggests further bearish bias. However, a successful breakout from the strong support at 1.3300 is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3215

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of descending wedge. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of support level near 1.1600.

Resistance level: 1.1665, 1.1700

Support level: 1.1600, 1.1500

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY has recently broke out from the bottom level of ascending channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. MACD histogram which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level at 108.85.

Resistance level: 109.40, 110.00

Support level: 108.85, 108.30

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following a rebound near the support level at 65.75. Diminishing downward momentum from MACD histogram may suggests the crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extend its bearish bias for the mid-term.

Resistance level: 67.40, 68.30

Support level: 65.75, 64.05

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded in an uptrend while currently testing at the strong threshold of 1300.00. MACD histogram and Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate upward signal suggests bullish bias. However, a successful close above 1300.00 is required to attain further validation.

Resistance level: 1300.00, 1308.00

Support level: 1296.00, 1288.50

25 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Dollar slumps over negative economic data and renewed geopolitical tensions.

Dollar index was traded lower against its major peers by 0.23% to 93.80 as of writing following the release of bearish economic data in the region and President Trump’s cancellation of planned summit with North Korea. Overnight, Greenback took a hit after the Commerce Department reported reduction in existing home sales by 2.5% in April, much higher than the expected reading for a fall of 0.2%. In addition, initial jobless claims recorded gains of 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 last week versus the expected reading for a drop to only 220,000. Moreover, Greenback suffered massive selling after the White House stated it would be “inappropriate” to discuss possible denuclearization with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un which was previously scheduled to be held on June 12 in Singapore following open hostility displayed in the recent statement of the latter party. On the contrary, GBP/USD rose 0.25% to $1.3369 after retail sales reflected an actual gains of 1.6% versus the forecast reading of 0.8% in April.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 1.57% to $70.71 per barrel as the oil market was continuously being haunted by fears over OPEC and its allies to scale back production cut as a measure to counter possible oil shortage in global market. Otherwise, gold price rose 1.18% to $1302.51 a troy ounce following the summit between U.S. and North Korea was being called off by the White House, thus triggering renewed geopolitical tensions.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

21:00                     USD                       Fed Chair Powell Speaks

23:45                     USD                       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

23:45                     USD                       FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1.3400. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.3330.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3450

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3270

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.1720. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the next support level at 1.1680.

Resistance level: 1.1720, 1.1770

Support level: 1.1680, 1.1610

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 109.30. Positive divergence as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the next resistance level at 109.70.

Resistance level: 109.70, 110.00

Support level: 109.30, 108.90

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 71.20. However, golden-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.

Resistance level: 71.20, 71.80

Support level: 70.60, 69.80

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1305.20. Formation of death cross by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1300.50.

Resistance level: 1305.20, 1310.40

Support level: 1300.50, 1296.30

24 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Greenback retraces over dovish FOMC statement and Trump’s new tariff plan.

Dollar index was down by 0.12% to 93.79 as of writing following dovish FOMC statement while Trump’s new US auto tariff proposal continued to weigh on the Greenback. Overnight, the FOMC Committee released their statement that there was a lack of urgency to tighten monetary policy in a more aggressive pace given that “modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with the committee’s symmetric inflation target and could be helpful in anchoring inflation expectations in the long run”. In addition, according to the administration officials and industry executives, US President Trump and his administration is looking into using national-security laws to impose new tariffs on vehicle imports, thus provoking market participants’ concerns over the risks of global trade war. On the other hand, GBP/USD fell 0.67% to $1.3355 following the release of worse-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in April, last stood at 2.4% versus the expected reading of 2.5%, thus lowering investors’ expectations towards the Bank of England (BoE) to increase its interest rates within a shorter timeframe.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.15% to $71.63 per barrel following expectations over the potential increase in OPEC output in response to make up for reduced supply from Iran and Venezuela. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.20% to $1294.00 a troy ounce in the wake of recent geopolitical uncertainty as triggered by Trump’s new tariff plan.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     GBP                       BoE Gov Carney Speaks

16:15                     USD                       FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

19:30                     EUR                       ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

22:35                     USD                       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

Tentative (Fri)      EUR                         BoE Gov Carney Speaks

02:00 (Fri)             USD                       FOMC Member Harker Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.3330. MACD signal line that shows continuous weakness would suggest the pair to continue its losses towards the support level at 1.3330.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3450

Support level: 1.3330, 1.3270

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.1680. MACD signal line that shows continuous bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses to retest the said support level.

Resistance level: 1.1730, 1.1780

Support level: 1.1680, 1.1630

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower after breaking support level at 110.00. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses if candlestick successfully closes below the support level at 109.60.

Resistance level: 110.00, 110.40

Support level: 109.60, 109.30

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower prior its failure to break resistance level at 71.75. MACD signal line that portrays weakness in bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses if candlestick closes below the previous low.

Resistance level: 71.80, 72.20

Support level: 71.20, 70.60  

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded in consolidation with absence of significant indication from both candlestick pattern formation and MACD. Thus, a breakout is required to grasp the direction of price movement for the yellow metal in short-term.

Resistance level: 1296.30, 1300.50

Support level: 1288.60, 1285.30

23 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Dollar retraces ahead FOMC meeting minutes.

Dollar index was down 0.08% against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies to 93.40 as of writing following absence of economic catalysts while investors sold their long position on the Greenback ahead the release of FOMC meeting minutes due tomorrow morning (GMT+8). In spite of that, market still portrays optimistic sentiment towards the Fed to tighten its monetary policy in the coming meeting minutes due to recent rise in bond yields as well as healthy economic growth as displayed by most of the recent economic data. On the contrary, Euro suffered losses against the Greenback by 0.16% to $1.1780 following continuous political uncertainty in Italy and economic recession in the European zone.

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.24% to $72.00 per barrel off its 3.5 year highs following prospect over the OPEC to increase its oil output next month after the former expressed its concerns over Iranian supply curb and falling Venezuelan output. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.14% to $1292.80 a troy ounce following recent retracement of the Greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00 (Thu)            USD                       FOMC Meeting Minutes

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.3450. MACD signal line that portrays weakness of bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the trend line of ascending triangle is successful.

Resistance level: 1.3450, 1.3510

Support level: 1.3400, 1.3330

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after retracement from resistance level at 1.1830. MACD signal line that is about to form a death-cross would suggest the pair to extend its losses if it successfully closes candlestick below the 38.2 Fibonacci level.

Resistance level: 1.1780, 1.1830

Support level: 1.1740, 1.1680

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower after breaking support level at 111.00. MACD signal line that portrays continuous downside momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 110.40.

Resistance level: 111.00, 111.40

Support level: 110.40, 110.00

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 72.20. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses towards the support level at 71.70.

Resistance level: 72.20, 72.80

Support level: 71.70, 71.20

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1295.20. MACD signal line that is about to form a death-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses if candlestick successfully closes below its previous low.

Resistance level: 1295.20, 1300.40

Support level: 1285.30, 1275.90

22 May 2018                       Daily Analysis

Dollar-bull smitten as Euro rebounds sharply.

US dollar eased from its five-months peak as bullish support falters due to strong recovery of Euro from its multi-months low. The dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.15% to 93.40 as of writing. During yesterday’s Asian session, the greenback received some bullish support following US Treasury Steven Mnuchin call for a pause on the US-China trade war, triggering a short-term wave of buybacks on the dollar against the safe-haven Japanese yen. However, the dollar turned bearish as we entered into the North American session after investors returned to the Euro equity market which received a large selloff due to higher political risk which stemmed from Italy. The formation of coalition government between Five-Star Movement and League that proposes large sum of fiscal spending agitated investors which may jeopardize Italy’s sovereign credit rating. Pairing of EUR/USD was traded flat at around $1.1791 during Asian trading session.

Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.19% to $72.42 per barrel as investors begin to cash in their profit after peaking at fresh three-and-a-half-years high of $72.65 on yesterday. The bullish momentum was evoked after last weekend’s election in Venezuela is viewed as illegitimate while raising the prospect of US sanctions to be imposed on the country’s oil export. Otherwise, gold price extended gains by 0.03% to $1,292.61 a troy ounce over the backdrop of a weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                   Event

All Day                   HKD                                        Hong Kong – The Birthday of the Buddha

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                   Event

16:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

17:00                     GBP                                        Inflation Report Hearings

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the psychological support of 1.3400. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before extending its losses in tandem with the current major downward trendline.

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3400, 1.3245

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.1725. Recent formation of upward signal from the MACD histogram may suggest the pair to extend its gains in short-term after successfully breaking the resistance level at 1.1790. Otherwise, long-term trend direction is still skewed towards bearish.

Resistance level: 1.1790, 1.1870

Support level: 1.1725, 1.1665

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement and closure below the threshold of 111.00. Recent formation of negative divergence signal from MACD histogram may suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 111.00, 111.65

Support level: 110.55, 109.90

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended its major bullish trending following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line which continues to expand upwards suggests the commodity price to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level near 73.80.

Resistance level: 73.80, 77.75

Support level: 68.60, 66.10

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price re-entered into the sideways channel following prior rebound from the support level of 1282.50. Recent formation of upward signal from MACD histogram may suggests the commodity price to advance further up in short-term, towards the direction of resistance level near 1295.70.

Resistance level: 1295.70, 1301.90

Support level: 1287.50, 1282.50