120717 Daily Analysis
12 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Wretched dollar as Washington mayhem brews.
US dollar held firm against other major currencies on early Wednesday trading following overnight’s sell-off after US President Donald Trump’s eldest son released a chain of email which cites Russian support for his father before last year’s election. The dollar index was held steady at around 95.35 as of writing. Donald Trump Jr. was told that a Russian prosecutor offered his father’s presidential campaign incrimination information regarding Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as part of Russian government support based on the email. Heightened political risk within Washington triggered investor’s risk aversion as it may further delay Trump’s fiscal agenda that were deemed to stoked US economy with large public spending and tax reforms. Likewise, investors will be placing their focus on US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony due later today for further signals regarding next rate hike and balance sheet reduction. Against other major currencies, euro was up 0.10% to $1.1477 against the greenback while pairing of GBP/USD tacked up 0.11% to $1.2861.
Otherwise, crude oil price rose 1.69% to $45.80 after American Petroleum Institute reported a larger than expected draw in crude oil stockpiles by 8.133 million barrels last week. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.53% to $1,220.01 due to a weaker dollar and risk aversion among investors.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
22:00 USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
22:00 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
23:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) | 2.1% | 1.8% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) | 7.3K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.75% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -6.299M | -2.850M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the bottom level. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction for GBPUSD to extend its losses thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2860, 1.2925
Support level: 1.2800, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. A closure above the level of 1.1480 would suggest EURUSD to extend its upward momentum towards the next target at 1.1530.
Resistance level: 1.1480, 1.1530
Support level: 1.1440, 1.1385, 1.1330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retracement from previous high at 114.50. Recent closure below the 20-MA line (red) suggest further downside bias for USDJPY to extend its losses towards the support level of 113.15.
Resistance level: 113.80, 114.50
Support level: 113.15, 112.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price were traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level of 45.90. Such price movement suggest its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests crude oil price to extend its uptrend after closing above the level of 45.90.
Resistance level: 45.90, 46.30
Support level: 45.45, 45.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel after recent rebound from the support level of 1207.00. A closure above the resistance level of 1220.00 would suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1220.00, 1230.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00
110717 Daily Analysis
11 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bull sedated, will Yellen resuscitate?
Greenback’s advance against other major peers slowed on Tuesday while majority of market participants awaits highly anticipated testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen due later this week. The dollar index ticked up 0.07% to 95.80 during early Asian trading hours. Analyst postulate that the next cue for the currency market will be coming from Fed’s Yellen, whereby dollar-bulls will keep an eye if she retains her hawkish view following last Friday’s robust US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Prior to this, the market has been casting doubts on the Fed’s ability to follow through with a third rate hike by year end as recent US data showed a slowdown in inflationary pressure and economic activity. On the other hand, pound sterling was held steady at around $1.2877 following overnight’s sell-off after a series of lackluster data catalyzes queries over the Bank of England’s recent summon to increase interest rate sooner. BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent will be giving his speech later in the day which may provide further clarity on central bank’s policy prospects.
As for commodities, crude oil price pared its losses by 0.63% to $44.68 while investors will be looking forward for American Petroleum Institute’s stockpile report for further market signal. Otherwise, gold price seesawed around $1,212.60 as investors awaits Yellen’s testimony due this Wednesday and Thursday for further rate hike indication.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
19:00 GBP BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Jun) | 7 | – | 9 |
| 20:15 | CAD – Housing Starts (Jun) | 194.7K | 200.0K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (May) | 6.044M | 5.950M | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.760M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD were thinly traded following prior extension of losses due to the formation of death cross by both MA lines. A successful closure below the strong support level of 1.2860 would suggest GBPUSD to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 1.2925, 1.2970
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2800
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within an ascending triangle while recently closed below the 20-moving average line (red). The closure suggests EURUSD to skew towards downside bias and move further down, towards the support level at 1.1385.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1330
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level at 114.25. MACD indicator which continues to drift outside of upward momentum suggests USDJPY to continue its oscillation in between 113.95 and 114.25 in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to extend its uptrend after closing above the level of 114.25.
Resistance level: 114.25, 114.55
Support level: 113.95, 113.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a range of 43.75 and 44.65 while currently testing at the top level. A successful closure above this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace would suggest crude oil price to extend its oscillation within the trading range.
Resistance level: 44.65, 45.00
Support level: 44.15, 43.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price were traded within the downward channel while recently retraced prior to the 20-moving average line (red). Stochastic Oscillator which begins to illustrate retracement signal from the overbought level suggests gold price to extend its downward momentum towards the support level of 1207.00.
Resistance level: 1218.00, 1230.00
Support level: 1207.00, 1197.00
100717 Weekly Analysis
10 July 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 10 – 14
Market Review (Forex): July 3 – 7
U.S. Dollar
Greenback rose against other major peers on Friday after data showed that US economy has generated jobs at a robust pace last month, supporting the expectation for a third rate hike by Federal Reserve later this year. The dollar index was up 0.21% to 95.78 during late Friday trading.
According to the US Labor Department, the economy added 222,000 jobs for the month of June, higher than expected reading of 179,000. Likewise, figures for April and May was revised to show an additional of 47,000 jobs were created than previously reported.
However, unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from a 16-year low of 4.3% in May as more people looked for work, a sign of confidence in the labor market. Likewise, wage growth remained tepid, with annual wage inflation rate of only 2.5% as compared to forecast of 2.6%.
Overall, the rapid pace of jobs growth reassured investors that the economy is on a strong note to justify the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates once more by year end.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
—– Forecast
US economy generated 222,000 jobs last month, further underpinning investors’ sentiment for another rate hike by year end.
US Unemployment Rate
—– Forecast
Overall unemployment rate ticked up 0.1% to 4.4% last month, a tad higher than previous 16-years low of 4.3%.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY touched session low of 113.11 before rebounding to 113.90 in late trade.
EUR/USD
Euro was a tad lower against the dollar, slipping off 0.21% to $1.1398.
GBP/USD
Sterling slumped to a one-week low, with pairing of GBP/USD depreciating more than 0.61% to $1.2890.
Market Review (Commodities): July 3 – 7
GOLD
Gold prices slumped to almost four-months low on Friday following a stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls reading which boosted the demand of dollar against other major currencies. Its prices were down 0.93% to $1,211.98, its lowest close since March 15th. Typically, gold prices and dollar move in opposite fashion as stronger dollar makes the appeal of gold as alternative asset for other currency bearers more expensive to be bought. Likewise, optimistic US jobs report has increased overall sentiment for another rate hike in the United States which has further dampen gold’s appeal.
Crude Oil
Oil prices fell sharply on Friday while logging in its sixth-weekly losses for the past seven weeks due to ongoing concern over supply glut in the market. Crude oil price tumbled $1.29 or 2.9% on Friday while ended the week at around $44.23 a barrel. According to oilfield service provider Baker Hughes, US drillers has added seven oil rigs in the week to July 7th, which brings the total count up to 763.
The report came after US government data showed that total domestic crude production rose by 88,000 barrels to around 9.34 million barrels last week, underlining more concern that rising US production may derail other major producer’s effort to rebalance the market. Per se, oil ministers from five countries monitoring the production cut deal will be meeting on July 24th in Russia to discuss possibility of adjusting the deal.
Previously, OPEC and some non-OPEC members had extended a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. However, the production-cut agreement has yet to yield any impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from non-participating countries such as Libya, Nigeria and United States.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
US drillers has added 7 oil rigs last week to 763 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: July 10 – 14
For the week ahead, main focus of market participants will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony on monetary policy as well as US data on inflation and retail sales. Likewise, investors will be closely monitoring UK jobs report and Bank of Canada’s policy meeting which will be set for Wednesday.
As for oil traders, investors will keep an eye for monthly reports from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and International Energy Agency to assess global supply and demand levels. Otherwise, they will also keep an eye on fresh weekly information regarding US stockpiles of crude and refined products due this Wednesday and Thursday.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 10 – 14
| Monday, July 10 |
Data CNY – CPI (YoY) (Jun) CNY – PPI (YoY) (Jun) EUR – German Trade Balance (May)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, July 11 |
Data AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Jun) CAD – Housing Starts (Jun) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (May)
Events GBP – BoE MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
|
| Wednesday, July 12 |
Data Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jun) CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events Crude Oil – OPEC Monthly Report USD – Fed Chair Yellen Testifies CAD – BoC Monetary Policy Report CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
|
| Thursday, July 13 |
Data CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – PPI (MoM) (Jun)
Events Crude Oil – IEA Monthly Report USD – Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
|
|
Friday, July 14
|
Data USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: July 10 – 14
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remained traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 96.20. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to form a retracement signa suggests dollar index to extend its losses towards the support level of 95.15.
Resistance level: 96.20, 97.50
Support level: 95.15, 94.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD were traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-moving average line (green). Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests GBPUSD to extend its gains towards the target of resistance level at 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2830, 1.2710
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of narrowing triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Both MA line which continues to expand further up suggest USDJPY to advance towards the next target at 114.75.
Resistance level: 114.75, 115.50
Support level: 113.90, 112.70
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remained traded within a range of 1.1325 and 1.1445 following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which continues to drift outside of upward momentum suggests EURUSD to oscillate within the trading range in short-term. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the trading range.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1325, 1.1210
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has extended its losses following prior breakout from the bottom level of ascending triangle. Both MA lines which continues to expand downwards suggests further downward bias for gold price to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 1200.00.
Resistance level: 1217.00, 1232.00
Support level: 1200.00, 1180.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 43.70. A closure above the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest crude oil price to extend its retracement towards the resistance level of 45.25.
Resistance level: 45.25, 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 43.70, 42.00
070717 Daily Analysis
7 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar muted ahead of NFP, pessimism looms.
Euro hovers near weekly high on Friday following the release of European Central Bank’s meeting minutes which showed that officials discussed the possibility to reduce easing bias from their monetary policy. EUR/USD ticked down 0.03% and last quoted around $1.1418. ECB policymakers postulate that it is important to stress the stronger momentum of the euro zone recovery while emphasizing that inflation pressure remained subdued. Officials were concerned that even a “small and incremental” changes to their forward guidance may spook the financial market and thus in tandem with ECB President Mario Draghi’s prior remarks to further look through possibilities on unwinding loose policies before execution. Otherwise, the dollar index was held steady at 95.56 following overnight slump due to weak private jobs report. Investors was agitated about the strength of US economy following a weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims and private sector job creation which may suggest a possible slowdown in labor market activity.
On the other hand, crude oil price skidded 1.43% to $44.83 following reports that US crude exports rose to 1.02 million barrels per day in May which put further pressure on global supply glut. Similarly, gold price depreciates by 0.10% to $1,221.01 due to higher US yields prior to the release of Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
Tentative GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) | 138K | 179K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 4.3% | 4.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (Jun) | 54.5K | 10.0K | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) | 53.8 | – | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 756 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was thinly traded near the strong resistance level of 1.2970 following prior closure above the 20-moving average line (red). MACD histogram which begins to form upward signal suggests GBPUSD to extend its upward momentum after closing above the level of 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2850
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD pared prior gains following a retrace from the resistance level of 1.1425. Currently, it is suggested to skew towards downside bias with EURUSD expected to advance towards the support level of 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1425, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1400, 1.1375
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Both moving average line which continues to expand upwards after forming golden cross suggests higher chances for a breakout to occur and signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards.
Resistance level: 113.90, 114.70
Support level: 112.70, 111.80
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following previous retracement from the resistance level of 46.05. Referring to the MACD histogram which illustrate substantial downward signal, a closure below the strong support level of 44.65 would suggest crude oil price to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 45.30, 44.05
Support level: 44.65, 44.05
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level of 1222.30. Stochastic Oscillator displays further retracement from the oversold region suggests gold price to advance further down, towards the support level of 1217.00.
Resistance level: 1222.30, 1228.00
Support level: 1217.00, 1211.00
060717 Daily Analysis
6 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bull worn-out, ambivalent minutes to be blamed.
US dollar held steady against its peers on Thursday after Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes took the wind out from its recent bullish momentum, with market participants awaiting comments by central bankers and US data for next cues. The dollar index eased 0.02% and last quoted at 95.96. Federal Reserve members continued to view the recent slowdown in inflation as transitory and insisted that it would rise to their target over the long-term. The minutes also showed that the recent economic slowdown did not deter Federal Reserve’s stance of raising interest rates gradually with most members expect it to rise to 2% by 2019. However, prior dollar-bull was derailed as the Feds left the timing of balance-sheet normalization uncertain. In the other region, pound sterling ticked down 0.04% to $1.2929 against the greenback during Asian trading hours. Sterling received selling pressure due to rising concerns over UK’s economic performance following a series of underwhelming data.
Otherwise, crude oil price mends its losses by 0.75% to $45.47 after slumping more than 4% overnight due to rising crude exports from key producers in OPEC. As for gold, price of the yellow metal as up 0.50% to $1,226.46 while investors look ahead to a series of economic data from US later in the day.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Trade Balance (May) | 0.555B | 1.100B | 2.471B |
| 15:15 | CHF – CPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | 0.0% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) | 253K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 244K | 243K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (May) | -0.2% | 2.6% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 56.9 | 56.5 | – |
| 23:00 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | 0.118M | -2.283M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2900. In short-term, GBPUSD is expected to experience retracements and oscillate in between the range of 1.2900 and 1.2970. Otherwise, its long-term trend direction will be determined after breaking either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2850
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1360. As EURUSD remained hovered in between both MA lines, it is suggested to experience brief retracement within the range 1.1300 and 1.1360. Otherwise, its long-term direction bias could only be determined after successfully breaking either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1250
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggests higher possibility for USDJPY to breaking from the bottom level and signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 113.30, 113.65
Support level: 112.95, 112.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-moving average line (green). However, MACD histogram provides substantial downside signal which suggests crude oil price to extend its losses after closing below 45.30.
Resistance level: 46.05, 47.30
Support level: 45.30, 44.65
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price extended gains following prior closure above the 60-moving average line (green). Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests gold price to move further up and retest at the strong resistance level of 1228.00.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1235.00
Support level: 1222.30, 1217.00
050717 Daily Analysis
5 July 2017 Daily Analysis
North Korea tests ICBM, investors gush to safe-haven.
US dollar slipped against the Japanese counterpart on Wednesday amid rising tension between the United States and North Korea while Canadian dollar held firm after the nation’s central bank chief backed for an interest rate hike. The dollar shed 0.21% to 113.03 against the Japanese yen while the dollar index ticked down 0.05% to 95.85. Pyongyang said on Tuesday that they had conducted a test on a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) which are able to carry large and heavy nuclear warhead, triggering a call by Washington for global action against the isolated nation and its pursuits of nuclear weapons. Pentagon condemned the missile launch and was prepared to defend United States and its allies against the growing threat from North Korea. Otherwise, the pair of USD/CAD held steady at around C$1.2940 after hitting 10-months low of C$1.2910. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz told a German newspaper that Canada’s inflation could achieve an uptrend by first half of 2018, adding that policy normalization must begin before price growth hits its target.
Likewise, crude oil price held steady at $47.09 a barrel after being supported by tentative signs that persistent rise in US crude production may be slowing. Concurrently, gold price rose 0.72% to $1,226.72 in midst of rising Korean peninsula tension.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Services PMI (Jun) | 53.8 | 53.5 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (May) | -0.2% | -0.5% | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.850M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD were traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2910. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests further upside bias for GBPUSD to advance towards the resistance level of 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2850
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound while successfully closing above the 20-moving average line (red). MACD histogram which begins to illustrate substantial upward signal suggests EURUSD to advance towards the first target at 1.1380.
Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1345, 1.1310
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retracement while recently closed below the psychological level of 113.00. Referring to MACD indicator which hovers outside of upward momentum suggests USDJPY to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target of support level at 112.50.
Resistance level: 113.00, 113.70
Support level: 112.50, 112.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price were traded flat in between the range of 46.70 and 47.50 due to lack of momentum. MACD indicator begins to drift outside of upward momentum suggests crude oil price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend further upwards.
Resistance level: 47.50, 48.40
Support level: 46.70, 46.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price were traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1222.30. Recent closure above the 23.6 Fibonacci level of 1227.00 suggests further upward bias for gold price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 1232.30.
Resistance level: 1232.30, 1236.60
Support level: 1227.00, 1222.30
040717 Daily Analysis
4 July 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback gains some footing, eyes FOMC minutes.
Greenback held onto its gains on early Tuesday following upbeat US economic data which has boosted the US Treasury yield to seven-weeks high while market participants shifts their focus to Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision. The dollar index was held steady at 95.82 after appreciating more than 0.6% overnight. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), national factory activity came in at 57.8, beating expectation of only 55.2. “The recovery in dollar was driven by direct demand as opposed to the weakness of its peers,” said Shin Kadota, senior forex strategist. “Expectations towards US Federal Reserve hiking its interest rates had fallen too low. Thus, we are now observing the lowered expectations undergoing reversals.” Meanwhile, although Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to hike its benchmark rates, traders will be scavenging for hawkish adoption from the central bank following prior similar stance from European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. Pair of AUD/USD was held unchanged at $0.7661.
Likewise, crude oil price depreciates by 0.49% to $46.84 after investors took their opportunity to cash in some profits following prior rally. Likewise, gold price rose 0.43% to $1,223.08 while investors look ahead for FOCM meeting minutes due tomorrow.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CAD Canada – Canada Day
All Day USD United States – Independence Day – Early Close at 13:00
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (Jun) | 56.0 | 55.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses following prior retracement from the recent high of 1.3030. Recent closure below the 20-moving average line (red) suggests further downward bias for GBPUSD to extend its losses towards the support level of 1.2925.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3030
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its losses following prior breakthrough from the support level of 1.1400. The MACD histogram which illustrate substantial downward signal suggests EURUSD to advance further down after successfully closing below the support level of 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1300
AUDUSD
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.7670. A closure below the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest AUDUSD to extend its losses towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.7670, 0.7690
Support level: 0.7640, 0.7620
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Referring to MACD histogram which shows substantial upward signal suggests USDJPY to extend its gains after breaking the resistance level of 113.70.
Resistance level: 113.70, 114.35
Support level: 113.00, 112.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level of 47.10. MACD indicator which started to drift outside of upward momentum suggests crude oil price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 47.10, 47.60
Support level: 46.50, 45.75
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has recently break out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Both MA lines which expands downwards after the formation of death cross suggests gold price to advance further down towards the target of 1217.00.
Resistance level: 1232.00, 1246.00
Support level: 1217.00, 1200.00
030717 Weekly Analysis
3 July 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: July 3 – 7
Market Review (Forex): June 26 – 30
U.S. Dollar
Greenback was steadied on Friday but ended the week close to nine-months low amid expectations that several major central banks around the world are getting ready to tighten their monetary policy. The dollar index was last quoted at 95.39 during late Friday trading while ended the second quarter with 4.8% of losses, its largest quarterly loss since third quarter of 2010.
Investors’ expectations for tighter monetary policy was catalyzed after governor from European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada gives hawkish view on their future monetary policy stance. The hawkish signals contrasted with doubts over US Federal Reserves’ ability to hike interest rates again this year due to recent slowdown in US economic performance and growing skepticism over Trump’s administration ability to deliver his pro-growth policies.
USD/JPY
Greenback remained resilient against the Japanese counterpart with USD/JPY rising 0.2% to 112.40 and ended with gains of 1.05%.
EUR/USD
Euro dipped 0.13% to $1.1425 due to profit seeking effort after touching one-year high.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling rose 0.16% to $1.3027 and ended the week with 2.22% of gains.
Market Review (Commodities): June 26 – 30
GOLD
Gold prices edges lower on Friday while posting its first weekly decline since March due to rising global bond yields which reduces the demand for the precious metal. Its prices were down 0.27% and closed the week at $1,242.48 while recording a loss of 1.27% for the week. However, price of the yellow metal still ended first half of the year with 8% of gains due to weaker dollar. Gold prices came under pressure amid hawkish signals given by several major central banks around the world with regards to tighten their monetary policy in the future. In the event of rising interest rates, opportunity cost for holding non-yielding asset such as gold would increase, thus placing further pressure on its prices.
Crude Oil
Crude oil price extended its gains for seventh consecutive session on Friday while logging in its biggest weekly recovery since mid-May as investors were encouraged by fresh signals of diminishing US crude production.
The report came after US government data showed that total domestic crude production fell by 100,000 barrels a day to 9.25 million barrels for the week of June 23rd. Its prices rallied $1.11 or 2.5% on Friday and ended the week at $46.04 a barrel. For the week, it has gained $3.03 or 7%. However, its prices still ended the first quarter with a loss of 9% thus far.
On Friday, US energy services company Baker Hughes reported that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil was declined by two to 756 rigs. This has marked the second time where its weekly oil rig count fell during this year after increasing for 23 weeks in a row.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
The number of active oil drilling rig was declined by 2 to 756.
Weekly Outlook: July 3 – 7
For the week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve meeting minutes for fresh cues on the timing of next interest rate hikes. Likewise, Friday’s US jobs report will also be closely watched. Employment data from Canada will be within investor’s radar amid higher speculation that BoC may raise interest rates as soon as this month.
As for oil traders, they will keep an eye on fresh weekly information regarding US stockpiles of crude and refined products due this Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, traders will also pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence on complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: July 3 – 7
| Monday, July 3 |
Data JPY – Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2) JPY – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q2) CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Jun) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
Events GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
| Tuesday, July 4 |
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul) GBP – Construction PMI (Jun)
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, July 5 |
Data Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock GBP – Services PMI (Jun) USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (May)
Events USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes
|
| Thursday, July 6 |
Data AUD – Trade Balance (May) CHF – CPI (MoM) (Jun) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (May) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, July 7
|
Data GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Jun) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) USD – Unemployment Rate (Jun) CAD – Employment Change (Jun) CAD – Ivey PMI (Jun) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks
|
Technical weekly outlook: July 3 – 7
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index extended its losses following prior formation of death cross by both moving average line. However, recent rebound from the support level of 95.15 suggests dollar index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend directions still suggest dollar index to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 96.20, 97.50
Support level: 95.15, 94.00
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remained hovered near the previous high at 1.3045 following prior closure above the 60-moving average line (green). As both MA line continues to narrow upwards, GBPUSD is expected to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level of 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2825
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle while recently rebounded from the support level of 111.80. Both moving average line which continue to narrow upwards suggests USDJPY to advance further up towards the upper level of the triangle after breaking the resistance level of 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.90
Support level: 111.80, 110.95
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following a retracement from the previous high at 1.1445. It signals EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend directions still suggest EURUSD to move further up as both moving average line continues to expand upwards.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1540
Support level: 1.1325, 1.1210
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price extended its losses following the formation of death cross by both MA lines. Its prices are expected to advance further down, towards the bottom level of ascending triangle. Any breakout from the bottom level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 1246.00, 1261.00
Support level: 1232.00, 1217.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests crude oil price to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 47.00.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.25, 43.70
300617 Daily Analysis
30 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback battered, as euro and sterling dominates.
US dollar sags against other major currencies on Friday after a mixed outcome from its economic data failed to lift investors’ confidence towards the economic giant. The dollar index which measures greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.04% to 95.27. Economic data that were released overnight showed an upward revision to the first quarter of US gross domestic product which came in at 1.4%. Economic expected it to remain constant at 1.2%. However, the better-than-expected GDP reading was offset by a weaker jobs data after US Department of Labor reported that last week’s initial jobless claims were increased by 2,000 individuals to a total of 244,000, as compared to forecast of 240,000. Mixed signals given both economic data came amid of heavy selling pressure on the US dollar after its rivals, euro and pound sterling extended its rally despite mixed signals given by both European Central Bank and Bank of England. As of writing, GBP/USD rose 0.08% to $1.3018 while euro eases 0.07% to $1.1433.
Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price added 0.42% to $45.12 while on track for its biggest weekly gains since mid-May due to a decline in US crude output. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.03% to $1,244.63 but remained under pressure as central banks hinted at tapering ultra-loose monetary policy which eroded the demand for safe haven.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (June) | 51.2 | 51.0 | 51.7 |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (June) | 54.5 | – | 54.9 |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.2% | 0.3% | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (June) | -9K | -10K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (June) | 1.4% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (May) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June) | 94.5 | 94.5 | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 758 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its rally following prior closure above the resistance level of 1.2970. Both moving average line which continues to expand upwards suggests GBPUSD to advance towards the target of resistance level at 1.3045.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2970, 1.2890
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded in an uptrend while currently remained thinly traded near the strong resistance level of 1.1445. MACD indicator which hovers outside of upward momentum suggests EURUSD to continue oscillate within the range of 1.1410 and 1.1445 in short-term as retracement period. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests EURUSD to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1410, 1.1370
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior retracement while recently closed below the 20-moving average line (red). Recent closure below the 20-moving average line suggests further downward bias for USDJPY to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level of 111.80.
Resistance level: 112.45, 113.05
Support level: 111.80, 111.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines while currently testing at the resistance level of 45.20. A successful closure above this level would suggest further upward bias towards the next target at 46.70.
Resistance level: 45.20, 46.70
Support level: 44.20, 43.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded within a descending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level. Recent rebound suggests upward bias for gold price in short-term to head towards the target of resistance level at 1250.10. Long-term trend direction only can be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1250.10, 1258.90
Support level: 1243.00, 1235.95
290617 Daily Analysis
29 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Governors blow hawkish whistle, greenback slumps.
US dollar extended its losses against a basket of six major peers following a surge in both pound sterling and Canadian dollar due to hawkish signals given by the governors of both respective central banks. The dollar index ticked down 0.02% and last seen at 95.65 during Asian trading hours. Bullish comments from both central bank governors with regards to future monetary policy stance weighed on the dollar for second day as traders speculated that both Bank of England and Bank of Canada may adopt tighter policy soon. Pound sterling surged to a post-election high of $1.2973, skyrocketed more than 1% after BoE Governor Mark Carney reversed his recent assertion of not needing to raise interest rates while hinting that “some removal of monetary policy is likely to become necessary”. Likewise, the pairing of USD/CAD fell to a four-month low at C$1.3009 after BoC Governor Stephen Poloz adopted a similar tone concerning monetary policy while reiterating that the central bank may consider hiking their benchmark rates soon as rate cuts from 2015 has done their “job”. Meanwhile, the greenback received further selling pressure following US Senate’s decision to delay a vote on health-care bill amendments to replace Obamacare, which raises doubts on Trump administration’s ability to carry out his pro-growth economic measures.
Looking into commodities, crude oil price 0.29% to $44.87 after a report showed that US crude production declined last week due to temporary factors which will likely be reversed in the coming weeks. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.16% to $1,250.03 due to a slump in the greenback as US political uncertainty resurfaced.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 241K | 240K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD has recently closed above the 60-moving average line (green) while currently testing near the resistance level of 1.2970. MACD histogram which illustrates upward signal suggests GBPUSD to advance further up after breaking the resistance level at 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2825, 1.2690
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD were traded in an uptrend following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.1410 would suggest EURUSD to extend its uptrend towards the next target at 1.1445.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1370, 1.1325
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY were traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 111.80. However, as the MACD indicator begins to hover outside of upward momentum, USDJPY may experience brief technical correction and to be traded lower in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to move further upwards after breaking the resistance level at 112.45.
Resistance level: 112.45, 113.05
Support level: 111.80, 111.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. It is expected to extend its upward momentum after successfully breaking the resistance level at 45.20.
Resistance level: 45.20, 46.70
Support level: 44.20, 43.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price seesawed near the downward trendline following prior retracement. A successful breakthrough from the downward trendline would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards thereafter and next target would be at 1258.90.
Resistance level: 1250.10, 1258.90
Support level: 1243.00, 1235.95
280617 Daily Analysis
28 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar descends further, euro marches ahead.
US dollar extended its losses against a basket of major peers following a surge in euro after European Central Bank (ECB) hinted tapering its stimulus program while Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated the need to raise interest rates gradually. The dollar index was down 1.06% to 96.08, its lowest level since October 6th. The dollar extended its losses after Yellen offered relatively little input regarding their monetary policy outlook on Tuesday, while reiterating that it is appropriate to raise interest rates gradually to a level which will likely to remain low by historical standards. In the other region, euro was last quoted at $1.1340 against the greenback, its highest level in ten-months after rallying around 1% following hawkish remarks by ECB President Mario Draghi. Draghi stated that factors weighing on inflation in the EU zone were mainly temporary, adding that the bank would look through them. In addition, he also stated that ECB sees its growth pattern above its trend and is well distributed across euro area but reiterated that “considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed while unwinding it would require wise verdict.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down 0.66% to $43.95 after a report shows rising US fuel inventories that has underscored further concern that a three-year old supply glut is far from over. Otherwise, gold price appreciates by 0.21% to $1,249.06 after the dollar fell to a seven-months low while gains remain capped due to higher prospects for an interest rate hike in the future.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
15:30 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
21:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
21:30 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
21:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) | -1.3% | 0.8% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.451M | -2.585M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its gains following prior breakout from the top level of downward channel which signifies a change in trend direction to move further upwards. However, recent retracement from the resistance level of 1.2830 would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2830, 1.2890
Support level: 1.2780, 1.2735
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its upward momentum following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. Both lines which continues to expand upwards suggests further upward bias for EURUSD after breaking the resistance level of 1.1350.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1255
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle while recently closed above the strong resistance level of 111.80. Both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards suggests USDJPY to advance further up towards the resistance level of 112.70.
Resistance level: 112.70, 113.90
Support level: 111.80, 110.95
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA lines continue to narrow upwards, a closure above the resistance level of 44.40 would suggest crude oil price to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 44.40, 45.85
Support level: 43.15, 42.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1243.00 while currently testing near the downtrend line. A successful breakout from this line would suggest further upward bias for gold price to move towards the target of resistance level at 1258.90.
Resistance level: 1250.10, 1258.90
Support level: 1243.00, 1235.95
230617 Daily Analysis
23 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Hushed trading, eyes on China banking regulator.
US dollar was little changed on early Friday trading as market participants look ahead for next week’s US inflation related indicators. The dollar index was last quoted around 97.22 against six major currencies. “While the market was able to draw incentives from the Fed last week, there are not a lot of factors for the dollar to move within this week due to the absence of major indicator release and political events,” said Shin Kadota, senior strategist in Tokyo. “However, inflation would likely be the theme that moves currencies next week which will see various US indicators. They will be key as this week’s slump in crude oil has clouded the US inflation outlook.” On the other hand, investors would also keep a close eye on China as high borrowing by some major private firms to buy assets overseas came under scrutiny of the country’s bank regulator. Reports overnight said that China’s banking regulator has asked large lender to check credit risk profiles of several companies that borrowed heavily in US dollar to buy assets abroad. However, details were sparse and there is no immediate indication on the extent of exposure. Against other major peers, euro ticked down 0.03% to $1.1149 while USD/JPY rose 0.04% to 111.38.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.33% to $42.88 while market participants look ahead to US rig count figures to monitor if recent plunge in prices would cause a re-evaluation of drilling plans. Likewise, gold price was up 0.21% to $1,250.18 due to higher risk-aversion demand following the report whereby some Chinese companies were under the scrutiny of country’s bank regulator.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:15 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
00:40 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
02:15 USD FOMC Member Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (June) | 59.5 | 59.0 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.0% | – | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (MoM) (May) | 569K | 597K | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 747 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remained traded within a downward channel while recently closed above the 20-moving average line (red). It is suggested to be traded higher, towards the top level of the channel after a successful closure above the resistance level of 1.2710.
Resistance level: 1.2710, 1.2800
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2550
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the strong support level of 1.1140. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests EURUSD to advance further up and retest at the resistance level of 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1190
Support level: 1.1140, 1.1100
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the top level. Both moving average line which continues to narrow upwards suggests higher possibility for a breakout to occur from the top level and signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 111.45, 111.75
Support level: 111.10, 110.80
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the lower level. Such rebound suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term, towards the resistance level of 43.00. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests crude oil price to remain traded within a downward channel unless a breakout occur at either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 43.00, 44.20
Support level: 42.00, 41.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price were traded higher after rebounding from the support level of 1247.00. It is suggested to extend its upward momentum after successfully breaking the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 1253.70.
Resistance level: 1253.70, 1261.75
Support level: 1247.00, 1240.65
220617 Daily Analysis
22 June 2017 Daily Analysis
US dollar retreats as equity market snapped.
US dollar slipped from its prior one-month peak against other major peers on Thursday as losses on Wall Street shares spurred investors to book their profits that are tied to expectations of possibly another interest rate hike by year end. The dollar index sheds 0.20% to 97.15, shying away from one-month high of 97.50. Last week, US Federal Reserve raised their benchmark rates by 25 basis points as widely expected while Fed Chair Janet Yellen downplayed recent signs of inflation softening, catalyzing higher prospects upon the central bank to follow through its plans to have three rate hikes in 2017. “It’s a bit of a pushback from equity space while the market is still digesting what Yellen had said,” explained Jason Leinwand, senior currency strategist. Likewise, pound sterling held gains this morning after Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane stated that he will support for a British rate hike this year. Likewise, investors will be closely watching political developments in Britain with Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party still in talks with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to form a new government. The pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.03% to $1.2675 during Asian trading hours.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.33% to $42.67, hovering near 10-months low of $42.02. Although Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected draw in crude and gasoline stockpiles, investors are looking for more signs that output cuts led by OPEC are giving substantial results in ending the three-year supply glut. In a similar notion, gold price rose 0.69% to $1,252.01 as cheaper oil price pushed down stock markets while boosting the demand for safe haven assets due to risk aversion.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
05:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 237K | 240K | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.7% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the 20-moving average line (red). It is suggested to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 1.2630 in short-term. Likewise, it is suggested to be traded within the downward channel unless a breakout occur at either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.2710, 1.2800
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2550
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. A closure above the resistance level of 1.1170 would suggest EURUSD to extend its upward momentum towards the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1205
Support level: 1.1140, 1.1100
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 111.60 while recently closing below the 20-moving average line (red). USDJPY is expected to extend its losses after successfully breaking the support level of 110.90.
Resistance level: 111.60, 112.10
Support level: 110.90, 110.30
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Such rebound suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term towards the resistance level of 43.00. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests crude oil price to extend its trading within the downward channel unless a breakout occur at its either side.
Resistance level: 43.00, 44.20
Support level: 42.00, 41.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price has extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. Recent closure above the 23.6 Fibonacci level of 1250.10 suggests gold price to advance further up towards the target of resistance level at 1256.00.
Resistance level: 1256.00, 1260.70
Support level: 1250.10, 1247.00
210617 Daily Analysis
21 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Low oil price pauses dollar-bull.
US dollar hovers near one-month high while pound sterling threaded water at two-months low after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shot down hopes for an interest rate hike in the near-term. The dollar index was last quoted around 97.33. Overnight, the greenback extended its prior gains following higher expectation that US Federal Reserve will follow through their plan for another rate hike at the end of the year. However, its bullish advance was stalled as US Treasury yields losses its momentum following a big drop in oil prices. “Lower crude prices could weaken inflationary pressure and in turn would halt the rise in US yields,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist. “US inflation indicators have not been strong to start with. Now that oil prices are falling, it could add further pressure to the dollar by weakening overall sentiment towards US energy sector.” In the other region, pound sterling was down 0.05% to $1.2625 not far from two-months low of $1.2600. Sterling took a hit after BoE’s Carney said that it is not the time to raise the benchmark rates due to mixed signals from their economy and subdued wage growth.
In the commodities market, crude oil price held steady around seven-months low at $43.49 while investors remained unconvinced with OPEC’s effort due to continuous rise in the US shale industry. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.33% to $1,245.05, supported by sell-offs in the equity market. However, upside bias for gold price remained limited due to rising expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise their interest rates by year-end.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) | 9.65B | 7.00B | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (May) | 5.57M | 5.55M | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.661M | -2.106M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was thinly traded following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2600. As the MACD indicator suggests diminished downward momentum, GBPUSD may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests it to extend its downtrend after breaking the support level of 1.2600.
Resistance level: 1.2640, 1.2700
Support level: 1.2600, 1.2550
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. It is suggested to be traded higher in short-term, towards the resistance level of 1.1140. EURUSD is expected to be traded within the downward channel unless a breakout occurs from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.1140, 1.1190
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1055
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement and closure below the support level of 111.60. As the MACD indicator suggests weak upward momentum, a closure below the 20-moving average line would suggest USDJPY to extend its technical correction towards the support level of 110.90.
Resistance level: 111.60, 112.25
Support level: 110.90, 110.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended its losses following prior retracement from the resistance level of 45.30. With regards to both MA lines which continues to expand downwards, it suggests higher possibility for a breakout from the bottom level of the downward channel and may signal a change in trend direction thereafter.
Resistance level: 45.30, 48.30
Support level: 43.00, 41.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 1241.10. A closure above the resistance level of 1247.00 would suggests gold price to extend its technical correction towards the 23.6 Fibonacci level of 1250.45.
Resistance level: 1247.00, 1250.45
Support level: 1241.10, 1237.55
200617 Daily Analysis
20 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Hawkish signals invigorate greenback.
Greenback hits three-weeks high against the Yen on Tuesday after an influential Federal Reserve official gave hawkish signal that has lifted market expectations for the Fed to keep its interest hike pace. Pair of USD/JPY rose 0.11% to 111.65 while the dollar index was held steady at 97.15. Sentiment surrounding the dollar was invigorated after New York Fed President William Dudley said that tightening in the labor market should help to drive up inflation. This has offset prior concerns among investors that stubbornly low inflationary pressure may prevent the Fed from raising interest rates further this year. “Inflation is a little lower than what we would like, but we think that if the labor market continues to tighten, wages will gradually pick up and with that, inflation will gradually get back to 2 percent,” William Dudley told to a local business group in New York. The rise in dollar pegged back the euro and pound as Dudley’s hawkish comment came amid the official start of Brexit negotiation between UK and EU. Likewise, the dollar continued to strengthen against the Japanese counterpart as Bank of Japan were reluctant to taper its bond purchasing stimulus.
In the commodities market, crude oil price edge up 0.20% to $44.52 while upside remains limited as investors focus on the persistent rise of crude supply which could undermined efforts done by OPEC and other producers. Similarly, gold price was last seen at $1,244.57 while remained under pressure due to hawkish signals that gives further support to US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
15:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
19:45 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
20:00 USD FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks
03:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 2.750M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD has recently broke out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. A successful closure below the support level of 1.2730 would signal further downward bias towards the next target at 1.2690.
Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2840
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2690
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. As Stochastic Oscillator begins to illustrate rebound signal from oversold region, a successful rebound from this level would suggests EURUSD to advance towards the target of resistance level at 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1200
Support level: 1.1140, 1.1100
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the resistance level of 111.80. MACD histogram illustrates increasing upward momentum while both MA lines begins to curve upwards suggests USDJPY to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level of 111.80.
Resistance level: 111.80, 112.70
Support level: 110.95, 109.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 44.20. A closure above the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest crude oil price to move further up, towards the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 45.30, 46.70
Support level: 44.20, 43.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price has extended its losses following the downward expansion of both MA lines while heading downwards. Recent closure below the support level of 1245.40 suggests further downward bias for gold price to move further down towards the next target at 1231.65.
Resistance level: 1245.40, 1255.05
Support level: 1231.65, 1214.15