Daily Analysis

2 November 2018                              Morning Session Analysis

Dollar loses steam, sterling shines through.

Dollar-bulls vanished on yesterday after recent data showed that US manufacturing activity contracts extensively to half-year low. The dollar index mends its losses by 0.05% to 96.05 during Asian trading session. According to Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI for the month of October declined to a reading of 57.7 from 58.8, below economist expectation for a reading of 59.0. The data has notched its second monthly decline following softened consumption while production and employment expands sparingly but at a lower level when compared to September. In addition, the greenback was also being weighed down by a surge in pound sterling following reports that Britain is close to securing a financial services deal with the EU. The deal would enable UK financial services firms to gain access into the EU market after Brexit. Furthermore, sterling was further boosted after Bank of England hinted a faster pace of interest rate hike should UK and EU reached their consensus upon Brexit withdrawal agreement. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD was down 0.11% to 1.2999.

As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 2.25% since yesterday to $63.58 per barrel. The precious commodity extended its losses after India and South Korea agreed with the US on the outline of deals that would allow them to import some Iranian oil, playing down crude supply shortage possibility from US-backed sanction against Iran. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1,232.97 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 95.95. MACD which illustrate the imminent formation of golden cross suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the target of 96.20.

Resistance level: 96.20, 96.60

Support level: 95.95, 95.55

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.3015. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3015, 1.3100

Support level: 1.2955, 1.2895

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1.1415. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1415, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the bottom. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30

Support level: 112.60, 112.10

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance level of 0.7205. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to experience technical correction and to be traded lower in short-term.

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7235

Support level: 0.7170, 0.7135

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the strong resistance of 0.6610. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance of 0.6660.

Resistance level: 0.6660, 0.6700

Support level: 0.6610, 0.6575

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.3080. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after a successful closure above 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3010

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance at 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 0.9990, 0.9960

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the strong support of 64.80. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggest its price to extend its losses, towards the target at 62.50.

Resistance level: 64.80, 65.45

Support level: 62.50, 60.25

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 1237.25. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1237.25, 1242.10

Support level: 1228.00, 1215.95

1 November 2018                              Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar retraces as China data delivers.

The dollar index was traded lower amid China release of Caixin Manufacturing PMI data which came in higher than expected at 50.1 compared to its previous data of 50.0. The data indicates a strong manufacturing sector and growing economy for China. Investors took the chance to flee from dollar market ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data tomorrow and enter the Asian market boosted by positive sentiment. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar was largely bought following positive data from China, further decreasing the demand for dollar. Australian’s Trade Balance data for the month of September had a reading of 3.017B compared to expected reading of 1.700B which further increasing the demand for both Australian and New Zealand dollar. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.28% to 96.30 while pair of AUD/USD and NZD/USD was up by 0.72% and 1.00% to 0.7125 and 0.6580 respectively.

For the commodities market, crude oil price edges higher by 0.17% to 64.95 after falling to a its lowest level since 20^th August amid worsening sentiment. Recent reports stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was increasing oil production for the month of October, while US President Donald Trump stated that supply of petroleum was sufficient to offset the decrease a supply from Iran sanctions. Both news indicates that Iran sanction on 4^th November will not bring much of an impact towards the oil market. In other news, gold price recovered part of its losses yesterday after investors exit from safe-haven assets, edging higher by 0.33% to 1218.45.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     GBP                                        BoE Inflation Report

20:30                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 96.60. MACD which display bearish signal and the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.60, 96.30

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2855. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2905

Support level: 1.2800, 1.2740

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.1335. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1385.

Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1300

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 112.75. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 113.20, 113.50

Support level: 112.75, 112.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7105. MACD which display bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7145.

Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7175

Support level: 0.7105, 0.7080

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6586. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6586, 0.6610

Support level: 0.6565, 0.6535

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3175. MACD which display bearish momentum and the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3115.

Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3205

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3065

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the support level 1.0065. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0030.

Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0100

Support level: 1.0030, 0.9980

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 64.80. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 66.10, 67.50

Support level: 64.80, 63.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1220.40. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1220.40, 1225.05

Support level: 1215.10, 1207.10

1 November 2018                              Morning Session Analysis

Dollar flirts 16 -months high after ADP delivers.

Greenback was seen hovering near 16-months high against other major currencies on Wednesday over the backdrop of optimistic private labor market data. The dollar index was quoted up 0.02% to 96.82 during Asian trading session. In the labor market front, ADP reported that the total number of private payrolls came in at 227,000 for the month of October, exceeding economist forecast to come in at only 189,000. The bullish results came into surprise for many as analysts were expecting a downbeat result due to prior month’s fallout from Hurricane Florence. However, gains on the dollar were limited as pound sterling rebounds from its session low amid hopes of reaching a Brexit deal with EU sooner than later. Market sentiment turned positive after a letter from Brexit minister Dominic Raab indicated that the UK and EU could reach consensus with regards to Brexit deal by November 21^st. However, gains on the sterling were also limited as Raab admitted that there was no “concrete” date being set for the negotiation to take place for the time being. As such, pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.04% to 1.2771 as of writing.

On to the commodities market, crude oil price was down more than 11% on yesterday, its biggest monthly loss in nearly 2 years as the market was unconvinced with US oil embargo against Iran which could do little harm as expected from before. In addition, China signaled to execute further economic stimulus measure after recent economic data showed that the current policies are not yielding their prior expected results. Such bearish sentiment against the world’s largest oil importer has further fueled the selloff against the crude oil prices. As of writing, crude oil price mended its losses by 0.19% to $64.92 per barrel. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.21% to $1,217.13 a troy ounce following risk aversion within the market following bearish economic outlook against world largest economic powerhouse – China.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     GBP                        BoE Inflation Report

20:30                     GBP                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower levels. MACD which has formed a negative divergence signal suggests the index to extend its losses in short-term, towards the bottom level of the channel.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.60, 96.20

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance of 1.2805. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains towards the target of 1.2895.

Resistance level: 1.2895, 1.2955

Support level: 1.2805, 1.2690

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.

Resistance level: 1.1330, 1.1385

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1240

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 113.30. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the target at 112.60.

Resistance level: 112.95, 113.30

Support level: 112.60, 112.10

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the resistance level at 0.7130.

Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150

Support level: 0.7100, 0.7080

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 0.6520. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the target at 0.6540.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575

Support level: 0.6520, 0.6500

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its lsoses after closing below 1.3155.

Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3115

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the target of 1.0095. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0055.

Resistance level: 1.0095, 1.0140

Support level: 1.0055, 1.0025

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 64.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 65.45, 66.10

Support level: 64.80, 64.25

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains after successfully breaking downward trendline.

Resistance level: 1220.25, 1229.05

Support level: 1213.15, 1206.05

31 October 2018               Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar surged amid U.S consumer confidence rose.

The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major rivals has strengthened amid stronger than expected data of U.S Consumer Confidence released yesterday. According to Conference Board (CB), US Consumer Confidence data came in at a level of 137.9 which is higher than economists expected level of 136.0, driven largely a robust labor market. The data indicates that the consumer’ assessment of current conditions remains favorable along with strong economic growth outlook that could persist in short term. Besides, parts of the market participants currently are awaiting for the coming announcement of US data which is significant toward the dollar’s trend in next few days. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.04% to 96.75. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD dipped 0.04% to 1.1340 amid downbeat GDP report from the EU zone that has disappointed investors as the economy grew less than expected in third quarter. According to report, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the quarter of July until September came in at 0.2%, slightly lower than previous reading of 0.4%.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.05% to 66.35 per barrel amid the US sanctions against Iran is around the corner. Next, gold price notched down 0.47% to 1217.35 amid dollar’s recovery.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                  Event

04:15 (1^st)             CAD                        BoC Gov Poloz Speak

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1:  Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 96.80. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the index to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 96.65.

Resistance level: 96.75, 97.45

Support level: 96.65, 96.55

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2695. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2740.

Resistance level: 1.2740, 1.2790

Support level: 1.2695, 1.2665

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1.1335. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1390

Support level: 1.1335, 1.1320

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 113.30. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 113.30.

Resistance level: 113.30, 113.55

Support level: 113.05, 112.80

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7080. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 0.7105.

Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7115

Support level: 0.7080, 0.7055

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.6550. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6550.

Resistance level: 0.6550, 0.6570

Support level: 0.6540, 0.6520

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3105. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3140.

Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3105, 1.3080

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0050. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0030

Resistance level: 1.0050, 1.0090

Support level: 1.0030, 1.0010

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 66.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 67.70.

Resistance level: 67.70, 68.50,

Support level: 66.10, 64.20

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1216.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1216.75.

Resistance level: 1229.40, 1230.05

Support level: 1216.75, 1208.95

31 October 2018                Morning Session Analysis

Greenback at yearly high as consumer confidence climbs.

Greenback stands tall at its highest level of the year after US Consumer Confidence data exceed investors’ expectations for last month. The dollar index was up 0.03% to 96.70, a shy away from its yearly high of 96.86. According to Conference Board, US Consumer Confidence rose to 137.9 in October from 135.3 in September, exceeding economist forecast for a slump to 136.0. The reading was at its highest level in 18 years or since September 2000. Appreciating consumer confidence has further reaffirmed investors expectation for a resilient economic performance as it would spur higher personal spending and inflationary pressure. In addition, the greenback received additional bullish support after pound sterling extended its losses to a 10-week low. Sterling marched on with its backfoot after credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s warned that the UK could suffer long recession If it cut off ties with EU without securing a trade deal. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD was flat at 1.2705.

In the commodities market, crude oil price recovered its losses by 0.15% to $66.37 per barrel. The commodity price dipped in red since yesterday after International Energy Agency Fatih Birol warned that high oil prices could hurt consumers and dent fuel demand during slowing global economic activity. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.08% to $1,222.09 a troy ounce following higher demand for risky assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                 JPY                        BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)

Tentative                 JPY                        BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

Tentative                 JPY                       BoJ Press Conference

04:15 (1^st)             CAD                       BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the upper levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.60, 96.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2690.

Resistance level: 1.2805, 1.2895

Support level: 1.2690, 1.2495

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after receiving bearish pressure from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1330.

Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1330, 1.1240

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended gains following prior breakout from the resistance of 112.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 113.30.

Resistance level: 113.30, 113.85

Support level: 112.95, 112.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a rising wedge while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking the bottom level of the wedge.

Resistance level: 0.7080, 0.7100

Support level: 0.7055, 0.7025

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 0.6575. MACD which begin to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6540.

Resistance level: 0.6575, 0.6610

Support level: 0.6540, 0.6520

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the channel.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3010

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF extended gains while currently testing at the resistance level of 1.0055. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards after successfully breaking the target of 1.0055.

Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0095

Support level: 1.0025, 0.9960

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a descending triangle formation. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below the strong support near 66.10.

Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55

Support level: 66.10, 64.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of the ascending channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below 1220.25.

Resistance level: 1229.05, 1237.00

Support level: 1220.25, 1213.15

30 October 2018               Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar surged, supported by safe haven bid

Dollar index rose against its six major peers on Tuesday amid rising trade tensions and fears of slowdown in global economic growth, caused investors to shy away from risky assets and cushioned the greenback as one of the safe haven assets. According to Bloomberg, United States is preparing to announce tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports by early December if the talk on next month between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jin Ping fail to resolve trade issue between both nations. In addition, the data of Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending which announced on yesterday came in at 0.2% and 0.4% respectively has triggered a wave of bullish momentum toward US Dollar as it portrays resilient consumer spending in the United States. As of writing, US Dollar rose 0.10% to 96.40. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD notched up 0.11% to 1.2805 amid the announcement of Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) escalating its growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.6% for 2019 and predicting that UK will have a lower deficit of 1.4% in the coming year. This announcement successfully generated strong ‘driving force’ toward the sterling pound and was traded higher since Asian session.

On the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.75% to $67.20 per barrel amid while investor eyes on the US sanctions against Iran which take into effect on 4^th of November.  Next, gold price dipped 0.15% to $1227.40 a troy ounce as it depressed by higher demand of US Dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:30                     CAD                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar Index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.30. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 96.30.

Resistance level: 96.45, 96.55

Support level: 96.30, 96.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2790. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.2835.

Resistance level: 1.2835, 1.2875.

Support level: 1.2790, 1.2690

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1370. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1.1390.

Resistance level: 1.1390, 1.1410

Support level: 1.1370, 1.1335

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 112.50. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.80.

Resistance level: 112.80, 113.05

Support level: 112.50, 112.10

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.7075. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 0.7105.

Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7140

Support level: 0.7075, 0.7055

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.6550. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.6550.

Resistance level: 0.6550, 0.6565

Support level: 0.6535, 0.6520

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3135. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3080.

Resistance level: 1.3135, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3015

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.0005. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0050

Support level: 1.0005, 0.9970

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 67.15. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gain after successfully breakout the resistance level at 67.15.

Resistance level: 67.15, 67.70

Support level: 66.60, 66.10

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded lower prior following breakout from the previous support level at 1229.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1221.35.

Resistance level: 1229.40, 1230.05

Support level: 1221.35, 1208.95

30 October 2018                Morning Session Analysis

US propels as tariffs against China looms.

Greenback rebounds against other major peers on Monday following reports that the United States are planning to initiate more tariffs against China goods. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.09% to 96.37 during Asian trading session. According to Bloomberg, US is currently preparing to announce tariffs against remaining Chinese imports by early December if the talks between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on next month falters. Although the news has sparked a selloff in risky assets, the demand for safe-havens remained subdued as investors places optimistic sentiment upon the US dollar and their economy. In addition, the dollar was further supported after data showed that the US Consumer Spending rose for the seventh consecutive month, reaffirming market’s expectation that a strong consumer demand would help to support overall US economy. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.04% to 1.1377 while investors will now ponder upon the submission of a revamped Italian budget to the EU Commission later today.

As for commodities, crude oil price falters by 0.05% to $66.56 per barrel while investors weigh the severity of impact upon the enactment of US sanctions against the Iran this coming weekend. Otherwise, gold price recovered its losses by 0.07% to $1,230.25 a troy ounce albeit remained under pressure due to strong dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:30                     CAD                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the index to extend its gains in short-term, towards the target of 96.60.

Resistance level: 96.60, 97.00

Support level: 96.20, 95.95

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 1.2810, 1.2860

Support level: 1.2755, 1.2680

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.

Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1360, 1.1320

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. Although MACD has formed a golden cross signal, a break above this trendline is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 112.45, 112.70

Support level: 112.15, 111.90

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7055. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7130

Support level: 0.7055, 0.7025

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575

Support level: 0.6500, 0.6460

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at 1.3115. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.3115.

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3210

Support level: 1.3115, 1.3080

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level of 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 1.0000, 0.9975

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55

Support level: 66.10, 64.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the support level of 1229.05. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below 1229.05.

Resistance level: 1237.00, 1243.25

Support level: 1229.05, 1220.25

29 October 2018               Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar rebound from Friday losses.

US dollar managed to recover part of its losses against a basket of its major currencies on Monday after tumbling last Friday due to market dissatisfaction towards US GDP data. Last Friday, although the United States GDP data showed that the overall economic growth slowed less than expected with 3.5% versus forecast of 3.3%. However, economist remained dissatisfied with the results as it indicates slower economic pace ahead. Nevertheless, rising trade tension between US and China while US Federal Reserve which continues its plan to tighten monetary policy has cushioned the greenback as one of the safe haven assets. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.12% to 96.20. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD was traded flat while market participants keep an eye on the latest annual speech from the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer later today. Traders are tensing ahead of the UK’s budgetary outlook in case Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond plays too much defensive cards and planned funding solutions in the face of a potential no-deal Brexit. As of writing, sterling pound rose 0.01% to 1.2830 against U.S Dollar.

On the commodities market, crude oil price hover at $67.50 per barrel while investor eye on the imminent US sanctions against Iran which will take into effect this coming Sunday. Next, gold price dipped 0.03% to $1233.05 per troy ounce amid dollar’s recovery.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     GBP                        Autumn Budget

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level at 96.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 96.30.

Resistance level: 96.30, 96.45

Support level: 96.15, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2775. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 1.2280.

Resistance level: 1.2880, 1.2955

Support level: 1.2775, 1.2690

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1410. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1385.

Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1430

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1360

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 111.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.05.

Resistance level: 112.05, 112.20

Support level: 111.80, 111.40

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7100. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout from 0.7100.

Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7145

Support level: 0.7065, 0.7045

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.6535. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6560.

Resistance level: 0.6560, 0.6590

Support level: 0.6535, 0.6510

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher prior following rebound from the support level at 1.3070. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout from 1.3110.

Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3145

Support level: 1.3070, 1.2995

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.9980. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 0.9970.

Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0050

Support level: 0.9970, 0.9925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 67.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 66.10.

Resistance level: 67.70, 68.50

Support level: 66.10, 64.20

GOLD_, H1: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1234.85. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1231.10.

Resistance level: 1234.85, 1237.50

Support level: 1231.10, 1227.55

Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 29 – November 2   

29 October 2018                Morning Session Analysis

Trump tax cuts begins to wear off?

US dollar recovered some losses on Monday while investors continues to scrutinize upcoming economic data from the United States to gauge its performance. The dollar index was up 0.09% to 96.15 as of writing. Last Friday, the currency languished near sessions low, retracing from prior two months high as analysts downplayed the stronger third quarter economic growth. According to Commerce Department, GDP for the third quarter came in at 3.5%, significantly higher than economists’ forecast of 3.3%. However, US bond yields fell following its release as a deeper look into the report signaled diminished growth momentum as US President Donald Trump tax cuts initiatives wears off. Analysts postulate that the boost from tax cuts and deregulation is fading quickly as consumer spending were likely to have reach its maximum capacity. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD tumbled down 0.06% to 1.1395 this morning. The currency failed to initiate any further recovery as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi failed to convince investors that they would pursue further monetary policy tightening during next year as political and economic uncertainty rises.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.30% to $67.70 per barrel while investors place their attention over looming US sanction against Iran which is set to be enforced on November 4^th. Otherwise, gold price tumbled down 0.11% to $1,232.21 a troy ounce following a rebound on the US dollar this morning.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     GBP                       Autumn Budget

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the resistance of 96.20.

Resistance level: 96.20, 96.60

Support level: 95.95, 95.55

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.2810.

Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2910

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2755

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support near 1.1385.

Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1485

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1360

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior closure above the 20-MA line (red). MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 112.15.

Resistance level: 112.15, 112.45

Support level: 111.90, 111.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7100. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7055.

Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7130

Support level: 0.7055, 0.7025

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after retracing from the trendline.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575

Support level: 0.6500, 0.6460

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3080. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3115.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3080, 1.3010

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0000.

Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9975, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which continues to illustrate upward signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the resistance level at 68.55.

Resistance level: 68.55, 69.30

Support level: 67.35, 66.10

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing at the bottom level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 1233.30, 1238.35

Support level: 1230.00, 1225.00

26 Oktober 2018                                Analisis Sesi Petang

Dollar didagang rata sementara pelabur menunggu data GDP.

Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan rata selepas mencapai paras tinggi dua bulan pada semalam dan para pelabur kini sedang menunggu data GDP AS untuk suku ketiga pada lewat malam nanti. Data tersebut amat penting terhadap dolar kerana ia boleh menjejaskan masa depan Dasar Kewangan Rizab Persekutuan. Ahli ekonomi menjangkakan data tersebut untuk memberi bacaan sebanyak 3.3%, lebih rendah berbanding data terdahulunya sebanyak 4.5%. Sekiranya data GDP adalah lebih rendah daripada jangkaan tersebut, sentimen yang negatif akan diwujudkan dan momentum bullish pada dolar akan terjejas. Dolar AS telah menyusut sebanyak 0.03% ke 96.35 semasa penulisan. Dalam berita lain, pasangan EUR/USD telah menurun sebanyak 0.11% ke 1.1365 akibat kegagalan keputusan dasar kewangan Bank Pusat Euro (ECB) dalam mencetuskan sentimen optimis semasa sidang media pada semalam. Semasa sidang tersebut, Presiden ECB Mario Draghi telah menyatakan bahawa pandangan ekonomi semasa telah tertakluk kepada risiko dari krisis bajet Itali dan juga masalah Brexit.

Bagi pasaran komoditi, harga minyak mentah telah menurun sebanyak 0.18% ke $66.75 setong walaupun gabenor OPEC Saudi Arab menyatakan bahawa mereka akan mengurangkan pembekalan minyak akibat kelebihan bekalan dan inventori untuk pasaran minyak. Di samping itu, harga emas telah menyusut sebanyak 0.02% ke $1231.75 se troy auns akibat kekukuhan dolar.

Pasaran Tutup Hari Ini

Masa                     Pasaran                 Acara

N/A

Acara Kemuncak Hari Ini

Masa                     Pasaran                 Acara

22:00                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Data Ekonomi Kemuncak Hari Ini

Analisis Teknikal

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan lantunan dari tahap sokongan di 96.30. MACD yang menunjukkan formasi silang kematian mencadangkan dolar untuk didagang dengan lebih rendah ke arah tahap sokongan 96.30 untuk jangka masa pendek.

Tahap rintangan: 96.45, 96.55

Tahap sokongan: 96.30, 96.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah berikutan dengan pengunduran dari tahap rintangan 1.2820. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bullish serta formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi ke arah tahap rintangan 1.2910.

Tahap rintangan: 1.2910, 1.2955

Tahap sokongan: 1.2805, 1.2690

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 1.1385. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bullish serta formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi ke arah tahap rintangan di 1.1385 untuk jangka masa pendek.

Tahap rintangan: 1.1385, 1.1430

Tahap sokongan: 1.1360, 1.1320

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan di 112.20. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bearish dan formasi silang kematian mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan di 112.05.

Tahap rintangan: 112.20, 112.45

Tahap sokongan: 112.05, 111.80

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 0.7045. MACD yang menunjukkan formasi silang kematian mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan 0.7025.

Tahap rintangan: 0.7045, 0.7065

Tahap sokongan: 0.7025, 0.6995

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah berikutan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 0.6495. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bearish mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan 0.6455.

Tahap rintangan: 0.6495, 0.6535

Tahap sokongan: 0.6455, 0.6425

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara menguji pada tahap rintangan 1.3115. MACD yang menunjukkan formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya sekira ia berjaya untuk memecahkan pada tahap rintangan tersebut.

Tahap rintangan: 1.3115, 1.3185

Tahap sokongan: 1.3050, 1.3000

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi berikutan dengan pemecahan dari tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 0.9980. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bullish dan formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan 1.0010.

Tahap rintangan: 1.0010, 1.0050

Tahap sokongan: 0.9980, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H1: Harga minyak mentah telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 67.05. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bearish dan formasi silang kematian mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya ke arah tahap sokongan di 66.10.

Tahap rintangan: 67.05, 67.45

Tahap sokongan: 66.10, 64.20

GOLD_, H1: Harga emas telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan lantunan dari tahap sokongan di 1229.15. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bullish dan formasi silang emas mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan 1233.05.

Tahap rintangan: 1233.05, 1236.55

Tahap sokongan: 1229.15, 1225.75

26 October 2018               Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar flatten while investors keeping eyes on GDP

Dollar index was traded flat after hitting two-month highs on yesterday as investors are still waiting for the third quarter U.S. GDP data due later today. This data is considered crucial towards US dollar as it could affect the future path of U.S Federal Reserve Monetary Policy. Economist forecasted the data to come in at 3.3% which slightly lower than the previous month with 4.5%. If the GDP actual reading came in lower than expectation, it will definitely create negative sentiment toward the market and it also implies that dollar-bulls might be jeopardized. US Dollar notched down 0.03% to 96.35 as of writing. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD tumbled 0.11% to 1.1365 amid European Central Bank (ECB) failed to spur the market following the conclusion of monetary policy decision on yesterday. During press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a slightly dovishness, admitting that the current economic projection contains risks that stems from Italy budget crisis and Brexit conundrum.

On the commodities market, crude oil price notched down 0.18% to $66.75 per barrel although Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor said that the market may become oversupplied soon and while signaling to cut supplies in the coming months. Next, gold price plunged 0.02% to $1231.75 per troy ounce amid dollar’s recovery.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                      Market                 Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                      Market                 Event

22:00                     EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.30. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggest the index to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 96.30.

Resistance level: 96.45, 96.55

Support level: 96.30, 96.15

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2820. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.2910.

Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2955

Support level: 1.2805, 1.2690

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 1.1385. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.1385.

Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1430

Support level: 1.1360, 1.1320

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 112.20. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 112.05.

Resistance level: 112.20, 112.45

Support level: 112.05, 111.80.

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 0.7045. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7025.

Resistance level: 0.7045, 0.7065

Support level: 0.7025, 0.6995

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 0.6495. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6455.

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6535

Support level: 0.6455, 0.6425

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.3115. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain after successfully breakout.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3050, 1.3000

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.9980. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend the gains toward the resistance level at 1.0010.

Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0050

Support level: 0.9980, 0.9940

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 67.05. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 66.10.

Resistance level: 67.05, 67.45

Support level: 66.10, 64.20

GOLD_, H1: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1229.15. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 1233.05.

Resistance level: 1233.05, 1236.55

Support level: 1229.15, 1225.75

26 October 2018                Morning Session Analysis

Euro slumps as ECB paints a darker picture.

Greenback rose to two-months high on yesterday while shrugging off bearish US economic data. The dollar index was up 0.05% to 96.30 during early Asian trading session. The US dollar notched its second weekly gain even though its economic data showed some weakness in labor market and slowing momentum of business spending. According to the US Commerce Department, Core Durable Goods Orders rose only 0.1% for last month, missing economist forecast for a 0.5% rise. In addition, US Department of Labor reported that the initial jobless claims for last week increased by 5,000 to 215,000, higher than economist forecast of 214,000. Both data which showed lower than expected reading fail to cap the rise in greenback as pound sterling and euro extended its losses on yesterday. In the EU front, European Central Bank maintains their policy and interest rates unchanged as expected by most of market participants. However, the single common currency was hit with bearish momentum following dovish outlook from the ECB with regards to current underlying risk. On yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledge in a press conference that the current economic outlook was dampened as he took note of recent economic data which was “weaker” than expected while highlighting risks from Italy and global trade uncertainty. As of writing, EUR/USD ticked down 0.02% to 1.1372.

In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.31% to $66.64 per barrel. The commodity remained under pressure as investors outlook towards the market turn bleak following Saudi Arabia’s pledge to resolve supply issue that arises from Iran’s sanction. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.03% to $1,231.92 a troy ounce following a rebound in greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:00                     EUR                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.20. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the index to extend its gains towards the direction of resistance level at 96.60.

Resistance level: 96.60, 97.00

Support level: 96.20, 95.95

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 1.2810. However, MACD which illustrate the imminent formation of golden cross suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2910

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2755

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses towards the direction of support level near 1.3200.

Resistance level: 1.1385, 1.1445

Support level: 1.1320, 1.1240

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the 60-MA line (green). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line.

Resistance level: 112.45, 112.70

Support level: 112.15, 111.90

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a descending triangle following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate the formation of death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the support of 0.7055.

Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130

Support level: 0.7055, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the support of 0.6500.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575

Support level: 0.6500, 0.6460

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level at 1.3080.

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3115

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of ascending channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the target at 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 1.0000, 0.9975

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate the formation of bearish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-MA line (green).

Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55

Support level: 66.10, 64.90

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the lower levels. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level of the triangle.

Resistance level: 1233.30, 1238.35

Support level: 1230.00, 1225.00

25 October 2018                Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar flat ahead of economic data.  

Dollar index edged lower by 0.03% to 95.98 during early European trading session while investors waits for US Core Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales data. Yesterday’s New Home Sales data that missed the expectation did not have much impact towards the dollar. Overall, the dollar is still continuing its bullish trend as investors awaits positive sentiment from today’s data to further boost the price of dollar. In other news, demand for safe haven asset such as Japanese Yen was increasing as uncertainty spirals in the US economy where Democrats such as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton received bomb threats and investors fear of a political violence. The incident caused panic for investors as they flew to safe haven markets. Pair of USD/JPY fell by 0.20% to 112.00 as of writing.

As for commodities, crude oil price edged up by 0.12% to $66.45 per barrel. The crude oil market was influenced by negative sentiment this week as investors worry that the shortfall supply from Iran’s sanction will be supported by Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, gold price increased by 0.30% to $1,237.90 a troy ounce following higher demand for its safe haven properties amid uncertainties in the forex market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.30. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 95.80.

Resistance level: 96.30, 96.60

Support level: 95.80, 95.20

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.2905. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2905, 1.2935

Support level: 1.2855, 1.2800

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1385. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1445.

Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1490

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1350

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 112.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 112.40, 112.75

Support level: 112.00, 111.70

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7080. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7080, 0.7105

Support level: 0.7055, 0.7030

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6500. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6540.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6565

Support level: 0.6500, 0.6460

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace near the resistance level 1.3065. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3000.

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3115

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9980. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9955.

Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9955, 0.9920

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 66.10. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 67.50.

Resistance level: 67.50, 68.70

Support level: 66.10, 64.90

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1238.50. MACD which display bullish bias suggest the commodity to extend its gains after a breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1238.50, 1241.75

Support level: 1233.50, 1229.35

25 October 2018                Morning Session Analysis

Dollar sky-high as regional risk lingers.

US dollar remains resilient near 9-weeks high while a surge in Canadian dollar capped off any substantial gains on the currency. In the US front, Census Bureau reported that the New Home Sales for September came in lower than expected with only 553K versus forecast of 627K. However, the bearish data failed to hold off dollar-bulls as other major currencies such as pound sterling and euro slumped sharply on yesterday. For the UK, investors were unnerved as Brexit talks came to a stall just five months until Brexit cut-off date is due. On the other hand, market participant’s sentiment turned sour towards the EU as European Union took an unprecedented step to reject Italy’s budget on Tuesday following concerns over the impact of increased spending on an already high national debt level. On the other hand, Canadian dollar received higher demand since yesterday following Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to increase their interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. In addition, BoC has also dropped the reference to “gradual” rate hike, signaling a more aggressive plan to tighten their monetary policy as compared to prior. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.02% to 96.02 while USD/CAD was down 0.16% to 1.3035.

As for commodities, crude oil price was down by 0.21% to $66.14 per barrel after EIA reported a large increase in last week’s crude oil inventories by 6.346 million barrels versus forecast of only 3.694 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price surged 0.17% to $1,236.41 a troy ounce following bomb threat headline across the United States which target conservative vitriol such as Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                       ECB Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 2 months high. MACD which begins to form a death cross formation suggests the index to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30

Support level: 95.75, 95.50

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2860. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2955

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2810

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1385. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1485

Support level: 1.1385, 1.1320

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the level of 111.90.

Resistance level: 112.15, 112.45

Support level: 111.90, 111.60

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7055. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130

Support level: 0.7055, 0.7000

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6500. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575

Support level: 0.6500, 0.6460

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3115

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 67.35. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down after breaking the support level at 66.10.

Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55

Support level: 66.10, 64.90

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further up after breaking the top level of the channel.

Resistance level: 1238.35, 1248.00

Support level: 1230.00, 1221.00

24 Oktober 2018                                Analisis Sesi Petang

Dolar didagang dengan rata walaupun Wall Street menurun.

Dolar AS berjaya untuk mengekalkan kekuatannya berbanding dengan enam pasangan mata wang utama walaupun pasaran stok AS menutup pasaran dengan lebih rendah. Prestasi Wall Street yang lemah telah mengurangkan permintaan terhadap aset yang berisiko akibat pertumbuhan ekonomi AS kelihatan merosot dan hal ini telah mendorong kepada kenaikan permintaan terhadap aset selamat seperti Yen Japan dan juga emas. Walaupun dolar juga dikenalkan sebagai aset selamat, tetapi kelemahan pasaran AS telah mendorong kepada momentum negatif indeks dolar berbanding dengan mata wang lain. Namun, sentimen negatif masih jauh sementara para pelabur menunggu pembebasan data New Home Sales untuk bulan September. Dolar AS telah menyusut sebanyak 0.03% ke 95.65 semasa penulisan. Dalam berita lain, pasangan CAD/USD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah sebanyak 0.08% ke 1.3075 sementara para pelabur menumpukan perhatian mereka kepada keputusan kadar faedah oleh Bank Pusat Kanada pada lewat hari ini. Walaupun inflasi domestik dan juga data Retail Sales Kanada mempunyai bacaan yang lebih suram, tetapi ahli ekonomi masih menjangkakan Bank Pusat Kanada untuk menaikkan kadar faedah sebanyak 25 mata asas ke 1.75%.

Bagi pasaran komoditi, harga minyak mentah menokok sebanyak 0.79% ke $66.55 setong di tengah-tengah keputusan Saudi Arab untuk mengimbangkan kekurangan bekalan minyak akibat sekatan Iran. Di samping itu, harga emas menaik sebanyak 0.14% ke $1231.75.

Pasaran Tutup Hari Ini

Masa                     Pasaran Acara

N/A

Acara Kemuncak Hari Ini

Masa                     Pasaran Acara

22:00                     CAD                        BoC Monetary Policy Report

23:15                     CAD                        BoC Press Conference

Data Ekonomi Kemuncak Hari Ini

Analisis Teknikal

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Indeks dolar telah didagang dengan lebih rendah sementara menguji berdekatan garisan trend menaik. MACD yang menunjukkan permulaan momentum bullish mencadangkan dolar untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 95.75.

Tahap rintangan: 95.75, 95.90
Tahap sokongan: 95.50, 95.20

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pengunduran dari garisan trend menurun. MACD yang memaparkan permulaan momentum bullish mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi ke arah garisan trend tersebut.

Tahap rintangan: 1.3015, 1.3065

Tahap sokongan: 1.2955, 1.2905

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan lantunan dari tahap sokongan 1.1455. MACD yang menunjukkan permulaan momentum menaik mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi ke arah tahap rintangan 1.1490 untuk masa jangka pendek.

Tahap rintangan: 1.1490, 1.1530

Tahap sokongan: 1.1445, 1.1430

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 112.40. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bullish serta formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya ke arah tahap rintangan di 112.70.

Tahap rintangan: 112.70, 112.90

Tahap sokongan: 112.40, 112.20

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi sementara menguji pada tahap rintangan 0.7100. MACD yang menunjukkan permulaan momentum bullish dan formasi silang emas mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan keuntungannya sekira ia berjaya untuk memecahkan pada tahap rintangan tersebut.

Tahap rintangan: 0.7100, 0.7145

Tahap sokongan: 0.7065, 0.7045

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah berikutan dengan pemecahan dari tahap rintangan sebelumnya di 0.6580. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi ke arah tahap rintangan di 0.6580.

Tahap rintangan: 0.6580, 0.6605

Tahap sokongan: 0.6535, 0.6495

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD telah didagang dengan lebih rendah sementara menguji pada tahap sokongan di 1.3075. MACD yang memaparkan momentum bearish serta formasi silang kematian mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk melanjutkan kerugiannya sekira ia berjaya untuk memecahkan pada tahap sokongan tersebut.

Tahap rintangan: 1.3120, 1.3185

Tahap sokongan: 1.3075, 1.3050

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF kekal didagang di dalam saluran sisi berikutan dengan lantunan dari tahap rendah. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bullish yang berkurangan mencadangkan pasangan ini untuk didagang dengan lebih rendah ke arah tahap sokongan 0.9940.

Tahap rintangan: 0.9975, 1.0050

Tahap sokongan: 0.9940, 0.9925

CrudeOIL, H4: Harga minyak mentah telah didagang dengan lebih rendah susulan dengan pemecahan dari tahap sokongan sebelumnya di 67.35. MACD yang menunjukkan momentum bearish yang berkurangan mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk didagang dengan lebih tinggi ke arah tahap rintangan 67.35.

Tahap rintangan: 67.35, 68.50

Tahap sokongan: 66.20, 64.20

GOLD_, H4: Harga emas telah didagang dengan lebih tinggi susulan dengan lantunan dari tahap sokongan 1229.50. MACD yang memaparkan momentum menaik yang berkurangan mencadangkan komoditi ini untuk didagang dengan lebih rendah ke arah tahap sokongan 1229.50.

Tahap rintangan: 1237.55, 1244.75

Tahap sokongan: 1229.50, 1221.35