Daily Analysis

28 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Dollar falls amid poor consumer confidence.

Dollar index weakened against a basket of six major currency pairs after the announcement of US CB Consumer Confidence data yesterday. According to US Conference Board, the data which measure consumer confidence level in US and contributes to the country’s inflation came in at 128.1, missing economists’ expectation of 133.7. As the global economy slowdown continues to weigh on sentiment for the dollar, yesterday’s data boosted dollar bears as it indicates possible inflation slowdown in the US which will then lead to lesser rate hikes by US Federal Reserve for next year. However, Initial Jobless Claims data indicated less than expected claims filed by unemployed individuals which indicates improving employment growth. In other news, pair of EUR/USD was seen gaining against both the dollar and pound sterling as uncertainties and negative sentiment surrounding both markets made the euro more appealing to investors. Although the Euro Zone remains pressured by European Central Bank (ECB) dovish statement regarding future economic growth for euro, political uncertainties in the UK and US such as Brexit jitters and temporary US government shutdown caused investors to go against both pound and dollar while providing support for euro bulls. Greenback was down by 0.39% to 96.05 while pair of EUR/USD was up by 0.12% to 1.1445 as of writing.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 1.15% to $45.90 during early Asian trading session while market sentiment waits for the delayed inventory report by the API due to the holiday season. As investors are still expecting the cut in oil production by OPEC and other partners to balance the oversupply in the market starting next month, they will first focus on US oil inventory report from API and EIA to gauge the momentum for oil price. On the other hand, gold price inched up by 0.09% to $1275.50 a troy ounce amid weakened dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 96.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 95.70.

Resistance level: 96.00, 96.25

Support level: 95.70, 95.25

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remained trade in an ascending channel while currently testing the resistance level 1.2660. MACD which display diminishing bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing its candle above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2660, 1.2700

Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.1435. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1470.

Resistance level: 1.1470, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1435, 1.1395

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 110.60. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 110.90, 111.35

Support level: 110.60, 110.20

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7070.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7035, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6700. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6745.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6785

Support level: 0.6700, 0.6655

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3610. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3645, 1.3680

Support level: 1.3610, 1.3565

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.9835. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9920

Support level: 0.9835, 0.9785

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 45.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 47.00.

Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50

Support level: 45.20, 43.55

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1278.00. MACD which display starting bullish signal and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1278.00, 1284.00

Support level: 1273.50, 1267.00

27 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar firmed amid U.S – China tension ease.

Dollar index held its gains against its basket of six major currency pairs as markets cheered on reports on easing tension of US-Sino. According to reports, a trade team from the U.S will be sent to Beijing to hold talks with Chinese officials on January 7. With the ongoing trade war between the two biggest economy powerhouses, the news has ease fears among investors and boost confidence around the outlook of the dollar. Besides that, the dollar has been further strengthened with the data showing U.S 2018 holiday sales has rose 5.1 percent which is the strongest gain in six years, illustrating a growing economy outlook. Dollar index rose 0.03 to 96.30 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUDUSD slips 0.17% to 0.7055 at the time of writing amid a slowdown in China economy. According to data, China’s industrial profits for December has fell for the first time three years with the reading of -1.8% against forecasted reading 3.6% and economist has expected earnings will continue to worsen next year. As China is the biggest trading partner with Australia, thus it is highly sensitive towards China’s data and also economy outlook.

As for commodities market, crude oil price remains sluggish and slips 0.62% to $46.28 per barrel as of writing as concerns over a glut in supply remains a major pressure in the market. Despite OPEC and its allies have agreed to cut supply, investors remain skeptical and fear that the supply cut would not be enough to balance the supply and demand in the market. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.16% to $1268.50 at the time of writing amid dollar regaining its confidence which supported by US – Sino tension ease.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 96.35.

Resistance level: 96.85, 97.45

Support level: 96.35, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2695. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.2610.

Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2610, 1.2550

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was trading higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1395.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1440

Support level: 1.1355, 1.1310

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 111.60.

Resistance level: 111.60, 112.25

Support level: 110.95, 110.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from its recent highs. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pear to undergo a technical correction towards the support level 0.7035.

Resistance level: 0.7095, 0.7160

Support level: 0.7035, 0.6975

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6740. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6690.

Resistance level: 0.6740, 0.6785

Support level: 0.6690, 0.6610

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3600. MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3505.

Resistance level: 1.3600, 1.3650

Support level: 1.3505, 1.3440

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9955. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9905.

Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 46.20. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 46.20.

Resistance level: 46.20, 48.45

Support level: 43.75, 42.05

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1277.30. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1246.15.

Resistance level: 1277.30, 1283.90

Support level: 1265.15, 1257.35

27 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Dollar rebounds as US stock market rallies.

Greenback strengthened against a basket of six major currencies pair as US stock market rebounds from its low, gaining more than 2 percent from its technology shares while regaining stability for the equity markets. However, market participants remained cautions while waiting for further sentiment in the midst of US political turmoil. Recent market uncertainties include US President Donald Trump Mexico border wall where he emphasized that partial shutdown of the federal government will last until his funds request for the wall is met. Besides that, Trump also criticized the Federal Reserve (Fed) for continuously increasing interest rate while economy is slowing down, blaming the Fed as the main problem for its economy. Dollar index increased by 0.48% to 96.50 as of writing. In other news, pair of USD/JPY retraced from yesterday’s high, falling by 0.24% to 111.10 during early Asian trading session. The safe-haven Yen underwent a large sell-off when investors risk appetite shifted towards the dollar market due to US stocks rebound. As market sentiment improved for the dollar market, investors reacted quickly by shifting their investments from safe-haven assets, causing the Yen to lose last 3 days of its gains.

In the commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.82% to $46.20 after rebounding as much as 8%, its largest one-day increased since 30^th November 2016 amid improved sentiment arising from US stocks market. However, market sentiment remains cloudy for the crude as market uncertainties still exist while investors will focus on the impact of OPEC production cut early next month. On the other hand, gold price rebounds by 0.28% to $1270.50 a troy ounce after falling from its higher levels due to US stocks rebound. Sentiment for the gold market remains strong as global uncertainties still haunts market participants.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.25.

Resistance level: 96.55, 96.85

Support level: 96.25, 96.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remained trade in an ascending channel while currently testing near the lower level of the channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the channel.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2740

Support level: 1.2660, 1.2610

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1350. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1395.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1435

Support level: 1.1350, 1.1320

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 110.90. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the support level.

Resistance level: 111.35, 111.65

Support level: 110.90, 110.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7070. MACD which illustrate starting bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7035.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7035, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the upward trend line (red) and support level near 0.6700. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level and upward trend line.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6785

Support level: 0.6700, 0.6655

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3565. MACD which display diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3610.

Resistance level: 1.3610, 1.3645

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3530

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9920. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9960, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9920, 0.9875

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 47.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 45.20.

Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50

Support level: 45.20, 43.55

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1267.00. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1273.50.

Resistance level: 1273.50, 1278.00

Support level: 1267.00, 1262.90

26 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar flat amid holiday seasons.

Dollar index remained flat at 96.00 against a basket of six major currency pairs during early European trading session due to slow market movements during Christmas and New Year holiday. Current economy outlook for US remains bearish as US stock markets continues to tumble while investors safe-keep their investments in safe-haven Yen and gold market. In fear of global economy slowdown and political turmoil arising from US, investors refrained from entering the dollar market while waiting for possible change in sentiment such as easing of trade war. Besides that, market participants will also keep their focus on the impact that may occur when US Democrats Party replace the Republican Party place for US House of Representatives. In other news, pair of GBP/USD was up by 0.22% to 1.2705 while investors currently wait for possible updates on Brexit news which was left on pause. UK Prime Minister Theresa May was able to buy herself some time to renegotiate Brexit deals with the EU while the Parliament vote on her Brexit deal was delayed to 14^th of January next year. However, odds of May getting the vote and retaining her position as PM are very low as even her Conservative Party are mostly going against her although she managed to pass the ‘no-confidence’ vote earlier this month.

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains unchanged at $42.75 after hitting 18-months low. Sentiment for the oil market remains cloudy as crude oil bulls hope for a rally for oil prices when OPEC production cut takes into effect next month. On the other hand, gold price further its gains by 0.12% to $1273.55 per troy ounce amid global market uncertainties.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 96.30, 96.55

Support level: 96.00, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2700. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing its candle above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2740

Support level: 1.2660, 1.2610

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1400. MACD which display starting bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.1435, 1.1470

Support level: 1.1400, 1.1365

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 110.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 110.65.

Resistance level: 110.65, 111.00

Support level: 110.15, 109.80

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7070.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7035, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6730. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing its candle above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6730, 0.6760

Support level: 0.6700, 0.6660

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3625. MACD which illustrate starting bearish signal and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo technical correction and retrace the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3625, 1.3670

Support level: 1.3580, 1.3540

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9860. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9900.

Resistance level: 0.9900, 0.9940

Support level: 0.9860, 0.9830

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 42.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the support level.

Resistance level: 43.75, 45.50

Support level: 42.25, 40.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1274.00. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1274.00, 1280.00

Support level: 1267.00, 1262.90

26 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Dollar edges lower amid political uncertainties.

Dollar index fell against a basket of six major currencies pairs amid worsening political tensions arising from the US including government shutdown and standoff between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. After the Democrats successfully won over the House of Representatives from the Republicans, investors now fear that the change in power will affect US President Donald Trump in introducing new legislation. Besides that, recent tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell where Trump threatened to fire Powell from his position also worsen the sentiment towards dollar. Trump stated that the only problem with current US economy is Fed’s decision for rate hike, and that they do not understand the current economy outlook. With global economy forecasted to slowdown next year and recent turmoil in the US led investors to shift their investment towards safe-haven assets such as gold and Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen was largely demanded due to its stability in politics and economy which attracted investors at a time of economy slowdown. Dollar index was down by 0.02% to 96.00 while pair of USD/JPY inched higher by 0.06% to 110.45 at the time of writing.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rallied by 0.80% to $42.75 after hitting 18-months low amid fear of global economy slowdown and also increasing US oil inventories. Although OPEC is expected to cut oil supply by 1.2M bpd, investors now fear that the slowdown in global economy will largely affect oil demand and also its prices. On the other hand, gold price surged by 1.06% to $1272.00 a troy ounce amid global economy uncertainties.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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12:00                     JPY                                          BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 96.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 96.30, 96.55

Support level: 96.00, 95.75

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.2700. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2740.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2740

Support level: 1.2660, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1400. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1435

Resistance level: 1.1435, 1.1470

Support level: 1.1400, 1.1365

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 110.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 110.50, 110.90

Support level: 110.00, 109.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7040. MACD which display starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to undergo technical correction and rebound from the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7040, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6730. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6800

Support level: 0.6730, 0.6700

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.3580. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3625.

Resistance level: 1.3625, 1.3670

Support level: 1.3580, 1.3540

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9860. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9900, 0.9940

Support level: 0.9860, 0.9830

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 43.55. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 42.00.

Resistance level: 43.55, 45.50

Support level: 42.00, 40.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1272.60. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a successful breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1274.00, 1280.00

Support level: 1267.00, 1262.90

24 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback bruised by data and politics.

US dollar extended its losses during mid-Asian trading session following political instability while coupled with bearish economic data from last Friday. Trading volumes were thinning out as most global markets set to shut for Christmas holidays. However, market bids for Japanese yen and Swiss franc remains on the high side due to political stress as US Federal Government was partially shut while Democrats took over the House of Representatives. Furthermore, greenback received additional downward pressure following recessive economic data from last Friday. For the month of November, US Core Durable Goods Orders plunged by -0.3%, missing economist forecast for 0.3%. In addition, Gross Domestic Product for third quarter slows down to 3.4%, a tad lower than previous quarter and forecast to remain at 3.5%. Both releases accompany a series of recessive data as of recent which has dialed down market’s sentiment towards US economic growth. Elsewhere, pound sterling extended its gains this morning while traders continues to monitor Brexit progress in United Kingdom. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to seek her parliamentary approval in January, putting a final answer to the long-going progress of exiting the European Union. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.19% to 96.23 while pair of GBP/USD rose 0.21% to 1.2665.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 1.51% to $45.77 per barrel during Asian trading session. The commodity recovered its losses after OPEC and non-OPEC monitoring committee will reportedly meet in late February or early March to discuss further actions to be taken to maintain price stability. Otherwise, gold price jumped 0.64% to $1,263.87 a troy ounce following risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 96.45. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the index to extend its losses after a close below 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 96.25, 96.45

Support level: 95.95, 95.55

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.1360. MACD which illustrate the formation of bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its prior low levels. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 111.80, 112.20

Support level: 110.75, 110.20

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 0.7060. MACD which has formed a positive divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7105.

Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7170

Support level: 0.7060, 0.7020

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6710. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following retracement from its previous high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3615, 1.3715

Support level: 1.3530, 1.3430

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance at 0.9955. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down after closing below 0.9930.

Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9930, 0.9905

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 45.40. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50

Support level: 45.40, 43.70

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout while currently testing at the resistance of 1263.20. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to move further upwards after successfully closing above the target of 1263.20.

Resistance level: 1263.20, 1284.35

Support level: 1242.10, 1215.95

24 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Dollar edged lower amid political tensions.

Dollar index was traded lower against a basket of six major pairs during early Asian trading session amid the political tension arising from US. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump had threatened to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell after another rate hike despite Trump’s demand for pause in rate. Later that day, White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney said that Trump is aware that he is unable to fire Powell, and that tension between president and the independent Fed is part of the system. Besides that, an extension of U.S government shutdown which could continue to 3rd January, where Democrats replace republican party from the House of Representatives when the new congress convened has dialed down the market’s positive sentiment toward the Greenback. As of now, Dollar Index plunged 0.12% to 96.30. In other news, pair of USD/CAD fell by 0.21% to 1.3570 after hitting 18 months high due to mixed Canada data last Friday. Canada’s GDP had an actual reading of 0.3%, higher compared to 0.2% while Core Retail Sales was 0.0%, lower compared to forecasted 0.3%. Further boosting the pair’s bullish momentum was the fall in crude oil prices.

In the commodities market, crude oil price surged by 1.55% to $46.05 after falling to lower levels last Friday. During the weekend, US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data reported an additional of 10 rigs, which raised investors’ concerns towards oversupply in the market. However, tensions ease as the market moves towards the holiday season. On the other hand, gold price increases by 0.52% to $1262.10 a troy ounce amid dollar’s fall.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

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Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level of 96.30. MACD which display bearish momentum and the starting formation of death cross suggest dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 96.00.

Resistance level: 96.30, 96.60

Support level: 96.00, 95.65

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher inside a sideway channel following prior breakout from previous resistance level of 1.2660. MACD which display starting bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the top level of the channel at 1.2700.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2740

Support level: 1.2660, 1.2610

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1365. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1400.

Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1435

Support level: 1.1365, 1.1325

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 110.90. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 111.35, 111.65

Support level: 110.90, 110.50

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7070. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7040, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6730. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6700.

Resistance level: 0.6700, 0.6800

Support level: 0.6730, 0.6700

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3580. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3540.

Resistance level: 1.3580, 1.3625

Support level: 1.3540, 1.3500

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level at 0.9925. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9925, 0.9875

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 45.50. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 47.00.

Resistance level: 47.00, 48.05

Support level: 45.50, 44.50

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1262.90. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully closing its candle above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1262.90, 1267.00

Support level: 1258.00, 1254.30

21 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar struggles ahead of holiday season.

US dollar struggles near one-month low during mid-Asian session following subdued economic outlook which has evoked higher risk aversion in the financial market. The greenback suffered from a slump following the release of Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index from yesterday which accompanies a set of economic releases that signaled for an economic downturn. Moreover, US yield curve continues to flatten near 11-years low, signifying lower market confidence towards the long-run as long-term bond yield slumped below short-term bond yields. Adding up on overall bearish sentiment in the market is the imminent government shutdown which has sparked higher risk-off mood among investors. According to reports, US President Donald Trump threatened to veto a spending bill unless it includes funds to build a wall near the border of Mexico. The impasses brew higher risk of federal government shutdown which will begin on Saturday. On the other hand, pound sterling continues to trade within a tight range following ongoing Brexit risk in the UK. On yesterday, Bank of England kept their interest rates unchanged while commenting that current Brexit uncertainty has “Intensified considerably”. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.03% to 95.81 while pairing of GBP/USD retraced by 0.05% to 1.2657.

Over to the commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat near $46.52 per barrel as market participants anticipates the release of US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count to gauge regional oil drilling activity. On the other hand, gold price hovers near 5-months high as financial market lurched into risk-off mode.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 95.60. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggest the index to be extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 96.00, 96.35

Support level: 95.60, 95.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top. Due to the lack of signal from Stochastic Oscillator and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.1490. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1450.

Resistance level: 1.1490, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 111.60, 111.20

Support level: 110.70, 110.20

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat within the range of 0.7140 and 0.7105. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, before extending its losses based on the current downward trendline.

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7170

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of expanding channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6650

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a small upward channel. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in mid-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615

Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 0.9870. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9820.

Resistance level: 0.9870, 0.9905

Support level: 0.9820, 0.9770

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from a lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50

Support level: 45.40, 43.70

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1263.20. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1263.20, 1270.00

Support level: 1253.00, 1242.10

21 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Is US heading towards a recession?

Greenback slipped to 1-month low against other major currencies on Thursday following concerns that United States may be heading for a sharp economic decline despite Federal Reserve’s call to raise interest rates further next year. The dollar index tumbled 0.66%, last seen around 95.85 during Asian trading sessions. Despite Fed official’s call to raise interest rates three times by early 2020, US bond yield curve (widely considered as the indicator of future recessions) has flattened to 10 basis points, a tad above 11-years low. An inversion in yield curve is seen as a sign of economic recession as long-term bond yield fell below short-term bonds, triggering a flight in risky assets towards safe-haven such as Japanese yen and gold. Furthermore, the US dollar experienced additional bearish pressure following the release of downbeat economic data on yesterday. According to Philadelphia Fed, its Manufacturing Index for the month of December fell sharply to 9.4, missing economist forecast for a reading of 15.6. This has added up to a numerous series of recessive economic data which downplays US economic outlook in the long-term. Against other major currencies, GBP/USD rose 0.11% to 1.2670 while USD/JPY depreciates by 0.16% to 111.09.

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.39% to $46.09 per barrel. The commodity price received some support after Saudi Arabia announced its plans to cut oil output more than it has committed during OPEC meeting in Vienna. Otherwise, gold prices extended gains by 0.21% to $1,262.44 a troy ounce following broad weakness in the US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 95.60. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggest the index to be extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 96.00, 96.35

Support level: 95.60, 95.40

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top. Due to the lack of signal from Stochastic Oscillator and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.1490. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1450.

Resistance level: 1.1490, 1.1520

Support level: 1.1450, 1.1410

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 111.60, 111.20

Support level: 110.70, 110.20

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat within the range of 0.7140 and 0.7105. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, before extending its losses based on the current downward trendline.

Resistance level: 0.7140, 0.7170

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 0.6780. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6650

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending wedge. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate a rebound signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3530.

Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615

Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 0.9870. MACD which illustrate bearish signal and momentum suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.9820.

Resistance level: 0.9870, 0.9905

Support level: 0.9820, 0.9770

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from a lower level. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50

Support level: 45.40, 43.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior closure above the resistance level at 1253.00. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to advance further up after closing above 1263.20.

Resistance level: 1263.20, 1270.00

Support level: 1253.00, 1242.10

20 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar ‘stunned’ amid mixed signal from Fed.

Greenback was traded flat after sharp rebound from one month low level amid Federal Reserve managed to raise 25 basis point before the end of this year. Prior to the interest rate decision, financial market was widely anticipating that Fed will pause hiking interest rate in short term due to rising uncertainty about global economic growth. Yet, the market were surprised by Fed decision where they retain their core of its plan to continue tightening their monetary policy although there are some amendment in the statement and lowered the growth and inflation forecast for year 2019. As of now, Federal Reserve ‘dot plot’ the number of interest rate hike to two times instead of three for next year. Dollar index dipped 0.03% to 96.45 during Asian trading session. On the other hand, pair of NZD/USD plunged 0.41% to 0.6740 amid New Zealand’s economic growth plunged to its lowest level in almost five years in the third quarter, dropping a hint of New Zealand Central Bank shall loosen their monetary policy in the future.

In the commodities market, crude oil price notched down by 0.15% to $47.30 per barrel, pressured by downbeat crude oil inventories data. Thus, market participant are still worry about the inventory oversupply issues and the outlook for the global economy. On the other hand, gold price surged 0.11% to $1,244.00 a troy ounce following dollar’s retracement from 96.50 high level.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 96.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its loss toward the support level at 96.30.

Resistance level: 96.50, 96.65

Support level: 96.30, 96.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2620. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2620.

Resistance level: 1.2675, 1.2730

Support level: 1.2620, 1.2535

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1360. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1395.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1360, 1.1340

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the top levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 112.25.

Resistance level: 112.65, 113.20

Support level: 112.25, 112.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.7115. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7080.

Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7155

Support level: 0.7080, 0.7060

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6755. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the support level at 0.6710.

Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6790

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6630

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.3495. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3545.

Resistance level: 1.3545, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3495, 1.3445

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9920. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9955.

Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0005

Support level: 0.9920, 0.9865

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 47.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 46.20.

Resistance level: 47.40, 48.40

Support level: 46.20, 45.20

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1241.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1246.15.

Resistance level: 1246.15, 1251.05

Support level: 1241.35, 1234.25

20 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Greenback rallies as Fed disobeys Trump.

US dollar stages a sharp rebound from one-month low amid mixed signals from US Federal Reserve conclusion of their two-day monetary policy meeting. As of Asian session, the dollar index was quoted up 0.41%, last seen around 96.40. As widely expected, the Fed raised their interest rates for the fourth time this year, hiking 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50%. However, Fed officials were seemingly cautious in their tone and decision while dialing back their projection for future rate hikes and economic growth in 2019. The Fed projects at least two rate hikes for the year 2019, signaling that they may soon pause their monetary policy tightening in the near future. Speaking in a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the policy is not being ran on a preset course. He reiterates significant amount of uncertainty with regards to forward guidance and target rate as global economy shows signs of a slowdown. Yet, the Feds stood tall to their decision by defying criticism from US President Donald Trump which were speculated by some to halt the course for a monetary policy tightening. Against other major currencies, pair of GBP/USD was down 0.51% to 1.2625 while EUR/USD depreciates by 0.30% to 1.1385.

In the commodities market, crude oil price was down by 0.08% to $47.05 per barrel. Oil prices received some selling pressure after EIA reported a lesser-than-expected draw in crude inventories by -0.497 million barrels versus forecast of -2.437 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.09% to $1,253.38 a troy ounce following dollar’s rebound from a lower level.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from previous low level. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 96.45.

Resistance level: 96.45, 96.60

Support level: 96.25, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.2575.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after breaking the target near 112.60.

Resistance level: 112.60, 112.95

Support level: 112.35, 112.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.7170. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target near 0.7105.

Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7220

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6780. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction at 0.6710.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a rising wedge formation for the past few periods. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the top level of the wedge.

Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615

Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the upper level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9930, 0.9905

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from previous low level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50

Support level: 45.40, 43.70

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance near 1253.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests its prices to advance further down after closing below 1242.10.

Resistance level: 1253.00, 1263.20

Support level: 1242.10, 1237.25

19 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar pressured amid expected dovish outlook.

note from Federal Reserve. According to reports, the Fed is expected to increase rate on Wednesday. However, due to increasing trade tensions between US and China and the slowdown in global growth, investors expected that the Federal Reserve will likely to adopt a dovish outlook on the monetary policy and could signaling ideas of fewer rate hikes for the upcoming year. Besides that, U.S President also criticized the Fed for even considering yet another interest rate hike despite current economy outlook. Dollar index was down 0.25% to 96.30 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUD/USD inched higher 0.22% to 0.7190 at the time of writing as strong commodity sentiment has provide boost for the Aussie. The Aussie has found support from the increasing strength from commodity such as safe-haven gold due to trade tensions fears. In addition, investors are also eyeing on dovish note from Fed monetary statement on U.S counterpart which could provide further boost for the Aussie.

As for commodities market, crude oil price recovers 0.85% to $46.95 per barrel as of writing after a major tumble following the increasing worries of oversupply which continues to pressure the oil market. Based on American Petroleum Institute statement on Tuesday, U.S crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week while at the same time, U.S government also stated that shale production is expected to increase to over 8 million bpd for the first time by the end of December. Thus, it has increase further pressure for the already weak oil sentiment and causing another major selloff. On the other hand, gold price inched higher 0.11% to $1250.60 at the time of writing amid dollar weakness which dragged by expected dovish monetary policy from the Fed this week.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00 (20^th)          USD                                        FOMC Economic Projections

03:00                     USD                                        FOMC Statement

03:30                     USD                                        FOMC Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently retest the support level 96.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 96.85.

Resistance level: 96.85, 97.45

Support level: 96.25, 95.75

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 1.2675. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction and retrace from the resistance level 1.2675.

Resistance level: 1.2675, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2610, 1.2550

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was trading higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term and retrace from the nearby resistance level 1.1395.

Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1440

Support level: 1.1355, 1.1310

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently retest the support level 112.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction towards the resistance level 112.70.

Resistance level: 112.70, 113.20

Support level: 112.25, 111.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7160. MACD which display bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.7220.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265

Support level: 0.7160, 0.7095

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6835. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair may undergo short term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 0.6835

Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6835, 0.6805

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3500. MACD which illustrate bearish bias suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3440.

Resistance level: 1.3500, 1.3565

Support level: 1.3440, 1.3395

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.9905.MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9955.

Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 46.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo a technical correction and rebound from the support level 46.15.

Resistance level: 48.45, 50.25

Support level: 46.15, 44.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following recent breakout above the previous resistance level 1249.50. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the formation of bearish divergence suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a short-term technical correction towards back below previous resistance level 1249.50

Resistance level: 1258.00, 1265.00

Support level: 1249.50, 1241.80

19 December 2018                            Morning Session Analysis

Greenback’s fate lies upon dot-plot.

Greenback was traded lower against its rivals on Tuesday while Federal Reserve policy meeting gets underway. The dollar index was down by 0.12% to 96.44 during early Asian trading session. The dollar suffered from bearish selloffs since last Monday amid growing expectation towards Feds to adopt a more dovish outlook upon their future monetary policy and US economic outlook. Factors which supports such speculation includes recent sluggishness in economic releases as well as unresolved trade tensions between US and China. While the central bank is highly expected to raise their interest rates tonight, analysts forecast for a lower frequency of rate hikes next year with only two times as compared to previous guidance of three times. In addition, greenback failed to make any substantial recovery on yesterday after US President Donald Trump directed his criticism towards the Federal Reserve. Trump criticized the central bank in a tweet for its two-days meeting, calling officials to cease raising interest rates as economic data is “meaningless”. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.09% to 1.2652 as of writing. Sterling found some bullish support after British government announced to ramp up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, a situation whereby UK may leave European Union without a trade agreement.

In the commodities section, crude oil price plunged 4.52% to $46.72 per barrel, its lowest level in 15 months. Crude oil prices extended its bearish journey as holiday season approaches with lesser traders taking long position from the lower price levels. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.01% to $1,249.72 a troy ounce as investor’s anticipates Fed’s interest rate decision slated for release later tonight.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00 (20^th)          USD                                        FOMC Economic Projections

03:00                     USD                                        FOMC Statement

03:30                     USD                                        FOMC Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 96.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to extend further down, towards the direction at 96.25.

Resistance level: 96.45, 96.60

Support level: 96.25, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2700.

Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770

Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1410.

Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450

Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 112.35.

Resistance level: 112.60, 112.95

Support level: 112.35, 112.10

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7170. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards 0.7220.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6840. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6890.

Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6940

Support level: 0.6840, 0.6780

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615

Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.9930. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term and retest near 0.9905.

Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9955

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9870

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lowest level in 15 months. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50

Support level: 45.40, 42.05

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1237.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1253.00, 1263.20

Support level: 1242.10, 1237.25

18 December 2018                            Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar flat ahead of Fed rate hike expectations.

Greenback was traded flat against a basket of six major currency pairs after being pressured earlier today due to large equity sell-off and poor US data while investors currently waits for US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision and statement later this week. Although poorer data would affect Fed’s decision to continue rate hike next year, it isn’t sufficient to restrain Fed from raising interest rate for the last time this year. While global economy currently slowing down, Fed’s interest rate statement is widely expected to include a dovish note regarding future US economy growth. Dollar index inched higher by 0.02% to 96.50 as of writing. In other news, pair of NZD/USD surged 0.66% to 0.6850 amid higher than expected data this morning. According to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), New Zealand’s Business Confidence came in at -24.1, higher compared to economists’ expectations of -37.1. The data indicates higher business investment activities as well as improving levels of output.

In the commodities market, crude oil price continued its bearish momentum, falling by 0.02% to $49.45 per barrel before early European trading session. Sentiment in the crude market remains cloudy as investors fear that OPEC’s plan to cut supply by 1.2M bpd might be insufficient to rebalance the increasing US crude inventories. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.14% to $1,247.50 a troy ounce as market uncertainties pressured investors to hold safe-haven assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level at 96.60. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest dollar to undergo technical correction and rebound from its lower level.

Resistance level: 96.60, 96.80

Support level: 96.30, 96.00

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2605. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards its resistance level 1.2660.

Resistance level: 1.2660, 1.2700

Support level: 1.2605, 1.2535

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1360. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1325.

Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400

Support level: 1.1325, 1.1300

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of the symmetrical triangle. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 112.70.

Resistance level: 112.70, 113.05

Support level: 112.30, 112.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.7185. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7220.

Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6835. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6895.

Resistance level: 0.6895, 0.6940

Support level: 0.6835, 0.6800

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 1.3400. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3355.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3450

Support level: 1.3355, 1.3315

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9925. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9965.

Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9925, 0.9880

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level 49.55. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 48.05.

Resistance level: 49.55, 50.50

Support level: 48.05, 47.00

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level while currently testing near the support level 1246.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1250.00, 1254.30

Support level: 1246.45, 1241.60