Daily Analysis

5 May 2017                          Daily Analysis

Greenback quivers as NFP approaches.

Euro held onto its overnight gains during early Friday trading while investors anticipates for tonight’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report which will dictates overall market tone. Pairing of EUR/USD eased 0.09% to $1.0974. The single common currency received higher buying volume after viewer’s poll declared that Emmanuel Macron won a TV presidential debate against Marine Le Pen on yesterday. Such optimism has further increased the likelihood of Macron in reigning his victory at the runoff vote which will be held on Sunday. Otherwise, greenback regained some grounds after sliding off against other major peers during North American trading hours. The US dollar was derailed from its prior rally following a mélange of US economic data performance whereby initial jobless claims fell more than expected while factory orders were rather subdued during March. The dollar index was last quoted at 98.64 as of writing.

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.15% to $45.59 while having limited upside as market participants remains concerned over the ongoing oversupply glut and a rebound in US shale production. Likewise, gold price inched up 0.1% to $1,228.31 while on track for its biggest weekly losses due to receding political risk in France and higher expectation for a US rate hike as early as June.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

All Day                     JPY                                       Japan – Children’s Day

Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                                  Event

09:30                       AUD                                      RBA Monetary Policy Statement

01:30                       USD                                      Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel after retracing from the top level of the channel. A closure below the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest GBPUSD to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1.2895.

Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2930

Support level: 1.2895, 1.2880

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently slipped from the top level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. It is expected to extend its upward momentum after breaking the psychological level at 1.1000.

Resistance level: 1.1000, 1.1050

Support level: 1.0950, 1.0880

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level of 112.30. As the downward signal line from MACD histogram continues to narrow upwards, a closure above the resistance level of 112.65 would suggest USDJPY to extend its upward momentum.

Resistance level: 112.65, 113.05

Support level: 112.30, 111.95

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price has recently slipped out from the bottom level of downward channel, signifying the change in trend direction to move further downwards. As MACD histogram continues to illustrate prominent downward signal and momentum, a closure below the support level of 45.30 would suggest crude oil price to extend its losses.

Resistance level: 46.20, 47.00

Support level: 45.30, 44.35

GOLD

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has recently closed below the upward trend line, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As the downward signal from MACD histogram continues to expand downwards, gold price is expected to advance further down towards the target of support level at 1208.95.

Resistance level: 1229.35, 1254.60

Support level: 1208.95, 1188.60

4 May 2017                          Daily Analysis

Analogous Fed spur optimism for rate hike.

US dollar remained resilient during Asian session on Thursday following Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision while market participants look forward for tomorrow’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. The dollar index was up 0.14% to 99.15 as of writing. Overnight, US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75-1.00%, well within market expectations. The Feds struck a similar tone in its statement, reiterating that interest rates will be increased gradually throughout the year. They noted that while economic activity slowed down in the first quarter and household spending rose modestly, they postulate that the labor market has continued to strengthen as job gains were solid in the recent months. Subsequent to the statement, US dollar rose sharply while gold price slipped to sessions low. Referring to the Fed rate monitor tool, nearly 70% of traders is expecting an interest rate hike in June, as compared to only 60% prior to the interest rate decision.

Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price loses its ground on Thursday after skidding 0.27% to $47.69 as crude oil inventories fell lesser than expectations with 930,000 barrels. Similarly, gold price was down 0.42% to $1,241.18 following dollar’s resilient after the release of Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                     JPY                       Greenery Day

Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                  Event

00:30                       EUR                      ECB President Draghi Speaks

04:25                       CAD                      BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound form the support level of 1.2860. Recent rebound suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests GBPUSD to extend its downward momentum as both MA lines continue to expand downward after the formation of death cross.

Resistance level: 1.2885, 1.2915

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2835

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the upper level of the channel. A closure below the support level of 1.0880 would suggest EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term towards the bottom level of the sideways channel.

Resistance level: 1.0950, 1.1000

Support level: 1.0880, 1.0850, 1.0800

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its upward momentum following prior closure above previous resistance level at 112.20. It is expected to move further upwards after breaking the resistance level of 112.90.

Resistance level: 112.90, 113.55

Support level: 112.20, 111.40

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was thinly traded near the support level of 47.40 following prior downward momentum. As the signal line from MACD begins to narrow upwards, crude oil price may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to move further downwards.

Resistance level: 48.80, 50.25

Support level: 47.40, 46.15

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price has recently broken out from bottom level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal and momentum, a successful closure below the support level of 1235.60 would suggest gold price to extend its losses.

Resistance level: 1250.00, 1261.35

Support level: 1235.60, 1222.70

3 May 2017                          Daily Analysis

All eyes on Feds: will they signal rate hike?

Greenback seesawed during early Asian trading on Wednesday while financial market awaits the Federal Reserve’s policy statement for further hints regarding the outlook of US interest rate hike. The Feds are widely expected to keep their interest rate unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting but investors will be scavenging for further clues whether the central bank would downplay prior softcore economic performance, leaving the doors open for a rate hike in June. The dollar index eased 0.05% and last quoted at 98.72. “Prior concern about geopolitical risk such as North Korea placed some pressure on the greenback. However, recent focus was shifted towards the performance of US economic fundamentals and the upcoming jobs data will be closely watched by investors,” said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global market analyst. In the other region, euro was held steady at $1.0933 as investors look ahead for the second round of French presidential election between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen this weekend.

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 1.05% to $48.16 following a decline in US inventories last week by 4.2 million barrels. Similarly, gold price was up 0.10% to $1,256.34 as investors’ appetite for riskier assets eased slightly ahead of Fed’s interest rate decision later tonight.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                     HKD                      Hong Kong – The Birthday of the Buddha

All Day                     KRW                     South Korea – The Birthday of the Buddha

All Day                     JPY                       Japan – Constitution Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00                       USD                      FOMC Statement

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level of 1.2860. Signal line from MACD histogram which begins to illustrate upward signal suggests GBPUSD to advance further up and retest near the resistance level of 1.2965.

Resistance level: 1.2965, 1.3085

Support level: 1.2860, 1.2770

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. A successful breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace from would suggest EURUSD to be traded lower within the triangle in short-term thereafter.

Resistance level: 1.0935, 1.0950

Support level: 1.0920, 1.0895

USDJPY

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remains traded within a downward channel while recently closed above the 60-moving average line (green). A successful closure above the strong resistance level of 112.15 would suggest USDJPY to test near the top level of the channel thereafter.

Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40

Support level: 110.60, 108.10

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1:  Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 47.70. Indicator from MACD which begins to hover outside of downward momentum suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to extend its losses.

Resistance level: 48.15, 48.50

Support level: 47.80, 47.40

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the support level of 1251.45. Recent rebound suggests gold price to be traded higher in short-term as retracement period. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests gold price to be traded with a downward channel trend.

Resistance level: 1260.85, 1267.40

Support level: 1251.45, 1239.50

2 May 2017                          Daily Analysis

Dollar unfazed as financial market resumes trading.

US dollar was traded flat during early Asian session on Tuesday as the market resumes its trading following yesterday’s Labour Day while investors look ahead to Australia’s central bank board meeting minutes. The dollar index was unchanged at 98.88 against six major peers as of writing. Overnight, the dollar inches higher despite disappointing economic data while bullish remarks from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed to lift greenback further. According to Mnuchin, it may take up to two years for the US economy to achieve 3% growth while highlighted that Trump’s tax reform and regulatory relief plans would be the main catalyst to induce economic growth. Meanwhile, pound sterling was up 0.15% to $1.2905 although remained under pressure as EU leaders may likely to demand UK to pay its liabilities before a new trade deal can be discussed.

As for the commodities market, crude oil price drifted lower in Asia, down 0.10% to $48.79 as investors look forward for latest weekly estimates on crude inventories due tomorrow morning. Otherwise, gold price was up 0.29% to $1,256.99 as investors took the opportunity to buy the asset from a lower price following prior consecutive losses.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                       AUD                      RBA Rate Statement

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD were traded higher following a rebound from the support level of 1.2890. The signal line from MACD histogram begins to form an upward signal suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.2965

Support level: 1.2890, 1.2865

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a trading range while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.0895. It is expected to be traded higher in short-term, towards the target of resistance level at 1.0950. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the range.

Resistance level: 1.0950, 1.1000

Support level: 1.0895, 1.0850, 1.0800

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. A successful closure above the resistance level of 112.20 would suggest USDJPY to extend its upward momentum.

Resistance level: 112.20, 112.90

Support level: 111.40, 110.60

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following previous formation of death cross by both MA lines. As both lines continue to expand downwards, a closure below the support level of 48.65 would suggest crude oil price to extend its downtrend.

Resistance level: 48.95, 49.20

Support level: 48.65, 48.20

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior closure below the strong support level of 1260.85. As the MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal, gold price is expected to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1251.45.

Resistance level: 1260.85, 1267.40

Support level: 1251.45, 1239.50

28 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

Euro dislocated upon dovish Draghi.

Euro took a step back against its US counterpart following dovish remarks from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on yesterday. Pair of EUR/USD depreciated by 0.06% to $1.0867 as of writing. The single common currency loses its ground after Draghi stated that eurozone’s economic recovery is “increasingly solid” albeit inflationary pressure remained “subdued” for the time being. His comments came fresh after European Central Bank revealed their interest rate decision by leaving the benchmark rates unchanged at a record low of 0.00%. Meanwhile, US dollar held on to some gains after rising 0.13% to 98.98 against six major peers. The greenback continued to march higher for second day despite weaker-than-expected economic data from Initial Jobless Claims and Core Durable Goods Orders. At present, market participants will be eyeing on a series of economic data bound to be released by several major economic players such as EU, UK and the US in order to gauge overall market sentiment and direction.

Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price mends prior losses after rebounding 0.53% to $49.23 this morning. In spite of that, oil prices were still on track for a second consecutive weekly losses over concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly reduce an oversupply in the market. Otherwise, gold price was slightly higher, up 0.06% to $1,264.40 while remained under pressure due to diminishing global risk.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD has recently broke out from top level of trading range, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.2915 would suggest an extension of uptrend.

Resistance level: 1.2915, 1.2980

Support level: 1.2855, 1.2770

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a descending triangle while recently rebounded near the support level of 1.0850. The rebound suggests EURUSD to be traded higher in short-term towards the target of resistance level at 1.0890. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a breakout from either side of the triangle.

Resistance level: 1.0890, 1.0920

Support level: 1.0850, 1.0820

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following prior retracement from the resistance level of 111.30. With regards to MACD indicator which hovers outside of upward momentum, USDJPY may be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, upward expansion of both MA lines suggests an extension of uptrend in the long-term.

Resistance level: 111.30, 111.75

Support level: 110.60, 110.15

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from bottom level of the channel. A closure above the resistance level of 49.40 would suggest crude oil price to advance towards the upper level of the channel.

Resistance level: 49.40, 49.80

Support level: 48.95, 48.20

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing near the bottom level of the triangle. A successful breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound from this level would suggest gold price to be traded higher within the triangle in short-term thereafter.

Resistance level: 1267.45, 1274.00

Support level: 1260.85, 1251.45

27 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

Trump whistles tax reform, financial market isn’t impressed.

US dollar clings on to some gains on Thursday after US President Donald Trump’s tax plans offered no new surprises, halting its rally while market participants shift their focus towards European Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The dollar index was little changed at 98.93, slightly lower from overnight session’s high of 99.33. Trump’s tax reform would cut income tax rate paid by public corporations from 35% to 15% and reduce the top tax rate assessed on pass-through businesses which includes small partnership and sole proprietorships from 39.6% to 15%. “Trump’s tax plan did not go beyond what the media has been covering for the week. Although the plan appears ambitious, its foundations are shaky from revenue perspective,” said senior forex strategist, Junichi Ishikawa. In the European market, the single common currency – euro gained 0.1% to $1.0911, not far from 5½ months high of $1.0951. The central bank is due to announce its policy decision later in the day and market participants eyes whether recent French election results would have any influence on ECB’s stance and approach.

As for commodities, crude oil price was down 0.52% to $49.36 due to a swell in US gasoline inventories due to lagging demand. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.26% to $1,266.05 as global uncertainty subsides while coupled with a strong dollar.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                  JPY                      BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                  JPY                      BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

14:30                     JPY                        BoJ Press Conference

20:30                     EUR                       ECB Press Conference

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower within the channel thereafter.

Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2905

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2770, 1.2700

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel after rebounding from the bottom level of the channel. A closure above the resistance level of 1.0920 would suggest EURUSD to advance further up, towards the upper level of the channel.

Resistance level: 1.0920, 1.0965

Support level: 1.0875, 1.0830

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-moving average line (red). As the MACD indicator remains hovered outside of upward momentum, USDJPY is expected to be traded lower in the short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to extend its uptrend.

Resistance level: 111.40, 111.75

Support level: 110.95, 110.45

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a trading range of 49.00 and 50.20. Recent rebound from the bottom level suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in the short-term, towards the target of resistance level at 49.65. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.

Resistance level: 49.65, 50.20, 50.90

Support level: 49.00, 48.30

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the 20-moving average line (red). Due to the downward expansion of both MA lines after the formation of death cross, gold price is expected to advance further down, towards the support level of 1260.85.

Resistance level: 1267.40, 1274.00

Support level: 1260.85, 1251.45

26 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

ECB may signal tapering, Euro lifts further.

Single common currency – euro has extended its prior rally after investors prospects were buoyed by centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron’s victory during the first round of France’s presidential election. Pair of EUR/USD nudged up 0.1% to $1.0938, not far from 5½ months high of $1.0950. In addition, three sources close to ECB’s Governing Council told Reuters that with the fading treat of a run-off between to presidential candidates in France while coupled with improved economic performance, a handful of policymaker see the scope for sending small signal in June towards reducing their current monetary stimulus. On the other hand, the greenback traded lower against its major peers, trampled by the release of mixed US economic data overnight. The dollar index was flat at 98.65 during early Asian trading hours.

In the commodities market, crude oil price resumed its slide, down 0.42% to $49.35 as data showed a rise in US crude inventories earlier today. Concurrently, gold price sheds 0.13% to $1,264.01 despite a weaker dollar as investors continued to favor riskier assets.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within the trading range while currently testing near the resistance level of 1.2845. With regards to the downward signal from MACD histogram which continues to narrow sideways, GBPUSD may extend its upward momentum after a successful closure above the strong resistance level of 1.2845.

Resistance level: 1.2845, 1.2905

Support level: 1.2775, 1.2700

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD extended its rally following prior rebound from the 20-moving average line (red). However, as the MACD histogram illustrates downward signal and momentum, EURUSD may be traded lower in the short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests an uptrend.

Resistance level: 1.0965, 1.1000

Support level: 1.0920, 1.0875

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its rally following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. As the upward signal from MACD histogram continues to expand upwards, USDJPY is expected to advance further up after a successful closure above the resistance level of 111.30.

Resistance level: 111.30, 112.15

Support level: 110.60, 110.15

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 49.10. As the MACD indicator continues to hover outside of downward momentum, crude oil price is suggested to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction still suggests a downtrend.

Resistance level: 49.70, 50.20

Support level: 49.10, 48.60

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1261.50. As the MACD indicator begins to hover outside of downward momentum, gold price may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, the downward expansion of both MA lines suggests gold price to extend its losses for long-term.

Resistance level: 1265.25, 1269.20

Support level: 1261.50, 1257.00

25 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

Euro nears session high, second-round off in focus.

US dollar rebounded slightly in Asia on Tuesday while investors keep a close watch for further developments in the Korean Peninsula as USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier-led battle group heads to the Sea of Japan. The dollar index nudged up 0.06% to 98.97 against a basket of six major peers as of writing. In the other region, euro eased away from its 5½-months high against the dollar while remained hovered near prior session high as investors flushed into the single currency yesterday after the outcome of French first round of presidential election goes in tandem with expectations. Both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will advance to the second round of election which is scheduled to be held on May 7^th. Previously, euro rose more than 1% on Monday after Macron’s triumph over Le Pen, whom are notorious for her anti-EU stance and retaliation towards globalization.

As for commodities, crude oil price rebounded in Asia and was up 0.41% to $49.43 while investors look ahead to industry estimates of crude oil inventories in the United States. Otherwise, gold price slumped 0.12% to $1,274.33 while investors keep an eye on global geopolitical risk and uncertainty.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                     AUD                      ANZAC Day

All Day                     NZD                      ANZAC Day

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the bottom level of the channel at 1.2770. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest GBPUSD to be traded higher in the short-term within the sideways channel.

Resistance level: 1.2810, 1.2845, 1.2905

Support level: 1.2770, 1.2735

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a trading range of 1.0830 and 1.0875 following prior retracement from the top level of the range. Recent closure below the 20-moving average line (red) suggests EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term, towards the bottom level of the range at 1.0830. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the range.

Resistance level: 1.0875, 1.0920

Support level: 1.0830, 1.0795

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded higher following prior rebound near the 60-moving average line (green) at 109.65. With regards to the downward signal from MACD histogram which continues to narrow upwards, USDJPY is expected to advance further upwards after breaking the resistance level of 110.00.

Resistance level: 110.00, 110.35

Support level: 109.65, 109.35

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the mid-level of the channel. A successful closure above the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest crude oil price to advance further up, towards the upper level of the downward channel.

Resistance level: 49.70, 50.20

Support level: 49.10, 48.65

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing to near the support level of 1274.00. A closure below this level would suggest gold price to advance further downwards, towards the target of support level at 1267.40.

Resistance level: 1282.15, 1295.35

Support level: 1274.00, 1267.40

21 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

Jittery market awaits French poll.

US dollar and Euro was held steady during early Asian trading hours on Friday following prior suspected terrorist shooting in Paris ahead of this weekend’s French presidential election. One policemen were killed while two others were injured after a gunman opened fire in the central of Paris on Thursday night. Dollar index nudged up 0.01% and last quoted at 99.66 against six major peers. On the other hand, EUR/USD was held stable at around $1.0720. “Political uncertainty will remain as a recurrent theme in Eurozone. Previous uptrend on the euro may be utilized by longer-term bears to send the price lower in the event of major news,” research analyst said in a note. As for the greenback, overnight’s disappointing economic data namely Initial Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index adds further downside to the dollar, capping its current gains. Market participants will look forward to a series of data from several nations due later today before shifting their focus to the first round of French presidential election on Sunday.

Looking into the commodities, crude oil price seesawed on Friday as cautious investors weighs upon the ability of OPEC to curb oversupply glut and the rebound of US shale production. Otherwise, gold price was held weaker on Friday, easing 0.07% to $1,280.95 as market participants remains cautious ahead of French polls.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level of the triangle. It is expected to advance further down, towards the lower level of the triangle in short-term. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.

Resistance level: 1.2805, 1.2860

Support level: 1.2750, 1.2700

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high of 1.0775. With regards to the MACD histogram which illustrates moderate downward signal and momentum, EURUSD is expected to move further downwards after breaking the support level of 1.0710.

Resistance level: 1.0735, 1.0775

Support level: 1.0710, 1.0690

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20-moving average line (red). Referring to the MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of upward momentum, USDJPY is suggested to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests USDJPY to advance further upwards.

Resistance level: 109.65, 110.15

Support level: 109.10, 108.10

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level at 50.40. As the downward momentum from MACD histogram continues to subside, crude oil price may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests crude oil price to move further downwards as both MA line continues to expand downwards after the formation of death cross.

Resistance level: 51.20, 52.15

Support level: 50.40, 49.60

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a range of 1283.55 and 1276.80 following prior retracement from the upper level of the range. It is expected to advance further down, towards the lower level of the range at the support level of 1276.80. The overall trend of gold price still remains traded within a downward channel.

Resistance level: 1280.75, 1283.55

Support level: 1276.80, 1271.75

20 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

Cautious atmosphere as French election closes in.

Greenback was caught in a tight trading range on Thursdays, holding off from previous low as investors anxiously await this weekend’s first round of presidential election in France. The dollar index nudged up 0.1% to 99.78 as of writing. Otherwise, the euro was traded flat for the day, last seen at $1.0714. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron take the lead in an opinion poll although the outcome for the first round off will be too close to call for. Millions of French voters remained undecided, making it the least predictable election for decades. Such uncertainty could raise higher anxiety among investor and a potential surprise result may spread large scale turmoil in the financial market. As for other region, pound sterling was held steady at $1.2485 after touching six-months high on Tuesday following British Prime Minister Theresa May calls for an early election prior to Brexit negotiation.

Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price rebounded during early Asian trading hours following prior disappointing inventory data in the US as investors take the advantage to buy the dip. Oil prices was up 0.59% and was last quoted around $51.15 per barrel. Otherwise, gold prices were down slightly by 0.10% to $1,280.17 albeit remained supported ahead of French election this weekend.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:30                       GBP                      BoE Gov Carney Speaks

00:30                       GBP                      BoE Gov Carney Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.2860 while closing below the 20-moving average line (red). As the MACD histogram illustrate moderate downward signal and momentum, GBPUSD is expected to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1.2750.

Resistance level: 1.2805, 1.2860

Support level: 1.2750, 1.2700

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.0700. However, as the upward signal in MACD histogram continues to narrow sideways while coupled with depreciation in upward momentum, EURUSD may be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests EURUSD to be traded higher as both MA lines continue to expand upwards after the formation of golden cross.

Resistance level: 1.0735, 1.0775

Support level: 1.0700, 1.0650

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending triangle while recently rebounded from the support level of 108.70. It is expected to be traded higher in short-term within the triangle, towards the resistance level of 109.20.

Resistance level: 109.20, 109.40

Support level: 108.95, 108.70

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price plunged sharply while closing below both moving average line and two consecutive support levels. However, recent rebound from the support level of 50.40 suggests crude oil price to experience brief technical correction and to be traded higher in short-term. Long-term trend direction still suggests crude oil price to move further down as both moving average line continues to narrow downwards.

Resistance level: 51.20, 52.15

Support level: 50.40, 49.60

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the 20-moving average line (red). As both lines continue to expand downwards, gold price is expected to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1277.20.

Resistance level: 1281.25, 1285.85

Support level: 1277.20, 1271.70

19 April 2017                      Daily Analysis

Sterling rises as May calls for election.

Embattled greenback hovered near three-weeks low against its major peers, having dragged by the resurgent of pound sterling as British Prime Minister Theresa May calls for an early general election ahead of Brexit negotiations. The British currency skyrocketed to more than six-months high after May postulated that an election is needed to “secure strong and stable leadership” in order to sustain smooth terms negotiation with the European Union. The dollar index eased up 0.05% to 99.40, not far from overnight’s low of 99.31. Otherwise, pound sterling was held steady at $1.2837 against the US dollar, its highest level since early October. “May’s decision to hold a vote gave sterling a higher lift. However, we still have other issues in the background such as North Korea and French election which could weigh on overall risk sentiment,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, currency strategist in Tokyo. In addition, the battered greenback experienced wider downside following overnight’s downbeat US homebuilding data and manufacturing output which scares off market’s bet for a bullish momentum.

Peering into the commodities, crude oil price eased by 0.13% to $52.34 on Wednesday due to less-than-expected dip on industry estimates for US crude inventories. Despite concerns over a rebound in US shale industry, some investors are adamant that OPEC-led cuts would help offset the rising levels in US shale production. Similarly, gold price eased 0.34% to $1,287.32 as geopolitical tension on the Korean peninsula begins to boil down.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD has recently broke out from upper level of narrowing triangle, signifying a change in trend direction to move further upwards. With regards to the MACD histogram which illustrates upward signal and momentum, GBPUSD is suggested to extend its upward momentum after a successful closure above the resistance level of 1.2900.

Resistance level: 1.2900, 1.3100

Support level: 1.2700, 1.2500

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has previously broke out from the upper level of ascending triangle, suggesting a change in trend direction to move further upwards. However, recent retracement suggests for a brief technical correction and EURUSD may be traded lower in the short-term. Long-term trend direction suggests for an extension of upward momentum as MACD histogram continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum.

Resistance level: 1.0735, 1.0775

Support level: 1.0645, 1.0570

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending triangle while currently testing at the bottom level of the triangle. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards thereafter. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term within the ascending triangle.

Resistance level: 108.55, 108.80, 109.20

Support level: 108.30, 108.00

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel while recently was traded lower due to a retracement near the resistance level of 52.80. As both moving average line continues to expand downwards after the formation of death cross, crude oil price is expected to move further down, towards the target of support level at 52.60.

Resistance level: 52.80, 53.00

Support level: 52.60, 52.40

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within the downward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. Recent closure below both moving average line suggests gold price to move further downwards, towards the target of support level at 1283.90.

Resistance level: 1288.50, 1295.35

Support level: 1283.90, 1276.85

18 April 2017                       Daily Analysis

Mnuchin cushions the greenback from further losses.

The greenback inches off five-months low versus the Japanese counterpart on Tuesday following comments from US Treasury Steven Mnuchin while higher debt yields provided additional support on the currency. From an interview with the Financial Times, Mnuchin agreed with US President Donald Trump’s view that the dollar strength in the short-term will reduce their export competitiveness. However, he postulated that the long-term effect of such dollar resilience could bring more positivity to the country. Otherwise, its gains remained capped as United States will begin their first economic dialogue with Japan later today. Concerns arises over United States possibility to take a tougher trade stance against Japan whom Trump complains that it and other countries had previously weakened their currencies artificially to gain competitive trade advantage. Likewise, the dollar index was up 0.03% to 100.17 while pairing of USD/JPY appreciated by 0.19% to 109.11.

Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price edged further up as the market look ahead to comments by US Vice President Mike Pence in Tokyo over continued tension on the Korean Peninsula prior to the release of US crude oil inventories estimates by American Petroleum Institute. On the other hand, gold price was trade lower, trimming 0.34% to $1,284.97 while downside remained limited due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

08:30                        AUD                     RBA Meeting Minutes

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a retracement from the strong resistance level of 1.2600. However, as the MACD indicator continues to hover within the upward momentum, a successful rebound from the support level of 1.2550 would suggest GBPUSD to advance further up and retest near the psychological level of 1.2600.

Resistance level: 1.2600, 1.2645

Support level: 1.2550, 1.2500

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within a narrowing triangle while recently rebounded from the mid-level of the triangle, near the support level of 1.0635. It is expected to advance further up, towards the top level of the triangle after a successful closure above the resistance level of 1.0650. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a breakout from either side of the narrowing triangle.

Resistance level: 1.0650, 1.0675

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0620

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement while currently testing near the support level of 108.95. Prior retracement suggests USDJPY to experience brief technical correction and to be traded lower in the short-term. However, long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to advance further up as MACD histogram indicator continues to illustrate upward signal and momentum.

Resistance level: 109.40, 109.90

Support level: 108.95, 108.55, 108.10

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within an upward channel while currently testing near the bottom level of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards thereafter. Otherwise, a rebound would suggest crude oil price to be traded higher for short-term within the channel thereafter.

Resistance level: 53.20, 53.45

Support level: 52.90, 52.60

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 60-moving average line (green). Referring to both of the MA lines which continues to narrow downwards and may form an imminent death cross, gold price is expected to advance further down after a successful closure below the strong support level of 1283.90.

Resistance level: 1290.00, 1295.35

Support level: 1283.90, 1276.85

Dollar recovered while geopolitics continues weighed

The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, with the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.32% to 100.38, mounting a recovery from its slump in the previous session, following President Trump’s comments the currency was “getting too strong” while mostly upbeat economic data lifted sentiment. However the dollar mounted a recovery overnight, as investors seemed to cover short positions, ahead of the Good Friday holiday in the U.S. and Europe this week. Meanwhile, slower than expected growth in initial jobless claims and bullish consumer sentiment lifted sentiment while US producer prices dropped for the first time in seven months. The Labor Department said on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a 234,000 for the week ended April 8 while the producer price index for final demand slipped 0.1% last month. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index climbed to 98.0 in April, well above expectations of a fall to 96.5. On the other hand, The Australian dollar is stronger, up 0.77% at 0.7581, following a series of labor data released as better than expectations.

As for commodities market, Gold prices traded higher on Thursday, added $10.05, or 0.78%, to $1,288.15 a troy ounce as investors continued to back the precious metal amid geopolitical concerns while mostly upbeat economic data failed to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, crude oil price settled higher on Thursday, gained 7 cents to settle at $53.18 a barrel after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the oil demand and supply imbalance was close to breakeven, after several developed countries reined in production.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

All Day                   U.S.                                                        Good Friday

All Day                   E.U.                                                        Good Friday

All Day                   Australia                                               Good Friday

All Day                   New Zealand                        Good Friday

All Day                   U.K.                                                        Good Friday

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD traded lower and currently hovering below the both MA lines. Referring to the MACD where both of the movement lines pointing downward and momentum be seen below the level of 0, suggested GBPUSD to move further lower after the price close below the support level of 1.2500.

Resistance level: 1.2520, 1.2570

Support level: 1.2490, 1.2470

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD hovering between the range of 1.0620 and 1.0610 after it plunged from recent highs to the level below the both MA lines. Both of the MA lines continues narrowing and almost form a death cross, signaled further downside for the pair and suggested to move further lower after the price close below the support level of 1.0610.

Resistance level: 1.0620, 1.0640

Support level: 1.0610, 1.0590

USDJPY

USDJPY,H4: USDJPY remained traded as a down trend and it just rebounded from the support level of 108.70. Referring to the both movement lines in MACD indicator which narrowing and pointing upward, USDJPY suggested to be traded higher in short term. However, the pair expected to continues its down trend after the price close below the support level of 108.70.

Resistance level: 110.30, 111.30

Support level: 108.70, 106.50

GOLD

GOLD,H1: Gold price remained hovering below the resistance level of 1289.00. Based on the directions of both MA lines, it is suggested to move further higher after the price close above the resistance level of 1289.00.

Resistance level: 1289.00, 1300.00

Support level: 1277.00, 1270.00

Crude Oil

CrudeOIL,H4: Crude oil price was closed below the 20MA line (Red) previously, suggested further downside in short term as a technical correction or retracement period. However the trend directions remained pointing upward.

Resistance level: 53.70, 55.00

Support level: 52.20, 51.20

Trump: The dollar is getting too strong

The dollar fell to session lows against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, with the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.31% to 100.31, after President Donald Trump said the currency is getting too strong while geopolitical concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. President Trump told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, that he thinks the currency (dollar) is getting too strong and hinted that he may reappoint Janet Yellen to chair the Federal Reserve Board when her term ends in 2018, as he added “I do like a low-interest rate policy, I must be honest with you.” On the other region, GBP/USD added 0.17% to 1.2511 After the U.K. Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate remained unchanged at an 11-year low of 4.7% in February, in line with expectations. The claimant count unexpectedly increased by 25,500 in March, compared to expectations for a decline of 3,000. Meanwhile, the average earnings index rose 2.3% in the three months to February, compared to forecasts for an increase of 2.2%. Excluding bonuses, wages rose by 2.2%, beating forecasts for a 2.1% gain.

In commodity market, Gold prices traded higher on Wednesday, added $1.05, or 0.09%, to $1,275.45 a troy ounce, but eased from a five-month high, despite increased demand for safe-haven gold amid heightened geopolitical jitters. While crude oil price settled lower, fell by 29 cents to settle at $53.11 a barrel after the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles from record highs while production increased. For the week ending April 5, The EIA said that crude oil inventories fell by 2.166 million barrels compared to estimates of an increase of 0.087 million barrels.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD gained further following the previous price closure above the both MA lines. Currently it heading towards the next target of resistance level at 1.2610. Referring to the both movement lines showed in the MACD indicator which pointing upward additional with the momentum be seen above the level of 0, suggesting further upside for the pair.

Resistance level: 1.2610, 1.2700

Support level: 1.2500, 1.2420

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was closed above the 60MA line (Green) and the resistance level of 1.0650. Suggested the pair to move further higher towards the next target of resistance level at 1.0700. In additional with the both movement lines showed in MACD indicator which pointing upward and the momentum growing above the level of 0, supporting further upward momentum.

Resistance level: 1.0700, 1.0750

Support level: 1.0650, 1.0580

NZDUSD

NZDUSD,H4: NZDUSD surged out from the highest level of downward channel while closed above the resistance level of 0.6990. Referring to the both movement lines in the MACD indicator which pointing upward, suggested further upside for the pair.

Resistance level: 0.7010, 0.7040

Support level: 0.6990, 0.6960

USDCHF

USDCHF,Daily: USDCHF retraced from the highest level of downward channel, signaled to move lower after the price close below the 20MA line (Red) or the support level of 0.9990.

Resistance level: 1.0030, 1.0090

Support level: 0.9990, 0.9950

USDCAD

USDCAD,H4: USDCAD was closed below the previous low or the support level of 1.3260. Referring to the both movement lines showed in MACD indicator which pointing downward now, additional with the momentum be seen below the level of 0, suggested further downward momentum for the pair.

Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3300

Support level: 1.3180

Risk Statement:
Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.

Safe–haven boosted by continued geopolitical tension

The dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, with the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.33% to 100.61, as the ‘flight to safety’ sentiment began to set in for investors amid rising geopolitical tensions. In the absence of top-tier market moving economic data on Tuesday, rising geopolitical events remained front and center, as investors poured into safe-haven assets, after expectations grew the U.S. may take military action against North Korea. The U.S decided to move a Navy strike group toward the Korean peninsula amid continued missile tests by North Korea. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump tweeted on Tuesday, “North Korea is looking for trouble” and signaled that the U.S. is prepared to     solve the problem on its own, should China decline to offer assistance. Some analysts, expected the dollar to continue its downward bias but warned that sentiment has improved in recent trading sessions.

Looking into commodities market, gold prices traded higher on Tuesday, added $20.95, or 1.66%, to $1,274.75 a troy ounce as investors fled risk assets and sought refuge in safe-haven gold amid rising geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, Crude oil price settled higher, gained 32 cents to settle at $53.40 a barrel after reports surfaced that Saudi Arabia supported the idea of extending OPEC-led cuts by an additional six months to the end of the year.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

16:30                     GBP                       BoE Gov Carney Speaks

23:15                     CAD                       BoC Poloz Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD jumped higher to the level above the both MA lines, currently hovering below the resistance level of 1.2500. Referring to the both movement lines showed in the MACD indicator which pointing upward now, in addition with the momentum seen above 0, GBPUSD suggested to move further higher in short term after the price close above the resistance level of 1.2500.

Resistance level: 1.2500, 1.2610

Support level: 1.2420, 1.2360

EURUSD

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD traded higher following a rebound from recent low at the support level of 1.0580. Currently the price traded between the both MA lines, signaled to be traded flat in short term. As for the trend direction for long term, it remained suggested as downtrend.

Resistance level: 1.0650, 1.0700

Support level: 1.0580, 1.0500

USDJPY

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was closed out of the lowest level of recent trading range and below the support level of 110.10, signaled for further downside movement towards the next target of support level at 108.80.

Resistance level: 110.10, 111.40

Support level: 108.80, 106.50

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price continued its uptrend following a rebound from 20 MA line (Red), currently the price testing to close above the resistance level of 53.30. Closing above this level suggested for further upside movement towards the next target of resistance level at 55.00.

Resistance level: 53.30, 55.00

Support level: 51.95, 51.00

GOLD

GOLD_, H4: Gold price surged sharply and was take a breathed at the resistance level of 1280.00. Based on the both movement lines showed in the MACD indicator which pointing upward now suggested the gold price to move further higher. In addition with the trend directions pointed by both MA line, the price is in a strong uptrend now.

Resistance level: 1280.00, 1300.00

Support level: 1246.00, 1220.00

Risk Statement:
Forex, Gold, Crude Oil, Commodities, CFD and all other margin trading investment products involve high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Your previous investment success in stock, futures or any other investment achieved does not mean that all your future investment will obtain the same results. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, risk associated and seek professional advice before deciding to trade or if you have any doubts.