Daily Analysis

18 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback flat over lack of sentiment, Loonie falls.

Dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currency pairs edged higher by 0.02% to 96.62 during early Asian trading session after traded flat on Wednesday. With most of the major markets getting ready for their Good Friday holiday, the lack of momentum in the market caused investors to be cautious while awaiting further catalyst to gauge the market. According to recent trade war developments, both US and Chinese officials are currently scheduling more face-to-face trade talks in hope to reach a deal by May. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to travel to Beijing during the week of April 29 while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to travel to Washington the week after for further negotiations and hopefully to reach a deal by then. In other news, pair of USD/CAD was up by 0.09% to 1.3350 following yesterday’s release of poor Core CPI data. The inflation data fell to 0.3% from previous reading of 0.7% which spiraled fears that Canada’s Central Bank (BoC) might suggest for a rate cut in their policy meeting due next week. Besides that, pressure in the oil market further weakened the asset-backed currency.

As for commodities, crude oil price fell by 0.06% to $63.68 per barrel despite an unexpected fall in the crude’s inventory level. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories fell to 1.396M which was surprisingly lower than its forecasted value of just 1.200M. However, recent reports from Russia regarding their possible abandonment of OPEC’s production cut plan after June which would highly affect oil prices had since pressured oil bulls. Likewise, gold prices fell by 0.03% to $1273.35 per troy ounce amid increasing risk appetite in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a downward symmetrical triangle following recent rebound from the support level 96.45. Due to lack of momentum and signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further clear signal appear such as breakout above the top of the triangle of support level to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.40, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.3020. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.3115.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1325. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its downward momentum towards the support level 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 112.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 111.80.

Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70

Support level: 111.80, 111.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7165. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7225

Support level: 0.7165, 0.7130

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 0.6720. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.6770.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815

Support level: 0.6720, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 1.3295. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3380.

Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.0080. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction towards back the support level 1.0080.

Resistance level: 1.0115, 1.0170

Support level: 1.0080, 1.0035

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following prior retracement from the resistance level 64.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 63.15.

Resistance level: 64.55, 65.85

Support level: 63.15, 61.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1272.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1280.85.

Resistance level: 1280.85, 1287.00

Support level: 1272.05, 1264.60

17 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

China shines, AUD flies.

Australian dollar extended its gains during Asian trading session following better-than-expected economic data from its major trade partner – China. Official data from China showed that its economy expanded at an annualized rate of 6.4% for the first quarter of 2019, exceeding economist forecast for a growth of up to 6.3%. The data confounded investors’ worries over a possible slowdown in the world’s second largest economy after International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave bearish assessments with regards to global economic growth for the year 2019. As of writing, the pair of AUD/USD rose 0.16% to 0.7187, its highest level in 8-weeks. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD recovered its losses by 0.17% to 1.1300 this morning. Euro received tremendous bearish selloff on yesterday following dovish rhetoric given by the European Central Bank (ECB). According to ECB, they expressed their doubts over prior economic projection and its model used as they are deemed too optimistic. Such signal has further piled up market concern over the economic progression in EU as recent data portrays some recessive risk in the region.

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.19% to $64.43 per barrel. Oil prices extended its gains following the release of bullish China data which has eased market concern over global economic recession. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,276.83 a troy ounce due to diminishing risks in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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21.00                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of downward channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.35.

Resistance level: 96.75, 97.05

Support level: 96.35, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 1.3065.

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3105

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2935

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1280. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1320.

Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1255

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 112.00. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.40.

Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35

Support level: 111.40, 110.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7195. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7195.

Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7215

Support level: 0.7175, 0.7145

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6705.  MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6740.

Resistance level: 0.6740, 0.6780

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6675

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3345. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.3345.

Resistance level: 1.3390, 1.3440

Support level: 1.3345, 1.3290

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0065. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.0065.

Resistance level: 1.0090, 1.0120

Support level: 1.0065, 1.0030

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 64.50. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 64.50.

Resistance level: 64.50, 65.95

Support level: 63.45, 62.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher from the lower level while currently testing the resistance level at 1277.05. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to extend gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1277.05.

Resistance level: 1277.05, 1284.05

Support level: 1266.30, 1254.50

17 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar rose despite weak industrial production.

Greenback measuring its value against a basket of six major currency pairs inched higher 0.08% to 96.72 as of writing despite recent weak release of U.S Industrial Production data. According to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, production in U.S factories and manufacturing have slumped to -0.1%, weaker than market expectation with the reading of 0.2% which added to expectations of FED to stay on pause for policy rate plans. However, sentiment remains positive following the rise of U.S equity and treasury yields help supporting the greenback currently. Investors will continue to focus on upcoming developments and data that could affect the U.S market conditions to determine further direction. On the other hand, New Zealand Kiwi suffered huge loss and plummeted 0.83% to 0.6703 at the time of writing following disappointing CPI. According to the official data release by Statistics New Zealand, the CPI figure came in 0.1%, lagging behind the forecasted reading of 0.3% which further strengthening the expectations of RBNZ’s rate cut plan in May. Besides that, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr also stated in his interview that the New Zealand Kiwi is in “happy space” and possibility Q1 inflation undershooting forecasts already factored into bank’s dovish bias.

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.12% to $64.39 per barrel as of writing following latest supply data. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.1 million for the week ended April 12. At the same time, tensions in Libya and failing Venezuelan and Iranian exports due to U.S sanctions continue to boosting the appeal of the commodity. However, as recent reports on Moscow to end oil cut deal with OPEC, market will shift their focus towards the development as the ditch will cause heavy disruption in the oil market. On the other hand, gold price extend its losses by 0.08% $1276.10 a troy ounce at the time of writing following investor returned to risk-on mode due to recovering dollar and Venezuela heavy dump on the yellow metal.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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21.00                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.40, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the narrowing triangle. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3010.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3145

Support level: 1.3010, 1.2965

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1280. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1.1340.

Resistance level: 1.1340, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 112.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.40.

Resistance level: 112.40, 113.00

Support level: 112.00, 111.45

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7180. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7155.

Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7220

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6705. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing its candle below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6625

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3355. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal and the formation death cross suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower back towards the support level 1.3355.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3440

Support level: 1.3355, 1.3295

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.0070. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 1.0070.

Resistance level: 1.0105, 1.0160

Support level: 1.0070, 1.0030

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level at 63.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.65.

Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00

Support level: 63.70, 62.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1274.10. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 1283.80, 1295.65

Support level: 1274.10, 1268.00

16 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD collapse after RBA signals rate cut.

Aussie dollar slips further, reacting to dovish meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier today. According to the minutes, RBA stated that the likelihood for a near-term interest rate hike remains low due to subdued economic performance in the region. However, the board remains open for an interest rate cut if underlying inflation remains low while coupled with upward trend of unemployment rate. In addition, RBA projected that the inflationary pressure is likely to remain muted for the time being despite robust performance in the employment market. Following the release, market participants reacted negatively towards the dovish outlook from RBA and thus knee-jerking the pair of AUD/USD to slip 0.37% to 0.7147. On the other hand, other major currencies in the market remained confined in a tight range as they await the release of economic data from European and Chinese counterpart to gain more signals. Most investors remained fixated upon the global economy due to recent sluggish economic performance and lower forecasted growth rate. As of writing, the dollar index was flat at 96.51 while pair of EUR/USD ticked down 0.04% to 1.1303.

In terms of commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.38% to $63.30 per barrel. Oil futures was dumped in the financial market after Russian minister said that the nation and OPEC may increase their crude output in order to fight for market share with the US. Otherwise, gold price slipped 0.18% to $1,285.55 a troy ounce after US Treasury Steven Mnuchin noted that Washington and Beijing are inching closer to “the final round” of their trade negotiation. Such hints have dialed down market’s risk aversion and thus reducing the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 96.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.05.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.60

Support level: 96.35, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3105. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3065.

Resistance level: 1.3105, 1.3140

Support level: 1.3065, 1.3020

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1320. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1255

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 112.00. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.40.

Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35

Support level: 111.40, 110.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7145. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.7145.

Resistance level: 0.7175, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7125

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6740.  MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6780.

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6820

Support level: 0.6740, 0.6715

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3390. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3345.

Resistance level: 1.3390, 1.3440

Support level: 1.3345, 1.3290

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which display bearish bias momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0030.

Resistance level: 1.0065, 1.0090

Support level: 1.0030, 1.0005

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 64.50. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 62.85.

Resistance level: 64.50, 65.95

Support level: 62.85, 61.80

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1284.05.  MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest gold to extend losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1284.05.

Resistance level: 1293.20, 1300.25

Support level: 1284.05, 1277.05

16 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar pressured by Trump’s criticism, upbeat data limited losses.

Greenback measuring its value against a basket of six major currency pairs edged lower by 0.02% to 96.50 during early Asian trading session following President Donald Trump’s tweet regarding poor economic growth due to Fed’s decision to tighten monetary policy. In his tweet, Trump criticized that if the Fed did its job properly, both the stock market and GDP would be higher than it is now. Although in the last FOMC meeting where the Fed signaled that they will hold their ‘wait and see’ approach towards further rate hike, however if the 2^nd quarter growth is doing well, Fed will most likely be open to raise hike sooner. Besides that, yesterday release of upbeat NY state manufacturing index which exceed its expectation with the reading of 10.10 vs 6.70 help limits dollar fall, keeping the greenback strong above 96.40 level. In other news, pair of USD/CAD was up by 0.12% to 1.3375 amid Bank of Canada (BoC) dovish business outlook survey. According to BoC’s quarterly report, the bank stated that business sentiment had softened in the first quarter of 2019, with their outlook indicator plunging from 2.2 to a low of -0.6. The bank also stated that although expectations for sales remained on the upside, however several business are now more pessimistic about the market’s demand. Furthermore, the commodity-backed currency was further pressured as crude oil pared its last week’s gains on Monday.

As for commodities, crude oil price was continuing its bearish momentum while falling by 0.28% to $63.36 per barrel amid growing concerns on Russia’s commitment to OPEC cuts. Last Saturday, Moscow showed its reluctance to further output cuts with OPEC+ beyond June as their worries of losing market share to US crude grew. According to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, both Russia and OPEC may decide to boost output to fight for market share with the US although it may risk in fall of oil prices to as low as $40 per barrel. Investors will now focus on key inventory data due later today by the American Petroleum Institute to further gauge the oil market. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.08% to $1286.55 per troy ounce following the large sales of $400M worth of gold by Venezuela amid its sanctions from the US.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.45. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, a breakout below the support level or rebound from the support level is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.45, 96.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the MA line 50 (red). Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the nearest resistance level or below the nearest support level before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1325. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1325, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1245

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following prior retracement from the resistance level 112.10. However, MACD which display bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 111.75.

Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70

Support level: 111.75, 111.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7155.

Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6770. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3380. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3380, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 1.0035. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.0055.

Resistance level: 1.0055, 1.0085

Support level: 1.0035, 1.0005

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 63.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 64.55.

Resistance level: 64.55, 65.85

Support level: 63.15, 61.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1287.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1296.40.

Resistance level: 1296.40, 1310.70

Support level: 1287.00, 1280.85

15 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD in bid following positive China data.

Australian dollar received higher demand in the FX market following better-than-expected monetary data from China – one of Australia’s largest trade partner. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.08%, last seen around 0.7177 during mid-Asian trading session. For the month of March, New Loans rose to 1690 billion Yuan, significantly higher than forecasted reading of 1250 billion Yuan. Similarly, China’s export improved to a reading of 14.2% for the month of March after falling down by 20.8% for the month prior. Both reports show resilient market momentum in terms of China’s economy and expansion while dialing down market fears over a possible slowdown. Due to improvement in risk sentiment, most investors shifted their capital from safe-haven assets to riskier offerings in the market such as New Zealand dollar and Euro. As such, pair of USD/JPY rose 0.03% to 111.98.

In terms of commodities, crude oil price slumped 0.11% to $63.66 per barrel. Oil prices slumped after OPEC and Russia was reported to ditch oil curb deal in order to fight for market share with the United States. If the deal was being abandoned, oil prices may slump sharply to as low as $40 per barrel or even lesser. As such, investors will continue to scrutinize developments in between OPEC and its allies to obtain further market signals. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.20% to $1,286.18 a troy ounce due to higher demand for risky assets in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 96.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest index to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 96.40.

Resistance level: 97.05, 97.60

Support level: 96.40, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3100. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3140

Support level: 1.3055, 1.3005

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1280. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1320.

Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1255

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 112.05. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.40.

Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35

Support level: 111.40, 110.85

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7175. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.7175.

Resistance level: 0.7175, 0.7195

Support level: 0.7145, 0.7120

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level near 0.6775. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6775.

Resistance level: 0.6775, 0.6820

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6715

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3345. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3290.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3390

Support level: 1.3290, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the upward trend line. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 1.0030, 1.0065

Support level: 1.0005, 0.9965

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 63.45. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 63.45.

Resistance level: 64.55, 65.95

Support level: 63.45, 61.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1293.20. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 1293.20.

Resistance level: 1293.20, 1300.25

Support level: 1285.50, 1277.05

15 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar fall amid poor consumer sentiment, pound gains from Brexit extension.

Dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currency pairs was falling by 0.07% to 96.47 during early Asian trading session while being pressured by poor consumer sentiment. According to the University of Michigan, its consumer sentiment fell to 96.9, missing economists’ expectation of 98.1 while indicating a worsening consumer sentiment in US economic conditions. Besides that, recent Brexit developments had since increase investors’ risk appetite as they shift their portfolio from the dollar market to the pound last week, right after greenback extended its gains for three-weeks in a row. Investors will now focus on future economic data such as its March Retail Sales to further gauge the momentum of dollar. In other news, pair of GBP/USD edged higher by 0.07% to 1.3088 as of writing following EU’s approval for a longer Brexit extension to 31^st October while the UK are struggling to approve a deal right before the next European’s general election. Although the chance of no-deal Brexit had been lowered, the threat of longer-term economic damage as well as higher domestic political risks from Brexit limited the gains from the pound. Despite the holiday seasons, UK Parliament is expected discuss a new compromised plan this week to overcome the Brexit deadlock and hopefully to reach a deal where Prime Minister May will then seek approval from the EU.

As for commodities, crude oil price was furthering its depreciation by 0.49% to $63.43 per barrel on Monday following prior to the release of Saturday’s oil rig count data. According to Baker Hughes, the number of oil rig had increased by 2 while indicating a possible increase in crude inventories. Recent reports also showed that Russia and OPEC may discuss for a boost production during the OPEC+ meeting in June. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.18% to $1287.95 per troy ounce amid investors’ heightened risk appetite in the FX market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.45. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, a breakout below the support level or rebound from the support level is required to attain further confirmation.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.45, 96.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the MA line 50 (red). Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the nearest resistance level or below the nearest support level before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3115, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3020, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1325. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.1280.

Resistance level: 1.1325, 1.1395

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1245

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 112.10. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 111.75.

Resistance level: 112.10, 112.70

Support level: 111.75, 111.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7195. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7155.

Resistance level: 0.7195, 0.7225

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6770. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction in short term towards the support level 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3365. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, a breakout above the nearest resistance level or support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3365, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 1.0025. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breaks above the resistance level 1.0025.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 1.0000, 0.9965

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 63.15. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 63.15.

Resistance level: 64.55, 65.85

Support level: 63.15, 61.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1287.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1296.40.

Resistance level: 1296.40, 1310.70

Support level: 1287.00, 1280.85

12 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Greenback droops albeit limited by optimistic data.

Dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies have edge lower by 0.19% to 96.55 at the time of writing after investors book their profit following price surge due to robust data. The data which was released on Thursday have displayed that U.S jobless claims have dropped to 196K which is 1/2-year low, indicating that US labor market remains stable and resilient. In addition, US Producer prices increased by 0.6%, its largest upsurge since October 2018. Due to the lack of market catalyst as of now, investors book their gains while currently remain in focus upon future economic releases from the region. On the other hand, AUD/USD fell 0.05% to 0.7125 following the release of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Financial Stability Review report. According to the report, RBA stated that overall growth forecasts is being revised lower while noting significant risks in Australia. At the same time, the report also stated there are various vulnerabilities upon key trading partners and global financial system.

As for commodities, crude oil price extended its depreciation by 0.06% to $63.73 per barrel as of writing following plans of OPEC to mull output hike. Recent reports stated that OPEC may raise output in July if Venezuelan and Iranian supplies fall further and prices keep rallying due to persistent production cuts with Russia and other allies. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.05% to $1292.53 a troy ounce as the safe-haven metal pressured by a rebound in US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from upper levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its retracement towards the support level 96.45.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.45, 95.70

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3100.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3185

Support level: 1.3020, 1.2965

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1.1280. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1335.

Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1400

Support level: 1.1280, 1.1230

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 111.80. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 111.80, 112.35

Support level: 111.45, 110.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level of 0.7130. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155

Support level: 0.7095, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was higher following prior rebound from low-levels. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6745.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6720, 0.6660

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its top-levels. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3335.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3440

Support level: 1.3335, 1.3295

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.0030. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9980.

Resistance level: 1.0030, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9980, 0.9935

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher after successfully closing above the previous resistance level 63.70. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 64.65.

Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00

Support level: 63.70, 62.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 1295.65. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 1295.65.

Resistance level: 1295.65, 1304.00

Support level: 1287.50, 1280.10

12 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Greenback rebounds, but for how long?

US dollar rebounds sharply on yesterday following optimistic wholesale inflation data and jobless claims which helped to ease investors’ concerns over Federal Reserve interest rate cut possibility. The dollar index was quoted up 0.23% to 96.75 against six major currencies. According to US Labor Department, Core Producer Price Index for the month of March rose by 0.3%, beating economists’ forecast for a rise of 0.2%. In addition, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 8,000 individuals to a total of only 196,000, significantly lower than forecast for a rise up to 211,000. Both reports were released a day after Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes shows that majority of policymakers expected the central bank to held off from raising interest rates further for the year 2019. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD pared some losses by 0.09% to 1.1260 during Asian trading session. On yesterday, euro received tremendous bearish pressure following optimistic economic data from the US. Likewise, overall sentiment towards the EU zone is tilted towards bearish following gloomy economic outlook and sentiment given by the European Central Bank prior.

As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.06% to $63.62 per barrel. Oil prices extended its losses after International Energy Agency noted that demand is a “very important” factor in oil market rebalancing and it is being jeopardized by higher risk of diminishing economic growth. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.01% to $1,292.54 a troy ounce following a sharp rebound in US dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.50, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance near 1.3110. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term correction following a successful rebound from the bottom.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1255, 1.1230

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 111.75.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.45, 111.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.7115.

Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7090

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 0.6720. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.6720.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6720, 0.6700

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the mid-level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3400.

Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3435

Support level: 1.3370, 1.3340

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 0.9995. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.0040.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term after closing above 63.70.

Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65

Support level: 62.80, 61.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 1295.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal may suggests its prices to extend its losses in mid-term, towards the lower level of the downward channel.

Resistance level: 1295.65, 1302.50

Support level: 1284.15, 1275.30

11 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar pressured by poor sentiment; euro pared losses.

Dollar index which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies inched lower by 0.02% to 96.48 ahead of European trading session while remain pressured by FOMC meeting minutes which reaffirmation of the Fed’s previous dovish stance on Wednesday. In the meeting minutes, Fed decided to keep rate hike on pause throughout this year with the poor economic outlook. Further pressuring the dollar was a lower than expected CPI reading on Tuesday which provide further confirmation in the slowdown of US economic activity. While the news from FOMC are being digested, investors now focus on key economic data from China regarding their trade figures and first quarter growth to further gauge market sentiment. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.06% to 1.1280 as of writing amid Brexit extension and ECB’s continuous ultra-loose monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi highlighted the growing risks of the euro zone economy along with a set of weak economic data and noted that the bank will consider the impact of its negative rates as well as the new Targeted Longer-term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO) and to make any adjustments accordingly to help support its economy.

As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.28% to $64.25 per barrel amid build up in crude’s inventory as well as pressure from Russia’s comment on crude oil price. According to Russian official Kirill Dmitriev, situation in oil market are improving and the price reached a suitable level for Russia. Thus, they might consider to decide on abandoning its production cut during the OPEC meeting in June. Likewise, gold price fell by 0.07% to $1,307.00 a troy ounce due higher risk appetite in the market amid Brexit positive developments.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     CrudeOIL                               IEA Monthly Report

Tentative                              CrudeOIL              OPEC Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.45. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 97.00.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.50, 96.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3185.

Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3045, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.1275. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1215

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 111.30.

Resistance level: 111.30, 111.75

Support level: 110.95, 110.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.7155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.7190, 0.7225

Support level: 0.7155, 0.7130

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6770. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6725.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3365.

Resistance level: 1.3365, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.0025. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.0000.

Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055

Support level: 1.0000, 0.9965

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 64.60. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 62.75.

Resistance level: 64.60, 65.90

Support level: 62.75, 61.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1310.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1293.55.

Resistance level: 1310.70, 1323.10

Support level: 1293.55, 1287.00

11 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

No rate hike for the year?

Greenback fell against other major currencies following the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes which portrays dovishness among majority of policymakers. The dollar index was quoted down 0.10% to 96.47 as of writing. According to the minutes, majority of policymakers expecting the interest rates to remain steady for the year. In terms of economy however, Fed forecasted that the US real GDP growth may slow down “markedly” for the first quarter due to “softening in growth of both consumer spending and business investment”. However, they expect economic activity to rebound in the second quarter but expecting its GDP growth rate to be generally slower pace when compared to 2018. In general, the meeting minutes met eye-to-eye with investors expectation whereby significant recessive risk in the market would force Federal Reserve to keep interest rate at a low level for longer period of time. For the time being, market participants would continue to scrutinize upon US economic data in order to gain more signals. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.02% to 1.3093 during Asian trading session. According to reports, European Union leaders have offered to delay Brexit until 31^st October with a summit in June for a review on the current Brexit situation. The cut off in October means that the UK will leave EU before the next EU Commission takes the office, limiting their entanglement in the next phase of European business.

As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.16% to $64.28 per barrel. Oil prices receives some bearish pressure after EIA reported a large build up in crude inventories by 7.03 million barrels, missing economist forecast for a reduction of 2.3 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.03% to $1,308.53 a troy ounce due to weaker dollar and rising risk in the market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:00                     CrudeOIL              IEA Monthly Report

Tentative              CrudeOIL               OPEC Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below the support level at 96.50. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses, towards the direction of 95.95.

Resistance level: 96.50, 97.00

Support level: 95.95, 95.65

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3100. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 1.3100.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.1275. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up after closing above the target of 1.1275.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1255, 1.1230

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45

Support level: 110.50, 110.00

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 0.7180, 0.7200

Support level: 0.7150, 0.7130

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.

Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6700

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3300.

Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3370

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 64.65. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00

Support level: 63.70, 62.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1311.40, 1321.00

Support level: 1302.50, 1295.65

10 April 2019                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar wobbles following fresh global trade tensions.

Dollar index have pared its gains against a basket of six major currency pairs as investors’ fear heightened following new global trade dispute. According to recent reports, U.S Trade Representative have proposed a list of European Union products that ranging from large commercial aircraft to dairy products and wine which worth $11 billion to slap tariffs as a retaliation for European aircraft subsidies. At the same time, International Monetary Fund have also reduced its global growth forecast for 2019 to only 3.3 percent, the slowest expansion since 2016 when compared to its earlier projection of 3.5 percent. On the front, market remain focused on upcoming Fed meeting to determine further sentiment for the greenback Dollar index fell 0.02% to 96.58 as of writing. Meanwhile, AUD/USD gains 0.18% to 0.7132 at the time of writing following upbeat comments from RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle. According to his statement, labour markets in Australia have been surprising strong as leading indicators of employment remains solid. Besides that, he also stated that central bank can lower policy rate if needed, however, still expect a decent growth in the economy. Thus, the upbeat remarks have boosted market confidence in Aussie, thus pushing the price higher as the Aussie are currently in demand.

As for commodities market, crude oil price have gave up part of its gains and slip 0.19% to $64.09 per barrel as of writing following increased inventories. According to reports from American Petroleum Institute (API), crude inventory build for the week have increased 4.091 million, higher than previous reading which is 2.963 million. However, crude oil sentiment remains solid in overall as market remains positive following ongoing OPEC tightening supply movement and sanction against Iran and Venezuela continue to support the demand for the commodity. Market will focus on upcoming data such as further inventories data from EIA to determine further direction. On the other hand, gold price edge higher 0.05% to $1302.45 a troy ounce following weakening dollar amid potential new global dispute.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:45                     EUR                                        ECB Monetary Policy Statement

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

02:00 (11^th)          USD                                        FOMC Meeting Minutes

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support near 96.50. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.60

Support level: 96.50, 96.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat after rebounding from its lower levels. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.3085 or below the support level 1.3000 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.

Resistance level: 1.3085, 1.3180

Support level: 1.3000, 1.2915

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement near the resistance level 1.1290. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1250.

Resistance level: 1.1290, 1.1340
Support level: 1.1250, 1.1215

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 110.95. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower back to the support level 100.95.

Resistance level: 111.45, 112.00

Support level: 110.95, 110.35

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 0.7115. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7150.

Resistance level: 0.7150, 0.7190

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 MA-line (green). MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6775.

Resistance level: 0.6775, 0.6820

Support level: 0.6730, 0.6685

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 1.3290. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3350.

Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400

Support level: 1.3290, 1.3245

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 0.9980. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the top level of the channel at 1.0010.

Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0040

Support level: 0.9980, 0.9950

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 63.95. MACD which illustrate negative divergence signal and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.

Resistance level: 64.80, 66.20

Support level: 63.95, 63.30

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1305.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1299.50.

Resistance level: 1305.50, 1315.00

Support level: 1299.50, 1293.00

10 April 2019                       Morning Session Analysis

Trump slaps European Union with tariffs.

US dollar extended its losses on Tuesday following higher demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating trade tension between US and EU. US President Donald Trump announced on yesterday that Washington would impose tariffs upon $11 billion worth of products from the European Union, a day after US trade officials proposed a list of products that will be targeted as part of ongoing aircraft dispute. The dispute over government subsidies given to Boeing and European rival Airbus was tied up in ligation since 2004. However, World Trade Organization announced last May that EU subsidies to Airbus are illegal. Following tariff announcement from the US, EU said that it will stand ready to launch countermeasures against the measure, heightening global trade tension into the next level. Likewise, US dollar received additional bearish pressure following weaker-than-expected job openings as reported by JOLTs. Safe-haven demand was also being fueled further after International Monetary Fund (IMF) cuts its global growth outlook to the lowest level since the financial crisis. Bearish outlook while coupled with more trade disputes has further soured market sentiment, raising the appeal of safe-haven towards traders. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.03% to 96.57 while pair of USD/JPY slumped 0.05% to 111.16.

On the other hand, crude oil price slipped 0.17% to $64.06 per barrel this morning. Oil futures took a dip on yesterday following President Donald Trump’s latest barrage on trade, enacting tariffs upon $11 billion EU goods. Such action may dial down the economic growth momentum in the long-run, which in return may reduce the amount of crude oil being demanded. Likewise, oil prices received further pressure after Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the current oil price is well suited towards Moscow, reducing market expectation for an extension of oil-production cuts by May this year. Otherwise, gold price ticked up 0.02% to $1,304.34 a troy ounce following higher risk aversion in the financial market.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:45                     EUR                                        ECB Monetary Policy Statement

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Press Conference

02:00 (11^th)          USD                                        FOMC Meeting Minutes

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support near 96.50. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.50, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level near 1.3100. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1.3015.

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the support level near 1.1270. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of support near 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1270, 1.1300

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1210

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 111.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target at 111.00.

Resistance level: 111.45, 111.75

Support level: 111.00, 110.50

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the target of 0.7130.

Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7090

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6795 in mid-term.

Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6745, 0.6700

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 1.3300. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, toward the direction of 1.3340.

Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3370

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the support level of 0.9995. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after a successful closure below the target of 0.9995.

Resistance level: 1.0040, 1.0070

Support level: 0.9995, 0.9945

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 63.70. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to advance further up after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 64.65, 66.00

Support level: 63.70, 62.80

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical corrections.

Resistance level: 1311.40, 1321.00

Support level: 1302.50, 1295.65

9 April 2019                         Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar under pressure by commodities-backed currencies.

Dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currency pairs was down by 0.05% to 96.55 before European trading session amid investors shift in portfolio. The dollar has extended its gains last week supported by upbeat jobs data. However, as investors digested the news, market sentiment remained cautious while the crude oil market became the main attraction in the FX market. Moreover, dollar received further pressure from a slowdown in wage increase although with strong jobs data. A slowdown in the Average Hourly Earnings by 1 basis-point will affect the inflation level in the US as lower income will lead to lower spending activities in the long-run, providing the Fed more affirmation to pause any interest rate hike this year. In other news, the Canadian dollar which is a major crude oil-backed currency was surged in value, causing the pair of USD/CAD to fall by 0.03% to 1.3305 after oil bulls celebrated another daily gain as expectations of oil supply tightening grew. Besides that, loonie received further support from last Friday’s job data when their Employment Change data was recorded higher at -7.2K vs -10.0K. Investors will be more focused on crucial crude oil sentiment to further gauge the movement of loonie for this week.

As for commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.16% to $64.50 per barrel after surging more than 2% and hitting a 5-months high yesterday. Crude oil price continues to be supported by growing geopolitical tensions in Libya which may affects its oil production and also continues effort of OPEC+ glut cut. Overall sentiment in the oil market remained positive while investors await further signals from US-Sino trade war which may affect global demand for the commodity. Likewise, gold price increased by 0.14% to $1299.00 a troy ounce following weaker dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 96.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level 96.50.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.65

Support level: 96.50, 96.15

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3045. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3185.

Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3045, 1.2960

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1275. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.1245.

Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1215

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 111.30. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10

Support level: 111.30, 110.95

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7130. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7155.

Resistance level: 0.7155, 0.7190

Support level: 0.7130, 0.7070

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6725. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6770.

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6815

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6680

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.3365. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3295.

Resistance level: 1.3365, 1.3460

Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.0000. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.9965.

Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9965, 0.9910

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 64.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 64.00.

Resistance level: 65.90, 67.85

Support level: 64.00, 62.75

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1300.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1293.55.

Resistance level: 1300.10, 1310.70

Support level: 1293.55, 1287.00

9 April 2019                         Morning Session Analysis

Greenback fell as data disappoints.

US dollar fell against other major currencies on Monday following a slight decline in US factory orders which has spark some concerns within the market upon economic growth momentum. The dollar index was quoted down 0.34% to 96.60 as of writing. According to US Commerce Department, US Factory Goods Orders for the month of February shrank within expectation with the reading of -0.5%. The decline in factory orders has raised some concerns over US economic growth momentum which is the main topic for the region as of recent. However, losses on the greenback remains limited due to its positive appeal when being compared to pound sterling and euro which are currently facing higher risks ahead such as Brexit and deteriorating economic conditions respectively. On the other hand, pound sterling was traded flat around 1.3060 during Asian trading session. Traders continues to scrutinize further developments of Brexit as UK Prime Minister Theresa May continued her talks with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn in a bid to break the Brexit impasse. In addition, May is expected to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday in order to secure an extension to Brexit deadline which is being set on 12^th April.

As for commodities market, crude oil price extended gains by 0.05% to $64.30 per barrel this morning. Oil prices rally more than 2% on yesterday following geopolitical tension which arises in Libya, one of the oils producing countries and member of OPEC. Such tension could halt their oil production which may reduces global oil supply and prop up its prices for short-term. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.08% to $1,298.55 a troy ounce following a slump in greenback.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support at 96.50. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate rebound signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40

Support level: 96.50, 95.95

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 1.3015. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).

Resistance level: 1.3100, 1.3155

Support level: 1.3015, 1.2965

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior closure above 1.1245. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1300.

Resistance level: 1.1300, 1.1360

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1185

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing at the support of 111.45. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below of 111.45.

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.45, 111.00

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support near 0.7115. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.7130.

Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7150

Support level: 0.7115, 0.7090

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up following a successful breakout from the top.

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6700, 0.6650

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 1.3300. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.3300.

Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3370

Support level: 1.3300, 1.3270

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term after closing above 0.9995.

Resistance level: 0.9995, 1.0040

Support level: 0.9945, 0.9900

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended gains following prior closure above 63.70. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 66.00 in mid-term.

Resistance level: 66.00, 69.50

Support level: 63.70, 61.60

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance near 1302.50. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1302.50, 1311.40

Support level: 1295.65, 1284.15