Daily Analysis

20 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback falls as rate cut approaches.

Greenback tumbled to two-weeks low against other major currencies as Federal Reserve continues to adopt dovish-tilted stance. As widely expected, Fed concluded its two-day meeting by keeping their interest rate unchanged within the range of 2.25% – 2.50%. According to their statement, Fed noted that uncertainties continues to increase when referring to US economic outlook. In addition, they also reiterate to “act as appropriate” in order to sustain economic expansion and strong labor market while keeping inflation near their target. However, Fed deleted their statement that they would be “patient” with regards to future policy adjustments. Such omission has hiked up market speculation for a rate cut as soon as July. During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there is not much of support to cut rates as of now due to lack of signal with regards to maximum employment capacity. His statement has eased some losses upon the greenback. Nevertheless, Powell indicated that a depreciation in inflation would boost the factor for rate cuts in the future while ongoing trade news will remain as the important driver of sentiment for the central bank. For the time being, market participants will continue to monitor future economic releases from the United States to gauge future rate hike timing and probability. As of writing, the dollar index recorded a loss of 0.44% to 96.68.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $54.27 per barrel. Oil futures remains in demand after Energy Information Administration recorded a draw in last week’s oil inventories by -3.11 million barrels, slightly higher than forecast of -1.08 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price rose more by 0.05% to $1,359.71 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                 JPY                        BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                  JPY                        BoJ Press Conference

19:00                     GBP                         BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

04:00 (21^st)           GBP                         BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to advance further down after a successful breakout occur.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.35, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.2745.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1275

Support level: 1.1210, 1.1150

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the target of 108.20. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 107.95.

Resistance level: 108.20, 108.50

Support level: 107.95, 107.70

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior close above 0.6880. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6900.

Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930

Support level: 0.6880, 0.6850

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6555. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6555.

Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3255.

Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3255, 1.3220

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace near 0.9945. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.9915.

Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9890

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above 54.45. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 57.30.

Resistance level: 57.30, 60.85

Support level: 54.45, 53.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1340.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1374.10.

Resistance level: 1374.10, 1390.00

Support level: 1340.00, 1308.00

19 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro remained stagnant following ECB dovish notes. 

Euro was traded flat after European Central Bank (ECB) showed its dovish stance towards future economy outlook. On yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi commented that they will likely to ease policy again where further rate cut and more asset purchases can be expected if inflation still below its target level. For the time being, Eurozone current inflation rate is at 1.2% and central bank are still trying to stimulate the economy as growth prospects are under pressure from uncertainty about the issue such as US China trade dispute and Brexit. Similarly, recent report shows that German ZEW economic sentiment data came in -21.1, unexpectedly lower than the economic forecast of -5.7 while it indicated that investors are now even more pessimistic toward the EU economy outlook as geopolitical tensions continues to haunt the Euro market. As of writing, dollar index edged up 0.02% to 97.65 while the pair of EUR/USD quoted down 0.02% to 1.1190.

As for commodities market, crude oil price inched down by 0.07% to $54.00 per barrel during Asian trading session. In short a while ago, a foreign oil company in Iraq’s Basra hit by a rocket and injured two Iraqi workers. The attack was not identified yet but has created uncertainty toward the oil supply. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.03% to $1346.00 a troy ounce following rise in market risk appetite.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

02:00 (20^th)          USD                                        FOMC Economic Projections

02:00                     USD                                        FOMC Statement

02:30                     USD                                        FOMC Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.60.

Resistance level: 97.60, 97.95
Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2555. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2615, 1.2690
Support level: 1.2555, 1.2490

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1180. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded in a narrowing triangle while currently testing near the bottom-level of the triangle. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the bottom level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 108.45, 109.15
Support level: 107.85, 107.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.6900 as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6825

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6540. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 20-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6580
Support level: 0.6500, 0.6470

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3370. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3370, 1.3305

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.9985. However, due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.0025 or below the support level 0.9985 is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0070
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 54.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 54.50, 55.85
Support level: 52.65, 50.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1355.00. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest gold to extend its losses towards the support level 1341.15.

Resistance level: 1355.00, 1370.00
Support level: 1341.15, 1321.15

19 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Trump criticizes ECB’s Draghi.

US dollar was traded flat against other major currencies on yesterday following mixed signals in the market. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump criticized ECB President Mario Draghi whom had hinted for more stimulus and rate cuts if the economy in Eurozone does not improve. Trump stated that such measures would lead the greenback to an uncompetitive position as euro depreciates further. Prior, Trump has been urging US Federal Reserve to cut their interest rates which has risen from 0% to 2.50% for the past three years. For the time being, Fed two-day meeting conclusion will be the main highlight for the week as investors ponder upon the central bank’s forward guidance with regards to monetary policy. In terms of economy, latest report on Building Permits shows increased by only 1.294 million, lower than economist forecast of 1.296 million for the month of May. Building Permits begins to show stagnation for the past few months which may indicate possible depreciation in demand for property. As of writing, the dollar index was traded flat at around 97.10 against a basket of six major currencies.

As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.11% to $54.01 per barrel. On yesterday, oil prices rebound from its prior low level after US President Donald Trump announced that he will resume trade talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during next week’s G-20 summit. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat at around $1,346.55 a troy ounce as market participants waits for further signal in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:00                     EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

02:00 (20^th)          USD                          FOMC Economic Projections

02:00                     USD                        FOMC Statement

02:30                     USD                       FOMC Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways formation. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses after closing below 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.20, 97.50

Support level: 97.05, 96.80

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.2515. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2745

Support level: 1.2515, 1.2425

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1210, 1.1275

Support level: 1.1150, 1.1110

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 108.70.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15

Support level: 108.50, 108.20

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6880. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6880.

Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6900

Support level: 0.6850, 0.6830

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.6485. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6555.

Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below 1.3375. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3340.

Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3340, 1.3315

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior close above 1.0000. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in mid-term, towards the direction of 1.0040.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0130

Support level: 1.0000, 0.9975

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level of 54.45. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up after closing above 54.45.

Resistance level: 54.45, 57.30

Support level: 53.00, 51.60

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its price to advance lower after closing below 1345.00.

Resistance level: 1350.00, 1355.00

Support level: 1345.00, 1338.00

18 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar pressured ahead of Fed interest rate decision.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs remained pressured while investors highly expect a dovish FOMC statement this week. Recent slump in US inflationary data seen from its’ PPI and Core CPI had heightened investors’ expectation for future rate cut, with the Fed Rate Monitor Tool showing 98.3% chance of rate cut by December’s Fed meeting. Recent statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed will monitor its interest rate in accordance to the unexpected escalation in US-China trade war, revoking its previous ‘wait and see’ approach. However, recent dovish signals from riskier markets such as Australia and Euro Zone had caused investors to place their investments in stronger dollar, supported by escalated tariffs from the global trade war, limiting dollar losses. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.11% to 96.92. In other news, pair of AUD/USD fell by 0.23% to 0.6835 amid dovish meeting minutes by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday. According to RBA, labor market developments continue to act as a key indicator for their monetary policy decisions. Recent hike in Australia’s unemployment rate had signaled further monetary policy easing, especially during its July meeting. Besides that, RBA also commented that further policy easing will be ‘more likely than not’, causing investors to flee from Aussie market.

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciated by 0.03% to $52.08 per barrel. Sentiment for oil market remains cloudy as ongoing trade tensions further deteriorating the business growth in US and China. Investors are now waiting for further signals from OPEC meeting as well as G20 summit to gauge future oil price movements. Otherwise, gold price ticked higher by 0.12% to $1,341.05 a troy ounce amid weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

22:00                     GBP                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

22:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 96.90. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest index to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 96.90.

Resistance level: 97.35, 97.60

Support level: 96.90, 96.70

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2520. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggests the pair to be extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2520.

Resistance level: 1.2555, 1.2610

Support level: 1.2520, 1.2490

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1280

Support level: 1.1210, 1.1170

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 108.40. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 107.85.

Resistance level: 108.40, 108.80

Support level: 107.85, 107.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6825. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6825.

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6825, 0.6765

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6500. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the resistance level at 0.6500.

Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6540

Support level: 0.6470, 0.6435

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3420. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3390.

Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3450

Support level: 1.3390, 1.3345

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0005. MACD which display bearish signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9960.

Resistance level: 1.0005, 1.0050

Support level: 0.9960, 0.9925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 53.10. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 51.50.

Resistance level: 53.10, 54.30

Support level: 51.50, 50.25

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1342.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1342.15.

Resistance level: 1342.15, 1355.10

Support level: 1329.50, 1319.65

18 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback stabilized despite dismal data.

US dollar seesawed against other major currencies on Monday after manufacturing activity in the New York region fell to a new low in the month of June. According to New York Federal Reserve, its manufacturing index fell to -8.6, its lowest level in two-and-a-half years. Such reading while coupled with weak inflation and rising sluggishness within the labor market has cemented the case for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this year. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability for a rate cut during July’s meeting has risen up to 84.5%. However, as investor’s has currently priced in the rate hike factor into greenback, losses on the currency remains limited. Elsewhere, pound sterling slumped to six months low against the US dollar on yesterday following market risk aversion from the UK market. Recent reports show that Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson remains as the leading candidate to become Britain’s next Prime Minister, heightening possibility of a no-deal Brexit ahead. As of writing, dollar index ticked down 0.03% to 97.00 while pair of GBP/USD rebounds by 0.06% to 1.2540.

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.08% to $51.95 per barrel. On yesterday, oil price received some bearish pressure after OPEC members failed to reach consensus on their next meeting date which may bring more uncertainty upon the fate of production cut agreement. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat around $1,339.67 a troy ounce as traders wait for further market signals.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

22:00                     GBP                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

22:00                     EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 97.05. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.80, 96.35

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.2630. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.2515.

Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2745

Support level: 1.2515, 1.2425

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1335

Support level: 1.1220, 1.1150

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from 108.70. MACD which illustrate bearish signals suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below the support of 108.50.

Resistance level: 108.75, 109.15

Support level: 108.50, 108.20

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.6850. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6850.

Resistance level: 0.7020, 0.7210

Support level: 0.6850, 0.6700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 0.6485. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction

Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 1.3420. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3445

Support level: 1.3375, 1.3340

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040

Support level: 0.9975, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance near 53.00. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term, towards 51.60.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. Although MACD has formed a bullish signal, a break above the resistance of 1340.00 is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1340.00, 1345.00

Support level: 1332.00, 1321.00

17 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback ‘stunned’, investor await for Fed interest rate decision.

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies hovered around 97.00 level amid investor are eyes on Fed interest rate decision on coming Thursday. Based on the recent economies data, US Consumer Price Index data which act as a crucial inflation indicator showed that US economy is currently experiencing low inflationary pressure. Nonetheless, majority of market participants expecting that Fed will remain their cash rate at current level despite indication of poor economy performance. In the meantime, Fed is expected to stimulate the US economy after Japan G20 summit where President Donald Trump is expected to meet China President Xi Jinping whereby failure to achieve a trade deal will likely to further deteriorates the US economy. As of writing, Dollar index inched down 0.08% to 97.50. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD quoted up 0.03% to 1.2590 as Brexit impasses continues to dominate the direction of Pound. Earlier last week, Boris Johnson has managed to win over most of the parliamentary vote during the UK leadership contest. Investor are now remain focus on second ballot of UK leadership contest which will be held on 18^th June.

As of commodities market, crude oil price edged up 0.27% to $52.85 per barrel amid investors speculate that geopolitical tensions between US and Iran will eventually disrupt the global crude oil supply. Besides, gold price inched down 0.07% to $1340.55 a troy ounce amid dollar’s rebound.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:00 (18^th)          EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 97.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest index to extend its losses towards the support level 96.35.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.35, 95.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2615, 1.2690

Support level: 1.2555, 1.2490

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1120

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded in a narrowing triangle while currently testing near the top-level of the triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the top-level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 109.15, 109.70

Support level: 108.45, 107.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6860. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6900.

Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930

Support level: 0.6860, 0.6825

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.6500. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.6540.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6580

Support level: 0.6500, 0.6470

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.3380. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1.3380.

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3490

Support level: 1.3380, 1.3305

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near resistance level 0.9985. MACD which display bullish signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9985, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9940, 0.9905

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above previous resistance level at 52.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 60-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 54.50, 55.85

Support level: 52.65, 50.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1341.15. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal and the formation of death cross suggest gold to retrace from the resistance level as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 1341.15, 1355.00

Support level: 1321.50, 1302.50

17 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

The reality of rate cut.

US dollar was traded mixed last Friday due to mixed signals delivered by its economic data. According to US Census Bureau, Core Retail Sales for the month of May came in as expected with 0.5%, portraying a solid consumer spending although inflationary pressure eases slightly. However, University of Michigan published a separate report with regards to Consumer Sentiment shows continuous depreciation from its prior high levels. For the month of Jun, Consumer Sentiment depreciates from 100.0 to 97.9, signaling deteriorating expectation towards US future economic growth which may dampen consumer spending. Such signal has further cemented the course for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve throughout the year of 2019. For the time being, investors will place their attention upon Fed monetary policy conclusion which will be delivered this coming Thursday. On the other hand, Australian dollar continues to hover near six-months low as ongoing trade dispute in between US and China deteriorates trader’s confidence towards its economy. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.07% to 96.96 while AUD/USD appreciates slightly by 0.05% to 0.6875.

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.29% to $52.62 per barrel. Oil prices received some support after US Baker Hughes shows depreciation in rig counts from 789 to 788 that may reduce oil supply for short-term. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,341.92 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:00 (18^th)          EUR                         ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 97.05. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.35, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2630, 1.2745

Support level: 1.2515, 1.2425

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1275

Support level: 1.1150, 1.1110

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior closure above 108.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15

Support level: 108.50, 108.20

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending channel formation. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6850.

Resistance level: 0.7020, 0.7210

Support level: 0.6850, 0.6700

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6485. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 1.3420. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3420, 1.3445

Support level: 1.3375, 1.3340

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0040

Support level: 0.9975, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 53.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up after closing above 53.00.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1340.00, 1355.00

Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00

14 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar held steady as market remain focus on Fed meeting.

Dollar index which measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs have remain steady in early Asia session as market awaiting for further cues on possible rate cut . Following recent reports and rising trade tensions which signaled a declining growth in U.S economy and hiring, market have anticipated that at least there will be two rate cuts by the end of this year. The expectations of maintain rate have only reached 11.3%, compared to previous 74.1% a month ago. Investors will turn their attention on U.S retail sales data for further insights on U.S economy. Dollar index rose 0.02% to 96.95 as of writing. Meanwhile, NZD/USD plummets 0.50% to 0.6531 as of writing following weak manufacturing data. According to Bank of New Zealand Business NZ, manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in more than six years in May with the reading of only 50.2 against the forecasted reading 54.4. The data is likely to reinforce expectations of a dovish RBNZ on the next meeting which have dragged the Kiwi further down.

As for commodities market, crude oil price have fell 0.15% to $52.12 per barrel as of writing as market closed profits on sharp gains boosted by oil tanker attacks. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated as Washington blames Iran for the attack, however Iran have denied the allegation. With the ongoing tension rising, market remains concerned and continue to focus their attention on ongoing developments to determine further prospect. On the other hand, gold price skyrocketed 0.38% to $1347.12 at the time of writing following global uncertainty risk which boosted the demand for safe-haven asset.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

20:55                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 97.00. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 96.35.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.25

Support level: 96.45, 96.05

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat after retracing from the resistance level 1.2690. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.2615.

Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2765

Support level: 1.2615, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.1305 as a technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1305, 1.1360

Support level: 1.1240, 1.1180

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remained traded in a narrowing triangle while currently testing the bottom level of the triangle. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the bottom level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 108.45, 109.15

Support level: 107.85, 107.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6900. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6970

Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 0.6540. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6510.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6580

Support level: 0.6510, 0.6470

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3305. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3380.

Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3435

Support level: 1.3305, 1.3255

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9940. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 52.65. MACD which display bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 52.65, 54.50

Support level: 50.50, 49.70

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was trade higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1341.15. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1358.00.

Resistance level: 1358.00, 1370.00

Support level: 1341.15, 1321.50

14 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

US rate cut by end of July?

Greenback extended its gains against other major currencies following higher expectation towards Federal Reserve to initiate an interest rate cut in the near-term. Recent economic releases from the United States portrays a possible slowdown in momentum as labor market and inflation pressure begins to diminish. From yesterday, both Import Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims missed economist expectation, raising higher prospect for a rate cut by the end of July. When referring to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability for a rate cut during July’s meeting has achieved a high level of 89.1%, slightly higher than last week’s reading of only 86.5%. For the time being, investors will pry upon the release of Retail Sales report later tonight in order to attain more market signals. On the other hand, Japanese yen remains supported within the FX market as trade tension in between US and China continues to linger. Prior, US President Donald Trump warned that Washington may impose more tariffs upon China if a trade talk was not initiated during the upcoming G-20 summit in Osaka at the end of this month. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.04% to 96.97 while pair of USD/JPY traded flat at 108.38.

As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates slightly by 0.17% to $52.11 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than 1% on yesterday following reports of two major oil tankers being attacked in the Middle East which could escalate tensions in between Iran and US while reducing oil supply temporarily. Otherwise, gold price extended gains by 0.13% to $1,343.89 a troy ounce due to lingering risks in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

20:55                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.35, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel formation. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 108.20.

Resistance level: 108.50, 108.70

Support level: 108.20, 107.95

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6900.

Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.6965

Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6555. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.6555.

Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6615

Support level: 0.6555, 0.6525

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3315. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3375.

Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a narrowing triangle formation. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9915.

Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9865

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending triangle formation. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below 51.60.

Resistance level: 53.00, 54.45

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher after closing above the resistance of 1340.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 1355.00.

Resistance level: 1355.00, 1375.00

Support level: 1340.00, 1321.00

13 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie sinks with poor job data.

The Australian dollar fell against the dollar on early Thursday following prior release of downbeat Australian job data. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate for Australia rose to 5.2%, missing economists’ expectation to contract to 5.1%, thus indicating a weaker job sector. Recently, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had cut their cash rate to 1.25% from 1.5% and emphasized in their statement that the bank will continue to monitor future job and housing data to further assess the country’s economic performance. The weaker job data had caused uncertainties among investors that RBA may continue to cut rate consecutively especially during their policy meeting in early July if future economic data continues to disappoints. In other news, pound sterling was remained supported by Brexit optimism following comments from leading PM candidate Boris Johnson, where he emphasized to prevent a no-Brexit deal but will still make preparations for the outcome. He also stated that the government must deliver Brexit by 31^st October and a better deal must be in place. As of writing, AUD/USD is fell by 0.19% to 0.6912 while pair of GBP/USD ticked higher by 0.07% to 1.2690.

As for commodities market, crude oil price further its losses by 0.04% to $51.01 per barrel after US reported building crude oil inventories. Oil buyers are now hoping for further positive sentiment from the market such as a trade deal between US-China as well as OPEC’s effort to keep oil price higher. Otherwise, gold price rebounded by 0.27% to $1,336.85 a troy ounce following a major sell-off in Australian investments due to poor job figures.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

15:30                     CHF                                         SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

16:00                     CHF                                         SNB Press Conference

19:00                     CrudeOIL                               OPEC Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 96.90. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.45.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.25

Support level: 96.45, 96.05

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 1.2680. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower after it successfully breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2795

Support level: 1.2680, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1280. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 107.85.

Resistance level: 108.50, 109.15

Support level: 107.85, 107.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6900. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965

Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 0.6570. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6600.

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6645

Support level: 0.6570, 0.6545

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3335. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3290.

Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3380

Support level: 1.3290, 1.3230

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9965. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9910.

Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0005

Support level: 0.9910, 0.9855

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 50.55. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term as technical correction towards the resistance level 52.70.

Resistance level: 52.70, 54.50

Support level: 50.55, 48.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1334.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1345.55.

Resistance level: 1345.55, 1353.10

Support level: 1334.65, 1323.10

13 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback soars despite tame CPI data.

US dollar managed to appreciate against its other major peers despite subdued inflation data from the region. According to US Bureau of Statistics, Core CPI for the month of May rose by 0.1%, missing economist forecast to remain stable at 0.2%. The lower than expected inflation reading has further cemented market expectation for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, traders poured into the greenback as a rate cut would highly benefit US firms that may promote expansion and growth. Likewise, US dollar received higher long orders after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism on reaching a successful trade deal with China. In a post released on his official Twitter, Trump said he had a “feeling” that a trade deal can be reached but threatened to increase tariffs if it falters. For the time being, Fed Rate Monitor Tools shows an 85% chance of a rate cut during Fed’s policy meeting by the end of July. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.29% to 96.90. On the other hand, pair of USD/JPY rose 0.05% to 108.48 as of writing. Safe-haven Japanese yen was dumped on yesterday following Trump’s “optimism” in reaching consensus with China on trade deal.

As for commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.02% to $51.06 per barrel. Oil futures extended its losses after Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in last week’s oil inventories by 2.206 million barrels, missing economist forecast for a reduction of -0.481 million barrels. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.04% to $1,332.99 a troy ounce due to a rebound in greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

15:30                     CHF                       SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

16:00                     CHF                       SNB Press Conference

19:00                     CrudeOIL               OPEC Monthly Report

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following a rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to advance further up, towards the direction of 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.35, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.2745. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.2630.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher, towards the direction of 108.70.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15

Support level: 108.40, 107.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower after breaking the support level near 0.6940. MACD which illustrate persistent downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in mid-term.

Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.6965

Support level: 0.6900, 0.6860

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6615

Support level: 0.6555, 0.6490

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3420

Support level: 1.3315, 1.3280

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 0.9945. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 0.9945.

Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 50.55. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 51.40, 53.00

Support level: 50.55, 47.50

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1340.00, 1335.00

Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00

12 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar remains bottomed on Fed rate easing bets.

Dollar have fell against its peers on Tuesday as market continue to add further bets on Federal Reserve on interest rate cut. According to recent reports, investors have raise their expectation of easing policy following a number of Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, hinted they were open to easing monetary policy last week. Besides that, recent downbeat jobs report which mirrored the weakening labor market in U.S have further confirmed the rate cut expectation. The market is currently waiting for next week’s Fed meeting as a chance to see by how much and for how long it is ready to ease policy. Dollar index fell 0.03% to 96.59 at the time of writing. On the other hand, GBP/USD recovers and gains 0.04% to 1.2720 as of writing following positive UK wage data. According to National Statistics, local wage growth have improved with the reading of 3.1%, better-than-expected reading with the previous forecast of 3.0. At the same time, market also cheered on Brexit optimism which they expected higher chances of Boris Johnson being the next UK PM. Based on a separate report conveying the poll, the British media have stated that the lead runner in the UK PM race, Boris Johnson, may gain a 140-seat majority at the general election if he becomes Tory leader. As market remain on look for fresh directives, investors now focus on political development where politics are now in the spotlight.

As for commodities, crude oil price plummets 1.19% to $52.37 per barrel following EIA reduced oil growth forecast. Despite with growing expectations of ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts, optimism in the black commodity is short-lived. U.S Energy Information Association (EIA) have cut its forecasts for 2019 world oil demand growth and U.S. crude oil production in a monthly report by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.22 million bpd, which have diminishing the oil sentiment. Lastly, gold price regains 0.42% to $1332.33 a troy ounce as of writing amid pressured greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:15                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.35.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.35, 95.60

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2690. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2785.

Resistance level: 1.2785, 1.2865

Support level: 1.2690, 1.2615

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1305. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1360.

Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400

Support level: 1.1305, 1.1240

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 108.45. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 103.15, 109.70

Support level: 108.45, 107.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower after retracing from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6930.

Resistance level: 0.6970, 0.7030

Support level: 0.6930, 0.6860

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.6580. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6540.

Resistance level: 0.6580, 0.6635

Support level: 0.6540, 0.6510

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3305. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3305, 1.3380

Support level: 1.3255, 1.3175

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.9905. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9980

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 50.90. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 50.90.

Resistance level: 52.65, 53.85

Support level: 50.90, 49.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was trade higher following prior rebound from the support level 1321.50. MACD which illustrate bias bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1339.10.

Resistance level: 1339.10, 1347.00

Support level: 1331.15, 1324.35

12 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback flats, rate cut highly possible.

US dollar was traded flat against other major peers after US President Donald Trump criticize Federal Reserve while coupled with bleak outlook from recently released economic data. On yesterday, Trump commented in Twitter that the Federal Reserve has set the interest rate “way too high” and it has placed US at a disadvantage when compared to other currencies such as the euro. In addition, market participants are currently speculating for an imminent rate cut soon after US Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed down to 0.1% for the month of May, its slowest pace in nearly a year. Speculation erupted in the market after Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented last week that they will take “appropriate actions to sustain economic expansion”. Referring to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, traders are currently speculating a 76% chance for a rate cut during its July meeting. On the other hand, Australian dollar caught in a mixed sentiment while market participants anticipate the release of employment data which is scheduled for tomorrow morning. As of writing, dollar index was traded flat around 96.62 while pair of AUD/USD ticks up 0.02% to 0.6962.

As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.30% to $52.84 per barrel. Oil price received bearish pressure this morning after American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that last week’s crude inventories rose by 4.85 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,327.05 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:15                     EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 96.35.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.35, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle. However, due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from the top of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below 108.40.

Resistance level: 108.70, 109.15

Support level: 108.40, 107.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.6965. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6940.

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.6990

Support level: 0.6940, 0.6900

NZUDSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 0.6590. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6555.

Resistance level: 0.6590, 0.6615

Support level: 0.6555, 0.6490

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 1.3280. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3280.

Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3375

Support level: 1.3280, 1.3255

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above the resistance of 0.9915. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the direction of 0.9945.

Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9865

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 54.45. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its price to extend further down, towards the direction of 51.60.

Resistance level: 54.45, 57.30

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1321.00. MACD which shows diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1340.00, 1355.00

Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00

11 June 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Market remained skeptical as trade war escalates.

Greenback measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was relatively stable after US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariff against Chinese goods if a deal is not met. Earlier this week, Trump emphasized that a deal is crucial during the G20 summit at Osaka, Japan which will be held at the end of this month whereby he is expected to further trade talks with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. Trade tensions had since pressured global economy after previous talks ended with an impasse and additional tariffs on Chinese goods went into effect since 1^st June. Australia who is export-reliant for the Asia region was also pressured by trade feud after China’s import data showed signs of weaker domestic consumption with a reading of -8.5% compared to previous 4.0%. Investors will now place their focus onto possible trade developments especially the G20 summit although no reports had confirmed China’s willingness to further trade talks with the US. As of writing, dollar index ticked up by 0.03% to 96.69 while pair of AUD/USD was traded lower by 0.04% to 0.6955.

In terms of commodities, crude oil price was traded higher by 0.32% to $53.56 per barrel. Oil market sentiment remained mixed amid global economic slowdown and optimism from OPEC to further production cut throughout this year. On the other hand, gold price ticked lower by 0.01% to $1,328.49 a troy ounce while market participants wait for further signals in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat while currently testing the support level 96.65. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 96.90.

Resistance level: 96.90, 97.25

Support level: 96.65, 96.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2680. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2795

Support level: 1.2680, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its recent lows. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 108.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 109.15.

Resistance level: 109.15, 109.75

Support level: 108.50, 107.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6965. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6930.

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.7000

Support level:0.6930, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6600. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6570

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6645

Support level: 0.6570, 0.6545

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the golden cross formation suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.3295.

Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3345

Support level: 1.3220, 1.3125

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9910. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9910, 0.9965

Support level: 0.9855, 0.9790

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from its recent lows. However, MACD which indicate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 52.70.

Resistance level: 54.50, 55.75

Support level: 52.70, 50.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded flat in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest gold to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1334.65.

Resistance level: 1334.65, 1345.55

Support level: 1323.10, 1310.70

11 June 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

US jobs market slows further.

US dollar was traded flat against other major peers on yesterday while investors digests recent sluggishness in the jobs market. According to JOLTs, its Job Openings survey came in at only 7.449 million vacancies, missing economist forecast for a reading of 7.479 million vacancies. A lower than expected job openings in the month of April was consistent with a slowdown in hiring as seen from last Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. Report. The lack of improvement in terms of job openings shows diminishing demand for labor and it has raised more prospect in the market for an interest rate cut from US Federal Reserve later this year. For the time being, investors will shift their attention towards major economic releases throughout the week such as PPI, CPI and Retail Sales to attain further signals. On the other hand, pound sterling received higher short orders on yesterday following the release of bearish economic data. For the month of April, UK’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by -0.4%, missing economist forecast for a contraction of up to -0.1%. As of writing, dollar index ticks up 0.01% to 96.67 while GBP/USD was down by 0.03% to 1.2687.

In terms of commodities, crude oil price rose 0.13% to $53.45 per barrel. Oil prices stabilized during early Asian hours while investors expect OPEC and its allies to extend the oil production cut agreement later this month. On the other hand, gold price notched up 0.06% to $1,328.67 a troy ounce due to lingering risks in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50

Support level: 96.35, 95.80

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380

Support level: 1.1275, 1.1220

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an upward channel formation. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 108.50, 108.70

Support level: 107.95, 107.70

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below the MA line.

Resistance level: 0.6965, 0.6990

Support level: 0.6940, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6615. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6590.

Resistance level: 0.6615, 0.6655

Support level: 0.6590, 0.6555

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its rebound in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3315, 1.3375

Support level: 1.3255, 1.3220

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a descending triangle formation. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9910, 0.9965

Support level: 0.9865, 0.9810

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below the MA line.

Resistance level: 54.45, 57.30

Support level: 51.60, 50.55

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1340.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1340.00, 1355.00

Support level: 1321.00, 1302.00