GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

180920 Afternoon Session Analysis

18 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Yen retreats following CPI data.

During late Asian session, the safe-haven Yen which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have retreat from its gains following downbeat Japan CPI. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan’s National CPI have fell to 0.2%, lower than market expectation. Following the weak data, the Japanese Yen have since gave up some of its gains. However, due to another recent batch of weak data from the U.S and policy decision from Fed, further losses for the safe-haven Yen may be limited. At Wednesday’s policy meeting, the Fed pledged to keep rates near zero until the labor market reaches “maximum employment” and inflation is on track to “moderately exceed” the 2% target, with most policymakers seeing rates on hold through at least 2023. On data front, U.S. jobless claims remained elevated at 860,000, while both housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed business index fell. At the time of writing, USD/JPY rose 0.09% to 104.83.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price extend gains and rose 0.06% to $41.21 per barrel as of writing following Saudi Minister warned traders not to gamble against the alliance. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman who decides on the energy policy of the world’s most influential oil producing country stated that he will make the oil market jumpy and warned to whoever gamble on the oil market will experience pain. On top of that, Prince Salman also sought to assure that all members within the OPEC will make up for production quotas. On the other hand, gold price gains 0.39% a troy ounce to $1951.30 at the time of writing amid weakening dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (Aug) 0.7% 3.6%
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.5% 15.7%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the dollar to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 92.05.

 

Resistance level: 93.85, 95.70

Support level: 92.05, 90.70

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3005. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 1.2810.

 

Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3165

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2660

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1875. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1875.

 

Resistance level: 1.1875, 1.1965

Support level: 1.1775, 1.1700

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 104.35.. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 105.20.

 

Resistance level: 105.20, 106.20

Support level: 104.35, 103.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7295. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7385.

 

Resistance level: 0.7385, 0.7460

Support level: 0.7295, 0.7200

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6775. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 0.6775.

 

Resistance level: 0.6775, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6685, 0.6595

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3230. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3115.

 

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3330

Support level: 1.3115, 1.2995

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9125. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.8985.

 

Resistance level: 0.9125, 0.9225

Support level: 0.8985, 0.8880

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 41.35. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 39.00.

 

Resistance level: 41.35, 43.95

Support level: 39.00, 36.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1970.55.

 

Resistance level: 1970.55, 2016.10

Support level: 1908.55, 1857.95

180920 Morning Session Analysis

18 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Pound sterling jumps as central bank sounded hawkish.

Pound sterling rebounds from its session low on yesterday after Bank of England (BoE) announced their verdict with regards to monetary policy. BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.10% and asset purchase target at £745 billion. They also hinted that they would stand ready to “adjust” monetary policy whenever necessary in order to support their economic recovery. The central bank also pointed out that recent UK economic data supports for the need of its current monetary policy setting. Despite higher expectation towards a faster pace of economic recovery, the central bank left the door open for negative interest rates as well as additional policy measures in order to keep the economy on track in the event of a second wave of coronavirus. However, gains on the pound sterling were limited while investors continue to monitor Brexit negotiation in between UK and EU. Investors fear that UK’s failure to secure a trade deal with EU before Brexit deadline may led to economic shock that could jeopardize pose a threat to both countries. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.02% to 1.2974 while the dollar index was down by 0.32% to 92.86.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.02% to $41.00 per barrel. Oil future prices remained well supported after weather analyst detected two other storms in the southern Gulf of Mexico which could become a cyclone in the next 48 hours. This may prolong the closure of oil refineries along Gulf of Mexico and led to a lower oil supply in short-term. Gold price rose 0.08% to $1,945.53 a troy ounce due to weaker US dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (Aug) 0.7% 3.6%
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.5% 15.7%

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to extend its losses towards the direction of 92.75.

 

Resistance level: 93.00, 93.10

Support level: 92.75, 92.50

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing 1.2985. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3030

Support level: 1.2930, 1.2875

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1900, 1.1995

Support level: 1.1840, 1.1800

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. Diminishing downward momentum from MACD suggests the pair to experience technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 104.80, 105.30

Support level: 104.50, 104.20

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7330, 0.7340

Support level: 0.7300, 0.7275

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6785.

 

Resistance level: 0.6785, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6510

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3155. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3155, 1.3195

Support level: 1.3125, 1.3095

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9110, 0.9145

Support level: 0.9050, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at 41.30. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up after closing above 41.30.

 

Resistance level: 41.30, 41.90

Support level: 40.70, 39.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1966.00, 1990.40

Support level: 1941.70, 1925.00

 

170920 Afternoon Session Analysis

17 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Japanese Yen remains steady following revision from BoJ.

During late Asian session, the Japanese Yen which traded against the greenback and other currency pairs have gained as Bank of Japan’s decision to revise the economic assessment higher have manage to draw bid for the safe-haven currency. The central bank stated that the economy is in a severe state but also shows signs of life and could soon see higher output and exports. The statement added that consumption is gradually picking up; however, the consumer price index is likely to hover in the negative territory for the time being. Following BoJ’s positive comment on exports and output, the safe-haven Yen receive bid from the market. However, due to recent upbeat assessment from Fed, further potential gains may be limited. At the time of writing, USD/JPY slips 0.05% to 105.05.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price retreats 0.62% to $39.90 per barrel as of writing amid ongoing fuel demand concerns. Hurricane Sally, the second hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico area in less than a month, making landfall on Wednesday. After the storm, company crew are slowly returning to offshore oil platform but almost 500,000 barrels was shut down. At the same time, market concerns remain high over EIA report of increase in 3.461 million in stockpiles which is 6 times higher, thus exert some pressure for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.99% to $1939.67 a troy ounce at the time of writing due to dollar strength boosted by positive Fed outlook.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

12:30                  JPY                      BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

15:00                  JPY                      BoJ Press Conference

19:00                  GBP                    BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Aug) -0.2% -0.2%
19:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 0.10% 0.10%
20:30 USD – Building Permits (Aug) 1.510M 1.483M
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 850K 884K
20:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 15.5 17.2

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 93.60, 94.50

Support level: 92.75, 91.75

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2905. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3140

Support level: 1.2790, 1.2675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1750. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1810, 1.1885

Support level: 1.1750, 1.1695

 

USDJPY, H4 : USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 105.25. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 105.25, 106.15

Support level: 104.30, 103.15

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7275. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7240.

 

Resistance level: 0.7275, 0.7300

Support level: 0.7240, 0.7210

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6685, 0.6640

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3235. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9135. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9135, 0.9185

Support level: 0.9075, 0.9020

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 39.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 40.50, 41.55

Support level: 39.75, 38.80

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1938.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1953.90, 1970.60

Support level: 1938.20, 1922.00

 

 

 

170920 Morning Session Analysis

17 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Fed to maintain low interest rate until inflation rebounds.

As widely expected, US Federal Reserve maintained their benchmark rate at 0.25% during policy meeting earlier this morning. However, Fed made a bold new promise: to keep interest rate low for a longer period of time until inflation is right on track to “moderately exceed” central bank’s target of 2% “for some time”. A shift in their tone marks adherence to their new guidance introduced last month which aimed to offset years of weak inflation and allow the economy to keep adding job for as long as possible. During press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterates that monetary policy would remain highly accommodative until the economy is far beyond its recovery phase. However, Powell noted that the ongoing pace of economic recovery is expected to be slow and it requires continuous support from the Fed as well as further government spending. In addition, Fed has also upgraded its quarterly economic projections whereby GDP, unemployment and inflation forecasts receives positive revision as compared to June forecasts. Reacting to the hawkish sentiment with regards to future economic momentum, the dollar index rose 0.06% to 93.07.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.22% to $40.26 per barrel. According to Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks for last week was down by -4.389 million barrels, significantly better than forecast of 1.271 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.02% to $1,959.56 a troy ounce due to strong greenback.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                   Market                 Event

12:30                  JPY                      BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

15:00                  JPY                      BoJ Press Conference

19:00                  GBP                    BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Aug) -0.2% -0.2%
19:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) 0.10% 0.10%
20:30 USD – Building Permits (Aug) 1.510M 1.483M
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 850K 884K
20:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 15.5 17.2

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains in mid-term.

 

Resistance level: 93.10, 93.35

Support level: 93.00, 92.75

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3030

Support level: 1.2930, 1.2825

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at 1.1800. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1835, 1.1895

Support level: 1.1800, 1.1760

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY as traded higher following prior rebound from 104.80. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to experience short-term technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 105.30, 105.60

Support level: 104.80, 104.50

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7330, 0.7365

Support level: 0.7300, 0.7275

 

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6760

Support level: 0.6715, 0.6695

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded flat in between 1.3155 and 1.3195. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.

 

Resistance level: 1.3195, 1.3225

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3125

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.9110.

 

Resistance level: 0.9110, 0.9145

Support level: 0.9050, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend its gains after closing above 40.70.

 

Resistance level: 40.70, 41.90

Support level: 39.85, 39.00

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1966.00, 1990.40

Support level: 1941.70, 1911.55

 

160920 Afternoon Session Analysis

16 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound surged amid upbeat data.

Pound Sterling surged over the backdrop of the upbeat economic data from the UK region yesterday. According to Office for National Statistics, the U.K. Average Earning index + Bonus increased from the previous reading of -1.2% to -1.0%, confounding market forecast for a reading of up to -1.3%. Similarly, the U.K. Claimant Count Change came in at 73.7, which fared better than the economist forecast at 100.0K. As both data fared better than expectation, which dialled up the market optimism toward the strong pace economic recovery in the United Kingdom while insinuating market demand on the Pound Sterling. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the Pound Sterling was limited amid uncertainty over the Brexit issues continue to linger in the UK financial market. If both parties failed to achieve consensus with regards of the post-Brexit deal, UK will automatically drop out of the EU’s main trading arrangements. In fact, tariffs and border checks would be applied to UK goods travelling to EU, which spurring negative prospect toward the economic progression in UK. Nonetheless, as for now investors would continue to scrutinize the latest development with regards of the Brexit issues in order to gauge the likelihood movement for the currency. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated by 0.14% to 1.2901.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 1.15% to $39.05 per troy ounces as of writing. The oil market edged higher as a hurricane had continue to disrupt the U.S. offshore oil and gas production on yesterday. More than 25% of U.S. offshore oil and gas output was shut on Tuesday as Hurricane Sally sat just off the U.S. Gulf Coast. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.20% to $1957.50 per troy ounces while market participants would focus on the FOMC meeting tonight in order to receive further trading signals.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

02:00 (16th)       USD                    FOMC Economic Projections

02:00                  USD                    FOMC Statement

02:30                  USD                    FOMC Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Aug) 0.1% 1.0%
20:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.8% 1.9%
20:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.0% 1.2%
20:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.1%
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 1.271M 2.032M
02:00

(16th)

USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower currently near the support level at 92.95. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 93.30, 93.75

Support level: 92.95, 92.50

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2910. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.3005

Support level: 1.2790, 1.2675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1835. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1890, 1.1945

Support level: 1.1835, 1.1775

 

USDJPY, Daily : USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 105.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.20, 104.15

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 0.7340. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7340, 0.7410

Support level: 0.7265, 0.7205

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6755.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6850

Support level: 0.6685, 0.6640

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 1.3145. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded within a range while currently testing the support level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9125, 0.9185

Support level: 0.9075, 0.9020

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 39.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 39.75.

 

Resistance level: 39.75, 40.50

Support level: 38.80, 38.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level t 1967.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1938.20.

 

Resistance level: 1967.05, 1988.20

Support level: 1938.20, 1917.30

160920 Morning Session Analysis

16 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

 

WTO: US violated global trade rules with tariffs on China.

US dollar was traded flat around 93.06 while investors continue to digest the latest verdict from World Trade Organization (WTO) upon the United States. According to WTO, US has violated global trade rules after it imposed tariffs upon Chinese goods in 2018. Prior, Washington has imposed levies of more than $400 billion goods worth of exports from China due to allegations upon intellectual property. According to the extensive evidence submitted by the US, Washington accuses China of intellectual property theft and forced transfer of technology access for US firms whom wishes to operate in the market. On the other hand, China claimed that the tariffs enacted has violated WTO’s treatment provision as the measures failed to provide the same treatment for all member countries of WTO. Likewise, China also alleged that the duties broke key dispute-settlement rule that requires all countries to first seek recourse from WTO before imposing retaliatory measures. While the verdict sided towards Beijing, Washington can effectively veto the decision by lodging an appeal any point in the next 60 days. Such verdict from the WTO has little impact upon US enacted tariffs upon China but it could substantially increase the tension between both countries.

 

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.26% to $38.38 following bullish data from this morning. According to American Petroleum Institute, crude oil stocks for last week was down by -9.517 million barrels. For the time being, investors will wait for official data from Energy Information Administration bound to be released by tonight for more market signal. On the other hand, gold price was traded flat around $1,953.89 a troy ounce while market participants wait for more signals from the global market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                  Market                Event

02:00 (16th)       USD                    FOMC Economic Projections

02:00                  USD                    FOMC Statement

02:30                  USD                    FOMC Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Aug) 0.1% 1.0%
20:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.8% 1.9%
20:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.0% 1.2%
20:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.1%
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 1.271M 2.032M
02:00

(16th)

USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after breaking the downward trendline.

 

Resistance level: 93.10, 93.35

Support level: 93.00, 92.75

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher level. MACD which illustrate negative divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.2985

Support level: 1.2830, 1.2760

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 1.1835.

 

Resistance level: 1.1895, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1835, 1.1760

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing 105.30. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 105.60, 105.95

Support level: 105.30, 104.80

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7300, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7275, 0.7240

 

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6715, 0.6745

Support level: 0.6695, 0.6670

 

USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of upward channel.

 

Resistance level: 1.3195, 1.3225

Support level: 1.3155, 1.3125

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9110, 0.9145

Support level: 0.9050, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend upwards after closing above 39.00.

 

Resistance level: 39.00, 39.85

Support level: 37.95, 37.00

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend further downwards in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1966.00, 1990.40

Support level: 1941.70, 1911.55

150920 Afternoon Session Analysis

15 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar soft on vaccine hopes and deal.

The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have dipped following hopes for vaccine and deals from big corporate help improve market appetite. Following latest development on vaccine, AstraZeneca have resumes its COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials in U.K which is currency one of the most advanced in development. Besides that, other pharmaceutical company such Pfizer Inc and BioNTech Se also proposed to expand their Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trials. On top of that, market confidence also lifted by several multi-billion deals from major companies such as Nvidia. Nvidia is reported to acquire the UK-based computer chip designer Arm Holdings with the deal worth $40 billion while China’s ByteDance Tik Tok also purchased by Oracle. At the time of writing, dollar index slips 0.06% to 92.92.

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains weak and inched lower 0.07% to $37.57 per barrel as of writing amid bleak demand outlook. Following latest report, major oil industry producers and traders are now forecasting a bleak future for global fuel demand due to ongoing coronavirus. Meanwhile, OPEC also downgrading its oil demand forecast on Monday. On the other hand, gold price slow regain its value and rose 0.41% to $1964.62 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid weakening dollar spurred demand for the commodity.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jul) -1.2% -1.3%
14:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Aug) 94.4K 100.0K
17:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) 71.5 69.8
04:30

(16th)

CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 2.9700M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 92.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 93.30, 93.75

Support level: 92.85, 92.55

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2890. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2890, 1.3005

Support level: 1.2790, 1.2675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 1.1895. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1895, 1.1945

Support level: 1.1805, 1.1750

 

USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 105.60. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 105.95, 106.30

Support level: 106.60, 105.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7265. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7340.

 

Resistance level: 0.7340, 0.7410

Support level: 0.7265, 0.7205

 

NZDUSD, Weekly: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6755. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6510, 0.6265

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3225, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9070. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9125, 0.9185

Support level: 0.9070, 0.9020

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 38.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 37.00.

 

Resistance level: 38.05, 38.80

Support level: 37.00, 36.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1963.15. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1963.15, 1988.20

Support level: 1937.75, 1917.30

 

150920 Morning Session Analysis

15 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Pound steadied following Johnson won in the key Brexit vote. 

Pound sterling which acts as the a major currency in FX market managed to hold its ground after UK Prime Minister won an initial Parliamentary vote to violate the Brexit deal with European Union. Earlier today, the plan of Boris Johnson to breach the Brexit treaty was supported by the majority of the parliamentary members with 340 against 263 votes. This so called Johnson’s bill is perceived as a threat by EU, where it might collapse the trade talks and urge a messy Brexit at the end. However, Boris Johnson disagreed with EU statement while emphasizing that the bill was essential to counter the unfair treatment from EU such as trade barrier between Britain and Northern Ireland and imposed a food blockade. In order to strive for a better future, UK have to remain its hard stance in negotiating the deal with EU, while showing no tolerance toward the EU party. Prior to now, both parties reiterated that they must achieve a deal before the month of October and that if not, no deal Brexit will has the highest probability to be faced by UK. As of writing, the pair of GBP/USD rose 0.04% to 1.2849.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounded by 0.30% to $37.35 per barrel after falling for more than 3% yesterday amid OPEC’s bearish outlook toward the future outlook of this black commodity market. According to CNBC, OPEC has slashed the forecast of oil demand growth for this year by 400K bpd as compare to the previous month’s estimate. Besides, gold price surged by 0.05% to $1956.50 per troy ounce amid resurgence of Covid-19 lifted up the favourability of safe haven asset such as gold.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jul) -1.2% -1.3%
14:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Aug) 94.4K 100.0K
17:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) 71.5 69.8
04:30

(16th)

CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 2.9700M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 93.25. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 92.60.

 

Resistance level: 93.25, 94.10

Support level: 92.60, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2840. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2840.

 

Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3255

Support level: 1.2840, 1.2715

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1840. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1890.

 

Resistance level: 1.1890, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1840, 1.1775

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the bottom level of the triangle. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the triangle’s bottom level.

 

Resistance level: 106.15, 106.95

Support level: 105.20, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7265.

 

Resistance level: 0.7330, 0.7405

Support level: 0.7265, 0.7205

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6615. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6755.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6835

Support level: 0.6615, 0.6535

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3140. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3235.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3030

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9050. MACD which illustrates diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9120.

 

Resistance level: 0.9120, 0.9200

Support level: 0.9050, 0.8970

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat near the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical correction toward the support level at 36.30.

 

Resistance level: 38.70, 40.30

Support level: 36.30, 34.20

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1926.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 2069.75.

 

Resistance level: 2069.75, 2147.50

Support level: 1926.40, 1761.65

140920 Afternoon Session Analysis

14 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Yen held steady following risk-off mood.

During late Asian session, the Japanese Yen which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs continue to maintain its ground and remain stable as worsening coronavirus and various geopolitical tension continue to weigh on the risk sentiment. On coronavirus front, the number of global coronavirus cases continue to skyrocket as WHO reported a total one-day increase of 307,930 in 24 hours. Some of the biggest increases were from India, U.S and Brazil. As the virus show no signs of easing, market fears remain high even with news of AstraZeneca restart its coronavirus vaccine trials was unable to support the market. On top of that, reports of Iran plotting to kill U.S ambassador also diminished further risk appetite in the market. According to reports from Politico, Iranian government is plotting an assassination attempt against the U.S ambassador to South Africa. The plot could dramatically increase the tension between U.S and Iran and triggered enormous pressure on Donald Trump to fight back. At the time of writing, USD/JPY slips 0.04% to 106.12.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 1.85% to $37.85 per barrel as of writing following news of another storm may disrupt production. According to reports, Tropical Storm Sally is gaining strength in the area and is forecasted to be a category 2 hurricane. The storm is expected to reach on Tuesday and may once again disrupt oil production. On the other hand, gold price soars 0.48% to $1949.53 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid geopolitical issues and coronavirus causing investors to shift their portfolio into safe-haven markets.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the dollar to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 92.05.

 

Resistance level: 94.00, 95.70

Support level: 92.05, 90.70

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.2810. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.3005.

 

Resistance level: 1.3005, 1.3165

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2660

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat near the MA lines. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.1775.

 

Resistance level: 1.1875, 1.1950

Support level: 1.1775, 1.1700

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 106.20. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering this market.

 

Resistance level: 106.20, 106.95

Support level: 105.20, 104.35

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7295. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.7200.

 

Resistance level: 0.7295, 0.7385

Support level: 0.7200, 0.7075

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6685. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6775

Support level: 0.6595, 0.6510

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3115.

 

Resistance level: 1.3230, 1.3330

Support level: 1.3115, 1.2995

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat near the MA lines. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 0.9125.

 

Resistance level: 0.9125, 0.9225

Support level: 0.8985, 0.8880

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 36.65. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggested the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 39.05.

 

Resistance level: 39.00, 41.35

Support level: 36.65, 34.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1970.55.

 

Resistance level: 1970.55, 2016.10

Support level: 1908.55, 1857.95

140920 Morning Session Analysis

14 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

Pound slumped over the Brexit chaos.

Pound Sterling slumped over the backdrop of the bleak economic data from the United Kingdom last Friday. According to Office for National Statistics, the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last month came in at only 6.6%, worse than the market forecast for a reading up to 6.7%, which dialled down the market optimism toward the economic progression from the UK region. Besides that, the Pound Sterling extend its losses amid the rising tensions between the European Union and UK over the Brexit issues. Lack of progress over the meeting between EU and UK on last week has left scant hopes on soft-Brexit. Indeed, major European Countries has stepped up planning for a “no-deal” Brexit after the Brexit transition period end on 31st December 2020. Nonetheless, the losses experienced by the Pound Sterling was limited following the UK Manufacturing Production had shown some improvement on last month. The Office for National Statistics reported that the reading for the U.K. Manufacturing Production came in at 6.3%, fared better than the economist forecast at 5.0%. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated by 0.05% to 1.2795.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 1.25% to $37.65 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged higher on last week following the U.S energy firms reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating. The U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, an early indicator of future oil output had fell by 2 to 254 in last week, according to Baker Hughes Co. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.09% to $1941.75 per troy ounces amid the fears over the coronavirus pandemic had spurred risk-off sentiment in the FX market while insinuating demand for the safe-haven commodity.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.30. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 93.30, 93.75

Support level: 92.90, 92.50

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2785. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2890, 1.3005

Support level: 1.2785, 1.2675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1805. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1875, 1.1945

Support level: 1.1805, 1.1750

 

USDJPY, Daily : USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 106.40. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.20, 104.15

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7265. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7340, 0.7410

Support level: 0.7265, 0.7205

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6730

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6595

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3225.

 

Resistance level: 1.3225, 1.3340

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3055

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently near the support level at 0.9075. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9125, 0.9185

Support level: 0.9075, 0.9020

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 37.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 38.05.

 

Resistance level: 38.05, 39.05

Support level: 37.00, 36.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1936.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1963.15, 1988.20

Support level: 1936.40, 1917.30

 

110920 Afternoon Session Analysis

11 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound sterling fell amid EU issued ultimatum.

During late Asian session, the pound sterling which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have records its biggest weekly drop in nearly six months and plummet as EU threatened to pursue legal against the UK on Brexit issue. According to the latest development, EU have demand the U.K to drop its internal market bill by the end of the month or facing risk of jeopardizing further negotiations and legal actions. The bill is likely to clash with key terms in the withdrawal agreement that requiring Northern Ireland to follow EU rules in the post Brexit and apply across the whole U.K including England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Cabinet minister Michael Gove insisted that U.K will stand firm and will not withdraw the bill. Following the worsening relation between U.K and E.U, hopes of Brexit deal are fading further, thus dragging on the pair heavily. At the time of writing, GBP/USD slips 0.09% to 1.2815.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains weak and edge lower 0.45% to $37.29 per barrel as of writing amid ongoing pressure from weak demand outlook and increasing supply. As EIA reports an unexpected increase of 2 million barrel in supply, the black commodity was added further losses. On top of that, reports of onshore storage are nearing full capacity which reflect supplies have outpace demand also weighing heavily on the commodity. On the other hand, gold price slips 0.03% to $1945.40 amid dollar gains.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – GDP(MoM) 8.7% 6.7%
14:00 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM)(Jul) 11.0% 5.0%
20:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM)(Aug) 0.6% 0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 93.30. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 93.30, 93.75

Support level: 92.95, 92.50

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2790. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2890, 1.3005

Support level: 1.2790, 1.2675

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1805. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1875, 1.1945

Support level: 1.1805, 1.1750

 

USDJPY, Daily : USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 106.40. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.20, 104.15

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7285. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7285, 0.7340

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7150

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6640. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6755

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6595

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3225.

 

Resistance level: 1.3225, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9125.

 

Resistance level: 0.9125, 0.9185

Support level: 0.9075, 0.9020

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded within a range while currently testing the support level at 37.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 38.05, 38.80

Support level: 37.00, 36.10

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1937.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1963.15, 1976.70

Support level: 1937.75, 1924.20

 

110920 Morning Session Analysis

11 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Euro skyrocketed following ECB interest rate decision.

The European Union single currency – Euro managed to extend its gains after ECB unleashed their neutral stance in their latest monetary policy decision. At the yesterday ECB meeting, the board members of ECB generally decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.00% while will keep it low until they see a strong recovery in the economy’s underlying inflation dynamics. Moreover, the pandemic emergency of purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1350 billion will still be carried on in order to limit the downside impact of pandemic while supporting the economy back to the correct or normal path of inflation. Other than that, ECB also emphasized that ample liquidity tools will continued be ready, such as the refinancing tool of (TLTRO III) in order to provide sufficient loan for household and businesses. However, President of ECB Christine Lagarde revealed that they will ‘carefully monitor’ the recent appreciation of euro, but they will not overreact to it and not targeting FX rate now. Despite, the gains of EUR/USD limited as upbeat inflation linked data from US slashed the appeal of this pair of currency. During Asian early trading session, the pair of EUR/USD surged 0.10% to 1.1825.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.62% to $37.25 per barrel after sliding for more than 3% yesterday amid downbeat inventory data. According to the EIA, US Crude Oil Inventories data came in at 2.032M, higher than the economist forecast of -1.335M, indicating a surprise build in US stockpiles and thus dragged down the appeal of this black commodity market. Besides, gold price dropped 0.02% to $1946.00 per troy ounce amid positive economic data from US dampened the risk-avoidance of market participants.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – GDP(MoM) 8.7% 6.7%
14:00 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM)(Jul) 11.0% 5.0%
20:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM)(Aug) 0.6% 0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 93.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 94.10.

 

Resistance level: 94.10, 94.90

Support level: 93.25, 92.60

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2840. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2840.

 

Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3255

Support level: 1.2840, 1.2715

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1840. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1775.

 

Resistance level: 1.1840, 1.1890

Support level: 1.1775, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the triangle’s top level. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

 

Resistance level: 106.15, 106.95

Support level: 105.20, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7265. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7205.

 

Resistance level: 0.7265, 0.7330

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7150

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6615. However, MACD which illustrated bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the support level at 0.6615.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6835

Support level: 0.6615, 0.6535

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3140. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3235.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3030

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9050. MACD which illustrates diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9120.

 

Resistance level: 0.9120, 0.9200

Support level: 0.9050, 0.8970

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 37.65. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 35.55.

 

Resistance level: 37.65, 38.70

Support level: 35.55, 34.20

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1926.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 2069.75.

 

Resistance level: 2069.75, 2147.50

Support level: 1926.40, 1761.65

100920 Afternoon Session Analysis

10 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro rose following positive ECB forecast.

During late Asian session, the Euro which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have soared following positive economic outlook from ECB forecast. According to Bloomberg, some European Central Bank policy makers have become more confident in their forecasts for the region’s economic recovery, potentially reducing the need for more monetary stimulus this year. Based on statement from Euro officials that is familiar with the discussion, the latest projections for output and inflation will only show slight changes to the June outlook. The report provide some relief and showered that the downside risks that the ECB previously mentioned in the previous round of forecast so far haven’t been materialized, thus boosting the appeal for the Euro. Meanwhile, investors will now focus on upcoming ECB meeting to attain further signal. At the time of writing, EUR/USD rose 0.15% to 1.1818.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slips 0.24% to $37.79 per barrel as of writing following uncertainty in demand recovery. Following with the increasing coronavirus cases around the world and increase in inventory reported by API, worries over fuel demand remains high which currency continue to weigh on the black commodity. Adding further selling pressure was the news about leading commodity trades are now booking tankers to store crude oil on water which signal supply outpaced consumption. On the other hand, gold price gains 0.09% to $1946.60 a troy ounce at the time of writing following risk-off mood continue to support the safe-haven market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:45                  EUR                    ECB Monetary Policy Statement

20:30                  EUR                    ECB Press Conference

01:00                  EUR                    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

(11th)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
19:45 EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) -0.50% -0.50%
19:45 EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25%
19:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 881K 846K
23:00 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -9.362M -1.335M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 93.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 93.15, 93.60

Support level: 92.85, 92.65

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3020 MACD Which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3145

Support level: 1.2880, 1.2750

 

EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 1.1845. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1845, 1.1895

Support level: 1.1755, 1.1695

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 106.40. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.35

Support level: 105.20, 104.15

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.7280. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7340

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7150

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6690. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6755

Support level: 0.6640, 0.6595

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3140. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3225, 1.3350

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9120. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9120, 0.9150

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9075

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 36.10. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 43.05.

 

Resistance level: 43.05, 47.90

Support level: 36.10, 29.15

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1951.75. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1951.75, 1987.30

Support level: 1911.55, 1882.65

100920 Morning Session Analysis

10 September 2020                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Canadian dollar spiked amid positive economic outlook from BoC.

Canadian dollar which broadly known as oil’s currency surged significantly amid Bank of Canada hawkish stance with regards to the economy future outlook. Yesterday, BoC unanimously voted to maintain its interest rate at effective lower bound of 0.25% which in line with the market expectation. Besides, BoC also revealed that they will continues their quantitative easing program (QE) until a strong recovery reflected on the Canada’s economy. In detail, BoC’s scale purchase of government bond in their QE program will still stick to $5 billion per week. Nonetheless, BoC sees that the economy are shifting from reopening to recuperation, as household spending rebounded sharply over the summer season while the employment rate increased. Therefore, it also means that the nation’s economy may require extraordinary monetary policy to support the pace of recuperation at the meantime. Therefore, BoC said that they will maintain their unfolding monetary policy until economic slack fully been absorbed so that 2% of economic inflation target is sustainably to achieve. As of now, the pair of USD/CAD rose 0.07% to 1.3150.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciated 0.47% to $37.85 per barrel as unexpected inventory build in US dragged down the appeal of this black commodity market. According to the API, US weekly Crude Oil Stock grew by 2.970M, higher than the previous reading of -6.360M barrel. Besides, gold price appreciated 0.04% to $1947.45 a troy ounce amid increasing of market’s risk avoidance behaviour.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

19:45                  EUR                    ECB Monetary Policy Statement

20:30                  EUR                    ECB Press Conference

01:00                  EUR                    ECB President Lagarde Speaks

(11th)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
19:45 EUR – Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) -0.50% -0.50%
19:45 EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25%
19:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 881K 846K
23:00 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -9.362M -1.335M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 93.25. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 92.60.

 

Resistance level: 93.25, 94.10

Support level: 92.60, 92.10

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3045. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2840.

 

Resistance level: 1.3045, 1.3255

Support level: 1.2840, 1.2715

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound form the support level at 1.1775. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1840.

 

Resistance level: 1.1840, 1.1890

Support level: 1.1775, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the triangle’s top level. MACD which illustrates bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the top level of triangle.

 

Resistance level: 106.15, 106.95

Support level: 105.20, 104.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7265. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7330.

 

Resistance level: 0.7330, 0.7405

Support level: 0.7265, 0.7205

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6615. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6755.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6835

Support level: 0.6615, 0.6535

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3140. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3315

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3030

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9120. MACD which illustrates bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.9120.

 

Resistance level: 0.9200, 0.9295

Support level: 0.9120, 0.9050

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 37.65. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to undergo technical rebound in short term.

 

Resistance level: 38.70, 40.30

Support level: 35.65, 34.25

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1926.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 2069.75.

 

Resistance level: 2069.75, 2147.50

Support level: 1926.40, 1761.65

090920 Afternoon Session Analysis

09 September 2020                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie hold steady amid upbeat data.

During late Asian session, the Aussie dollar which traded against the dollar and other currency pairs have pick up some bids after the recent release of China CPI. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China CPI (CPI) reached market expectation of 2.4% in August while PPI also eased from -2.4% to -2.0%. At the same time, positive data from Australia also provide further boost for the pair. Australia’s Home Loans have surged to 10.7%, surpassed market forecast of 3.1% in July. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence for September also reversed from previous reading of -9.5% to +18%. Following the upbeat data, the Aussie manage to hold its ground above 0.7200 mark and limit its previous losses. At the time of writing, AUD/USD rose 0.08% to 0.7190 at the time of writing.

In the commodities market, crude oil price extend losses and plunged 1.28% to $36.24 per barrel as of writing amid heightening concerns over second wave coronavirus. As of now, the biggest global health crisis continue to flare up with cases continue to increase in India, UK, Spain and several parts of U.S. The worsening outbreak have impact the outlook for fuel demand, thus dragging the crude price further. On the other hand, gold price edge up 0.05% to $1929.75 a troy ounce at the time of writing following risk-aversion mood remain supported by ongoing coronavirus crisis.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     CrudeOIL                               EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

22:00                     CAD                                        BoC Rate Statement

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) 5.889M 6.000M
22:00 CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
04:30

(10th)

CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.360M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 93.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 93.80, 94.55

Support level: 93.00, 92.20

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3020. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3145

Support level: 1.2880, 1.2750

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1765. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1860, 1.1940

Support level: 1.1765, 1.1705

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 106.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 105.20.

 

Resistance level: 106.40, 107.95

Support level: 105.20, 104.15

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7195. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7250.

 

Resistance level: 0.7250, 0.7305

Support level: 0.7195, 0.7140

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6650.

 

Resistance level: 0.6650, 0.6690

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6510

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3235. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3140, 1.3045

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9180. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9225

Support level: 0.9120, 0.9050

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 36.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 43.00, 47.95

Support level: 36.00, 29.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1911.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1951.75.

 

Resistance level: 1951.75, 1987.30

Support level: 1911.55, 1882.65