260517 Daily Analysis
26 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Oil down 7% as larger cuts missing in action.
Pound sterling extended its back leg on Friday following prior lackluster economic growth data that has spur widespread pessimism over Britain’s ability to overcome Brexit headwinds. Pairing of GBP/USD shed 0.25% to one-week low of $1.2910. According to the Office for National Statistics, Britain’s first quarter reading of gross domestic product was revised down to 0.2%, missing its prior estimate of 0.3%. The reading was at its weakest level since the first quarter of 2016. Investors will now look ahead to UK’s general election on June 8th while main political parties are set to resume campaigning later today. In the American region, US dollar extended its recovery during early Asian trading hours and was last seen at 97.15 against six major peers. Overnight, the greenback received renewed buying momentum following hawkish initial jobless claims data that has lifted overall expectation for an economic rebound in the second quarter.
As for commodities, crude oil price slumped 7.02% to $48.40, leading to the largest daily percentage slide in crude prices since early March. While OPEC’s move on Thursday has been largely expected to extend their production cut, some oil market investors has higher hope that they would implement deeper cuts in order to substantially reduce global glut of crude supplies. Analyst postulate that the recent rally in its price has left few buyers to lend some support, hence accelerating its nosedive. In the gold market, price of the yellow metal eased 0.09% to $1,254.65 following a rebound in US dollar due to better-than-expected jobless claims.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.7% | 0.9% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) | 97.7 | 97.5 | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 720 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD slumped sharply after breaching the support level of 1.2935 while currently testing to breakout from the bottom level of upward channel. A successful closure at this level would signal a change in trend direction for GBPUSD to move further downwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2935, 1.2980
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2965
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within a descending triangle following prior retrace from the top level. Recent closure below the support level of 1.1195 suggests EURUSD to move further downwards, towards the target of support level of 1.1170 in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.1195, 1.1220
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1150
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 112.00 while currently testing at the 20-moving average line (red). A closure below the line would suggest USDJPY to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 111.25.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.90
Support level: 111.25, 110.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound while currently testing near the support level of 48.85. MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of downward momentum suggest crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend its downward momentum.
Resistance level: 50.00, 52.00
Support level: 48.85, 47.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing at the support level of 1253.80. A successful rebound from this level would suggest gold price to advance further up towards the upper level of the triangle in short-term. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1263.00, 1271.00
Support level: 1253.80, 1246.00
250517 Daily Analysis
25 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar taken aback by cautious Feds.
US dollar remained defensive on Thursday following less hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes that has spook off dollar-bulls. In the discussion concerning future rate hike, most Feds suggested a further increase in short-term rates sooner should the economy remain on track with their expectations. However, such hawkish view was dialed down by comments from some members whom highlighted to held off raising interest rates too soon until further evidence suggests that the recent economic slowdown is only temporary. Likewise, the dollar index was down 0.25% to 96.88 against its major peers this morning. As for other region, euro regained some upward momentum while hovering near six-months high as market attention place the limelight on European Central Bank (ECB). The single common currency was up 0.05% to $1.1225 against the greenback during Asian trading hours. Euro enjoyed a bull run since early of the month following diminished French political risks and recent upbeat economic performance in Eurozone which has increased overall speculation for ECB to dial back their Quantitative Easing program.
Otherwise, crude oil price was up 0.82% to $51.78 per barrel following deeper than expected draw on US crude inventories. According to Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories for the week ended May 19th fell by 4.43 million barrels, as compared to expectation of only 2.4 million. Likewise, gold price rebounds by 0.42% to $1,257.71 as Fed meeting minutes gave dovish signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CHF Switzerland – Ascension Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative Crude Oil OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 232K | 238K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the top level of the channel. As both moving average line changes its direction and head upwards, it suggests a higher chance of breaking the top level of the channel and move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2950
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD snapped out from its losses and rebounded from the support level of 1.1160 while closing above the 20-moving average line (red). As the downward signal from MACD histogram continues to narrow upwards, EURUSD is suggested to advance further up and retest near the resistance level of 1.1260.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1070
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within an upward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. However, as Stochastic Oscillator still illustrate a rebound signal from the oversold region, a closure above the resistance level of 111.75 would suggest USDJPY to advance further up towards the upper level of the channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.45, 111.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the key resistance level at 51.80 and top level of the channel. Referring to both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards, it suggests a higher chance of breaking the top level of the channel and move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 51.80, 53.75
Support level: 49.10, 47.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within an ascending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level of the triangle. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests gold price to advance further up in short-term, towards the resistance level of 1263.00. Long-term trend direction can only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1263.00, 1271.00
Support level: 1253.80, 1246.00
240517 Daily Analysis
24 Mei 2017 Daily Analysis
Speculative dollar awaits meeting minutes.
Greenback was offered higher on Wednesday, having rebounded from prior six-months low as US Treasury yield received some support while investors will now place their focus on Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The dollar index was last quoted at 97.19 against six major peers. “The rise in Treasury yields lend some support for the dollar, which appears to be speculative buying as Trump-Russia saga and geopolitical risks are no longer fresh concerns for investors,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist. Immediate market focus lies on the meeting minutes by US Federal Reserve while dollar bulls are expected to welcome any hawkish hints by the central bank. Elsewhere, Great British Pound was traded flat at $1.2967 against the greenback as financial market awaits further developments in Britain’s suspended election campaign following prior suicide bombing in Manchester on Tuesday.
As for commodities, crude oil price seesawed around $51.52 per barrel following the release of industry estimates on US stockpiles. According to American Petroleum Institute, crude inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels albeit less than expected reading of 2.419 million barrels, thus capping any further upward momentum. Otherwise, gold price eases 0.15% to $1,252.86 as greenback regains its footing during Asian trading hours.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
20:45 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
02:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Apr) | 5.71M | 5.65M | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -1.753M | -2.419M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel while recently closing below the support level of 1.2975. Recent closure suggests GBPUSD to advance further down, towards the lower level of the channel after breaking the support level of 1.2935.
Resistance level: 1.2975, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2935, 1.2900
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A successful breakout would signal a change in trend direction for EURUSD to move further downwards thereafter. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest EURUSD to be traded higher in short-term within the upward channel.
Resistance level: 1.1210, 1.1260
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1115
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA line continues to expand upwards after golden cross formation, a closure above the resistance level of 112.00 would suggest USDJPY to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.55
Support level: 111.55, 111.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its uptrend following prior rebound from the 20-moving average line (red). As both moving average line continues to expand upwards, crude oil price is expected to extend its upward momentum after breaking the key Fibonacci level of 78.6 at 51.60.
Resistance level: 51.60, 52.65
Support level: 49.90, 48.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price has recently retraced from the resistance level of 1263.60, completing a double top formation with the neckline at 1245.80. As both moving average line begins to form a death cross, a closure below the support level of 1250.60 would suggest gold price to advance further down towards the neckline thereafter.
Resistance level: 1257.55, 1263.60
Support level: 1250.60, 1245.80
230517 Daily Analysis
23 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Merkel: “Euro is too weak!”
Euro hovered near six-months high against the US counterpart on Tuesday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the currency was “too” weak. Pair of EUR/USD held steady around $1.1241 as of writing. Merkel stated that the common currency is weak due to European Central Bank’s monetary policy, pointing out that it has helped to explain Germany’s relatively high trade surplus. The chancellor’s comment provides fresh momentum to the Euro which has been on a bullish train since French presidential election earlier this month. “While recent diminished French political risk and speculation of ECB policy shift have helped the common currency, the biggest support factor lies on the broader weakness of dollar in wake of Trump-Russia saga,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior strategist at Tokyo. Likewise, the dollar index eased 0.03% to 96.79, drifting near six-months low of 96.65 against other major peers. The greenback receives broad selling pressure following higher uncertainty in the US political climate which may hinder US Federal Reserve’s ability to raise their interest rates this year.
Glancing through the commodities market, crude oil price held firm at $51.10 per barrel on expectation that an OPEC-led production cut would be extended till next March. However, upward momentum remained subdued as analyst commented that economic slowdown may cloud mid-term outlook for crude market. Otherwise, gold price added up 0.12% to $1,262.01 following broader weakness on the US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
17:00 GBP Inflation Report Hearings
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.6% | 0.6% | – |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 58.2 | 58.0 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) | 112.9 | 113.1 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Manufacturing PMI (May) | 56.7 | 56.5 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (May) | 56.8 | 56.6 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – Services PMI (May) | 56.4 | 56.4 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Apr) | 621K | 610K | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 0.882M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. A closure below the strong support level of 1.2980 would suggest GBPUSD to advance further down, towards the lower level of the channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3050, 1.3100
Support level: 1.2980, 1.2925
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its uptrend following prior expansion of both moving average line while heading upwards. Currently, it is testing near prior peak at 1.1260. A successful breakout from this level would suggest EURUSD to extend its upward momentum towards the next target of resistance level at 1.1345.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1070
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a small downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level of the channel. A closure above the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term, towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 111.55, 112.00
Support level: 111.00, 110.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a tight range of 50.70 and 51.30 while currently closed below the 20-moving average line (red). Recent closure suggests crude oil price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the support level of 50.70. Likewise, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the range.
Resistance level: 51.30, 51.80
Support level: 50.70, 50.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price regained its upward momentum following prior rebound from the 20-moving average line (red). With regards to the MACD histogram which begins to illustrate upward signal, a closure above the strong resistance level of 1264.15 would suggest an extension of upward momentum for gold price.
Resistance level: 1264.15, 1277.85
Support level: 1254.50, 1244.85
220517 Daily Analysis
22 May 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: May 22 – 26
Market Review (Forex): May 15 – 19
U.S. Dollar
The greenback resumed its decline last Friday, notching its largest weekly loss in nearly a year as political turbulence around Trump administration continued to dominate overall market sentiment.
The dollar index ended the week with 0.79% lower, hovering near six-months low of 97.00 while giving up its gains made following last year’s US election in November. For the week, the index has shed more than 2.12%, its worst weekly loss since last July. Thus far, the index has fallen more than 5% from its 14-years high of 103.82 on January 3rd as investors lose their faith in “Trump trade” agenda.
US dollar received renewed selling pressure following reports that a senior White House adviser is a person of interest in the investigation over the alleged Russian interference in November’s presidential election. The Justice Department appointed a former FBI director as special counsel to investigate possible collusion between Trump’s campaign team and Russia. Overall sentiment turned grey as political uncertainty may delay Trump’s effort to push through his economic agenda such as tax reform and large fiscal spending.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY was down 0.2% to 111.25, recording its first weekly decline in five-weeks, shedding prior gains by 1.82% for the week.
EUR/USD
The euro rallied to fresh six-months high last Friday, with the EUR/USD adding up 0.95% to 1.1207. The euro continued to be underpinned after investor shifted their attention back to the outlook of monetary policy from European Central Bank as political risk subsided while recent economic data indicated economic recovery in the currency bloc.
GBP/USD
Great British Pound gained against its US counterpart, appreciating 0.73% to $1.3034 while ended the week with total gain of 1.16%.
Market Review (Commodities): May 15 – 19
GOLD
Gold prices inches higher on Friday, registering its largest weekly gain since mid-April as political uncertainty surrounding Trump administration place immense pressure on the dollar, while at the same time boosting the demand for the precious metal. Spot gold price was up 0.21% to $1,255.27 during late Friday trading.
The greenback received broad selling pressure following fresh report that a senior White House adviser is a person of interest in the investigation of Trump-Russia political saga. Investors sentiment were hit over fears that US political system could be engulfed in crisis, preventing lawmakers to push through tax or spending reforms. Likewise, higher uncertainty and risk in the market would prompt higher demand for gold as it is one of the safe-haven asset other than the Japanese yen.
Crude Oil
Crude futures settled at four-weeks high with prices soaring a weekly gain of more than 5% amid higher optimism that key major producers will extend output cuts beyond prior agreed-on June deadline when they meet later this month. Crude oil price rose 2% during last Friday, while ended the week at $50.33 a barrel. It has settled above the level of $50 for the first time in four weeks.
Oil ministers from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers will be meeting in Vienna on May 25th to decide whether to extend their current daily production cut beyond June 30th dateline. Most market analyst expects the oil cartel to extend output cuts for another nine months until March 2018 instead of six months as previously expected.
Otherwise, data from energy services provider Baker Hughes showed that US active drilling rig increased for 18th week in a row. US rig count rose by 8 to 720 in total, its highest level since April 2015.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active oil drilling rig in US was increased by 8 last week to a total of 720 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: May 22 – 26
For the week ahead, investors will be looking forward for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes to scavenge fresh signals regarding the timing of next US interest rate hike. Revised data on US first quarter growth and private sector survey data from the Euro zone will also be in focus.
As for oil traders, market participants will be focusing on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries highly-anticipated meeting on Thursday to see any major plans to extend their current production-cut deal. Likewise, fresh weekly information from US regarding stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday will also be in the limelight.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: May 22 – 26
| Monday, May 22 |
Data N/A
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, May 23 |
Data EUR – German GDP (QoQ ) (Q1) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index (May) EUR – Manufacturing PMI (May) EUR – Markit Composite PMI (May) EUR – Services PMI (May) USD – New Home Sales (Apr) Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events GBP – Inflation Report Hearings
|
| Wednesday, May 24 |
Data USD – Existing Home Sales (Apr) CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes
|
| Thursday, May 25 |
Data GBP – Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1) GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1)
Events Crude Oil – OPEC Meeting
|
|
Friday, May 26
|
Data USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: May 22 – 26
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index has slipped out from the bottom level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate downward signal suggests the dollar index to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 96.90.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.90
Support level: 96.90, 95.85
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing near the support level of 1.2985. MACD indicator which continues to drift outside of upward momentum suggests GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests GBPUSD to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 1.3130, 1.3270
Support level: 1.2985, 1.2855
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 110.60 while currently testing near the 60-moving average line (green). A closure above the line would suggest USDJPY to extend its upward momentum towards the target of resistance level at 112.15.
Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40
Support level: 110.60, 108.10
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. With regards to MACD histogram which portrays significant upward signal and momentum, a closure above the resistance level of 1.1260 would suggest EURUSD to move further upwards.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1365
Support level: 1.1145, 1.0975
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a narrow triangle while currently testing near the top level of the triangle. A retracement from this level would suggest gold price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target of support level at 1240.70. Otherwise, a breakout would signal gold price to experience a change in trend direction to move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 1263.15, 1295.80
Support level: 1240.70, 1216.60
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior closure above both moving average line and 61.8 level of Fibonacci retracement. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum, it is suggested to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 52.80.
Resistance level: 52.80, 55.20
Support level: 50.85, 49.50
190517 Daily Analysis
19 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback salvaged thanks to upbeat data.
Safe haven Japanese Yen gained during Asian trading hours on Friday as investors race to safe guard their capital following recent political turmoil in Brazil. Pairing of USD/JPY was down 0.26% while exchanging hands at 111.21. Stocks in Brazil slumped 8.8% on yesterday after emerging scandal involving the country’s recently inaugurated President Michel Temer where he was allegedly giving his permission to pay a potential witness to kept silent in the country’s biggest graft probe. In the other region, greenback was offered higher against its major peers following overnight’s better than expected US economic data that has offset recent political turmoil surrounding President Donald Trump. The dollar managed to snap out from its five-days losing streak as Initial Jobless Claims and manufacturing data provides more optimistic outlook. Although the stronger data has shifted investor’s attention away from prior political saga in Washington, market’s expectation for an interest hike in June took a toll, down to 63% as compared to last week with nearly 80% peak. Likewise, the dollar index eased 0.09% to 97.64 as of writing.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 15 cents to $49.50 amid growing optimism upon major key producers in extending output cut deal for the second half of the year in order to reduce global supply glut. On the other hand, gold price eased 0.14% to $1,249.89 following dollar’s rebound in tandem with optimistic economic data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 712 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. A closure below the support level of 1.2925 would suggest GBPUSD to move further down and test near the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2925, 1.2865
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high of 1.1170. As the MACD histogram begins to illustrate downward signal and momentum, it is expected to advance further down and retest near the support level of 1.1080.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1080, 1.1020
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 110.50 while currently testing to break the support level of 111.25. A successful breakthrough from the level of 111.25 would suggest USDJPY to move further downwards and retest near the support level of 110.50.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.90
Support level: 111.25, 110.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level of the channel. It is suggested to move further upwards, towards the top level of the channel after breaking the resistance level of 49.90.
Resistance level: 49.90, 51.60
Support level: 48.75, 47.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 61.8 Fibonacci level of 1264.35. However, as both moving average line continues to expand upward after the formation of golden cross, a rebound from the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest gold price to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1254.75.
Resistance level: 1254.75, 1264.35
Support level: 1245.15, 1233.30
180517 Daily Analysis
18 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Special counsel to probe Trump-Russia, dollar crashes.
Another day of observed loss for the greenback as it hovers near six-months low against other major peers after US political crisis deepens and may likely to delay any efforts of President Donald Trump to implement his economic stimulus pledges. The US Justice Department has appointed former FBI director as special counsel to investigate possible collusion between Trump’s 2016 campaign team and Russia. The appointment of a special counsel was made after Trump abruptly dismissed former FBI director James Comey wo was previously investigating Russia’s role in US election. Media then reported that Trump may have interfered with federal investigation, a serious offence that could lead to his impeachment if verified. “Political instability has shaken up market’s perception towards the United States. Anyone would likely to halt their investment into the country if such headlines were smeared across all newspapers,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo Branch Manager of State Street Bank. The index had tumbled more than 5.8% thus far, despite widespread speculation that it would remained supported by higher prospect for an interest rate hike. Likewise, the dollar index last stood around 97.24, shedding an additional 0.70% during Asian trading hours. Against other major currencies, euro touches six-months high of $1.1174 while USD/JPY fell 0.50% to 110.88.
Peering into commodities market, crude oil dipped 0.35% to $48.90 as investors turned cautious over political risks in the United States. Meanwhile, overnight’s bullish report from the Energy Information Administration provides some support after crude oil inventories fell by 1.75 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.33% to $1,261.70 as its demand increases due to higher perceived political risk in the United States.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
01:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 09:30 | AUD – Employment Change (Apr) | 60.9K | 5.0K | 37.4K |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -1.8% | 1.0% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 236K | 240K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) | 22.0 | 19.5 | – |
DOLLAR_INDX
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index has extended its downtrend following prior downward expansion of both MA lines after the formation of death cross. As the MACD histogram illustrate signification downward momentum, a closure below the support level of 97.05 would suggest an extension of its losses.
Resistance level: 97.55, 98.00
Support level: 97.05, 96.65
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing near the top level of the channel. A breakout would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, retracement from this level would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower within the sideways channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2840, 1.2770
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its upward momentum after the formation of golden cross by both moving average line. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum, it is suggested to move further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1.1260.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1340
Support level: 1.1130, 1.0980
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has extended its losses following prior formation of death cross by both MA lines. However, recent rebound from support level of 110.50 suggests USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term as brief retracement. Likewise, long-term trend direction still suggests USDJPY to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 111.25, 112.00
Support level: 110.50, 109.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound will suggest crude oil price to be traded within an upward channel trend thereafter.
Resistance level: 49.90, 51.60
Support level: 48.75, 47.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior breakthrough of 50.0 Fibonacci level at 1254.75. With regards to MACD histogram that shows substantial upward signal, a closure above the resistance level of 1264.35 would suggest an extension of uptrend.
Resistance level: 1264.35, 1278.00
Support level: 1254.75, 1245.15
170517 Daily Analysis
17 Mei 2017 Daily Analysis
Euro at sky high, dollar embattled with scandals.
US dollar extended its losses on Wednesday following an aftermath of chaotic US political situation which weighs on the expectation for economic policies favouring tax cuts and higher fiscal spending. Investor’s prospect was jeopardized following yesterday’s report of US President Donald Trump sharing sensitive information with Russia’s diplomat. Such report came after FBI Director James Comey was abruptly dismissed by Trump, which has underlined more doubts over his ability to successfully push through economic stimulus program. In addition, overnight’s lackluster housing market data has further weigh on the dollar, fueling concerns regarding the timing of the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve. As such, the dollar index was down 0.72% and last quoted at 98.10. In the European region, the single common currency rose 0.86% to $1.1068 earlier today. The demand for Euro surged after investor’s shift their attention back to European Central Bank and their outlook for monetary policy as EU economic conditions began to recover.
Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price took a sharp turn, tumbling 1.03% to $48.15 after industry estimates showed a surprise build in US crude inventories. According to American Petroleum Institute, US inventory level rose 882,000 barrels, missing expectation for a decline of 2.3 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price extended its rally for the fourth day, up 0.52% to $1,241.40 as investors adopt risk aversion following jittery US politics.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 06:45 | NZD – PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) | 1.0% | – | 0.8% |
| 09:30 | AUD – Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) | 2.3% | 2.4% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Apr) | 25.5K | 7.5K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 1.9% | 1.9% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -5.247M | -2.360M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing near the upper level of the triangle. A retracement from this level would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in the short-term. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.2955, 1.2985
Support level: 1.2910, 1.2890
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of upward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum, it is expected to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1.1145.
Resistance level: 1.1145, 1.1250
Support level: 1.0975, 1.0850
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior closure below the Fibonacci level of 23.6 at 112.90. As MACD histogram portrays downward signal while both MA lines continue to narrow downwards, USD/JPY is expected to extend its downward momentum towards the target of support level at 112.00
Resistance level: 112.90, 114.35
Support level: 112.00, 111.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior closure below the 20-moving average line (red). MACD histogram which begins to show downward signal suggests crude oil price to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 47.55.
Resistance level: 48.75, 49.90
Support level: 47.55, 46.10
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price has extended its gains after breaking the strong resistance level of 1233.30. MACD histogram indicator which shows upward signal while both MA lines has formed a golden cross suggests gold price to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level of 1245.15.
Resistance level: 1245.15, 1254.75
Support level: 1233.30, 1214.15
160517 Daily Analysis
16 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Widened downside for greenback as Trump-Russia intensifies.
Greenback extended its back leg in Asia on Tuesday as the market churns the latest controversy that surrounds Trump administration after an explosive story in Washington Post suggested that Trump previously provided Russian diplomats wit top secret details regarding Middle Eastern intelligence sources. The dollar index which measured its strength against six major peers eased 0.05% to 98.67. Likewise, it has received further downward pressure following overnight’s release of weaker-than-expected manufacturing data for the region of New York. According to the Federal Reserve of New York, Empire State manufacturing index fell to contractionary region with -1 for May, down from 5.2 in April. The softer reading dented investor’s expectation for a rate hike with the Fed Rate Monitor Tool showing a 72.4% chance for the month of June, down from prior reading of nearly 80%. Against other major currencies, the dollar depreciates against its Japanese counterpart with USD/JPY down 0.10% to 113.67 while GBP/USD rose 0.17% to $1.2917.
As for the commodities market, crude oil price held gains after appreciating 0.53% to $49.11 following Saudi Arabia and Russia pledge to extend the production cut deal till March of next year if other key producers follow through. On the other hand, gold price extended its gains by 0.33% to $1,232.68 following dollar’s weakness due to weak US manufacturing data from yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Tentative Crude Oil IEA Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 2.3% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) | 19.5 | 22.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.5% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Apr) | 1.260M | 1.270M | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Housing Starts (Apr) | 1.215M | 1.260M | – |
| 21:15 | USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -5.780M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while recently retraced from the 60-moving average line (green). A closure below the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term, towards the target of support level at 1.2840. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2985, 1.3060
Support level: 1.2845, 1.2770
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD extended its gains following prior closure above both moving average line after a rebound from 1.0860. MACD histogram which continues to illustrate upward signal suggests EURUSD to advance further up, towards the resistance level of 1.1020.
Resistance level: 1.1020, 1.1075
Support level: 1.0930, 1.0860
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY continues to trade within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. A closure below the support level of 113.35 would suggest USDJPY to advance further down, towards the lower level of the channel.
Resistance level: 113.60, 113.90
Support level: 113.35, 113.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 48.70. However, as the MACD indicator continues to drift outside of upward momentum, crude oil price may be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend its uptrend.
Resistance level: 49.20, 49.65
Support level: 48.70, 48.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound an closure above the 60-moving average line (green). A successful closure above the resistance level of 1233.30 would suggest gold price to extend its upward momentum thereafter.
Resistance level: 1233.30, 1245.15
Support level: 1215.15, 1202.00
150517 Weekly Analysis
15 May 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: May 15 – 19
Market Review (Forex): May 8 – 12
U.S. Dollar
Greenback fell against a basket of major peers on Friday following lackluster US data on inflation and retail sales which disappoints investors expectation for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Data on Friday shows that US retail sales grew less than expected with only 0.4% for April, a short of economist expectation for an increase of 0.6%. At the same time, annual rate of inflation slowed down to 2.2% in April, as compared to 2.4% in March. Otherwise, annual core inflation which excludes food and energy costs fell to 1.9%, its lowest level since October 2015.
A weaker than expected economic data would raise doubts over whether the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates by two more times as current readings shows some slowdown in US economy.
Similarly, Fed Rate Monitor Tool currently shows that the market is pricing in around 70.6% chance for a rate hike in the month of June following the release of the data.
US Retail Sales
—– Forecast
US Retail Sales reads at 0.4%, lower than expected increase of 0.6% for the month of April.
US Inflation Rate
—–Forecast
US Inflation rate came in at 2.2% for April, lower than prior month with 2.4%.
US Core Inflation Rate
—–Forecast
Core inflation which excludes food and energy came in only at 1.9% for the month of April.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Market participants are currently pricing at 70.6% chance of a rate hike in June.
USD/JPY
Safe haven yen regains its momentum, with the pair of USD/JPY tumbling 0.43% to 113.37, retreats from two-months high of 114.36.
EUR/USD
Euro rose to daily high against the dollar, with EUR/USD up 0.64% to $1.0931.
GBP/USD
Sterling was little changed on Friday, with GBP/USD last seen at 1.2888 as of late Friday trade.
Market Review (Commodities): May 8 – 12
GOLD
Gold prices was a tad higher last Friday, ending the week with little change as weaker dollar increases the appeal for the precious metal. Price of the yellow metal settled up 0.17% to $1,228.23 during late North American trading hours. Greenback took a step back from its appreciation following weaker-than-expected inflation and retail sales reading, which is seen as a setback on the possibility for more interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that the market is pricing at 70.6% chance for a rate hike in June, slightly lower when compared to the rate before the data was released. Gold price is highly sensitive to rising rates, which could lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Crude Oil
Oil futures settled flat on Friday but in tandem to register first weekly gain within a month as the likelihood of major oil producers to extend output cuts beyond an agreed June deadline increases as they meet later this month. Price of the black commodity ticked up 1 cent while ended the week at $47.84, nearing previous high of $48.22.
In the recent days, some officials from major producers has signaled the possibility for deeper production cuts to be made in order to clear a supply glut. At the start of the year, OPEC and other producers such as Russia began their production cut by about 1.8 million barrels per day but thus far had little impact on global inventory levels. Uprising in US shale production has derailed their efforts in rebalancing global crude prices as they ramp up active drilling rigs and daily production levels.
Last Friday, energy services company Baker Hughes showed that US drillers has added rigs for 17th week in a row, implying further gains in domestic production ahead. Number of active US rigs increased by 9 to 712, extending its 11-month drilling recovery to its highest levels since August 2015.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active oil drilling rig in US was increased by 9 last week to a total of 712 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: May 15 – 19
For the week ahead, investors will be looking forward for US reports on building permits, housing starts, industrial production and jobless claims for fresh indication on the strength of their economy. Japan is due to report their first quarter growth while UK is bound to produce closely watched inflation, employment and retail sales reading amid signs of headwinds from looming Brexit.
As for oil traders, market participants will continue to eye on fresh weekly information regarding US stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand from world’s largest oil consumer. Likewise, they will also keep a look out on International Energy Agency which is bound to release their monthly report for further signal on global crude market.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: May 15 – 19
| Monday, May 15 |
Data NZD – Core Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) NZD – Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) CNY – Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Apr) CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) CHF – PPI (MoM) (Apr) USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, May 16 |
Data GBP – CPI (YoY) (Apr) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) EUR – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USD – Building Permits (Apr) USD – Housing Starts (Apr) USD – Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes Crude Oil – IEA Monthly Report
|
| Wednesday, May 17 |
Data NZD – PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) AUD – Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Mar) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Apr) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Apr) CAD – Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, May 18 |
Data JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) AUD – Employment Change (Apr) GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
|
Friday, May 19
|
Data CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: May 15 – 19
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 99.80. Recent closure below the 20-moving average line (red) suggests dollar index to advance lower, towards the target of support level at 98.85.
Resistance level: 99.80, 100.75
Support level: 98.85, 97.55
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the strong resistance level of 1.3000 while closing below the 20-moving average line (red). MACD histogram which illustrates downward signal and momentum suggests GBPUSD to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 1.2855.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3130
Support level: 1.2855, 1.2715
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USD/JPY has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA line continues to expand upwards after the formation of golden cross, a closure above the resistance level of 113.40 would suggest USD/JPY to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 113.40, 114.60
Support level: 112.15, 110.60
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel while recently rebounded near the strong support level of 1.0820. As the Stochastic Oscillator illustrates a rebound signal from the oversold region, EURUSD is expected to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1.1020.
Resistance level: 1.1020, 1.1120
Support level: 1.0920, 1.0820
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound while traded thinly near the resistance level of 1229.35. As the downward signal from MACD histogram continues to narrow upwards, gold price may be traded higher in the short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests gold to extend its downward momentum as both MA lines continue to narrow downwards and may form a death cross formation.
Resistance level: 1229.35, 1254.60
Support level: 1208.95, 1188.60
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior rebound from the support level of 45.35. With regards to the MACD histogram which illustrates upward signal and momentum, it is suggested to advance further up, towards the target of resistance level at 49.10.
Resistance level: 49.10, 51.45
Support level: 47.25, 45.35
120517 Daily Analysis
12 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Sterling bludgeoned by Brexit headwinds.
US dollar hovered below eight-weeks high against the Japanese yen on Friday while near-term sentiment relies on forthcoming US economic data which could provide further indication regarding next rate hike timing. The dollar index was held unchanged at 99.46 while pair of USD/JPY eased 0.03% to 113.84. Overnight, greenback fell 0.4% against the yen, recording its first daily decline in five days as investors continue to consolidate their gains. Likewise, ongoing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s abrupt dismissal of FBI Director James Comey places further pressure on the dollar. Nonetheless, the dollar managed to add 0.9% for the week, supported by higher prospect for an interest hike as soon as June. In the other region, Great British Pound stabilizes at around $1.2884 following overnight’s slump which touches one-week low of $1.2849. Broad selling was initiated after Bank of England’s inflation report shows that UK interest rate are unlikely to change within the next two years while subject to current market circumstances. The bank warned that living standards may fall this year, reducing the forecast for average earnings growth nationwide as uncertainty from Brexit arises. Likewise, they signaled that interest rates may need to be raised at a faster pace if inflation pressure surpasses targeted range.
Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price was up 0.13% to $47.89 while investors ponder upon US active rig count data bound to be released past midnight. Meanwhile, members and non-members of OPEC will be holding a meeting in Vienna on May 25th where they are widely expected to extend oil output cut deal in order to reduce global supply glut. Spot gold price inched up 0.18% to $1,224.85, buoyed by looming political risk in the United States.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.6% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.0% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.6% | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 703 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was thinly traded near the resistance level of 1.2900 following prior rebound from 1.2840. However, as both MA line continues to narrow downwards and may form an imminent death cross, GBPUSD is expected to move further down, towards the target of support level at 1.2840.
Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.2985
Support level: 1.2840, 1.2750
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior inability to close below the strong support level of 1.0850. As the MACD indicator continues to hover outside of downward momentum, EURUSD is suggested to extend its retracement period and to be traded higher in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.0915, 1.1020
Support level: 1.0850, 1.0795
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term within the sideways channel.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35, 114.70
Support level: 113.60, 113.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 48.20. However, as both MA line continues to narrow upwards and may form a golden cross signal, a closure above the resistance level of 48.20 would suggest an extension of upward momentum.
Resistance level: 48.20, 49.30
Support level: 47.20, 46.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound while closing above the 20-moving average line (red). As MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal, it is expected to move further upwards, towards the target of resistance level of 1233.30.
Resistance level: 1233.30, 1245.15
Support level: 1214.15, 1202.00
110517 Daily Analysis
11 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Kiwi nosedive while RBNZ liberates dovish feathers.
New Zealand dollar plunged sharply on Thursday after central bank maintain their interest rates at a record low of 1.75% while signaling a rather neutral stance on their monetary policy. Pairing of NZD/USD fell 1.64%, touching eleven-months low of $0.6815 this morning. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBZ) delivered a rather surprising dovish stance, highlighting numerous uncertainties regarding trade protectionism while long-term inflationary pressure remains lukewarm. “Statement released by the RBNZ gave clear signal that their monetary policy is set to remain on hold for a considerable amount of time and it has no interest in pre-empting policy tightening anytime soon,” said financial analyst from ANZ Bank. Otherwise, the greenback was held steady at 99.47 while investors awaits for latest US inflation and retail sales reading that will be released tomorrow. Overnight, US dollar managed to defend its prior gains following a series of hawkish comments from several Fed officials which has lifted overall prospect for an interest rate hike in June.
Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price rose in Asia while last seen at $47.42 per barrel following an upbeat report on US crude inventories. According to Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories for the week ended May 3rd was fell by 5.25 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a draw of 1.79 million barrels. Subsequently, gold price was up 024% to $1,220.24 as geopolitical risk surrounding North Korea returns.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
05:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
06:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
09:10 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
19:00 GBP BoE Inflation Report
19:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Tentative Crude Oil OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 05:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) | -0.1% | -0.2% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.2% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest GBPUSD to be traded higher within the channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 1.1020. A closure below the strong support level of 1.0860 will suggest EURUSD to advance further down, towards the lower level of the upward channel.
Resistance level: 1.0945, 1.1020
Support level: 1.0860, 1.0760
NZDUSD
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD has recently broke out from the bottom of upward trend line, suggesting a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As the downward signal line from MACD histogram continues to expand downwards, a closure below the support level of 0.6815 would suggest NZDUSD to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 0.6835, 0.6860
Support level: 0.6185, 0.6790
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the recent high at 114.35. As the MACD indicator begins to hover outside of upward momentum, USDJPY is expected to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests USDJPY to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 114.35, 114.70
Support level: 114.00, 113.60
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior rebound from the support level of 46.10 while closing above the 60-moving average line (green). As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward momentum, a successful closure above the resistance level of 47.55 would suggest crude oil price to move further upwards.
Resistance level: 47.55, 48.75
Support level: 46.10, 43.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1224.65. However, as the MACD indicator continues to drift outside of downward momentum, gold price may extend its technical retracement and to be traded higher in short-term. Long-term trend direction still suggests gold price to move further downwards as both MA line continues to expand downwards.
Resistance level: 1224.65, 1236.45
Support level: 1214.10, 1202.30
100517 Daily Analysis
10 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback slips following Comey’s dismissal.
US dollar sagged during Asian trading hours on Wednesday while perceived safe-haven yen soared after US President Donald Trump abruptly fired FBI Director James Comey in a move that shocked Washington and financial market alike. Comey had been leading his agency’s investigation over alleged Russian meddling in 2016 US presidential campaign and possible collusion with Trump’s campaign. Any US political turmoil will weigh on the dollar as currently divided Congress could derail Trump’s effort to implement tax reform and fiscal stimulus. The dollar index slipped 0.25% to 99.25 while pairing of USD/JPY was down 0.07% to 113.92. Otherwise, euro was up 0.20% to $1.0896, snapping out from prior decline as of writing. President of European Central Bank Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver his speech at Dutch House of Representatives later tonight while investors observe if he would alter his dovish tone in light of recent economic rebound within the euro zone.
As for the commodities, crude oil price gained 0.76% to $46.23 a barrel following sharper draw in US crude inventories. According to the American Petroleum Institute, crude inventories fell more than expected with 5.79 million barrels, easing investors worry over ongoing rebound in US shale production. Similarly, gold price added up 0.57% to $1,221.23 following Trump’s abrupt decision to dismiss FBI Director James Comey which sparked risk aversion among investors.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 09:30 | CNY – PPI (YoY) (Apr) | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% |
| 20:30 | USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) | -0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -0.930M | -1.786M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level of the channel. A successful closure above the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest GBPUSD to advance towards the target of resistance level at 1.3000.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently rebounded following prior breakout from the bottom level of upward channel. Such rebound suggests EURUSD to be traded higher in short-term as retracement period. Long-term trend direction suggests EURUSD to be traded lower as both MA line continues to narrow downwards.
Resistance level: 1.0950, 1.1000
Support level: 1.0880, 1.0815
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the recent high of 114.30. Referring to the MACD histogram which illustrates downward signal and momentum, USDJPY is expected to be traded lower towards the target of support level at 113.60.
Resistance level: 114.00, 114.30
Support level: 113.60, 113.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a small downward channel while currently testing near the top level of the channel. A retracement from this level would suggest crude oil price to be traded lower, towards the target of support level at 45.70.
Resistance level: 46.35, 47.00
Support level: 45.70, 44.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1224.65. However, as the MACD indicator remained hovered outside of downward momentum, gold price is expected to be traded higher in short-term as technical corrections. Long-term trend direction still suggests gold price to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 1224.65, 1236.45
Support level: 1214.10, 1206.15
090517 Daily Analysis
9 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar, Euro losses its steam, focus on ECB and Fed.
Euro retreats from prior six-months high on Tuesday although remained well-supported as worries over political populism continues to subside while signs of improving economic conditions in EU as further catalyzed investors’ confidence. Pairing of EUR/USD eased 0.02% and was last seen at $1.0922. “Euro retreat was solely driven by profit-taking. I think it is going to regain some momentum over time,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency analyst. With the French election being done with, investors will pay attention to how and when the European Central Bank will dial back its quantitative easing given the recent rebound in euro zone economy. In the other region, US dollar regained some footing while investors look ahead towards upcoming US economic data to gauge the timing of next interest rate hike. The dollar index appreciates by 0.07% to 98.98 as of writing. However, analyst postulate that the dollar may struggle to extend its rally further as the next rate hike is deemed to be fully priced in.
Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price was up 0.45% to $46.64 per barrel while investors look ahead towards near-term weekly industry estimates of US oil and refined product stockpiles for further market indication. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.13% to $1,226.95 albeit remained under pressure as prospect for an US interest hike as soon as June gains its traction.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.1% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) | -2.5% | 5.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) | 5.743M | 5.670M | – |
| 04:35 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -4.158M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD were traded lower following prior retracement before the resistance level of 1.3000. A rebound from the 20-moving average line (red) would suggests GBPUSD to advance further upwards and retest near the resistance level of 1.3000.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3075
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. A closure below the 60-moving average line (green) would suggest EURUSD to advance further down, towards the bottom level of the upward channel.
Resistance level: 1.0950, 1.1000
Support level: 1.0880, 1.0815
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level of the channel. It is expected to advance further upwards, towards the target of resistance level at 113.75.
Resistance level: 113.75, 114.40
Support level: 113.00, 112.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level of 46.10 while closing above the 20-moving average line (red). With regards to the MACD histogram which continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum, crude oil price may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend its losses.
Resistance level: 47.55, 48.70
Support level: 46.10, 43.75
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within the sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level will signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards thereafter. Otherwise, a rebound from this level would suggest gold price to be traded higher in short-term within the sideways channel.
Resistance level: 1231.40, 1235.00, 1239.30
Support level: 1226.00, 1221.80
080517 Weekly Analysis
8 May 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: May 8 – 12
Market Review (Forex): May 1 – 5
U.S. Dollar
Greenback loses its footing against other major peers following the release of US Nonfarm Payroll report while investors look ahead towards the second round of presidential election in France. The dollar index was down 0.19% to 98.53 after initially touching an almost six-months low of 98.41. For the week, the index has shed 0.37%, its fourth consecutive weekly decline.
According to the Labor Department, US economy has added 211,000 jobs last month, beating expectations for a gain of 185,000 while unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, nearing the lowest level in 10 years. The report also showed that prior month’s figure of 98,000 was revised down to an even lower of 79,000, causing disappointment among investors.
The jobs report did little to alter the view of Federal Reserve in raising their interest rate in June. Markets are pricing around 74.1% for a chance of rate hike in June as per Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
—– Forecast
The US economy has added 211,000 jobs during April, exceeding expectations of 185,000.
US Unemployment Rate
—–Forecast
US Unemployment rate was down 0.1% and currently stands at 4.4%.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool
Fed Rate Monitor Tool shows that the market is currently pricing in at 74.1% for a chance of rate hike in June.
USD/JPY
US dollar was higher against the yen, with pairing of USD/JPY up 0.22% to 112.71 last Friday.
EUR/USD
Euro was traded at $1.0998, its strongest level since early November during last Friday as expected victory of Emmanuel Macron would be a sign that political risk in Europe is subsiding.
GBP/USD
Great British Pound rose against its dollar counterpart, up 0.45% to seven-months high of $1.2980.
Market Review (Commodities): May 1 – 5
GOLD
Gold prices retraced its gains on last Friday after data showed a strong rebound in US jobs growth last month which has underlined higher expectations for an interest rate hike in June. Gold for June delivery was settled at $1,229.01, off from earlier high of $1,236.00. Overall, gold price has ended the week with 3.26% lower, its largest weekly decline since last November. Expectation for faster pace in rate hike will place pressure on gold price which is denominated in dollars. It struggles to compete with yield bearing assets when borrowing costs arises. In addition, fading Eurozone political risks also weighed on the safe haven demand, well ahead of Sunday’s second round vote in the French presidential election.
Crude Oil
Oil futures settled higher last Friday while registering a hefty loss for the week as rising signs of a rebound in US shale production continues to feed concerns over global supply glut. Crude oil price was up 1.5% while closing the week at $46.22 a barrel. It has plunged almost 5% on Thursday after hitting its lowest level since November at $43.76.
In the recent week, crude oil price came under pressure amid fears of ongoing rebound in US shale production could derail efforts of other major producer in rebalancing global oil supply and demand. Likewise, US drillers last week added 6 additional rigs, sending its total to a 11-months high of 703 thus far. The relentless increase in US output has overshadowed pledged output cuts that is initiated by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Members and non-members of OPEC will be meeting in Vienna on May 25th to discuss the possibility to extend their production cut deal to second half of the year in order to clear a supply glut which was failed to reduce thus far.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active oil drilling rig in US was increased by 6 last week to a total of 703 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: May 8 – 12
The outcome of French presidential election is likely to set the tone in financial markets this week. Likewise, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s US data on inflation and retail sales to gauge overall performance of their economy if it is sufficient to support the case for an interest hike in June. In addition, monetary policy meeting in the UK and New Zealand will also be in focus.
As for oil traders, they will keep an eye on fresh weekly information on US stockpiles of crude and refined products due Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Otherwise, investors will also keep an eye on the OPEC’s monthly report for further evidence they are complying with their agreement to reduce daily output since early of the year.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: May 8 – 12
| Monday, May 8 |
Data AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr) AUD – NAB Business Confidence (Apr) CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (Apr) GBP – Halifax House Prince Index (MoM) (Apr)
Events N/A
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| Tuesday, May 9 |
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, May 10 |
Data CNY – CPI (YoY) (Mar) CNY – PPI (YoY) (Mar) USD – Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
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| Thursday, May 11 |
Data NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) USD – PPI (MoM) (Apr)
Events NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement NZD – RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks GBP – BoE Inflation Report GBP – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes Crude Oil – OPEC Monthly Report
|
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Friday, May 12
|
Data EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: May 8 – 12
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 99.20. Recent retracement suggests dollar index to be traded lower, towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 99.20, 100.95
Support level: 97.80, 96.40
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD has extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. However, recent retracement and MACD indicator which begins to drift outside of upward momentum suggests GBPUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests GBPUSD to move further upwards.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3130
Support level: 1.2855, 1.2715
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY has recently breakout from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. A closure above the resistance level of 113.40 would suggest USDJPY to extend its upward momentum.
Resistance level: 113.40, 114.60
Support level: 112.15, 110.60
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 1.1020. Recent retracement suggests EURUSD to be traded lower towards the target of support level at 1.0920.
Resistance level: 1.1020, 1.1120
Support level: 1.0920, 1.0820
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has recently slipped out from the bottom of upward trend line, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As the MACD histogram indicator illustrates downward signal and momentum, gold price is suggested to move further downwards after breaking the support level of 1129.35.
Resistance level: 1254.60, 1295.35
Support level: 1229.35, 1208.95
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 45.30. As the downward momentum from MACD histogram begins to subside, crude oil price is expected to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction is suggested to extend its downward momentum.
Resistance level: 47.20, 49.10
Support level: 45.30, 42.65