Daily Analysis

9 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Dollar remains pressured as market awaits U-S China meeting.

Dollar index have edge lower 0.03% to 97.31 at the time of writing against its basket of six major currency pairs following market awaiting trade developments between U.S and China. Trade war between two powerhouse U.S and China has recently return back to the spotlight as President Donald Trump have escalated the tension by threatening to levy tariffs on Chinese import worth $2 billion and also proposed to increase the tariff from 10% to 25%. In recent reports, China also threatens to retaliate to U.S tariff with a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman have stated that   if the U.S. tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures. Market will remain focused on the results of trade talk between the two countries which would happen later today as the deadline for the trade deal have almost reach to the end. On the other hand, GBP/USD also have slightly recovered from its low by 0.05% to 1.3010 as of writing as political uncertainty in U.K have receded for now. In recent reports from Financial Times, U.K Prime Minister Theresa May promised to have fresh Brexit deal on the parliament’s voting table in the next two week which have help ease heightening concerns in the Brexit uncertainty.

As for commodities, crude oil price dips 0.52% to $61.63 per barrel at the time of writing despite crude inventories draw surprise. According to EIA, inventory level have slumped by -3.963M which is better than market expectation with an inventory rise of 1.125M. However, market remains pessimistic as the sentiment was capped by worries that a breakdown in trade talks between the world’s top two economies will drag global growth lower which could affected the demand for the commodity, therefore pressuring the commodity price. On the other hand, gold price have also slip 0.12% to $1280.71 a troy ounce as of writing following investor have dumped on the commodity on profit taking.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20.30                     USD                       Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded flat following recent rebound from the low levels. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 97.60

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00

Support level: 97.05, 96.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1.3100.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3190

Support level: 1.3000, 1.2940

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1215. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.1215 or below the support level 1.1180 is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.60.

Resistance level: 110.35, 110.90

Support level: 109.70, 108.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6965. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 0.6965.

Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7035

Support level: 0.6965, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6585. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6510

Resistance level: 0.6585, 0.6645

Support level: 0.6510, 0.6460

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3475. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3520.

Resistance level: 1.3520, 1.3570

Support level: 1.3475, 1.3430

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.0200. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0230.

Resistance level: 1.0230, 1.0305
Support level: 1.0200, 1.0160

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 61.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 60.35.

Resistance level: 61.75, 62.85

Support level: 60.35, 58.40

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1279.10. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40

Support level: 1279.10, 1269.40

8 May 2019                          Afternoon Session Analysis

RBNZ cut rate, NZD slump sharply.

New Zealand dollar received tremendous selling pressure following the release of interest rate decision from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). As of writing, pair of NZD/USD was quoted down 0.43% to 0.6573 during mid-Asian trading session. As widely expected, RBNZ announced to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points from 1.75% to 1.50% due to bleak economic progression in New Zealand. RBNZ quoted that there are still large uncertainties which surrounds the economy and one of the major factors lies upon US-China trade war. Likewise, the central bank was surprised by a weaker downturn in business sentiment and consumer spending, thus initiating an interest cut to balance out the economy. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.09% to 0.7017. Australian dollar was unfazed by weaker-than-expected trade data from China as market participants pay their attention upon US-China trade talk.

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.68% to $61.78 per barrel. Oil price received some support following US sanction against crude oil exporters such as Iran. With sanction in place, investors expect its crude exports to fell more than 500,000 barrels per day, down from 1 million barrels per day in April. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.16% to $1,286.46 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

19:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.40, 97.60

Support level: 97.05, 96.70

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3045. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3090.

Resistance level: 1.3090, 1.3145

Support level: 1.3045, 1.3005

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1180. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1215.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1255

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1125

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 110.05. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 109.75.

Resistance level: 110.05, 110.35

Support level: 103.75, 109.25

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend it gains toward the resistance level at 0.7025.

Resistance level: 0.7025, 0.7055

Support level: 0.6995, 0.6960

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following while currently testing the support level at 0.6585. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closes its candle below the support level at 0.6585.

Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6585, 0.6545

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3475. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3440.

Resistance level: 1.3475, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3440, 1.3415

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0180. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.0180.

Resistance level: 1.0220, 1.0245

Support level: 1.0180, 1.0155

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 61.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 62.75.

Resistance level: 62.75, 64.45

Support level: 61.45, 60.20

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1287.65.

Resistance level: 1287.65, 1293.20

Support level: 1278.45, 1272.60

8 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Dollar pressured by trade concerns, Yen gains.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies edged down lower by 0.06% to 97.27 after climbing to higher levels supported by strong job data on Tuesday. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTs Job Openings data came in higher than expected with a reading of 7.488M vs 7.350M, further indicating a strong labor market right after last Friday’s release of Nonfarm Payroll data. However, dollar gains were limited following a large demand for the safe-haven Yen amid escalating trade war tensions. Despite the trade talks continuing this week, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer criticized China for backtracking on their commitments and also reaffirmed President Trump’s threat to increase tariff from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods which would take immediate effect on Friday. As the week comes closer to the deadline, market uncertainties caused investors to seek shelter for their investment in the safe-haven Yen, extending the losses of USD/JPY by 0.12% to 110.10 as of writing.

As for commodities, crude oil price rebounded by 0.29% to $61.57 per barrel after plunging more than 2% yesterday amid concerns on trade war tensions. The oil market continues to be pressured after President Trump threatened to increase the 10% tariff on $200 billion Chinese goods to 25% by Friday if no deal is reached by this week. On the other hand, gold price edged higher by 0.11% to $1285.80 a troy ounce amid increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11:00                     NZD                                        RBNZ Press Conference

19:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Draghi Speaks

19:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 97.60 or below the support level 97.05 before entering the market.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00

Support level: 97.05, 96.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the MA line 50 (blue). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3105.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3190

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1180. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.1215 or below the support level 1.1180 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.60.

Resistance level: 110.35, 110.90

Support level: 109.60, 108.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6995. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7035.

Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7065

Support level: 0.6995, 0.6965

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6585. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6645.

Resistance level: 0.6645, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6585, 0.6550

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3470. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.3430.

Resistance level: 1.3470, 1.3520

Support level: 1.3430, 1.3395

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0200. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0160.

Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 61.75. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 61.75, 62.85

Support level: 60.35, 58.40

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1287.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40

Support level: 1279.50, 1269.40

7 May 2019                          Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD spikes, RBA remains neutral.

Australian dollar skyrocketed during mid-Asian trading session following the release of statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.65% to 0.7038. As widely expected, RBA kept their interest rate unchanged at 1.50% for 38^th straight meeting, dialing down the expectation for a possible rate cut. In the statement, RBA remains neutral as they expect economic growth in Australia to remain resilient while being subjected to risks which are tilted to the downside. The central bank noted that growth in international trade has diminished and investment intentions have softened in several countries. However, RBA expects domestic growth to grow around 2.75% for 2019 and 2020 due to a pickup in infrastructure investment. Overall, the statement remains tilted towards neutral, confounding prior expectations for a possible dovishness and interest rate cut ahead from the central bank. Likewise, the Australian dollar received additional bullish support after Retail Sales for the month of March grew by 0.3%, cementing market sentiment for an eventual recovery in consumer spending.

As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.40% to $62.30 per barrel. Oil prices came under pressure following concerns of escalating US-China trade dispute which may slowdown global economy and demand for crude oil. Otherwise, gold price appreciates by 0.19% to $1,282.92 a troy ounce due to rising trade war risks.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 97.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.40, 97.60

Support level: 97.05, 96.70

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3090. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3140.

Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3090, 1.3045

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1180. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1215.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1255

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1125

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 110.85. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 110.35.

Resistance level: 110.85, 111.15

Support level: 110.35, 109.75

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6995. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend it gains toward the resistance level at 0.7025.

Resistance level: 0.7025, 0.7055

Support level: 0.6995, 0.6960

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6630. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6585.

Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6585, 0.6545

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3440. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3390.

Resistance level: 1.3440, 1.3505

Support level: 1.3390, 1.3345

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0180. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0155.

Resistance level: 1.0180, 1.0220

Support level: 1.0155, 1.0125

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 62.75. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 61.45.

Resistance level: 62.75, 64.45

Support level: 61.45, 60.20

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1278.45. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1287.65.

Resistance level: 1287.65, 1293.20

Support level: 1278.45, 1272.45

7 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Aussie recovers ahead of RBA meeting, dollar flat.

Dollar index remain traded flat in a range against a basket of six major currency rivals as the uncertainty in trade tension between U.S and China still dominate the sentiment among investors. Recently U.S President Donald Trump have threatened that he will levy tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imported products and could also more than double to 25% from 10% due to impatient and slow progress in trade deals between two countries, which stoke fear among investors. However, market and analyst starting the prospect of Trump following through with his threat as China remain persistent and have prepared for further discussions in the U.S on Wednesday despite the threat. Market currently remain in focused on the trade talk between the two economies where a positive development could send the market reeling, Dollar index edge lower 0.02% to 97.22 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovers 0.06% to 0.6993 at the time of writing as market currently eyed for the RBA policy meeting. Following with upcoming policy meeting, market observers are expected that the Royal Bank of Australia will more likely to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis point considering the latest disappointing data that support for the move. As the Aussie sentiment currently dominated by revived fears of trade war, market will now focus on the meeting decision to determine further direction.

As for commodities, crude oil price retraced 0.63% to $62.19 per barrel after a strong rebound due to reports of planned Iran strike on U.S interest. According to recent report, Israel’s Channel 13 diplomatic correspondent Barak Ravid stated that Israel has passed information to the U.S. about an alleged Iranian plot to attack U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. The rising Gulf tensions could largely create disruption for the output, therefore sending the market into a demand frenzy for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price holding its grounds and edge up 0.17% to $1287.67 a troy ounce at the time of writing as dollar remain pressured from trade fears.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                     AUD                       RBA Rate Statement

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the 60-MA line (red). However, due to lack of momentum and signal from the MACD, a breakout above or below the resistance and support level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25

Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3105. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1185. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1240.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.30.

Resistance level: 110.95, 111.35

Support level: 110.30, 109.75

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6990. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level 0.6990.

Resistance level: 0.6990, 0.7050

Support level: 0.6930, 0.6855

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6580.

Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6510

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3435. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.0100.

Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 61.85. However, MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 63.15.

Resistance level: 63.15, 64.65

Support level: 61.85, 60.15

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the 60-MA line (red). However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1277.30.

Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65

Support level: 1277.30, 1266.35

6 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Yen in bid after Trump’s ultimatum.

Japanese yen received higher demand on Monday after US President Donald Trump threatened to increase additional tariffs upon China, sparking higher risk aversion in the global financial market. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY depreciates by 0.43% to 110.61. Last Sunday, Trump increased his pressure towards China to reach a trade deal as soon as possible by announcing to hike tariffs upon $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week. His announcement which were made via Twitter marked a major shift in tone from Trump, who previously cited good progress in trade talks and praised his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Due to a possible deepening in trade war between two of the world’s largest economy, investors poured into safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen and gold. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.68% to 0.6975. Australian dollar received a large selloff due to higher trade war risks in between US and China. It is to be noted that China is Australia’s largest trade partner.

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 2.25% to $60.41 per barrel. Following Trump’s tariff announcement on Twitter, oil futures were sold off due to higher risk aversion and possibility of a slowdown in oil demand after tariffs were being enforced upon China by the US. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.29% to $1,282.87 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   UK                                           Early May Bank Holiday

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:45 (7^th)             CAD                                        Boc Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.40.

Resistance level: 97.40, 97.60

Support level: 97.05, 96.70

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3105.

Resistance level: 1.3140, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3105, 1.3065

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1180. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1215.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1255

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1125

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 110.85. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 110.35.

Resistance level: 110.85, 111.15

Support level: 110.35, 109.75

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the support level at 0.6950.

Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7025

Support level: 0.6950, 0.6910

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6630.

Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6585, 0.6545

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3440. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3505.

Resistance level: 1.3505, 1.3565

Support level: 1.3440, 1.3390

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0160. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0125.

Resistance level: 1.0180, 1.0220

Support level: 1.0125, 1.0090

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 60.25. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 60.25.

Resistance level: 61.80, 62.80

Support level: 60.25, 58.20

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1278.45. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1287.65.

Resistance level: 1287.65, 1293.20

Support level: 1278.45, 1272.45

6 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Yen dominates market, dollar remained pressured.

Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies edged higher by 0.07% to 97.26 on early Monday after losing its gains on Friday amid poor wage data. Last Friday, US released their monthly Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data with a higher than expected reading as well as a lower unemployment rate. Both bullish data failed to kept dollar at its high level as investors reacted towards the poor Average Hourly Earnings data which came in at 3.2% vs 3.3%. The slowdown in wage growth indicated a possibly lower spending which will affect the inflation level for the long-run. This spiraled uncertainties in the market and heightened the possibility for future rate cut by Federal Reserve by this year. Besides that, greenback was further pressured by President Trump’s threat for tariff hike on Chinese goods. Last Sunday, China was pressured to reach a deal when Trump threatened to increase tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week if no deal were met. The major shift in tone from Trump caused investors to exit the dollar market and enter into safe-haven Yen and gold market. As of writing, pair of USDJPY was down by 0.61% to 110.40.

As for commodities, crude oil price plunged 2.36% to $60.34 per barrel amid Trump’s tariff threat on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The threat caused a major sell-off in oil market as investors fear that the tension in trade war will further drag the demand for crude oil. Besides that, according to US Baker Hughes, last week rig count was increased by 2 to 807, signaling increasing oil production in the US market. Likewise, gold price extended its gains by 0.45% to $1284.70 a troy ounce amid trade war uncertainties which caused investors to flee into safe-haven gold.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   UK                                           Early May Bank Holiday

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

01:45 (7^th)             CAD                                        Boc Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 97.60. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.00

Support level: 97.05, 96.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3190. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3105.

Resistance level: 1.3190, 1.3270

Support level: 1.3105, 1.3015

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1180. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1215.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 110.35.

Resistance level: 110.90, 111.50

Support level: 110.35, 109.60

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6995. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6950.

Resistance level: 0.6995, 0.7035

Support level: 0.6950, 0.6900

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6645. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6585.

Resistance level: 0.6645, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6585, 0.6550

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3470. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the support level 1.3520.

Resistance level: 1.3520, 1.3570

Support level: 1.3470, 1.3430

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0160. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 60.35. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 61.75, 62.85

Support level: 60.35, 58.40

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1279.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1287.00

Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40

Support level: 1279.50, 1269.40

3 May 2019                          Afternoon Session Analysis

Market cheers for greenback ahead of NFP.

Dollar index which measure against a basket six major currency pairs have extend its gains and look to end the week with a firmer tone as market scaled back their expectations on U.S rate cuts. Despite recent mixed economic data, market remains optimistic after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell down played recent slowdown in inflation and saw no reason to cut interest rates. At the same time, the greenback was also supported by rising US treasury yield. Currently, market participants is waiting for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll data where the data could would trigger a huge momentum in the market. Dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.55 as of writing. On the other hand, Aussie have fell to new fresh session lows after slipping 0.06% to 0.6997 at the time of writing. Such selloff was evoked as metal commodities price such as copper and crude oil being heavily pressured by global risk and slowing demand. As Australia’s largest export mostly depend on these natural commodities, price weakness in the metals dragged market sentiment towards the Aussie dollar. Besides that, recent weakness in inflation figures has also provide further reason for Aussie to remain in bearish momentum.

As for commodities, crude oil price extended its losses from prior session due to increasing oil output from the United States. U.S oil production have reached a record high of 12.3 million bpd last week and broke through 3 million bpd for the first time this year. Besides that, news on Russia would call the end on OPEC supply cut deal continues to drag its price further. Crude oil price fell 0.12% to $61.45 per barrel as of writing. On the other hand, gold price remained pressured and fell 0.03% to $1271.55 a troy ounce as of writing amid resilient US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Japan                     Constitution Day

All Day                   China                      Labour Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 97.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25

Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1145.

Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1240

Support level: 1.1145, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 111.75 or below the support level 111.35 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.35, 110.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6990. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.7050.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090

Support level: 0.6990, 0.6930

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from low-levels. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6635.

Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3435. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1.3435.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 61.85. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 61.85, 63.15

Support level: 60.15, 58.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1266.35. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1277.30.

Resistance level: 1277.30, 1285.80

Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25

Dollar index which measure against a basket six major currency pairs have extend its gains and look to end the week with a firmer tone as market scaled back their expectations on U.S rate cuts. Despite recent mixed economic data, market remains optimistic after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell down played recent slowdown in inflation and saw no reason to cut interest rates. At the same time, the greenback was also supported by rising US treasury yield. Currently, market participants is waiting for the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll data where the data could would trigger a huge momentum in the market. Dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.55 as of writing. On the other hand, Aussie have fell to new fresh session lows after slipping 0.06% to 0.6997 at the time of writing. Such selloff was evoked as metal commodities price such as copper and crude oil being heavily pressured by global risk and slowing demand. As Australia’s largest export mostly depend on these natural commodities, price weakness in the metals dragged market sentiment towards the Aussie dollar. Besides that, recent weakness in inflation figures has also provide further reason for Aussie to remain in bearish momentum.

As for commodities, crude oil price extended its losses from prior session due to increasing oil output from the United States. U.S oil production have reached a record high of 12.3 million bpd last week and broke through 3 million bpd for the first time this year. Besides that, news on Russia would call the end on OPEC supply cut deal continues to drag its price further. Crude oil price fell 0.12% to $61.45 per barrel as of writing. On the other hand, gold price remained pressured and fell 0.03% to $1271.55 a troy ounce as of writing amid resilient US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Japan                     Constitution Day

All Day                   China                      Labour Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 97.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25

Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking below previous support level at 1.1185. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1145.

Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1240

Support level: 1.1145, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat near the 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 111.75 or below the support level 111.35 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.35, 110.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6990. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.7050.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090

Support level: 0.6990, 0.6930

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from low-levels. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6635.

Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3435. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 1.3435.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 61.85. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 61.85, 63.15

Support level: 60.15, 58.45

GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1266.35. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1277.30.

Resistance level: 1277.30, 1285.80

Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25

3 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Could NFP lift greenback to its grandeur?

Greenback extended its post-Federal Reserve meeting recovery despite mixed economic data from the region on yesterday. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted up 0.15% to 97.55. According to US Commerce Department, factory goods orders for the month of March came in at 1.9%, beating economist expectation for a rise of 1.0%. However, US Department of Labor shows that the initial jobless claims for last week remained unchanged at 230,000, missing economist forecast for a decline of 10,000 individuals to 220,000. Overall, the mixed data did little to hamper greenback’s recovery after US government bond yields extended its rebound due to lower chances for a rate cut in the near-term. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he reiterates that the current path of monetary policy remains appropriate and they will adopt a “wait and see” approach prior to tweaking their policy. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.03% to 1.3032 during Asian trading session. Bank of England remained cautious with regards to UK’s economic outlook due to Brexit risks and stands ready to act whenever it is needed. Likewise, BoE downplayed the prospects for an increased pace of rate hikes as they expect near-term inflation to steady below their target of 2%.

As for commodities, crude oil price recovered some losses by 0.18% to $61.61 per barrel. Oil price slumped more than 4% on yesterday while hitting one-month lows after data from Energy Information Administration shows that crude inventories were up nearly 30 million barrels in the last 5 weeks. Stocks has been building up since chemical plant fire in Houston port which delays the oil exports. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,270.60 a troy ounce due to substantial recovery of US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Japan                     Constitution Day

All Day                   China                      Labour Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 96.85. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.65.

Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60

Support level: 96.85, 95.90

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3120

Support level: 1.3000, 1.2900

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.1200. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.1155.

Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1250

Support level: 1.1155, 1.1100

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 111.35.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.00

Support level: 111.35, 111.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6990. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6990.

Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7070

Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level of 0.6630. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6580.

Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.3485.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 1.0205. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above the resistance of 1.0205.

Resistance level: 1.0205, 1.0320

Support level: 1.0135, 1.0095

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 61.80. MACD which begins to form a golden cross suggests its price to extend further up after closing above 61.80.

Resistance level: 61.80, 63.00

Support level: 60.85, 59.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 1267.00. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1275.30, 1285.80

Support level: 1267.00, 1253.25

2 May 2019                          Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie rekindled on trade deal hopes, Kiwi plummets.

The Australian Dollar have regained its bullish momentum against the greenback following reports of positive U.S-Sino trade deals. According to reports from CNBC, both economic powerhouse U.S and China could announce a trade deal by next Friday. Officials from both sides have wrapped up the most recent round of exchanges in Beijing on Wednesday. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will go to Washington for more talks in a week. As China is the largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie also lifted by the positive news. Pair of AUD/USD rose 0.21% to 0.7025 as of writing. On the other hand, NZD/USD extend losses by 0.12% to 0.6625 at the time of writing following disappointing job data. According to Statistic New Zealand, employment change have decreased by -0.2% which is weaker than expected reading of 0.5%. The weak job data may heighten expectations for an interest rate cut from Reserve Bank Of New Zealand, thus sending market into a sell-off frenzy for the Kiwi.

As for commodities, crude oil price dips 0.27% to $63.38 per barrel as of writing following record on U.S output. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude stockpiles have rose to their highest since September 2017 last week which the stock jumped by 9.9 million barrels to 470.6 barrels, setting a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd). Next, gold price slips further 0.20% to $1274.22 per troy ounce as of writing following recovering dollar lifted by recent FOMC meeting.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Japan                     Holiday

All Day                   China                      Labor Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:00                     EUR                                        EU Economic Forecasts

19:00                     GBP                                        BoE Inflation Report

19:00                     GBP                                        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

19:30                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bias bullish signal suggest index to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25

Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower after retracing from the resistance level 1.3105. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2945

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing both MA line. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace back towards the support level 1.1185.

Resistance level: 1.1240, 1.1305

Support level: 1.1185, 1.1145

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 111.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.75.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.35, 110.95

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090

Support level: 0.7000, 0.6930

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6635. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6635, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6610, 0.6580

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3435. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3435, 1.3485

Support level: 1.3380, 1.3305

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line and resistance level 1.0190.

Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0100, 0.9980

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully closing above the 20-MA line.

Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00

Support level: 63.15, 61.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded lower after successfully breaking below the support level 1277.30. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its losses towards the support level 1266.35

Resistance level: 1277.30, 1285.80

Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25

2 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Neutral Fed reanimates dollar-bull.

Greenback rebounds from its prior low against other major currencies as US Federal Reserve expressed their patience in terms of monetary policy stance. The dollar index mends its losses by 0.14% to 97.32 as of writing. As widely expected, Fed kept their interest rate unchanged at 2.50% while reiterates to “wait-and-see” when it comes to monetary policy adjustments. Such signal portrays that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates for the time being. Likewise, although the central bank noted significant depreciation of inflation from their target of 2%, they continue to give positive outlook in terms of domestic consumer spending and business investments. Nevertheless, the Fed also noted that any adjustment to interest rates will be dependent on future economic conditions in terms of labor market, inflation and global financial developments. However, any substantial gains on the greenback were seemingly limited following the release of mixed data prior to Fed’s interest rate decision. Although ADP Nonfarm Employment Change exceed economist forecast with 275,000, ISM Manufacturing PMI experienced slight contraction from 55.3 to 52.8 for the month of April.

For commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.16% to $63.45 per barrel. Oil futures were sold after Energy Information Administration reported an increase in last week’s inventories by 9.9 million barrels, missing economist forecast for an increase of only 1.485 million barrels. The reading has substantially reduced bullish bets on the commodity as seemingly high stockpiles in the US may be due to higher production activity and lower market demand. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.07% to $1,277.56 a troy ounce due to lower expectation for an interest rate hike in the US which may increase the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Japan                     Holiday

All Day                   China                      Labor Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:00                     EUR                                        EU Economic Forecasts

19:00                     GBP                                        BoE Inflation Report

19:00                     GBP                                        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

19:30                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 96.85. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the index to be traded higher following a close above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60

Support level: 96.85, 95.90

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing at 1.3050. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.3050.

Resistance level: 1.3120, 1.3200

Support level: 1.3050, 1.3000

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.1200. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1200.

Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the mid-level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the upper level.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.00

Support level: 111.35, 111.05

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior close below 0.7035. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of support at 0.6990.

Resistance level: 0.7035, 0.7070

Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior close below 0.6630. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of support level near 0.6580.

Resistance level: 0.6630, 0.6670

Support level: 0.6580, 0.6540

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Although MACD begins to form a bullish signal, a break above the triangle is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 1.0135. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.0205, 1.0320

Support level: 1.0135, 1.0095

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65

Support level: 63.15, 61.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1285.80. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower after closing below 1275.30.

Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65

Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00

1 May 2019                          Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar flat ahead of FOMC meeting, Kiwi tumbles.

Dollar index extend its losses for a third consecutive sessions against a basket of six major currency pairs on Tuesday despite higher than expected housing data and consumer confidence. According to US Conference Board, consumer confidence index came in at 129.2, exceeding forecasted value of 126.0 which signals strong confidence towards the economic activity. However, recent inflationary data had caused uncertainties in the market while waiting for today’s interest rate statement to obtain further confirmation. It is widely expected that the bank will keep their interest rate unchanged however market participants worry that recent weak inflation may lead to rate cuts by December this year. All in all, investors will still focus on today’s key manufacturing and ADP employment data to further gauge the movement of greenback before looking into Fed’s statement. In other news, this morning release of New Zealand’s employment change for the first quarter had dragged the Kiwi lower. According to Statistics New Zealand, the employment change data came in at -0.2%, much lower than the forecasted value of 0.5%. The data which signaled a poor labor market caused investors to sell the single currency. As of writing, dollar index was edged higher by 0.03% to 97.17 while pair of NZD/USD was down by 0.33% to 0.6648.

As for commodities, crude oil price fell 0.17% to $63.33 per barrel following the buildup in crude inventories. The oil market sentiment remained mixed amid political tensions the Venezuela and also fear of abandonment of OPEC’s glut cut after June. Recent reports showed that Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro is currently in a stand-off with opposition leader Juan Guaido which may possible lead to large-scale violence and affecting crudes supply. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.26% to $1,279.85 a troy ounce due to heightened risk appetite for profitable pound and euro market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Germany                               Labour Day

All Day                   Hong Kong            Labour Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00 (2^nd)            USD                                        FOMC Statement

02:30                     USD                                        FOMC Press Conference

04:15                     CAD                                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 97.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 97.55.

Resistance level: 97.55, 98.00

Support level: 97.05, 96.45

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3015. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3190

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1215. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.1180.

Resistance level: 1.1215, 1.1245

Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 111.45. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.80.

Resistance level: 111.80, 112.10

Support level: 111.45, 110.90

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 0.7050. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7085

Support level: 0.7005, 0.6950

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6640. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6720

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6585

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.3395. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3345.

Resistance level: 1.3395, 1.3430

Support level: 1.3345, 1.3295

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the resistance level 1.0200. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.0200.

Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 64.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 62.85.

Resistance level: 64.55, 66.30

Support level: 62.85, 61.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price traded lower while currently testing the support level 1280.45. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40

Support level: 1280.45, 1271.80

1 May 2019                          Morning Session Analysis

Greenback loses its shine.

Greenback extended its decline for second consecutive days following signs of cooling inflation in the United States which has increased the chances for Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.34%, last seen around 97.18. Prior, Fed preferred inflation measure – the PCE and Core PCE Price Index shows substantial depreciation in current inflationary pressure. During its last meeting, the Fed was skewed towards dovish for the year following concerns over global growth and weak inflation while reiterates to adopt wait-and-see approach and act if necessary. For the time being, investors will be remained fixated upon Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting which would conclude past midnight today. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the market is currently pricing in at more than 60% chance for an interest cut during December. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.03% to 1.3034. Sterling received further bullish support following positive developments with regards to Brexit after both Conservative and Labour Party was reportedly progressing “constructively”.

As for commodities, crude oil price ticked down 0.05% to $63.44 per barrel. Oil futures received substantial bearish pressure after American Petroleum Institute reported a swell in US crude inventories by 6.81 million barrels last week. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.04% to $1,282.94 a troy ounce following diminishing risks in the market which lead to a shift towards other assets in UK and Canada.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   Germany                               Labour Day

All Day                   Hong Kong            Labour Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00 (2^nd)            USD                                        FOMC Statement

02:30                     USD                                        FOMC Press Conference

04:15                     CAD                                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60

Support level: 96.85, 95.90

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3050.

Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3120

Support level: 1.3000, 1.2900

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior close above 1.1200. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of target at 1.1250.

Resistance level: 1.1250, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1200, 1.1155

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 111.25. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 111.50, 112.10

Support level: 111.25, 111.00

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a sideways channel in between 0.7035 and 0.7070. Due to the lack of signal from both MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7115

Support level: 0.7035, 0.6990

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 0.6630.

Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6695

Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below the support of 1.3400. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3370.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3435

Support level: 1.3370, 1.3340

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a downward channel while recently closed below 1.0190. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term towards the direction of 1.0170.

Resistance level: 1.0190, 1.0205

Support level: 1.0170, 1.0130

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior close below 63.70. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 63.15.

Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65

Support level: 63.15, 61.60

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher, towards the direction of 1285.80.

Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65

Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00

30 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie dragged by China missed data, dollar remains pressured.

Dollar index continue to fell against its basket of six major currency pairs as market remains pressured by weak consumption figures. Overall, market is currently digesting disappointing data from US after personal consumption expenditures (PCE) (which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement) fell to 1.6%, missing economist expectation for a rise of 1.7%. As the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to be held this week, investors’ attention will be centered towards the meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference where they expected to result in a decision to leave its key federal funds rate unchanged. Dollar index extend its losses by 0.05% to 97.50 as of writing. On the other hand, AUD/USD suffered huge losses and fell 0.18% to 0.7043 at the time of writing following downbeat China PMI. According to Markit Economics, China factory activity have slumped to 50.2, weaker than market expectation with the expected reading of 51.0. The below-forecasted data have illustrate that China’s economy have barely expanded in April, hinting economic slowdown, therefore dragging the Aussie which is China’s largest trading partner.

In the commodities market, crude oil price have dip 0.25% to $63.37 per barrel at the time of writing as market flipped between gains following rampant uncertainty in the commodity. Following recent announcement on Iran waiver by Washington, investors are trying to assess how OPEC and its allies will respond when U.S. waivers that allowed buyers to continue importing Iranian oil expire on May 2. At the same time, a stutter in China’s factory activity also weighed on the demand of crude oil. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.29% to $1283.50 a troy ounce as of writing following dollar weakness which dragged by poor consumption data.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   JPY                                          Holiday

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     CAD                                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 97.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest index to extend its losses towards the support level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.60, 98.25

Support level: 97.00, 96.35

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2945. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2945, 1.3015

Support level: 1.2845, 1.2770

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1185. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.1185, 1.1240

Support level: 1.1145, 1.1100

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remained traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the top-level of the channel at 111.75. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the bottom-level of the channel at 111.35.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.35, 110.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.7050. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7000.

Resistance level: 0.7050, 0.7090

Support level: 0.7000, 0.6930

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6670. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level 0.6630.

Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6720

Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3435. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3485.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the support level 1.0190. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.0265, 1.0310
Support level: 1.0190, 1.0100

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 63.15. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal and the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.65.

Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00

Support level: 63.15, 61.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound form the support level 1277.30. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1285.80.

Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65

Support level: 1277.30, 1268.50

30 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Inflation dulls, Fed to wait-and-see?

US dollar extended its losses on yesterday as recent data shows diminishing pace of US inflationary pressure. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.16% to 97.52 during Asian trading session. According to US Bureau of Economic Analysis, its Core PCE Price Index for the month of March slowed down to 1.6%, missing economist forecast for a rise of 1.7%. The data has further cemented Fed’s course to keep interest rate unchanged while continues to scrutinize future economic data before initiating a change in monetary policy stance. However, losses on the greenback were somehow limited after Consumer Spending (which accounts for more than two-third of US economic activity) rose 0.9% last month, beating economist forecast of 0.7%. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.02% to 1.2931. Sterling received some bullish bids on yesterday amid reports of cross-party talks between US lawmaker with regards to Brexit has been “productive” and constructive”. Positive development with regards to Brexit has bring in some optimism towards the UK market.

As for commodities, crude oil price advanced up by 0.05% to $63.49 per barrel. Oil price managed to recovered some losses on yesterday as US sanction against Iran will be enforced fully on May 2^nd, cutting off supplies from OPEC’s No. 4 producer. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.04% to $1,280.29 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   JPY                                          Holiday

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     CAD                                        BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from its prior high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60

Support level: 96.85, 95.90

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower following a successful retracement from the trendline.

Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3120

Support level: 1.2900, 1.2805

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the trendline.

Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1250

Support level: 1.1155, 1.1100

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.00

Support level: 111.45, 111.30

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.6990. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7070.

Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7145

Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6670. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6670.

Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6695

Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530

Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0225.

Resistance level: 1.0225, 1.0265

Support level: 1.0190, 1.0170

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 63.70. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 63.15.

Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65

Support level: 63.15, 61.60

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65

Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00