180418 Daily Analysis
18 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebounded. How far can it sustain?
Dollar index was traded higher against its major peers by 0.20% to 89.21 as of writing following the release of optimistic construction data in the region and hawkish statement by San Francisco Fed president John Williams. Overnight, Greenback managed to pare its losses after the Commerce Department revealed an increase of U.S. homebuilding in March by 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.319 million units which is much better than the expected reading for an increase to 1.270 million. In addition, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams released a hawkish statement on yesterday by urging the U.S. central bank to increase interest rates gradually as inflation creep towards Fed’s target of 2%. On the contrary, EUR/USD pared its gains by 0.26% to $1.2368 following a disappointing ZEW Economic Sentiment data that missed its forecast reading of 7.3, last stood at only 1.9, pointing to decreased market optimism towards economic outlook for the Euro zone.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.50% to $66.78 per barrel following American Petroleum Institute (API) report that shown a fall in U.S. crude inventories by 1 million barrels to 428 million barrels. Also, risk of global supply disruptions over increasing conflicts in Syria, renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran and falling output following political and economic crisis in Venezuela provide additional support to the rise of the commodity price. Otherwise, gold price fell 0.21% to $1344.43 a troy ounce following recent gains of the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
22:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
03:15 (Thu) USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
04:15 (Thu) USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – Trade Balance (Mar) | 3B | 498B | 797B |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 2.7% | 2.7% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.306M | -0.189M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 0.458M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1.4370 and the pair is currently testing the support level at 1.4290. MACD that displays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.4370, 1.4560
Support level: 1.4290, 1.4230
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.2350. However, MACD that portrays decreasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance at 200-MA line. MACD that portrays a positive divergence would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 107.50.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 66.60. MACD that portrays decreasing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains if candlestick successfully gains support above the 50.0 Fibonacci level.
Resistance level: 67.40, 69.50
Support level: 66.60, 66.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1348.35. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the safe-haven asset price.
Resistance level: 1348.35, 1354.75
Support level: 1340.85, 1333.15
170418 Daily Analysis
17 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Trump resumes his aggressive tweet, endless fall for the Dollar?
Dollar index was traded lower against a basket of major currencies by 0.39% to 89.04 as of writing following heightened geopolitical risks when an accusation was made by U.S. President Donald Trump towards China and Russia of currency devaluation. Overnight, the Greenback has failed to pare its losses despite retail sales data showing a better-than-expected reading of 0.6% versus 0.4% seen. The Greenback sell-off continues instead after the Empire State Manufacturing Index revealed an actual reading of 15.80 versus the economists’ forecast of 18.80. All in all, the Greenback remained under pressure as investors await further development when U.S has announced to impose economic sanctions on Russia prior to its involvement in Syria’s use of chemical weapons. On the contrary, GBP/USD rose 0.58% to its 10-month highs at $1.4343, buoyed by optimistic market sentiment towards the Bank of England (BoE) to increase its interest rates as soon as next month.
In the commodities market, crude oil price stabilized around $66.50 per barrel following market participants mulled over Syria related news while shifting their attention to the US sanctions on Russia and Iran. Otherwise, gold price extended gains by 0.07% to $1348.42 a troy ounce following the softening of the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
21:15 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
22:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
23:00 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
05:40 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 10:00 | CNY – GDP (YoY) (Q1) | 6.8% | 6.8% | – |
| 10:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) | 7.2% | 6.4% | – |
| 12:30 | JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | 4.1% | 4.0% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Feb) | 2.8% | 3.0% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Mar) | 9.2K | 13.3K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) | 168.0K | 55.0K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP- Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 4.3% | 4.3% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) | 5.1 | -0.8 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Mar) | 1.321M | 1.330M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (Mar) | 1.236M | 1.269M | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -1.0% | 1.1% | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) | 0.9% | 0.3% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.758M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.4290. However, death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1.4370, 1.4560
Support level: 1.4290, 1.4230
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher after gaining its support at 1.2350. MACD that portrays ongoing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if candlestick successfully closes above resistance level at 1.2380.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 107.50 and the pair is currently testing the support level at 107.00. MACD that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 66.10. Golden-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains if breakout at the 50.0 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 66.60, 67.40
Support level: 66.10, 65.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1346.40. MACD that portrays ongoing bullish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1354.75.
Resistance level: 1354.75, 1361.15
Support level: 1346.40, 1340.90
160418 Weekly Analysis
16 April 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: April 16 – 20
Market Review (Forex): April 9 – 13
US dollar recovered slightly during late Friday trading on last week although gains remained capped due to bearish economic data and jittery trade relationship between the United States and China. The dollar index notched up 0.02% while ended the week at 89.77.
In the economic front, US Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) shows that job openings for the month of February fell to 6.05 million, missing economist expectation of 6.11 million. In addition, the University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment fell to a three-month low of 97.8 versus 100.6, indicating a scaled back optimism among consumers towards future economic outlook of the country.
In the global setting, the White House was reported to ramp up trade pressure upon China after threatening to block Chinese technology investment in the United States. In addition to that, the administration will also release details as early as next week on the list of Chinese products which will be subjected to a tariff of 25% worth at least $100 billion. Such escalation could eventually lead to trade war which brings no benefits to either side while suppressing global economic growth and trade patterns.
However, the currency received some minor support from the downside over the backdrop of optimistic signal as portrayed by the FOMC meeting minutes for the month of March. According to several officials, they believed that the US economy will continue to firm up in the coming months and that inflation will rise towards their targeted reading of 2% soon. Otherwise, they reiterated to follow through their plans to have three rate hikes in the year of 2018.
JOLTS Job Openings
—– Forecast
US job openings came in at only 6.05 million for the month of February.
US Consumer Sentiment
—– Forecast
US Consumer Confidence came in lower at only 97.8 versus 101.4 for the month of April.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY rose 0.09% and last quoted around 107.41.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD recovered slightly by 0.02% to $1.2330. The single common currency remained under pressure following the release of European Central Bank’s meeting minutes last Thursday which shows that policymakers are concerned over the risk of full-blown trade war between the US and China and potentially harmful impact of a stronger Euro.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling extended its gains by 0.08% to $1.4239 against the US dollar.
Market Review (Commodities): April 9 – 13
GOLD
Safe-haven commodity – gold received tremendous demand during late Friday trading as underlying geopolitical tension and US-China trade wars continues to spur higher risk aversion among investors. Price of the yellow metal rose $10.37 or 0.78% while ended the week at $1,345.46 a troy ounce.
Earlier, White House has announced their plans to ramp up trade pressure upon China that could escalate current trade tension while brewing for an imminent trade war. In addition, safe-haven continued to rise after Russia accused the United Kingdom of staging the reported chemical attack in Syria.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled higher during last Friday due to ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East while global inventories which shows significant decline has offset fears over rising US oil output. Price of the black commodity tacks up 0.28% while closing the weekly trade at $67.31 per barrel.
According to the monthly report released by International Energy Agency (IEA), data showed that the glut in oil supplies has mostly diminished, shrunken by nine-tenth since the beginning of 2017 due to continuous supply cuts and rising demand. The oil cut pact, initiated by members and non-members of OPEC is expected to end later this year but there is growing speculation that it might be extended into next year. OPEC will be meeting in June to decide their next course of action.
Likewise, crude oil price was further supported by geopolitical tension between United States and Syria earlier this week after US President Donald Trump threatens to launch a missile attack to retaliate suspected chemical weapons used upon civilians by rebel groups. An attack on Syria may disrupt their oil production that could help to ease some pressure on global supply glut.
Weekly Outlook: April 16 – 20
For the week ahead, investors will place their attention upon several major economic data such as CPI and jobs market report that will be released by the United Kingdom and EU. Likewise, US report on retail sales will also be in focus as investors gauge overall consumer spending which could help to propel regional inflationary pressure.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: April 16 – 20
| Monday, April 16 |
Data CHF – PPI (MoM) (Mar) USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) USD – Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, April 17 |
Data CNY – GDP (YoY) (Q1) CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Feb) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Mar) GBP – Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) GBP – Unemployment Rate (Feb) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr) USD – Building Permits (Mar) USD – Housing Starts (Mar) CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Feb) USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes USD – FOMC Member Williams Speaks USD – FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
|
| Wednesday, April 18 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock JPY – Trade Balance (Mar) GBP – CPI (YoY) (Mar) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events CAD – BoC Rate Statement CAD – BoC Monetary Policy Report
|
| Thursday, April 19 |
Data NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q1) AUD – Employment Change (Mar) AUD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) USD – Philly Fed Employment (Apr) CAD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Events USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks USD – FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
|
|
Friday, April 20
|
Data JPY – Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Mar) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – FOMC Member Mester Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: April 16 – 20
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the strong resistance near 90.00. Both MA line which began to broaden downwards suggests the index to extend its losses in short-term following a successful closure below the support level at 89.40.
Resistance level: 90.00, 90.65
Support level: 89.40, 88.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing at the strong resistance level at 1.4240. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward signal may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, a successful break above could indicate further bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1.4240, 1.4430
Support level: 1.4000, 1.3800
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY extended gains following prior closure above the 60-MA line (green). Both MA line and MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of resistance level near 108.40.
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70
Support level: 105.95, 105.45
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remained under pressure following prior retrace from the mid-level of sideways channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retracement signal from the overbought region suggests the pair to extend its losses in the event of a closure below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2340, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2200, 1.2000
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while recently rebounded from the 20-MA line (red). Such price action suggests short-term bullish bias for the commodity price to extend its gains, towards the direction of resistance level at 1353.70. However, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1353.70, 1366.00
Support level: 1340.00, 1325.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending wedge while recently retraced from the top level. Diminishing upward momentum from MACD histogram may suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term following a closure below the support level at 66.30.
Resistance level: 69.10, 71.50
Support level: 66.30, 63.75
130418 Daily Analysis
13 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar regains strength after Trump backtracked his aggressive stance.
Dollar index was traded higher against a weighted basket of major currencies by 0.30% to 89.43 as of writing following easing of tensions between the U.S. and Syria despite the release of weaker economic data in the region. Overnight, Greenback rebounded from its session low after U.S. President Donald Trump toned down his threats of military action in Syria, stating that the military strike could come “very soon, or not soon at all”. His tweet which has backed away from his aggressive stance earlier kept the dollar on higher ground, erasing some of its losses following the release of initial jobless claims that shown a reduce of 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 last week which has missed the expected reading for a drop to 231,000. On the contrary, EUR/USD was down 0.41% to 1.2323 after policymakers expressed their worry over the potential trade-war risk with the U.S. as well as stronger Euro that could cast a harmful impact to the economy in the European zone.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded lower by 0.9% to $66.78 per barrel following an ease of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Syria. All in all, the losses was expected to be short-term following ongoing efforts made by the OPEC and non-OPEC to cut its global crude supplies. Likewise, gold price extended losses by 1.35% to $1338.35 a troy ounce following cooling of U.S.-Syria geopolitical tensions.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 CrudeOIL IEA Monthly Report
20:00 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
21:00 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
01:00 (Sat) USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:00 | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) | 33.75B | 27.21B | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Trade Balance (Feb) | 19.9B | 20.2B | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) | 6.312M | 6.220M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 101.4 | 100.8 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 808 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following breakout at resistance level 1.4190. However, MACD that displays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower.
Resistance level: 1.4240, 1.4270
Support level: 1.4190, 1.4160
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking support level at 1.2330. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2330, 1.2360
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2280
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 107.00 MACD that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the next resistance level 107.50 is successful.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following retracement from resistance level at 67.40. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the commodity price to extend losses towards the support level at 66.60.
Resistance level: 67.40, 69.50
Support level: 66.60, 66.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior breaking resistance by 200-MA line. It is currently testing to break resistance level at 1337.70. MACD that portrays a golden-cross would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade higher if candlestick successfully closes above the said resistance level.
Resistance level: 1337.70, 1342.50
Support level: 1335.00, 1327.90
120418 Daily Analysis
12 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Is Dollar capable to continue its gains post-FOMC?
Dollar index was traded higher against its major peers by 0.32% to 89.14 as of writing post-FOMC meeting minutes. Despite inflation data pointing to a faster pace of inflation, dollar gains remained under pressure due to ongoing US-Syria geopolitical uncertainty. Overnight, all FOMC members have expressed their supportive votes to increase interest rates gradually up to three times following US core annualized inflation that has increased in lined with market expectation by 0.3% to 2.1% in the month of March, surpassing their 2% target. However, the Greenback’s bullish momentum was rather limited following heightened geopolitical tensions when President Trump said to Moscow to “get ready” for an airstrike on Syria. On the contrary, EUR/USD rose 0.22% to $1.2370 following an optimistic statement by the European Central Bank (ECB)’S president Mario Draghi that inflation in the European zone would hit the central bank’s 2% target this year.
In the commodities market, crude oil price surged by 2.0% to $66.78 per barrel following investors’ concerns over the outlook of U.S. military intervention in Syria which could lead to supply disruptions in the Middle East. Otherwise, gold price retraced by 0.33% to $1351.21 a troy ounce following the wake up of dollar-bull post FOMC.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:20 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
03:00 (Fri) GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
05:00 (Fri) USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:45 | EUR – French CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 1.0% | 1.0% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) | -1.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 242K | 231K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following its failure to break resistance level at 1.4190. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards the support level at 1.4160.
Resistance level: 1.4190, 1.4240
Support level: 1.4160, 1.4120
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1.2380. MACD histogram that displays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before extending its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher after rebound from support level at 106.70. The pair is currently testing resistance level at 106.80. MACD signal line that shows a golden-cross would suggest the pair to continue its bullish momentum if candlestick successfully closes above the said resistance level.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.00
Support level: 106.70, 106.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 66.60. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term losses to retest its previous high.
Resistance level: 67.40, 69.50
Support level: 66.60, 65.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1354.90. Formation of dark cloud cover candlestick pattern and MACD that displays ongoing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses if breakout at the next support level 1350.20 is successful.
Resistance level: 1354.90, 1360.20
Support level: 1350.20, 1347.30
110418 Daily Analysis
11 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bull fails over a siege by other major currencies.
Dollar index fell 0.13% against a basket of major currencies to 89.25 as of writing despite the release of optimistic producer inflation data following pressures by a surge in other major currencies. Overnight, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was released by the Labor Department showing an actual reading with 0.3% increase, much better than the economists’ forecast for 0.1% growth. According to Bank of Montreal, the data has reflected a healthy price pressure at the producer level, thus they will wait for Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to be released due tonight to determine if increasing input costs were passed onto consumers. Nonetheless, the upbeat economic data has failed to lift the Greenback following a rise in other currencies especially Pound Sterling and the Loonie. GBP/USD rose 0.32% to $1.4175 following an optimistic remark made by BoE monetary policy committee member Ian McCafferty that UK interest rates should be increased again in near term without delay. In addition, USD/CAD plunged 0.71% to C$ 1.2598 prior to a strong upsurge in oil prices and ongoing outlooks that a new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal will be announced sooner on 13th April.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rallied 3.30% to its 2-week highs, currently standing at $65.30 per barrel following rising geopolitical tensions between U.S. and Syria that could lead to supply disruptions in the Middle East. Likewise, gold price rose 0.42% to $1342.33 a troy ounce following a fall in the Greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
02:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Apr) | 0.2% | – | -0.6% |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Mar) | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | 1.3% | 0.5% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Trade Balance (Feb) | -12.33B | -11.90B | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -4.617M | 0.246M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -1.116M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher within an ascending wedge after breaking resistance level at 1.4160. However, negative divergence as portrays by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to extend its losses towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 1.4190, 1.4240
Support level: 1.4160, 1.4120
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher within an ascending channel prior breaking resistance level at 1.2350. However, death-cross as formed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses if breakout at the 50.0 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2380, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2350, 1.2330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from trend line of ascending channel. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would indicate the pair to advance its losses towards the support level at 107.00.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 65.85. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 65.85, 66.30
Support level: 65.30, 64.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1342.80. Diminishing bullish momentum as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses if breakout at the trend line is successful.
Resistance level: 1342.80, 1346.90
Support level: 1337.70, 1334.90
100418 Daily Analysis
10 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Trump’s tweet sent dollar to a lower ground.
Dollar index was down 0.26% against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies to 89.47 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism on current trade dispute with China. Overnight, President Trump tweeted about the inequitable practices allowed by predecessors when tariff imposed on exported American cars to China was ten times greater at 25% while Chinese-made vehicle sent to U.S. was only 2.5%. The president’s tweet has thus added investors’ fear over the prospect of trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In addition, USD/CAD was sent to a lower ground by 0.67% to $1.2697 following a rise in the Loonie on a more positive view on NAFTA negotiations and investors’ optimism for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC) this year.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 2.25% to $63.38 a barrel following a healthy market demand and continuous measures taken by OPEC and non-OPEC to restraint market oversupplies. Likewise, gold price extended gains by 0.21% to $1334.91 a troy ounce following ongoing dollar weakness.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Mar) | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Feb) | 5.6% | 1.3% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -3.280M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior gaining its support above 23.6 Fibonacci level. Formation of pin bar candlestick and diminishing bearish momentum as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.4160.
Resistance level: 1.4160, 1.4240
Support level: 1.4110, 1.4080
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1.2330. Negative divergence as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards the support level at 1.2300.
Resistance level: 1.2330, 1.2360
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2280
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher after rebound from support level at 106.60. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards the resistance by descending trend line.
Resistance level: 107.00, 107.50
Support level: 106.60, 106.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was trade higher after breaking resistance level at 63.00. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the trend line of descending channel.
Resistance level: 63.80, 64.20
Support level: 63.00, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 1337.70. MACD histogram that portrays decreasing bullish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term losses to retest its previous high.
Resistance level: 1337.70, 1342.80
Support level: 1334.90, 1327.90
090418 Weekly Analysis
9 April 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: April 9 – 13
Market Review (Forex): April 2 – 6
Greenback fell against a basket of other major currencies last Friday over renewed fears of trade war among two of the world largest economies while mixed US job reports did little to change overall market sentiment. The dollar index recorded a loss of 0.33% while last quoted around 89.92 during late Friday trading.
The currency slid last Friday after China postulate that they are prepared to retaliate “forcefully” against the US if President Donald Trump followed through his plan to impose an additional tariff upon $100 billion worth of imports from China. The protectionism policy suggested by Trump may result in a full-blown trade war that will bring significant setback upon the global economy and future US growth.
Earlier, the greenback received selling pressure following the release of mixed bag Nonfarm Payrolls report by the US Labor Department. Per the report, the US economy has generated fewer than expected jobs for the month of March, with only 103,000 versus 193,000 seen. Likewise, the unemployment hovered unchanged at 4.1%, missing economist expectation to ticked down by 0.1% to 4.0%. However, the losses were limited after wage growth came in within expectation with 0.3%, adding some upward support towards the overall inflationary pressure.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
—– Forecast
Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of March missed economist expectation with only 103,000 jobs created.
US Unemployment Rate
—– Forecast
Unemployment rate for the month of March stabilizes at 4.1%, missing economist expectation to ticked down by 0.1% to 4.0%.
US Average Hourly Earnings
—– Forecast
Wage growth came in within expectation with 0.3% for the month of March.
USD/JPY
US dollar was quoted lower against the Japanese counterpart, down 0.42% to 106.93 over renewed perceived risk towards US-China trade tension.
EUR/USD
Euro extended its gains against the greenback, rising 0.33% while ended the week at $1.2281.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling pushed forward against the dollar, with pairing of GBP/USD advancing 0.61% to $1.4087. The sterling extended its bullish stance since last month after Britain and European Union reached consensus for a Brexit transition deal while Bank of England remained bullish with higher chances for an interest rate hike in the coming months.
Market Review (Commodities): April 2 – 6
GOLD
Gold price nudged up higher during last Friday over the backdrop of heightened US-China trade tension and a weaker US dollar. Price of the precious metal rose $6.76 or 0.51% while ended the week at $1,333.38 a troy ounce. In the event of higher perceived risk in the market, investors’ demand towards the metal will increase in order to safe guard their capital from higher risk of losses. Likewise, a weaker greenback generally enables user of other currency to purchase the asset at a cheaper price as it is denominated in US dollar.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price settled at two-weeks low on Friday after investors fled from risky assets amid escalating trade tension between the United States and China. The precious commodity extended its losses by 2.84% or $1.81 to $61.89 during late Friday trading.
Overall risk aversion in the market escalates following China’s vow to “fight back” forcefully against Trump administration if they follow through to enact additional tariff upon China’s import which amounts to $100 billion. Heightened trade tension between two of the largest economies in the world has sparked worries among investors as it may change overall trade pattern and threatens global economic growth.
Additionally, crude oil price extended its losses after US oilfield services provider Baker Hughes releases bearish report for its oil rig counts. According to the report, the number of US oil drilling rigs rose by 10 to 808, its highest level since March 27 this year. The report has added ongoing fears over rising US output which has reached a record high of 10.46 million barrels per day last week.
Weekly Outlook: April 9 – 13
For the week, investors will continue to keep an eye over trade tension between US and China to gauge overall market sentiment and prospects. Otherwise, European Central Bank and Federal Reserve is set to publish their respective meeting minutes which will provide further signal with regards to future monetary policy outlook.
As for oil traders, they will place their focus on monthly report from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and International Energy Agency to gauge global oil market demand and supply levels.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: April 9 – 13
| Monday, April 9 |
Data EUR – German Trade Balance (Feb) GBP – Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Mar) CAD – Housing Starts (Mar)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, April 10 |
Data AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Mar) USD – PPI (MoM) (Mar) CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Feb)
Events USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
|
| Wednesday, April 11 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Apr) CNY – CPI (YoY) (Mar) CNY – PPI (YoY) (Mar) GBP – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb) GBP – Trade Balance (Feb) USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
| Thursday, April 12 |
Data EUR – French CPI (MoM) (Mar) EUR – Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar) USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
Events USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes CrudeOIL – OPEC Monthly Report EUR – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
|
|
Friday, April 13
|
Data EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) EUR – Trade Balance (Feb) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Feb) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) CrudeOIL – US Bakar Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks CrudeOIL – IEA Monthly Report USD – FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: April 9 – 13
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remains traded within a sideways channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 90.00. MACD histogram which illustrate substantially diminished upward momentum may suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term in the event of a closure below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 90.00, 90.65
Support level: 89.40, 88.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remained traded within an uptrend following prior rebound from the trendline near 1.4000. Diminishing downward momentum as illustrated by MACD histogram suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 1.4240.
Resistance level: 1.4240, 1.4430
Support level: 1.4000, 1.3800
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of descending channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. MACD histogram which illustrate substantial bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70
Support level: 105.95, 105.45
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the lower boundaries. MACD histogram which illustrate substantial downward signal may suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of strong support level at 1.2200.
Resistance level: 1.2340, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2200, 1.2000
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the mid-threshold. Recent retracement from the resistance level of 1340.00 suggests some bearish bias. Thus, a closure below the 20-MA line (red) would provide further clarification. Otherwise, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70
Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level at 66.65 while concurrently formed an ascending triangle formation. MACD histogram which illustrate substantial downward signal may suggests the commodity price to extend its losses in short-term, towards the lower level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 63.75, 66.65
Support level: 60.80, 59.00
060418 Daily Analysis
06 April 2018 Daily Analysis
NFP and Powell’s speech on-eyed; Dollar’s fate to be unveiled.
Dollar index was traded lower against a basket of major currencies by 0.11% to 89.96 following the release of softer economic data and escalation of US-China trade spat. Overnight, initial jobless claims has been reported to increase by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 last week as compared to economists’ forecast for a rise to 225,000. In addition, U.S. trade deficit added further bearish pressure on the Greenback after the gap between imports and exports in the region has been widened from $56.70 billion to $57.60 billion. During Asian trading session today, Greenback extended its bearish momentum attributed to threatening remark by President Trump to consider imposing $100 billion in additional tariffs on China as a revenge towards the party’s unfair retaliation against U.S. trade actions earlier. All in all, dollar-bull is expected to remain limited as market participants await further cues from the release of Non-farm Payroll reports as well as speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell due tonight. On the contrary, GBP/USD pared its losses by 0.10% to $1.4017. The pair received downside pressure following the release of disappointing services PMI in UK, last stood at 51.7 versus the expected reading of 53.9. However, market sentiment towards Pound Sterling remained optimistic following their anticipation towards Bank of England (BoE) to increase its rate by 25bp in the month of May.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down 0.66% to $63.09 per barrel after Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed al-Sada noted that OPEC and non-OPEC should keep momentum in cooperating with regards to oil market management, thus it was still too early to exit the oil cut as recovery in oil prices has not met with an increase in investments. Otherwise, gold price pared its losses by 0.51% to $1332.19 a troy ounce following a weakened dollar amid the release of NFP reports.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:15 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
01:30 (Sat) USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Feb) | 2.0% | 0.3% | -0.9% |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) | 313K | 190K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 4.1% | 4.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Mar) | 15.4K | 20.3K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 5.8% | 5.8% | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Mar) | 59.6 | 60.2 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 798 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.3980. Golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1.4015.
Resistance level: 1.4015, 1.4040
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3945
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from descending trend line. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the 23.6 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2250, 1.2290
Support level: 1.2210, 1.2160
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 107.50. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 107.00.
Resistance level: 107.50, 107.90
Support level: 107.00, 106.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following its failure to break resistance level at 63.80. The commodity price is currently testing the support level at 63.00. MACD histogram that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest crude oil price to extend its losses if breakout at the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 63.80, 64.20
Support level: 63.00, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher after breaking resistance by 200-MA line at 1327.90. Diminishing bearish momentum as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains if breakout at the ascending trend line is successful.
Resistance level: 1334.90, 1337.70
Support level: 1327.90, 1321.10
050418 Daily Analysis
05 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback muted in anticipation of NFP and Powell’s speech.
Greenback was traded in consolidation against its major peers, currently standing at 89.71 following the release of mixed economic data while U.S. – China trade concerns continued to weigh on the outlook for the U.S. currency. Overnight, ADP nonfarm employment change recorded an increase of 241K, well above the economists’ expectation of 208K. However, the upbeat data has failed to lift the Greenback following both services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI that missed the expected reading. At the same time, fears over the prospect of an all-out trade war between the U.S. and China continued to limit on dollar bull. All in all, market participants will be on-eyed towards the release of NFP reports and speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due this Friday to determine the direction of the dollar. On the contrary, GBP/USD remains broadly higher at $1.4087 following gains of 0.16%. The pair came under pressure earlier following construction PMI that missed the forecast reading of 50.9, last stood at 47.0. The slowdown of construction activity in the region was believed to be due to unreasonably cold weather.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.24% to $63.49 per barrel following Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that showed a surprise huge draw in U.S. crude supplies by 4.617 million barrels last week as compared to the economists’ expectation for a rise of 1.4 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price extended losses by 0.12% to $1331.19 a troy ounce following profit-taking by traders ahead the release of NFP data and speech by Jerome Powell.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:00 (Fri) USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – Trade Balance | 1.055B | 0.720B | – |
| 15:15 | CHF – CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Services PMI (Mar) | 54.2 | 54.2 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Mar) | 55.3 | 55.3 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Services PMI (Mar) | 55.0 | 55.0 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Mar) | 54.5 | 54.2 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.1% | 0.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 215K | 223K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Feb) | -56.60B | -56.50B | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Feb) | -1.91B | -2.10B | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 1.4090 and support level at 1.4010. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.4090, 1.4150
Support level: 1.4000, 1.3910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.2250. The pair is currently testing the resistance level at 1.2290. Positive divergence as displayed by MACD histogram would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the said resistance level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2290, 1.2310
Support level: 1.2250, 1.2220
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 106.65. The pair is currently testing the resistance by descending trend line. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if the pair successfully breaks the trend line as mentioned.
Resistance level: 107.00, 107.50
Support level: 106.65, 106.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior gaining its support at 63.10. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 63.80, 64.20
Support level: 63.10, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1334.90. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its losses towards the support level at 1327.90.
Resistance level: 1334.90, 1337.70
Support level: 1327.90, 1321.10
040418 Daily Analysis
04 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar in misery over trade-war peril.
Dollar index was traded lower against its major peers by 0.18% to 89.71 as of writing following rising global trade tensions between U.S. and China while market participants await release of non-farm payrolls (NFP) report this Friday. Greenback has struggled to gain on its ground after China announced to impose a list of possible tariffs up to $3 billion on 128 U.S. products. On the other hand, Trump administration was also reported to impose tariffs of more than $50 billion worth on advanced technology Chinese imports as a punishment for the latter party over technology transfer policies. Under the investigation of Section 301 of the 1974 U.S. Trade Act, China has been alleged to systematically misappropriate American intellectual property. An escalation of a full-blown trade dispute between the two major economies has rocked investors’ fears over a plausible trade war that will crush the global economic growth. On the contrary, USD/JPY was down 0.1% to 106.48 following worries over a halt to the growth of global economy prior to the escalating U.S. – China trade tensions.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended losses by 0.31% to $63.31 per barrel following a surge of Russia’s oil production to an 11-month high of 10.97 million bpd in March to meet weather-related demand in the country. Otherwise, gold price pared its losses by 0.32% to $1332.85 following an ongoing trade tensions between U.S. and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21:45 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
23:00 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Mar) | 54.2 | 54.5 | 52.3 |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Mar) | 51.4 | 51.2 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.1% | 1.4% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 8.6% | 8.5% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) | 235K | 206K | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Services PMI (Mar) | 54.1 | 54.3 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar) | 55.0 | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 59.5 | 59.2 | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 1.643M | -0.287M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -3.472M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 1.4080 and support level at 1.4010. Absence of significant signals from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next direction of the pair in near term.
Resistance level: 1.4080, 1.4130
Support level: 1.4010, 1.3910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.2250. Golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its downside bias.
Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2350
Support level: 1.2250, 1.2210
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 106.65. Death-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower supposed closure of candlestick below the minor support at 106.40 is successful.
Resistance level: 106.65, 107.00
Support level: 106.10, 105.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 63.10. However, MACD histogram that shows diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses towards its previous low.
Resistance level: 64.10, 64.70
Support level: 63.10, 62.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1334.90. Death-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest downside bias for the commodity price yet confirmation from candlestick pattern is required to reaffirm the direction.
Resistance level: 1334.90, 1337.70
Support level: 1327.90, 1321.10
030418 Daily Analysis
03 April 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback slumped over escalation of U.S.-China trade war.
Dollar index slipped lower against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.06% to 89.62 as of writing following the release of softer U.S. manufacturing data and escalating trade tensions between U.S. and China. Overnight, ISM purchasing managers’ index has recorded a fall to 59.3, missing the expected reading of 60.1. In addition, Greenback was being pressured continuously after China unveiled its retaliatory by imposing up to 25% tariffs on 128 different U.S. imports including seamless steel pipes, fruit, nuts and wine in response to Trump administration’s introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports which is likely to include about $50 billion to $60 billion worth of technology products. As a consequence, increased trade tensions between the two biggest economies in the world added investors’ fears over the prospect of a trade war. On the contrary, USD/JPY was down 0.24% to 105.88 following recent escalation of U.S. – China trade war tensions.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended losses by 1.57% to $63.15 per barrel after Russia reported an increase in crude production from 10.95 million bpd to 10.97 million bpd for the month of February, thus increasing investors’ concerns of oversupply. Otherwise, gold price rose 1.63% to $1338.10 a troy ounce attributable to renewed trade war between the U.S. and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
21:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
04:30 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | -0.7% | 0.7% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 58.4 | 58.4 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 56.6 | 56.6 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 55.2 | 54.8 | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 5.321M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 1.4080 and support level at 1.4010. A lack of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair.
Resistance level: 1.4080, 1.4130
Support level: 1.4010, 1.3910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior retracement from 200-MA line. MACD signal line that portrays a death-cross suggests downside bias for the pair yet a breakout below the 23.6 Fibonacci level and ascending trend line is required to confirm the signal.
Resistance level: 1.2345, 1.2415
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2220
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower after breaking support level at 106.00. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and MACD histogram that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 105.40.
Resistance level: 106.00, 106.50
Support level: 105.40, 104.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 63.30. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher to retest its previous low.
Resistance level: 63.30, 63.80
Support level: 62.40, 61.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior its failure to break resistance level at 1342.80. MACD signal line that shows a death-cross would indicate the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards the support level at 1338.10.
Resistance level: 1342.80, 1350.20
Support level: 1338.10, 1334.90
020418 Weekly Analysis
2 April 2018 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: April 2 – 6
Market Review (Forex): March 26 – 30
US dollar ended lower against other major currencies last Thursday as looming trade wars continue to haunt investors to bet against the currency. The dollar index recorded a loss of 0.20% while ended the week at 89.97. Ongoing questions over global trade protectionism following US President Donald Trump’s enactment of high tariff rate upon Chinese imports has shrouded the outlook for future US economy.
Earlier last week, the US dollar regained some upside momentum following the release of better-than-expected economic data from the region. In the GDP front, latest revision for last year’s fourth quarter came in at 2.9%, significantly better than economist forecast of only 2.7%. The optimistic reading was largely contributed by a higher real consumer spending in the last quarter with an increase of 4.0% versus 3.8% seen.
Similarly, the Fed preferred inflation measure – PCE Price Index shows similar notion after yearly comparison came in within economist expectation of 1.6% for the month of March. The data has further reinforced Fed’s outlook that future inflationary pressure Is expected to trickle towards the 2% target in the mid-term.
However, further gains on the dollar remains limited as investors gear up for the Good Easter and Eastern Europe holiday which sees a much lower trading volume than normal days. Likewise, the ongoing trade war uncertainty as catalyzed by Trump’s administration has placed a cap on the current upside as well.
US GDP Growth Rate
—– Forecast
US GDP growth came in higher than expected with 2.9% versus 2.7% seen.
US Real Consumer Spending
US Real Consumer Spending attains higher reading, with 4.0% versus economist forecast of only 3.8%.
US Core PCE Price Index (YoY)
Fed preferred PCE Price Index grew within expectation with 1.6% for the month of March.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY slipped 0.15% to 106.28 albeit recording weekly gains of up to 1.36%.
EUR/USD
Euro extended gains by 0.16% against the greenback while ending the week at $1.2319.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling remained unchanged against the US dollar, last quoted around $1.4017.
Market Review (Commodities): March 26 – 30
GOLD
Gold price ticked higher on last Thursday as trading was closed on Friday for Good Friday holiday. Price of the precious metal settled up 0.03% to $1,325.00 while recording a cumulative weekly loss of 1.73%. Earlier last week, the precious metal rallied to its highest level in five weeks on Wednesday before turning sharply as safe-haven demand diminished over subsiding geopolitical risk in Korean Peninsula. Gold price was hit by bearish pressure after US dollar extended its recovery from prior low due to better-than-expected regional economic data. Precious metal such as gold which is denominated in the US currency will become less affordable for holders of other currency when the dollar rises.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price tacks on to its gains on Thursday as investors cheered over data which showed the first fall in US oil rigs over the last three weeks. Oil prices ended higher on Thursday after rising up 56 cents or 0.90% and closing the week earlier due to Good Friday holiday at $64.94 a barrel. However, the oil price benchmark was down 1.4% for the week but recording a gain of up to 5.3% for the month and roughly 7.5% for the first quarter.
Overall bullish sentiment in the market was invigorated after US oilfield service provider Baker Hughes reported that the number of oil drilling rigs was down by 6 to a total of 798 last week. The report has help to firm up the support of crude prices amid positive report on Wednesday which suggest that OPEC and Russia are gearing up towards a long-term pact to keep oil price stable.
Prior, the effort done by members of OPEC and non-OPEC were dampened following rising output from non-participating mainly the United States. Regional domestic oil production rose to an all-time high of 10.43 million barrels per day last week, replacing Saudi Arabia as the second major oil producer globally.
Weekly Outlook: April 2 – 6
For the week ahead, investors will be pondering towards Friday’s US jobs report for indication on the future direction of monetary policy after Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time this year while reiterating to have three rate hikes this year. Otherwise, inflation data from the Eurozone will also be in focus as a pickup would catalyze higher expectation towards the European Central Bank to taper its stimulus later this year.
As for oil traders, they will be eyeing on US inventories level reported by API and EIA to gauge the strength of crude demand for world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: April 2 – 6
| Monday, April 2 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1) CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) USD – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) USD – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, April 3 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr) EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) EUR – Manufacturing PMI (Mar) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Events USD – FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, April 4 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) CNY – Caixin Services PMI (Mar) GBP – Construction PMI (Mar) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) EUR – Unemployment Rate (Feb) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) USD – Services PMI (Mar) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories
Events USD – FOMC Member Brainard Speaks USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USD – FOMC Member Mester Speaks
|
| Thursday, April 5 |
Data AUD – Trade Balance (Feb) CHF – CPI (MoM) (Mar) EUR – German Services PMI (Mar) EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Mar) EUR – Services PMI (Mar) GBP – Services PMI (Mar) EUR – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Trade Balance (Feb) CAD – Trade Balance (Feb)
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, April 5
|
Data JPY – Household Spending (YoY) (Feb) EUR – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) USD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) CAD – Employment Change (Mar) CAD – Unemployment Rate (Mar) CAD – Ivey PMI (Mar) CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks USD – Fed Chair Powell Speaks
|
Technical Weekly Outlook: April 2 – 6
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the 60-MA (green), near the key resistance of 90.00. Overall major trend which still skew towards bearish suggests the index to extend its losses after successfully closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 90.00, 90.60
Support level: 89.40, 88.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher after regaining some support from the 20-MA line (red). Stochastic Oscillator which has illustrate an imminent rebound signal from the oversold region suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term in the event of a bullish rebound from the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.4210, 1.4390
Support level: 1.3970, 1.3800
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remains traded within a descending channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggest the pair to extend its losses in short-term after breaking the support level at 105.95.
Resistance level: 108.40, 109.70
Support level: 105.95, 105.45
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within the range of 1.2270 and 1.2500 following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate the imminent formation of rebound signal from the oversold region may suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.2400, 1.2500
Support level: 1.2270, 1.2170
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum may suggest the commodity price to extend its losses in short-term, towards the target of support level at 1312.00.
Resistance level: 1340.00, 1353.70
Support level: 1312.00, 1295.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 63.75. Both MA lines which has formed a golden cross signal may suggest the commodity price to extend further up and retest near the strong resistance level of 66.65.
Resistance level: 66.65, 69.10
Support level: 63.75, 60.80
300318 Daily Analysis
30 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar remained steady ahead of Easter holidays.
Dollar index was traded flat against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies around key level 89.70 ahead of the celebration of Good Friday. Overnight, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose coherently with economists’ forecast for an increase of 1.6%, suggesting that inflation continues to trail towards 2% inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. In addition, initial jobless claims reduced by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 last week, much better than the expected reading to achieve a drop to 230,000. Greenback was also able to hold on its bullish bias after consumer spending met the forecast reading for a rise of 0.2% last month. On the contrary, USD/CAD was down 0.21% to $1.2890 despite Canadian GDP data that shown a surprise actual reading at -0.1% versus the expected reading of 0.1% following recovery of oil prices from its three-day slump.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.87% to $64.89 per barrel after US rig count snaps its 2-week gains by six to 798, sparkling market sentiment towards possible tightening in domestic output. Otherwise, gold price eased a little by 0.19% but still traded at its 1-week lows around $1325.08 a troy ounce following an ease of trade tension between U.S. and China.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day All Markets Good Friday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:00 (Sat) USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – Household Spending (YoY) | 1.9% | – | – |
| 07:30 | JPY – Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| 07:50 | JPY – Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) | -6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.4060. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 1.3980.
Resistance level: 1.4060, 1.4100
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3870
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following rebound from support level at 1.2290. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards its previous low.
Resistance level: 1.2330, 1.2350
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2260
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower prior breaking support level at 106.80. Death-cross as portrayed by MACD signal line would suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the next support level at 106.00 if the pair successfully closes its candlestick below the 200-MA line.
Resistance level: 106.80, 107.50
Support level: 106.00, 105.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 64.70. Golden-cross as shown by MACD signal line would suggest the commodity price to continue its gains towards the next resistance level at 65.40.
Resistance level: 65.40, 66.40
Support level: 64.70, 63.80
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1321.10. Positive divergence as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to extend its gains if breakout at the resistance level at 1326.90 is successful.
Resistance level: 1326.90, 1334.90
Support level: 1321.10, 1316.10
290318 Daily Analysis
29 March 2018 Daily Analysis
Greenback surged on the back of optimistic data!
Greenback rose by 0.35% against its major peers to 89.70 following release of a series of economic data that reflected faster-than-expected growth pace in the region. Overnight, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that GDP for the fourth quarter grew at a faster pace with 2.9% versus 2.5% seen on a year-over-year basis. In addition, consumer spending was last seen with an increase of 0.2% to 4.0%, achieving its largest gains in three years. These upbeat data have lifted investors’ sentiment for the Federal Reserve to adopt a slightly more aggressive pace of interest rates hikes in the future. At the meantime, bullish momentum of the Greenback was seen to be short-lived following U.S. President Donald Trump who discussed China’s trade practices with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Both parties are considered to “join forces to counter” China’s economic practices and alleged intellectual property theft. On the contrary, USD/JPY rose by 0.785 to 106.70 after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that the central bank should maintain its current framework for monetary easing in order to attain its inflation target.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounded from its session lows by 0.37% to $64.60 per barrel following investors’ optimism towards OPEC and its allies to curb excess stockpiles. Overnight, the commodity price suffered short-term losses after EIA reported U.S. crude inventories that increased by 1.643 million barrels last week versus the expected reading for a decline of 287,000 barrels. Likewise, gold price plummeted by 1.48% to $1326.95 a troy ounce as the safe-haven asset price was being continuously pressured by recent gains in dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | GBP – Nationwide HPI (MoM) | -0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Mar) | -22K | -15K | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 5.4% | 5.3% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (YoY) (Q4) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) | 1.5% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 231K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jan) | 3.3% | 2.9% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Feb) | 3.3% | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 102.0 | 102.1 | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 804 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.4100. The pair is currently testing the next support level at 1.4060. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses if closure of candlestick below the said support level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.4100, 1.4130
Support level: 1.4060, 1.4020
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking support level at 1.2330. However, MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short- term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2330, 1.2350
Support level: 1.2290, 1.2260
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower prior retracement from resistance level at 107.00. MACD histogram that shows diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to trade lower as a technical correction towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 107.00, 107.30
Support level: 106.70, 106.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior its failure to break support level at 64.10. The commodity price is currently testing the resistance level at 64.60. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest crude oil price to extend higher if candlestick successfully closes above the said resistance level.
Resistance level: 64.60, 65.25
Support level: 64.10, 63.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1326.90. However, golden-cross as displayed by MACD signal line would suggest the safe-haven asset price to trade higher if it successfully breaks above the previous low.
Resistance level: 1326.90, 1335.00
Support level: 1316.10, 1308.80