260819 Afternoon Session Analysis
26 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Next global recession incoming?
Dollar index which measures against a basket of six major currency pairs remain pressured and getting pummeled as the risk of global recession are increasing. U.S and China have escalated the trade tension with each side levy a series of tariffs on each other, causing trade deal hope to stray away further. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also didn’t provide any positive news to cheer on, stating that who did not announce any major stimulus measures to ease a worsening global economic outlook, and stated that Fed will take necessary countermeasures to support the U.S economy. President Trump also escalated his attacks against Fed, labelled Jerome Powell as an “enemy” following the lack of support from Fed to Trump’s plan, sending shockwaves to the market. Investors are now cautious as recent developments are signaling the risk of a global recession are imminent. On the other hand, euro also remain pressured despite dollar weakness. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) have stated that it is prepared to implement more preventive measure to support Euro economy, also stating that downside risks for growth had become “more pervasive”. Investors are now eyeing on further confirmation from German data to gauge further direction. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.02% to 97.50 while EUR/USD slips 0.04% to 1.1138.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slip 0.74% to $53.54 per barrel following intensified trade war. As trade tension between U.S and China escalate, market are now fear of incoming global recession which could affect the demand for the commodity, thus knocking out confidence in the global economy. Meanwhile, gold price skyrocketed 0.99% to $1541.85 a troy ounce at the time of writing following weak dollar amid trade war.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day GBP Summer Bank Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) | 95.7 | 95.1 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) | 1.0% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 97.90. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 97.10.
Resistance level: 97.90, 98.50
Support level: 97.10, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2245. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2390, 1.2585
Support level: 1.2245, 1.2095
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1100. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1245
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1020
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 105.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 105.55, 106.30
Support level: 104.70, 103.85
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6750. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6820
Support level: 0.6695, 0.6600
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6375. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6430, 0.6505
Support level: 0.6375, 0.6320
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3290. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3335.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3380
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 53.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 55.55.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45
Support level: 53.05, 50.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1535.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1555.75
Resistance level: 1555.75, 1575.00
Support level: 1535.00, 1515.55
260819 Morning Session Analysis
26 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar swoop amid escalation of US-Sino tensions.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies plunged amid heightened of trade tensions between US and China where both parties decided to impose higher tariff on each other. Last Friday, China levy retaliatory tariff on $75 billion worth of US imported goods, including autos. This move by China has mark the latest escalation of between two parties and leaving the deal even more unlikely, eventually angered the US President Donald Trump. In a moment of second, Donald Trump tweeted that they cannot stand it anymore while emphasizing US would be better if without China and announced to raise the tariff on $250 billion of China goods from previous 25% to 30%, via twitter. Moreover, Trump also announced to fight back against China’s tariff by ordering domestic companies in carrier services industry to stop all deliveries of Fentanyl from China. All Trump’s tweets seem to showed that he has given up on structuring a deal with China and urged the investors threw off the riskier assets such as dollar and flee into safe haven asset, Japanese Yen. During early Asian trading session, dollar index inched up 0.07% to 97.50 and the pair of USD/JPY tumbled 0.17% to 105.20.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.91% to $53.45 per barrel amid China imposed 10% of retaliatory tariff on US crude oil product, starting from 1th September 2019. Heightening of trade dispute increased the market concern over global demand of crude oil may dip. On the other hand, gold price skyrocketed 1.18% to $1544.50 amid escalation of trade war between China and US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day GBP Summer Bank Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (Aug) | 95.7 | 95.1 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul) | 1.0% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 97.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest index to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2300. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2220.
Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2370
Support level: 1.2220, 1.2165
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1150. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1115.
Resistance level: 1.1155, 1.1185
Support level: 1.1115, 1.1070
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level 105.10. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 105.60.
Resistance level: 105.60, 106.00
Support level: 105.10, 104.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6745. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level 0.6745.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6810
Support level: 0.6695, 0.6630
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6395. However, due to lack of momentum and signal from the MACD, a breakout or retracement from the resistance level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the upward trend line. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the upward trend line.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9780
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9655
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following while currently testing the resistance level 53.25. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 53.25, 54.05
Support level: 52.10, 50.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1549.65. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1549.65, 1565.50
Support level: 1526.60, 1508.25
230819 Afternoon Session Analysis
23 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Merkel comment lighted up soft Brexit possibility.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies rose following hawkish comment from President of Fed Bank of Philadelphia. In an interview with CNBC, Fed Harker commented that he is reluctant to see further rate cut since the economy remains resilient and does not need more stimulus as of now. This comment has dragged down the market expectation on further rate cut to 90% from 100% previously while minority of them shifted their view to probability of no rate cut during the September Fed meeting. Nonetheless, market are still keeping their eye on Jerome Powell Speaks as it will provide a clearer signal on interest rate decision. During Asian trading session, dollar index inched up 0.15% to $98.15. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD quoted down 0.13% to 1.2235 after hitting 3 weeks high supported by optimistic comment on Irish backstop issue from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Yesterday, Angela Merkel revealed that the Irish backstop may possibly be solved before the deadline of 31th October, signaling her willingness to compromise with Boris Johnson. This news has lifted up market’s expectation of a soft Brexit as U.K lawmakers may approve the draft without border issue.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $55.30 per barrel amid investors’ expectation of oil market facing near team supply deficit. Recently, OPEC+ oil cuts and the escalation of supply disruptions in Iran and Venezuela have eased the market concern over supply glut. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.26% to $1494.00 se troy ounce amid hawkish comment from Fed’s member which reduced the market risk preference.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jul) | 646K | 649K | – |
| 01.00 (24th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 770 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 98.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest index to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2220. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2370
Support level: 1.2220, 1.2165
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.1070. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1030.
Resistance level: 1.1070, 1.1115
Support level: 1.1030, 1.0960
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 106.70. However, due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing bottom-level of the channel at support level 0.6750. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6395. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3340.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9890.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 55.00. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 55.00, 54.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1494.05. However, due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the support level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1508.25, 1526.60
Support level: 1494.05, 1475.00
230819 Morning Session Analysis
23 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback sags on weak PMI data; Jackson Hole eyed.
Dollar index which measured against a basket of six major currency pairs have gave up some of its gains and slips after the release of disappointing PMI data. According to Markit Economics, business conditions in the U.S manufacturing sector have weaken which the index came in 49.9, lower than market expectation of 50.5. At the same time, Service PMI also fell to 50.9 compared to expectations of 52.8. The decline in the manufacturing and service sector have businesses and investors remain wary about the economic health of U.S economy. Besides that, another inversion the 10-year to 2-year Treasury yield curve this morning put further pressure into the greenback. As Jackson Hole Symposium gets underway, market are now focused and anxiously awaits for clarity from Fed Chair Powell and other central bank officials on US economic outlook and the future path of monetary policy decisions, which will likely be laid out over the coming days. At the time of writing, dollar index fell 0.03% to 97.98 at the time of writing.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price have edge lower 0.04% to $55.38 per barrel as of writing following ongoing demand concerns. Market remains worried as worldwide demand for petroleum-derived fuels to power trucks, trains, airplanes and ships has been imperiled by the trade war between the U.S. and China, signaling a slow demand which dragging down the commodity. On the other hand, gold price also fell 0.10% to $1496.51 at the time of writing as thin Fed appetite for a rate cut knocked some bullish wind out the yellow metal.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jul) | 646K | 649K | – |
| 01.00 (24th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 770 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 97.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 98.50.
Resistance level: 98.50, 99.20
Support level: 97.90, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2245. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the support level 1.2095.
Resistance level: 1.2245, 1.2390
Support level: 1.2095, 1.2015
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1100. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1015.
Resistance level: 1.1100, 1.1170
Support level: 1.1015, 1.0950
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 106.25. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 106.90.
Resistance level: 106.90, 107.80
Support level: 106.25, 105.45
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 0.6750. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6375. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.6430.
Resistance level: 0.6430, 0.6505
Support level: 0.6375, 0.6320
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3290. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3335.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3380
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9840. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9895
Support level: 0.9800, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 55.55. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 53.05.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45
Support level: 53.05, 50.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1495.60. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1515.55, 1535.00
Support level: 1495.60, 1475.50.
220819 Afternoon Session Analysis
22 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar steady after minute meeting release.
Greenback which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs was steady above 98.00 level following the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes. The Minutes showed that majority policymakers viewed the recent rate cut as just a mid-cycle adjustment towards risks of an economic slowdown and trade war concerns but not the beginning of a series of rate cuts. However, due to growing concerns of global economic recession, members of FOMC were able to agree that forward guidance and QE might not be enough to sustain the recession, and hinted that the Fed is still open to further rate cuts if necessary. On the other hand, US President Donald Trump had continuously bashed Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell, stating that talks with China are going well but the only problem faced by the US now is Fed policy action and its Chairman for not cutting rates aggressively. Market participants will now focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday where Jerome Powell is expected to provide clearer signal on their policy guidance while investors currently park their investment into safe-haven Yen. As of writing, dollar index ticked lower by 0.04% to 98.10 while pair of USD/JPY fell 0.16% to 106.43.
In the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.29% to $55.70 per barrel. Oil prices was earlier supported by bullish inventory data reported by the EIA. However, gains on the commodity were limited as economic slowdown continues to weigh on global demand. Investors will focus on further sentiment such as trade developments to further gauge oil price movement. Otherwise, gold price was traded lower by 0.04% to $1,501.70 a troy ounce while market participants waits for further signals from this Friday annual central banks meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 43.2 | 43.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 216K | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Services PMI (Aug) | 53.0 | 52.9 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 98.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest index to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2165. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2085.
Resistance level: 1.2165, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2085, 1.1980
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its top-level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the 60-MA line.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6750. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6395. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6330.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3275. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3340.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9840. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9780
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 55.90. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 55.00.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 55.00, 54.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded flat above the support level 1494.05. Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the support level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1508.25, 1526.60
Support level: 1494.05, 1475.00
220819 Morning Session Analysis
22 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling falters over no-deal Brexit.
Pound sterling retrace further from its previous high level after French government reportedly sees a no-deal Brexit as the baseline for 31st October deadline. In a report published by Reuters, top officials in French President Emmanuel Macron’s office commented that a no-deal Brexit will likely be the fallout from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s demand for the EU to drop the Irish backstop. Last Tuesday, Johnson demanded the backstop to be removed from previously negotiated Brexit deal. A backstop is an insurance policy to keep Irish border open after UK leaves the European Union. However, as investors has priced in for a higher chance of a no-deal Brexit in October, losses experienced by pound sterling was rather limited. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2129 this morning. On the other hand, US dollar advanced further upwards albeit more rate cuts hinted in the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Most policymakers viewed the recent rate cut as a part of mid-cycle adjustment while more rate cut in the future may be initiated in order to provide support to the economy. The dollar index rose 0.07% to 98.13.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.23% to $56.05 per barrel. Oil futures remained supported after Energy Information Administration reported a draw of -2.7 million barrels of oil stocks last week, slightly higher than forecast of -1.9 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat at $1,502.54 a troy ounce while market participants waits for further signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 43.2 | 43.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 216K | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Services PMI (Aug) | 53.0 | 52.9 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following a retrace from prior high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 98.30, 98.65
Support level: 97.95, 97.80
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from 1.2115. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.2140.
Resistance level: 1.2140, 1.2170
Support level: 1.2115, 1.2090
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to advance further up in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1170
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1025
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 106.75, 107.25
Support level: 105.60, 105.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of descending channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down in the mid-term.
Resistance level: 0.6400, 0.6420
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6370
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3255
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.9820. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.9820.
Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9775, 0.9700
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 56.40, 57.30
Support level: 55.55, 54.45
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1509.00, 1523.00
Support level: 1495.50, 1483.50
210819 Afternoon Session Analysis
21 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Slow FX market ahead of central banks meeting.
Dollar index which measures its value against a basket of six major currency pairs rebounds by 0.04% to 98.05 while market awaits further signal during the annual Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday. Prior to the world central banks meeting, market participants will also look at upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes on late Wednesday to obtain insights of Fed’s latest monetary policy stance. Recent rebound seen from US Treasury yield signaled investors that global policymakers are ready to provide further stimulus to support global economic downturn while heightening expectations for further Fed rate cut by the end of this year. However, comments from Fed’s member Rosengren stated that although economies around the world are weakening, US is not obligated to further ease their monetary policy unless US economy itself is pressured by signs of recession. Mixed signals in the market caused investors’ reluctance to enter the market while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech on Friday will be the main driver for market’s movement. Elsewhere, pair of EUR/USD was traded lower by 0.05% to 1.1092 as of writing. The single currency was little pressured by the resignation of Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte as some argued that the impact will not affect euro’s movement in the long-run.
In the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.42% to $56.35 per barrel despite a buildup in US crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). As the API data is classified as unofficial for overall US inventory level, investors will wait for tonight’s Crude Oil Inventories data to further gauge oil’s movement. On the other hand, gold price fell by 0.32% to $1,502.35 a troy ounce due to dollar’s rebound.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (22nd) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.0% | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jul) | 5.27M | 5.39M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.580M | -1.889M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a rebound from 98.00. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.2170. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2085.
Resistance level: 1.2170, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2085, 1.2015
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20 moving average lien (Red). MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 106.60. MACD which forms bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 106.60.
Resistance level: 106.60, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing the top level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the channel’s top level.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6395. MACD which forms diminishing bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 0.6465.
Resistance level: 0.6465, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6330
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the 20 moving average line (Red).
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound from 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9840.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9780, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the downward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the downward trend line.
Resistance level: 56.80, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1507.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggests its price to extend its losses toward the support level at 1490.00.
Resistance level: 1507.10, 1526.60
Support level: 1490.00, 1477.20
210819 Morning Session Analysis
21 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling rebounds, greenback retraces.
Pound sterling rose sharply on yesterday following higher hopes of EU’s concession on Irish backstop. Responding to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s letter, EU said that they regret that UK did not provide any concrete proposals for alternative arrangements to replace Irish backstop while reiterating that the Brexit Agreement will not be reopened for negotiations. Subsequently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel commented that the backstop is a political declaration of future ties rather, reviving hopes that EU could make concession in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit. However, gains on the sterling was short-lived after Merkel emphasized that the agreement will not be renegotiated. For the time being, investors would continue to monitor Brexit developments in between UK and EU in order to gauge the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit by 31st October 2019. In a quiet economic calendar on yesterday, US dollar begins to stage a retrace from its prior yearly high as investors shifts their focus towards other assets in the market. Limelight will be placed upon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech this Friday which could provide more info on future policy guidance as well as comments with regards to US economic progression. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.03% to 1.2163 while the dollar index slumped 0.20% to 97.97.
In the commodities section, crude oil price rose 0.07% to $56.12 per barrel. Oil futures were well in bid as traders speculate for another week of crude storage drawdown in the US. As such, the official inventories data from Energy Information Administration later tonight would provide significant momentum to the crude oil price. On the other hand, gold price slipped 0.05% to $1,506.73 a troy ounce due to profit seeking after rising more than $14 on yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (22nd) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.0% | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jul) | 5.27M | 5.39M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.580M | -1.889M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following a rebound from 97.95. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 98.30, 98.65
Support level: 97.95, 97.80
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.2170. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2170, 1.2205
Support level: 1.2140, 1.2090
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1170
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1025
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of sideways channel. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.25
Support level: 105.60, 105.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6400.
Resistance level: 0.6420, 0.6440
Support level: 0.6400, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.3335. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a rebound from 0.9775. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9775, 0.9700
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggests its price to extend its gains after breaking the top level.
Resistance level: 57.30, 58.70
Support level: 55.55, 54.45
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following a retrace from 1509.00. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1509.00, 1523.00
Support level: 1494.50, 1483.50
200819 Afternoon Session Analysis
20 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
RBA meeting minutes dominate Aussie.
Aussie dollar was traded higher by the market participants following the release of upbeat RBA meeting minutes of its 7th August monetary policy meeting. The central bank has met the worldwide market expectation in keeping its interest rate unchanged at 1.00% while an extension of low interest rate period can be highly expected as RBA is still remained open toward further rate cut if needed. Despite escalation of trade war between US and China and global economy recession risks continue to haunt the Australia’s economy development, housing sector managed to turnaround from downside risks and stronger labor market scented the market sentiment of Aussie dollar while members are now seeing second quarter of Australia economy will be firmer. At the same time, Federal Reserve’s member Rosengren’s comment further extends the gains of AUD/USD as he revealed that they might take preventive measures such as quantitative easing if US economy still trapped by recession in next quarter. This comment had lifted up the market expectation of 0.25% rate cut from Fed to 96.2% from previous week 82.3%, according to Fed Rate Monitor Tool. During Asian trading session, AUD/USD spiked up 0.26% to 0.6780 while dollar index inched down 0.03% to $98.15.
As for commodities market, crude oil price quoted up 0.07% to $56.15 per barrel amid Yemeni separatists attack on Saudi oilfield dragged up the market expectation of supply disruption in near term. Moreover, gold price ticked higher 0.06% to $1496.50 a troy ounce amid dollar’s weakening.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 04:30
(21st) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.190M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from its top-level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its top-level. However, due to lack of momentum and signal from the MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.2165, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2085, 1.1980
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1070. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1115.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 106.70. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 106.00.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the top-level of its downward channel. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the downward channel.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its support level 0.6395. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6465.
Resistance level: 0.6465, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6330
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3340. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3275.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from its top-level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9780.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9780, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 56.80, 57.85
Support level: 55.90, 54.65
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1490.00. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1490.00.
Resistance level: 1507.10, 1526.60
Support level: 1490.00, 1477.20
200819 Morning Session Analysis
20 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback soars over global stimulus.
US dollar extended its gains to a fresh yearly high as US Treasury yields rebounds from recent low with hopes that major economics in the world would take further action in order to prevent possible recession in the near future. Prior, several central banks around the world has initiated extensive rate cuts amid growing uncertainties in the market due to ongoing US-Sino trade war and diminishing growth momentum. In the US, Federal Reserve cut its interest rates by 25 basis points last month as an “insurance” due to recent sluggishness in its economic progression. For the week ahead, investors would scrutinize the speech bound to be delivered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during Jackson Hole symposium this Friday that may contain further signals with regards to future economic policy guidance. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.23% to 98.20 during Asian trading session. In the UK, pair of GBP/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.2129. Sterling retraces from its recent high after EU firmly reassure that Brexit withdrawal agreement will not be open for renegotiation, sparking higher possibility for a hard-Brexit during 31st October deadline.
As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.09% to $56.12 per barrel. On yesterday, crude oil received higher demand in the market over reports of a new drone attach on a Saudi oilfield. Otherwise, gold price slumped 0.03% to $1,495.55 a troy ounce due to recent rebound in greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Jul) | -0.4% | 0.0% | – |
| 04:30
(21st) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.190M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 98.30, 98.65
Support level: 97.80, 97.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a triangle formation. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2140, 1.2170
Support level: 1.2090, 1.2050
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3070. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1170
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1025
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 106.80. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.25
Support level: 105.60, 105.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at 0.6750. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at 0.6400. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 0.6400.
Resistance level: 0.6420, 0.6440
Support level: 0.6400, 0.6370
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from 1.3335. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from 0.9820. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9790, 0.9745
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 55.55.
Resistance level: 57.30, 58.70
Support level: 55.55, 54.45
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1494.50. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1509.00, 1523.00
Support level: 1494.50, 1483.50
190819 Afternoon Session Analysis
19 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Trade tensions further pressure FX market.
Last week, market cheered on positive developments in trade talks after US President Donald Trump delayed additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. After a phone call conducted between US and China’s trade representatives last week, President Trump decided to delay the tariff in hope to achieve a deal with China as soon as possible. However, recent statements from Trump twitter accused Huawei of being a national security threat and that the US may not be open to doing business with the tech company. Trump also stated that he is not ready to make a deal with China which turned the tables for a possible trade deal anytime soon. With mixed signals lingering the trade war in the market, investors are waiting for further top-level negotiations next month to further gauge trade developments. Since the commencement of trade war, dollar and other safe-haven assets such as gold and Japanese yen had received higher demand with US favoring from the tariff imposed foreign goods. On the other hand, foreign countries’ economy which are suffering from tariff imposed by the US such as China and their major trading partners Australia and New Zealand had caused investors to largely sell-off their currency as they wait for further improvement in sentiment before investing back into those countries. As of writing, dollar index ticked higher by 0.06% to 98.01 while pair of USD/JPY and AUD/USD was down by 0.02% to 106.32 and 0.04% to 0.6775 respectively.
In the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.47% to $55.32 per barrel following escalating Middle East tensions. According to Reuters, Yemen’s Houthi group attacked a Saudi drone across an oilfield in eastern Saudi Arabia which caused a fire at a gas plant. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.28% to $1,509.10 a troy ounce due stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 1.1% | 1.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2165. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 1.2085.
Resistance level: 1.2165, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2085, 1.1980
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1115. MACD which bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at106.00. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the support level at 106.00.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the downward channel’s top level. Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further signal appeared such as breakout above or a retracement before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6465. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6395.
Resistance level: 0.6465, 0.6555
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6330
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3275. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1.3275.
Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3340
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be trade lower in short term toward the support level at 0.9780.
Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9780, 0.9755
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 54.65. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 54.65, 53.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1507.10. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1507.10.
Resistance level: 1525.90, 1548.05
Support level: 1507.10, 1490.00
190819 Morning Session Analysis
19 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
US economy loses its steam?
Greenback was traded flat on Monday following growing fears of recession after US Treasury Yield curve inverted while coupled with bearish data from last Friday. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.02% to 98.00. Last Friday, greenback failed to extend its gains further following diminishing momentum with regards to consumer sentiment. According to University of Michigan, its consumer sentiment index fell to 92.1 for the month of August, its lowest level since January 2019. Diminishing consumer sentiment came following yield curve inversion which historically predicted possible recession in the near future. Likewise, overall sentiment in the market remains bleak as ongoing trade war in between US and China sees no end as US President Donald Trump seemingly signaled that he is “not ready to reach a consensus”. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole gathering later this week whereby Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver its speech this Friday. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.07% to 1.2157. Pound sterling managed to extend its rebound following bullish employment data that was released during last Thursday.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.46% to $55.14 per barrel. Oil prices recoup its losses after OPEC reported a sharp fall in crude oil output for the month of July which may help to ease global supply glut. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.23% to $1,510.00 a troy ounce due to increasing demand for risky assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jul) | 1.1% | 1.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower as technical correction.
Resistance level: 98.30, 99.00
Support level: 97.80, 97.10
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2140. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2180.
Resistance level: 1.2180, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2140, 1.2090
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded flat near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1170
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1025
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 106.50. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target at 106.50.
Resistance level: 106.50, 107.25
Support level: 105.60, 105.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.6420. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6440, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6420, 0.6400
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below 1.3290. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3255.
Resistance level: 1.3290, 1.3305
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 0.9790. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.9790.
Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9790, 0.9745
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher, towards the direction of 55.55.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.30
Support level: 54.45, 53.00
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 1509.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after breaking the target at 1509.00.
Resistance level: 1523.00, 1533.00
Support level: 1509.00, 1495.00
160819 Afternoon Session Analysis
16 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
NZD slumps as businesses dwindle.
New Zealand dollar received some bearish pressure following the release of economic data from the region this morning. For the month of July, Business NZ Purchasing Manager Index slumped into contraction region with a reading of 48.2, missing economists’ forecast for a rise to 51.8. The data sent worrisome signals across the market as it came in line with global economic outlook which is skewed towards bearish. The release of the report came in after Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Governor Adrian Orr emphasized that they would respond to low inflationary pressure by lowering their interest rates further. Due to increasing expectation that the central bank would ease their monetary policy further, investors have shifted their portfolio into safe-haven assets such as Japanese Yen. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD slumped 0.24% to 0.6431. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD was traded flat around 1.2086. The demand for pound sterling remains tepid given the risk that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson may deliver a hard Brexit on 31st October 2019 without any transitional trade agreement with European Union, potentially sparking economic turmoil in the short-term.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.62% to $55.00 per barrel. Oil prices received some bullish support after strong economic data from the US on yesterday helped to ease recession worries in the global market. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.08% to $1,522.03 a troy ounce following a rebound in the US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jul) | 1.232M | 1.270M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | 98.4 | 97.2 | – |
| 1:00
(17th) |
USD – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 764 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 97.90. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 98.50.
Resistance level: 98.50, 99.20
Support level: 97.90, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2100. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1955.
Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2245
Support level: 1.1955, 1.1775
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1100. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend it losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1015
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 106.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 105.45.
Resistance level: 106.25, 106.90
Support level: 105.45, 104.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound form the support level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signals suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.6825.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6430. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.6505.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585
Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3335. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3380
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.9800. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9800.
Resistance level: 0.9800, 0.9840
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9705
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 55.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45
Support level: 53.05, 50.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1515.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1535.00, 1555.75
Support level: 1515.55, 1495.60
160819 Morning Session Analysis
16 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback revived as positive economic data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies rose amid release of a batch of upbeat economic data from US region tempered the market concern over US economy recession risk. According to the Census Bureau, US Core Retail Sales data came in at 1.0%, beating the economist forecast of 0.4% only while it indicating that the US economy is still remain favorable as consumer spending had strengthen. Besides, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index also further support the dollar index against other currencies where it showed a reading of 16.8 versus economist forecast of 10.0. This robust data indicates that business conditions in US has improved and seemingly local companies did not affected much by the heightening trade tensions between US and China. Besides, series of ‘healthy’ economic data throughout this entire week so far has lowered down the investor expectation regarding to the possibility of 0.25% rate cut in September from 75.4% to 73.1%. During early Asian trading session, dollar index ticked up 0.01% to 97.95. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD quoted up 0.02% to 1.1105 after plunging for more than 600 basis point following dovish statement from ECB’s committee member Olli Rehn. According to an interview conducted by Wall Street Journal, ECB will announced a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should exceed the expectation of investors, revealed by ECB’s member. Thus, a further rate cut and more substantial bond purchases can be expected to implement by ECB in order to support the Eurozone economy slowing.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.20% to $54.80 per barrel despite China reported disappointing data for July. Yesterday China released surprise drop in industrial output growth data to a more than 17 year low due to escalation of trade war. On the other hand, gold price ticked up by 0.18% to $1525.95 a troy ounce amid market sentiment remain negative toward riskier asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jul) | 1.232M | 1.270M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | 98.4 | 97.2 | – |
| 1:00
(17th) |
USD – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 764 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2155.
Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2090, 1.1980
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1115. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 106.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level at 106.00.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of downward channel. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6640. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6395.
Resistance level: 0.6440, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6330
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3310. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3385.
Resistance level: 1.3385, 1.3450
Support level: 1.3310, 1.3275
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9755. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9790.
Resistance level: 0.9790, 0.9840
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9705
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 54.65. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 54.65, 53.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1507.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1532.05.
Resistance level: 1532.05, 1548.05
Support level: 1507.10, 1490.00
150819 Afternoon Session Analysis
15 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Recession coming soon?
Japanese yen held onto its gains during Asian trading session following fears of possible recession in the near future. Market sentiment remains fragile following disappointing economic data from China and Germany which reveals the extent of damage from US-China trade war. Although Washington has recently announced to delay the introduction of tariffs on certain category of items until mid-December, investors remains skeptical over US ability to reach a substantial trade agreement with the China in the future. Likewise, US 2-year treasury yields rose above 10-year US treasury yield for the first time since 2007, signaling a strong recession warning ahead. The inversion of yield curve shows that investors are expecting a diminishing economic growth ahead as long-term bond yields depreciates below short-term bond yields. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY ticks down 0.03% to 105.95. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.44% to 0.6776. Australian dollar received some bullish buyback after its Employment Change data for the month of July came in at 41.4K, exceeding economists’ forecast of only 14.0K. The data shows that hiring momentum in the Australia remains resilient although regional inflation remains tepid.
For the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.05% to $54.86 per barrel. Oil prices extended its losses over the backdrop of increasing recession fears as well as rising inventories in the United States. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.23% to $1,520.36 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 1.0% | -0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 209K | 214K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) | 21.8 | 10.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 97.90. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 97.10.
Resistance level: 97.90, 98.50
Support level: 97.10, 96.30
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2100. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1955.
Resistance level: 1.2100, 1.2245
Support level: 1.1955, 1.1775
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1170. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1015
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 106.25. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 105.45.
Resistance level: 106.25, 106.90
Support level: 105.45, 104.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6760. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6825.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6760, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6430. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6505.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6585
Support level: 0.6430, 0.6375
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3290.
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3380
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3230
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9705.
Resistance level: 0.9755, 0.9800
Support level: 0.9705, 0.9635
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 55.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 53.05.
Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45
Support level: 53.05, 50.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1515.55. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1535.00.
Resistance level: 1535.00, 1555.00
Support level: 1515.55, 1495.60