050318 Weekly Analysis
5 March 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: March 5 – 9
Market Review (Forex): February 26 – March 2
Greenback extended its losses last Friday following the proposal of US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports which could raise higher chances to a global trade war. The dollar index recorded a loss of 0.38% during late Friday trading while closing at around 89.98 for the week.
According to Donald Trump, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on steel imports while 10% tariff on aluminum imports. The highly controversial move raised fears that the US main trading partners which includes China would take countermeasures, triggering a trade war between countries.
In retaliation, the EU emphasize that the economic bloc is contemplating to endorse duties upon $3.5 billion of US imports if they proceed with Trump’s tariff proposal. The announcement has sparked higher risk aversion in the financial market with investors flocking towards safe-haven currencies and assets such as Japanese Yen and gold.
The decision came two days after a hawkish rhetoric delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his first testimonial which calls for a gradual pace of interest rate hike over the backdrop of persistent economic growth and performance.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY extended losses by 0.44% to 105.75. Japanese Yen received further bullish support after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda postulate that the central bank is considering to exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy by 2019 as there is high chances for their inflation to attain the bank’s target.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD appreciates further, cashing in 0.43% to $1.2317 during late Friday trading session.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling rose 0.20% to $1.3800 against the greenback on Friday. However, further upside on the currency remains limited amid Brexit-related woes after Prime Minster Theresa May suggested to reduce UK’s access to the single market which would reduce the chances for a so called soft Brexit outcome.
Market Review (Commodities): February 26 – March 2
GOLD
Gold price remains well in bid following widespread risk aversion in the market after US President Donald Trump suggested to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum import. Price of the precious metal rose $5.42 or 0.41% to $1,322.49 a troy ounce.
US President Donald Trump announced last Thursday to impose import tariff as much as 25% and 10% to steel and aluminum respectively, sparking higher chances of retaliation from US major trade members such as China.
In spite of higher demand for safe-haven, gold prices still set to post its second consecutive weekly losses as the yellow metal failed to appreciate further due to hawkish rhetoric delivered by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell with regards to future interest rate hike.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price mends some losses during late Friday trading while upside remained limited due to fears over rising US crude production which has achieved an all-time high. Price of the black commodity appreciates by $0.12 or 0.20% to $61.52 per barrel.
According to US oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US rose by 1 to 800, its highest level since 2nd April 2015. The data has added further concern over the US following Wednesday’s report which shows an uptick in daily crude production which has achieved record high of 10.3 million barrels per day. Its current level has positioned the US as the world’s second largest oil producer after Russia, fueling fears that it may take some time for rebalancing to occur in the market.
Adding further into overall bearish sentiment was a rather pessimistic report from EIA’s inventories reading for last week. US crude inventories rose 3.019 million barrels, exceeding expected rise of only 2.4 million barrels while gasoline inventories rose sharply by 2.483 million barrels versus a decline of 190,000 barrels seen. A higher stock count for gasoline may spell trouble for the commodity global price as it may portray a lower activity in refinery which could lead to a supply glut in the market.
Weekly Outlook: March 5 – 9
For the week ahead, investors will be paying attention to regional central bank meeting in Australia, Eurozone, Canada and Japan to attain further clues with regards to their views upon current economic condition and future monetary policy. Otherwise, market participants will also anticipate the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday – one of the import barometer which provides a clearer picture with regards to US employment market health and condition.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: March 5 – 9
| Monday, March 5 |
Data AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Jan) CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Feb) EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) EUR – Services PMI (Feb) GBP – Services PMI (Feb) EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) USD – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) USD – Services PMI (Feb) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, March 6 |
Data GBP – BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Feb) AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) CAD – Ivey PMI (Feb)
Events USD – FOMC Member Quarles Speaks AUD – RBA Rate Statement USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
|
| Wednesday, March 7 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) GBP – Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Feb) EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) USD – ADP Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) CAD – Trade Balance (Jan) CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks GBP – Annual Budget Release USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks CAD – BoC Rate Statement
|
| Thursday, March 8 |
Data JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Feb) EUR – Deposit Facility Rate EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) CAD – Housing Starts (Feb) USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Jan) CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jan)
Events EUR – ECB Press Conference
|
|
Friday, March 9
|
Data JPY – Household Spending (MoM) (Jan) CNY – CPI (YoY) (Feb) CNY – PPI (YoY) (Feb) JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) EUR – German Trade Balance (Jan) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) GBP – Trade Balance (Jan) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) USD – Participation Rate (Feb) USD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) CAD – Employment Change (Feb) CAD – Unemployment Rate (Feb) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks JPY – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY) JPY – BoJ Press Conference USD – FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: March 5 – 9
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 60-MA line (green). MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward signal and momentum suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 90.00, 91.30
Support level: 88.40, 86.80
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of narrowing triangle. However, recent rebound while coupled with diminishing downward momentum from MACD histogram suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction after closing above the psychological level of 1.3800.
Resistance level: 1.3800, 1.3970
Support level: 1.3600, 1.3400
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained in a bearish trend following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD histogram begins to form an imminent downward signal suggests further bearish bias. Thus, a close below the minor support at 105.45 is required to gain further validation.
Resistance level: 105.95, 108.40
Support level: 105.45, 103.35
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its recovery following prior rebound from the support level near 1.2170. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to advance further upwards after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Downside on the gold price remains limited following prior rebound from the strong support level at 1312.00. In tandem with recent price action, diminishing downward momentum from the MACD histogram suggests the commodity price to extend its upside bias after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70
Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently rebounded from the support level at 60.80. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate a rebound signal from the oversold region suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction can only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 63.75, 66.65
Support level: 60.80, 59.00
020318 Daily Analysis
02 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull terminator: Trump’s tariff casted fears of trade war.
Dollar index was traded lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.41% to 90.24 following fears of trade war triggered by President Donald Trump’s statement to impose tariffs on commodity imports started next week. According to the U.S. president, a 25% tariff and a 10% tariff will be imposed on steel and aluminium imports respectively. The highly controversial move has casted fears that the U.S. main trading partners including China could take countermeasures. All in all, investors’ sentiment remained optimistic following President Fed Jerome Powell who reiterated yesterday during the second part of testimony that no evidence is seen on current economy that is overheating while an increase in wage growth was not significant. On the contrary, GBP/USD was traded steadily around key level $1.3775 while investors on-eyed towards speech by UK Prime Minister Theresa May regarding Brexit deal.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.4% to $61.15 per barrel following optimistic sentiment for a global oil surplus is coming to an end. In respective of that, the OPEC will be having its meeting with U.S. shale firms in Houston to discuss topics on taming a global oil glut. Likewise, gold price rose 0.06% to $1316.01 a troy ounce following fears of a global trade war,
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
18:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative GBP UK Prime Minister May Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Jan) | -0.1% | -0.3% | – |
| 07:30 | JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 0.9% | 0.9% | – |
| 07:30 | JPY – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 0.7% | 0.8% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -1.9% | 0.9% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Feb) | 50.2 | 50.5 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) | 95.7 | 98.9 | – |
| 02:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 799 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.3805. MACD histogram that displays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to retest its previous low.
Resistance level: 1.3805, 1.3915
Support level: 1.3665, 1.3455
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.2215. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.2310.
Resistance level: 1.2310, 1.2390
Support level: 1.2215, 1.2165
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 106.10. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 106.50, 107.10
Support level: 106.10, 105.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 60.20. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 61.80.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.20
Support level: 60.20, 58.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1305.85. MACD signal line that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade higher if breakout at the 78.6 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1317.90, 1327.10
Support level: 1305.85, 1294.15
010318 Daily Analysis
01 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar bull remains buoyant despite weak economic data.
Dollar index was traded fairly stronger against its major peers after it rose 0.18% to 90.61 as of writing. Despite the release of bearish economic data on yesterday, the greenback limits its losses as market participants’ sentiment turned optimistic on a more aggressive stance towards interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Overnight, the annual pace of growth in the U.S. surrendered its gains by 0.1% to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. In addition, the Chicago business barometer fell from 65.7 to 62.9 this month while pending home sales did not perform on par with economists’ forecast of a 0.4% increase, last stood at -4.7%. By 11pm (GMT+8) tonight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be attending the second part of testimonial whereby a question-and-answer (Q&A) session is to be expected. Any key point elaborated is likely to stir market volatility to a greater extent. On the contrary, USD/JPY was down 0.68% to 106.61 following a “mini tapering” by Bank of Japan (BoJ) that reduces its 25-40Y JGBs purchase by a 10 billion Yen on yesterday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 11cents to $61.53 per barrel following an increase in U.S. crude inventories by 3 million barrels which is much greater than the expected 2.1 million barrels. Likewise, gold price was down 0.05% to $1315.90 a troy ounce as investors remained optimistic towards the Fed to adopt a more aggressive stance on its monetary policy this year.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
00:00 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) | 1.0% | 1.1% | -0.2% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 51.5 | 51.3 | – |
| 15:00 | GBP – Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.6% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 60.3 | 60.3 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 58.5 | 58.5 | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 55.3 | 55.1 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 222K | 226K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) | 54.2 | 57.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.3805. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.3665.
Resistance level: 1.3805, 1.3915
Support level: 1.3665, 1.3455
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.2215. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the next support level at 1.2165.
Resistance level: 1.2215, 1.2310
Support level: 1.2165, 1.2045
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 106.50. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 107.40, 108.50
Support level: 106.50, 105.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 61.80. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its downside bias towards the next support level at 60.20.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.20
Support level: 60.20, 58.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1317.90. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1305.85.
Resistance level: 1317.90, 1327.10
Support level: 1305.85, 1294.15
280218 Daily Analysis
28 February 2018 Daily Analysis
Powell’s optimistic outlook sends dollar higher.
Dollar index was traded higher against its major peers by 0.58% to 90.25 as of writing following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Capitol Hill testimony on inflation and economic growth in U.S. Overnight, Powell revealed his optimistic outlook towards current economic conditions in U.S. by noting that the economy was benefiting from global recovery and changes in fiscal policy. Thus, a gradual increase in interest rates should be seen this year which it has bolstered a surge in the Greenback. In addition, Powell’s speech has overshadowed a mixed bag of economic data: CB consumer confidence that rose to 130.8 versus the expected reading of 121.0 while durable goods orders fell 3.7% last month which was much lower than the forecast reading of a 2.4% fall. On the contrary, GBP/USD was down 0.28% to $1.3900 following a deteriorating Brexit negotiations when the Europeans dismissed Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest proposals on a trade deal after Brexit. The UK Prime Minister is to be laying out her post-Brexit vision of relations with the EU in a speech on Friday. Any negative reaction by the Europeans is seen as sending the Pound Sterling to a worse condition.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down by 0.3% to $62.57 per barrel following an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles by 933,000 barrels to 421.2 million. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.13% to $1317.99 a troy ounce following slight recovery from previous low that was induced by Powell’s optimistic speech.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – Industrial Production | 2.9% | -4.1% | – |
| 08:00 | NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Feb) | -37.8 | – | – |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 51.3 | 51.4 | – |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 55.3 | 55.0 | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – Gfk German Consumer Climate | 11.0 | 10.8 | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) | -25K | -17K | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 5.4% | 5.4% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.3% | 1.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.6% | 2.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.4% | 2.4% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.9% | – | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Feb) | 65.7 | 64.1 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – CrudeOIL Inventories | -1.616M | – | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 0.261M | -0.283M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation within a descending triangle. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses further if breakout at 61.8 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.4350, 1.4990
Support level: 1.3850, 1.3490
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.2310. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to continue its downside bias towards the support level at 1.2160.
Resistance level: 1.2310, 1.2390
Support level: 1.2160, 1.2050
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 106.45. Formation of pin bar candlestick and MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 108.45.
Resistance level: 108.45, 110.15
Support level: 106.45, 104.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 63.25 and 200-MA line. MACD histogram that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses towards the next support level at 61.80.
Resistance level: 63.25, 64.55
Support level: 61.80, 60.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1317.90. However, MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1317.90, 1327.10
Support level: 1305.85, 1294.15
270218 Daily Analysis
27 February 2018 Daily Analysis
Powell’s testimony in focus today.
Dollar index was consolidating the 90.0 handle with less volume while market participants are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 23:00 (GMT +8). On his first ever testimony, Powell is expected to provide his views on a wide range of topics which could serve as a catalyst to a more aggressive market movement later on. Market participants will be on-eyed towards the Fed’s future plan on monetary tightening following U.S. 10-year bond yields which have approached the 3.00% psychological level. Meanwhile, some analysts predicted that the tightening path could be remained gradual following concerns over inflationary pressure in the region. On the contrary, GBP/USD was down 0.08% to $1.3970 as of writing after Labor party took a different stance instead of a softer approach towards Brexit. According to Labor party leader Corbyn, they are considering a different Brexit deal regarding a new customs union with the EU which enables UK to trade seamlessly with the EZ without paying any duties. The Brexit saga was deemed to never ending which has negatively impacted on the Pound Sterling.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.23% to its three-weeks high, currently standing at $64.03 per barrel following ongoing positive signs from OPEC and non –OPEC countries to continue their production curbs and a fall in U.S. production that dipped from 10.271 million bpd to 10.270 million bpd. Likewise, gold price rose 0.38% to $1335.77 a troy ounce while market participants await Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony due tonight.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:45 | NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Jan) | 640M | -2,710M | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 0.7% | 0.4% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Feb) | 125.4 | 126.3 | – |
| 05:30(Wed) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -0.907M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support at the 200-MA line. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards its previous low.
Resistance level: 1.3995, 1.4060
Support level: 1.3915, 1.3870
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded within consolidation without an obvious signal from both candlestick pattern formation and MACD histogram. A breakout is required for the pair to grasp a clearer indication on the next direction.
Resistance level: 1.2350, 1.2425
Support level: 1.2265, 1.2130
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior failure to break resistance level at 107.10. Death-cross as formed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the 200-MA line and support level 106.75 is successful.
Resistance level: 107.10, 107.75
Support level: 106.75, 106.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower prior retracement from trend line of ascending channel. MACD histogram that displays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price on bias to trade lower towards minor support level at 63.70 in short term.
Resistance level: 64.55, 66.20
Support level: 63.70, 63.25
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1331.05. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains if breakout at the current resistance level 1333.70 is successful.
Resistance level: 1333.70, 1340.00
Support level: 1331.05, 1327.40
260218 Weekly Analysis
26 February 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: February 26 – March 2
Market Review (Forex): February 19 – 23
Greenback pared its losses last Friday while traded flat against a basket of six major currencies after Federal Reserve hypothesize that gradual interest rate hike remains appropriate. The dollar index recorded a gain of up to 0.16% and ended the week around 89.88.
Previously, Federal Reserve in its monetary policy report said that the pace of wage gains was moderate albeit being weighed by low productivity. The Feds postulate that the current economic expansion continues to be supported by persistent job gains, rising household wealth, favorable consumer sentiment and accommodative financial conditions.
Although the minutes did not specify the case for an increased pace of interest rate hike within the year, overall hawkish tone adopted by the central bank reaffirms investors expectation for the Fed to raise interest rates by next month. On the other hand, overall gains on the dollar remains limited following an ongoing depreciation in the US bond yields due to the recent fall in Treasury prices.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY added up 0.04% and closing the week around 106.79.
EUR/USD
Euro extended its losses against the greenback, down 0.21% to $1.2304. The single common currency was under pressure following investors’ concern over the outcome of Italian election which is less than two-weeks away.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling pared its prior losses, up 0.15% to $1.3975 against the US dollar.
Market Review (Commodities): February 19 – 23
GOLD
Gold price received some bearish pressure last Friday while posting a weekly loss amid greenback strength despite Federal Reserve’s call to increase interest rates gradually. Price of the yellow metal sags by $2.18 or 0.16% to $1,329.97 a troy ounce while recording a weekly loss of 1.15%.
In general, gold is sensitive towards rising interest rates which may increases its opportunity cost for holding non-interest yielding assets such as bullion. However, losses on its prices were somewhat limited following an ongoing depreciation in US bond yields after attaining four-years high on Wednesday. Some analyst postulate that it could be a start of a long overdue correction due to the recent fall in US Treasury prices.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled higher on last Friday following a drop in Libyan production and optimistic comments from Saudi’s oil chief. Price of the black commodity notched up 1.52% or $0.95 to $63.65 per barrel. For the week, it has recorded a gain of up to 1.85% after suffering tremendous losses on the previous week.
Last Friday, US oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported an increase in the active oil drilling rigs by one to 799, its highest level since 2nd April 2015. However, the bearish data was offset by an earlier report of a dip in Libyan production due to oilfield shutdown which could reduce daily production by up to 70,000 barrels.
Further bullish support was catalyzed after Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih commented that the oil market begins to rebalance, while expecting global inventories to continue its decline throughout the year of 2018. His comments came in the wake of a steady increase of US production which could derail OPEC’s effort in rebalancing global oil price through daily output cuts.
Weekly Outlook: February 26 – March 2
For the week ahead, investors will place their attention on the United States as they are scheduled to their latest revision of GDP while newly elected Fed Chair Jerome Powell is bound to testify on Tuesday.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: February 26 – March 2
| Monday, February 26 |
Data USD – New Home Sales (Jan)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
| Tuesday, February 27 |
Data NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Jan) USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
|
| Wednesday, February 28 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil stock JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Feb) CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (Mar) EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Feb) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Jan) USD – Chicago PMI (Feb) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, March 1 |
Data AUD – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q4) CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) GBP – Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Jan) USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan) USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Events USD – Fed Chair Powell Testifies
|
|
Friday, March 2
|
Data JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Jan) JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) JPY – Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) GBP – Construction PMI (Feb) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Dec) USD –Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks GBP – UK Prime Minister May Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: February 26 – March 2
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the psychological level at 90.00. While MACD histogram continues to illustrate substantial upward signal provides some bullish bias, break above the resistance of 90.00 is required in order to gain further validation.
Resistance level: 90.00, 91.30
Support level: 88.40, 86.80
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently retraced from the mid-level. Recent price action which coincides with the downward signal from MACD histogram suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction can only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle formation.
Resistance level: 1.3970, 1.4210
Support level: 1.3800, 1.3600
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained under pressure following prior retracement before the 20-MA line (red). Both lines which continues to expand downwards suggests further bearish bias for the pair to extend its losses towards the direction at 105.95.
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70
Support level: 105.95, 103.35
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its losses while forming a double top formation with the neckline at 1.2270. MACD histogram which illustrate significant downward signal suggests further bearish bias. Thus, a break is required at the neckline of 1.2270 in order to further validate such bias.
Resistance level: 1.2500, 1.2600
Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended its losses following prior retracement from 1353.70 while forming a double top formation. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70
Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended gains following prior rebound from the support level at 60.80. MACD histogram which illustrate significant upward signal suggests the commodity price to advance further up after successfully breaking the resistance level at 63.75.
Resistance level: 63.75, 66.65
Support level: 60.80, 59.00
101117 Daily Analysis
10 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Tax reform delays bullish greenback.
Dollar index rebounded from its weekly losses earlier during the Asian trading session following investors’ disappointment with delayed expected corporate tax cuts by U.S. Senate Republicans. Greenback was traded flat against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, rose 0.07% to 94.51 as of writing. Although the corporate tax rate cut was proposed with a reduction from 35 percent to 20 percent, its implementation was signaled to be delayed by the Senate until 2019. A delay in tax cuts would further diminish Federal Reserve’s possibility to have more frequent rate hikes as the reformation was deemed to boost higher growth rate and Trumpflation. On the other hand, USD/CAD sheds further by 0.04% to $1.2679 as the commodity-sensitive Loonie is receiving an additional boost from crude oil prices which is still hovering near two-years high; adding over to the backdrop of disappointing tax reform bill that has pressurized the greenback.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained stable at around $57.00 as overall optimism towards OPEC in extending their production cut plans was balanced with recent bearish uptick in US crude inventories. Likewise, gold price depreciates by 11 cents to $1285.71 a troy ounce amid dollar’s recent recovery.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Trade Balance (Sep) | -14.25B | -12.80B | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) | 100.7 | 101.0 | – |
| 02:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 729 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.3110. Hidden positive divergence as formed by MACD histogram suggest the pair to trade higher prior breaking the trend line of descending triangle.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3110, 1.3045
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.1615. Formation of pin bar and positive divergence by MACD signal line suggest the pair to extend higher toward the next resistance level at 1.1670.
Resistance level: 1.1670, 1.1745
Support level: 1.1615, 1.1570
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded within descending channel and the pair was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 113.35. Formation of positive divergence by MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 113.70.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.20
Support level: 113.35, 112.95
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded in consolidation with absence of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD signal line. It is suggested to wait for breakout to occur for clearer indication of the price movement for the commodity.
Resistance level: 57.40, 57.95
Support level: 56.35, 55.65
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded within rising wedge and it was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1288.05. A breakout is required for future indication of price movement for the commodity following absence of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram.
Resistance level: 1288.05, 1300.60
Support level: 1280.55, 1273.75
091117 Daily Analysis
09 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Kiwi soared after RBNZ meeting minutes.
Kiwi was traded higher versus the dollar at 0.6948, adding up 0.24% during the Asian trading hours following Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s decision to keep their benchmark official cash rate steadied at 1.75% as expected. They warned that the inflation outlook was uncertain following pursue of new policies by the new government in the country. According to a statement by RBNZ Governor Grant Spencer, he mentioned that RBNZ has incorporated preliminary estimates of the impact of new government policies in four major areas which include new government spending, a homebuilding program, curbs on immigration and increases in the minimum wage. Despite of the uncertainty of the impact of these policies, an assumption is made that these policies combined would cast more fiscal stimulus in future. On the other hand, the dollar traded roughly unchanged overnight, fell 0.06% at 94.75 as of writing as investors mulled over media reports suggesting that the Senate GOP are considering a one-year delay in the implementation of corporate tax cuts. Besides that, the dollar was lacking its bullish momentum as investors shifted their attention towards President Donald Trump’s arrival in China where he is expected to have lengthy discussions on North Korea with President China Xi Jin Ping.
In the commodities market, crude oil price settled lower by 0.18% at $56.91 per barrel after EIA report that showed crude supplies rose by roughly 2.2 million barrels while production figures rose 0.7% to an all-time high of 9.62 million barrels per day, offsetting a larger-than-expected draw in refineries. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.02% to $1281.40 a troy ounce amid ongoing concerns over tax reform that weighed on the dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 04:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Oct) | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Trade Balance (Sep) | 21.6B | 21.1B | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 231K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD is currently testing back the previous high after breaking below it. Successful closure of candlestick above the current resistance level at 1.3120 would further suggest the pair to trade higher toward the next resistance level at 1.3170 and vice versa.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3170
Support level: 1.3050, 1.2980
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded within consolidation. Absence of obvious signal from candlestick pattern and MACD histogram suggest to wait for breakout to occur to grasp the next movement of the pair.
Resistance level: 1.1610, 1.1670
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1480
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking above the trend line and resistance level at 113.70. Successful closure of candlestick above the 200-MA line and golden-cross as formed by MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend higher toward the next resistance level at 114.20.
Resistance level: 114.20, 114.70
Support level: 113.70, 112.90
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded within consolidation. Absence of obvious signal from candlestick pattern and MACD histogram suggest to wait for breakout to grasp further momentum of the commodity price in nearer term.
Resistance level: 57.95, 61.40
Support level: 56.35, 54.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1282.60. Formation of negative divergence by MACD signal line suggests gold price to extend its losses toward the support by 200-MA line and support level at 1274.00 if breakout below the support at 1280.00 is successful.
Resistance level: 1282.60, 1289.70
Support level: 1280.00, 1274.00
081117 Daily Analysis
08 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback retracing while investors awaiting Trump’s speech.
Dollar index pared some of its gains by 0.22% to 94.67 as of writing despite data showing an uptick in labor market strength in U.S. as investors awaiting for President Donald Trump’s speech to wrap up his South Korea visit in Beijing, China on this Wednesday. Overnight, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) report released by the U.S. Labor Department, job openings in the month of September has improved to about 6.1 million versus the expected 6.091 million. All in all, the losses of the Greenback was limited amid signs of progress on tax reform after Republic lawmakers started to revise their proposed overhaul of the U.S. tax system on Monday. In addition, market sentiment toward the Greenback remained positive as data showed traders continued to abandon their bearish bets on the dollar. On the other hand, EUR/USD fell 0.23% to $1.1583 despite the upbeat retail sales data in Europe.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained on its foot with slight losses of 0.19% to $57.09 per barrel, following report as released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that revealed a fall in U.S. crude oil stocks by 1.562 million barrels last week, much less than the expected to fall by 2.100 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price achieved gains of 0.23% to $1276.63 a troy ounce following retracement of the Greenback from its session high.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) | 28.47B | 39.50B | – |
| 21:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Oct) | 217.1K | 211.0K | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) | -5.5% | -1.0% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.435M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.3115. Formation of pin bar candlestick and hidden positive divergence as shown by MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend higher toward the resistance level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3115, 1.2985
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior its failure to break support level at 1.1570. Formation of modified morning star candlestick pattern and golden-cross by MACD signal line suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher toward the resistance level at 1.1670.
Resistance level: 1.1670, 1.1750
Support level: 1.1570, 1.1480
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within ascending triangle and it is currently testing the trend line of the triangle. It is suggested to wait for breakout to occur at support level 113.70 for a clearer indication to short the pair.
Resistance level: 114.40, 115.30
Support level: 113.70, 112.95
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher prior gaining its support at 55.90. Formation of a long bullish candlestick and upward slope of MACD signal line suggest ongoing bullish momentum for the commodity price to trade higher toward the resistance level at 58.10.
Resistance level: 58.10, 62.55
Support level: 55.90, 54.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher after breaking the trend line of descending triangle. Golden-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggests gold price to extend higher toward the resistance level at 1280.00.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1282.60
Support level: 1274.00, 1269.00
071117 Daily Analysis
07 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar remained supported while RBA in focus.
Dollar index pared its losses against a basket of major currencies during Asia trading hours, rose 0.04% to 94.62 as of writing ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s interest rate decision. All in all, RBA is set to remain neutral with their latest interest rate decision at record low of 1.50% while some investors are expecting them to call for a rate cut following the recent sluggishness in retail sales and inflation data. Thus, market participants will lay their eyes on the latest rate statement to gauge their prospect towards future economic growth and monetary policy. On the other hand, Greenback gave up its gains against safe-haven currencies overnight amid political uncertainty in the Middle East following an anti-corruption drive led by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman which resulted in a series of arrests of prominent Saudi Arabians. In addition, confirmation of William Dudley – president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York to retire earlier in mid-2018 rather than when his term ends in January 2019 has further weighed on the Greenback. However, losses of the Greenback was limited as data showed that traders trimmed their bearish bets on the dollar since last week.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.19% to $57.24 per barrel with turmoil in the Middle East while investors are waiting for the American Petroleum Institute (API) to release its weekly estimates on crude and refined product stocks in the U.S. Likewise, gold price surged higher by 1.02% to $1279.00 a troy ounce, fuelled by political uncertainty in the Middle East.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
17:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
01:55 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
03:30 USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) | 2.6% | -0.8% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Oct) | 0.8% | 0.3% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings | 6.082M | 5.980M | – |
| 05:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.087M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.3105. The pair is currently testing resistance by 200-MA line. Successful closure above the 200-MA line would further indicate the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3105, 1.2985
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.1580. Formation of bullish engulfing candlestick pattern and positive divergence by MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend higher toward resistance level at 1.1670.
Resistance level: 1.1670, 1.1750
Support level: 1.1580, 1.1480
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within ascending triangle and currently traded lower after its failure to break resistance level at 114.40. It is suggested for the pair to extend losses toward the support level at 112.90 if breakout of the trend line is successful.
Resistance level: 114.40, 115.90
Support level: 112.90, 111.50
CrudeOIL
Crude OIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 54.75. Arrangement of bullish candlesticks and upward slope of MACD signal line suggest the commodity price to extend higher toward the next resistance level at 58.10.
Resistance level: 58.10, 62.55
Support level: 54.75, 48.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement and breaking below support level at 1280.00. Downward slope of MACD histogram suggests the pair to undergo short-term technical correction toward the support level at 1277.00.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1282.75
Support level: 1277.00, 1273.15
061117 Weekly Analysis
6 November 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: November 6 – 10
Market Review (Forex): October 30 – November 3
U.S. Dollar
Greenback pared its losses against six major currencies on Friday following the release of better-than-expected US factory orders and services sector data. The dollar index rose 0.22% to 94.83 in late trade after touching a low of 94.11.
A recap on the earlier session, US Labor Department reported a short fall in nonfarm payrolls, leading to an initial selloff on the greenback. For the month of October, US economy added 261,000 jobs, falling short of forecast for 315,000. In addition to that, average hourly earnings came in flat, missing consensus forecast of 0.2%. On the other note, overall unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 4.1%, suggesting a continuous robustness in the labor market.
On the other hand, factory orders came in at 1.4%, slightly higher than economist forecast of 1.3%. As for services sector, ISM reported an expansion in non-manufacturing employment while its PMI rose to its highest level since the index debuted in 2008. According to economists, the non-manufacturing sector reflected a third consecutive strong growth, indicating a positive outlook for business conditions and economic growth.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Economy generated 261,000 jobs in October, missing economist target of 315,000 jobs.
US Unemployment Rate
US unemployment continued its downtrend, attaining 4.1% for the month of October while portraying a robust labor market.
US Average Hourly Earnings
Average hourly earnings came in flat at 0%, indicating a slower growth in wages which could lead to diminished inflationary pressure.
US Factory Orders
US Factory Orders grew by 1.4% for the month of October, exceeding economist forecast of 1.3%.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Non-manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since 2008, with a reading of 60.1 for the month of October.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY was down by 0.25% to 113.62, off from prior three-months high at 114.43.
EUR/USD
Euro edged lower against the US dollar, down 1.48% for the week while closing in at $1.1608 following Catalonia’s parliament announcement for independence from Madrid, raising overall political risk in the economic bloc.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling was down by 0.21% to $1.3133, pressured by the prospect of a dovish rate hike which will not be followed by subsequent rate rise in for the time being.
Market Review (Commodities): October 30 – November 3
GOLD
Gold price fell to its lowest level in a week as the dollar regained its bullish momentum following upbeat US factory orders and services sector data. Its prices settled down 0.53% to $1,271.38 during late Friday trading while recording its third consecutive weekly decline of 0.2%.
However, the losses were remained capped as investors place their focus on a proposed tax overhaul outlined by the Republicans last Thursday. Although some traders believed that the tax reform could warrant for higher growth and more interest rate hikes, others were remained skeptical at how the large tax discount would be funded instead.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price extended its rally on Friday, touching its highest level in more than two years amid higher expectation that major oil producers will extend a deal to curb production beyond its expiry date next March.
Price of the commodity surged $1.10 or 2% while ended the week at $55.64 a barrel. For the week, its prices have recorded its fourth consecutive rise of 3.2%. its prices extended a rally which began early last month, mainly driven by bullish sentiment towards members and non-members of OPEC in extending a production cut deal at the end of this month. The oil cartel will be meeting on 30th November to discuss on the current market situation and their production cut plan.
Oil prices also received another boost as US Baker Hughes reported a sizeable decline in active oil drilling rigs, cementing further expectation for a slowdown in domestic crude output. The number of active drilling rig was down by 8 to 729, its fourth weekly decline out of five weeks.
US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
US active drilling rigs were down by 8 to 729 last week.
Weekly Outlook: November 6 – 10
For the week, investors will be eying on the progress of US tax reform bill in a rather quiet week for economic data. In the other region, China is bound to release data on trade and inflation while both reserve banks from Australia and New Zealand will be announcing their stance on monetary policy.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: November 6 – 10
| Monday, November 6 |
Data EUR – German Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Oct) EUR – Services PMI (Oct) CAD – Ivey PMI (Oct)
Events USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
|
| Tuesday, November 7 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov) EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Oct) USD – JOLTs Job Openings
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks USD – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
|
| Wednesday, November 8 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Oct) CAD – Housing Starts (Oct) CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, November 9 |
Data NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision CNY – CPI (YoY) (Oct) CNY – PPI (YoY) (Oct) EUR – German Trade Balance USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, November 10
|
Data GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) GBP – Trade Balance (Sep) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: November 6 – 10
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing at previous high of 94.90. A successful closure above this level would suggest an extension of bullish momentum towards the next target at 95.85.
Resistance level: 94.90, 95.85
Support level: 93.95, 92.50
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD has breakout from the bottom level of sideways channel, signifying a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Such price action suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the upward trend line near the support level of 1.3020.
Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3020, 1.2820
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout near the strong resistance level of 114.30. Both moving average line which continues to expand upwards suggest further bullish bias and a close above the level of 114.30 would provide further clarification.
Resistance level: 115.15, 116.20
Support level: 114.30, 113.00
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its bearish momentum following prior failure to close above the resistance level of 1.1700. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggest ongoing bearish bias and a successful close below the strong support level of 1.1600 would suggest an extension of downward momentum.
Resistance level: 1.1700, 1.1860
Support level: 1.1600, 1.1450
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was offered lower following prior inability to close above the 20-MA line (red) near 1281.00. Both MA lines which begins to skew downwards suggest gold price to extend its losses after breaking the strong support level at 1263.00.
Resistance level: 1281.00, 1299.05
Support level: 1263.00, 1237.35
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price advance further upwards following prior closure above the resistance level of 55.20. Signal line from MACD which illustrate substantial bullish bias suggest the commodity price to extend its upward momentum towards the next target at 56.70.
Resistance level: 56.70, 57.90
Support level: 55.20, 53.90
031117 Daily Analysis
03 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Sterling suicides as BoE hikes their rates.
GBP/USD plunged sharply on Thursday by 0.88% at 1.3062 as of writing following the Bank of England (BoE)’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 10-years with a dovish tone that any further rate hike in future would be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. The BoE reversed the rate cut of August 2016 following the aftermath of the Brexit vote that helped in cushioning Britain’s economy by voting to increase interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. Dovish momentum was initiated after BoE signaled that they will raise interest rates gradually over the next three years, suggesting a less frequent rate hike momentum as what investors are expecting. On the other hand, the US dollar held steady versus a trade-weighted basket of currencies during Asian trading hours, traded at $94.66 as of writing while investors shifted focus to U.S. jobs data after President Donald Trump came with no surprise by nominating Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to be the next Fed Chair. Overnight, the Greenback slipped after Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives released proposals to overhaul the tax code, cutting tax rates not only on corporate profits but also on individuals and families. However, despite the contents of the tax reforms that seem positive for the Greenback, analysts warned that there is still uncertainty over how quickly the tax reforms could be implemented.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.48% to $54.80 a barrel after it was fuelled by investors’ expectation toward rebalancing of the global oil market following ongoing OPEC and non-OPEC output cuts. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.20% to $1277.48 a troy ounce as President Donald Trump announced Jerome Powell to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
00:15 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | -0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Oct) | 50.6 | 50.8 | 51.2 |
| 17:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Oct) | 53.6 | 53.3 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) | -33K | 315K | – |
| 20:30 | USD –Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 4.2% | 4.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Oct) | 10.0K | 15.0K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Oct) | 6.2% | 6.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | 56.8 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 59.8 | 58.5 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 737 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.3245. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and increasing bearish momentum as shown by MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend losses toward the next support level at 1.3030.
Resistance level: 1.3245, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3030, 1.2960
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.1605. Formation of hidden positive divergence by MACD signal line suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1705.
Resistance level: 1.1705, 1.1745
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1475
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance lvel at 114.15. Death-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggests the pair to trade lower toward the support level at 113.80.
Resistance level: 114.15, 114.75
Support level: 113.80, 113.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher prior gaining its support at 54.25. Bullish engulfing candlestick and upward slope of MACD signal line suggest the commodity price to extend higher in longer-term toward the resistance level at 56.95.
Resistance level: 56.95, 61.15
Support level: 54.25, 51.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded in consolidation within ascending triangle. Absence of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram suggest to wait for breakout to occur for clearer indication of its price movement.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1291.00
Support level: 1273.15, 1268.95
021117 Daily Analysis
02 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Delayed tax bill and Powell pressured on the Greenback.
Dollar index slipped 0.15% from 3.5-month high against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies to 94.68, sagging ahead of delayed U.S. tax bill announcement and market expectation toward naming of Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair by President Trump. Following an embarrassing one-day postponement of the bill’s unveiling on Wednesday, U.S. lawmakers planned for a measure of $6 trillion tax cuts over 10 years but they did not draw out how to offset them in the future. In addition, nomination of current Fed Governor Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair is seen as less hawkish compared to other candidates which led to a slump in the Greenback. Overnight, Greenback reached to its highest level since July 11 at 114.45 following gains of 0.5% after it was being catalyzed by upbeat U.S. data and enhanced prospects for a rate hike by the Fed in December. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected but further increased expectations for a year-end rate hike by highlighting robust labor market and economic growth in the U.S. On the other hand, AUD/USD rose 0.46% to 0.7712 following better-than-expected trade balance figure and building approvals data. Australia’s trade balance widened to AUD 1,745 million in September versus the expected AUD 1,200 million, while building approvals for September rose 1.5% versus the expected 1.0% increase.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained stable at $54.25 per barrel after falling by 5 cents due to falling U.S commercial crude oil inventories despite rising output. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.47% to $1280.14 following Greenback’s retracement prior to delayed tax bill and announcement of the next Fed Chair.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
20:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
20:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
20:30 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
00:20 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
06:15 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | -1.0% | 1.5% |
| 08:30 | AUD – Trade Balance | 0.873B | 1.200B | 1.745B |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 60.5 | 60.5 | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) | -23K | -11K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) | 48.1 | 48.0 | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 0.25% | 0.50% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 233K | 235K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior its rebound from support level at 1.3250. Upward slope of MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3280.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3320
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3215
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was trade higher prior rebound from support level at 1.1605. Formation of hidden positive divergence by MACD signal line suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1705.
Resistance level: 1.1705, 1.1860
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1475
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior its failure to break above resistance level at 114.15. Formation of bearish engulfing candlestick and downward slope of MACD signal line suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower toward the support by 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 114.15, 114.75
Support level: 113.45, 113.05
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 53.95. Upward slope of MACD histogram suggest the commodity price to extend higher toward the resistance level at 54.85 if breakout above resistance level at 54.35 is successful.
Resistance level: 54.35, 54.85
Support level: 53.95, 53.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior breaking above resistance level at 1272.80 and resistance by 200-MA line. Golden-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggests gold price to extend higher if breakout above resistance level at 1280.00 is successful.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1291.00
Support level: 1272.80, 1269.00
011117 Daily Analysis
01 November 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback remains bullish while investors awaiting further clues.
Dollar index edged higher by 0.07% against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies, last quoted to 94.51 after it is buoyed by better-than-expected manufacturing growth and consumer confidence data. U.S. economy remains supported as consumer confidence rose to its highest level since 2008 at 125.9 in October from 119.8 in September versus the forecast reading of 121.0. In addition, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a leading indicator of the U.S. economy rose to 66.2 versus the expected 61.0. However, the gains of Greenback remain capped despite the two positive economic data as investors are waiting further clues on monetary policy from the Fed and President Donald Trump’s choice of candidate to head the Fed in February. On the other hand, GBP/USD rose 0.60% to 1.3281 amid growing investors’ expectation toward the Bank of England (BoE) to hike interest rates for the first time in more than a decade on Thursday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 27 cents, currently traded at $54.66 per barrel following bullish market sentiment fuelled by OPEC and Russia to hold back about 1.8 million barrels per day in oil production as a mean to tighten crude supplies. Otherwise, gold price dipped lower by 0.20% at $1269.54 a troy ounce as Greenback edges higher on stronger economic outlook.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
04:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
|
Time |
Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:45 | NZD – Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3) | -0.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 51.0 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| 17:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 55.9 | 56.0 | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) | 135K | 200K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | 60.3 | 60.2 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 60.8 | 59.5 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 0.856M | -2.578M | – |
| 02:00 | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.3210. The pair is currently testing the next resistance level at 1.3275. Successful closure above the said resistance level coupled with upward slope of MACD histogram suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the next target at 1.3430.
Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3430
Support level: 1.3210, 1.3065
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.1610. Absence of signal from both significant candlestick pattern and MACD histogram suggest to wait for breakout to occur to gain confirmation regarding the trend of the pair within short-term timeframe.
Resistance level: 1.1685, 1.1720
Support level: 1.1610, 1.1470
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 113.45. Bullish candlesticks arrangement and golden-cross as formed by MACD signal line suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level at 114.15.
Resistance level: 114.15, 114.75
Support level: 113.45, 113.10
CrudeOIL
Crude OIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 53.95. The commodity is currently testing the next resistance level at 54.65. Successful closure above the said resistance level would further indicates crude oil price to extend its momentum to trade higher toward the next resistance level at 57.20.
Resistance level: 54.65, 57.20
Support level: 53.95, 53.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1280.00. It is currently testing the support level at 1268.95. Successful closure below the said support level would further suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the next support level at 1262.20.
Resistance level: 1280.00, 1291.00
Support level: 1268.95, 1262.20
311017 Daily Analysis
31 October 2017 Daily Analysis
Inflation remained subdued, casts doubts over Fed.
Greenback pared some losses against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday after data showed subdued inflation performance ahead of Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The dollar index was down by 0.10% while last quoted at 94.35. Referring to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – Core PCE Price Index came in at only 1.3% for the year through September, well below Fed’s target of 2%. Recent continuous sluggishness on inflationary front has cast doubts over Fed’s ability to raise interest rates more rapidly due to ongoing pessimistic trend. However, losses on the greenback remains limited after consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-third of US economic activity rose 1% versus 0.8% last month. In the other region, EUR/USD received some selling pressure during Asian trading hours after shedding 0.03% to $1.1646. The single common currency remained in the spotlight of bearish market following geopolitical crisis in Spain over Catalonia’s independence referendum which lead Madrid to take direct control of the region.
In the commodities front, crude oil price inches lower by 0.18% to $54.05 per barrel as investors began to cash in their profits due to prior bullish advance. The commodity still remained supported following higher optimism over OPEC to extend their output cut agreement until end of next year. Otherwise, gold price gained by 0.04% to $1,276.56 amid recent weakness in the US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day EUR Germany – Reformation Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
03:30 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:00 | NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Oct) | 0.0 | – | -10.1 |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 52.4 | 52.0 | 51.6 |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | 0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 9.1% | 9.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Aug) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 119.8 | 121.0 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.591M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the resistance level of 1.3220. A failure to close above this level would suggest the pair to extend its losses, in tandem with the ongoing downward channel trend thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3260
Support level: 1.3115, 1.3020
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the 20-MA line (red) at the target of 1.1665. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggest the pair to retreats and advance towards the direction of support level at 1.1605.
Resistance level: 1.1655, 1.1720
Support level: 1.1605, 1.1530
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the bottom level of upward wedge while currently testing at the support level of 113.00. Both moving average line which continues to narrow downwards suggest an ongoing bearish bias. Thus, a close below the target of 113.00 would suggest the pair to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.30
Support level: 113.00, 112.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price were traded in an uptrend while currently consolidating near the resistance level of 54.20. Both MA line which continues to expand upwards suggest further upside bias and a break above the target of 54.20 would provide further confirmation.
Resistance level: 54.20, 54.75
Support level: 53.50, 52.60
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the top level. Retracement from the top level would suggest the gold price to be traded lower, in tandem with the current downward channel trend.
Resistance level: 1276.80, 1281.00
Support level: 1269.00, 1263.00