190617 Weekly Analysis
19 June 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: June 19 – 23
Market Review (Forex): June 12 – 16
U.S. Dollar
Greenback slipped against a basket of other major peers on Friday following weak US housing and consumer sentiment data that has backed bets for a slower pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The dollar index was down 0.3% to 97.14 during late Friday trading. It has ended the week with roughly 0.1% of loss.
US homebuilding fell for a third consecutive month in May to its lowest level in eight months which suggest that subdued housing activity may dent economic growth for the second quarter. In a separate report, University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment fell to 94.5 in June from 91.1 in May. Analyst expected for a reading of 97.1.
Previously, the US dollar rose to more than a two-weeks high on Thursday after Federal Reserve raised interest rates as widely expected while maintaining their outlook to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end. In addition, the central bank has provided more details about their plans to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
Despite the relatively hawkish signals, market participants remained doubtful over central bank’s ability to raise its benchmark rates by year end due to a series of disappointing US economic data.
US Building Permits
—– Forecast
Number of building permits issued declined to 1.168 million for the month of May.
US Consumer Sentiment
—– Forecast
Consumer sentiment was down to 94.5 for the month of June.
US Fed Funds Rate
—– Forecast
US interest rates were increased by 25 basis points to 1.25%.
USD/JPY
Pair of USD/JPY was traded flat at 110.91 on Friday.
EUR/USD
Euro rose 0.46% to $1.1197 against the greenback after EU zone’s 19 finance minister backed for a payout for €8.5 billion to Greece in order to pull the country from a default and avert its debt crisis.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling inches higher on Friday, up 0.18% to $1.2780. It remained supported with higher expectations that Bank of England may alter its stance on low interest rates due to increasing number of its members voted in favor for a rate hike on Thursday.
Market Review (Commodities): June 12 – 16
GOLD
Gold prices ended higher on Friday albeit recording its second weekly losses after Federal Reserve hiked their benchmark rates while maintaining its plans to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end. Price of the yellow metal was up 0.2% and closed the week at $1,256.50 a troy ounce after having touch its lowest level since May 24th at $1,252.70 last Thursday. For the week, it has suffered a loss of $13.20 or 1.2%. Likewise, the Fed Rate Monitor Tool is currently showing a 15% for a rate hike in September and 35% chance for December.
Generally, gold price and dollar moves in opposite directions, whereby a weaker dollar would boost the appeal of gold as an alternative asset to investors who uses currencies other than the greenback. Likewise, gold price is sensitive to rising interest rates where it could lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding asset.
Crude Oil
Oil futures settled a tad higher while suffering its fourth weekly losses as the market remained pessimist over rising US drilling activity on the backdrop of ongoing efforts by other major producers to cut output and rebalance the oil price. Crude oil price inched up 0.6% and ended at $44.74 a barrel. For the week, it has suffered a loss of $1.13 or 2.4% thus far which marks the longest weekly loss streak since August 2015.
Investors are concerned that ongoing rebound in US shale production could derail efforts of other producers in reducing global supply glut that has plagued the market for more than two years. Data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that US drillers has added 6 rigs last week to a total of 747, extending its year-long drilling recovery to its highest level since April 2015.
Last month, OPEC and other non-OPEC producers has extended a deal to cut 1.8 billion barrels per day in supply until March 2018. However, the production-cut agreement has yet to show its impact on global inventories level due to rising supply from non-participants such as Libya, Nigeria and the US.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active oil drilling rig in US was increased by 6 last week to a total of 747 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: June 19 – 23
For the week ahead, market players will be focusing on a handful of Federal Reserve speakers as they look for more cues on future monetary policy outlook. In Europe, market players will be eagerly waiting for the start of Brexit negotiations between Britain and European Union. They will also focus on flash survey data on EU zone business activity for fresh clues on the region’s manufacturing and services sector performance.
As for oil traders, they will keep an eye on fresh weekly information on US stockpiles for crude and refined products due Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand from world’s largest oil consumer. Likewise, they will also pay attention to comments from global oil producers for further signals regarding their compliance towards an agreement to reduce its output.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: June 19 – 23
| Monday, June 19 |
Data JPY – Trade Balance (May)
Events USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
|
| Tuesday, June 20 |
Data Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes GBP – BoE Gov Carney Speaks USD – FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks USD – FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks USD – FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
|
| Wednesday, June 21 |
Data GBP – Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) USD – Existing Home Sales (May) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, June 22 |
Data NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision USD – Initial Jobless Claims CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)
Events NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement
|
|
Friday, June 23
|
Data EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (June) CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) USD – New Home Sales (May) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events USD – FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USD – FOMC Member Mester Speaks USD – FOMC Member Powell Speaks
|
Technical weekly outlook: June 19 – 23
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of the range at 97.65. MACD indicator which remained hovered outside of downward momentum suggests dollar index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction only can be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the range.
Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60
Support level: 96.55, 95.55
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remained traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing near the resistance level of 1.2795. Stochastic Oscillator begins to form a retracement signal suggests higher possibility for GBPUSD to be traded lower towards the lower level in short-term. Likewise, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2640, 1.2515
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the support level of 109.40. A closure above the 60-moving average line (green) would suggest USDJPY to extend its upward momentum towards the target of 112.15.
Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40
Support level: 110.60, 109.40
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD remained traded within a range of 1.1130 and 1.1285 while recently retraced from the 20-moving average line (red). It is suggested to fallback towards the lower level of the range in short-term, heading towards the target of 1.1130. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful closure at either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.1285, 1.1400
Support level: 1.1130, 1.1000
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remained traded within an ascending triangle following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 1296.00 while forming a double top. Recent closure below the 60-moving average line (green) suggests gold price to extend its downward momentum towards the support level of 1246.00
Resistance level: 1271.00, 1296.00
Support level: 1246.00, 1217.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel while currently hovering near the lower level. MACD indicator which remained hovered inside the downward momentum suggests crude oil price to extend its losses towards the support level of 44.20.
Resistance level: 45.50, 47.00
Support level: 44.20, 43.00
160617 Daily Analysis
16 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback propelled by hawkish Fed and data.
Greenback stood tall during Friday’s Asian session while on track for weekly gains against a basket of other major currencies, buoyed by overnight’s upbeat US economic data which gave investors some hope that US central bank may follow its plan for one more rate hike in 2017. The dollar index added 0.1% to 97.47 and was up 0.6% for the week. On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve raised their benchmark rates as widely expected and released preliminary details regarding its plan to trim $4 trillion-plus of debt holdings. Analyst deemed the Fed to be relatively hawkish by releasing its plans earlier than expected while keeping the interest rate outlook unchanged despite some slowdown in economic performance. In the Asian region, the dollar rose 0.2% to 111.11 against the Japanese yen while investors await the outcome from Bank of Japan latest policy meeting, followed by news conference with BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The central bank is widely expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy and reassure markets that it has no plans to change its outlook to follow Fed’s tapering.
In the commodities market, crude oil price sits near six-months low and last quoted at $44.45 as ongoing supply overhang suppresses market optimism despite OPEC-led effort to cut production and boost its prices. Otherwise, gold price mend some losses by 0.16% to $1,254.19 after sinking overnight due to upbeat US economic data.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
11:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 11:00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (May) | 1.228M | 1.250M | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 741 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level at 1.2730. MACD histogram continues to illustrate substantial upward signal suggests GBPUSD to extend its upward momentum after breaking the resistance level of 1.2790.
Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2840
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2635
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the bottom level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal and momentum, EURUSD is expected to advance further down towards the target of 1.1100.
Resistance level: 1.1160, 1.1225, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1040
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA lines has recently formed a golden cross formation, it is expected to move further up towards the target of resistance level at 111.60.
Resistance level: 111.60, 112.25
Support level: 110.10, 108.80
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its downward momentum following prior retracement from the top level of downward channel. As the MACD indicator continues to hover inside downward momentum, crude oil price is expected to advance further down towards the support level of 44.00.
Resistance level: 45.30, 46.70
Support level: 44.00, 43.00
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded within an ascending triangle following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 1296.00. Recent closure below the 60-moving average line (green) suggests gold price to extend its downward momentum towards the support level at 1246.00.
Resistance level: 1271.00, 1296.00
Support level: 1246.00, 1217.00
150617 Daily Analysis
15 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Conflicting signals, investors muddled.
US dollar nurses some losses on Thursday as weak US inflation data left investors wondering if the Federal Reserve would follow up its rate hike stance later in the year. Overnight, the Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 25 basis point to a range of 1.00% – 1.25% while maintaining its view that a total of three rate hikes in 2017 would be appropriate. Although the rate hike was widely expected, investors are agitated by recent slowdown in economic activity which may derail expectation for a total of three rate hikes. The central bank remained obstinate that economic growth is progressing moderately while inflation is expected to rise above bank’s 2% target in the medium term. However, the greenback received some bearish pressure as political turmoil in Washington continues to deepen, with Washington Post reporting that US President Donald Trump is being investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller for possible obstruction of justice. “There is a lot to digest, and even some apparently conflicting signals, such as the fact that inflation outlook was revised slightly lower by the Fed but maintaining its intention to raise rates again this year,” said Mitsuo Imaizumi, chief forex strategist. The dollar index ticked down 0.05% and last quoted at 96.80. Against other major peers, EUR/USD was up 0.07% to $1.1227 while pound sterling rose 0.10% to $1.2757.
Peering into the commodities, crude oil price hovers near one-month low after depreciating 0.22% to $44.63 per barrel. Its prices received broad pressure due to high global inventories and rising doubts over OPEC’s ability to implement production cuts. On the other hand, gold price gained 0.2% to $1,265.47 following deepening political turmoil that surrounds Trump administration in the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
15:30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
15:30 CHF SNB Press Conference
19:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
04:00 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 06:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 09:30 | AUD – Employment Change (May) | 37.4K | 10.0K | 42.0K |
| 15:30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 2.3% | -0.8% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (June) | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 245K | 242K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June) | 38.8 | 24.0 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 1.2795. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downwards suggests further downside bias for GBPUSD to move towards the support level of 1.2640.
Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2640, 1.2515
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within an ascending triangle following prior retracement from the top level at 1.1280. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.1225 would suggest EURUSD to extend its gains towards the upper level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1.1225, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1100
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the resistance level of 109.70. Such retracement suggests USDJPY to extend its downward momentum towards the first target at 108.80.
Resistance level: 109.70, 110.60
Support level: 108.80, 108.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the 20-moving average line (red). As MACD continues to hover inside downward momentum, crude oil price is suggested to extend its losses towards the support level of 44.00.
Resistance level: 45.30, 46.70
Support level: 44.00, 43.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded within a descending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level at 1258.50. Recent rebound suggests gold price to extend its retracements towards the first target at 1270.00.
Resistance level: 1270.00, 1281.80
Support level: 1258.50, 1247.50
140617 Daily Analysis
14 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Greenback erodes prior to FOMC meeting.
US dollar extend its losses during early Wednesday trading ahead of US Federal Reserve latest policy review – a highly anticipated event for most investors. The dollar index was down 0.05% to 96.88 as of writing. Overnight, US dollar slumped to two-months low against the Canadian dollar following a surge in demand for Loonie after senior central bank official tips off hawkish signals. According to the Deputy Governor from Bank of Canada, Carolyn Wilkins postulate that policymakers would need to re-evaluate their interest rates as the country’s economy progresses after adjusting to the fallout of lower crude prices. Similar move was seen on the sterling which has regained some grounds following yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation data. According to the Office for National Statistics, annual rate of inflation accelerated to 2.9% in May, its highest level since June 2013 and well above Bank of England’s target of 2%. A surge in demand for sterling and Loonie has dented the dollar’s strength ahead of Federal Reserve’s policy meeting where majority of traders are expecting an interest rate hike. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen for further clues on future monetary policy stance.
As for commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 1.10% to $45.95 a barrel after industrial data showed a surprise build in US crude stocks by 2.8 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price was traded at break-even around $1,268.80 as the precious metal struggled to capitalize on a weaker dollar due to higher expectation for an interest rate hike.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative Crude Oil IEA Report
02:00 USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 10:00 | CNY – Industrial Production (YoY) (May) | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr) | 2.4% | 2.4% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (May) | 19.4K | 20.3K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.4% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.295M | -2.739M | – |
| 02:00 | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 1.00% | 1.25% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the strong support level at 1.2635. MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of downward momentum suggests GBPUSD to extend its retracement period and move further up towards the target of resistance level at 1.2790.
Resistance level: 1.2790, 1.2840
Support level: 1.2730, 1.2635
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trend line. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests EURUSD to advance further up, and retest near the strong resistance level of 1.1225.
Resistance level: 1.1225, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1100
USDCAD
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD has extended its losses following prior formation of death cross by both moving average line. However, as the MACD histogram illustrates a diminishing downward momentum, USDCAD may be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests it to move further down after breaking the support level of 1.3190.
Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3330
Support level: 1.3190, 1.3120
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrates significant downward signal suggests USDJPY to move further down towards the lower level after successfully breaking the support level of 109.95.
Resistance level: 110.15, 110.40
Support level: 109.95, 109.75
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator begins to form a downward signal suggests crude oil price to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 45.30.
Resistance level: 46.70, 48.40
Support level: 45.30, 44.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior closure above the 23.6 Fibonacci level at 1267.60. Referring to MACD histogram which illustrate persistent upward signal and momentum, gold price may extend its technical correction and move further up towards the resistance level of 1273.00.
Resistance level: 1273.00, 1277.40
Support level: 1267.60, 1263.00
130617 Daily Analysis
13 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Cautious investors await Fed’s decision.
US dollar was traded flat against a basket of six major currencies, failing to rebound from a sharp dip in sterling while expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Thursday limit its downside bias. The dollar index was last seen at 97.13 during early Asian session. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, traders are currently pricing in at 90% for the Fed to increase its benchmark rate by 25 basis points after its two-day meeting concludes. While interest hike is widely expected, most investors remained cautious over a potential shift in tone on the prospect of US economy as prior released data showed a weaker-than-expected performance. Meanwhile in the UK, pound sterling ticked up 0.06% to $1.2666 albeit remained under pressure as political uncertainty continues to dominate the currency while investors remained concerned over upcoming Brexit negotiations in the wake of surprise election results.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.35% to $46.24 per barrel while market participants look ahead for fresh readings from US inventories and reports from both OPEC and IEA for further market signals. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.18% to $1,263.84 as attention shift towards the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
Tentative Crude Oil OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – NAB Business Confidence (May) | 13 | – | 7 |
| 16:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.7% | 2.7% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (June) | 20.6 | 21.5 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – PPI (MoM) (May) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -4.620M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD remained under pressure as both moving average line continues to narrow downwards. MACD histogram which illustrates a significant downward signal and momentum suggests GBPUSD to extend its downtrend after breaking the support level of 1.2640.
Resistance level: 1.2795, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2640, 1.2515
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level at 1.1230. The recent formation of death cross by both MA line suggests further downside bias for EURUSD to extend its losses, towards the target of support level at 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1230, 1.1285
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 109.65. With regards to MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of downward momentum suggests USDJPY to extend its technical correction towards the resistance level of 110.10.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.40
Support level: 109.65, 109.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the support level of 45.30. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line suggests crude oil price to move further up, towards the target of resistance level at 46.70 in short-term.
Resistance level: 46.70, 48.40
Support level: 45.30, 44.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior formation of death cross by both moving average line. The formation suggests a further downside bias for gold price to extend its losses after breaking the strong support level of 1264.70.
Resistance level: 1276.65, 1295.95
Support level: 1264.70, 1255.05
090617 Daily Analysis
Ghastly exit polls spooks sterling to nosedive.
Great British Pound fell sharply on Friday after British election exit poll showed possibility of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party falling short of a majority, likely to result in a hung parliament. Sterling was down 0.67% to $1.2746 after touching one-month low of $1.2690. However, analysts suggest that it is too early to call for and that initial reads of key constituencies gives hope to hold majorities. “There were many participants whom take advantage of the volatility resulted from the election, thus explaining its initial steep nosedive,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist. “The swings in pound has not spilled over to other currencies as the market are well hedged and prepared for a variety of election scenarios.” In the EU, euro slid 0.24% to $1.1183 as the European Central Bank scaled back inflation expectation for the next two years while hinting further interest rate cuts. Otherwise, the dollar index was up 0.45% to 97.27, buoyed by a large sell-offs from pound sterling. Overnight, former FBI director James Comey accused US President Donald Trump of undermining its investigation over possible collusion of his administration with Russia. However, his testimony did not offer fresh insight for the financial market to catalyze significant momentum on the greenback.
In the commodities market, oil prices extended its losses by 0.44% to $45.44 a barrel as the market remained pessimist due to fuel supply overhang which continues to linger despite OPEC’s effort to tighten the market by holding back its daily production. On the other hand, gold price eases 0.09% to $1,280.63 while investors stood on the edge over UK election results.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | CNY – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) | -0.6% | 0.9% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Employment Change (May) | 3.2K | 11.0K | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 733 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior nosedive while closing below both moving average line. However, MACD indicator continues to drift outside of downward momentum suggests GBPUSD to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests GBPUSD to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 1.2690.
Resistance level: 1.2775, 1.2825
Support level: 1.2690, 1.2620
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke the upward trend line, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. Both MA lines which continues to narrow downward suggests EURUSD to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1285, 1.1330
Support level: 1.1180, 1.1115
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an upward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests USDJPY to advance further up towards the target of 110.40 in short-term.
Resistance level: 110.40, 110.70
Support level: 110.10, 109.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its prior losses following the downward expansion of both MA line after the formation of death cross. MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal suggests crude oil price to move further down after breaking the support level of 45.50.
Resistance level: 46.90, 47.85
Support level: 45.50, 44.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1286.00 while currently testing near the support level of 1276.65. MACD histogram continues to illustrate downward signal suggests gold price to extend its losses after breaking the level of 1276.65.
Resistance level: 1286.00, 1295.95
Support level: 1276.65, 1264.70
080617 Daily Analysis
8 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Bumpy ride ahead as Super Thursday approaches.
US dollar was offered higher on Thursday as while market participants look ahead to a trio of events that will heighten market risk namely European Central Bank (ECB) policy review, UK general election and testimony by former FBI director James Comey to the Congress. The dollar index ticked up 0.03% to 96.67 against six major peers. Overnight, greenback pared some gains as euro recovered some losses following reports that ECB may remain their dovish outlook at today’s policy announcement. Euro dipped 0.64% to $1.1204 after an alleged ECB draft suggests that they will cut its inflation forecast for the next three years to 1.5% due to slumping energy prices. The large sell-off in euro spurred a rise in greenback although its upside remained limited as investors adopt cautious approach before Comey testifies about Russia’s alleged involvement in US election last year. In the other region, pound sterling was held steady at $1.2961 while UK election will be the main focal point for the currency and its political outlook.
As for commodities market, crude oil price was up 0.57% to $45.98 following overnight’s slump after EIA reported a surprise swell in US crude inventories for the first time in 10 weeks. Crude inventories rose 3.3 million barrels for week ended June 2nd, missing economist expectation for a draw of 3.5 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.38% to $1,285.22 due to stronger dollar while investors anticipates a flurry of risky events later in the day.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
All Day GBP UK General Election
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
23:15 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 09:30 | AUD – Trade Balance (Apr) | 3.107B | 1.950B | 0.555B |
| 10:30 | CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (May) | 38.05B | 46.32B | – |
| 15:15 | CHF – CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.1% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (June) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 248K | 240K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remained traded within an upward channel while currently testing at the top level. Stochastic Oscillator illustrates a retrace signal from overbought level suggests GBPUSD to advance further down, towards the lower level of the channel after breaking the support level of 1.2940.
Resistance level: 1.2965, 1.2990
Support level: 1.2940, 1.2910
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within a sideways channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.1245. A closure above the 60-moving average line (green) would suggest EURUSD to advance further up, towards the upper level of the channel. Long-term trend direction could only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1245, 1.1205, 1.1185
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its technical correction following prior rebound from the support level of 109.10. With regards to MACD histogram which illustrates substantial upward signal, it is expected to move further up towards the target of resistance level at 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 111.10
Support level: 109.60, 109.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price slumped sharply following prior breakthrough from the strong support level of 46.90. MACD histogram which illustrates downward signal and momentum suggests crude oil price to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 45.50.
Resistance level: 46.90, 47.85
Support level: 45.50, 44.70
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1284.00. However, as both moving average line continues to narrow downwards and may form an imminent death cross formation, gold price is subject to downside bias towards the target of support level at 1284.00.
Resistance level: 1290.00, 1295.50
Support level: 1284.00, 1277.40
070617 Daily Analysis
7 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Risk-off sentiment ahead of risky super Thursday.
US dollar wobbles near seven-months low against its major peers with traders remained cautious ahead of Britain’s general election, European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision and testimony by former FBI Director James Comey. The dollar index eased 0.04% to 96.52 during early Asian trading hours. Greenback remained under pressure as previous bullish equities began to decline, with Wall Street shares pulling away from its recent record high while US Treasury yields slumped to seven-months low. Comey, whom is due to testify on Thursday was investigating whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign colluded with Russia to sway the 2016 US election when he was fired by Trump in May. Investors are worried that his testimony could dampen the momentum for Trump’s economic agenda such as tax reform and larger fiscal spending. In the other region, euro was a shy off seven-months high and last quoted at $1.1270 while investors await to sift through President Mario Draghi’s statements for his view on EU zone economy outlook.
In the commodities, crude oil price dipped 0.35% to $48.02 as global fuel market remained oversupplied although rising tension in Middle East and decreasing US stockpiles lend some support. Otherwise, gold prices depreciate by 0.19% to $1,291.88 as some investors began to cash-in their profits after reaching seven-weeks high.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 15:30 | GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (May) | -0.1% | -0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) | -5.8% | – | – |
| 22:30 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -6.428M | -3.464M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remained traded within an upward channel while recently retraced from the mid-level. A closure below the 60-moving average line (green) would suggest GBPUSD to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1.2890 in short-term.
Resistance level: 1.2920, 1.2940
Support level: 1.2890, 1.2860
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within an ascending triangle following prior retracement from the top level. It is suggested to move further down and test near the bottom level after breaking the support level of 1.1260. Any breakout from the bottom level of the triangle would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1260, 1.1230, 1.1200
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has pulled back from its recently decline while currently hovering near the support level of 109.45. MACD histogram which shows a diminishing downward momentum suggest USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests USDJPY to move further down after breaking the support level of 109.45.
Resistance level: 110.50, 111.25
Support level: 109.45, 108.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price has recently break out from the top level of descending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA line continues to expand upwards after the formation of golden cross, crude oil price is suggested to advance and retest near the resistance level of 48.40.
Resistance level: 48.40, 49.00
Support level: 47.90, 47.50, 46.95
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following recent retrace from previous high of 1295.50. MACD indicator which hovers outside of upward momentum suggests gold price to be traded lower in short-term and head towards the target of support level at 1290.30 as technical corrections.
Resistance level: 1295.50, 1300.00
Support level: 1290.30, 1284.00
060617 Daily Analysis
6 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar subdued, rate hike sentiment intact.
Aussie dollar eased slightly on early Tuesday following initial bump while investors awaits the latest central bank rate review later in the day. Pair of AUD/USD ticked down 0.04% and exchange hands at $0.7484. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing its latest interest rate decision while most analyst expects them to maintain it at a record low of 1.50%. On the other hand, US dollar creeps towards six-months low against a basket of six major peers following broad selling pressure across the board. Overnight, US non-manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in May after ISM reported that its index fell 0.6 points to 56.9. Prior slew of soft economic data, however, has failed to dent investor’s expectation for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later this month. Referring to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, almost 90% of traders expects a 25-basis point hike during FOMC’s meeting next week.
As for commodities, crude oil price remained under pressure as concerns over political rift between several Arab states and Qatar may undermine OPEC’s effort to tighten the oversupplied oil market. Crude oil price was down 0.36% to $47.24 a barrel during Asian trading hours. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.18% to $1,281.63 while investors look ahead to a series of risk events later in the week to gauge market sentiment.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
12:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 12:30 | AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (June) | 1.50% | 1.50% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Apr) | 5.743M | 5.650M | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – Ivey PMI (May) | 62.4 | 62.0 | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -8.670M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remained traded within an upward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.2890. It is expected to extend its upward momentum towards the top level after breaking the resistance level of 1.2925.
Resistance level: 1.2925, 1.2960
Support level: 1.2890, 1.2855
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within the upward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.1255. It is expected to extend its gains and move further upwards after breaking the resistance level of 1.1280.
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1300
Support level: 1.1255, 1.1230
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior closure below the strong support level of 110.50. As both MA lines continue to expand downwards, USDJPY is expected to move further down towards the target of support level at 109.45.
Resistance level: 110.50, 111.25
Support level: 109.45, 108.70
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its downtrend following prior downward expansion of both MA lines after the formation of death cross while currently testing near the strong support level of 46.90. A successful closure below the level of 46.90 would suggests crude oil price to move further down towards the target of support level at 45.50.
Resistance level: 47.85, 48.85
Support level: 46.90, 45.50
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1276.85 while currently testing at the resistance level of 1284.00. Gold price is suggested to extend its current uptrend after breaking the resistance level of 1284.00.
Resistance level: 1284.00, 1290.30
Support level: 1276.85, 1270.30
050617 Weekly Analysis
5 June 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: June 5 – 9
Market Review (Forex): May 29 – June 2
U.S. Dollar
Greenback fell to seven-months low against other major currency following the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls report which gives substantially poor reading, fueling higher uncertainty over the outlook for rate hikes by the Federal Reserves for the second half of the year. The dollar index was down 0.57% to 96.61 during late Friday trading, its lowest close since US Presidential Election on November 8th.
According to the Labor Department, the economy has added only 138,000 jobs last month, falling short of economist’s expectation for 185,000 jobs. In addition, figures for the month of March and April was revised to show that 66,000 jobs were fell short, indicating that the labor market might be losing its momentum although unemployment rate ticked down to a 16-years low of 4.3%.
However, most analysts believe that the disappointing data would not hinder the Feds from raising its interest rates later this month. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability for an interest rate hike on June 14th is roughly around 88%, down from 89% prior to the release of jobs report. Otherwise, a weaker-than-expected jobs growth could dial down overall expectation for an economic growth rebound in the second quarter after the economy expanded only by 1.2% for the first quarter.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
—– Forecast
US economy generated 138,000 jobs last month, failing to reach expectation for 185,000 jobs.
US Unemployment Rate
—– Forecast
US unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1% to 4.3% for the month of May.
USD/JPY
Dollar retreats from its one-week high against the yen, with USD/JPY paring 0.88% of gains to 110.38.
EUR/USD
Euro was up 0.6% to $1.1280 during late Friday trading following broad selling pressure on the US dollar.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling eases slightly and was last seen at $1.2887 on Friday.
Market Review (Commodities): May 29 – June 2
GOLD
Gold prices rose to its highest level in more than a month on Friday following weak US jobs report which has underlined the case for US Federal Reserve in raising their interest rates at a gradual pace. Price of the yellow metal was up almost 1% to $1,278.77, its highest close since April 25th. In summary, US economy generated only 138,000 jobs last month, falling short of economist expectations while figures for March and April were revised down to show 66,000 fewer jobs were created. Such reading has further raise uncertainty over US Federal Reserve which were largely expected to raise their interest rates on 14th June.
Generally, gold price and dollar moves in opposite directions, whereby a weaker dollar would boost the appeal of gold as an alternative asset to investors who uses currencies other than the greenback. Likewise, gold price is sensitive to rising interest rates where it could lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding asset.
Crude Oil
Crude oil settled at its lowest level in more than three weeks on Friday while tacking in its largest weekly loss in a month amid growing concern over rising shale production in the United States. Its prices fell 70 cents or 1.5% to $47.66 per barrel. Investors were concerned over the ongoing rebound in US shale industry which could derail efforts by other major producers in reducing global supply glut which has pressured its prices for the last two years.
Data from energy services company, Baker Hughes reported that US drillers has added 11 oil drilling rigs last week, to a total of 733 thus far. On the other hand, the controversial decision of US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement on Thursday has sparked higher concerns that the US oil production could expand rapidly in the absence of stringent focus on curbing the use of fossil fuels.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active oil drilling rig in US was increased by 11 last week to a total of 733 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: June 5 – 9
Events in the Europe would likely to set the tone for global financial market namely European Central Bank policy meeting and British national election. Likewise, Chinese data on trade and inflation will also be closely watched. In the US, market participants will be paying close attention to testimonial given by former FBI director James Comey in front of Senate Intelligence Committee which could add further difficulties to Trump administration.
As for oil market, traders will be eyeing fresh weekly information upon US crude and refined products stockpiles due Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: June 5 – 9
| Monday, June 5 |
Data CNY – Caixin Services PMI (May) GBP – Services PMI (May) USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
Events N/A
|
| Tuesday, June 6 |
Data AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (June) USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Apr) CAD – Ivey PMI (May) Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events AUD – RBA Rate Statement
|
| Wednesday, June 7 |
Data AUD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) GBP – Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (May) CAD – Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
| Thursday, June 8 |
Data JPY – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) AUD – Trade Balance (Apr) CNY – Trade Balance (USD) (May) CHF – CPI (MoM) (May) EUR – Deposit Facility Rate EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (June) USD – Initial Jobless Claims
Events GBP – UK General Election EUR – ECB Press Conference CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
|
|
Friday, June 9
|
Data CNY – CPI (YoY) (May) GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) CAD – Employment Change (May) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: June 5 – 9
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remained traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the support level of 96.55. However, as both MA line continues to expand downwards, a breakout from the bottom level would signal a change in trend direction to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60
Support level: 96.55, 95.55
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-moving average line (red). MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of upward momentum suggests GBPUSD to oscillate in between the range of 1.2795 and 1.2925 in short-term. Long-term trend direction suggests it to move further up after breaking the resistance level of 1.2925.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.2925
Support level: 1.2795, 1.2640
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 111.70. Referring to MACD histogram which illustrates significant downward signal and momentum, a closure below the strong support level of 110.25 would suggest USDJPY to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 111.70, 113.00
Support level: 110.25, 108.50
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD extended its gains following prior rebound from the support level of 1.1100. However, MACD indicator begins to drift outside of upward momentum suggest EURUSD to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction still suggests EURUSD for further upside.
Resistance level: 1.1285, 1.1425
Support level: 1.1100, 1.0950
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has extended its gains following prior breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD histogram which illustrates substantial upward signal suggests gold price to move further up, towards the target of resistance level at 1295.15.
Resistance level: 1295.15, 1314.75
Support level: 1273.70, 1244.85
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 47.00. The Stochastic Oscillator begins to illustrate rebound signal near the oversold region suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term, towards the resistance level of 48.45.
Resistance level: 48.45, 50.00
Support level: 47.00, 45.50
020617 Daily Analysis
2 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar-bulls on cue, NFP speculated to deliver.
US dollar tacks at one-week high against Japanese yen while dollar-bulls awaits the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls report for another potential upside. The dollar index eased 0.01% to 97.21 while pair of USD/JPY rose 0.22% to 111.62. Overnight, greenback advances against other major currencies following the release of US private-sector jobs data which showed better-than-expected reading that has catalyzed higher expected for a firm jobs report. Private employers have added 253,000 jobs for the month of May, well above Wall Street’s expectation for an increase of only 185,000. The greenback received further support after US manufacturing activity ticked higher to 53.5 in May with expected rise of 52.8 seen. “If tonight’s jobs report is strong, we might see the dollar make a significant headway as it would prompt speculators to unwind their short position on the currency and US Treasuries,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slid nearly 1% and was last seen at $48.10 during amid growing concern among investors over global supply glut despite larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories. Similarly, gold price shed 0.31% to $1,263.03 following greenback’s surge prior to better-than-expected private jobs data from yesterday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – Construction PMI (May) | 53.1 | 52.7 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (May) | 211K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Unemployment Rate (May) | 4.4% | 4.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Trade Balance (Apr) | -43.70B | -46.10B | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Trade Balance (Apr) | -0.14B | -0.07B | – |
| 01:00 | Crude Oil – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 722 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remained traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retracement from the top level. A closure below the 20-moving average line (red) would suggest GBPUSD to move further down, towards the target of support level at 1.2850.
Resistance level: 1.2890, 1.2930
Support level: 1.2850, 1.2815
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was thinly traded near the resistance level of 1.1220 following prior retracement from previous high. However, as the MACD indicator begins to hover outside of upward momentum, EURUSD may be traded lower in short-term as technical correction. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests EURUSD to move further up after closing above 1.1220.
Resistance level: 1.1220, 1.1265
Support level: 1.1165, 1.1100
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently broke out from the downward trend line, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. MACD histogram which illustrates the expansion of upward signal line suggests USDJPY to advance further up towards the target of resistance level at 111.80.
Resistance level: 111.80, 112.30
Support level: 111.20, 110.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-moving average line (red). As both MA lines continue to expand downwards, crude oil price is suggested to extend its losses after breaking the support level of 47.85.
Resistance level: 48.85, 50.05
Support level: 47.85, 46.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. A closure below the support level of 1261.40 would suggest gold price to extend its losses towards the bottom level of the channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 1271.00, 1278.20
Support level: 1261.40, 1253.80
010617 Daily Analysis
1 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Sterling stumbles, greenback tumbles.
US dollar dwindles near recent six-months low while pound sterling slipped as latest opinion poll showed trimmed support for Prime Minister Theresa May’s ruling party before next week’s national election. The greenback slipped to sessions low on yesterday following softer US pending home sales data which illustrates lagging outlook for housing market. Such reading has spook off some dollar-bulls which are looking forward for next interest rate hike which could be initiated as soon as next FOMC meeting on June 13th. The dollar index was last seen at around 96.90, not far from six-months low of 96.65. Likewise, pound sterling remained under pressure from yesterday’s YouGov which reported that May’s Conservative Party is leading with only 3 percentage point difference as compared to the opposition Labor Party. Such reading gave pessimistic undertone to the market whereby she might fall short of a majority support during next week’s election. Pairing of GBP/USD eased 0.08% to $1.2880.
Peering into the commodities, crude oil price rose 0.97% to $48.79 after the US industry report showed a larger draw in crude stockpiles. According to American Petroleum Institute, crude inventories for week ended May 26th was down 8.7 million barrels, larger than prior expected decrease of only 2.5 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.36% to $1,267.44 as greenback mends its prior session losses during Asian trading hours.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) | -2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 09:30 | AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 09:45 | CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) | 50.3 | 50.1 | 49.6 |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 59.4 | 59.4 | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Manufacturing PMI (May) | 57.3 | 56.5 | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) | 177K | 185K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 234K | 239K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) | 54.8 | 54.5 | – |
| 23:00 | Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories | -4.432M | -2.517M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD were traded lower following prior retrace near the 20-moving average line at 1.2920. With regards to MACD indicator which continues to hover outside of upward momentum, GBPUSD is expected to continue its oscillation in between the range of 1.2920 and 1.2795 in short-term. Long-term trend direction still suggests an upward trend ahead after a closure above the resistance level of 1.2920.
Resistance level: 1.2920, 1.3045
Support level: 1.2795, 1.2640
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD has recently broke out from the top level of downward channel, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. As both MA lines continue to expand upwards, a successful closure above the resistance level of 1.1255 would suggest an extension of uptrend for EURUSD.
Resistance level: 1.1255, 1.1280
Support level: 1.1225, 1.1200
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within a downward channel following prior retrace from the top level. Recent closure below the 60-moving average line (green) suggest USDJPY to move further downwards after successfully closing below the support level of 110.85.
Resistance level: 111.10, 111.40
Support level: 110.85, 110.65
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 47.85. As the downward signal from MACD histogram begins to diminish, crude oil price may extend its current upward momentum after breaking the resistance level of 48.85.
Resistance level: 48.85, 50.05
Support level: 47.85, 46.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 60-moving average line (green). Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests gold price to move further upwards towards the target of resistance level at 1271.00. A breakout from the top level of upward channel would signal a change in trend direction to move further up thereafter.
Resistance level: 1271.00, 1278.20
Support level: 1261.40, 1253.80, 1246.00
310517 Daily Analysis
31 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Sterling unenthusiastic with May’s performance.
Great British Pound received tremendous selling pressure on Wednesday after the release of latest opinion poll which shows that the conservatives are losing their ground. Pair of GBP/USD was down 0.30% to $1.2820 this morning. A report from YouGov which utilizes constituency-by-constituency modelling illustrates that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives Party may risk falling short of winning a majority number of seats in parliament during next month’s national election on June 8th. The narrowing in support for May’s party and its opponent has further deterred overall confidence among investors where a downfall of May in the election could spark higher political and economic uncertainty prior to their exit from the EU. In the other region, greenback rebounds from overnight’s slump as market players digests US consumer spending data which has recorded its biggest increase in four months during April, suggesting a firm domestic demand that would allow the Federal Reserve to raise their interest rates. The dollar index was up 0.15% and last quoted at 97.27 against six major peers.
As for commodities, crude oil price edges lower after shedding 0.40% to $49.46 while investors look forward for US weekly crude inventory estimates due tomorrow morning. Likewise, gold price depreciates by 0.10% to $1,260.85 despite a rebound in US dollar while ongoing geopolitical concern in Europe limits its downside.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
07:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (May) | 51.2 | 51.0 | 51.2 |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) | 54.0 | – | 54.5 |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (May) | -15K | -15K | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Net Lending to Individuals | 4.7B | 4.5B | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.9% | 1.5% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Mar) | 0.0% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (May) | 58.3 | 57.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.8% | 0.5% | – |
| 04:30 | Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -1.500M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remained traded within the range of 1.2790 and 1.2885 while recently rebounded from the bottom level of the range. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.2820 would suggest GBPUSD to move further upwards in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the range.
Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2850, 1.2885, 1.2910
Support level: 1.2790, 1.2755
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within a downward channel while recently rebounded from the support level of 1.1170. Stochastic Oscillator which begins to illustrate rebound signal from the oversold region suggests EURUSD to be traded higher towards the target of resistance level at 1.1190.
Resistance level: 1.1190, 1.1205
Support level: 1.1170, 1.1145
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY continued to hover near the support level of 110.60, suggesting a strong support down ahead. A rebound from this level would suggest an extension of technical retracement and to be traded higher in short-term. Otherwise, as MACD histogram continues to illustrate substantial downward signal, a closure below the level of 110.60 would suggest USDJPY to extend is downward momentum.
Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40
Support level: 110.60, 108.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remained traded within a narrowing triangle while recently retraced from the top level of the triangle. It is suggested to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the triangle. Long-term trend direction could only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 49.60, 50.00
Support level: 49.00, 48.15
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remained within an upward channel following prior retracement near the resistance level of 1271.00. A closure below the 60-moving average line (green) would suggest gold price to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 1253.80.
Resistance level: 1263.00, 1271.00
Support level: 1253.80, 1246.00
300517 Daily Analysis
30 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Euro-bull snapped as political uncertainty arises.
Greenback held firmed on Tuesday while regaining its position against euro and sterling which were pressured by political uncertainties in the eurozone and UK. The dollar index was up 0.30% to 97.55 against six major peers. Traders had a subdued start for the week with financial markets in US and UK closed for holidays on Monday. Likewise, market participants will be looking ahead to Friday’s highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to set near-term market sentiment. A strong US jobs report would cement overall expectation for a rate hike by US Federal Reserve during its next meeting in June. Otherwise, euro slipped 0.35% to $1.1127 after former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said that it is plausible for Italy’s next election to be held around the same time as Germany, which is scheduled on September. “A selloff was evoked after the market begun to realize there’s political uncertainty in Italy as Renzi’s comment are in favor for snap election,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.26% to $49.93 as summer driving season in United States suggested strong fuel demand for the months ahead. US demand for transport fuels such as gasoline and diesels tend to rise significantly during summer as families go on holidays and travel across the country. As for safe haven gold, price of the yellow metal rose 0.14% to $1,269.36 while investors await US employment report due this Friday.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CNY China – Dragon Boat Festival
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr) | -13.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.0% | -0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr) | 0.0% | 0.4% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (May) | 120.3 | 119.8 | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while remained hovering near the 23.6 Fibonacci level of 1.2795. However, as the MACD histogram continues to illustrate substantial downward signal, a successful closure below the support level of 1.2795 would suggest GBPUSD to move further downwards.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2640
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD has recently broke out from the bottom level of descending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further downwards. As both MA lines continue to narrow downwards, EURUSD is suggested to move lower towards the target of support level at 1.1100.
Resistance level: 1.1165, 1.1265
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1050
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY has recently formed a head and shoulders pattern, while currently testing at the neckline of 110.85. A closure below the neckline would suggest USDJPY to extended its losses to the next target of support level at 110.20.
Resistance level: 111.45, 112.10
Support level: 110.85, 110.20
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance level of 50.00 and currently testing in between both moving average line. A closure below the 20-moving average line (red), would suggest crude oil price to advance further down, towards the target of support level at 48.85.
Resistance level: 50.00, 52.00
Support level: 48.85, 47.85
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price has recently break out from the top level of ascending triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. It is expected to extend its uptrend after breaking the resistance level of 1271.00
Resistance level: 1271.00, 1278.00
Support level: 1261.00, 1253.80, 1246.00
290517 Weekly Analysis
29 May 2017 Weekly Analysis
GCMAsia Weekly Report: May 29 – June 2
Market Review (Forex): May 22 – 26
U.S. Dollar
The greenback rose against a basket of six major peers following Friday’s data that shows US first quarter economic growth was revised higher than previously expected. The dollar index was up 0.2% to 97.33 after touching one-week high of 97.47.
US economy slowed less than initially thought for the first three months of the year. The latest reading of Gross Domestic Product shows an annual growth rate of 1.2%, slightly higher than initial estimate of 0.7%. Although it is the weakest expansion since the first quarter of 2016, economists postulate that it may rebound sharply for the second quarter of the year.
Prior to the release, the dollar came under pressure following dovish meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve which has spooked off dollar-bulls whom are expecting for more hawkish rate hike sentiment.
US Gross Domestic Product
—– Forecast
US GDP for first quarter came in at 1.2%, slightly better than previous revision of 0.7% seen.
USD/JPY
Japanese yen remained resilient with the pairing of USD/JPY shedding 0.43% to 111.34.
EUR/USD
Euro was offered lower during late Friday trading, down 0.26% to $1.1182.
GBP/USD
Pound sterling fell to one-month low with the pair of GBP/USD nosedive 1.1% to $1.2798 after opinion poll shows that the Labor Party is narrowing the gap with Conservative Party well ahead of upcoming elections on June 8th.
Market Review (Commodities): May 22 – 26
GOLD
Gold prices rose to one-month high on Friday as economic and political uncertainty continues to underpin the demand for safe haven assets. Price of the yellow metal was up 0.82% to $1,266.65 while adding up 1.16% of gains for the week. Gold remained higher although the greenback rebounds from its prior low after data showed that the US economy slowed less than expected for the first quarter.
The demand for gold remained supported as expectations for fiscal stimulus under Trump’s administration faded due to political turmoil in Washington. Investors sentiment was hit by ongoing worries that US political system might engulfed in crisis which could further delay lawmakers to push through tax and spending reforms.
Crude Oil
Oil prices settled higher on Friday, rebounding from prior low as it skydived more than 5% following the release of official statement from OPEC’s meeting in Vienna. Crude oil price settled up 1.9% or 90 cents and ended the week at $49.80 per barrel. For the week, it has pared some losses to less than 2% following Thursday’s slumped after the meeting concluded.
OPEC and other producing countries agreed to extend their production cut deal until the end of first quarter of 2018. While OEPC’s move was widely expected, some oil traders hoped that the producers would agree for deeper cuts in order to drain global glut of crude supplies more effectively. So far, the production cut agreement which began earlier this year had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from non-participating producers such as Libya, Nigeria and United States.
Otherwise, US oilfield services provider Baker Hughes showed that US drillers has added rigs for 19th consecutive week last Friday. The US rig count was increased by 2 to a total of 722 thus far, its highest level since April 2015.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Active oil drilling rig in US was increased by 2 last week to a total of 722 thus far.
Weekly Outlook: May 29 – June 2
For the week ahead, market participants will be focusing on Friday’s highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report for further indication of next interest rate hike and its trajectory throughout the year. As for euro zone, investors will be waiting for monthly inflation data to assess the timing of ECB in tapering their massive asset purchase program as the economic zone continues to show progressive recovery.
In the oil market, traders will keep an eye on fresh weekly information regarding US stockpiles of crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: May 29 – June 2
| Monday, May 29 |
Data N/A
Events ECB President Draghi Speaks
|
| Tuesday, May 30 |
Data AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr) EUR – German CPI (MoM) (May) USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (May)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, May 31 |
Data CNY – Manufacturing PMI (May) CNY – Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) EUR – German Unemployment Change (May) GBP – Net Lending to Individuals EUR – CPI (YoY) (May) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Mar) USD – Chicago PMI (May) USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) Crude Oil – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Events NZD – RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
|
| Thursday, June 1 |
Data AUD – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) CNY – Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (May) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Crude Oil – Crude Oil Inventories
Events N/A
|
|
Friday, June 2
|
Data GBP – Construction PMI (May) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (May) USD – Unemployment Rate (May) USD – Trade Balance (Apr) CAD – Trade Balance (Apr) Crude Oil – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|
Technical weekly outlook: May 29 – June 2
Dollar Index
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. It is suggested to be traded higher in short-term within the channel towards the target of resistance level at 98.35.
Resistance level: 98.35, 99.65
Support level: 97.10, 95.30
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following previous retracement from a high of 1.3045 while currently testing at the support level of 1.2795. With regards to MACD histogram which illustrates significant downward signal and momentum, a closure below the level of 1.2795 would suggest GBPUSD to extend its downward momentum.
Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3180
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2640
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY remained traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing near the bottom level of the triangle. Recent closure above the 60-moving average line (green) suggests USDJPY to be traded higher in short-term, towards the target of resistance level at 112.15.
Resistance level: 112.15, 113.40
Support level: 110.60, 108.10
EURUSD
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.1260. MACD histogram begins to illustrate downward signal suggests EURUSD to extend its downward momentum after breaking the support level of 1.1145.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1365
Support level: 1.0975, 1.0850
GOLD
GOLD_, Daily: Gold price has recently breakout from the top level of narrowing triangle, signaling a change in trend direction to move further upwards. MACD histogram which illustrate significant upward signal and momentum suggests gold price to move further upwards after breaking the resistance level of 1273.70
Resistance level: 1273.70, 1295.15
Support level: 1244.85, 1216.00
Crude Oil
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel following prior retracement from the top level. With regards to the upward signal and momentum which begins to subside, crude oil price is expected to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 60-moving average line (green).
Resistance level: 50.00, 52.00
Support level: 48.45, 47.00