280319 Morning Session Analysis
28 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Pound Sterling ‘hit’ heavily as Brexit deadlock remained.
The Pound tumbled against other major currencies after hitting one week high level amid Brexit still deadlocked following all the 8 alternatives plan that proposed by UK Lawmakers failed to get through the approval stage. Sterling market has been dented by the negative sentiment after the lawmakers voted down on every alternatives plan, but also disagreed with Theresa May draft idea. Prior to the votes, Theresa May ‘threw a bomb’ to the UK House of Common by saying that she would resigned if her Brexit deal was get to delivered by end of this week. On the other side, latest announcement from DUP also ‘stabbed’ on Sterling Pound as DUP has confirmed that they will not back Theresa May’s Brexit deal despite the Prime Minister even promise to step down if MP’s backed it, according to BBC news. DUP has also mentioned that as of now, the party does not see any progress in solving backstop issue by UK Lawmakers, and they will only back UK withdrawal draft once the Ireland backstop issue been unfolded. During the early Asian trading session, GBP/USD quoted down 0.07% to 1.3180 while Dollar index inched up by 0.17% to 96.35.
In the commodities market, crude oil price down 0.37% to $58.95 per barrel amid yesterday EIA crude oil inventories data which showed a huge amount of buildup in US inventories level continue to haunt the crude oil market. The data came in at 2.800M, missing economists’ expectation of -1.100M and exceeding previous reading of -9.589M. However, losses on crude oil price limited by some upward pressure as there is a strong support from efforts by OPEC and non-affiliated allies to trim output. Besides, gold price rose 0.03% to $1309.85 a troy ounce amid deadlock in UK has pushed up the demand on this specific safe haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
04:00 (29th) NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.6% | 2.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 221K | 220K | – |
| 21:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.6% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 4.6% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 96.20. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest dollar to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the support level.
Resistance level: 96.70, 97.05
Support level: 96.20, 95.70
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3180. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3415
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.1260. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound back to the resistance level 1.1260.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1290
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1175
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 110.35. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.45
Support level: 110.35, 109.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7070. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.7115.
Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7150
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7025
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6775. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound towards the resistance level 0.6820.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6775, 0.6730
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3400. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3455.
Resistance level: 1.3455, 1.3500
Support level: 1.3400, 1.3360
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded in a sideway-channel while currently testing near the top-level of the channel near 0.9950. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace towards the bottom-level of the channel at 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 59.35. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 58.40.
Resistance level: 59.35, 60.20
Support level: 58.40, 57.50
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the bottom-level of the upward channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to rebound towards the top-level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1305.50, 1294.50
270319 Afternoon Session Analysis
27 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar shines as its peer withers.
Greenback rebounds sharply from its prior low level following broad weakness experienced by other major currencies such as pound sterling and euro. In terms of UK, pound sterling received some bearish momentum as UK lawmakers backed a move to let the parliament take control over Brexit process from UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Such decision has increased political risk within the parliament while deepening the Brexit crisis into next level. UK lawmakers will put forward a range of options over the path of Brexit later today in which a majority win will likely to break the current impasse. However, any option that wins a majority is not legally binding and there is no guarantee that EU will back any of the amendments. Likewise, if the parliament fails to back PM Theresa May withdrawal deal by 12th April, UK might leave the EU without any deal. In terms of EU, euro received broad weakness as market participants fled from the single market following renewed dovish stance from European Central Bank. Prior, ECB adopted the idea of “patient for longer” stance with regards to monetary policy while dialing down EU economic growth significantly for the year 2019. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.18% to 96.34; GBP/USD was down 0.18% to 1.3184; EUR/USD depreciates by 0.08% to 1.1255.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price dipped by 0.03% to $59.77 per barrel. Oil prices edged lower during early Asian session after American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected rise in US crude inventories. However, investors would wait for further signal from Energy Information Administration that may confirm API’s data. On the other hand, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,316.28 a troy ounce as it fails to make any substantial gains due to stronger greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Jan) | -59.80B | -57.00B | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -9.589M | -1.200M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 96.25. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.80
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.15
Support level: 96.25, 95.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 1.3180. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3095
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1270. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1215.
Resistance level: 1.1270, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 110.35. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards back the support level 110.35.
Resistance level: 111.10, 111.75
Support level: 110.35, 109.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7130. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7085.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6815. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6770.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6725
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent retracement from its high level. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher following its major trend towards the resistance level 1.3460.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.9965. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it break above the resistance level 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 60.20. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 63.10
Support level: 57.90, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently retest the resistance level 1315.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1315.80, 1323.10
Support level: 1308.10, 1299.15
270319 Morning Session Analysis
27 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback regained its strength despite downbeat data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against six major peer currencies strengthen even as US housing data and CB Consumer Confidence fell out of economist expectations where both data came in at despair rate. According to the Conference Board, US CB Consumer Confidence of March fell from 131.4 to 124.1 whereas missing the economist forecast of 132.0. It obviously indicating that consumer confidence toward the US economy outlook has been dented. At the same time, poor Building Permits data is also a crucial indicator supported that US consumer demanding on houses has been declined due to wobbles in economy. However, a strong rebound of US treasury yield has moderated the investor sentiments toward the Greenback market and urged Dollar index inched up 0.07% to 96.25 during Asian early trading session. On the other hand, the pair of NZD/USD tumbled 1.30% to 0.6815 following RBNZ interest decision which remain unchanged at 1.75%. Meanwhile, RBNZ also emphasized that their next move on official cash rates will be more likely to be dovish due to weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending.
In the commodities market, crude oil price quoted down 0.30% to $59.70 per barrel amid API reported a buildup in crude oil inventory 1.93 million barrels for the week ending March 22 while missing economists’ forecast of 1.1 million barrels. Besides, gold price rose 0.13% to $1317.50 a troy ounce amid worries on global recessions continue to haunt the riskier assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Jan) | -59.80B | -57.00B | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -9.589M | -1.200M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 96.20. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains towards the resistance level 96.70.
Resistance level: 96.70, 97.05
Support level: 96.20, 95.70
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3180. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3415
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1260. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1290, 1.1340
Support level: 1.1260, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from top levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.45
Support level: 110.35, 109.75
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.7125. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully bearing below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7210
Support level: 0.7125, 0.7080
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6820. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6900
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6765
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3400. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3360.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3455
Support level: 1.3360, 1.3325
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded in a sideway-channel following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (green). MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the top-level of the channel near the resistance level 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from top levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 59.50.
Resistance level: 60.55, 61.90
Support level: 59.50, 58.40
GOLD, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1323.00.
Resistance level: 1323.00, 1331.70
Support level: 1315.00, 1305.50
260319 Afternoon Session Analysis
26 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback flattens, recession risks brews.
Greenback was tangled within a tight range while market participants continues to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach. Most traders continue to scrutinize further developments in the United States with regards to economic performance and trade negotiation in order to gain further signal on US dollar’s near-term direction. Prior, US Federal Reserve have stunned the financial market by threatening to halt any further interest rate hikes if the US economy head towards a possible recession. In addition, the narrowing of yield spread between 2-years and 10-years Treasury has sparked further recession fears as long-term yields diminishes and hovers lower than short-term yields. On the other hand, New Zealand dollar received higher demand in the FX market as market participant digests bullish economic data from the region. For the month of February, New Zealand recorded a lower than expected deficit with only -$6,620 million versus forecast of -$6,675 million. However, gains on the kiwi currency were limited by growing uncertainty in US-China trade talks which is bound to kickstart in Beijing later this week. As of writing, the dollar index ticked down 0.05% to 95.96 while pair of NZD/USD rose 0.10% to 0.6914.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $58.95 per barrel. Oil prices rebounds from its lower level following ongoing supply cut from OPEC while US sanction against Iran and Venezuela helps to curb global oil production levels. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.10% to $1,320.64 a troy ounce following a shift in market demand towards riskier assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Feb) | 1.317M | 1.320M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 131.4 | 132.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 96.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.65.
Resistance level: 96.25, 96.80
Support level: 95.65, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 1.3180. Due to lack of momentum and clear signal from MACD, a breakout above the resistance level 1.3250 or below the support level 1.3180 is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3095
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1295. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1360, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following recent rebound from low levels. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 111.10
Support level: 109.60, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7130. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.7130.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent breakout above the resistance level 0.6905. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6905, 0.6875
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing near the support level 0.9915. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following recent rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 63.10
Support level: 57.90, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1323.10. MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1315.80.
Resistance level: 1323.10, 1331.95
Support level: 1315.80, 1308.10
260319 Morning Session Analysis
26 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained pressured by signs of recession.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies was under pressured by growing concerns of an economic recession. Recent inversion of US treasury yield curves spiraled fears onto the market that the economy cycle is slowly phasing into recession, with further confirmation from the slowdown in its economy as stated in the previous FOMC statement. However, poorer sentiment from riskier market such as Brexit uncertainties kept a strong appeal for the dollar while supporting its fall. Recent Brexit developments advanced to the extension of Article 50 until 22nd May only if the UK Parliament approves Prime Minister Theresa May withdrawal agreement later today. Otherwise, a rejection in today’s vote will force UK to decide by 12th April whether to leave the EU without a deal or participate in the next European elections to obtain a longer delay of Article 50. However, the pound held its grounds on Monday after British lawmakers voted to take over control of the Brexit process from May for a day, but remained pressured as market worries that no significant changes can be made towards the Brexit process. Investors will now focus on today’s third-time Brexit vote to further gauge the market movements. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.08% to 95.95 while pair of GBP/USD edged lower by 0.02% to 1.3195.
For the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.32% to $59.25 per barrel amid continuous effort in OPEC’s production cut and also US sanctions on both Venezuelan and Iranian oil. In addition to that, recent oil inventory level further supported the oil price as reports from both API and EIA recorded declining inventories level. However, fear of economic slowdown had recently limited the gains of crude oil while investors await further signal from US-Sino trade war which may affect global oil demand. Likewise, gold price retraced by 0.07% to $1320.75 per troy ounce after hitting one-month high amid Brexit uncertainties and fear of economic recession in the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Feb) | 1.317M | 1.320M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 131.4 | 132.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 95.70.
Resistance level: 96.20, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3220. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3130.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1320. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1225
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 109.70 MACD which display bullish signals suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.85
Support level: 109.70, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7120. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 0.6895. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6895, 0.6870
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3390. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully close the candle below support level at 1.3390.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3540
Support level: 1.3390, 1.3345
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9930. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9895.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9965
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.05. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.25
Support level: 59.05, 58.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1323.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1323.00.
Resistance level: 1323.00, 1331.35
Support level: 1315.00, 1308.15
250319 Afternoon Session Analysis
25 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback flattens as market hold back.
Greenback was traded flat while market participants continues to scrutinize further developments in the United States with regards to trade war and economic data releases. During Asian trading session, the dollar index ticked down 0.01% to 96.07. Traders adopt a “wait-and-see” approach as they remained cautious following dovish comments delivered by the US Federal Reserve last week. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he suggested that the central bank may held off from raising interest rates further as growth outlook in the US and rest of the world turned towards bearish. In terms of trade war, top Chinese official announced on Sunday that they will work to boost up their imports and achieve a more balance of trade with the United States, a few days before latest round of talks kickstart in Beijing (March 28th). However, a separate report stated that China will not concede to US demands to ease curbs on technologies companies, providing mixed signals to the market with regards to US-China trade talk. Against other major currencies, pair of GBP/USD was down by 0.08% to 1.3198 while EUR/USD slipped 0.13% to 1.1298.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.72% to $58.27 per barrel. Oil prices extended its losses on Monday following brewing market concern over global economic slowdown which may reduce the demand for crude oil in the near term. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.16% to $1,315.56 a troy ounce following higher risk in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
14:30 JPY BoJ Board Member Harada Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 98.5 | 98.7 | – |
| 05:45 (26th) | NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Feb) | -914M | -200M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 96.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.65.
Resistance level: 96.25, 96.80
Support level: 95.65, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3180. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement after it breaks below the support level 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3095
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 1.1295. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher after it successfully breaks above the resistance level 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1295, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1260, 1.1215
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 110.35. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 111.10
Support level: 109.60, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent breakout below the previous support level 0.7085. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.7085.
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6875. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6905, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6875, 0.6815
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 1.3350. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo a short-term technical correction towards the support level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9915. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 57.90. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 63.10
Support level: 57.90, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1315.80. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1315.80, 1323.10
Support level: 1308.10, 1299.15
250319 Morning Session Analysis
25 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar steady amid upbeat housing data, Yen stronger.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies was traded steadily following prior release of higher than expected Existing Home Sales data on Friday with a reading of 5.51M compared to 5.10M. After declining for two-consecutive months, the rebound in home sales exerted positive sentiment for the dollar after being pressured by dovish FOMC statement. Last week FOMC statement included the abandonment of Fed’s plan for rate hike this year as well as the narrowing amount of its maturing securities to roll off each month from $4.5 trillion to $4 trillion. Greenback gains was also limited by poor manufacturing and services data, which heightened investors’ worries towards a slowdown in the US economy. Furthermore, the inverted government bond yields which signals a recession worsen the sentiment for the dollar, causing investors to seek shelter from safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen and gold. As of writing, dollar index was up by 0.02% to 96.10 while pair of USD/JPY was down by 0.13% to 109.75.
For the commodities market, crude oil price further its losses by 0.83% to $58.42 per barrel despite upbeat US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data which reported a reduction of 9 oil rig last week. Although oil prices remained supported by persistent OPEC’s glut cut and sanctions towards Venezuela and Iranian oil, the growing concerns on economic slowdown in the US had spiraled fears on possible decline in oil demand. Investors will now focus on US-Sino trade war results which will strongly affect the sentiment for oil market. Likewise, gold price was up by 0.10% to $1314.35 per troy ounce following fears on economic slowdown.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
14:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Harada Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 98.5 | 98.7 | – |
| 05:45 (26th) | NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Feb) | -914M | -200M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 95.70.
Resistance level: 96.20, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 1.3215. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3130.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1295. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 1.1195.
Resistance level: 1.1295, 1.1405
Support level: 1.1195, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.70. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 109.70.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.85
Support level: 109.70, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.7095. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7050.
Resistance level: 0.7095, 0.7120
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher within the sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6865. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout below the support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6895, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6840
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.3390. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3460.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3540
Support level: 1.3390, 1.3345
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9930. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9930, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.05. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level at 58.25.
Resistance level: 59.05, 59.70
Support level: 58.25, 56.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1315.00.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1308.15, 1300.25
220319-Afternoon Session Analysis
22 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
With deadline extended, what’s next for Brexit?
Greenback depreciates slightly during mid-Asian trading session while pound sterling rose over the backdrop of Brexit developments in the UK. According to Reuters, UK Prime Minister Theresa May welcomed the European Union’s decision to delay Brexit, stating that lawmakers in the British parliament now had clear choices on what to be done next. Britain may leave the European Union without a deal on April 12 if lawmakers reject May’s Brexit deal next week. In addition, EU gave the British leader an extra two months, until May 22 if she wins the next week’s vote in the Parliament. However, losses experienced by the US dollar were limited as investors digests bullish economic data from yesterday. Both Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in with flying colors, diminishing some fears in the financial market over possible economic slowdown in the United States. As for today, investors will place their attention upon housing market data from the US to gain further signal with regards to greenback’s near-term direction. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.20% to 95.75 while pair of GBP/USD tacks up 0.23% to 1.3137.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat near $59.83 per barrel. Oil prices hovers near 2019 highs amid OPEC supply cuts while its gains were limited by bearish outlook over global economic progression. On the other hand, gold price appreciates by 0.02% to $1,309.09 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 47.6 | 48.0 | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Fed) | 0.3% | – | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Feb) | -1.2% | 2.2% | |
| 01.00 (23th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 833 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 95.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 95.70.
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3130. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3220.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the 50 moving average (blue). MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the next resistance level after successfully breakout above the 50 moving average line.
Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1425
Support level: 1.1355, 1.1315
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.85. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term toward the resistance level at 110.85.
Resistance level: 110.85, 111.10
Support level: 110.60, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.7120. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrate bias bullish signal and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6840
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement toward the support level at 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3405, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3345, 1.3290
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9930. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9870, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 59.70. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 60.25.
Resistance level: 60.25, 61.25
Support level: 59.70, 59.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1310.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest gold to extend its losses toward the support level at 1300.25.
Resistance level: 1310.35, 1315.00
Support level: 1300.25, 1292.05
220319 Morning Session Analysis
22 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar rose amid upbeat manufacturing data.
Dollar index have rebound against a basket of six major rival pairs following the recent release of manufacturing data on Thursday. According to reports released by Philadelphia Fed, manufacturing index have rose to 13.7 in March which exceed the markets expectation with the prior reading of -4.1. Besides that, initial jobless claims also improved to 221K from 225K which provide further support for the recovery. As the positive data help the greenback pare losses from recent surprising FED, market investors currently remain focused on the trade developments between US and China which could shift the market momentum. Dollar index was edge higher 0.03% to 95.85 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBPUSD recovers 0.11% to 1.3120 from its low at the time of writing after following latest headline data. The Bank of England left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% and lifted its first-quarter GDP forecast to 0.3%, above a previous estimates of 0.2% while the update on monetary policy from the central bank was overshadowed by fast developments on the Brexit. Despite that, sterling have regains some support following retails sales beat economist’s estimate with the reading of 0.4% against forecasted reading of -0.4%. However, the pound sterling remains pressured by Brexit developments as market remains concentrate on ongoing Brexit headlines to determine the further direction of the pound sterling.
For the commodities market, crude oil price continues to extend its rally and rose 0.23% to $59.73 at the time of writing following reports on diminishing Iran oil exports. According to tanker data and industry sources, Iran’s oil exports have dropped in March to their lowest daily level this year even before Washington formally requires importing countries to reduce purchases to avoid infringing U.S. sanctions. The drop in Iranian exports added on with OPEC-led supply cut have sent the black commodity to record highs throughout week and the bullish momentum is expected to continue for a period of time. On the other hand, gold price have fell 0.14% to 1307.59 as of writing as the safe-haven metal retreats amid dollar recovery.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 47.6 | 48.0 | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Fed) | 0.3% | – | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Feb) | -1.2% | 2.2% | |
| 01.00 (23th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 833 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.40, 96.70
Support level: 955.80, 95.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom-level of the upward channel. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1340. However, MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 1.1340.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1290
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.40.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.45
Support level: 110.40, 109.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.7125. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7080.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7080, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrate bias bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6805
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3360. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3455
Support level: 1.3360, 1.3325
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9905. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 59.55. However, MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 59.55.
Resistance level: 60.55, 61.90
Support level: 59.55, 58.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1305.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest gold to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1305.50, 1294.50
210319 Afternoon Session Analysis
21 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Rate hike abandoned, recession incoming?
Greenback nursed its heavy losses during mid-Asian session after US Federal Reserve stunned the market by abandoning all plans to raise interest rates over the backdrop of increasing recessive risks. On yesterday, investors rushed to pull the bearish trigger upon greenback, pushing US Treasury yields to its lowest level since early 2018. As for now, the spread between yields of 2-years and 10-years Treasuries narrowed down to its lowest level in three months, renewing market concerns for a possible inversion of yield curve. A curve inversion may indicate imminent recession ahead as long-term yields inches closer to short-term yields. On the other hand, New Zealand dollar extended its gains following a large sell-off that occur on the greenback. Similarly, the currency received further support after GDP reading for Q4 came in within expectation at 0.6%, easing fears for an economic downturn in the region. As of writing, the dollar index mends its losses by 0.13% to 95.30 while pairing of NZD/USD advanced up by 0.54% to 0.6919.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.32% to $59.89 per barrel. Oil futures remained supported after US government data showed further tightening in domestic oil inventories. However, gains in the commodity price were limited after US President Donald Trump warned that tariffs on Chinese goods may stay for a “substantial amount of time” in order to ensure China complies with trade agreement. On the other hand, gold price tacks up 0.47% to $1,318.67 a troy ounce following lower expectation for a rate hike in the United States.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16.30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
16.30 CHF SNB Press Conference
17.00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 1.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 20.00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 226K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | -4.1 | 4.6 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 95.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 95.10.
Resistance level: 95.45, 96.70
Support level: 95.10, 94.65
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3220. However, MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term towards the resistance level at 1.3130.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.1425. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term if it unsuccessfully breakout the support level.
Resistance level: 1.1465, 1.1500
Support level: 1.1425, 1.1395
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 110.60. MACD which display bearish signals suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 110.25.
Resistance level: 110.25, 109.25
Support level: 110.60, 111.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7145. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7190
Support level: 0.7120, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 0.6935. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level at 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6875
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3290. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout at the support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3235
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9895. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9960
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.70. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 61.25.
Resistance level: 61.25, 63.10
Support level: 59.70, 57.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1310.35. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1322.20.
Resistance level: 1322.20, 1344.70
Support level: 1310.35, 1298.90
210319 Morning Session Analysis
21 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar dives following Fed rate reversal.
Dollar index plummets against a basket of six major currency pairs after Federal Reserve have left its rate unchanged and abolish the prospect of rate hike. In its recent statement, the Fed have surprised the market by abandoning all its plan to raise rates this year while at the same time benchmark Treasury yields dived to their lowest since early 2018. Besides that, the Fed also narrowed the amount of its maturing securities to roll off each month to $4 trillion from $4.5 trillion. The dovish shift which already highly expected by investors sending the greenback price for the biggest drop since the flash crash of early 2018 as market reacted swiftly and sway away from the greenback. At the time of writing, dollar extend its losses by 0.10% to 95.28. Meanwhile, AUD/USD skyrocketed 0.65% to 0.7161 as of writing following Australia jobless rate display improvement. According to the official data release, Australia’s unemployment rate have fell to a fresh seven-year low of 4.9%, exceeding market expectation with the previous reading of 5.0%. Besides that, part time employment also climbed to 11.9K from the previous reading of -24.3k, which signaling further a growing improvement in the jobs market.
For the commodities market, crude oil price extend its gains by 0.10% to $60.10, sending the price to a four-month high above $60 a barrel as positive news continue to encouraging the demand for the crude oil. In recent data, U.S Energy Information Administration have posted a large unexpected drop in crude oil inventories where stockpiles have fell 9.6 million barrels last week against economist expectations of an increase of 309,000 barrels. The drop was the largest since July 2018 and brought stockpiles to their lowest since January, boosting further the sentiment of the already positive black commodity. On the other hand, gold price also skyrocketed by 0.25% to 1315.84 at the time of writing following the unexpected decision from FED have spiked the demand of safe-haven asset as markets were swaying away from the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16.30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
16.30 CHF SNB Press Conference
17.00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 1.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 20.00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 226K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | -4.1 | 4.6 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 95.25. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest index to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 95.80, 96.40
Support level: 95.25, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3280. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3270.
Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1440. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1400, 1.1340
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 110.95. MACD which display bearish signals suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 110.40.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.45
Support level: 110.40, 109.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7170. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7210
Support level: 0.7125, 0.7080
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level at 0.6900. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6940.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.6985
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3280. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9905. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.55. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 60.55.
Resistance level: 60.55, 61.90
Support level: 59.55, 58.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1305.50, 1294.50
200319-Afternoon Session Analysis
20 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar revives as US-China trade talk fumbled.
Greenback extended its recovery against other major currencies as market participants poured into the dollar market following renewed tension in US-China trade talk. However, any substantial gains on the greenback remains limited as Federal Reserve is expected to deliver their monetary policy statement later tonight. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.10% to 95.87 against six major peers. According to people that are familiar with the current US-China trade talks, the American counterpart is concerned that China might push back against American demands even so President Donald Trump sounded optimistic in reaching a deal. Chinse officials stated that while they agreed to some changes with regards to intellectual property policies, they have yet received any assurance from Trump administration that tariffs upon China goods will be lifted. Likewise, Beijing has also stepped back from initial promises over data protection of pharmaceuticals while offering little detail on plans to improve patent linkages. As such, investors will be remained fixated upon US-China trade talk as Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin which is expected to travel to China next week for another round of trade talks. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD tumbled down 0.20% to 0.7073. Australian dollar received higher selling pressure after China Securities Journal reported that People’s Bank of China may cut the amount of cash that banks have to hold in order to counter weak economic growth in the region.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.27% to $58.84 per barrel. Oil prices took a hit after US-China trade talks fumbles which may evoke further recessive risks in economic progression if left unresolved. On the other hand, gold prices fell 0.13% to $1,304.83 a troy ounce as US dollar recovers from its prior low levels.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (21st) USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:00 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.8% | 1.8% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.862M | 0.309M | – |
| 02:00 (21th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
| 05:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.3% | 0.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level at 95.70. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 96.10.
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower in the sideway channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3145
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1335.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1335, 1.1315
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 111.40. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.00.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35
Support level: 111.40, 111.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6840. MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend losses towards the support level 0.6805.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6900
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6805
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3235
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level at 0.9985. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to continue its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.0020.
Resistance level: 1.0020, 1.0045
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9960
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.70. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.65.
Resistance level: 59.70, 61.25
Support level: 57.65, 55.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1310.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1298.90.
Resistance level: 1310.35, 1321.10
Support level: 1298.90, 1292.05
200319 Morning Session Analysis
20 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar under pressure ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies recovered by 0.08% to 95.88 while remained pressured as investors expect a slight dovish signal from FOMC Meeting Minutes later today. Recent statement from Fed included their patience approach towards the interest rate following poor economic conditions shown by US data last week. As interest rate are expected to be kept unchanged, investors await further confirmation regarding Fed’s dot plot which signaled two rate hikes for year 2019. However, with a slowdown in the economy, economists expect the rate hikes on the dot plot to be only once this year while market wait for Fed’s economic prospect for clearer signal. In other news, pair of EUR/USD fell by 0.04% to 1.1345 as of writing despite a higher than expected reading in German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Recent economic outlook for the Eurozone remained dovish while EU lawmakers are struggling with Brexit issues. Investors will now place their focus on today release of German PPI data to further gauge the market sentiment for euro.
For the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.34% to $59.05 per barrel amid concerns of recent trade talks development. Recent reports stated that Beijing might walk away from talks due to lack of trust towards the US regarding the lifting of tariffs imposed on their goods. Investors fear that the impasse in trade talks will affect the demand for crude oil in the long run. Likewise, gold price decreased by 0.17% to $1304.10 per troy ounce following stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (21st) USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:00 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.8% | 1.8% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.862M | 0.309M | – |
| 02:00 (21th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
| 05:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.3% | 0.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 95.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 96.25
Resistance level: 96.25, 96.80
Support level: 95.65, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 1.3250. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3180
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 111.10. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.75.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.10, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7085. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7050
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remains traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6875. However, MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6815, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3295. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction back above the previous level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0025
Support level: 0.9965, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.50.
Resistance level: 59.35, 61.25
Support level: 57.50, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1308.10. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1299.15.
Resistance level: 1308.10, 1315.80
Support level: 1299.15, 1289.35
190319-Afternoon Session Analysis
19 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback pinned down by dovish bets.
Greenback remains under pressure during mid-Asian trading following higher expectation towards US Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish outlook over-the-backdrop of recessive economic data from the region. The dollar index slumped 0.10% to 95.83 as of writing. In general, most investors expect the Fed to held off from raising interest rates further while pledging a “wait-and-see” approach with regards to monetary policy. Prior, US inflationary pressure seems to lose some traction while activities in several key sectors from the region have seen some easing. Such progression would force the Fed to reassess their policy forward guidance, particularly with regards to dot-plot (Fed’s interest rate outlook). Moving forward, market participants will place their focus upon this week’s Fed policy meeting where some speculates the central bank to reveal their plan to end balance sheet tapering and make adjustment on prior dot-plot projection. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD rose 0.06% to 0.7107, unfazed by dovish meeting minutes from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to the meeting minutes, RBA took note of “significant uncertainties” in the market, especially with respect to domestic demand. However, the central bank reiterated that the case for near-term policy adjustment is still low at this point of time.
As for commodities market, crude oil price extended its gains by 0.15% to $59.34 per barrel. Oil futures remains well in bid after Kazakhstan announced to shut production at its giant Kashagan oil field next month in compliance with OPEC-led supply cut. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.39% to $1,307.43 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) | 3.4% | 3.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | 14.2K | 13.1K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | -13.4 | -11.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 04:30 (20th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.580M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 95.80.
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.40
Support level: 95.80, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3220. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3295.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3145
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher folliwing prior rebound from the support level at 1.1335. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1355.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1335, 1.1315
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the upward channel bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.40, 112.00
Support level: 111.10, 110.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6840. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6900
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6805
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3320.
Resistance level: 1.3355, 1.3410
Support level: 1.3320, 1.3290
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0025. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 0.9990.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 59.45. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level before entering the market.
Resistance level: 59.45, 61.25
Support level: 57.65, 55.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold was traded higher following prior breakout above the downward trend line. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1310.35.
Resistance level: 1310.35, 1321.10
Support level: 1298.90, 1292.05
190319 Morning Session Analysis
19 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar flat ahead of FOMC meeting minutes, pound under pressure.
Greenback measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded flat after opening Monday’s market with a large gap down. Recent downbeat economic data in the US in terms of inflationary level and manufacturing worsen the sentiment for dollar market as investors worry this week’s meeting minutes might carry a dovish note. Besides that, recent statement from the Fed on future rate cuts are highly possible with recent data supporting their concerns on weakening economy. However, dollar was able to hold its ground following Brexit headlines as UK Speaker John Berkow ruled against Prime Minister Theresa May’s motion on a third vote towards her Brexit deal. Berkow stated that another vote can only made possible if there’s changes made towards the original deal, adding pressure onto May as she seeks approval from EU lawmakers for the extension of Brexit beyond 29th March. The pound market went under pressure as investors worry that a rejection from EU might lead to hard-Brexit which would send UK into a sharp recession. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.03% to 95.90 while pair of GBP/USD increased by 0.10% to 1.3265.
For the commodities market, crude oil price further its gains by 0.10% to $59.30 per barrel after hitting a new high in 4-months following recent upbeat inventory data and OPEC’s effort in its glut cut which had since brought significant impact onto its prices. Oil prices are expected to inch higher in the future as global supply decreases amid sanctions on Venezuela and Iran oil. Likewise, gold price extended increases by 0.10% to $1304.85 per troy ounce following dollar fall.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) | 3.4% | 3.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | 14.2K | 13.1K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.0% | 4.0% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | -13.4 | -11.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 04:30 (20th) | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -2.580M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat following recent breakout below the previous support level 96.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction towards back the previous level 96.05.
Resistance level: 96.05, 96.40
Support level: 95.60, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3250. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3180
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 111.75.MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 111.10.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.10, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7090 in short term.
Resistance level: 0.7130, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7085, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6815. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6875.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6815, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3315. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3375.
Resistance level: 1.3375, 1.3440
Support level: 1.3315, 1.3260
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat following recent rebound from the support level 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower following its trend towards the support level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0055
Support level: 1.0000, 0.9965
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 59.35. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 59.35, 61.25
Support level: 57.50, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1305.65. MACD which illustrating bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1305.65.
Resistance level: 1305.65, 1315.05
Support level: 1299.15, 1289.35